DrumBeat: December 19, 2006
Posted by threadbot on December 19, 2006 - 9:55am
Wood Boilers Cut Heating Bills. The Rub? Secondhand Smoke.
Their owners proudly proclaim that they reduce dependence on foreign oil — and save thousands of dollars on heating bills each year.Neighbors say that they create smoke so thick that children cannot play outside, and that it seeps into homes, irritating eyes and throats and leaving a foul stench.
They have spawned a rash of lawsuits and local ordinances across the country. A report last year by the New York attorney general’s office found that they produce as much particle pollution in an hour as 45 cars or 2 heavy-duty diesel trucks.
Merger of Statoil, Hydro to Plant Large GOM Footprint
The merger of Norway's Statoil ASA and Norsk Hydro ASA will create not only the world's largest offshore oil and gas company, but an acquisitive-minded player that is expected to wield a much bigger stick in developing the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (GOM), analysts said Monday. In the past two years, the companies have spent a total of about $6 billion buying GOM assets.
Misguided assault on autos won't solve energy crisis
Blaming the auto industry for all things related to global climate change is the thing to do these days, but it's misguided, especially when it targets the failed Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) guidelines. And it ignores other industries, which do their share of dirtying up the atmosphere.
Some Texas business leaders are projecting a shortfall in the state's energy supply as early as 2008 unless Texas invests in new generation capacity to support record population growth.
James Kunstler gets in the Christmas spirit (well, not really): Not So Wonderful
It's a Wonderful Life, Frank Capra's 1946 Christmas card to America, is full of strange and bitter lessons about who we were and who we have become. It also illustrates the perversity of history -- the fact that things sometimes end up the opposite of the way we expect.
Raymond J. Learsy: Saudi Realpolitik: Political Blackmail, Oil Price Extortion
If so it would be an exercise of blatant political blackmail threatening the American government with the following Hobson's choice:A- Either you continue your presence in Iraq at the cost of the lives your soldiers, and at the cost of billions and billions in treasure, or
B- We the Saudis, will initiate policies that will all but guarantee a massive riposte by Iran and the descent of the region into a conflagration of war and savagery. It will certainly result in impaired access to, or possibly even destruction of the regions oil and gas infrastructure and push the world's economies into deep crisis.
EU risks mini-repetition of last winter's gas crunch
BRUSSELS – With EU gas transit state Belarus and Russia locked in a bitter row over energy prices for next year, some north and eastern EU states risk seeing a mini-repetition of last winter's Ukraine gas crunch.
Japan banks on energy, environment
TOKYO - The government-affiliated Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), one of the world's biggest international financial institutions, is revving up its energy- and environment-related business activities, apparently reflecting growing government concerns over energy supplies and global warming.
Biofuel majors: Will exports be profitable enough?
SINGAPORE: Mergers in the booming palm oil sector are creating the biofuel industry's own 'Big Oil' companies, but vertical integration and economies of scale may not be enough to make exports profitable or to replace crude.
Westinghouse deal kicks off Chinese nuclear energy drive
BEIJING (AFP) - China's decision to buy four nuclear power reactors from US-based Westinghouse represents a major step in an ambitious drive to boost atomic energy production.
Gulf energy industry leaders call to protect marine environment
Peak Debt - US Debt & GDP Growth
Economics I am no expert on Peak Oil, but Peak Oil is not the urgent problem that the world faces, economically, or politically. The problems of the supply-demand of oil will play out over a longer period and its effects would be spread over a longer period of time than that of the Peak Debt, which are lot more immediate. As a matter of fact, it has been the rapidly rising debt (racing towards the peak), which in turn has "fueled" a worldwide construction boom, that has resulted in the high prices for oil over the past 4 years and not the realization of the problem of Peak Oil. During the coming global depression, within this decade, the price of crude oil should fall below $25 a barrel and there will be glut due to sharply falling demand. I realize that these are not the concerns that people have today as long as the American consumer keeps borrowing. But, for how long?
Big Oil seeks to burnish U.S. image in 2007
WASHINGTON - The U.S. oil industry will launch a multiyear, multimillion-dollar public relations push early in 2007 aimed at bolstering its sagging image.
Japan: Closing the biofuel gap
Japan is lagging behind several other countries in developing liquid biofuels that serve as alternatives for fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas.
China looking to expand non-grain biofuels
BEIJING (AFP) - China has launched a series of pilot programs for farmers to plant non-grain crops as raw materials for biofuels, state media has reported, citing a senior government official.Sorghum, cassava and other biofuel crops will be planted on lands that are unfit for grain production, the China Daily quoted Yang Jian, a director at the ministry as saying.
India: Promoting renewable energy
NEW DELHI: To promote use of renewable energy, the Delhi Cabinet on Monday approved a scheme for grant of rebate amounting to Rs. 6,000 on installation of Solar Water Heating Systems replacing electric geysers at residences.
Iran Will Face Sanctions Vote Within Days, U.S. Says
Global warming is good for Russia
According to the United States Geological Service, about one-quarter of the world’s undiscovered energy reserves may be in the Arctic. Earlier this year Russia announced a project to exploit the world’s biggest offshore gas field, Shtokman, 300 miles off its northern coast. Russia had been expected to pick partners from among the world’s big energy companies, but instead it let Gazprom, its energy giant, go it alone....However the sea is divided up, warming is likely to make Russia richer rather than poorer. Which may help explain the reluctance of some Russian members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the body charged by the UN with establishing the facts on climate change, to accept that global warming is a problem that needs to be dealt with.
EU trade chief dismisses idea of punitive "carbon tax"
BRUSSELS - EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson opposed the idea of a "carbon tax" on countries which do not ratify the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, as France recently suggested.
Group offers roadmap to reduce pollution
ROCKPORT, Maine - A regional environmental group Monday released a comprehensive "climate change roadmap" to reduce pollution linked to global warming by 75 percent in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada.
Green light for world's biggest windfarm
Algeria strives for oil security
CAIRO, Egypt - Despite a recent attack on foreign oil workers in Algiers, and a government that is struggling after a civil war in the 1990s, world demand for oil and natural gas will likely drive foreign companies to endure risks and remain in energy-rich Algeria.
"You have two powers competing over the same sandbox," said Gal Luft, a China expert with the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington. "As a country of China's size grows, there will be a moment when the moment of reckoning comes."China's energy diplomacy poses an utterly new challenge to the U.S.: a rival that is growing in stature not by seeking to undo the American rules of the game, but by playing the game more and more like Americans.
Russia may be thankful to OPEC
The crucial thing for Russia, the bulk of whose revenues come from oil exports, is that oil prices should not fall below $60 per barrel. The Russian budget for 2007 is based on an optimistic forecast for Russian export crude, $61 per barrel. However, its actual price has been no more than $56-$57since autumn, as its quality is believed to be inferior to that of the world's leading brands.
Nigerian militants strike oil properties
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - Militants seeking a greater share of oil revenues for their impoverished region detonated two car bombs nearly simultaneously Monday in southern Nigeria, the latest in a series of attacks that have cut crude production in Africa's oil giant by one quarter.
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Airlines Toss Enough Cans Each Year to Build Fleet of Airliners
I think in general we have a lot of room for easy improvement, as time goes on, and waste becomes a more pressing issue.
This seems to illustrate one of the deepest differences between America and where I live - no one would put up with such obviously stupid behavior, and no one cares the reason behind it either. It will take an incredibly broad breakdown in social order before people would consider burning plastic to keep warm, whereas in the U.S., to some at least, it seems a clever response since it burns hot and is cheap.
Nothing like creating toxic waste to keep warm - what a metaphor of the American Dream going up in smoke.
This still boggles my mind in some hard to define way - plastic is just disgusting to burn (to my nose, much worse than coal), apart from how nasty the byproducts may be (not being current on the plastics currently in use, it is a fair assumption). I guess tires are next in the good old U. S. of A. In Germany, burning too much paper or cardboard is considered socially unacceptable, since the amount of ash generated is noticeable for those living in the same area.
Which doesn't mean you are wrong - it was certainly striking at how very little had actually changed in 6 years in any real sense between U.S. visits, but such beliefs (if my statement is close enough to truth) imply a collapse of truly immense proportions, and quite honestly, I don't think the rest of the world will simply follow along that path.
Besides, burning plastic is something any lazy person can do - ripping up roads will require a level of fitness no longer common in the U.S.
I've also seen what people do to public infrastructure now, just for profit or out of random vandalism.
Then why not use that imagination to help solve the problems rather than to paint gloom and doom on every wall?
;-)
You know something Infinite, Peak oil IS the solution to most of the problems Mother Earth is suffering from.
Ron Patterson
Mother Nature Bats Last.
There was something about all the aluminum luggage carts in Sweden or some such place being stolen and sold for scrap.
And in China, people are falling through the street because hundreds of thousands of steel manhole covers have been stolen.
It's not just we rowdy Americans.
Some funny stuff you just can't make up.
Ever read the darwin awards? - often given post-mortem to those who do us a favor and remove themselves from the gene pool.
Other good reading are the Buller Lyton (sp?) awards for bad writing. some very good stuff...
D
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bulwer-Lytton,_1st_Baron_Lytton
Not half as bad a writer as all the jokes make him out to be! Pelham must have been a big influence on Dickens. The scenes from the wrong side of the tracks in London are quite vivid. Though of course they didn't have tracks in those days!
And it fits into a certain German tradition, stretching back to this incident - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hauptmann_von_K%C3%B6penick
Nonetheless, the 'scavenging' of infrastructure will certainly happen more into the future, no argument.
Of course, no one is stealing the huge number of bicycles left at the stations for steel or rubber yet - and I don't expect it to happen, if only because then some sort of security will be implemented - which already tends to exist at train stations here.
:-)
:-)
D
So, food and heat, a win-win for everybody. Free enterprise.
I'd imagine the land beneath the pavement would be dead as nails though for a few years.
This is one reason why older cities are better places to homestead. They didn't scrape off the topsoil in the old days. Plus, older cities are usually situated in the best spots (as far as soil, water, shelter, etc., go).
If we got too much of anything, it is probably agricultural area...
It's good to know my muscular buttocks will be in demand post-peak oil.
Wait that sounded really bad . . . .
The SAS emphasizes endurance and fitness - they find the ability to be able to cover 20 miles over a mountain range in less than a day much more important than the ability to lift something heavy a few times - after all, generally you aren't alone, you are with other people who can help with anything too heavy for one person.
But then, that is the British perspective - they were famous for their Navy, not for Hollywood Westerns portaying single figures facing down evil alone.
White man build big fire - stand way back.
With regards to our energy future we should do some trial and error. Maybe get a DOE grant or something.
Trial #1 Burning parked cars. - tires, some pavement(?), etc. and sell the scrap metal.
<test result questions>
Do Ford's burn better than Chevy's?
Diesel vrs. gas cars - which burns the most efficiently?
How many people can stay warm around a compact car vrs a full size suv?
Do red cars burn fatser than white ones? ;)
<:)
I suspect that CWT's thermochemical conversion process could turn waste plastic, algal fats and just about anything else into a very light, sweet synthetic oil plus gas (if it works with turkey fat, how could it not?). The gas product provides the process heat, and it would not surprise me if the liquid and gaseous effluents would be happily munched up by algae again to make more fats. This would give you a trash-to-fuel process which converts plastics and everything else into fuel, and recycles the carbon in the process-heat exhaust to more fuel. Odor-causing emissions would be trapped and made available to algae (possibly dealing with THAT problem), while the power would ultimately be supplied by sunlight.
I wonder how many acres of Fresh Kills that NYC would be willing to devote to covered algae greenhouses...
Who? Where? How many?
You do have a news source for this? I would like to read it.
Possibly like the 'journalist?' who drove by the fallow corn field and dashed off an article on 'massive fertilizer' and sterile soil.
When I was a kid the nasty old bastard next door (who wouldn't give my baseballs back when they went over into his yard) used to frequently burn all sorts of noxious stuff in this rusty old 55-gallon drum that he used as a burner. God, it smoked out the entire neighborhood and smelled awful. My father had a long running battle with this guy, and it once almost came to blows.
People will do what's convenient and will use what's at hand, particularly if they're poor. As an example, I know of a US chemical company that had a plant in Mexico. They received certain chlorinated solvents, dyes, and other toxic chemicals in plastic drums. They found that they had to cut the bottoms out of the empty drums before putting them out for disposal. Why? Because the local poor people were stealing the drums and using them to store drinking water in.
So, it doesn't surprise me in the least that certain people might not know better than to burn plastic. And even if they did know better, if it's a choice between keeping warm and possibly developing cancer 20 years hence, it's not hard to guess what the decision will be.
The smell of burning wood and plastic (and other trash) is noticeable on the air.
Who?
People breaking the 'no burning of TRASH laws?
Where?
In places where plastic can be mixed with 'the burning bag'
How many?
Why not get a goverment study to find out?
You do have a news source for this? I would like to read it.
And where ya going to find a news story where someone admits to breaking the 'don't burn rubbish' laws?
My mothers mother was wanting her garage warm so she could start her diesel car (bought when gas was expensive and diesel was cheap). She burned records, books, trash and plastic christmas decorations. She'd spent most of the money she had, so if it would burn to warm the garage, it was burned,
My parents have a 'paper burn bag' and sometimes plastic mylar bags or window envelopes go in that.
And I can smell the plastic sometimes where there is no wind and the smoke hangs in the air. Seems worse Dec 25th Dec 26th.
People in the 3rd world burn trash for heat/cooking. What makes you think that 'the poor' of the US of A won't do the same thing?
Possibly like the 'journalist?' who drove by the fallow corn field and dashed off an article on 'massive fertilizer' and sterile soil.
Naw, how about the people who talk how Hydrinos will save us all?
The problem with mining landfills at this point is that it will cause the release of large amounts of methane which can currently be captured and flared or even used for fuel. This would be a greenhouse gas problem. We're probably going to have to wait for the organic stuff to finish decaying first.
I'm so glad they care.
Masters of Trivia, Portland Press Herald
But you can't find that online!
at least there's a few gallons of that crap that noone has to drink. (I do drink that crap at the movies, but it's some peoples' bread and butter.. frightening!)
Here's a like to some text...
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6645711
Wholesale prices surge in November
Latest inflation report shows largest jump in over 30 years
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16280357/
Otherwise I would agree with Hothgor and say that inflation right now is not a problem.
Marco.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core rate rose 1.3 percent last month, the most since July 1980, after falling 0.9 percent last month, Bloomberg reported.
Wow, surely this must be inflation, right? Let's take a look.
Putting on our protective data sifting gloves, we find that objects in headlines may be farther away than they appear.
Much farther away.
Light trucks prices came in +13.7% over October's prices.
Cars were up 2.2%.
But if you strip out the transportation equipment category there was virtually NO producer pricing power last month.
In fact, the Core Intermediate Price Index actually FELL 0.3% last month. (See highlighted section below.)
The big problem with producer cost increases is that in order for them to become consumer inflation, the costs must be "passed through."
OK, so are businesses finally able to pass costs through to customers?
According to Bloomberg, Steel Dynamics (STLF) last week cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast after a greater-than- expected drop in selling prices for flat-rolled steel and fewer orders.
Lower prices also led Nucor (NUE) to reduce its profit forecast the same week.
And then there are the homebuilders.
Ok, but we're not a manufacturing based economy anymore. Surely service providers are where the real demand-led inflation will show up, right?
One would think. But according to the BLS, only commercial banking, securities brokerages, savings institutions, and television broadcasting received higher prices in November.
By contrast, lower prices were paid to the industries for lessors of nonresidential buildings (except miniwarehouses), couriers, investment banking and securities dealing, wired telecommunications carriers, general medical and surgical hospitals, and line-haul railroads.
Yes, Virginia, there IS stagflation.
And stagflation is simply the transition we are now living through, a transition from the recent cyclical upturn in inflation back to secular deflation.
Which way is the price index for core intermediate goods trending?
So if you don't take account of this I would say the price index should be flat. Oh i forgot - increased energy price to mine/produce will push it up also: both homegrown and imported. Double whammy.
My gues then UP?....
I want a gold star if I have this right....i'm just an engineer!
Marco.
My prediction is that the wholesale inflation is quickly going to get to the consumer level. Prices can't rise because buying power is surpressed when energy prices rise quickly. Potential profits and gains in efficiency are consumed by the higher cost of energy. Employees and other recipients of corporate profits (read buyers) don't have as much to spend in this environment. So everything costs more and almost everybody has less to spend. The big squeeze has started.
You may also add that in '69 many households only needed ONE wage earner working to bring home the groceries and pay for that gasolene.
Now, Both need to work to buy that "Same Price" gas and food.
Was at one of the electronics big-boxes over the weekend: a standard offer now is 0% interest untill 2009(!)on TV's over $500. The value of the merchandise is dropping 5-10% a month. Stores are willing to take a huge hit on financing to move inventory that they already have a contracted price for....
"The 2 percent rise in wholesale inflation followed four straight months of benign readings including outright big declines of 1.3 percent in September and 1.6 percent in October."
So lets see, just from September to November, prices are DOWN on a SIMPLE scale 0.9%. Congrats man. I'm shaking :P
Thai market slammed by investment rules
Government reverses investment rules after near 15 percent slump
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16279821/
I didn't want to post it up top, since it's not strictly energy-related, but I think this story is going to be very important economically.
Thailand Abandons Lockup on Foreign Stock Investments (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=allUv0Uay8hI&refer=home
IMF establishes beachhead, usually a capital city, in a third world country. They pump debt into economy, I mean credit, and the local city does wonderful. This creates social discourse due to the rising upper class that increasinly dominates ownership and limits expansion by those less well connected. In third world countries, there tends to be many rural people who do not benefit from this rising city and they begin to raise objections and in some cases, outright revolt and create a revolution.
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp
Emerging markets in general have been EXTREMELY risky this year which is why I pulled out of them in June and switched over to Developed European Funds (up 32% so far this year). I really is getting more difficult to find a place to park the 401K in a "sure bet".
If that wasn't true in 1976 why is it true now?
And yet you sit here and dispute that such nations could cause disastrous panics when it has already happened in the past? And when notable economists like Friedman and others have discussed the dangers of these situations?
Please tell me that you knew all this and that your entire line of questioning here was facetious.
Using such superficial analogies and assumptions, they seem forget the conditions that allowed us to cope with crises at those times may not be the same as the conditions we are facing globally This TimezUp (eg. the US as the "world's lender of last resort" in the little Great Depression of the last century).
Each civilization may have faced mulitple crises over time and survived each, but ultimately they faced a final crisis which usually began with the breakdown of communities within the whole (Look at what happened to the various interconnected communities in past civilizations.. e.g. Anasazi, Norse, etc, etc...).
If you stand on "could cause disastrous panics" that's harmless, and meaningless, enough.
Now, do you have a solid prediction, with good grounding in causation?
If that wasn't true in 1976 why is it true now?"
Well, the instability of the Middle East has had its consequences in the West. And there was something called the Asian monetary crisis, to name only a few.
Did you see that other article I dropped today?
Political Partisans Addicted To Irrational Defense Of Their Tribes
From that:
The point is that today, things that happen on the other side of the world can and do have fast effects on our lives. An obvious example is the phenomenon called outsourcing.
The later smacks of confirmation bias, in spades.
The story features newly retired Air Force General Charles F. Wald, 57, who was deputy commander of U.S. forces in Europe, Central Asia and Africa.
I'll quote the last paragraphs of the article:
"Help us keep energy free for all to use...join the US armed forces to keep the peace!!!"
"the only real solution lies in changing consumption at home"
This is a story about the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) reportedly being unanimously opposed to "surging" troops in Iraq. FYI, the JCS serves in an advisory role to the Secretary of Defense and to the President.
I suspect that Colin Powell was on CBS this past Sunday at the request of the JCS, saying that he had not seen any plan that would make him support the surge option.
First, we saw the revolt of the retired generals. I suspect that we are very, very close to seeing the revolt of the active generals (and admirals), perhaps via a mass resignation.
Some military analysts (such as William S. Lind) believe that the US troops concentrated in the Bhagdad area are far more vulnerable to being encircled and cut off by combined forces consisting of Shiite Militia and Iranian irregulars than is commonly thought.
Could it be that this troop build-up is to serve as further force protection against the inevitable Iranian counterattack in the event of a US and/or Israeli strike on Iran? Just a conjecture on my part.
The Bush regime is getting more desparate by the day, and desparate people do reckless things.
Annan: Iran intervention would be unwise
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/mld/sanluisobispo/news/world/16273464.htm
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070101/cooperweb
About Face: Soldiers Call for Iraq Withdrawal
Who did the "HumDrum" website? I thought it was very funny.
Any plans for a "Holiday HumDrum?"
We could poke fun at ourselves and at the cornucopian propaganda at the same time, and maybe garner some positive attention while having fun.
You know, we could invent "digital pumps" for Yergin's "digital oil" and plan "digital distribution" ofthe "digital oil" ober "the internets" which is a "series of tubes."
Maybe we could develop a new "digital spirituality" to provide strength during post-peak times.
We could develop ideas for faith-based cars that go when you pray. Digital, of course!
Just a thought.
PS: Has anyone seen a Digital Baby Jesus? I'm believfe that there must be one somehwere. Maybe Newsweek is covering that this Holiday Season?
21 he is male remember.
digital data collection and analysis did change understanding of reserves and recovery, is it rooted in this?
I think it was the oil minstry who had said that they would not use Oil as retaliating measure, whilst at the same time, nut job was spouting off that they could push oil above $120 should they be backed into a corner with sanctions.
I believe however at the time supply/demand was a lot tighter and oil's price climb was starting to surprise no-one. Now it seems that even the mighty opec are having a job satbilizing it! (I smirk slightly here as any earmarked quota cuts seem to be all hot air) See demand!
Anyway my point is that in the current climate it looks as if the carpet has been pulled out from under nut jobs feet as Iran's oil sword is bluntened by reduced demand.....perfect timing to impose sanctions.
Marco.
If I were the paranoid type, I would think they are doing it at Christmas on purpose, knowing the average voter is too distracted to care at this time of year.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/12/18/news/iran.php
'Iran is a theocracy, and Khamenei is the theocrat-in-chief. To give you an idea of where Ahmadinejad lies in Iran's political hierarchy, note that no one can even run for the presidency in the first place without the approval of Khamenei and the Guardian Council, a group of six clerics and six conservative jurists that are selected by Khamenei."
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article12949.htm
Regarding Iran, I have read many stories which claim Ahmadinejad, the president, is used as a mouthpiece to placate or stir the populus, while Khamenei himself has a much more balanced approach, sending offers thru diplomatic channels that are rebuffed by the US.
Hmmm, let's see. This administration, doing the wrong thing, at the wrong time? That wouldn't possibly happen, would it? </snark>
"U.S. Weighs Military Buildup To Warn Iran"
http://articles.news.aol.com/news/_a/us-weighs-military-buildup-to-warn-iran/20061219105909990011?ci d=2194
However there is a actually a double edged sword here. It goes back to a discussion waged early in the year (May maybe) about whether oil was truly a global product.
If Iran supply china then china buy less elsewhere and in the end, supply is changed but everyone gets their oil. For action to be effective then Iran would have to remove export and this is what would cripple them.
So I insit now that the powers at be are well aware that sanctions will be effective.
Marco.
Ships and Submarines
Deployable Battle Force Ships: 278
Ships Underway (away from homeport): 85 ships (30% of
total)
On deployment: 83 ships (30% of total)
Attack submarines underway
(away from homeport): 25 submarines (47%)
On deployment: 18 submarines (34%)
Ships Underway
Carriers:
USS Nimitz (CVN 68) - Pacific Ocean
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) - Persian Gulf
Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG):
USS Boxer (LHD 4) - Persian Gulf
USS Dubuque (LPD 8) - Persian Gulf
USS Comstock (LSD 45) - Persian Gulf
Amphibious Warfare Ships:
USS Saipan (LHA 2) - Atlantic Ocean
USS Ogden (LPD 5) - Pacific Ocean
USS Ashland (LSD 48) - Mediterranean Sea
Actually the decline began in April of 2005 and has continued, more or less, on a downward trend ever since.
Ron Patterson
Now that being said, it was certainly possible that their HL show their Qt to be more then 50%, but as far as I know, they've been in 'decline' since Chavez took power, not simply since last year.
When you compare what a good deal the developed world gets out of them compared to what they get in return out of us I would not be so quick to call the taxes ridiculously high.
Also there is no denying the extra revenue that Hugo Chaves has invested in healthcare and education in the country.
Marco.
Many politicians appear to do good for the masses when it suits their own bolstering. however you have to live with the lesser evil. You stick Blair, Bush and Chavez in a ring for a good old debate - old school fashion and here's what will happen.
Bush will wonder where the popcorn is.
Blair will throw ice-cream at the referee
and Hugo will pontificate about the greatnes of being in the ring. He is a lot smarter then the other two comedy acts.
Marco.
Marco.
Have you got any evidence that the government has any intention, not to mention capability, of denying health care to those who voted for the opposition?
One thing for sure, when the previous incarnations of the opposition ran the show, the poor, who voted massively for Chavez, did not get health care.
You are so sadly brainwashed. A tool of Lucifer, his stench emanating from your postings.
If anyone is brainwashed here, its you.
Chavez Fires Dissident Oil Workers
Chavez Threatens Media Crackdown
Chavez Administers Last Rights to Rule of Law
PS, I especially like how he now has the power to seize control of the Supreme Court :P
And thats just a few articles. You can do the rest of your dirty work.
What I always feel is the slant and angle on all reporting. Your first weblink, look at the webhost!
The second: Our media is wholesale supressed, it's just that our governments don't blatantly admit to having any control over it - Hugo's got the balls to just come out and say it.
The third - this is the scariest bit. What amendment did the US president just make to the constitution? Go look it up - then tell me the rule of law is as democratic in our country(s) as you tout it to be.
Your point I feel is that he is not the Golden boy that he at first appears to be. No one is naive enough to fall into this trap. What is being said though is that we cannot be guilty of the same perpetrations and still point the finger.
Marco.
Do I need to pull out articles with headlines such as:
"Reagan fires air traffic controllers" to show you just how inadequate is your argumentation.
You are a sadly deficient and uncritical thinker. In the hands of people with your level of intellectual talent, your republic slides into a bucket of sludge. Tom Paine would probably want the monarchy back.
Chavez is playing political loot and plunder by rewarding those who vote for him, and punishing those who don't. That is coercion even if its not a gun to your head.
Reagan on the other hand fired those air traffic control workers after they BROKE THE LAW, and not because they did or did not vote for him. This was also after the air traffic controllers rejected a proposal for IIRC for a 10+% annual pay increase.
Sorry but you example is pure bull and a pure strawman. Completely different circumstances.
Why don't you try to improve your "Critical thinking" and "intellectual talent", cause sadly I find it lacking.
Already been noted on The Oil Drum.
The advertisements for using natural gas for heating was 'safety to the neighbors' in the form of no hot cinders from your chimney and because of its clean-burning nature.
Some places passed laws to prevent wood stoves for heating. (I wonder how bad it has to be before they get repealed)
And on 'peak debt'
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article170.html
The dollar used to be worth more than six British pounds; now, it's worth about half of a pound.
A greenback used to be worth three Swiss francs; today, the two are almost equal.
The U.S. currency has already lost nearly 30% against the euro, which is barely six years old.
Can't pay your debts? http://fms.treas.gov/fr/06frusg/06frusg.pdf
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html
The US is insolvent. There is simply no way for our national bills to be paid under current levels of taxation and promised benefits. Our federal deficits alone now total more than 400% of GDP.
(Wonder who gets first? Vet bennies or things like heat/food/housing assistance to the poor?)
Now its not Africa's poor but:
http://informationclearinghouse.info/article15919.htm
More Americans went homeless and hungry in 2006 than the year before and children made up almost a quarter of those in emergency shelters, said a report released on Thursday by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
All leading to thinks like 'peak robbery'
http://rawstory.com/news/2006/US_robberies_murders_on_the_rise_12182006.html
The Ride of Broken Dreams is beginning
http://www.tv.com/the-simpsons/special-edna-a.k.a.-love-and-marking/episode/137735/trivia.html
A couple in my town had a new wood pellet heating installed in their house, and now are being sued by neighbors, who complain about allegedly particulate matter.
The new unit, which replaced an old oil heating, is state-of-the-art (these folks are really wealthy) and coupled with a new solar collector on the roof.
However there is indeed a lot of research in Germany, and lots of apparently successful attempts to build zero energy houses. Great projects that really make me hopeful, but - hard to believe - ever and ever hindered by NIMBYism.
Quite honestly, I don't see how a single home unit will ever be that clean burning in terms of particles which require either filtering or a burning temperature which is not practical in a home, which is why I think burning less is the only way to improve things.
Maybe you are right, maybe not. (Page is both in English and German BTW)
IIRC it used to be $4 = £1, and it worst it was down near $1.10 = £1 - but I know of no time when it was anywhere close to $1 to £6
Well unless you have a crystal ball than is...
The wood broiler industry was not included in EPA rules for wood burning stoves and consequently there is little oversight and very poor and inefficient designs out there.
Check out the following website for more info:
http://www.woodheat.org/
Many wood boilers today have secondary combustion chambers, and have been tested by the EPA. While probably not applicable to postage stamp back yards, there are quite a few plusses. In addition to heating much larger areas, even multiple buildings from a central location, easier manipulation of fuel and varied sources of fuel, longer loading times, the elimination of smoke from the living enviroment is a big point for those with respiratory ailments. Disclaimer: I do not own one, but have over the years purchased the latest current new and improved wood stove.
Why do they need all that power now anyway? It's sure as hell not to defend their own shores.
They then move into other industry such a alternative/renewable energy, selling systems to china and europe.
This is called a moment of clarity, and i hope to dine here more often.
Marco.
Bernake does not need helicopters dropping bundles of currency: The Fed has it in its power to monetize the debt, and I think the Treasury Dept. of the U.S. still has the authority (originally going back to the Civil War) to issue currency in the form of U.S. notes, which us older folk can remember on e.g. some old five dollar bills. Thus, with the Fed and the Treasury both in effect "printing money" there is a very clear and potentially rapid path out from under the burden of debt in the U.S.
To a large extent, the history of money is a history of inflations, i.e. a decline in the purchasing power of money.
Yes but it became a bit easier to do this in 1971 did it not? Keywords: nixon, delink, gold.
Marco.
For more, do some reading on the German inflation of 1923--fascinating stuff.
However, monetization (money printing your way out of debt) is highly inflationary.
That is why the likely outcome is hyperinflation (to pay off debts) followed by a currency collapse and recession/depression. Once the debts are inflated away and currency destroyed, the Amero will be introduced as a way to have a stable currency.
Alas, the 'villans' won't get their 'come-uppins'. (pick your villian and how they avoid whater fate you wish to have them suffer)
That's what I said. Following hyperinflation you introduce a new currency, thus it is bankruptcy since you aren't paying back the original debt dollar for dollar.
Change is on the menu, and will the change be orderly (IE you live, others who suffer will "just deserve what they got") or will change be chaotic (You got shot by some punk who wanted to buy some crack to forget about how their life went t o hell after gas went to $5 so they couldn't get to their Mal*wart job and at $7.50 a gallon Mal*Wart closed anyway)
The Samuel Byck way of thinking and then reaction to that conclusion worries me more than just what and how the economy does.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Byck
he experienced a number of business failures and admitted himself to a psychiatric hospital, citing depression, for two months in 1972.....He began to believe that the government was conspiring to oppress the poor.How about going off the gold standard? Many see this as a reneging on US monetary obligations. In any case, I can see the US reneging on its obligations quite easily. Inflation is the way to do it. "Sorry, but your dollar is only worth 1/4 what it was last week in terms of goods and services." This will affect everyone who holds dollars, both domestic and foreign.
Because of this governments have both incentive to inflate and incentive to under report inflation. After all if someone believes inflation is 2% and offers to take 3% interest (so they make 1% profit on the investment in your debt) but your real inflation rate is 4%, then you've just snookered the poor schmuck into transferring his money to you over time.
thank you for your insight.
Silver, gold, copper (say some wire? or plumbing), ethyl alcohol (see the Dymetry O - the Ex-pat russian who was on From the Winderness about booze VS gasoline) - many many items that can be used by you or as trade goods is a good plan. A 55 gallon drum of Honey could even be a fine way of 'holding' some of your 'wealth'.
But there are plenty of people who say 'hold 5 or 10% of your wealth in gold/silver', so its not like the advice is a lone voice in the wilderness.
Side note: Did you realize that the $24 the native Americans received for selling Manhattan, if invested at 7% interest compounding annually since the 1626 date of sale, would yield about $3,515,982,963,776.94 - enough for those same native Americans to buy back all of Manhattan today and have change left over for Las Vegas too. ;)
Exponential functions are incredible things.
"Please Mister Airdale you will now listen to me Mister Airdale and reboot your computer Mister Airdale and please do not use those words with me Mister Airdale. Now Mister Airdale the problem is gone Mister Airdale, goodybe. "Duhhhhhh.
Write it in BAL ,Mister Newbie and no abends please.
Cobol? Not fair. Asm language.
Were you a programmer?
airdale
Ah..righteous tools. Back when machines were under real control and not running amok.
I suppose 7% if inappropriate - perhaps a lower number. There have been periods where inflation has been nonexistent (18th century perhaps??)
Actually my statement, though stated in an obtuse fashion, was that
(i) no one is holding a gun to Beijing or to anyone else to buy treasuries. They do it for their own nefarious purposes.
(ii) Treasuries are short term and if inflation rises then the Fed raises rates so short termers are protected
(iii)5.25% is pretty damn high IMHO
(iv) If you are concerned buy Gold or copper etc (maybe it is already happening)
I was hoping that you would address that statement about buying Gold. Mr. Blair did acquiesce to the statement (thank you)
Another side point: markets crash regularly and banks go bust (US history being full of that). Rather than being able to buy NY and Las Vegas, anyone taking such a 'very long term view' of investment would probably end up ruined. Rather like Dawkins' comment on the human perception of probability: 'If you lived for several hundred thousand years, you would be extremely careful about crossing roads, because in that time you would be certain to get run over.'
To retain wealth over many generations requires control of real assets, and preferably actual control of the banking system, as opposed to passive participation in that system as 'savers'.
Had those Indians invested as you suggest, they would in all probability still be broke.
(Yes, I realize you are only trying to illustrate the power of the exponential function and it is just an example...)
Isn't it curious that at any point along this history, the people involved in the 'growth' industry sell it as though it will proceed onward forever, even though this is physically impossible.
When there is a crash or a big bank bust, in economic history it is simply referred to as a 'break in series' as though things will then proceed as 'normal.'
'Collapse of Complex Societies' principles apply equally to economics. Every so often we will have either a big collapse or a number of smaller 'catabolic' collapses to bring us back down to some lower starting out state from which we can build, and dream....
Actually they never paid $24 to the "Indians of Manhatten".
Instead, a sham transaction was conducted with the Canarsie Indians of Brooklyn, New York.
Hey. Not dat I would know anyting about Bwooklyn, ya know. :-)
*Financial Sector: 32% (mostly mortgage and GSE pools and ABS)
*Households: 30%
*Non-financial sector businesses: 20%
*Federal Govt.: 12%
*State and local govt.: 5%
The total as of 3Q06 was nearly 42 trillion dollars and does not include the Social Security Trust Fund debt (another $4 trillion or so).
We all love to blame the govt. as having too much debt, but in fact the blame should first be placed elsewhere.
Another salient fact about inflating debt away: interest rates would shoot up, naturally. Before you know it debt service would become so onerous that you would get a depression from defaults, anyway.
The only debt that can be successfully inflated away to nothing is long-term fixed rate debt. There is now much less of that than used to be in the past. Another factor is the constant swapping of fixed debt into variable rate and long term into short via derivatives.
If you think debt can nowadays be inflated away you are still living in the 70's and 80's. Bond markets have become extremely sophisticated and bond investors are not stupid.
No, people will just have to cut down consumption and pay off their debts. Or default. Either way, severe recession and even depression.
My God...can I frame this? Is this the first time Hothgor has actually asked for someone's opinion instead of just giving his?
I'm nice to nice people. And I have asked for opinions before..all the time...RR, WT, Dave, Stuart...
I guess Hothie is starting to get his groupies now though...that'll embolden him some...thanks for that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_sock_puppet
I am sure that our face to face personalities are much different than our "virtual" personalities.
I have used a different moniker (Virtual Ipecac) but only to display my emotions during the elections. I switched back to Dragonfly41 afterwards. And I never said, "That Dragonfly41 is such smart dude...ain't he?"
unfortunately these "trust" funds are "invested" in treasury debt which is currently $ 8.65 trillion ($3 trillion added by the befuddled one in 6 yrs) $ 1.9 trillion of this debt is in "special t notes" owed to the social security "trust" fund by the us treasury
now tell me hotgor ( expert on everyting) who is insolvent ? social security or the us treasury ?
Surely the government will find a way to default on its obligations; that what governments typically do when they are in a tough financial spot.
Now what was the question you were trying to ask but didn't?
I enjoy M Greer's fiction on the future, but I think there may be many more stories to tell - some might be from the perspective of survivors in countries other than the US/west.
Ethiopia: Villagers Receive Training On Solar Energy in India
Live long and prosper..
It's amazing what the poor come up with in terms of satisfying their necessities. In some cases those 3rd worlders come up with some pretty good methods of coping that we Firsties might find useful.
Also, although I think Greer's story is useful and interesting food for thought, I think we need to remember that over the past few hundred years civilization developed in an asymmetrical fashion in both time and place.
Likewise, in the Post Peak era civilization will likely decline in an asymmetrical manner in time and place. If for no other reason than differences in the distribution of remaining resources and the differences in regional political rivalries and regional population pressures of each locale.
So goes the "ebb and flow" of civilization over time and place.
Fuel Scarcity Hits Port
Marco.
According to an article in Die Zeit a few months ago, wood burning causes as much particle (wasn't it 'particulant' previously?) pollution as diesel powered vehicles in Germany, which has fairly strict standards in terms of checking/cleaning chimneys and stoves.
Burning things is pretty much a problem whatever is burned, which is one of the shining allures of the hydrogen dream - look, nothing but pure water. Speaking very broadly, wood remains one of the better things to burn, as long as it is locally grown and locally burned, in houses with chimneys that are kept as clean as possible, using efficient stoves, with good insulation.
Unfortunately, most wood is burned either by poorer people who have little option, or by richer people who think that burning pellets shipped hundreds of miles is somehow green.
However, I do think that local heating 'plants' can remove most of the problems associated with particle pollution when burning biomass, but this would involve another layer of expense and infrastructure - the heated water is circulated through pipes to the space being heated, after all. Germany has certainly moved in this direction, as has Sweden - till now, I haven't really read anything about how emissions are handled. It is possible, though not real likely, that it is a dirty secret.
While wood and other biomass CAN be burned cleanly, usually it is not. It is not difficult to burn wood in a industrial boiler, where the fuel feed rate and the amount of combustion air can be carefully controlled, but home fireplaces and wood stoves are another matter.
In the typical home fireplace or wood stove one essentially has uncontrolled combustion, especially during the period when you are trying to get the fire started. A home wood fire may smell nice, but the very fact that you are smelling anything is proof positive that there is incomplete combustion taking place. I believe some areas of the US (Portland, Oregon comes to mind) now have local ordinances restricting the use of domestic wood stoves.
Wood chips are better than logs with respect to air emissions because they have a much higher amount of exposed surface for a given weight of wood. And it is the exposed surface where the combustion process actually takes place.
There are a number of more sophisticated wood stoves/heaters on the market that have a secondary combustion chamber where the exhaust gases containing the products of incomplete combustion get a second chance to be burned. These probably have an order of magnitude less particulate emissions than a conventional wood stove or fireplace.
It's not much of a trick to burn wood (relatively) cleanly, but you do need the right equipment.
Any stove purchased since 1988 must meet smoke emission standards of 7.5 grams per hour, or less. Outdoor woodburning units are not subjected to this requirement.
http://www.epa.gov/woodstoves/technical.html
All new stoves (since 1988) have secondary combustion technology to meet emission requirements.
I burn a Woodstock Soapstone catalytic stove that is very efficient and clean. No visible smoke during the burn cycle.
For anybody considering woodstove heat, visit hearth.com and go to the community forum to discuss your options. I am a frequent poster there.
This place is much too intimidated to post! And thats good....keeps my mouth (or fingers) shut and my eyes open.
Maybe one day these will all be retrofitted with the latest technology, but I tend to doubt it, as many of these tend to be in rural areas. I've got no problem with that, as it's mainly a matter of people making do with what they have.
As a note to the comment below about rural burning - particulate emissions tend to be a problem in concentration, when they are inhaled. Someone living in a place where their next neighbor lives a couple of miles away is unlikely to be causing any harm burning wood on a winter night. This doesn't apply to most of Europe, however.
Oil has horrible public relations. My best theory is that it is a combination of fear, dependency and envy by the general public. Most people know how dependent they are on fossil fuels and feel powerless to do anything. And they envy huge wealth.
Perceptions aren't helped any by the Majors ham-handed interference in the US political process. The Bush clan has received huge industry contributions as far back as I know, George Herbert Walker was a director of Dresser and is a very large part of Halliburton. George H.W. Bush was introduced to the Houston oil elite by Carl Rove's ex-mother-in-law, Jane Oberwetter Wainright, the republican Precinct Judge for River Oaks and publisher of the Houston Social Register, and they have funded the Bush League very heavily since.
H.L. Hunt, ever the progressive <sarcasm alert>, bankrolled the John Birch Society, and tried to fund efforts to change the constitution to give rich people more votes. Texaco used to fly a black flag of piracy, and was the main supplier of crude to the Nazi's before Pearl Harbor. The list is endless. But, recently Exxons funding of skeptics of global warming and peak oil hasn't helped at all.
The thing that offends me most is that bi oil isn't planning to change its behaviour, just the perceptions of its behaviour, sort of like the Man-Boy Love Society
But it will be great if they fund internet ads on this site!
I remember he was talking about the consitutional convention that keeps coming up. Anyone know anything on that?
JoeWP from PeakOil.com has stripped out the relevant six pages from the PDF file, for those unable or unwilling to download the 120 page original:
http://www.updebate.org/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=11388
How much gold could I buy with $1,000?
Iraq Insurgents Starve Capital of Electricity
The article reports that within the past few months insurgents have been effectively disrupting power into Baghdad by blowing up unguarded power lines to the north, south, and west of the city.
The insurgents dismantle the downed towers to be melted down into ingots for the lucrative aluminum market. They then lie in wait to ambush the work teams sent to repair the damage. As soon as one breach is repaired, new explosions bring down other sections of the power line to keep it out of action.
The article states that Baghdad is now down to a 6-7 hour ration of electricity per day (vs. roughly 9 hrs/day nationwide) and the few aging power plants within the city proper are clearly inadequate to meet the city's basic power demands going forward.
It also points out that some American-financed power projects in the city have been ineffective, citing the Qudis plant, just north of Baghdad, which was "outfitted with turbine generators modeled on 747 airplane engines that work efficiently only when using fuel of higher quality than the Iraqis can provide with any regularity, a fact that has led to damaging breakdowns."
Marco.
Blame the Frnech.
http://www.uruknet.de/?p=m29130&hd=&size=1&l=e
God bless the West.
At a social gathering a citizen asks his town's Mayor and the Emergency Management Coordinator what they think of Peak Oil?
Both look slightly puzzled but reply, "I've never tried it - I usually just use Quaker State or whatever they have in bulk when they changes my oil."
Hope springs eternal only when on narcotics.
SOP, don't despair and please don't go back on the dope; I like you much better when you're clean.
Front page on MSNBC.com
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16273695/
Actually, I was happy to see this article as we've been thinking of buying a Toyota Yaris. I'd been debating spending the extra $$$ for side-impact air bags. Given that having them pushed the Yaris from the bottom to the top of the heap, I'm more inclined now to spend the extra money and get them.
That article was fairly balanced and pointed out cars that received both good and bad marks.
Also while smaller vehicles are more fuel efficient they are as a fact less safe than larger vehicles. This isn't spin, nor is it scare tactics.... its simply the facts about kenetic energy and the physics surrounding it. Being in a more massive vehicle is going to allow for the vehicle to absorb more shock than a smaller one.
Furthermore, the claim that more smaller vehicles were sold due to increased fuel concerns is again a fact. That trend seems to have begun reversing itself for the time being but I suspect as summer hits we will see a return to that trend.
Given the increase in the number of small vehicles on the road, and trying to provide information to consumers about their choices (both good and bad) is not a scare tactic. I know full well when I purchase a small car that I'm giving up certain features including cargo/passenger space, and saftey rating, but I also know I'm gaining fuel efficiency, and economy. Its a trade off and one I'm willing to make given that fuel costs generally have a much greater impact on me personally than crash ratings, given I have not been in too many crashes.
That's not to say that someone else would value the same things I do, and as such may be willing to pay more for the sense of security they obtain in a larger vehicle. As fuel prices increase, they will need to re-evaluate the price tag they attach to their safety in a vehicle. At some point.. the price tag will be too much.
I should have made it more clear that what upset me was not necessarily the actual content of the story - more along the lines of the way it's presented. It's just annoying that THE lead story on the site screams (to those who might only skim over it) "Small Car Concerns" - which as you point out, is well balanced by the facts in the body of the story... Also, the presentation of it as THE biggest story of the day at that point - is it really or is this just a not so subtle way of planting that seed of doubt that might lessen the sales of these cars that admittedly don't make much money for anyone.
And then the cycle is just perpetuated - after the safety concerns article there will be a another story out (as was just out there last week) about how much sales of small cars or hybrids are down (Shocking !!) and then there will be another safety story and oh by the way SUV sales are way up etc etc. Perhaps I'm too cynical - but I'm at the point now that I don't believe any of this "news" exists outside of that grey area where the distinction between infotainment and advertising gets very fuzzy...
However on this article as a lone sample I'd say the article was fairly balanced. It noted the negatives and positives, and even the positive and negative of "same" car with different feature sets (the Yaris I believe)
Given that generally "good" news doesn't sell well, and "bad" news does, it doesn't surprise me that the title of the article is what it is.
But then if someone is the type of person who only reads the headlines, that someone would likely have a really screwed up view of the world. Sadly I think too many people pay attention to just the Headlines.
- Younger people generally drive smaller cars. Young means likely to take chances and get into fatal accidents.
- Small cars have been generally economy cars, without any special safety features.
- IMO, there is a disproportionate number of women driving those SUVs. Women drivers means less risk taking and so fewer accidents for these large vehicles.
AFAIK, the numbers that I have seen do not take any of these driver-related factors into account. If we had a mutant horde of "Tunses the Cat" driving those SUVs, the statistics would show small cars to be incredibly safe.of course that would make it more difficult to comute to their vinyl sided suburban wastelands
It is also a fact that collision resistance is only one of many parameters used for measuring vehicle safety. It is also a fact that overall safety of SUVs may be worse than for conventional vehicles. Especially considering that SUV's are exempt from most of vehicle regulations regarding not only mileage requirements, but crash resistance in terms of 'crash cage' construction etc, not to mention the greater maneuverability of a smaller car.
IMO SUV's are not safer than a well designed conventional car.
Would you consider buying a small car? * 6544 responses
Yes, it's the best way to offset high gas prices.
48%
No, the safety concerns worry me.
36%
Not sure, I'd want to check the different models' crash-protection features first.
16%
- so not everybody is into the "mass race".
Crude oil -2.13mb (from 335.4)
Gasoline +0.1mb (from 199.9), refinery capacity 89.7%
Distillates -0.55mb (from 131.9)
The January spot contract expires today. At the time of this post the Feb contract is trading at $63.57.
Pemex crude oil production for Nov was 3.163 mbd vs 3.311 in Nov 2005.
All liquids was 3.552 (2006) vs 3.723 (2005).
I'm going to say based on today's Iran war rhetoric that someone already knows that tomorrow's numbers will not be good.
I'm going to shoot for the second consecutive week of draw downs across the board.
I have been off work for almost a week, so I am a little bit out of the loop with what marketing is saying. I have been expecting gasoline inventories to head back up, so I will make that single prediction: Gasoline inventories to increase.
Place your bets folks!!
No idea how that ultimately affects shipping, but I would guess like car traffic, it slows things down.
I am predicting crude will be down 2mb. Gasoline and Distillates will be up by .5mb each.
Ron Patterson
Surely you Jest!
Pemex reports 3.163 mb/d, crude + condensate for November and 3.552 mb/d for all liquids. Their production is falling like a rock. And you actually believe that they will ramp up to 4 mb/d for the first three months of 2007.
Pemex has never reported that kind of production in their history. That is never Freddy! For crude + condensate, their highest month ever was 3.455 mb/d. In November their production was down almost 300,000 bp/d below that level. And they are currently in steep decline. I have a chart but I haven't figured how to post from Excel yet. It would shock you.
Where on earth do you get this stuff Freddy? Do you live in fantisy land?
Ron Patterson
- Get the graph (in excel) on the screen
- Hit the Print Screen button
- Open the paint program (in accessories)
- select edit:paste
- Crop if needed
- save file as .jpg
- upload to flickr
- copy past the image url into your post
I want to see the chart :-)In December 2005 Pemex said that it expected fields such as Ku-Maloob-Zaap, Offshore Light Crude, Bermúdez Complex, Jujo-Tecominoacán, and others will make up for the Cantarell production decrease. However, as it's turned out there's a 250,000 mbd shortfall in the decline offset, so those fields are going to have to ramp up pretty sharply in the next four months.
ASPO NL (Koppellar) has the 2007 incremental increase from these offsetting fields as 225,000 mbd, which is pretty much the amount that Pemex is expecting Cantarell to decline next year. So, for Pemex to add some 450,000 mbd production in just 121 days will be quite some feat.
We shall see.
I just consider baseless boasts of decline and cynicism by TOD blowhards as white noise that we must weather to get to the good posts. TOD has several shining light researchers that i enjoy but unfortunatley most of the posts are by agenda driven neophtyes that don't understand overall trends, their markers and critical mass.
Does Exxon Mobil have a proprietary trading operation? Do they have a floor full of traders doing nothing but trading (speculating) futures contracts or physical product with the house money? Or is that sort of thing limited to Shell, Chevron, BP, Valero, Koch, Conoco, etc.?
I simply cannot imagine Shell being allowed to hold a seat, and trade on the floor of the NYMEX. I know they often hedge and deal in depravities but I was not aware that they were actually allowed to hold a seat on the exchange.
But if you have a reference, a URL or evidence that they actually hold their own seats on the exchange, then by all means post it. If you can do that then I have learned some astonishing news today.
Ron Patterson
BEGIN
AFTER INCREASING FOR FIVE consecutive years, we expect crude-oil prices to decline in 2007, and again in 2008, due to market expectations for demand growth being too high, in our view, while forecasts for supply increases appear to be too low due to the exclusion of the significant rise in bio-fuels production that we foresee.
Although we expect global-refining capacity to remain a bottleneck until 2009-2010, rising Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) spare production capacity should help reduce the "risk premium" on crude-oil prices, which has averaged $10 to $15 per barrel in 2006, in our view.
As a result, we are lowering our crude-oil price forecast (West Texas Intermediate, or WTI) for 2007 (from $65 per barrel to $60 per barrel) and 2008-2010 (from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel), and reducing our refining margin forecasts for next year by 10%, on average.
Global crude-oil demand growth could disappoint in 2007. Despite forecasts for a decline in global Gross Domestic Product growth, many industry groups are expecting a sizeable increase in world-wide crude-oil demand growth from 2006 to 2007. Additionally, global economic growth forecasts for next year could be reduced. Given this economic uncertainty, we are forecasting a lower year-over-year increase in global demand of 1.4% in 2007, and then expect annual consumption growth near the long-term average of 1.5% over the 2008-2011 timeframe.
Bio-fuels production growth should become a major story in energy in 2007-2008. We expect average U.S. ethanol production to increase by 125,000 barrels per day (1.9 billion gallons) in 2007 and 300,000 barrels per day (4.6 billion gallons) in 2008, while the rest of the world adds another 175,000 barrels per day and 100,000 barrels per day of ethanol and bio-diesel supply in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Bio-fuels should be the reason that incremental non-OPEC supply exceeds demand in 2007-2008, resulting in downward pressure on crude-oil prices, in our view.
OPEC spare production capacity could double in 2007 versus 2006. The result of the rising non-OPEC crude-oil and bio-fuels supply is that OPEC will need to reduce its production. OPEC's effective spare production capacity should double from about two million barrels per day to four million barrels per day, on average in 2007. The growing spare production capacity should help ease concerns about whether or not the global energy market could offset a major supply disruption, reducing the "risk premium" on crude-oil prices, in our view.
END
I post this not because I agree with it, but in the interest of showing an example of what a mainstream financial analyst might be thinking, at present. Lots of hope being placed in bio fuels, it seems to me.
My apologies, if this has already appeared elsewhere in the thread.
In round numbers we need 8 mbpd of new oil production from new wells, workovers, recompletions, etc., over the next two years just to offset declining production in existing wellbores.
But let's just look at Saudi Arabia, which is currently showing the same post-peak decline rate as Texas. Assuming that it continues, a safe assumption IMO, the projected 700,000 bpd in new biofuels production would just go go offset the decline in Saudi production. Then, let's consider the fact that we would be replacing high EROEI fossil fuels with low EROEI biofuels.
IMO, the underlying message of this article is to go ahead and buy the SUV to drive to and from the large suburban mortgage.
Nobody said demand destruction would be pretty.
In Pensacola, Florida today, we set an all time record high, 79 degrees F. The old record for this day was in 1998, 77 degrees F.
Anyone else have record highs?
Ron Patterson
Seems like a slightly higher (unl > $2.5/gallon) is required to enforce some conservation.
Hey has anyone seen this? If you own your own home they will rent you solar panels for 25 years. Your rate stays the same so you lock in todays prices and use green energy. In a few years they make their money back. Win win
Thanks. This was discussed Nov. 15 and 16; if I had one more minute, I'd figure out how to provide the link. (serious. not sarcasm.)
Just a big coincidence that we had all the scare from Thailand today as well? What the h*ll is going on here?
Good reading all around....
Dollar hegemony - Dec 19
http://www.energybulletin.net/23816.html
Essentially we have been going into debt to maximize the use of energy right before the production of oil peaks. The stupidity of the US economy has grown exponentially. We have been investing in energy consumption. Governments, corporations, individuals are borrowing money as fast as possible. Total US debt has increased $3.5 trillion over the last year. The total value of oil produced over that time is about $1.8 trillion. We borrowed enough to buy all the world's oil twice. We have loaded the guns, handed them out to our enemies, and dared them to shoot us in the head. Any predictions on what happens next?
From The Nixon Center [yes, that Nixon], honorably? headed by Henry Kissinger, comes an article
finally and frankly admittingthat oil is the reason we are in Iraq. Sadly, this article should have been published years ago, but the last paragraphs are telling IMO:-----------------------------------------------------
The Bush Administration's chief concerns regarding the regional impact of a U.S. withdrawal in Iraq can still be traced to oil interests. If the United States were to leave Iraq now, it would in all likelihood lose influence in Iraq. Iran would become more emboldened. And with a surge in anti-Americanism, the United States could lose all its military bases in the Persian Gulf. The so-called moderate Arab countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) would fear Iran, not to mention their own citizenry, and would likely cease delivering on Washington's directives in order to make a last ditch effort to save their thrones. Why would this matter to America? Because of the region's vital oil and natural gas resources.
And the West's loss of control over the Persian Gulf would become the Bush presidential legacy.What is now the best course of action for the United States in Iraq? The people of the region are sober about U.S. motivations in the Gulf,
and an honest admission of what prompted, and has sustained, the U.S. campaign could bolster U.S. credibility there. In addition, U.S. officials should recognize that an aggressive approach to pursuing oil interests could dramatically undermine those very interests.------------------------------------------------
IMO, the ME is long been fully aware of our full oil control intentions, and an honest admission would do nothing to bolster U.S. credibility there; a drug dealer is fully cognizant of an addict's addiction.
Perhaps this is just a open-coded message sent to Pres. Bush to get him to publicly and honestly admit
to the US citizenrythat ME fossil fuels has long been a National Security Directive, but with Peakoil nigh, an 'aggressive approach to pursuing oil interests could dramatically undermine those very interests'.Thus, I believe Kissinger and friends are advocating a subtle, two-pronged, low key policy to promote the grass-roots growth of politically-active American detritovores that will gladly rally for the furtherance of the 3 Days of the Condor scenario:
- Start mildly hyping in our MSM: the fear of a production decline in our FFs; i.e.--Yergin's "It's all good till 2030". This will result in an unsettled feeling in the populace, but console them enough to prevent them from wanting to investigate further into the root causes....
- But steering the populace into the continuing full-vein detritovore addiction-direction [infinite growth] as opposed to the superior long-term strategy of Detritus Powerdown conservation and Biosolar Powerup [examples: TODer WT's ELP, Heinberg's ideas, ASPO's Energy Depletion Protocols, etc].
This will help run Detritus MPP to its furthest limits, and simultaneously help constrain the growth of the essential Biosolar MPP and ecologic sustainability. In short: 150 million rifles is the Kissinger goal versus my hoped-for 150 million wheelbarrows.Sadly, as long ago predicted by me in my 'Porridge Principle of Metered Decline' posting: the grinding down of the ME continues-- because our short-term oriented leaders and diplomats totally misconstrue what actually needs to be accomplished in the Middle East as required by a thoughtful and carefully planned Paradigm Shift.
The
'Three Wise Men' came bearing giftsversus our three leaders of Bush, Cheney & Rumsfeld, who were fully expecting to instead be showered with Iraqi flowers, but who realized too late [despite being warned], that this would never happen due to stupid strategic blunders. Instead, countless bouquets now adorn the coffins of fallen Iraqis and US citizens alike. It did not have to be this way.++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So now, let me repeat again the first sentence of the last paragraph from the Nixon Center article by Hossein Askari: "What is now the best course of action for the United States in Iraq?"
In short, the fossil fueled lifestyle will inevitably end--what do you want to do next?
As mentioned before by me in many postings:
any FF exporting country that dedicates itself to Detritus Powerdown and Biosolar Powerup will enjoy long-term advantages over those that do not adopt this cultural mindset.++++++++++++++
The best way to free-will induce the Iraqis to gladly sell most of their FFs is to convince them that they don't need most of their FFs.
+++++++++++++++
How might this be accomplished for the betterment of all concerned parties worldwide? Simple, as any Peaknik is aware--Do unto others as ye would do unto yourself.
We would all love to live off-grid in a PV-powered Eco-Tech habitat within a social construct of relocalized permaculture. Riding electrified RRs, mass-transit or PHEVS, then
spiderwebrider railbikesto the gardens and/or farms. Plus all the other marvelous suggestions by other TODers and the other experts across the WWWeb.The current strategy of trying to build, then rebuild, then rebuild again, and yet again a FF-dependent infrastructure in Iraq is at
cross-purposes with a proper Paradigm Shift.The ME citizens intuitively understand that this only makes them desire to covet their remaining reserves that much more tightly: so that it can fuel that which will inevitably become useless and obsolete. Recall the camel, car, jetplane, back to riding the camel quotation. No wonder they feel trapped and angry!First World mfg. efficiency & knowhow should be harnessed to provide
Paradigm Shift Giftsin exchange for the remaining & declining FFs. The Old World model of extracting resources and giving nothing of true, lasting value back in return will not work as we go postPeak.From the CIA FactBook: Iraqi pop. = 26.8 million, with a median age of 19.7 years, in a land area equal to about two Idahos. For comparison, California has approx. 33.8 million people. Would 49 other states be willing to help CA rapidly Paradigm Shift so that the CA totally organic agricultural goods can be enjoyed by all as they start their own successive transitions?--I think so. Furthermore, would the First World importers be willing to trade solar panels and other Transition Goods to Iraq in exchange for their FFs?--I think so again. Thus, the FF exporters would be quite willing to sell their oil & natgas because they don't need it!
Thus, I would argue that a full-bore Peakoil Outreach in Iraq, that is full of young people with hopes and dreams, would be wildly yearning to remake their country with a Paradigm Shift.
It is futile to try and restore their existing decrepit and bombed out old-style infrastructure--let's help them Paradigm Shift!Let's pick an Iraqi town and shower it with Paradigm Gifts of Eco-Tech PV housing, clean water and humanure sewer pipes with webrailbikes and railPHEVs, heirloom seeds, composting pits, lots of wheelbarrows, bicycles with baskets, solar water heaters, and other lasting value assets--I bet they will take it from there and ask us to help them get it up and running nationwide
versus shooting at us.I hope Putin, Chavez, Ahmadinejad, Calderon, and the Saudi Princes try to understand what I am getting at in this posting [repeated again]:
any FF exporting country that dedicates itself to Detritus Powerdown and Biosolar Powerup will enjoy long-term advantages over those that do not adopt this cultural mindset.I hope that Bush will consider my proposals too. Does this posting help answer the question posed by the above author, Hossein Askari: "What is now the best course of action for the United States in Iraq?"
If so, and KSA would agree, then they would have no reason to try and blackmail us to keep us from withdrawing from Iraq. Isn't the best way to avert the 'Tragedy of the FF Commons' is by simply converting as many Detritovores as possible into Biosolars?
I don't want to be a fast-crash doomer--I prefer the hopeful alternatives--but the topdogs have got to listen and think before it is too late. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?