DrumBeat: December 20, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 12/20/06 at 12:58 PM EDT]

Nigeria militants say ransom offer nixed

LAGOS, Nigeria - A militant group in Nigeria's oil-rich river delta region said Wednesday it has turned down offers of ransom for four foreign hostages, reiterating that the captives will only be freed in exchange for imprisoned comrades.

"As earlier stated, the release of these four individuals is tied to the release of four hostages of Niger delta origin in Nigerian government hands," said an e-mail from an address used by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, MEND.

Feds withdraw rare wildflower proposal

SALT LAKE CITY - The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on Tuesday withdrew its proposal to list as threatened a wildflower that grows only in areas of Utah and Colorado where oil shale and tar sand exploration are being done.

The decision prompted environmental groups who have fought for the listing of the Graham's penstemon to accuse the FWS and Bureau of Land Management of choosing energy development leases over a threatened species.


Incentives pushed deep-water drilling

Government incentives played a key role in spurring companies to drill for oil and natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico that might have otherwise been too costly to explore, according to a report prepared for the Interior Department and just made public by the agency.


Middle East crude's differentials higher

Singapore: Differentials for Middle East crude continued to creep higher yesterday, with medium and heavy sour grades gaining the most on the back of Opec's second supply cut, traders said.


Sakhalin-II Stake Sale May Hit Shell's Reserve Replacement Strategy

Given the importance Sakhalin II has in Shell's reserve replacement strategy, any significant loss of future production volumes and reserves under a renegotiated production sharing agreement could be detrimental to Shell's efforts to catch up with its peers in respect of reserve replacement and reserve life, an important parameter to evaluate an oil major's long-term growth prospects.


The Cultural Economist's Report on Oil Depletion

Of all the issues we confront in the 21st Century, resource depletion promises to have the greatest impact on our economic and cultural destiny. And of our dwindling resources, none will have a greater impact on our future than the decline of oil and natural gas production.


Lester R. Brown: Why China Is Rising And The U.S. Is Declining

National policy failures such as not adequately supporting the use of renewable energy technologies have contributed to the growing U.S. trade deficit. For example, the United States should be a leading manufacturer and exporter of solar cells and wind turbines, but it has fallen behind both Europe and Japan. The solar cell, invented at Bell Labs in 1954, is an American technology. But the U.S. effort to develop solar energy was so weak and sporadic that both Germany and Japan forged ahead and developed robust solar cell manufacturing and export industries.


Energy spurs US producer prices surge

US producer price inflation rose at its fastest pace in more than three decades last month as energy and vehicle prices rebounded, helping push wholesale costs higher, government figures showed on Tuesday.

The producer price index rose 2 per cent after a decline of 1.6 per cent in October, the strongest gain since 1974. There was also a sharp rise in core prices – excluding food and energy – which saw the fastest rise in 26 years, with an increase of 1.3 per cent last month.


ConocoPhillips producing renewable diesel fuel

ConocoPhillips has started commercial production of renewable diesel fuel at the company's refinery in Cork, Ireland. The refinery is currently producing 1,000 barrels of the renewable fuel, which includes soybean and vegetable oils among its ingredients.


Sanyo to Spend Y19 Billion to Boost Solar Cell Capacity


China to limit use of grains for biofuels amid renewed worries over supply

SHANGHAI, China: China will restrict the use of corn and other edible grains for producing biofuel, state media reports said Monday, noting concerns over surging prices despite expectations for yet another bumper harvest.


Report backs fuel cell ships


EU tackles aircraft CO2 emissions


BLM Releases Study of Proposal to Ease Pinedale Anticline Restrictions

The Bureau of Land Management released a study last week of an industry proposal to waive seasonal restrictions on natural gas drilling on Wyoming's Pinedale Anticline, which found that the plan "could cause significant adverse impacts to the human and natural environments."


Global energy hunger means boom for Norwegian outpost: Barents Sea's possibilities weigh against ecological concerns


Could Spot Uranium Prices Reach $100/pound?

I feel the uranium market right now is the world’s most unbalanced commodity market. In a sense, the world, through the nuclear power industry, consumes approximately 172 million pounds of uranium per year, and the world only produces about 92 million pounds of uranium per year. The supply deficit is made up through above-ground inventories, which are being worked down pretty quickly.


Oil Prices Impact Negatively On Zimbabwe

International oil prices soared in 2006, reaching an all-time high of US$78,36 per barrel in August impacting negatively on non-oil-producing countries such as Zimbabwe.


Venezuela's Chavez Offers Malaysia Oil Exploration Stake

Venezuela is ready to jointly explore for oil with Malaysia and help it boost its reserves, President Hugo Chavez said Tuesday.

"We can help over there too. We can explore in Malaysia," Chavez told visiting Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi while touring an oil refinery in eastern Venezuela.


Nigeria: Biofuel - Nigeria Needs 7bn KG of Cassava Annually


China to assess the energy consumption performance of real estate projects

Energy-saving initiatives will be obligatory for all real estate investment applications in China from the first day of 2007, as the country moves to boost energy efficiency.


Is There A Synthetic Fuel In Your Future?

As wider unrest threatens traditional petroleum resources in the Middle East and as industry observers disagree on whether "peak oil" has been reached, the U.S. military is moving forward with plans for half of its turbine fuel to be synthetically derived by the next decade.


The end of Dollar supremacy

The Iranian government has finally developed a new weapon that can destroy the financial system underpinning the American Empire. The U.S. dollar dominance is coming to an end.


Rosneft to boost oil production 8% y-o-y in 2006

MOSCOW - Russia's state-run oil company Rosneft will produce 8% more oil by the end of the year than in 2005, the company president said Tuesday.


Georgia claims energy crisis 'over'

A recent agreement signed with Azerbaijan and Turkey appears to have lessened Georgia’s gas woes just in time for the winter. But the country’s energy talks with Iran remain a wild card - both in terms of the Georgian government’s relationship with the United States, and its ability to do without higher-priced Russian gas.


Army Engineers Work to Improve Iraq's Oil Export


Court gives hope to price-gouging case

A federal appeals court on Tuesday revived California's claim for $1.4 billion in refunds to utility customers for high-priced electricity during and after the 2001-02 energy crisis, saying federal regulators failed to examine whether the state was gouged in long-term energy contracts.


EU New Joiners to Get Biofuel Crop Cash from 2007

BRUSSELS - The European Union's newest joiners, including Bulgaria and Romania, will receive subsidies starting in 2007 to support them growing more feedstock crops for producing biofuels, officials said on Tuesday.


Helping America Take the Lead: A Climate Exchange Video clips from a Sierra Club forum on climate change, including one of our pal, Vinod Khosla.


Oil Rig Shortage Slows Chevron Bid to Tap Gulf of Mexico Fields

A global shortage of deep-sea drilling rigs is costing Chevron precious time as it taps the Gulf, and the equipment deficit may keep oil prices high. A prime example is the $3 billion field dubbed Jack. Chevron and partner Devon Energy Corp. announced the deepest-ever well test there on Sept. 5. Politicians backing energy independence exulted. Investors sent Devon shares up 12 percent and Chevron's up 2.3 percent.

They didn't know the drilling rig Cajun Express had already plugged the Jack well and moved to another urgent job. Drilling at Jack won't resume until at least July, Thornburg says.


This guy's making a movie about peak oil, and he didn't even link to us. What a Way To Go: Life At the End of Empire

A middle class white guy comes to grips with Peak Oil, Climate Change, Mass Extinction, Population Overshoot and the demise of the American Lifestyle.


Gas prices jump in California, U.S.

Retail gasoline prices rose nationwide and jumped substantially in California over the last week, the federal government said Monday, a partial reflection of crude oil prices that have stayed above $60 a barrel for the last three weeks.


Auto trade group names Democrat to top post

Major auto companies on Tuesday turned to tech industry lobbyist Dave McCurdy, a former Democratic U.S. representative, to lead their legislative and regulatory initiatives in Washington.

...Automakers in 2007 will be looking for Congress to approve consumer tax breaks and incentives for companies to retool and develop plants for manufacturing more vehicles that run on ethanol and other alternative fuels.


Honda to invest in eco-friendly cars after record year


Some European birds delay migration due to warmth

OSLO - Some European birds have failed to fly south for the winter, apparently lured to stay by weeks of mild weather that experts widely link to global warming.


It is time to accept Interstate 69 and move on

Some argue we don’t need a new road between Indianapolis and anywhere. We should be rebuilding the rail system we had back in the 1920s. Sorry, my friends, the automobile is a far superior means of transportation than any train. Most of the people who support mass transit would not ride it even if they had the opportunity. They do not want to wait in the rain, walk significant distances with packages, and be out at night unprotected by steel and a powerful motor.

As for the oil shortage: as the price of oil rises, alternatives will be sought and offered. That’s the way the market works. The “peak oil” problem is a crisis that we will never see.


New Zealand's response to Peak Oil

The Transport and Oil Working Group of the New Zealand Sustainable Energy Forum has just released Peak Oil: A Major Issue for New Zealand [PDF, 60 KB], which is designed as a quick guide for the public and the media on what the Peak Oil issue is about, how it affects New Zealand, and how New Zealand should respond.


Impeach the President: The Case Against Bush and Cheney, a New Book - Reason #8:

Denying global warming, disregarding peak oil, and placing oil industry profits over the long-term survival of the human race and the viability of the planet.


Approaching the Year's End

As we approach the end of the year, there will not be a similar energy crisis, because Russia has taken its own lesson from the crisis. At any rate, because it has come to an agreement with the Ukraine, there is no possibility of a crisis emerging. However, it is obvious from now that at the end of this year and the beginning of next year there will be other issues related to natural gas and these will lead to other problems nearby in the region.


Book Ideas for Christmas

Here's a warning: this generation that is alive now is in for a very rough ride. While the above books are gut-wrenching and entertaining in a reality-TV sort of way, The Long Emergency paints an alarming picture of a world filled with catastrophe. Kunstler is an excellent writer, and a very well informed one. Being forewarned with so much insight, and so much sensible detail about the "converging catastrophes of the 21st century" may be depressing for some, I found it very helpful.


Wind On The Line

Despite the potential of wind as an alternate energy source for Idaho, a recent proposal by Idaho Power Company makes some wind developer plans seem quixotic at best. The state's largest utility wants some of the windmill wild-catters to pay for power grid upgrades to transmission lines and then some.
Mexican oil production for November has been published. At 3,163,000 bpd, production was 10,000 bpd down on October and about 150,000 bpd down on November last year. This was the lowest monthly production of the year so far.
mmm NGLs down heavily as well, interesting.
GWB would be wild as a gambler (or running a hedge fund). The more he loses the more he bets. He reminds me of Bogie in that movie about the strawberries.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/19/AR2006121900880_pf.html
hell i though you were going to link me to a bogie movie   i've seen them all (i think)   but the one about the strawberries     ?  you lost me
Elwood: The strawberries part might be wrong. I think it was called "The Caine Mutiny". He played a chief poobah on a boat who thought they were stealing his strawberries (I think it was strawberries).
  It was ice cream, might have been strawberry ice cream though... Great flick BTW
Captain Queeg had earlier (on another ship) solved a mystery involving missing strawberries; he insisted that the same logic would provide the same solution to the missing ice cream; that is why he collected all those keys, working on the theory that somebody had an unauthorized key.

People who believe they can repeat past victories with methods that worked before would be well-advised to look at evidence to see whether the underlying situation has changed. Nothing fails like success.

"Nothing fails like success."
Nice one Sailorman! Is this yours?
A credo for a doomer like me.
i think dubya and his neocon handlers were intoxicated" with bush's daddys success
I don't know who originated "Nothing fails like" success, but I saw it in a Peter Drucker book some thirty years ago.

Another nice variation is:
Nothing fails like excess.

Could be the motto of our wasteful "happy motoring" society in the U.S.

I put this late in yesterday's Drumbeat. I am willing to put up $1,000 that oil won't hit $100 in 2007. Consider it confidence that I am correct about the reasons the Saudis dropped their exports. If I am wrong and they have actually peaked, then oil will probably hit $100 in 2007.

If we can find an agreeable arrangement, I will bet $100 per person for up to 10 people, or any combination up to $1,000. If there is enough interest, I may bump it up to $2,000. My suggestion would be that the money goes into a Paypal account by early in January. The account could be administered by one or more of the editors here. TOD could keep the accumulated interest for administering the account.

The bet would be for a specific contract on a specific benchmark crude. Something like the front contract on WTI.

Any interest?

Not from me. I'm a strong believer that the price of oil depends not just on the availability of oil, but on the availability of money, ie. it depends on interest rates.

That is why I think, for instance, the large fall we saw this year in the price of oil from $78, was due primarily to rising interest rates around the world. Unlike many, I don't think it was due to the high price of oil reducing demand, I think it was the high price of money which reduced demand. I tend to believe in many of Andrew McKillop's arguments in this regard.

So, since I don't claim to know what is going to happen to interest rates, I am not going to bet on the price of oil.

I'm a strong believer that the price of oil depends not just on the availability of oil, but on the availability of money, ie. it depends on interest rates.

This is true, which is what I think the "$100 oil in 2007" voices are missing. For me, betting against $100 right now looks like a safe bet.

So you're basically selling a future call contract?  You will pay above $100 and you get paid below $100.  Have you done anything to hedge your bet?  :)
It could be possible for oil to be peaking, AND for the price of oil to go down. e.g., if the housing bubble continues to pop, we could have a deflationary recession a la Japan 1990s.
Actually I firmly believe next year is deflation, followed by excessive fed credit which translates to higher than avg inflation, but I'm starting to moderate my view on hyper inflation ala Wiemer.

I just read that all of 2005 the Fed conducted three permanant fed open market operations.  As of this morning they have conducted NINE!  3X's as much credit was pumped into this economy in the last year, than the preceding year.  The pump is being primed.  Oh and we're only talking about $14B ((this year)) against roughly $4B last year.

What is an "open market" operation?
RR: Actually, oil staying under $100 in 2007 doesn't prove your point. Even if Saudi production has peaked and is declining, $100 in 2007 is unlikely IMO (but quite possible).
Of course it doesn't "prove" the point. But you have a much higher probability of $100 oil if Saudi has peaked. If they haven't, then I think there is near zero chance of getting $100 oil. Since I have seen a number of voices here call for $100 oil, I just want to make it clear that I am willing to put some money up in a friendly wager.
Some people would argue that Saudi production has already peaked, yet oil still didn't reach $100 per barrel.

Widespread acceptance that Saudi oil has peaked would probably guarantee oil went to $100 (barring interest rate increases), but the peak itself might not be enough to do so.

And then there is Russia....
Well... I'm not quite sure 1 year is enough of a timeframe to validate this. The cushion of petroleum stocks and "soft" demand (curtailed by minor price increases) is enough to keep the lower price party going for much longer IMO. 100$/barrel will require not "peaking" but crashing of SA oil ouput.

BTW crude oil stocks are down 6.3 mln.barrels. Maybe OPEC will manage to spoil our Christmas parties after all...

"Even if Saudi production has peaked and is declining, $100 in 2007 is unlikely IMO (but quite possible)." By the same token, oil trading at or above $100 is not proof that Saudi production has peaked. I think there are a number of geopolitical scenarios that could see oil above $100. A serious escalation in Iran, a regional escalation of the mess in Iraq, or a successful terror strike on a key Saudi oil installation would all have a chance of pushing oil to a $100 spike... Only the latter scenario would involve a reduction in Saudi exports, albeit a totally involuntary one.
Count me out as well. I happen to believe that the price of oil is controlled by the FEDs through derivative trading,  and has very little to do with perceived shortages. Since I dont know what they have in mind, I dont know what the price will be.
I tend to agree with you on this to some extent.  I believe there are times they intervene and times they let it ride.
Robert, I am totally convinced by your arguments and the data I've seen, and if I was to participate I would be betting on your side (with your permission of course).

But I have reasons to refrain. 2007 is preelection year. Who knows what the neocons will think out of desperation for losing office. Israel bombing Iran - and there you lose otherwise certain (in my view) bet. Your arguments may still be valid but in the end it may encourage the cry-wolf-and-lose -credibility crowd.

Basically every year is 'pre-election' year by that standard :P  Come on now, lets leave the conspiracy theories out of it this time.
Simply labeling something a "conspiracy theory" is not helping your point. If I magically forgot all that happened in past 4 years and somebody told me that the US presidency will use fabricated intelligence information to invade a sovereign country (on a preelection year, what a coincidence) I would have told him to beat it. So would you, right? Now wake up for the reality of today's world which is already slightly mad.

Israel bombing Iran with US support is a quite probable threat and you need to be much more argumentative to convince me on the opposite.

I'm sorry, but stating that the 'evil neocons are going to try to get revenge for losing sometime next year' is a conspiracy theory.
Please quote me where I stated that. This is entirely your interpretation and I did not even hint something in that direction.

Partly it is my fault because I did not extend my thought, I just assumed you know what I was implying. Inventing an external enemy and/or fighting it is a century-old priom used by any government to strengthen its positions at home. Just look at the Bush ratings prior Afghanistan or Iraq. Just look at the timing of all wars lead by the US in the past 50 years. Every president has his war, have you heard of that? And please don't tell me that you are from those "war on terror" believers, because I'll totally write you off.

Levin: It is amazing how few remember how popular the Iraq adventure was when GWB landed on that aircraft carrier (I think he had his approval rating up to 91%).
Actually, W's approval ratings hit the high 80s/low 90s in the wake of 9/11 and then began their inexorable decline. By early 2003, they were in the high 50s/low 60s. The "success" of our invasion of Iraq pushed his approval ratings back up to the high 60s/high 70s - appallingly high for the job he'd done as of that date, but still nowhere near 90.

Complete history here: http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob1.htm

Piano: My mistake. I mixed it up with the honeymoon period post 9/11.
"But I have reasons to refrain. 2007 is preelection year. Who knows what the neocons will think out of desperation for losing office."

How would you like to interpret this phrase?

Like this you dim witted miscreant....

Gee...this woman name Valerie Plame gets outted after her husband makes some rather snide comments about the reality of Iraq before we entered which it so happens was the TRUTH.  However his family takes the fall with him.  Yeah thinking that people want to get back at you for losing is a conspiracy theory.  What an idiot.

I don't think Levin is a native English speaker. His statement is ambiguous, but I think he was referring to what the neocons would do because they were afraid they'd lose the next election. Not out of revenge for the election already past.
I was assuming it and was surprised that some other interprations also were found... personally I find the idea that "revenge" could have any place in a political game where billions are at stake a pretty ridiculous one. This is not a soap opera for God's sake.

No, if they do it it will be out of the most simple and pure reason on Earth - greed for power (and money as it's flip side).

I invite you to join me in my New Year's resolution never again to respond to trolls.