DrumBeat: December 21, 2006
Posted by threadbot on December 21, 2006 - 9:55am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Turkmen death puts gas supplies in turmoil: One analyst says situation could become 'a nightmare' as country, which supplies huge amounts of energy to Europe, struggles to fill leadership void.
MOSCOW (Reuters) -- The death of Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov on Thursday plunges Europe's energy security into doubt, with the prospect of a struggle for power raising the specter of a new gas crisis.The self-styled "Turkmenbashi" or "Head of the Turkmen" left no designated successor to lead the autocratic state, which had planned to step up its gas exports to help Russian gas monopoly Gazprom meet a quarter of Europe's needs.
"I expect there will be a massive fight for power now in Turkmenistan and it's likely to take place between pro-U.S. and pro-Russian forces," said a Russian gas industry source, who declined to be named.
"Gas will become the main coin of exchange and the key asset to get hold of. There shouldn't be any short-term problems with supplies to Russia and onward but in the mid-term it could become a nightmare."
The Cautious U.S. Boom in Oil Shale
GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. — Oil shale has never made an American company more than a nickel or two; quite a few, in fact, have lost countless millions over the last century trying to cook oil out of the rock. R. Glenn Vawter, who has worked as an executive for many of the losers, knows all that only too well.
Iran admits oil projects suffering
Iran’s oil minister on Wednesday admitted that Tehran was having trouble financing oil projects, in a rare acknowledgment of the economic cost of its nuclear dispute.
The Economist: energy Argentina’s "biggest worry"
Industry sources warn of blackouts in 2007 if weather conditions are unfavorable. Fear of blackouts has suppressed investment in energy-intensive businesses, such as steel, aluminum and petrochemicals.
Gadgets drive up energy bills and emissions
Consumer appetites for electrical gadgets will push up UK energy consumption by 82% over the next five years, a report warned today.
Zimbabwe: Threat to seize oil firms
HARARE - President Robert Mugabe has threatened to seize the facilities of leading oil companies operating in the country and use them to distribute fuel, accusing them of refusing to cooperate with government.
India: Scarcity of LPG, Kerosene Artificial
People queuing up at Public Distribution Shops, popularly known as ration shops, as early as 6 am, braving the morning chill, has become a common sight in the city. It is just to obtain the monthly quota of kerosene.
Kuwait: Ministry hikes campaign to cut use of water, power
The Ministry has intensified its public awareness campaign on the importance of conserving water and electricity to avoid the recurrence of the energy crisis experienced in Kuwait last summer.
Saudi Aramco Introduces Second Grade Gasoline
The Premium 95 gasoline is being sold at 75 halalas a liter, while the Premium 91 costs 60 halalas only. The new gasoline is aimed to provide a more economical choice for most of the car owners and drivers in the Kingdom.
Pakistan - Country faces energy crisis: Another weekly holiday under study
ISLAMABAD, Dec 20: Pakistan is facing a severe energy crisis and its oil consumption has gone up by about 80 per cent mainly due to law and order problem in Balochistan, increased village gasification ahead of elections and low hydel power production, senior government officials said.The situation is such that the government is considering restrictions on night-time commercial activity across the country to conserve the amount of energy available.
As part of conservation measures, the proposal to observe Saturday as second weekly off has again come under consideration.
Pakistan: Furnace oil import may exceed estimates by $1b
ISLAMABAD: The import bill of furnace oil would exceed the budget estimates by around $1 billion in the current fiscal as the Water and Power Development Authority has demanded the government to allow it to import the furnace oil to avoid an energy crisis including acute power and gas shortages following the discontinuation of natural gas to the power producers and the overall industrial sector, Daily Times has learnt.
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez has requested and received the resignation of his ministers, including energy and oil minister Rafael Ramirez.
Sunoco Logistics to build crude tanks for Motiva
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP said Wednesday that it has reached a deal to build a 2 million barrel crude oil storage facility at its Nederland, Texas, tank farm to support the proposed expansion of Motiva Enterprises' Port Arthur, Texas, refinery.
Russia closing another door of oil availability to the United States
Another door of oil availability for the United States and other major oil consumers may be rapidly closing, as president Vladimir Putin's Russia is retaking control of his nation's vast energy resources.
Iran and China's CNOOC Sign $16 Billion Gas Deal
Thirsty Japan Gambles over Iraqi Oil
Basically, as the United States fooled the whole international community over its real intention of invading Iraq, the Japanese government has so far withheld the main reason behind its full cooperation with the Bush administration in Iraq.
Farmland as an Investment Asset
Over the past half century, U.S. farmland prices rose though two long bull markets, punctuated by a short, severe crash.
Energy-Saving Software Sales Boom as Corporate America Goes Green
This morning Green Wombat spoke to a CEO whose startup tech company's revenues have shot up from $400,000 to $4 million in two years. Verdiem isn't about Web 2.0, it doesn't do online video or mobile social networking for Generation Z. It makes software that - wait for it - manages corporate personal computer networks to lower energy usage.
John Michael Greer: Nawida 2150: Q&A
Q: What about the other children? Can’t their parents afford to send them to school?A: Partly that; partly, some people don’t see the point of schooling their children; and partly, some children just aren’t suited to book learning. They’ll be perfectly good farmers and crafters even if they can’t read a word of Old Time English, and the doors illiteracy closes to them probably wouldn’t open for them anyway.
The Petroleum Deterrent: How energy dependence is weakening the foreign influence of the United States, and what to do about it.
For the first time in three decades, energy has become a central problem in foreign policy. The surge in oil prices—and in oil revenues for producers—has strengthened the ability of such nations as Russia, Iran and Venezuela to pursue political and strategic objectives of their own. Even worse, in the Middle East, oil money has trickled down to support terrorism. Energy producers with rising revenues are far more impervious to U.S. pressures. Thus, the reality of the oil market has reduced the influence of the United States and its allies.
Russia threatens to cut off gas supplies
Russia's state-controlled natural gas monopoly threatened to cut off supplies to Georgia if it does not agree to a 125 percent increase in the price of gas imports, a company official said Wednesday.
Iraqis in tentative oil law deal
Baghdad - Iraqi officials have reached a tentative deal on an oil law that would allow the regions to negotiate oilfield contracts with foreign investors but gives the central government the final say.
Total: 3 guards killed in Nigeria attack
LAGOS, Nigeria - Armed men attacked a Total SA oil pumping station in Nigeria in an overnight raid that left three security guards dead and shut down the facility, a company official said Thursday.
The Geopolitics of Energy Security: The Rise of Asia
ADELAIDE - With energy security appearing as a major concern on policy agendas of many Asian nations, both large and small, the option to go nuclear is gaining increasing support in many capitals.
Investing in oil drilling equipment
Through his 37 years of experience in energy sector investment banking, Simmons has lived through several booms and busts, witnessing the evolution of oil field technology from the front lines. So his view that "the technology pipeline is nearly empty" does not bode well for those waiting on a great free-market solution to the ever-present challenge of depletion.
Norway's energy merger is driven by growth potential
Cambodia oil, blessing or curse?: "Cambodians could easily follow Nigeria's footsteps"
Bush signs bill opening the Gulf of Mexico to new oil and gas drilling
Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: The Council of Governments Starts Planning
The Metropolitan Washington Area Council of Governments (COG) recently released its 2006 Strategic Energy Plan. Reports like this of course are lengthy —220 pages—- and are unlikely to be read outside of a narrow circle of local officials and energy professionals. As it deals with a topic soon to be vital to those of us who live around the nation's capitol, I thought it would be worthwhile to read it for you and pass on some insights as to what COG thinks we should be doing.
Kansas utility's plan faces scrutiny
TOPEKA, Kan. - Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is considering a request from environmentalists that she ban new coal-fired power plants amid concerns about plans to build three of them in western Kansas.
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Washington Warming to Southern Plants
A warming climate in the Washington area is beginning to affect the area's trees, with cold-loving species finding the weather less welcoming and southern transplants thriving, according to findings released yesterday by the National Arbor Day Foundation. ...The findings also help give an unexpected answer to one of the region's oldest questions. If Washington wasn't the South before, then now -- at least from a gardener's perspective -- the South seems to be coming to Washington. "You could say D.C. is the new North Carolina," said Bill McLaughlin, a curator at the U.S. Botanic Garden on the Mall. |
The Hidden Opportunity in Global Warming
The U.S. media might have missed the significance of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, but the public shouldn't miss the message: It's about hope.
Kurt Cobb: Cuba's strange path
Cuba has become the poster child for a transition away from an agricultural economy based on fossil fuel inputs and for a society focused on self-sufficiency. Strangely, it may owe much of its success in this regard to its relative backwardness and its isolation from the world community. The implications for so-called modern industrial countries in a world approaching peak oil couldn't be more striking. To understand this, it is worth briefly tracing Cuba's path since the Cuban revolution.
Can they really follow through on any of these threats and not expect some repercussions? More and more, I think the countries they threaten are seeing the threats as hot air and Russia really won't go through with it.
Opinions?
What do you all think of Russia's energy bluster?
In the past 15 years, Russia has been robbed blind. And Russians still have a strong sense of pride. Now that they begin to rise up from the gutter a little bit, their first intent is to make clear that they no longer wish to be anyone's dog.
They know very well that their energy reserves won't last forever, and they're trying to makle the best of it. Their best, not US best.
If you look at what went down with Shell at Sakhalin, without all the usual western rhetoric, you might conclude that Shell tried to pull a fast one on Russia. The deals were signed pre-Putin, when Russia was still weak, and that was seen as an opportunity. They gave a total cost estimate of $10 billion, sigend a deal with one of the Russian companies (Rosneft?!) on that basis, and came back with a new estimate of $20 billion a few weeks later. Which would mean Russia would have to wait years before ever seeing a dime.
Now Vlad flexed his muscles, and Shell will sign a deal with Gazprom. Our media imply that he throws everyone out, but that's simply not true.
The same happens with Chavez: there is a huge effort to make him look like a crazy dictator, who only rules because the oil allows him to "hand out presents to the poor". Well, what is he supposed to do? Leave his people to rot in the same squalor that decades of western rule in Venezuela's energy sector put them in? Is he handing out presents or giving them their fair share?
So, I would say the best we can do is to try to see the world through their eyes, not those of our media. It's too one-sided, and it gives a distorted picture of what's really going on. Somehow, if we want to understand these matters, we'll first have to admit that the worldview we are fed through our schools, TV, and papers, is anything but neutral or realistic.
This is not to say that former satellites like the Baltic states don't have a genuine bone to pick with Russia, but that brings you straight back to Venezuela, once a US dog.
A more complete background can be found here.
Chavez Moves Forward.
It is difficult to find balanced information on Chavez. The only book I have read was so pro-Chavez it made me uncomfortable. All things being equal, I think Chavez has to be given the benefit of the doubt, at least in terms of what he wants for Venezuelans and the region.
I lived in Venezuela as a child, attending school in spanish and living in the economy (and a trailer). I was relatively privileged, but I got to see the very, very poor and the images never left me.
Good to see that at least you acknowledge a bit of history in how Russia deals with its immediate neighbors.
But since those neighbors have always been bit players (ask the Poles) in the great power games, LevinK's comments show another difference - those who were never part of Mother Russia can look at the situation a bit differently than some of the others - ask the Chechens.
Not that anybody much cares about the Chechens anyways, as long as Russia delivers on its energy contracts. As a matter of fact, it seems like an unwritten part of those contracts includes a no-criticism clause in that matter.
I will say, just imagine what the world would have been like if the Bush/Cheney team hadn't been running things - would Putin be so aggressive in defending Russian interests? Or would the various former Soviets republics be so clearly seen as pawns on the great power chess board?
As noted in another thread, I find Putin's KGB past disturbing, but then, Bush I was also a former secret policeman, so it isn't all that unique to see such people use energy as a source of money and power. Or to watch an oligarchic clique come to dominate a country's politics.
There is another level to consider, though. Currently, flawed and hypocritical though it may be, the EU has a certain enlightened self-interest in seeing Russia develop into a reliable customer which doesn't treat its citizens as members of a gulag or as disposable property of the hyper rich. (Turkey more or less belongs to the same category - and to the extent that Turkey has improved its human rights and the lot of the Kurds, it has been mainly due to EU 'encouragement.')
If Russia was to turn to China as its major future customer, the Chinese would care nothing about how the Russian government dealt with its own citizens. And please note, I was talking about the EU - in the case of the U.S. and Japan, neither country seems to have any interest in Russia except to see it keep falling apart, and hope to make a killing on picking up the pieces.
Excerpt from F. Wiliam Engdahl, Oct 7 2006:
The Emerging Russian Giant Plays its Cards Strategically
The first act of post-war occupation by Washington was to declare null and void any contracts between the Iraqi government and Russia, China and France. Iraqi oil was to be an American affair, handled by American companies or their close cronies in Britain, the first victory in the high-stakes quest, `where the prize ultimately lies.'
This was precisely what Cheney had alluded to in his 1999 London speech. Get the Middle East oil resources out of independent national hands and into US-controlled hands. The military occupation of Iraq was the first major step in this US strategy. Control of Russian energy reserves, however, was Washington's ultimate `prize.'
De-construction of Russia: The `ultimate prize'
For obvious military and political reasons, Washington could not admit openly that its strategic focus, since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, had been the dismemberment or de-construction of Russia, and gaining effective control of its huge oil and gas resources, the `ultimate prize.' The Russian Bear still had formidable military means, however dilapidated, and she still had nuclear teeth.
In the mid-1990's Washington began a deliberate process of bringing one after the other former satellite Soviet state into not just the European Union, but into the Washington-dominated NATO. By 2004 Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia all had been admitted into NATO, and the Republic of Georgia was being groomed to join.
This surprising spread of NATO, to the alarm of some in western Europe, as well as to Russia, had been part of the strategy advocated by Cheney's friends at the Project for the New American Century, in their `Rebuilding America's Defenses' report and even before.
Already in 1996, PNAC member and Cheney crony, Bruce Jackson, then a top executive with US defense giant, LockheedMartin, was head of the US Committee to Expand NATO, later renamed the US Committee on Nato, a very powerful Washington lobby group.
The US Committee to Expand NATO also included PNAC members Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Stephen Hadley and Robert Kagan. Kagan's wife is Victoria Nuland, now the US Ambassador to NATO. From 2000 - 2003, she was a foreign policy advisor to Cheney. Hadley, a hardline hawk close to Vice President Cheney, was named by President Bush to replace Condoleezza Rice as his National Security Adviser.
The warhawk Cheney network moved from the PNAC into key posts within the Bush Administration to run NATO and Pentagon policy. Bruce Jackson and others, after successfully lobbying Congress to expand NATO to Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary in 1999, moved to organize the so-called Vilnius Group that lobbied to bring ten more former Warsaw Pact countries on Russia's periphery into NATO. Jackson called this the `Big Bang.'
President Bush repeatedly used the term `New Europe' in statements about NATO enlargement. In a July 5, 2002 speech hailing the leaders of the Vilnius group, Bush declared, `Our nations share a common vision of a new Europe, where free European states are united with each other, and with the United States through cooperation, partnership, and alliance.'
Lockheed Martin's former executive, Bruce Jackson, took credit for bringing the Baltic and other members of the Vilnius Group into NATO. Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 1, 2003, Jackson claimed he originated the `Big Bang' concept of NATO enlargement, later adopted by the Vilnius Group of Baltic and Eastern European nations. As Jackson noted, his `Big Bang' briefing `proposed the inclusion of these seven countries in NATO and claimed for this enlargement strategic advantages for NATO and moral (sic) benefits for the democratic community of nations.' On May 19, 2000 in Vilnius, Lithuania, these propositions were adopted by nine of Europe's new democracies as their own. It became the objectives of the Vilnius Group.' Jackson could also have noted the benefits to US military defense industry, including his old cronies at Lockheed Martin, with the creation of a vast new NATO arms market on the borders to Russia.
With the risk of being accused of too pro-Russian, I don't think that Chechens had any valid reasons for their rebellion aside from the greed of their leaders. I am still to see evidence they were being oppressed in some way as a part of the Russian Federation before the conflict started. And I am still to see what would happen in US if for example Texas formed unofficial government that decided to declare independancy so that the same government can make good money of the oil flow from the Gulf.
Historically Russia is no more good or bad than any big country with some empiristical ambitions. What truly matters is how much they are playing by the rules. I would argue that in violating international laws, interfering with internal affairs or invading sovereign countries they stand far behind US (if comparable at all), not to mention the past performance of Germany or say France on those.
Every state will defend its own interests and territory, and there is no question Russia drew the line at having its own traditional borders being changed.
The EU follows its own interests, and commenting about what happens inside Russia territory is considered an internal matter, better left to the Russians to handle - while politely ignoring what that means. If energy is delivered as per contract, so much the better.
I do think that an Estonian has a very different opinion of Russia compared to a Czech or a Pole, and that a number of non-Russians within Russia's territory feel differently yet again, regardless of the merits of their claims, since Russia expanded its territory through force, and unlike in the U.S., which expanded into an 'empty' continent, the conquered people already there were pretty much left alive after the Russians took over. Then add what Stalin did, and you get a mixture which doesn't fit well into Western frameworks at all.
My opinions don't fit well in this debate, most likely - neither the West nor the Russians are on the side of the angels, as they both want to exploit what they have in service of a system that mainly represents the interests of the rich and powerful, though Western Europe is certainly a more comfortable place to live for most of its citizens. This is the real world, not what Hollywood likes to portay as reality.
In a sane world past transgression, especially old ones should not be a reason for bad relations or hostility between countries. Which makes Europe not the most sane place on Earth, I'm afraid. Baltic countries + Poland have some historical reasons for their anti-russian stanza, but IMO this is just on the surface nowadays. Currently it is mostly fueled by the new Big Brother's influence - EU and USA need them as an outpost against Russia, which must stand still and be happy with its role of resource supplier. All the Chechnya and human rights talk is just another coin in this game - have you heard for example Putin criticizing UK's policy in Ireland or Spain's in Southern Basque?
The how-the-Russia-treats-its-own-citizens talk is another one of those hypocritical double talks used in the west in this game, which displays just the surface of the problem. The truth is that the West proactively participated in the impoverishing of Russia and dismantling of the Russian state in the 90s. It is also in/directly responsible for creating the oligarchy, which is already an existing factor in Russia. How impoverished, criminalized and robbed out country could maintain the western standards of "human rights" is an absolute enigma for me.
In the end it would be stupid to say that I am sympatetic to the Russia as a country, but I'm definately sympatetic to the current Russian government. Putin is doing just the right thing for them, restoring its sovereignity, limiting the influence of the oligarchs (yes, he did that! why everyone avoids to call Khudochovsky an oligarch, what he was?) and creating the framework for a stable and prosperous Russia. Which is also in the long-term EU and US interest if they were only able to look past securing their next dose. BTW Germany is faring quite well with maintaining a balanced policy towards Russia and only your anti-nuclear energy self-delusion is stopping me from nominating it for a most pragmatic post-PO nation.
Ironically, the power company EnBW wants to extend the operating life of one its older nuclear plants, and part of the reason was the company's concern for the environment. As quickly pointed out, EnBW is building coal plants, so concern for the environment seems to be much lower on the company's priorities than money. Germans tend to favor conservation and efficiency, which somehow never seems to fit well into a system where more energy used means more profit for the energy companies - and more contributions to various politicians, who then ensure their campaign contributions by ensuring energy companies continue to profit from their current business model.
Leaving aside the practical concerns, I would be thrilled if essentially all of the currently operating, cooling fluid dependent reactors were shut down - what an incredibly stupid design concept, in my eyes. At least Germany plans this over the long term, and that social consensus remains in force, it seems. If EnBW had applied to extend the life of its most modern facilities, they may have had a better political chance - but the profit margin would have been much lower. And that is yet another proof of my real problem with a profit oriented system and reactors which fail horribly if not maintained at a high and expensive standard of engineering, servicing, training, redundancy, and testing - which a company finds a burden to its bottom line.
I am not anti-nuclear against safe designs, though the waste problem is not exactly solved.
Interesting exchange of views - though as a final note, I think Putin is more or less replacing oligarchs, not an oligarchic system, but it is true that the current heads of the system have a more consistent view of Russia's needs, as compared to the simple need to get as rich as possible, regardless of any other consideration.
If Texas were to ceceed from the Union again like it did in 1861 I'd say let it go.
The whole Texan thing is just an act.
W is no more a Texan than Jeb is a Floridian.
Correction: Gore and Edwards do not have a stake in Halliburton and their sweetheart deals. Sum dae I gotta lern two prufreed.
Yes, you're right. Our media could be seriously improved on.
Which journalist that we don't like should we shoot first?
Most former Soviet republics were keen to get off the russian orbit and some of them like Georgia quickly fell under strong US influence. I find it funny that they want both to have benefits as former Russian partners and in the same time play against russian interests internationally. Any normal person would agree they can't have it both, can they?
What I find encouraging is that the russians themselves started to get used to and don't give a damn about all that anti-russian bullcrap pouring out of Western media. The country is emancipating and is already able to follow its independant policy and defend its interests. Nothing to do with Elcin's Russia.
So, energy as a political tool? Certainly. Ask the Saudis, or Chavez.
Putin grandstands and blusters - as pols and poker players do.
Non-expert mainstream opinion from the Switz.
I guess the Eastern European folks might respond tonight because of the time difference.
Keeping alive these many lights of Christmas
This week I had a contest with my family to see who could most closely guess the power consumption of our Christmas tree. The guesses ranged from 30 watts (my guess) to 150 watts. Using our Kill-A-Watt meter we determined it was just over 100 watts.
I'd like to go with the Phillips LED xams lights, but my wife likes white colored bulbs and she thinks the LED "white" are to cold and blue looking. Not to mention, I'm not sure if the cost of the lights will offset the cost.
If you have xmas tree lights which flash or cycle, then you must use this technique there as well. My lights are always on and consume constant power, so I can simply put my meter on "watts" and directly measure the power.
The color of the white ones is strange (I call it moonlight), but can be made nicer with some warm highlights, like a lot of Gold and Green around them, or a few Reds, etc..
Private individuals gain nothing except admiration, but as that is a precious and rare commodity....
The down-homey universalist message - Santa! hearts! Ribbons! Mother Mary! Disco lights! Stars (as in astral bodies) is dispiriting.
This year's child survey shows that the number one `best thing in the world' is to be a celebrity, see Daily Mail:
http://tinyurl.com/yl7q85
Glitter over substance? Waste as a symbol of domination? End of the world anomie and the descent into slavish sentimentalism?
Emblematic, for sure.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/12/21/12969/
I think conservative Republicans will pick some point to throw Bush under the bus, and yet try to retain their same broad values.
That might fly, or the Republicans might decide they have to reposition themselves more broadly. It's tough for them though, because as I understand it their funding predominately comes from the far right.
(On a baser level, I think MSNBC is positioning itself a bit, and trowing Bush under the bus as part of a ratings strategy. That gives us back some missing perspectives in cable news ... but it is not necessarily high morality.)