DrumBeat: December 22, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 12/22/06 at 1:27 PM EDT]

Podcast: Down to the Last Cheap Drop

Falls Church News-Press peak oil columnist and former CIA analyst Tom Whipple discusses peak oil with retired State Department analyst George Kenney.

We Don't Know Jack

Sometimes I feel sorry for journalists on the energy beat. Most of them are your basic college-educated, liberal arts generalists, with a flair for communication but not necessarily math or science.

Unfortunately, in a world waking up to the fearsome reality of peak oil, good numbers are hard to come by. This is especially true in the oil business, where “tight holing”—keeping information top secret—is a term as old as the business itself.


Plant trees, disband the army, work together: the Tuscan way of surviving collapse

But not all societies collapse so completely. There are cases in which a society manages to contain decline and to keep its structure, its traditions, and its way of life. One may be the decline of Tuscany after the great expansion of the Renaissance, a case that had many points in common with the fall of the Roman Empire, but which was not so abrupt and devastating. Centuries of history are a complex story to summarize in a few pages but, as a Tuscan, I think I can at least sketch the main elements of what happened in Tuscany after the start of the decline, around the end of the 16th century. From this story, perhaps we can learn something useful for us today.


Total Oil Field Under Scrutiny

Total's license to extract oil at its Kharyaga field, its biggest Russian project, will be reviewed Friday by the country's subsoil resources agency as the government tightens pressure on foreign-led projects.


Opec nations raising oil prices in budgets

LONDON: Most Opec producers have for 2007 raised the oil prices on which they base their budgets, reducing the amount in reserve, as they grow more reliant on ready cash.


UN poised to pass Iran sanctions despite threat

Iran has threatened immediate retaliation, even though the proposed sanctions have been significantly watered down this week. Tehran's options include withdrawal from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, which would mean Iran would conduct its nuclear programme free from international monitoring, and possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the channel for 20% of the world's oil supplies.


Raymond J. Learsy: Finally, Wisdom in Washington On Our Oil Future

During this holiday season, I bring you tidings of great joy: Finally, an organization in Washington comprised of Americans of standing and competence that is speaking the truth about our precarious supply of oil and what we should do to meet proliferating threats around the world. The only real and lasting solution to energy security, these wise men proclaim, is to change consumption patterns here at home.


India: We are hungry for more energy

“India’s petroleum consumption is growing at 3-3.5%. Growth is likely to be 4-4.5%, going forward. Growth had slowed down in the past few years because of increasing efficiencies, new pipelines and substitution by LNG,” says BPCL’s chairman and MD Ashok Sinha.


Corn Again: 3 Reasons Ethanol Will Be Back

Stock prices are down and analysts are pessimistic, but a few recent announcements give reason for optimism.


Biofuel cash nice but farmers worry profits won't materialize

SASKATOON - The federal cash promised for Canadian biofuel development impressed proponents of increased renewable fuel use in Canada, but some caution was also expressed Wednesday that farmers could still see themselves shut out of the profits.


Windmills vs. Photovoltaics

Because the price of photovoltaics continues to drop - thin film costs are already approaching the magic $1.00 per watt level - combined with lower maintenance costs compared to windmills, our money is on photovoltaics.


Canada's cutting-edge energy model

...the wind farm is part of an ambitious plan to enable Prince Edward Island (PEI) - which has no significant coal, petroleum, natural gas, or hydro resources - to meet most of its electricity and 30 percent of its total energy needs from its own renewable resources by 2016.


Energy efficiency builds a new clientele

Builders and home buyers across the country are increasingly interested in so-called "zero-energy" or "green" building.


Incentives on Oil Barely Help U.S., Study Suggests

WASHINGTON — The United States offers some of the most lucrative incentives in the world to companies that drill for oil in publicly owned coastal waters, but a newly released study suggests that the government is getting very little for its money.


Nukes aimed at oil sands

Nuclear power in the oil patch is just a matter of time, according to Canada's Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn.


Iran turns from dollar to euro in oil sales

Iran is selling more of its oil for payment in euros than dollars as it seeks to shift its foreign currency reserves away from the depreciating currency of its political enemy, the United States.


New German community models car-free living


Chris Skrebowski: Open letter to Peter Jackson of CERA

I was surprised and somewhat saddened to read CERA’s curious attack on the concept of Peak Oil and the implicit attack on the Peak Oil community in your recent press release and report ‘Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down – Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources.


Weekly Offshore Rig Review: It Was a Very Good Year

With the final days of 2006 upon us, we will be taking a look back over the last twelve months to see what changes and trends have been occuring within the offshore rig fleet. This will be the final Weekly Offshore Rig Review of 2006, so we hope this year-end review is helpful and informative.


North Sea Energy Upstarts Teach an Old Dog New Tricks

Despite being one of the most heavily explored and exploited hydrocarbon basins in the world, leading figures in the offshore oil and gas industry say there are still riches to be extracted from beneath the North Sea. In many cases it is small independent oil companies that are proving them right.


Oil prices to remain high but below 2006 records

The record oil prices of 2006 are not expected to be repeated in 2007 but they will be high enough to fill the coffers of the oil companies and draw the ire of motorists.


Uganda: MPs Attack Govt Over Power Exports

UGANDA still exports electricity to neighbouring countries despite a crippling power crisis in the country, findings of a parliamentary committee have revealed.

A report by the Parliamentary Committee on National Economy assessing the current status of the economy shows that despite a deepening power shortage, partly due to low water levels, electricity exports to foreign countries have increased by 17 percent.


Hoping to head off crisis, Energy regulators keep an eye out for suspect trades

Every weekday morning, government analysts gather inside the headquarters of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to scour the nation's energy markets for fraud.


California regulators issue solar energy guide

SAN FRANCISCO - The California Pubic Utilities Commission on Thursday issued requirements and other details for a new energy program that aims to make the state one of the world's biggest producers of solar energy.


So Cal Ed signs biggest U.S. wind contract

LOS ANGELES - Electric utility Southern California Edison and Australian-based Allco Finance Group Ltd. have signed the biggest contract for wind power in U.S. history, the two companies said on Thursday.


Climate Change vs Mother Nature: Scientists reveal that bears have stopped hibernating

Bears have stopped hibernating in the mountains of northern Spain, scientists revealed yesterday, in what may be one of the strongest signals yet of how much climate change is affecting the natural world.


Gazprom grabs Sakhalin gas stake

State-owned Russian energy giant Gazprom has wrested control of a massive oil and gas field from Anglo-Dutch rival Shell.


Foreign oil facilities in Nigeria seized

LAGOS, Nigeria - Armed men attacked two foreign oil facilities in southern Nigeria on Thursday, and both shut down production following the assaults in the restive, oil-rich region. Royal Dutch Shell PLC, which came under attack earlier this week, began evacuating families of foreign workers, citing worsening security.


Oil hit a three-month high, then fell as traders dismissed the drop in inventories, attributing it to fog-related shipping delays.


Agency notes fear among nuclear plant workers: N.Y. workers afraid to raise safety issues, industry watchdog says

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. - Some workers at a nuclear power plant complex just north of New York City are reluctant to raise safety concerns because they fear retribution, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Thursday.


All at sea for Christmas? Rig workers celebrate early

I posted this late last night but because I wanted to make sure everyone who gets The Science Channel had a chance to watch it, I am posting it here. The show:
What If: The Oil Runs Out came on last night and it was great. It will be rebroadcast today at 2PM Eastern time and the same time again tomorrow.

Actually the show only touched the tip of the iceberg. It showed only the very beginnings of the problems if oil runs out. It stopped way short of showing the problems a few years down the road, well after peak oil. And of course they used the term "Oil Runs Out" instead of "Peak Oil". I did not like that at all, but the public is only becoming aware of the problem, so this kind of thing is to be expected. Anyway here is the post I posted last night:

-----------------------------
I just watched What if: The Oil Runs Out on the Science Channel. It is supposed to take place in Minneapolis and ANWR in 2016. I thought it was really great. No stupid cornucopians saying we still have 30 years before the peak. Though I do think 2016 was a bit optimistic.

At any rate, they were drilling in ANWR and found 16 feet of oil bearing rock instead of the 200 they were expecting. And this line, or pretty close to it anyway, was spoken by the narrator: "People don't realize how modest the contribution of ANWR would be under the most optimistic of circumstances."

It will be on later in the morning and tomorrow afternoon at 2PM Eastern time and again at 2PM Saturday.

Matt Simmons had a large part in the narration also.

Ron Pattterson

Seems to be the same as this BBC production?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/if/4989146.stm

also mentioned previously here

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/5/30/201214/896

It's on now (10am ET).
In Houston DTV. its on at 1 PM local time.
I'd like to see this.  The BBC probably did a better job than CNN.  

I don't get the Science Channel, but it will probably air on the Discovery Channel eventually.  

Pardon me but was this pointed out in the last two days or so?

http://www.opec.org/library/OPEC%20Bulletin/2006/pdf/OB11_122006.pdf

Urbansurvival pointed out that this OPEC report just releaed a few days ago mentions peak oil eleven times.  The report on PO start on pg 60 and is headlined, "Examing the end of cheap oil"

It's a major step if you ask me, but I've been bust and didnt know if this was mentioned or discussed here yet.  Curios on the thoughts of the members as the transition digs in IMHO.  PO is here people.

bust=busy
Dave discussed it some in his article about Angola and OPEC.

You might also be interested in Jerome a Paris' article at dKos.

Um, no.  Not on the last two days.  It was discussed three or four days ago, though.  ;-)
Leanan, the "Finally, Wisdom in Washington On Our Oil Future" link seems to be messed up - it points to today's drum beat.
Thanks.  It's fixed now.  
about the nyt article on gom deep water royalty incentives   a couple of things come to mind     1) this consultant arrived at "projected future reserves" of 57 billion barrels with the incentives and 56 billion without      one has to question the methodology   like making a "shaved beef" sandwich with a meat cleaver   2) the claim that oil companies pay 40% of revenue in royalties and taxes..........yeah  right
2) the claim that oil companies pay 40% of revenue in royalties and taxes..........yeah  right

OK, how much do they pay?

"ok, how much do they pay?"    you tell me     but before we get into this discussion    i can tell you that i have a contact within the irs   and   guess what    when an oil co disputes a tax law or tax ruling    the irs in most cases just rolls over and accepts the companies interpretation     you see the majors have much better tax attornys than the irs       they wrote most of the tax laws
you tell me

So you don't actually know? I thought you must when you commented on it. You can look at the annual report of any major oil company, and it will list all of their (audited) cash flows. If I recall correctly, XOM made $37 billion last year, but income taxes alone were over $100 billion.

i can tell you that i have a contact within the irs   and   guess what    when an oil co disputes a tax law or tax ruling    the irs in most cases just rolls over and accepts the companies interpretation     you see the majors have much better tax attornys than the irs       they wrote most of the tax laws

My second cousin has this friend, who knows a guy, who overheard his stepmother tell someone that your contact is just making things up.

robert  i dont give a shit if you believe me or not  in fact if am beginning to think you are a lot of hot air but that is beside the point  

exxon's latest annual report (2005)  lists revenue of $ $ 371 billion    and income taxes of $ 23 billion   or about 6 %     add that to 12.5 % royalty on federal leases and  you get less than 19%   (or 23% at 16 % royalty)  now before you get all huffy     yes i KNOW that exxon is a multinational   and this may not reflect the situation in the gom      but    tell me    robert  what % of royalty and taxes does exxon pay ?

robert  i dont give a shit if you believe me or not  in fact if am beginning to think you are a lot of hot air but that is beside the point

Wow, it didn't take you long to deplete your intellectual arsenal and go for the ad homs. Let's review. A story says oil companies pay 40% of revenue in taxes and royalties. You dispute this, with a "yeah right." Me, thinking you may have some special knowledge of this, ask how much they do pay. You indicate that you don't really know (and cite secret sources), demonstrating that you in fact were blowing hot air.  

but    tell me    robert  what % of royalty and taxes does exxon pay ?

You tell me, since you were the one that disputed the number. If I have time later (I have a 4-year old crying for me to play with him) I will try to find out what the $100 billion represented. That may have been taxes plus royalties, and I have it around here somewhere. But typically, the person making a claim or insinuation is expected to support it when called upon. That would be you in this case.

Happy Holidays.

go ahead do that   but you could save some of your precious time by going to the annual report filed with the sec   revenues $ 371 billion      income taxes $ 23 billion   (downloading the annual report to stockholders   takes tooooo   long   20.75 KB)

the holiday(s) has(have) already passed  (winter solstice) but you have a happy whatever

go ahead do that   but you could save some of your precious time by going to the annual report filed with the sec   revenues $ 371 billion      income taxes $ 23 billion   (downloading the annual report to stockholders   takes tooooo   long   20.75 KB)

Oh, I have that. Would you like to point out the section that refers to royalties?

Bottom line? Your comment "the claim that oil companies pay 40% of revenue in royalties and taxes..........yeah  right" was nothing but hot air. You don't actually know, so you have no basis for your "yeah right." And the reason I take exception to comments like that is that my industry has enough of a public relations problem without unwarranted assertions being made. Those unwarranted assertions merely help direct more hate at the industry. So, when you make comments like that, I will often ask for support. If you don't offer the support, and instead resort to name-calling, then that really tells us all we need to know about the assertion.

OK, had a little bit of time. From XOM's 2005 financials, they had revenues of $359 MM. They paid income taxes of $23 MM, excise taxes of $31 MM, and "other" taxes of $42 MM. My guess is that the latter category covers things like property taxes. Now, I agree that they only collected the excise tax. However, it is included in their revenue, so it is valid to include this tax as being paid as a percentage of their revenue. So, we have $96 million of their $359 million - 27% - being taxes of one kind or another, and we still haven't considered royalties.

I don't see that the 40% claim is out of the question. Again, if you have information to dispute the claim, please present it.

property taxes on gom oil leases .............. yeah   right
excise taxes on gom oil leases.............. another BIG   yeah right  
If "yeah right" is the best you can offer to those numbers taken directly from their financials, then I think we are done here. You have demonstrated very clearly that you can't support your "yeah right" with anything by more incredulity.
ok are you claiming that property taxes are paid to the federal government?
and yes some of the excise taxes can be "attributed" to production from oil and gas on federal  leases    but some, probably most, of these "flow through" taxes are from refined products are derived from foreign sources  and other oil and gas refined by exxon  
 are you claiming that all the excise taxes are "attributed to" production from federal owned leases ?  
and where did you get the $359 billion revenue figure?  my $ 371 billion came from the annual report filed with the sec
 
Last post from me, as it is apparent that you are not going to offer any support for your skepticism.

ok are you claiming that property taxes are paid to the federal government?

No, but you didn't say the federal government. I was responding to your claim, which was "the claim that oil companies pay 40% of revenue in royalties and taxes..........yeah  right". To be specific, the article said:

In the United States, the federal government's take -- royalties as well as corporate taxes -- is about 40 percent of revenue from oil and gas produced on federal property, according to Van Meurs Associates, an industry consulting firm that compares the taxes of all oil-producing countries.

In fact, it would be hard to pin down exactly how much of the revenue from federal lands they pay in royalties and taxes. However, the corporate tax rate is 35%. For the oil they extract and sell, they are going to pay 1). Royalties, and 2). Corporate income tax of 35% on the actual income from the sales. Again, it doesn't appear to me that 40% warrants any skepticism.

and where did you get the $359 billion revenue figure?

http://ccbn.mobular.net/ccbn/7/1532/1692/xls/data.xls

That is total operating revenue. But it's apples and oranges anyway. What is needed is the revenue from federal property, if that is the claim you take exception to.

Now, since you have never presented any numbers that would dispute the claim of 40%, I am done here.

i referenced the article in the nyt robert     and now you claim that i didnt specify the federal govt ?   did you just have a rosanne rosannadanna moment ?      
i referenced the article in the nyt robert     and now you claim that i didnt specify the federal govt ?

And yet you used not revenues from federal lands, but total global revenues (which include collected excise taxes!) to make your point. Go figure.

Since I hate to waste time, here is how a productive exchange could have gone.

You: 40%? Yeah right.

Me: How high do you think it is?

You: I don't know, but 40% seems high.

Me: Why do you think this, given that U.S. corporate taxes of 35% plus royalties must be paid?

You: OK, so maybe 40% is in the ballpark.

Instead, we were treated to a bit of burden-shifting, tapdancing, handwaving, and needless insults, when the bottom line was that you really had no basis at all for your skepticism.

corporate income taxes are NOT 35 % of revenues  
robert are you becoming delirious?     that 40 % is   taxes and royalties     now i showed you where exxon (since you brought up exxon)   paid about 6% of revenues in income taxes    and if you have a figure of other than 12.5 to 16 % in royalty  i would be glad to see it  but that is what the article states  (12.5% is standard)       so    w h e r e ' s   the  b e e f ?      

p.s.  and your whining  about the bad press  (your) industry gets    is ........................  well it's not very becoming   for a big shot oil executive like you

robert are you becoming delirious?     that 40 % is   taxes and royalties     now i showed you where exxon (since you brought up exxon)   paid about 6% of revenues in income taxes    and if you have a figure of other than 12.5 to 16 % in royalty  i would be glad to see it  but that is what the article states  (12.5% is standard)       so    w h e r e ' s   the  b e e f ?

See my numbers above taken directly from their financial statements. 27% of their 2005 revenues were paid as taxes of one form or another. This doesn't include any royalties. Your disbelief is entirely unjustified.  

p.s.  and your whining  about the bad press  (your) industry gets...

Nobody is whining. I am addressing your misrepresentation. As I said, we have enough bad press without needing you to start making stuff up.  

I've found RR's posts to be quite educational and factual, and I sincerely hope you and others like you don't drive him away.

I don't understand why you despise the hand that feeds you so virulently that you feel such a need be so viciously ad hominem.

I'm surprised delusional and dragonfly41 haven't somehow found a way to link me to elwoodelmore :P
Hothgor,
You surprised me. Usually by now those who started out as you did and had their hides nailed to the barn door would have fled for easier pickings elsewhere.

You stayed.

<laughs>

I don't believe I have had my 'hide nailed to the barn' so to speak.  People are vocal about their dislike of my opinions, but it doesn't bother me.  I think TOD would be a worse off place if I wasn't as vocal as I am.  The 'overwhelming consensus' on every issue is ridiculous.  No one seems to want to challenge the status quo so I guess I'm nailing myself to the proverbial cross, all in the name of playing the Devils Advocate :P

But the other thing about TOD - reality counts, apart from anyone's viewpoints.

You are correct in assuming you play a role in questioning various perspectives - but to the extent those perspectives are based on things like geological science or chemistry, they aren't really open to dispute.

This is a place where it comes down to what comes out of the pipeline, and for the last, oh 12 months and counting, there isn't noticeably more coming out of it than before. Of course, like Godot, maybe tomorrow.

Why the amount hasn't increased is the pivot of this discussion, which naturally leads to what that means.

Living in Germany, I tend to the Kunstler perspective - don't live in spread out suburbs without any local agriculture, but that solution is not available in North America, in my eyes. Which is why so many of the non-doomers are so big on finding some method of mobility that allows suburbia to continue - without generally even dealing with the fact that any plug in vehicle will only work by improving on the incredible waste in personal transport - but when tranporting 40 tons of food 50 miles to a big box store, a plug in solution isn't likely to work very well.

Nothing wrong in having a viewpoint, but I don't think there is the broad consensus you assume, even in terms of the correct term to apply to your posting - most people have learned to live with you, after all, because at times, you have added something useful to a discussion. That is what makes TOD useful, till now.

review the thread
Sorry, maybe I'm dense, but while the thread certainly lays out an exposition of the hatred, I see nothing that illuminates the underlying why. The hatred just is. Now in the absence of illumination, I could speculate - for example, corrosive envy by the unsuccessful for the successful, as measured by any yardstick whatsoever from money to sainthood, has been commonplace from time immemorial - but after all it would only be speculation and it might be impolite to go into it deeply.
yes, you are dense
To be fair Robert, you were being snide being he threw in the angry ad hominem attack:
"My second cousin has this friend, who knows a guy, who overheard his stepmother tell someone that your contact is just making things up."

In fact, I think he took your little quote above as an ad hominem attack, so he fired back.  Seriously, I understand that anecdotes aren't evidence, but you weren't exactly cordial in your response ;)  But obviously you have a superior intellect, and are pure as an angel's semen.