DrumBeat: December 24, 2006

Exxon among winners of Libya oil blocs: Exxon, ONGC and Inpex win blocs that drew only single bidders. Russian firms take bulk of licenses.

TRIPOLI -- Three blocs that drew only single bidders in Libya's latest oil exploration round were awarded to Exxon, ONGC and Inpex on Sunday, the country's state National Oil Corporation said.

Exxon Mobil Corp. was awarded a 22.3 percent share in four wells, India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp. a 28 percent share in one well and Japan's Inpex Holdings Inc. 12.9 percent of three wells, NOC said.

Russia's Gazprom and Tatneft won the bulk of licences in the round last week.

From those loony liberals at the Washington Times: Energy options set aside for now

Conservation? In principle, sure. We could live in far smaller, well-insulated houses, use fans instead of air conditioning, drive the sorts of glorified go-carts that one sees in Thailand, and spend our time reading and listening to music. In practice, people don't behave this way.

Further, the entire economy is based on high production and high consumption. We can philosophize about it, but nothing short of catastrophe will change it.

The nature of a free-enterprise economy is that it adapts well to gradual changes, but cannot prepare for sudden ones. Any technical solution that would work seems to require wrenching social changes that aren't going to be embraced voluntarily.

America’s worst commutes: Despite carpooling, leaving earlier, time in the car just keeps getting longer

In 2003 the U.S. Census felt it necessary to coin the term “extreme commuting” to describe trips of over 90 minutes. Today, more than 10 million workers travel more than 60 minutes each way, and around 3.3 million travel 90 minutes or more.


The lights went out one Christmas long ago

The energy crisis was peaking in late 1973. Earlier that year there were electricity brownouts across the country and prices for fuel were rapidly rising. In October, the Arab oil embargo pinched an already dwindling supply of fuel.


Energy Consumption: The Globalist Quiz

Despite concern about climate change, the demand for energy has continued to grow. In fact, energy consumption across the globe increased by 72 percent from 1975 to 2003. Which of these regions increased its use of energy by the lowest percentage?


Democrats' energy goals likely to be modest in 2007

WASHINGTON — Democrats campaigned on promises of making sweeping changes to the nation's energy policy, but it's unlikely they'll deliver on most of those promises.


Citing cost pressures, several carriers hike fares

American spokesman Tim Wagner said the fare increase was necessary to offset higher fuel costs. He said jet fuel prices are about 15 percent higher than this time last year and spot fuel is about 40 percent higher than this time in 2004.


Musharraf: Pakistan will go ahead with Iran gas pipeline project

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will go ahead with a project to build a pipeline to carry Iranian gas even if India decides not to join it, President Pervez Musharraf has said.


Fuel Prices Will Not Increase, Says Al-Naimi

JEDDAH — Saudi Arabia yesterday dropped plans to increase fuel prices and said as of Jan. 1 it would sell Premium 95 gasoline for 60 halalas and Premium 91 for 45 halalas per liter, instead of the previously announced prices of 75 and 60 halalas, respectively. The announcement pleased both Saudis and expatriates as they were expecting a hike in prices from the beginning of the year.


Global Energy Woes Spark Russian Resurgence

As oil prices climbed in 2006 and burgeoning global powers China and India emerged as major energy consumers, one country above all others appeared poised to profit -- Russia.


Iran refuses to cease uranium enrichment, mulls withdrawal from IAEA

Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran pledged to change its relationship with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Association.

"We are not obliged and it is not expected that cooperation with the IAEA continues at the same former level," Hosseini told reporters. He did not provide details about what would change.


Azerbaijan May Stop Buying Russian Gas and Cut Oil Exports

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said his country may stop importing Russian natural gas next year because OAO Gazprom, Russia's gas-export monopoly, wants to more than double prices.


Agency report rings alarm bells for global energy security

Alarm bells are ringing on the issue of security of global energy supplies, International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol said Friday at a press conference in Istanbul.

"The threat to the world's energy security, especially on oil and natural gas, will reach serious dimensions in the next 10 years," he added.


Nigerian militants hit close to home

PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - A car bomb exploded outside a state government building in Nigeria's southern oil hub Saturday, marking the first targeting of government installations by a militant group that has previously focused attacks on foreign oil companies.

The blast was the latest in a spree of assaults aimed at disrupting oil operations in the Niger River delta. Car bombs hit two foreign compounds Monday, gunmen killed three guards at two other facilities Thursday and a water pipeline to a refinery was reported sabotaged late Friday.


Pakistan: Locally-made LPG price may be brought to international level

LAHORE: The government has approved a proposal to increase the price of locally produced LPG to the international market level, according to the Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA).


U.K.: Russian bullying over oil is 'a wake-up call'

Russia's use of energy supplies as a political weapon should be a wake-up call to Britain and the West to deal urgently with the threat, senior Conservatives said last night.


NY Times pimps the privatization of Iraq's oil

Foreign investment is a key ingredient in all kinds of development projects in all kinds of countries. It's also the rationale for the push to open Iraq's oil sector to foreign investment. So the reporter, Edward Wong, believes it must be necessary in this case even though none of the world's top four oil producers -- with 51% of the planet's reserves between them -- have any deals that give foreign companies an equity stake in their production, which is what's being pushed in Iraq (they do make use of the private sector on a straight, for-hire basis).


The Last Word with Matt Cooper: Cooper picks stocks for 2007

Tullow Oil. I believe the peak oil phenomenon will dominate economics over the next couple of decades and that the search for alternative sources of energy will dominate policy and prices.

But remaining oil reserves will be increasingly important and, as one of the few remaining reasonably-sizeable independent oil producers and explorers available, I suspect Tullow will be purchased by a bigger player eventually. If it happens this year then it'll help the performance of this portfolio for the competition.


Copper mining companies invest in "reliable" energy

Four of the largest mining companies operating in Chile have joined forces in pursuit of reliable and affordable gas supplies.


EPA OKs fuel-cell car production

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has cleared the way for automakers to produce hydrogen-powered fuel-cell cars to meet zero-emission vehicle requirements in California and 10 other states.


Renewable Energy in America, Part 2: Solar Powered Homes

"Residential solar power is cost-effective. Go to the California Energy Commission's Web site and read their two-page flyer. It shows that a homeowner that puts solar on their house and finances it properly with their mortgage can save money," said Travis Bradford, founder and director of the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development.


British Army saves by filling tanks with cooking oil

Out of the frying pan into the firefight. British troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and other military bases around the world are to be told to recycle used cooking oil as fuel for military vehicles.


Kenya: Energy from garbage


College harnesses cow pat power

An agricultural college is using methane from the muck produced by its dairy herd to power its working farm.


Are hydrogen-fueled cars pie-in-the-sky?

How about a city where there are lots of trains, subways, and busses, that are actually clean and safe, that actually run on time and do not break down, that actually have routes that go where commuters want to travel, that are not so crowded you have to hang from a ceiling strap with a death-grip for an hour, that are not covered with spray-painted gang symbols, so most commuters will actually look forward to leaving their cars at home. No, I guess that’s far more difficult to accomplish than making our entire oil-based industries including oil refineries, engine manufacturers, oil tankers, gas stations, oil pipelines, and all gasoline-powered vehicles obsolete.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of the wonderful, knowledgeable and hardworking people who take the time to share their expertise here on TOD to help social (pseudo?) scientists such as I  better understand this complex and multifaceted issue.

Best wishes to all of you for the Holiday.

Ditto!
Me too!
Thanks for this site/work from another pesudo scientist who needs the analysis & community for our energy descent. Thanks again.
Thanks to all Oil Drum personnel for running the best peak oil blog on the planet. Thanks especially to Leanan for her tireless daily work in the trenches of the information byways, separating the gold from the dross for the edification of us all. Best wishes for 2007!
ditto!
Yes, me too. And may the reality-based community continue expanding in the coming year.

Allow me too to "Me too!".

Ditto as well and best wishes for 2007 from a (pseudo?) scientist mostly on the biological side of the fence.

By the way, what do the TOD folk recommend for those last minute shoppers among us (sort of following in the footsteps of the rest of society in not doing anything about an oncoming problem until the last minute)?

If you could give one gift to maximize the resilience/survivability of the recipient, what would it be?

John Seymour's "The Self Sufficient Life and How to Live It:  The Complete Back-To-Basics Guide."

Its inspiring and wide ranging and just a fun read as well.

I second the John Seymour book.  Also, his "Forgotten Arts and Crafts."

Another good one is "When Technology Fails" by Stein.

Interesting suggestions. Surfing on these brings up interesting websites:

John Seymour's Self Sufficiency Network He passed away at the age of 90 in 2004 and just prior to passing completed a new version of the book (wiki), having authored some 40 books in all.

Matthew Stein, author of "When Technology Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance and Planetary Survival" and an MIT-trained professional engineer also has a website by the same name.

THE MAIN THREATS TO OUR FUTURE

As I see it, the four main threats to a stable American and world future are:

· PEAK OIL
The oil crisis of the 1970's was a result of a 5% drop in global oil
production due to the OPEC oil embargo. We are facing an eminent,
unavoidable drop in global oil production as most of the world's oil fields
are now in decline. Many oil industry experts state that global oil production
has essentially already reached a plateau and predict that it will start to
decline sometime between this year and the year 2010.

· ECO THREAT . . .

· BIO THREAT . . .

· TERROR THREAT . . .

The last paragraphs on this page are a brief synopsis of peak oil and a suggestion to learn more about it. [Update - FWIW Reading further through the site, I've found that some of the author's ideas are too alternative or "new age" for my taste.]

Matt Stein's page is an interesting one.

He forgot the biggest threat of all:

Mental Manipulation of the Mob using the latest in neuro-scientific findings.

We are not who, or what we think we are.

Karl Rove knows it.
Kerry shows it.
His superior intellect gets Swift Boated every time and still he does not "get it". How intellectually dense can one be?

I gave my father-in-law a dynamo radio/flashlight (runs on batteries or winding action).
Same here. Hope everyone has a safe, warm, happy holiday.

Energy options set aside for now

The entire economy is based on high production and high consumption. We can philosophize about it, but nothing short of catastrophe will change it.

Couldn't have said it better myself, and I doubt that anyone could.

Take that into the new year, write it down and stick it on the fridge.

It suggests a question though: high consumption, you betcha, but whatever happened to the high production? And if we can agree that high production is gone from EU, US, Canada, it logically follows we would have to agree the entire economy is going going gone.

Merry Christmas, y'all.

Wonder what it'll look like next year.

Yeh, bring out the bombs.  As the NYT says, we need to expand our army for future wars.  And what might this wars be for?  
Yeah, I read that one too...gave me a "holiday chill."
It reminds me of a talk by a UC Berkeley economist at a climate change conference in CA.  His basic message was, "Look folks, we are mass consumers.  Let's be grown up and accept that.  Now, because of this, we are going to use a lot of energy going forwards.  Hence, we will have massive emissions of greenhouse gases.  Now let me show you a general equilibrium model for the CA economy based on another century of growth in consumption and population."

What followed was a catalogue of horrors, but I was supposed to just agree that this was simply the way it is.  There is no alternative.  The climatologists, hydrologists and biologists that followed had a sort of deer caught in the headlights look about them when the implications of this growth were illuminated through there work.  

I may have been the only one in the audience who called this for what it is:  madness.  

This conference with the following economist, per chance?

George Akerlof, UC Berkeley professor of economics and 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics

Economic theory gives a simple natural way to fight global warming, which is to have escalating taxes on carbon emissions ... Carbon emissions into the atmosphere constitute a nuisance to everybody on the planet. People should be taxed to pay a penalty equal to the value of the nuisance that they cause. In this way people who value their emissions more than the nuisance they cause will make those emissions. They will pay the tax. People whose emissions are not valued as much as the nuisance they cause will curb them. They will not pay the tax ... The economics here is as simple and straightforward as economics ever gets. It would be hard to find any economist who would disagree.

The morality of it is [also] fairly easy ... It is like a case of stealing. By adding more carbon to the atmosphere than our fair share, we are taking more than what rightfully belongs to us. We should not feel entitled to that any more than we would feel entitled to enter uninvited into our neighbors' house and partake of the dinner sitting on the table for their family.

In: Sounding the alarm

California Magazine September/October 2006, VOLUME 118, NO. 5 Can We Adapt? The Science and Psychology of Climate Change (special issue)

This is quite a change of opinion coming from the author and newspaper which have been strong 'neocon' supporters of the Iraq conflict.  At the minimum, it's a concession that the fiat-money (US$) based US and global economy can not sustain itself, well, on just more fiat money.  Real and cheap energy is needed, if only to maintain a vast worldwide military network and ongoing wars (not stated, but implied).  As the article actually states, capitalism will fail to smoothly adjust to the arrival of PO.  

Assuming the necons, and by association the GWB administration, now really believes in PO, what is their plan?  

Hello HeIsSoFly,

I believe things can change almost overnight, that is why a am a fast-crash doomer.  But I keep racking my brains for solutions and pushing for maximum Peakoil Outreach.

Imagine if the President got with the program, then issued a decree that only families that doubled, or tripled up into one house would get a huge rebate on solar installations; to essentially incentivize us back to a tribal inclusive fitness level lifestyle.  Virtually overnight half the housing in the country would be empty and the energy savings would be tremendous.

Why wait until energy prices force this doubling or tripling up anyway?  Why wait until the millions of bankrupt mortgagees have to abandon their homes and move back in with Mom & Dad?  Why wait until the stock market crashes taking our savings, pensions, Social Security, and 401Ks with it?  Why wait for catastrophe?

Why not start moving 60-75% of the US labor force to my hoped for 150 million wheelbarrows.  Why purposely choose 150 million rifles, and all the mayhem that will result, when we clearly know that 150 million wheelbarrows is what we will truly need after this mayhem?

I think that WaPo article was misguided because they did not encourage solution-thinking.  If that author was Captain of the Titanic: he would not even try to launch the lifeboats or send out a radio-mayday.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

correction-Washington Times article
Leanan, thanks for getting up early on Christmas Eve, a time when any decent normal person should be nursing a hangover and a sour stomach from too much party food!

Yesterday, Saturday Dec. 22, I drove past the highest priced shopping center in the Houston area, the Galleria. The traffic there is always heavy, and nearly unbearable at Christmas be. This was around noon. There was light traffic! My conclusion is that the United States has already entered a severe recession/depression, no matter whats being reported by the media. Any other reports from various regions?

Reporting from the suburbs or Wilmington, Delaware....

For what it's worth, on Friday my wife went to a Macy's department store in a nearby mall to get a last-minute Christmas gift. She expected to encounter difficulty in finding a parking spot and large crowds in the stores, but the whole mall looked to be only a little bit more crowded than it would on a normal weekend.

Maybe it means something or maybe it doesn't, but it was somewhat unusual nonetheless.

Same here in KC...I went to our local shopping district and, although busy, was not "jammed" like I remember years past.

Another anecdotal Christmas present story, my kids and I have made a bunch of gifts this year.  I also ended to giving more to charities this year than years past.

Thanks, TOD, for all you have given us this year and hope everyone finds time to Eat, Drink, and be Merry!!

Best thing you can do is reconnect with old friends and family members and forget about the rest of the world for awhile.

In Chattanooga, the biggest mall was in traffic gridlock both Thursday and Friday, but relatively light traffic on Saturday??? It's as though everyone finished their shopping a day early...
Totally different situation here in Austin - the economy has never been better.
Oilmanbob -

I would agree with you - I drove past the typical big box store area / mall yesterday in Central NY during early evening.  Coming upon the exit off the highway I was expecting the ramp to be completely backed up with cars trying to get to the mall but there were only a few scattered cars waiting at the traffic light and just a lack of typical craziness...  I definitely had the sense that something weird was going on...

Catskill

Yesterday I went to Target to get a few items for the house as we have just moved to Springfield, MO.  I overheard the employee at Target saying that when she got to work at 10AM she expected the parking lot to be full and was very surprised that it wasn't.

-C.

Please tell me you're kidding, and that you're not reaching that conclusion based on a single drive-by of a single shopping center in one US city.

And how in the world could the US have "already entered a severe recession/depression" without everyone, including the media, knowing?

Personally, I think that the nation-wide trends of buying gift cards and shopping online are starting to reduce the ratio of shopping center congestion to number of dollars spent.  People are either shopping online and not going to stores, or spending less time in stores because cards are such quick purchases.

Actually, my impressions were based on drive-bys of three shopping centers, but I chose to use one to illustrate. The Galleria is located within 5 miles of the highest priced residential real estate in the Metropolitan area, and is the deastination of choice for many upperclass foreigners. The economics reporters have been saying that high end retail is less affected, but I'm not seeing that as true in the world energy capital.
  Our economic reporting seems to be as managed as our reporting on the war in Iraq, and, frankly I trust my own impressions more than I trust MSNBC, or the Economist magazine, or the major networks. Its sad, but true, that there is much better reporting available on the Internet than can be found in the media. They have large retailers as advertisers and would rather report terrible news in the first quarter so as not to further depress sales.
  So thats why I kicked the question out to TOD group. I trust their observations and analysis a lot more than the economic pundits. I'm truly curious how sales have gone on Rodeo Drive and lower Manhattan. We'll know for sure that times are hard when we know how the truly wealthy are spending their money.
FWIW - 3 small towns in the UK

Kettering, Market Harborough, Tenbury Wells

have all looked subdued this year at the usual 'crazy' time. Bargains are nowhere to be seen in shops. I think margins are now cut to their limit.

Waiting for the slow everlasting inflation...

Merry Crimbo all

Actually a finacial manager Jim Puplava of Financial Sense Online actually uses what he calls his "parking lot indicator" to either validate or in-validate other financial stats that he analyizes.

During the middle of summer when everyone was doom and gloom on the finacial markets, he was predicting a record on the Dow.  One of his facts that he used to come up with this prediction was that traffic at his local mall plus his personal conversations with retailers at the mall did not show any slow down.  Salesman at retailers like Brooks Brothers and Nordstrom's told him that sales were great.  In fact, when so many internet writers were saying it was the end of the economy, the only way to park at the mall was to get a valet.

So while I would draw a conclusion bases soley on personal experience at the mall, it can be used in addition with other statistics to draw a logical conclusion.  

Didn't the great Peter Lynch use the "parking lot indicator" when considering investing in retail companies?

I consider it a realiable indicator.

louGrinzo,

I appreciate the question you've raised.  It seems like a good one.

For me, it is turned around.  All of the BS coming from the "Official" government and corporate spinmeisters is just that -- crap.

They do use it to keep a certain class of people believing in and investing in the status quo, but it seems to me that it is all about making sure that folks believe that their 401k or whatever really has meaning when it clearly does not.

If one works in the finance industry, on Wall street, or in some investment house, then one must (I suppose) believe the numbers churned out to support ever more consumption and all that this implies.

I just don't think that the official systems have any credibility with me anymore.

So the parking lot indicator is at least something local that I -- and others -- can look at and ponder.  but I'll admit, in isolation it is a bit like reading tea leaves or entrails.  Most of us interpret "indicators" in light of our own sense of the way things are.  Is it all subjective?

Retailers count on post-Christmas sales

But the late-buying binge was not enough to meet sales goals, and retailers are now turning to post-Christmas business to make this season a merry one, according to one report from a national research company.

"These were big days, but they came up short in terms of traffic and sales," said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a research firm, referring to this past Friday and Saturday. ShopperTrak monitors total retail sales at more than 45,000 outlets.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061224/ap_on_bi_ge/holiday_shopping

These are my thoughts for Christmas and the upcoming New Year as they relate to the likely upcoming energy crisis and ensuing chaos in our society. Global warming adds its part as well since according to the news another island has become submerged  due to rising sea levels.

My thoughts are that since its going to happen and I can't change anything about that then why do I not enjoy the few years I have left?

My son is buying a new house in North Carolina where I used to live and him and my wife have been asking me for some time to come live with them. That means selling the farm and acreage with it. That means moving back to the state I loved most next to Kentucky. That means life would be easier for me. No hunkering down activities. Forget about all the preparations which do take their toll. A very heavy mental toll as well. I can hardly get a good nights sleep anymore and have been losing weight as well.

It means putting my HD Lowrider on a trailer behind the Jeep Wrangler, putting the dogs(lots of Jack Russells) in the back of the jeep, hauling ass over the mountains and not looking back. Going back to laying on the beach,eating good seafood, sourwood honey,collard greens and pine trees. Lounging on the screened in porch and NC style BBQ.

I am very seriously considering it for I am 68 and have a very few good arrows left in my quiver and want to use them wisely plus I miss being with my wife and if it all goes to hell then I will be there with my son and wife as it goes down.

What I wondered was that if many had the same ephipany as myself, would they NOT prepare but instead do a "On the Beach" scenario and just enjoy what was left of life as we knew it?

Growing up on the farm , progressing thru the 60s and 70s and loving every minute of it. The good music(R&R,R&B,Folk,Bluegrass....) the good times of camping and hunting,partying beyond belief, and raising horses,dogs and kids....it was very good. I rode the inflation wagon all the way and made money on the many houses we moved to as we moved along the road to the future.

Now it appears everything will be very bad. I don't think I can fight it alone. I am likely going to be giving up on that paradigm.

If so my contributions here will be zilch and I won't be reading the posts much longer. I will winter over, prepare my place for the auctioneer in the spring and when the weather is nice I will be gone before planting time.

In fact this may be my last post.
My swan song.
Hope the rest of you have what it takes.In about 30 minutes from now I tell my family that I am giving up on this part of my life and moving back to North Carolina and that williamsburg house in Wake County near Jordan lake,where I used to windsurf.

airdale

P.S. I know its a cop out. For me I guess its coming too late in my life but I had a fine run at it(my life). I remember every glorious bit of it. I still play the old music tapes and as I cycle down the roads I can relive those old times again as the nostalgia of it returns. I am a childe of the past.