World events roundup
Posted by Yankee on March 8, 2006 - 6:41pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: exxonmobil, haradh, nigeria, oil, oil prices, olive oil, saudi arabia, smelting, venezuela [list all tags]
So, what's going on out there? Let's see.
- Oil prices are falling again, and the US just reported a big jump in stocks of crude. Why? It appears that refineries are in maintenance season. This doesn't seem to be affecting the price at the pumps, though. Hmmm. Is demand down these days? Not all news is rosy, though. This article also reports: "Iran made a statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency earlier Wednesday in which it threatened the United States with 'harm and pain.'"
- In Nigeria, the head of the military has been removed from his post on suspicion that he's involved with theft of crude oil. You may be wondering what happens to that oil: "The crude oil is siphoned from pipelines and wellheads in the mangrove-lined creeks of the delta, loaded on to ocean-going tankers and exported to refineries." What I want to know is, who's buying it?
- ExxonMobil is on a roll. They claim they can "bring on as many new barrels as a major OPEC producer" within four years! They're looking at the Caspian Sea and deepwater GOM. Now we know why they ran that NY Times ad the other day... (BTW: Carl Pope of the Sierra Club weighs in on that stupid ad.)
- Of course, the Saudis are giving ExxonMobil a run for their money. They still claim that "the kingdom's Haradh oil field production [will] be at 300,000 barrels a day by April 1." We've seen this before.
- For those of you into alternatives, how about the use of olive oil instead of charcoal in smelting processes? Scientists appear to be saying that the "Mediterranean's first foundries were fueled by olive oil and not, as previously believed, by charcoal." This could be useful when blacksmithing becomes a valued profession again. Jared Diamond would like it—we get to keep the trees and have our fuel source too!
I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I see articles like this.
It's ironic that we're getting quotes from Edmund Daukoru of Nigeria. Their production is going down and it seems there is little they can do about. MEND is on the move. But beyond that, OPEC can't raise production, they can only lower it to influence prices--which would send them up, not down. All this nonsense from OPEC is meant to give us the impression that they are in control. But if they want oil in the optimal $40 to $50 range, what exactly can they do about? Nothing, nothing at all. I have hardly ever heard such unmitigated bullshit in my life."Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah, predicted that prices will drop below $60 a barrel by the end of June, but are likely to rebound to the $60 range in the fourth quarter. He said he believes political turmoil and extremism have added $5 to $8 to each barrel....".
He's an future oil price prophet
OPEC leads the charge toward greater price stability!
at the book end deffeyes comments on how he invests in the oil market.
maybe good advice?
best
http://www.prosefights.org/shattuck/shattuck.htm
So I guess the answer is no.
Many of us have guessed at the reasons that PO has been kept secret for so long, and I believe that the trashing of the oil prices (even by OPEC) is along the same lines. When you have trillions of dollars at stake, how much would you spend to plunge oil prices, especially if you know that you will make significant bucks from said plunge? I have read many times that even the most extreme price movements can be caused by a relatively small amount of money. All you need is a lack of buyers (bulls warn out by having their stops continually tripped) and a few sellers (the Conspiracy with billions of loose bucks to spend) and you can take the price down to any level you want. News - spews. Fundamentals - grundimentals. Peak oil - freak oil. "They" control the vertical. Do not try to adjust your dial. I'm afraid that the natural and positive "Golden Hand of the Marketplace" is being held off by these people. Just another indicator of how the people will be blindsided by the most nasty energy shock possible (I predict....)
Check this out for an example of how governments can manipulate gold prices to protect their paper currencies http://www.fgmr.com/manipulate.htm while "we the people" get moved further out on the limb that will inevitably break! Get Ready!!!
I truly believe in the positive power of a truly free marketplace - I just don't believe that this world has ever had such a thing.
Satellite Data Used To Warn Oil Industry Of Potentially Dangerous Eddy Ocean FOCUS began issuing forecasts on 16 February 2006 - just in time to warn oil production operators of a new warm eddy that has formed in the oil and gas-producing region of the Gulf of Mexico.
These eddies, similar to underwater hurricanes, spin off the Loop Current - an intrusion of warm surface water that flows northward from the Caribbean Sea through the Yucatan Strait - from the Gulf Stream and can cause extensive and costly damage to underwater equipment due to the extensive deep water oil production activities in the region...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/03/060306094231.htm
News - Spews...
(I'm all for low oil prices, but not at the expense of the natural and proper preparation for Peak Oil.)
they have moved both c-130's aka spooky's that are flying gun ships to iraq bases and they have deployed the uss ronald regan to the gulf.
Usually I dismiss the "US suicidal in Iran" scenario, but this thing sounds scary. You woke up the paranoid part of me and now I start to wonder why indeed everybody is striving to build inventories in this country... we'll see.
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/06/front2453788.107638889.html
ac-130's moved to iraq bases.
http://www.sunherald.com/mld/cctimes/news/world/14016966.htm?source=rss&channel=cctimes_world
It is obviously NOT there for roadside bombers.
Remember last fall when Iran ordered three of their divisions to be ready to move into Iraq in the event of an American attack on Iran. They may decide not to that in the event of an American attack, but the military wants that asset.
The AC-130 against insurgents was not my statement:
No, I do not take war with Iran as inevitable, even if we think it will only be for 2-3 days. I think the USA will stand down and Israel will do the bombing out of a sense of self-preservation, but the repercussions will spill over into cutting off Persian Gulf oil for a period of time.
But we want those big planes there as insurance.
The USA military has a lot of power, even if we do not talk about Nukes, though France does.
There is the probability that these are replacements for units and ships nearing the end of a duty cycle. But then I have too often overestimated the intelligence of Dubya.
If you had watched the "underway" list over the last 45 days you would realize that there are now 3 different complete Marine expeditionary groups in the Persian Gulf region. That page only lists the "underway" assets and once they arrive "on station" the name of the ship or other asset is removed from the page. However, I've watched three complete Marine expeditionary groups go to the Persian Gulf and not return yet.
Do I think this is saber rattling? Yes, but those forces are real, in place, and have the firepower to at least start something even if they can't finish it.
Those of us with memories of the 1960's and 1970's can only mutter "Laos" and "Cambodia," and I firmly believe that Rummy and Uncle Dick desperately want to rewrite the lesson plans from that era. But the kicker here lies in the oil shock of 1979-1980 and the resulting damage to the U.S. economy that resulted, in part, in Chairman Volcker monetary policy. The incrredible damge to the world economy that results from this reckless may be beyond calculation, and range from economically fatal disruption to the "carry-trade" in currency and bond markets, to full escaltion of Middle-Eastern War the U.S. has not chance of quieting.
I am suffering from delusional paranoia - before the cocktail hour, or is the Bush/Cheney effort to rewrite 20th Century history making its last stand?
I do not rule out Israeli or US air strikes against presumed Iranian nuclear resources but even that is quite unlikely (maximum risk from June onwards, probability < 25% this year IMO).
My assessment would change if, say, Venezuela stopped oil exports to US but Hugo is wise enough to know that card is best in sleeve than on table.
GW might like to play chicken but the other players are too smart to let him play that until they want him to, and they have all sorts of plans in place in case he tries to go early for that strategy. Ooops, I've probably got you all worried again now.
I don't think hunting lawyers etc fits with Condi's philosophy and recreational habits. What are her odds on being the next US president (I'm thinking before the next normal term) I might be interested in better than 10/1 if available?
"What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America."
--George W. Bush, May 2001
He tried, the titbabies cried, and IF he tried hared the titbabies would have accused him of making it all up for Big oil buddies etc.
People will ALWAYS find evidence to support their pet fantasy.
when did they aquire armored vehicals?
a fully loaded ac-130 can level about a city block with it's firepower, that seems a little overkill for fighting insurgents planting ied's?
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=89c900bb-6917-48f2-be68-8cdeec0d02a6&k= 6435
That could simply be like you say, for controling insurgents in Iraq (curb break-out of civil war). OR it could be "just in case" too for extra-curriculars for later (or sooner than expected even ???).
But, we just git to sit and watch. Got Popcorn?
On a sidenote:
sendoilplease, you've gone from sounding like Charles Manson to almost human...what gives?
We all have our inner Mansons - just admit it and control it. Sanity is all relative. I know from terribly good experinces now.
But I agree with you - the gig is probably really up this timezUp.
Iranians are a peaceful people and country. We have not aggressed against any other country in modern times. When we were attacked by Iraq we fought back and defeated them. The US supported the aggressor in that war.
We have abided by all aspects of the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). We seek to develop nuclear power generation for the time when our oil and gas resources decline or are better used otherwise. Nothing we have done has been in contravention of the NPT, nothing we plan to do is in contravention of the NPT. We wish to develop our own skills and ability to enrich nuclear fuel for our own reactors, we do not wish to be reliant on other countries for this.
Why are we criticized, villified and attacked for our reasonable position?
We are surrounded by countries with nuclear weapons: Russia, Pakistan, Israel, India, US and UK occupying forces in Iraq. All we hear are threats from many of these countries. We wish to live in peace with our neighbours. We ask that we are allowed to develop our own peaceful nuclear facilities without threats of economic and military violence. We call on all countries to decommission their nuclear weapons, as the NPT intends and states.
If these threats against Iran continue and, in particular, if they escalate into any form of action against Iran, we will retaliate. Ultimately we may be forced to withdraw from the NPT (as Israel, Pakistan and India) and develop our own nuclear deterrence, if nuclear powers continue to threaten us and attempt to manipulate the UN Security Council against us. That is not our wish nor our intent.
That said, there are people in the U.S. government who have Iran and its oil in their sights.
Borrow an ICBM from the Russians and point it directly at Tel Aviv. That will put a quick end to the imperial visions of the Neocons. It will be checkmate, game over.
So don't be absurd. At this point putting an ICBM in Iran's hands could trigger WWIII even if Iran itself did nothing threatening first aside from simply possessing it.
The only longterm solution here is a peaceful resolution between Israel and its neighbors but so long as some neighbors (particularly Iran!!!!) continue funding groups like Hamas and taking the position that Israel should be destroyed, there can never ever be peace in that region.
MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) kept the U.S. from invading the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union from invading Western Europe. It has a proven track record.
The nuclear issue is one excuse for military action, the backup seems to be the allegations of IED manufacture and interference in Iraq.
As in the Downing Street Memos ( www.downingstreetmemo.com ), the facts are being fixed around the policy.
How's that for cynical?
However, having said all that, being a base for terrorist mullahs and their evil talk and actions, well that is what is ultimately making Iran #1 on the list of countries for power-down. We'll at some point tip our friends "the Rooskies" to bug out of Bushy and then put the country quite literally into the dark ages. My guess is that neither the U.S. nor Israel wants to kill large numbers of Russians, and so m