Am I first?

Mark my words: This is not the peak. It is a good sneak preview of what the peak will be like, though. That is the essay I am working on now.

RR

The sudden recent runnup is copper prices worries me. Copper is easy to store, much easier than oil. Is oil going up because of a shortage, or because it's the start of the flight from the dollar?
High gasoline prices at three dollars is bad enough. If the dollar goes completely down the toilet, you'll find out what high gasoline prices are.

We are or very close to peak production Its a rear veiw mirror event and I think we have seen it March 2005. Note Everyone is producing flat out there is NO excess capacity Texas railroad 1972 repeated. Forcasts of increased production back then never accured and they wont this time. The Market is starting to get a whif of the problem. If oil production is down hill from here what should the price realy be???? $100, $200 a barrel??? I think the market still hasent figured it out but its getting there.

One things for sure its going to be an interesting time to be alive.

I am not usually a demonstrative person, but today I was.

I walked 1 mile (each way) from my parents house to their bank on the unused (ever) sidewalks of Phoenix.  While crossing Tatum at the stoplight a bright yellow Hummer was waiting at the red light.  I gave him a thumbs down sign as I walked in front of him or her (windows tinted, hard to see).  A series of honks back.

Did I do any good ?

Other motorists saw me (the odd walker).  The Hummer owner got the idea that owning a Hummer was not that cool (as gas was $2.979/gallon).

Remember the Hummer ad where soccer mom dropped her kid off at school and her precious little boy basked in the status of having been dropped off in a Hummer as the other, larger  boys said "Cool ride" ?

Letting people know that the largest SUVs (Hummer, Escalade, Expedition, Titan, etc.) are uncool is worthwhile.  But what methods are best ?  Handouts in windshield ?  Thumbs down ?
Any ideas ?

Greetings from Japan.  Thanks to everyone for all the excellent analysis on this site - it's extremely educational.

Just saw this on the BBC...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4932814.stm

Washington has asked Moscow to reconsider selling Iran anti-aircraft missiles as the crisis over its nuclear programme continues.

What really interests me is the question of what the US economy can take in terms of sustained high energy prices.

Have any studies been done into this? What areas of the economy will suffer most and which will suffer first. What are the tell tale signs?

Will we all just blunder blindly into debt trying to maintain our current lifestyle hoping that the prices will come back down because we don't know about peak oil.

Its a near impossible question because it comes down to the choices that we the people make but for me its the most intriguing question.

Will the fast food places be able to keep their $1 menus? Will people cut back on movies?  Will Ford and GM go bankrupt? Will we still go to coffee shops? Will the US government be able to fund the debt from abroad? Will interest rates have to keep rising?

Guerrilla energy  (An exploration of the mix of the practical and theoritical in changing energy supplies and sources)

"Dignity is more than a new pair of shoes."  French writer, anti-Fascist, guerrilla propagandist, and philospher)

If we accept that for the time being (3 to 5 years) fossil fuel is going to be the only real way to get around, and if we accept the crisis we are seeing is at this time essentially a liquid fuels transportation problem, and if we accept that a fair portion of the population still has to get around by automobile  (to take kids to school, to get to work, to get food) and are unable to take full advantage of other types of transportation, (mass transit not available, distances too great to walk, distances too great for bicycle due to health, age of the potential rider, safety concerning highway dangers, severe weather, need to carry at least some cargo a considerable distance, etc., then we arrive at the conclusion that what is needed is a bit more of a strategic way to cope with the current and potential future "liquid fuels" transportation problem.

Enter guerrilla energy strategy.  What is it?  Guerrilla energy has it's roots in guerrilla warfare and has it's methods in common with them.  These include  individual and small group action based on local conditions and readily available tools and technology, WITHOUT the need for centralized control, communication and direction. The tactic requires learning the lay of the ground, and then moving where the chance of success are greatest at the lowest possible cost.  Then the hardest part:  Actually having the nerve and practical ability to change quickly, put the ideas in play, and IMPLEMENT the operation.

What does this mean in guerrilla energy strategy?  We must look for the ways to dodge the problem, and maintain the original goal:  Freedom to move about at least the needed amount, at most, the desired amount, while dodging prohibitive cost.  Important point, we are looking for a way to do this LEGALLY.  Stealing gas or Diesel is off the table, but be sure that some will do it, so knowing that, protecting your "stash" of it is important.  We are talking about moving with stealth (and that's important, share among fellow like minded folks, but DON'T brag if your strategy works...because one of the reasons it will work is because not everyone is doing it), looking for gaps, and being able and willing to move on them quickly.  How?

First, stretch the resource.  My father commuted 21 miles each way per day in the 1970's energy crisis and seldom complained.  Inflation adjusted oil prices were higher then than now, even at the current record $75 a barrel.  Divide the per price barrel by what the average income was then...I made $1.50 an hour when oil went over $30 dollars a barrel in the late 1970's, or twenty hours a barrel.  Now, at only $75 a barrel, most folks make over $7.50 dollars an hour, which would be only ten hours per barrel.  If you make $15 dollars an hour, that's 5 hours per barrel.  Why was my father so nonchalant about gas prices?  He was getting 50 miles per gallon.  Not only that, he was burning Diesel, in a Volkswagen Rabbit Diesel.  He moved to it after having driven an Oldsmobile 98 for years...his fuel costs actually went down, while the cost of oil went up!

Second, play against the crowd.  Right now, Diesel is a bit cheaper than gasoline, but it is no longer a huge advantage.  But Diesel is not being caught up in the MBTE additive mess.  It will however get caught up in the low sulfur mess.  Diesel gets better fuel economy for a given weight of vehicle though, and if there is a panic that causes everyone to top up, the effect on Diesel will be reduced by Diesel autos being such a small percent of the car market.  Diesel is "counter season", in that it comes from the same distillate base as heating oil.  So in the summer, the stress on Diesel production/price is least when it is the most on gasoline due to summer driving demand.  So Diesel is not the perfect fuel, but has some considerable advantages when gasoline is suffering hardest on price/supply/demand, which brings us to....
Thirdly, flexibility.  Most people have more than one car, because they need more than one, or because they want more than one.  If this is the case, consider the advantages mentioned above, and consider one gasoline, one Diesel.  In the summer, the Diesel supply price is in your favor.  In the winter, when heating oil prices drive Diesel up, the gasoline car may be the one that will save you money and assure you supply.  It is worth thinking about, but you still have only two avenues of fuel supply, which brings us to...

Fourth, think outside the box.  What other fuel is out  there that is not experimental, that is well known as a motor fuel, and is used in far greater percentage in other nations as an auto fuel than it is in the United States?  It is well developed, easily stored, and very clean environmentally, and you can store a season worth in a tank in the backyard if you choose to.  It is LPG or Liquid Propane Gas.  That's right.  Propane is made from both natural gas production and oil refining.  It is stored in hollow salt domes in Kansas, Canada, and a few other places.  it is seasonal, in that most is used in the winter for heating, so propane is also "counter seasonal" when compared to gasoline.  It is cheapest when you drive most.  Not only that, it is flexible.  Most Propane cars are also gasoline cars (they start on gasoline, and switch over to propane, and can run on either).  If a person owned 2 cars, one gasoline/propane, the other Diesel, they could move between 3 fuels and stay counter season almost all the time!   The idea situation would be to add a small cheap electric to the mix, (picture a Volkswagen Rabbit Pickup truck on electric batteries) for around town use.  The mix and match would give the person or family staggering flexibility to move about at reduced cost, and with a far greater assurance of transportation.

 If the true ideas of "small cell" guerrilla energy strategy were to be used, and several families were to join forces, then a half dozen vehicles could be modified or purchased, to be used between say 4 households, with a combination of Diesel, newer gasoline "flex fuel" vehicles, a propane gasoline car or pickup truck,  electric "scootabout" for teenaged kids or around town, and in areas where it is an advantage, CNG (Compressed Natural gas), all designed to be used in a "counter seasonal" way....depending on the needs of the households, so that no one would be completely without fuel.

Household consumption, by the way, could be done the same way, with a mix of solar, windmill, gardens and greenhouse for food and/or heat,  woodlot and wood stoves (younger stronger members of the group cut wood for the older less able members, and to keep the kiddies warm, while the kiddies help in the gardens and greenhouses), and propane tank for reserve (both transport  and CHP (Combined Heat and Power for the homes)

Everything mentioned above is viable on current technology, (even 30 year old technology would do), it would merely take a "guerrilla" mentality.  And here's the great part:  As others saw what was going on, they would realize you still had what they were having trouble keeping:  Freedom of movement, and a relatively high level of prosperity.  They would want that too.  Would they be willing to trade for some of your efforts, and maybe even join in?  Any guerrilla force needs recruits.  But the affiliation must remain loose, flexible, and fluid, as conditions change rapidly.  Some could use methane recapture from farming and sell the meat and produce, and swap for the natural gas cars you know how to keep running, which can also run on methane.  Some could build small efficient windmills, and sell the electric current in exchange for the electric "scootabout" cars.  Others would trade for a "guerrilla" energy techie who can build solar hot water heaters or an entertainment system that can run on a small cheap windmill....the exchange will be endless, but it will be all to the same goal.  To zig when others zag, to find the gaps, to look for the "counter market" and counter season" energy still out there, and to retain as much freedom and freedom of movement as possible.  Everybody on the guerrilla energy frontline will start small, and watch, learn and at first, undertake small operations.  But as freedom and purpose grows, so does confidence.  As others howl, the energy guerilla will move, build, learn, and move again, and expect no direction from the top.

 It is the ones who watch their freedom of movement get smaller, and smaller and finally, disappear who will hold out hope of rescue from a central power.  It will not come, and by the time these people realize it, their freedom to move enough to change will be gone, (unless an energy guerilla finds they have something to trade or sell in exchange for their ability to free up those "energy hostages" who cannot move, and that the hostage has something to exchange.  Like money, freedom of movement is a valuable commodity.  Prostitutes who now will trade their services for money will then be willing to trade their "services" for it.  Landowners and bankers will find some way to trade with the "energy guerilla" for the ability to move around, and for the tactics and tricks they know.  
And of course, there may be "skirmishes" as some try to take the abilities and tools of the  energy guerrilla by force, or some energy guerrillas attempt to gain full power through their knowledge of how to use and provide freedom of movement.  It may not be pretty.

But, the more distributed the power is, the less likely tyranny.  The more people that know the tricks, what fuel can be found and used, how to stay counter market and counter seasonal, how to stay flexible and keep options open, and how to build social co-ops and communities to enhance this flexibility, and keep both private and co-op options open, the more people who can play this game, the less likely that a small knowing band can rule them as overlords.

Guerrilla energy will begin long, long before fossil fuel has run out.  It will begin long, long before people stop driving. It will begin long, long before renewables are even a marginal proportion of energy production.  It will begin long before the current structure goes away, and in fact will be born and will get it's tools from the waste in the current structure, just as current guerilla war bands do.

Guerrilla energy in fact, has already began.  It has communications structures, (TOD is one, whether they know it or not), favored tools and technologies  (Diesel, propane, Methane digesters, home brewed fuels, home brew electric cars, home built solar, gardens and greenhouses, organic farms).  Some ask, "How long till Peak Oil?  How long till the oil and gas "run out", how long can we afford gasoline, or to commute to our jobs? How can I get the kids to school?"

The better question is this:  How long until the center of power is over centered, and I will have more freedom of motion by moving away from the current technology, the current methods? At what point will my freedom be enhanced by breaking off from the structure, and going my own way to retain freedom of motion?  This, after all, is the campaign of the guerrilla everywhere, in all times, whether it be a political or spiritual dissident, a "dissident artist" or a not yet well known class, the "dissident" or "guerrilla" technician, mechanic, manager, professor, or banker.  

This is what Alvin Toffler called, in his great book by that name, the "Powershift".  it does not mean the old structure is gone, or the old technology disappears.  It means that the momentum, the power, the growth, and the GROWTH OF FREEDOM TO MOVE, THE FREEDOM TO CHOSE, THE FREEDOM OF OPTIONS is now with the dissident "alternative" groups.

Many make the mistake of thinking that the leaving behind of the old energy base will mean a reduction in choice, a reduction in movement, a reduction in options.  
It cannot.  No mortal will join that quest to willingly give up choice, wealth and freedom.  The "Powershift" is about retaining freedom, choice, wealth, and options in a changing world.  It is those who are willing to speak of limited movement, limited choice, limited options, who do not have the heart, the cleverness, or the real sense of human desire to become "energy guerillas" and who will become the ones with no movement, no options, no choice, in effect, "energy hostages".

As Toffler points out, the human on Earth has in the end only three tools to retain power:
Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence.  The Japanese mystical triad (the mirror {self knowledge,as Socrates told us in the West, the beginning of all knowledge} the jewel {wealth} the sword {force or violence}
In the Western tradition, the Book (knowledge) the sword (violence) and the Cross {wealth, spiritual, but the Cross so often gold silver and jeweled, symbol of the wealth of a culture in both spiritual and material wealth)

No culture can survive without a mix of these three.  The balance varies, Ancient Sparta, the sword was the preeminent tool, as with Vikings and Fascists.  Other cultures, the Egyptians, with Wealth, Knowledge, a duo of virtues,and the sword only to retain the "perfection".  The ancient Greeks, knowledge first, created the tools of wealth, but it was never a virtue among the Greeks to be only wealthy.  War, the Homeric legends and heroes (Odysseus) portrayed war, violence.  Greece saw knowledge as greatest, war second (is it any surprise that Socrates was a soldiar and a philospher, but had no real wealth, or that it was Aristotle who taught Alexander the Great?

The modern Americans, like all the others, a triad, warlike, wealth producing, knowledge, but always PRACTICAL knowledge, balanced for so many years, so many years before it became nonscientific, anti-knowledge, a wealth machine, and then, Imperialism, the combination of wealth and violence not to create knowledge, but to create POWER THROUGH WEALTH.  But the underpinning knowledge is bleeding away.

For the "energy guerrilla", violence is not the chosen tool.  Wealth is in the hands of the old fossil fuel industry, and cannot be the energy guerrilla's chosen tool.  Only one remains, the greatest one, which can be converted to power and wealth:  KNOWLEDGE.
Knowing the technology, knowing the theory, knowing the practical uses and limits of energy, knowing how to use them in an applied mechanical way.  This is the central tool of the energy guerrilla.  Using a small amount of tools, technology and money, it can bring down giant firms, alter giant economies, and salvage the FREEDOM OF OPTIONS, the freedom to gain more knowledge.

It will be a challenging age.  It will also be an EXTREMELY artistic and creative age, in the truest sense of what is truly human, and truly freeing for the human spirit.
The age of convenient hedonism now ends.  History, once called dead, is reborn.
HISTORY,THE STRUGGLE, NOW LIVES AGAIN.  
Thank you.

I am Roger Conner, better known to you as ThatsItImout

Have you considered that possibly Bush Jr. is not a deranged idiot? That maybe he knows what he is doing?
Maybe he's figured out that since the US is bankrupt and can't buy any more oil when the Chinese stop giving us free money, maybe now is the time to take the Saudi, Kuwaiti, UAE, and Iranian oil off the market to get the price of oil up to 200$ and get people to be serious about electric cars and synthetic fuels.
He may want to make sure we have a plateau rather than a peak in the oil supply because he is secretly peak oil. After all, Simmons was at that secret (after five years!) oil summit he had as soon as he was elected. Maybe they gave him the bad news then?
On the other hand, he might be a deranged idiot.

I'm thinking about demand destruction.

People like me (middle class, steady income) can develop strategies to deal with escalating energy costs. But what about the working poor?

In Europe, most live in cities, and rely mostly on public transport anyway. In the US, I'm thinking it's going to be pretty cataclysmic.

What do you do, if you live in a trailer park, drive an elderly, inefficient vehicle, and do a lot of miles getting to intermittent, low-paid work, when the gas price goes through the roof?

Probable Republican response : Do nothing, à la New Orleans. Socially disastrous.
Probable Democratic response : subsidise their transport costs, one way or another. Economically disastrous.

Any rational response, surely, will require quite a lot of social engineering. Rural/dispersed habitat depopulation, it seems to me, is inevitable, with economic migrants arriving in the cities in large numbers. This could result in urban shanty towns, or there could be a wave of planned urban low-cost housing...

But what do I know. Thoughts, anyone?

Rural depopulation....alistairC
why? why would you leave an area that might have food growing capacity, wood, water?  If it really gets that rough meaning that fuel is too expensive (or not available)what kind of economy do you think we are going to have anyway?  Move to town to starve and freeze in an apartment?
 My guess is that people will stay where they are. Some in town and some out in the country as each location has advantages and disadvantages.  
As my brother said about Nam- there are two kinds of fighters in the army -guys who want to be in a fortress and and guys who want to be in the field.  Fortress guys want protection even if it means the emeny knows where you are.  Field fighters don't want to be a sitting duck.  Doesn't have anything to do with population movement just in different mindsets
I look at plastic inflatable kid play pens at the local box store and wonder?  When the SHTF are we going to buy this crap and coffee latte's or stay home and get real again.
I love the debate on the "peak" of oil.  I would imagine 20/20 hindsight is where it is at.  If we are off 1-4 years who cares in the big picture...this has got to get really rough its just a matter of when....

More complaints about gas prices...

Topic: Saw woman crying on TV.....cost $87 to fill up her SUV.....

http://www.virginiagasprices.com/Forum_MSG.aspx?master=1&category=1056&topic=141391&page _no=1&FAV=N

The thread started back on Sept 1, but was somehow resurected in the past couple of days or so.  Some of the comments are just whining.  Others are from people who have no sympathy for SUV drivers in general, correctly in my view calling them "status symbols".

The more serious issue that I see in reading all of these comments (and similar things in other places) is sort of a 'stubbornness' of sorts - people don't want to change, or they haven't thought it through.  A refusal to think outside of the box as it were, but I suppose part of it is that people haven't yet accepted that cheap gas prices are gone forever.  It won't be until people accept that these higher prices are the new 'normal' that people get serious about looking for solutions.

Some information from the local paper/dpa -

According to Barbara Meyer-Bukow of the Mineralölwirtschaftsverband (MWV - call it the oil sellers in short), consumption fell more than expected last year. Gasoline sales (Benzinabsatz - a bit tricky, but in this case, I would bet on them measuring sales in liters, not euros) fell 6.3% in the first quarter. And according to the article (without quoting sourcing), German refineries were more than 99% utilized (ausgelastet), and posted good/excellent earnings.

What is interesting is to see how flexible German gasoline sales seem to be in comparison to what one reads coming form the U.S. Even more interesting, if German sales actually declined 6.3%, and German refineries are essentially running non-stop, I would guess that Germany / Europe is currently able to deal with rising crude costs a touch better, as they then turn around and sell the U.S. higher valued products, thus earning a small 'discount' in their total energy bills.

In my opinion, peak is here, and America seems to be about at the level of preparation which one would expect from a society which seems to be ruled by the idea that the market (or prayer) is the most powerful force in human affairs. How much have gasoline sales in terms of volume declined due to higher prices there? Of course, you can also see Jevon's paradox at work in the real world - conceptually, all of the 'excess' German gasoline was consumed by others.

Personally, I still think anyone living in the United States is in for a world of hurt over the next decade, partially because of an utter failure to accurately view and prepare for the future over a generation (1976-2006) This may become one of those historical breakpoints in human history, somewhat like Rome around the birth of the Empire and Jesus Christ. (Trying to include the foreseeable and the unforeseeable in that perspective - these decades are likely to form a very real before and after in human affairs.)

And for the doomers - considering how much the U.S. has done for climate change, I would expect more of the same as America finds energy independence in coal. But as you can see, other people do seem to be able to live in a more rational framework of supply and demand without anyone feeling the collapse of society is around the corner, or the need to start strip mining.

I take exception to the accuracy of this website, comments by ryvr the temp of coastal waters of Pensacola Fl, 84 F currently.
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

According to this website the Temp offshore Pensacola Fl is 72F
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.cf.gif

I Down loaded temp history for Pensacola Fl for the month of April from weatherunderground into XL and found the Avg. mean temp for Pensacola Fl, it is 72 F. So where is all this heat energy coming from when all other stations have normal temps? After all Hurricanes need the energy from the entire Gulf not just coastal waters of Pensacola Fl. Someones thermometer has failed!
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPNS/2006/4/22/MonthlyHistory.html

Here is weatherunderground SST map Eastern Gulf 4-22-06
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/flm.html

As of 2003, the U.S. consumed 20 million barrels of oil per day. With a population of 300 million, that is 0.07 barrels of oil per day per person.

This means that for each dollar increase in oil prices, it costs each American 7 cents a day. If oil goes up $15/bbl, it costs the average American a dollar a day, or $365 per year.

Presumably the impact is much less for people in other countries, who consume less oil than Americans.

Fellow Toders,

Here's an attempt at optimism in these dire, murky and gloodmy times. This is mostly sweet, but with a tiny bit of sour at the end.

In Denmark, in the north of the Jutland peninsula they've built the world's most efficient coal-powered electric power station. It's taken them over twenty years to develop the technology required for this state of the art project.

The station is currently around 50% more efficient, at turning coal into electricity and hot water, than most US coal-fired stations. If one includes the production of hot water, used for central heating, the station is between 93% to 94% efficient. When only producing electricity efficiency fall to 47%.

If all US coal-fired stations were able to match this particular Danish station, the United States could probably reduce its CO2 emissions by 25%. Of course, this would reguire enormous and co-ordinated investment.

The Danes have achieved this high level of efficiency by utilizing far high temperatures and pressures than one normally uses in power stations. This has necessitated the use of ultra high quality japanese steel, which can withstand these greatly increased temperatures and pressures. Apparently one is using temperatures of 600 degrees and pressures of over 300 bars.

The Chinese have shown enormous interest in the design of these Danish super-stations and it would appear the next generation of Chinese stations will, in part, be based on Danish experience and know how. Clearly there are massive savings to be made in electricity generation, if one can produce the same ammount using substantially less coal. Not only that, the level of investment in infrastructure to supply these new stations, is also smaller.

According to the Danes, at Elsam Engineering, the level of Chinese interest, is far higher than that currently shown by the United States. Not really surprising, is it?

Dont know if you guys saw this in the SF Chronicle today. http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2006/04/22/MNGH9IDLVS1.DTL&o=0

Sorry about that. I've been a long time lurker here. Never posted.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2006/04/22/MNGH9IDLVS1.DTL&o=0

WEST TEXAS
I assume you are tied to the engineering/management side of oil.  In the hubert site they relate to everything in BTU's.  Oil contains a lot of BTU's and to try and replace it?  What would even come close and what are the real options/prospects of being able to do this?
It looks like we are heading for a world of hurt beyond the imaginations of people, even those who see it coming.  Is this accurate or are they trying to sell books?  Your postings seem more educated about the working of the oil business than anything else I read.  Can you eleborate? Thanks
DM

In honor of Earth Day, CNN is rerunning "Melting Point," their special on global warming.  

They covered the Artic and Tuvalu, and that Pentagon prediction of widespread disruption and civil unrest due to climate change.  

Now they talking about increased hurricanes, and what that means for New Orleans.

RR says: "Well, right now all we have is a bit of a plateau, that wouldn't even be a plateau if you added Nigeria and the GOM back in."

This is not a good argument. There will always be some factors that contervail the underlying trend, one way or the other. If there were enough of a buffer, then GOM and Nigeria would not be so influential.

I do admit, however, that peak could be difficult to pin down. For one thing, as someone mentioned, heavy can make up for light, and so forth. Second, a world-wide economic slowdown can also change the equation. Third, in the case of the US at least, there is a HUGE amount of waste, and reining even some of it in could cut demand significantly.

Do I believe we'll go another ten years before hitting peak? No. At this point, I think the shoe is on the other foot. Someone would have to show me how or why we are NOT at or near peak. As so many have pointed out, there are so many major fields acknowledged to be in decline that anyone who argues against peak has their work cut out for them. And lurking in the shadows may be fields that are not yet acknowledged to be decline.

Check this map out:

http://www.losangelesgasprices.com/Price_By_County.aspx?state=CA