The Oil Drum

You know those airplanes you fly on use oil too right?

What I found interesting about the NYT article was that just about the only people who had curtailed their driving were the ones who were financially incapable of buying gasoline.  

Note that the  guy in the Pacific Northwest, who was trying to find a commuting partner to offset the cost of his 40 mile roundtrip commute, had zero responses to a Craiglist ad.

I suspect that this is, by and large, the pattern that we will see across the whole country.  You can pry their fingers away from their car keys when they can't afford to put gas in the tank.

Back to the Energy Tax idea:  let's tax energy consumption to pay for Social Security/Medicare, rather than taxing the wages of lower and middle income Americans.

I do the same things, but not for the reason you listed. My cutbacks are for climate change and to save money for investments. Better to let other people deal with inflation. I'd rather invest in inflating things and other WTSHTF preparation. I know a number of SUV drivers who are grateful for your virtue, but wouldn't be willing to follow your lead. Doesn't Jevon's paradox imply that, until the government at least has acknowledged PO, there isn't much point to altruistic conserving to preserve the resource?

I took the St. Charles bus (the St. Charles streetcar is still down :-( to Canal, and took the St. Charles streetcar running on Canal (the Canal streetcars drowned) to within 6 blocks of JazzFest.  Nice way to go !  :-)  Next year, electricity all the way.

Pre-Katrina, I used 6 gallons/month (and a bit less than 300 kWh/month yearly average).  I have no intention of conserving or changing my behavior is any significant way.  I could, but the sacrifice is "not worth it".  

Comrades;
   Having been in the know about oil and energy issues for sometime, I have made it a point of conserving these resources for a while now. About 4 years ago, I bought a ridiculously huge Dodge Ram 1500. It was a sweet ride; fully loaded with an average fuel economy of 15mpg. However, at the time I bought it I knew that someday in the next few years gas prices would go significantly higher, but at the time, I needed such a robust vehicle for business reasons (I was doing a lot of traveling cross country at the time, toting along all manner of possessions for extended stays in different parts of the country, due to the nature of my job).
   As I said, I knew that fuel prices would eventually make such a vehicle uneconomic (not to mention impractical, wasteful and damaging to the environment), but at the time, given the price of fuel and my own situation, it made sense to have it. However, I eventually stopped traveling and settled down in a place close enough that I can walk to work, making ownership of such a vehicle even more foolish. So, last year, I sold it to some unsuspecting good ol' boy and purchased my current ride, a BMW Dakar 650cc motorcycle. At 70/mpg (69.512/mpg, to be exact), as you can imagine my consumption of fossil fuels has dropped preciptously.
   Now, as to my own situation, I'm a single guy living in a rented apartment (sharing it with my terminally freaked out roomate), situated in a small college town in central Virginia. Tbough I am certain that many other folks would not be in a position to 'powerdown' as much as I have, nonetheless, the example that brother Bob from Phx above is something that many people could do to alleviate their own use of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, my experience with humanity, through both observation and direct interaction, leads me to believe that the vast majority of our fellow citizens will go to great lengths to maintain the status quo (big houses, Ditech loans, SUV's complete with "Support the Troops" stickers, consuming cheap plastic shit made in China and sold at Wal-mart, ect). To even suggest such a course of action (conservation, sustainability, environmental awareness, rejection of the consumer culture) would, in the minds of some of my more confused and angry fellow Americans would be akin to advocating the imposition of a Maoist cult.
  I would liken the current situation in our country thus;
  One day, the circus comes to town. There is the usual parade of jugglers, acrobats and clowns down main street, followed by the animals. All manner of wild and exotic beasts, such as elephants, horses, lions and others are herded down the main drag of town. At the very end, there is one guy pushing a wheelbarrow, full to the brim with animal excrement that he scrapes off the street with the aid of a large coal shovel and a big, stiff bristle broom. One of the bystanders, thoroughly repulsed by the site and smell of all that animal manure, yells out to the fellow with the wheelbarrow "Man, that's such an awful job! How can you stand to do it?" To which the faithful circus employee replies, in an astonished tone "What, and give up show business?"

   I'll let you draw your own conclusions regarding this parable.

  Friends, we can only do what we can only do. The collective knowledge and wisdom represented on this site notwithstanding, I fear that our country is in for some dark times ahead.

Subkommander Dred

I am considering getting a battery powered bicycle.  Does anyone recommend any models that they are pleased with?  I figure when gas shortages occur, I can still make trips to the grocery store, etc.  I also think they would be safer than the loud gas powered cyles.

Personally, I don't drive at all - and never have.

(a) I commute by bicycle - 8km each way.

(b) Most other trips are by bike or public transport.

(c) Sometimes friends will give me a lift if they're driving, but that's more so we can be together than a necessity for me to get from A to B.

(d) If all else fails, I catch a taxi.

Obviously, this is more possible here in Australia than in many US cities.

Petrol (what you people call gasoline) is $A1.38/litre at the moment in Melbourne.  At current exchange rates, and assuming 3.5 litres/US gallon, that amounts to $US3.60/gallon.  People here are squealing about petrol prices, but not as much as in the US.

Why is this?  It's because most people don't have to travel as far and we are not so car-dependent as the US.  It's not actually a matter of personal choice, for the most part, because car dependence built into the town planning.  We have some of that here, but not nearly as much as you have there.  The result is that, as the price of oil gets higher, people can cut back on their car usage without dislocating their daily life absolutely.

This also brings up the topic of the renowned inelasticity of demand for petrol in the US.  Because car-dependence is built so heavily into the town planning, cutting back on petrol consumption is a long-term decision, not a short-term one.  People can't say "The price has gone up by 10%, so I'll drive 10% less".  Sure, they can cut back on recreational driving, but most driving is either commuting, or essential trips for shopping, dropping kids off at school or such like.  Public transport is not a viable option for most people in the US - and it will take major changes before it is.

Substantial cuts to petrol consumption for individuals are only possible through things like:

(a) Cutting the distance between home & work.  Moving house or changing jobs is not something that can be done at the drop of a hat.  You don't want to take a substantial pay cut in the process of changing jobs, so you have to choose carefully.  And moving house often involves changing one's whole social circle - and that of one's kids.  So it has to be prepared carefully and done correctly.

(b) Getting a much more fuel-efficient vehicle.  This, also, can't be done at the drop of a hat.  Vehicles cost money - both the one that you're driving & the one that you would want to be driving.  Higher fuel prices might bring forward by a couple of years the date at which you replace your old gas-guzzler, but if you own a newish SUV you might find that you lose more trading it in for a Prius than you'd save from petrol in the next 10 years.  So you're stuck with the bum choice you made.

On the social level, the real changes need to be in town & transport planning.  In Australia, and even more in the US, that means building pedestrian-friendly environments and upgrading public transport so that it can move people where they need to go quickly, safely and conveniently.

And it also means much higher population densities in urban areas.  When the effects of Peak Oil begin to bite seriously, people will decide they're prepared to live in a shoe-box if it means they can walk to work and everywhere else they need to go.  And, as Kunstler has noted, suburbia will be shown to be a social misallocation of resources on a mind-boggling scale.

Oh man! You go up a hill, you're going to do it in 2nd wayyyyy over on the rightmost lane.

Frankly you'd be better off looking for a rabbit diesel or something, there are some Toyota Tercels, the older ones, that run on gas and get great mileage. The one I like is the one that's a kind of wannabee wagon and has a big ugly ass. It's probably one of the best combinations of mileage and carrying room available, my Prius included.

Or how about getting a scooter? A new Vespa can easily get you 90mpg.

The problem with the 10 mpg Hummer, and all other excessive and unnecessary fuel consumption is that it forces the price of oil higher without any possibilities of mitigation for those impacted most.  The people driving these vehicles generally use a very small percentage of their disposable imcome on fuel.  If the price of gas doubles, it has no real impact.  Those who already drive economic vehicles, but are existing on the margins, use a far greater proportion of their income on fuel.  It hurts them when fuel goes up, even though they act responsibly.
While I agree that increased prices are essential to kickstart conservation and make alternative modes of transport viable, taxation is a far better way to go than relying on the vagaries of the market.
Much of the reason the alternatives are not set in motion is the fear that oil prices will slump.  This is not just among PO deniers, but also considered as a serious possibility in the event that an initial spike in prices causes a recession.
If the goverment (US, UK, wherever...) could convince the electorate of the problem, one way to stabilize the situation is to introduce fuel taxation in such a way that there is absolute certainity that the price will increase by a minimum of 15% per year.  That revenue can be recycled to reduce the impact on those worst affected.  This may of course be overtaken by events - but starting now would force the realisation that rising prices are not going away.  That means the investment in efficient vehicles, better insulation, renewables, mass transit systems, etc, have predictable paybacks.