Open Thread 2
Posted by Prof. Goose on July 17, 2006 - 9:55pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: oil, peak oil [list all tags]
when we go over 300 comments, it's probably time for a new one.
one question I'll pose: what other quotes should we put up in the quote box that we don't have?
:)
at least one company takes a jab at oil companies, take a look
I like Westexas's quote: "We have to kill consumption before consumption kills us".
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, on CNBC this morning, said that world oil demand will exceed supply for at least one to two years.
Interestingly enough, by some odd coincidence he was pushing for a new Hydrocarbon Law in Iraq, so that US oil companies could start increasing Iraqi production.
Of course, the ignorant interviewer rather than asking if Bodman forsee's an ability for the world to increase production from current levels, she kept pressing him about what the 'price at the pump' would be - which he refused to forcast.
Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world
Jeffrey J. Brown & "Khebab", GraphOilogy
Based on the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method and based on our historical models, we believe that Saudi Arabia and the world are now on the verge of irreversible declines in conventional oil production. Published May 24, 2006
I cannot remember where I first heard that. ...
He was one very smart dude.
Bush needs to have his straight talk with the American public. The public hears CERA, SA, oil companies, etc. say there's no supply problem. Bush knows otherwise, and the only way he can come close to saving face is to own up to the fact, and lay it out there for Americans to hear.
Recognition of the Hirsch Report would be a great place to start.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/04/30/bodman.gasprices/index.html
One other thing ocurred to me today, and I find it a delicious irony. Richard Heinberg mentioned a CIA memo talking about Russian peak oil output, and wondered out loud whether or not the US tried to get Russia in an arms race to essentially bankrupt it, knowing that its energy resources would be running out. Good thing we had the Saudis on our side I guess.
But I was thinking, now that Russia has passed SA as the world's leading producer (or at least they are neck and neck), that the situation may have been turned around completely. Russia has lots of oil and gas, and doesn't use all that much (relatively speaking). That gives it a lot of leverage. The US, on the other hand, is looking increasingly vulnerable.
Had we taken that money wasted on "star wars" and spent it on windmills, electrified high speed rail, etc. the Soviets would have gotten the hint and we might well still have a CCCP to worry about. But that strategy is proving short-sighted becuse we are liable to follow suit and have a wrecked economy like Russia now.
My favorite Churchill quote:
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
"Americans are the world's worst guests but the world's best hosts".
Nothing to do with PO I know, but I kind of like it.
EIA's 87-mbd forecast for 2010 is now the most conservative of our 12 modelers for that year. Who'd a thunk it, eh.
Of course, in terms of current output growth, we do seem to be at a somewhat clear plateau for the last few months. And yes, this plateau has something to do with hurricanes, pipelines being blown up, politics, etc. - things which will never, ever occur in the future, I'm sure.
But then, I'm pretty sure with all those projects coming on-line in Texas by 1975, Texas oil production would be able to regain its old early 1970s peak. See how predicting the future is hard?
Has anyone noticed the proliferation of scooters and motorcycles? Some people own a car and a motorcycle, to use the latter in good weather to use less gas. A small minority go motorcycle-only becuse poverty outweighs foul weather deterrence.
One obvious symptom of PO down the road will be the proliferation of bicycles. Not yet, becuse of the traffic of cars being the deterrent. Right now, you have to be almost fearless to ride a bike in the street, no matter the actual statistics. As they proliferate however, bike use will require less of a daredevil mindset - aiding its proliferation.
The problems of bicycles are thus:
- they are too fast for the sidewalk, making a hazard for pedestrians. Plus, many states outlaw the practice for that reason.
- they are vunerable in traffic, as above.
The result is that except for intentional bike trails, they are a poor match anywhere - until they become the majority vehicle on the street. (think of pre-car China) At that time, driving a car will be too big a pain in the arse.So far, the traffic deterrent prevents bike use. But with gas in Chicago closing in on a buck a litre, time will tell when the switchover starts. Gas is $3.29/gallon now. When it hits $3.78/gallon, it'll reach the buck-a-litre milestone. Or is that kilometer-stone?
A couple of thoughts I've had over the past few years' about general animosity against cyclists from motorists.
I don't really want to get into a debate; I'm a lurker for good reasons :)
Anyway here goes nothing.
Since I first started studying Peak Oil in about 1999 after attending my first Critical Mass ride in Sydney (Aus); I've developed 4 opinions of the effect it will have on cycling in general.
Utopian
I first thought that when oil peaked and petrol was very expensive it would be a cyclist's dream, with everyone riding as they couldn't afford to drive.
Dire
I soon realised that this utopian dream was just that and that when petrol was to expensive so would most other things like food, shelter, health, etc. So cycling was pretty low on the agenda.
Period of bliss
I then hit upon the reality that the crash would probably (possibly) take a few years to really effect me (white, middle class, professional etc.) So during this period when "others" were having a hard time affording to drive and before my luck runs out and I loose my job etc riding would be much more common and accepted behaviour.
Between times
My latest thoughts have been that there will be a period of time of dislocation for many motorists; this is where I think we are now. This is a time where the average Joe who lives in a location where he must drive to is getting squeezed financially in all sorts of ways and is pretty angry and scared. A simple and easy outlet for this resentment is to direct it towards people who can't fight back and seem to be getting something for nothing - cyclists. In short I think we're in a dangerous time for cycling, but in a short time "Joe" will have had to cede his V8 SUV to cycle to the closest transit station to get to work. Moreover more and more of Joe's mates will be doing the same thing, so it will be us and us (not us and them).
Those were just a few thoughts of a generally happy bloke; it's not the end of the world.... But if you go down the road and around the bend you can see it :)
Cheers, Justin
I'll be lurking again now......
Since he lived 4 gallons from the old job, the distance was too great to allow bicycle use plus mass transit would be very difficult if not full-scale impossible. Each dislocated motorist will face a unique set of nasty choices.
I wouldn't be surprised if road rage worsens as people make that final approach to when they park their car for good. They will know the jig is up and their credit cards are maxed out and they realise they can no longer afford to drive.
The thing to do is watch and listen at your workplace as the long-range commuters get squeezed first. For a given salary, they become the first casualties of PO and the commuting mission. Of course, that's becuse the gas prices bite them first and hardest. You might have already had a coworker who is a PO casualty already.
Let me call you by your first name. In Central California that is definitely of note. Also, even a Harley motorbike gets 50mpg.
We had a splurge of the two-cycle little bikes with a motor about a year back, but now we are seeing more and more electric bikes/scooters
My anecdotal impression in recent months is that people who pass my bike driving a real guzzler tend to really "zoom" past me and ahead, far faster than the speed limit, as if to justify to themselves why they suffer with those gas bills.
Nevertheless, most drivers here in Vermont are not too dangerous to bicyclists, and the number of bicyclists has been rising, it seems.
Not many bikers in the winter though! And those electric cars (and PHEVs) some people here are promoting would have a hard time providing heat, too. Or even AC in the summer, which some consider essential...
Happens all the time when I'm riding the bike. A few weeks ago a Mustang gunned past me. I was on my way to work and was trying not to sweat, but I passed him sitting in line at the next light. He gunned it again, but I passed him at the next light. This went on for half a mile and he just got angrier and angrier. I finally eased into the left turn lane and passed him again before taking a left. He used a lot of gas for little effect.
I lived in NH for a few years, and I wonder if EVs would start on some of those brutally cold mornings. They say pedaling your Twike keeps you warm enough.
MadMaxout, I'm from Chicago and I grew up riding as described. It's different now.