DrumBeat: July 17, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 17, 2006 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
From the Wall St. Journal: Oil rigs leave Gulf of Mexico for more lucrative jobs
This is expected to accelerate production declines in the Gulf, putting upward pressure on domestic energy prices. The rig exodus is squeezing what was an already tight market for drilling equipment. In 2001, about 148 rigs were in the Gulf. Now, about 90 remain, and more are expected to leave soon.The rig migration will have the most pronounced effect on natural-gas production and prices because most of the rigs leaving the Gulf are jack-ups used to find gas in shallower waters. Gulf gas reservoirs are often quickly exhausted, so energy companies must keep punching new wells to maintain production.
Despite surging fuel costs, Americans keep on trucking
NEW YORK (AFP) - Soaring fuel costs have so far failed to dampen US enthusiasm for hitting the road in summer...."The American consumer's demand for gasoline is insatiable," said Jason Schenker, Wachovia Securities, who noted only modest changes in auto preferences of US motorists.
But it's starting to hurt: Pinched at the Pump
High fuel prices are pushing some drivers to the financial brink—and to the pawnshop for gas money. Low-wage earners are feeling the most pain.
Greenland makes oil companies melt
From Korea: High Oil Prices Take Toll on Firms
According to the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), which in May surveyed 627 firms in the metropolitan area, 63.2 percent of local companies said they would have to halt business operations if international oil prices surpass $80 a barrel.
From Australia: Slashing greenhouse gas would cut GDP
Achieving deep cuts to Australia's greenhouse gas emissions would slash the nation's GDP and require massive reductions in industry output, a new report suggests.
India can't accept cap on its energy consumption
U.S.: House urges IT managers to buy energy-saving servers
WASHINGTON -- Power usage at fast-growing server farms became an issue for Congress last week. The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a bill requiring a federal study of ways to improve the energy efficiency of servers and data centers.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/07/the_canary_proj.php#perma
I was watching the Discovery channel
program last night hosted by Tom Brokaw
titled Global Warming - What You Need to Know ..
and it sort of hit me .. TPTB won't be mentioning
Peak Oil and depletion issues going forward to
engineer societal change .. the public focus for
change will be the GW issue .. The proposed
"solutions" or mitigation strategies would be
identical to those required to address depletion
and Peak Oil .. I got the distinct impression that
the PR wonks feel GW is a more 'saleable' issue
than depletion or Peak Oil would be for public
'education' purposes ..
Triff ..
Some Yes, some No. True for Conservation, Electrification of Transportation, wind & nuke. Not true for coal to liquids, tar sands, oil shale.
I think this distinction that you made is an important one.
It's not like we loose (we being enviro-peak-oilers) when politicians lead with GW.
Indeed, GWers and environmentalists would lose if politicians (as some do) led with energy security.
Peak Oil may undo a couple of hundred years of industrialization.
Global Warming threatens to undo a few million years of evolution.
The call to "care for the environment" has resulted in a good record of altruistic behavior in Americans, yeah say what you will, but you don't have the kind of "litterbugs" I remember as a little kid, etc there have been changes. If the propaganda is heavy enough, people will change if they figure it's "no skin off my nose, and it's a nice thing to do". And the anti-littering propaganda in the 70s was pretty pervasive as an example - it got results.
Peak Oil on the other hand is just plain fackin' scary. Scary stuff has always resulted in more selfish behavior - exactly what we don't need.
I think GW is scarier than PO, which is why I advocate only PO solutions that help both PO & GW. We would be better served with a Depression and less GW than with a recession & more GW.
http://www.countercurrents.org/po-church170706.htm
The opening qoute has never been more applicable:
"Down one road lies disaster, down the other utter catastrophe.Let us hope we have the wisdom to choose wisely." - Woody Allen
Yogi Berra
Maid with golden hair
Sunshine came along with thee,
And swallows in the air.
While we are PO-aware here, most people aren't unless one of us manages to talk one-on-one with someone. Lots of people like to scapegoat oil companies, Arabs, etc. for the ever-climbing gas prices.
But there is a critical difference between the two issues: With GW, we can choose to mitigate it and use less, but PO will force us to use less! Big difference. The gas prices (and its trickle-down effects) will force the mitigation. After all, tar sands are hard to extract. And shale is probably a done deal in terms of being too hard to extract.
Not even close. Does GW have the potential to cause die-back to pre-industrial revolution population levels (1.5 billion people or less)?? Peak fossil fuels is a far more serious problem for civilization in general and it's severe effects will occur much faster.
No need for summer vacations in Spain, etc.
Crocodile teeth have been found in the high Canadian Artic islands, along with warm temperate tree species.
Having plenty of rainfall, often fairly well distributed over the months makes it very easy to get fresh water and good crops and gives us plenty of hydro power.
I rather have rainfall and a green summer then a nice summer vacation where one can see brown vegetation. The other extreme, a new ice age, is of course even worse.
GW threatens to cause the extinction of a significant portion of the species on our planet. GW means leaving our children a home that is barren in comparison to the world we inherited from out parents. What are all the implications of that? I can't begin to imagine.
Here at the leading edge we will watch coral reefs and polar bears dissapear from the planet. But that is just the beginning. I am confident that 10 generations from now our children will look back and condemn us for poisoning the abundance of life on our planet. The fact that we burned through our oil so fast will just be a side note, a cause, but not an especially relevant effect.
GW "losers" will migrate or die-off and the disruption from that will carry over into social disruption and a decline in technological civilization (worst case).
First you create an evil bogeyman, (9-11=Iraq), in the case of Global warming it's anyone who disagrees with the supposed scientific consensus.
Now we are in the "you are either with us or against us" mode of thinking.
Next comes Colin Powell and his charts and graphs proving, or in this case, whichever scientists agree with the case that Humans are causing Global Warming.
Finally anyone who questions you can be considered an uncritical behometh intent on destroying the planet.
Or in the case of Iraq anyone who opposes the war is a coward and is giving into the terrorists. Who had the courage to say no? Certainly not our politicians.
http://wired-vig.wired.com/news/wireservice/0,71042-0.html?tw=wn_politics_lifescience_12
Scary but not caused by humans.
The truth is the Bush admin has been on the BS side of both arguments, Iraq and GW.
BTW, how do you explain the WW GC that took place from 1950 to 1975?
Here's a good one:
http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/
Meanwhile, back to PO ...
The world didn't look the same in those days; sea level was 80 feet higher...
How fast can this go? Right now, I think our best measure is what happened in the past. We know that, for instance, 14,000 years ago sea levels rose by 20m in 400 years - that is five meters in a century. This was towards the end of the last ice age, so there was more ice around. But, on the other hand, temperatures were not warming as fast as today.
How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today - which is what we expect later this century - sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don't act soon. None of the current climate and ice models predict this. But I prefer the evidence from the Earth's history and my own eyes. I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself.
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article345926.ece
Carbon dioxide level highest in 650,000 years
mongabay.com
November 24, 2005
Carbon dioxide levels are now 27 percent higher than at any point in the last 650,000 years, according to research into Antarctic ice cores published on Thursday in Science.
http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1124-climate.html
And it is ours. Isotope studies.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases -are-due-to-human-activities-updated/
I think that's called plate tectonics - the change in climate during that period occurred over the course of millions of years, not the 150 or so years during which anthropogenic warming has taken place...
don't confuse local warming with global warming...
classic technique from the naysayers - they can pick out every one year anomaly and use it to support their position but as soon as someone says wow - the hottest five years on record have been over the past decade - well, they are the first to scream "that doesn't prove anything, there's no trend, there's no trend, we were cold 750,000 years ago for 3 weeks how do you reconcile that ?"
Those that deny climate change just want to use smoke and mirrors to continually move the goal posts for the burden of proof. Nothing would ever be good enough. Scientists have been digging further and further back into the climatological record and keep coming up with the same answers - but if they give you 10,000 years well that's not enough; if they give you 100,000 years that's not good enough; ok, well we're up to 650,000 years now - yeah but what about 650,002 years ago blah blah blah blah... There was an ecologist (I think) who was quoted as saying we were going to go down in history as a species who studied every miniscule detail of our own extinction... Troll ostriches like "oil" seem to want to guarantee this happens as we roast the planet...
It's all a bunch of nonsense - the whole argument - the case is closed - we have been and are inducing warming. Now we need to figure out how to deal with it
My take on GW is, even if it's not caused by humans, it's proven that human activities can have a great impact on the atmosphere, land, ocean, so "whoever" caused it, there's a wide range of possible responses by us, to either act as responsible members of the biosphere and help counteract it, or act like dumb yeast and help the Earth become another Venus.
So I'd add "coal-to-coal" to Alan's list of problem technologies.
Of course, we are having power outages as we speak due to the hot weather. Surprise, surprise, July is hot this year. Who knew?
The question, of course, is what could be done to make a moratorium feasible. We could begin by mandating that all new capacity be solar, wind, hydro, or any other methods that doesn't add to the GHG problem. Second, we could require that air conditioners be universally required to cycle off and on during peak times of the days, as is currently done on a voluntary basis in California. No doubt there are dozens of other things that could be done almost immediately.
Where there is a will, there is a way. I know, what a cliche. But in this case, I think it is true. Also, we could shut down the internet. No, just kidding on that last one. But seriously though, there is apparently a lot that could be done to make all those server farms more efficient. The federal government is on the case so I'm sure that problem will be solved in short order.
How many power plants could we save by just replacing all our bulbs with CFLs. Or turning of the lights, for Chrissakes.
of understanding of the subject matter ..
From a govenment's propaganda campaign point
of view it's going to be alot easier to rally
the troops around the necessary changes in our
energy habits/lifestyles via the GW argument
rather than the realities of PO/fossil fuel
depletion ..
TPTB have to use a 'cover story' .. I'm just
advocating that GW is what's going to be used
to accomplish powerdown/PO mitigation/fuel
switching etc etc ..
Triff ..
Subaru has promised hybrids from time to time (and their parent company makes some for the asian market?), but so far ... they are leaning more toward the performance market in the US.
If you live in snow/mountain country (I don't) the outback from Subaru is almost a requirement because of the all wheel drive. Lots in Colorado for example.
Their 2005 Outback met very tough emissions standards in California to make them a "green" car. Interestingly, their Forester did not.
I am a long time Subaru owner (have one now, and six in the past - I need the 4w drive for work) but shortly plan on going for the Ford Escape hybrid.
I used to live in upstate NY, lots of snow and ice, and while the hills were small they could be steep. Never had a problem in my old Saab. I remember cruising down the MassPike in a blinding blizzard, cars off the road every mile or so, every one of them an SUV -- though I don't remember if any were Subarus ;) I think the 4wd requirement in snow is often more a desire than a need, and too often a crutch to make up for lack of judgment. Having said that, 4wd is definitely a plus, right behind 1. driving technique, and 2. snow tires (it still amazes me how many people won't drop $400 on snow tires for their $30000+ SUVs...)
O.K. requirement is too strong, let us say liked, especially if you do not want to put on snow chains.
Wish I could get it in diesel, and hang out at the dumpsters of all the greasy diners in town.. But we still get low 30's, and use our bikes and sneakers when we can avoid driving.
IMO, they are the best.
Bob
Don S: had good luck with Bridgestone Blizzaks, might be newer and better things now.
While I do mostly town or rural trips, I have no need for a Pick-up or a 4WD. I get by (like many other folks around here) with a small Toyota Corrola. Small cars are very popular around here.
When you work as a lumberjack,have week-end leisure or any work in the forest, you need a pick-up.
While I think I could make a difference if they'd use something else, I dont think It would amount to anything significative.
The bulk of our petroleum compsumtion is from forestry machinery and agricultural uses. I know that filling one forest "camp" with diesel for a week need the same amount of liquid than a regular gas station for a full year.
A a side note forest "camp" are much more spacious than they were 30 years ago. They dont freeze in winter, you have to put on slippers after comming in. A large locker room is located next to the entrance, for putting up working clothes. They have satelite TV, phone, highspeed internet, pool tables, large cafeteria with many choices of all you can eat food. Many of food choices are pretty healthy for that matter, even vegeterian menu from time to time.
Ah, cause the times they are a changing!
"Hey ! Jake was next"
"Well now we're next beeowitch and you're just a loser"
"Oh my. There is a Hummer ad. It shows me how to Get My Girl On. As God is my witness, I will buy that Hummer and never go hungry for status again. Ma loser days are a Gone with the Wind foreever. Jake shall never be pushed or pulled off that pride slide again. Frankly I give a damn. Wheee."
they did forget a few things, they forgot to say after mentioning the natural variance in the earth orbit that it was already ruled out as a cause.
they forgot the mention the major feedback loop of melting permafrost.
but the worst thing of all out of the whole thing is their mention that we can have our cake and eat it too and all you have to do is change a couple little light bulbs, go deeper into debt buying yet another car, wile unplugging appliances when not in use. NOT a single mention of the initial carbon cost(excluding the unplugging, though still it doesn't do a thing to their initial carbon debt.) of everything they tout as a solution which none of them actually do anything to take ANY c02 out of the air.
Hint being carbon neutral is taking OUT the c02 you put in NOT just putting out a little less. It's like telling people they will get out of the hole they are in by using a hand shovel instead of a larger one while they dig.
I hope i will stay alive long enough to be in line for the 'HA-ha' moment.
You might also note that humanity has no possiblity of altering asteroid strikes hundreds of millions of years ago. Altering current behavior is at least a theoretical possibility.
Even if neither you nor I expect it.
I do remember that alt energy got its big push in the 70s.
Ain't no global warming here. None at all...
This 110-120 degrees in South Dakota is completely normal!
And the heat wave hitting Britain is completely normal!
And the 90 degree temps coast-to-coast in the US are completely normal!
And the violent changes in Alaskan climate are completely normal!
And nevermind reams of data about what's happening. We don't need no stinkin' data! We know that the American way of life is NON-NEGOTIABLE, even with god, nature, and the laws of physics!
/end sarcasm
http://www.amconmag.com/2006/2006_07_17/cover.html
But be warned - this is written by a (former?) Republican. One of his books has gotten a bit of attention in the last few months, too.
I wrote a post over at TOD NYC about Rudy Guiliani entering NY State's energy debate.
Drivers take a ride instead
Now I don't really know how these programs work but it doesn't matter. If they are giving these cars to people who need them, the worst cars get donated to the worst off and become a money pit for these people. Especially if the car is an oversized SUV that many people will be giving away soon anyway. Now if they auction these vehicles then the fair market is going to collapse and the write off for these vehicles is going to be nil and there will be no incentive to donate the vehicle.
Now this could be good b/c the people will be forced to make an alternate choice as to what to do with the vehicle or it could be bad that many people abandon these vehicles as the cheaper alternative to dealing with it. We've got a lot of older, less efficient vehicles on the road and I believe many will start to make choices that will ultimately result in alot of scrap metal being available.
Fortunately for the bourgeoisie everywhere, the poor tend to be pretty meek. I'm not sure what happens if PO reduces the middle classes to poverty, but my guess is they'll be rather irritated by it. And they may behave poorly.
No problem.
Ample literature here; if you need some references I'll cite some, but this problem is easy to solve.
I hate electronically controlled fuel injection with a purple passion. Please, do not encourage me to go there.
And yet it is exactly these technologies that are boosting milage and performance.
Just because YOU don't understand 'em is no reason for the hate'n.
As a pilot, I can fly a DC-3 with ease. An F-22 . . . forget about it. Damn things are unstable and will kill you.
BTW, I like the DC-2 even better than the DC-3, because the older plane will stay aloft in extreme icing conditions that bring down the noble Gooney Birds.
Once upon a time one of the manufacturers would mark a piston top with a little notch the size of a grain of rice to identify the proper installation direction. Simple, efective, and not acceptable anymore - that little dent traps too much in the way of unburned fuel, and blows the emissions numbers. It's a good indication of just how accurately controlled these engines are.
My '88 Jeep still has a carb, and it's well set up, but the vacuum control systems are so complex! There are not too many people who actually understand how all that stuff works - plenty who think they do though. I've got datasheets on all those vacuum devices. But for all that complexity, it's non-feedback and does not work anywhere near as well as a modern EFI system. Even the small production tolerances caused a large percentage of vehicles to run poorly, and the system could not compensate.
On the otherhand, my simple 4cyl 2wd 5spd pickup (16yrs old) has multipoint EFI with a mass airflow sensor, distributerless ignition with multiple sparkplugs per cylinder & knock sensor, upstream and downstream O2 sensors, and heated intake air for faster warmup. If it rains and a little rust gets in the tailpipe end, you can drive it a couple of days and the rust will stay just as bright. No soot, and it will do 29mpg on the highway. But you have to roll the windows up yourself.
If you want any kind of efficiency or economy, you need a digital EFI system, but you can keep the rest of the thing light and simple.
go figure!
But you have a point, the first two Gripen crashes were due to control system problems due to the pilot trying to fly the aeroplane in the traditional sense. There is a time lag between stick movement and aeroplane movement due to control surface authority and inertia. The pilot wanted to correct the aeroplane and moved the stick in what his reflexes said where the right direction but the time delay meant that the aeroplane reacted on his second last movement while he were moving the stick in the other direction. This gave a feedback loop that increased the movement untill the aeroplane went out of control. If he had been a playstation player and moved the stick to the direction he wanted the aeroplane to move and not tried to fly it nothing much would have happened. This prompted a development of new control system laws to dampen such a feedback, I have to look up if the control stick also were made stiffer and harder to move.
More than any other machine, the Hurricane won the Battle of Britain. Late in WWII Hurriboxes were converted into ground-attack planes that carried rockets or cannon (up to 75 mm, I believe) or bombs in addition to machine guns and high-speed 20 mm cannon.
Of World War II aircraft, I believe the Hurricane is the most underappreciated. It can still turn inside any modern fighter, and if you know how to spin it correctly, you can make the machine drop like a stone into a nearby cloud, which is a trick that has saved many a pilot's bacon.
Video games and fly-by-wire makes it possible to indeed build a "peoples' fighter" while fortunately the Germans couldn't. There are millions of potential pilots itching to get behind the joystick! Eh? Where's the keys to that SR-71? I want to drive to Miami from Chicago in 40 minutes!
Those crafty Brits kept making movies, etc. about the Spitfire and glamorizing that excellent (but hard to fly and a bitch to fix) plane in hopes that the Germans would never twig to the fact that at full-throttle the octane-boosted Hurriboxes were shooting down the 109s at a ratio of four or five to one. Indeed, the RAF purposely falsified shoot-down numbers to make it look as if the Spit were the better plane--which it is not. The Hurricane was a superb gun platform and stunning at aerobatics. (The Spits were about even with the ME 109s, but the Brit pilots were better than most of Goering's lice-infested luftwaffe flyboys. For some reason, Germans have always skimped on training their fighter pilots--a false economy that persists to this day. Shortage of fuel??? Dumb, anyway.)
How would one rank German pilots? Personally I would put them number 5.
Americans
Israelis
British
Russians
Germans
Historically they would come number three after Americans and British, although it may be contested between 1 and 2 with the English-speakers.
You could even make the case for Germans at number 4.
Who makes the best sailors? I'll say Americans. Greeks are number 2.
Don't forget the Brits are masters of low flying - both above and below ground.
No one has had a thread that dealt with actually trying to do something about the rapidly growing (and unsustainable) population in the USA (and the world). So, I thought I'd try to attempt to jump start a discussion of possible means of accomplishing this.
One of the things that I have heard stated often is the need for a carbon tax and or gasoline tax to reduce energy consumption. What about a "Birth Tax"?
Your first born child is tax free. Your second child incurs a birth tax of $5000 plus an annual population tax of $2000 per year until the child is 21 years of age. Your third child incurs a birth tax of $10000 and an annual population tax of 5000 per year until the child is 21. Anyone who has a child and cannot pay the birth or population tax is sterilized (man and woman) (Note: sterilized is just pregnancy prevention, it doesn't keep them from still having fun)
And of course the deduction for children on the income tax would be eliminated too.
This isn't being put forward as the best or only system, but just as an idea to start discussion on the best way to accomplish the halting of the continued population growth and eventually the reduction to sustainable levels. Surely some of you out there have some really great ideas to accomplish population reduction ?
A flat tax, in contrast, like a 3% increase in income tax per child under 18, might act as a more balanced disincentive.
Newton barely made it, Faraday was born quite poor, so was Edison for that matter and they thought he was "addled". Dickens was born poor, or was born somewhere in the lower reaches of the middle class and then his family became very poor, I forget which. In either case his family wouldn't have been able to pay the tax.
And what do you do if the family can't pay that $2k a year tax? What do you do with a say, 11 year old whom you owe back taxes on? Too young to put into uniform, there's always child prostitution though......
The USA is already a scary place, even before peak.
I never noticed any stench about fermenting silage bales. Its a lactic acid fermentation and they dont stench although it smells in an aromatic way.
I think there is a large risk that he us pulling Kunstlers leg.
Bagged silage is very popular in Sweden. Its main benefits are that it is much more flexible then a fixed size pit silo or vertical silo. It locks up less capital in equipment. You can make the silage with fewer workers working at the same time wich is good for small farms. Quality problems and freak accidents tend to wreck one or a few bales instead of manny tons. You can use them at a lower pace, a pit silo needs to be emptied faster to keep ahead from spoiling on the exposed end. This has spawned a nich for smaller bales of not as rich silage for hobby horses. They make it a lot easier to transport and trade silage. The machines are suitable for cooperation between manny small farmers. The main drawback is indeed the cost for plastic even if it is recycled, I dont know what it is recycled for.
An odd use of this technology is bagging garbage during summertime to incinerate for heat production during wintertime. The bags need to be air tight otherwise the biomass part of the garbage start to rot and you loose energy content. That is probably one main reason for not mining old dumps for the energy content wich would be a neat way of financing a repackaging of the waste with a better technology. But they are sometimes energy mined thru catching the release of methane.
or chicken "guano"
Laughing or crying - it is a matter of where you live, I guess.
Actually, the white 'hay balls' seem to be pretty rare this harvest season around here - a couple of years ago, they were much more common. I have no idea why, but German farmers are both very price conscious, and within their own framework, very environmentally conscious. I can imagine that getting rid of the used plastic turned out to be a bad deal in some way, probably due to some idiotic German Green inspired laws, which stop profitable businesses just trying to bring prosperity and growth to all because of some abstract concern over sustainability or something.
tax = X * income * kids with the X being the tax multiplier in a less-than-unity format like property taxes. The state government collects this tax instead of school districts to prevent wildly huge budgets in rich suburbs. This would do much to discourage childbirth and also distribute education money more evenly.
I would outlaw fertility drugs by making them Schedule 1 Controlled Substances like heroin. If you are infertile, adopt!
http://www.censusscope.org/us/rank_popl_growth.html
Population growth in the U.S. as of now is approximately 3 million people per year and climbing. Immigration accounts for approximately 1 million of that increase.
Try the following site:
http://www.npg.org/popfacts.htm
There is also a good paper on illegal immigration:
http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:c-MoHHFKZmgJ:uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/Ill_Re port_1211.pdf+%22population+growth%22+Census+United+States&hl=en&gl=ca&ct=clnk&cd=8
(There is a pdf version of the above.)
In short, the U.S. population is increasing--and legals and illegals do not account for the entire increase.
But recent arrivals tend to have larger families than those who have been here awhile. Eventually, they assimilate, and family size drops, but it takes 2-4 generations.
That is what they mean when they say immigration accounts for all U.S. population growth. Without those two effects - immigrants increasing population by moving here, and by having larger families once they get here - the U.S. would have a population growth rate similar to Europe's.
My own family is a perfect example. My great-grandparents were fresh off the boat, and had something like 13 kids (that lived). My grandparents had 5-6 kids. My parents' generation had 1-3 kids. My generation has 0-2 kids.
My Great Grand Parents - 16 kids
My Grand Parents - 9 kids
My Parents - 3 kids
I have - 2 kids
-C.
The issue is profligate consumption habits. If you allow one person to emigrate from China, India, or Asia, local oil consumption will drop by about 2 barrels per year. If he moves to the US, and acts like the locals, his consumption will grow to 24 barrels per annum. Approximate numbers:
Their consumption increases by 33% because the family has grown from 3 to 4, and it goes up a further 1200% because they are now consuming like Americans.
The world already has an unsustainable population, so population growth is really problematic. But the worst thing we can do is compound the effect by moving people from low consumption areas to high consumption areas.
Gotta remember that people are GOOD and more people are MORE good.
Please don't misread my point, and take it as prejudicial if you will: one American baby, regardless of where his parents are from, will use more than 12 times the oil of a baby born in the developing world.
Over-breeding by itself is a problem that creates unsupportable exponential growth. Overbreeding hyper-consumers creates a growth rate that is unfathomable. But I suppose it will be self-correcting.
My idea- people good, less people, more good. Way less people, way more good. Problem of course, how to get there without hurting good people.
Maybe the available level of energy and land has allowed previous generations to give birth to many childs. Given also the opportunity of less war, more food available and less desease, a lot lived good lifes.
For my own familly:
great great grand-mother: 12 children, some died while babies
great grand-mother: 12 children 1 died while a baby
grand-mother : 7 children
Mother : 4 children
Me : none at 30 years old. I have one neice (1 yo)
I guess that what happened is the possibility of raising and giving enough for each children droped as each one required more as generations passed by. First generations needed less per children to live: food, clothes, roof (small), 1 horse, some books.
Each next generation elevated the number and real price of things needed to go trough life. Those "minimal" requirements putted a cap on how many child that could be fostered.
Emmanuel Todd and other stated that women litteracy also put a cap on child per familly. As women get more educated, they tend to work more out of the home, preventing a too large familly building and assuring a better familly income.
A larger familly income was needed from the start of the seventies probably because of increase in energy prices. That larger income commanded more work, thus women entering the workforce in droves.
Now we can say that occidental countries have a large percentage of women working, thus putting a lid on child birth.
While it slowed the growth pace, I think the result is not the same as previous generations. As prof Albert Bartlett stated (and the exponatial function by itself for that matter) even a small percentage of growth (1%) of a large number insure a doubling after 70 periods.
As for our propension to growth, I think it cannot be controled in a "choosen or intelligent" way. I mostly agree that we will grow our population until we are not able to. War will be waged at some points or new desease will spread faster because of promiscuity. It occured in the past and it will in the future.
One thing is sure, child birth will always be as high as minimum cultural material needs can be acheived for any generation (now or in the future)
Pascal
But because of the flood on immigrants into this country our poulation is also increasing dramatically and our birth rate is again rising because immigrants with no tradition of women's rights or education have a higher birth rate. Add to that, there is a movement to take away womn's control over their reproductive rights because some old men have become concerned about possible population declines...
After all, the higher a woman's income, the nicer are the places she can take me to;-)
That being said, I always thought a better solution would be to create a market. Every female at birth is given 2.1 "child credits" (2.1 being the rough steady state children/women ratio, given the fact that males tend to die at a slightly higher rate before reaching adulthood. If you want to reduce the population, lower the number.) You cash one credit in with each birth, and these credits are transferable. You want a 3rd kid? Find someone who doesn't want to use all their credits and will sell you 0.9 credits to go along with your spare 0.1 .
Want to stick with 1 kid? You can sell your spare 1.1. Feel compelled to do more to reduce the population? Don't use or sell your credits.
Of course, there is still a question about enforcement. And what about "accidents"? And still, when you start taking reproductive rights, raw nerves are touched everywhere you turn. Lots of people reject any birth control, even basic contraception, and would be willing to fight violently about it. And unfortunately I am sure some guys would balk at giving women so much control.
There is an alternative. Mother Nature has her own methods of population controls than are much more brutal and nasty. Our choice, I suppose.
Anthrax
Avian Flu
Nuclear accidents
Smallpox
Lhassa fever
and of course, the traditional, plain old war-- which at the moment seems to be having the most success.
So many great ideas . . . so many abandoned for no good reason.
But why tax the poor mom when the father of the child runs away scout free. Tax every male older than 14, if he has a kid, he pays for it by the tax, if he has two kids, its double if he has three kids, he just works for the state.
I don't think taxing kids will work. Want a revolt?
The reason the US population is growing is in the influx of families and workers and others from other countries, for a while there we had reached a good slow pace. Not as slow as other nations, but slow.
I don't like to think of a Government handling the genetic code to control population, but it seems that sooner or later someone is going to think its a good idea and slip it in a bill and WHAM DNA tests to see if we want you to reproduce or not.
There will always be some cheating, of course, but that would be true of any system.
(1) the charge that only the rich get to have (many) kids, which is a serious charge in the eyes of those who think that there's nothing better than having lots of kids, and that that's a basic human right (not that I agree with that view), and:
(2) the still open question of what is to be done to, or about, people who break the rules (or have an "accident") and have an "illegal" child. Schemes that punish the parents financially, while they are also financially responsible for taking care of the child, hurt the child, who is of course not to blame for the parents' transgression. (Although any society with major wealth disparities that leaves poor parents to struggle alone to support their children cannot claim to be on the high ground of this issue.)
So although I think that population control should be our first priority, I still don't see a workable method that can be called "humane". (How did they enforce the one-child rule in China?) Of course it could be argued that a not-quite-humane scheme of birth control is still far better than Nature's method of death control. When there won't be enough food (or employment, or health care) for everybody, will the rich who will hold on to their privileges (i.e. luxuriate while others starve) still claim that birth control is immoral?
Perhaps one relatively humane solution is forced sterilization of anybody (male or female) who has a third child. No financial penalty, no effect on the innocent third child, no impact on the parent's future fun, only denial of any additional pregnancies to those who already had more than their fair share.
Mandatory oral sex education beginning in the fifth grade.
Guaranteed to work.
It beats genocide.
Isn't this the same as the plan presented above? You are saying nature is inhumane in terms of human population control, but a manmade credit system to better control the aggregate is less humane than nature? What we've got now IS inhumane accordiny to this thinking, so wouldn't an improvement be better? There will always be micro issues that have to be dealt with almost on a case by case basis.
The current reality is the same anyway. The rich in control now do have as many children as they please and do not worry about food. A credit based system would allow them to do that, but pay a bit more. By no means is one paragraph or even an essay going to answer ALL the questions, but in terms of an idea that has merit and a possibility at results should be entertained. Maybe this boils more down to a morality test since this would be a greater good concept and there would be losers at the expense of the collective planet. Awe too bad!
If that is ok how do you handle database errors? It would probably be quite an effective way to unhinge a competitors mind.
Are all fertile women to be forcibly checked for pregnancy every 6 months if they dont show up as scheduled? I guess it would have to start around the age of 12 to be on the safe side.
There are some major drawbacks to your suggestion.
The system does not need to be that intrusive, nor does it need to be perfect: if a few escape penalty, or have a third child (even if then punished), that is not a big deal. What's important is that the overall population growth is stopped, and that that is achieved mostly by people regulating their own behavior. The policy challenge is to find the policy that achieves that end result with the least unpleasantness. If you have better ideas on how to do that, let us know. If you are simply averse to any population control, then tell us how to avoid starvation.
I suppose you'll remind us that in Sweden (and many other currently-affluent countries) the population is declining. Some think that the same will happen everywhere once we achieve full industrialization. To that I say:
The only way population control can be constitutionally entered into in the USA that I can think of is by taxing more than one children families at very high rates. That would still allow for the rich to have more kids, but otherwise you are talking about revolution, and it would be more like the French (bloody) one than the USA 1776 one.
It is both taboo and one no politico could get elected on, at least for the next few years. . . .
Remember, we can talk about whatever we like, but as Otto von Bismarck said, "Politics is the art of the possible."
An alternative solution that have worked a few decades ago is if some people can be classified as not being fully human. An even worse idea.
What scares me most is that we have had a system where some people were classified as less worthy humans. We had a sterlization program running before and after the second world war, based on race research and cultivation of the people stock. Gypsies, mentally retarded and difficult women with socially unacceptable sexuality were sterelized. The last remnants of the program, sterilization of mentally retarded, did not stop untill the pill were developed. That part had the best motivation, they could not raise children but having sex were good for their quality of life.
I think things like this will return but organized on a personal level more or less like in the GATTACA movie. Why not choose your very best eggs or sperm? Sorted and perhaps with some gene tweaking. A lot of other people do it and random children are allmost allways handicapped in the competition...
The current average number of births is currently 1.75 in Sweden and the long term prognosis from www.scb.se is 1.85
The subsidy systems have knobs the government like to turn to financially reward having more children and they might somewhat work. There is an active competition for population between the municipialities, few like to live in a declining area. There is no overall craze for growth in population and decline is now and then talked about as a problem. It is sad when families die out and even worse if it would happen to whole cultures.
The side effect on the general education level would also be strongly positive IMO.
Oh, you could still use electric motors for racing, boating and sailplanes for flying, but that "temporary" ban on liquid fuel will stay permanent unless the population is cut drastically. (Or we come up with a new source of liquid fuel)
If the folks in Washington DC haven't thought about this yet, maybe someone should clue them in?
mention are big dollar industries with lobby
groups in D.C. Our current politcal system is
setup to resist change and is the reason I have
little hope regarding a way out of our energy
problems with little pain.
In Europe, they are trying to figure out how to increase the birth rate. Ditto Australia, which wants each family to have at least three kids. And one irate politician in Japan suggested cutting off social security benefits to women who don't have at least one child.
I'm reminded of the Roman and Mayan civilizations in their decline, when they couldn't feed their existing populations but nevertheless tried to get people to have more kids. Even when it meant starving the men in order to feed the women.
Musso's idea did not work.
Italy now has, I think, the very lowest birthrate in Western Europe. People cannot afford both a car and a second child--so they buy the car.
A famous sociologist said:
"The prospect of owning a motor car has been sufficient to sterilize much of the English middle class." or words to that effect.
I wonder if it's really come down to that, low birth rates because if it's a kid or a car, people choose the car often enough that less kids get born?
Of course one American driving a car is about equivalent to what, 10, even 20, third-worlders? Is our population in the developed world really decreasing? It all comes down to energy use.
The Mayans did this? And here I thought I had read just about everything concerning the collapse of the Classic Mayan Empire, but I have never heard of this one.
Actually very little is known about the collapse of the Classic Maya. No glyphs record the collapse. They only record the war victories and the human sacrifices to the gods, along with other things about the succession of kings, calendars and such. The glyphs stop exactly where the collapse began. There is however a skimpy archeological record of the collapse. It seemed to be sudden where the people turned on the priesthood and the noble elite. Probably because they were starving and the priest could not make it rain. They have found bone-piles of people with notched front teeth, a mark worn only by priest and others of high rank.
I wonder if our priest, preachers and illustrious leaders will suffer the same fate when our collapse arrives?
I'm reminded of the Roman and Mayan civilizations in their decline, when they couldn't feed their existing populations but nevertheless tried to get people to have more kids. Even when it meant starving the men in order to feed the women.
A few questions come to mind: were they trying to have more kids, or were they trying to ensure that the children be reasonably nourished, since that was the future? If productivity is falling, but it requires an investment to achieve productivity, what do you do? Was it so clear to them (or even to us) that they had reached the carrying capacity of the land? Since the collapse was region-wide, what options were available?
The reasons are pretty obvious, when you think about it. It's for the same reason Japan, Italy, France, Australia, etc., think declining population is a problem. People are power. Especially before the Age of Oil, when the more densely populated society tended to win conflicts. You need laborers, consumers, soldiers. Especially if you are in conflict with another society.
Even when you know your population is too large, you can't afford to scale back. Not when your hostile neighbor isn't. They'll have more laborers, soldiers, taxpayers, than you, and end up kicking your butt.
It's not a pleasant conclusion but we are what we are. Look at these threads about population control. Population growth cannot continue forever, yet it runs on unabated while we don't impose external controls. We are bred to breed. Our genes drive us to breed, so we do. To control our genes means we have to choose to control ourselves.
Regardless, I am convinced that homo sapiens is currently incapable of addressing that problem so nature will address it as usually happens for other species in overshoot. Nature's solution will be "ugly" by human standards, but when it's over someone can point to that and say "Gee, how'd we have that accident? We can avoid it next time! Let's do it again!" And off we will go, still totally oblivious to the power of exponential functions. ;)
William Goldman (Hollywood Screenwriter)
As all the discussion on this thread illustrates, we now do know that: "our genes are not our friends".
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
But really, you can't expect to be 'friends' with your genes. YOU have to 'be the Multi-celled organism'.. you're bigger than them, and they depend on you not to lead them astray. Yes, I know.. 'And a gene shall lead us' and all, but take some responsibility. Set up a playdate between your little Genies and some neighbor Yeasties, and see that they all play nice.
You are standing at the lever of a switch track. A train is coming, but 5 people are standing on the track and will get hit unless you flip the switch track to divert the train. But if you do so, a sixth person is standing on the track and will get hit in that case.
The population dilemma is similar. You can impliment any number of policies like forced sterilisation, forced abortion, etc. all of which are ugly. But if you do nothing, nature will impliment its own methods - which are even uglier. The politicians are merely leaving the lever alone to avoid losing the religious vote. It would be like walking away from the lever and calling 911 to avoid getting your DNA on the lever and avoid probable prosecution for murder.
Which "next time"?
There is at least 3 unsupported assumptions behind this:
- Someone will be there at some later point in time to say "Gee...".
- Memories of the collapse causes will have been kept in some form and with better accuracy than the usual legends about floods, etc...
- There will be ressources and skills to restart civilisation for a good "next time".
Plus, how about what we already know from civilisations collapses, Tainter, Diamond et als which does not seem to have ANY impact on the ambient sillyness?
I would say that time is NOW OR NEVER!
There is no solution to the current massive overshoot of people on this planet. Peak oil and the anarchy that will follow will surely take care of that problem. Natue gave us this detrius and nature gave us the prodgeny that sprang from the energy and food it produced, and nature shall surely take it away.
davet, I have always doubted the notion that PO and the exhaustion of other resources would bring the end of growth for good. First the potential for "doing more with less (resouces)" is yet to be discovered. Second we could well turn into a society where spiritual and intellectual products begin to be cherished more by the society and this will still be regarded as "growth" in the future, though probably maybe not by the todays standards. Third, a declining population would mean there will be more for fewer, and I don't see why a sustainable, slower-growth equilibrium with environment can not be met in the long run.
Of course these are all best case scenarious, but it is worth as a guidance for the direction to go, right? We will "only" need to evolve to a system that does not stimulate the excessive consumption and misallocation of resources between rich and por that we ave today...
A fully static equilibrium is of course unlikely.
EVERY regulation works by monitoring changes and introducing negative feedback, the changes are a MUST.
The whole point is to avoid "crash" i.e. irrecoverable damage.
Unfortunately I think "we're there" and damage there will be.
But that does not mean we cannot try to minimize damage and plan for a smarter mode of operations thereafter.
IMO stimulation population growth nowadays has little to do with political power, and everything to do with stimulating economic growth - more people -> more consumers&laborers -> more growth. Economic power supports military and political supremace, but this is not the primary reason, IMO.
The Europeans simply moved into the power vacuum created by the epidemic diseases and assumed control.
See Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel for more details.
Truly, one of the more interesting global conflicts currently raging under many guises is the power that women have gained in a number of societies, and what that power means in terms of both economic and reproductive freedom.
Germany is in a very special position in this debate, however, which is why you won't find too much information - both Italy and France are much better examples. The Nazis were huge fans of promoting the birth of appropriately suitable children, and quite honestly, they were so revolting in both conservative/religious/traditional terms (the Nazis were very radical, even in terms of sex) and in human terms (I knew a woman whose mother was a tall blond - though green eyed - with an identical twin - her mother was pampered in another type of Nazi camp, since she and her sister were obviously superior).
At this point, Germany is experiencing social shifts brought on by less children, some positive in the terms normally adopted for this debate, for example, an estimated savings of something like 100 billion euros for education over the next 15 years was reported on the radio recently. But there is a certain feeling of change or call it egoism or call it self-centeredness or call it inflexibility in a society with fewer children.
The social changes are deep and long lasting, and just beginning, I think.
But before the birth rate starts to climb significantly, women will have a much larger say than at any time for the last several thousand years. Unless civilization collapses first , of course - and listening to some of the more hysterical (that is a pun, sort of) men, you would think that women having less children is already the collapse of the comforting bosom of the society they grew up in (and did I just compare some of those men to momma's good boy, waiting for their beddy time story before dreaming of conquest? - sure did).
Personally, this sort of shift in human social relations is the sort of thing which people predicting doom tend to overlook - there are changes going on. Whether they are enough is another debate, but to say nothing is changing is simply wrong. Even if that change is painted as negatively as possible.
Now that oil prices are high and approaching the highest ever seen even with inflation is it possible to track demand destruction ?
The US stockpile remain good but if we really are starting to see real demand destruction imports should be falling off in other parts of the world.
We normally consider OCED countries but I suspect the initial impacts would be on the poorest countries. In any case if possible I think its time to start tracking worldwide demand as poorer nations get cut out of the global economy.
http://www.wunderground.com/ndfdimage/viewimage?type=maxt®ion=us
Is there any way we can tell how the grid is holding up (% of capacity, say), short of brownouts and full power outages?
This AP story about the heat wave notes that
Anyway, I rode up the San Gabriel River trail and saw a few energy related things. The cooling water outlets from the SCE power plants were positively churning. Seemed like more water than usual, I suppose they had the plants cranking (about a dozen turbines down there). The other was that the were drilling oil in Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, and Long Beach. Tip up rigs but with narrow pipe. The pipe was curved hanging in the rack. Two drills were less than a mile from the power plants. If they're getting natural gas, thats convenient.
Note the obvious ENRON-inspired "plant maintenance".
http://www.theimo.com/imoweb/siteShared/demand_price.asp?sid=ic
NA ng prices will increase, but international oil prices will decrease on account of rigs leaving the gulf because they are presumably going to where they will produce more oil.
But, that does not mean that oil prices will drop. It does not mean that oil production will increase. It just means that everybody is scrambling like hell to mitigate their production declines. It is actually quite a bad sign for world-wide production that rigs are suddenly in such short supply. It means that the Saudi's are working very hard to ensure their production. Something that has been very easy for them in the past.
They're looking at 50% energy demand growth by 2030, with 80% of that coming from fossil fuels.
The statement includes reference to adoption of the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI)
Since this was a major piece of the EU-US summit declaration as well, it seems that the international community has come to agree with Matt Simmons' rallying cry for globall oil production and reserves data transparency as a critical first step toward addressing the problems of peak oil, even if they don't seem to recognize peak oil itself.
The statement on global energy security also suggests an immediate need for crisis planning and the development of an international response to oil infrastructure threats as they arise.
The document also promotes the idea of top level international planning for energy efficiency and energy conservation, as well as the usual calls for development of alternative energies.
$650 currently buy 320 gallons of gasoline. Mr Godino is driving 4000 miles per month. 4000 divided by 320 yields 12.5 miles per gallon.
I hope the commute does kill him. Soon.
My bad.
Still, he could get a used Honda Civic and cut that bill in half for not very much money.
It's like all the 'Bedroom Communities' have become the new 'Debtors Prisons', and the inmates have no 'outside' to escape to, if they even know they're incarcerated.
What were the changes in bankruptcy law recently? Anybody remember what happened?
Because your country's greenhouse gas contributions affect your country, my country, and Greenland to a much larger degree than Greenland's greenhouse gas contributions. (I'm assuming that you are a US citizen.)
And if Greenland bothers you, you should be totally steamed at Canada. Judged only by our greenhouse gas emissions, we're total bastards.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-07-17T085009Z_01_SP 243616_RTRUKOC_0_US-SERVICES-EMPLOYMENT-SKILLS.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13& amp;WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage3
I love the quote, "at this point in the economic recovery"
Actually there is a pool of skilled labor: the special visa programs, which will not hurt the wealthy in the US. It will kill insentives to help the not so wealthy go get training...except to man the military. As Gen. Buttler said: War is a Racket.
Read somewhere once that the typical yankee intinerant trader would sell the paint off his wagon. Today's yankee "traitors" are busy selling the wagon also.
The same people who are booster for this patriotic checkenhawk administration, will move equipment overseas for another buck.
I had neither the money nor the right color skin to become an engineer and I was reminded of this frequently. When I became self-employed almost a decade ago it was a huge relief to be in a situation where my pay depended on performance rather than race - race played a huge role in the size of my paycheck and promotions when I worked for someone else, and this is a univeral experience among non-affluent Americans.
I am now considering going into a machinist program at the local jr. college, because I'd like those skills for my business. I'm glad I can just pay for the classes and no involvement with the Politburo oops I mean Financial Aid will be required. This is definately blue-collar training, and I will hopefully end up able to do the one thing that's the forbidden fruit - make stuff. They used to train kids in this stuff, the basics anyway, at the high schools and "vo-tech" schools, but that's all dead now. It's easier to just import workers.
Will a severe recession or depression with it's large unemployment cause students to think more about working harder in school to make sure they can get a job when they get out of school?
You're right, the US has gone from a mostly working class and proud of it society to one where working with your hands is looked down on, and one where there's even been a sort of ugly caste system emerging. People born here who are Caucasian seem to want to just trade futures or shuffle paper, and important paper, like stocks or bonds or house deeds etc., to make a living. I was taught that any work was work, and something to be proud of, and yes in my working life I literally shoveled shit (hint: be sure to shower after that kind of job before showing up for night class, even if the shower makes you a few min. late) and done all kinds of low-level stuff. But most Americans who are not Depression kids didn't go through that kind of poverty, and have a very elitist view of work. The oil party has been just so darned good for everyone in this country! It's going to be very funny seeing all these hopeful future CEOs sweeping floors or weeding the corn I can tell you.
I'm of the white persuation, but I know what you mean. Had many jobs myself, including shoveling knee deep cow shit on a farm. The "Next Generation" of Star Trek kids are so removed from hands on work and empathy for those who do it.
My most frustrating moment came when one of my own kids threw garbage down on the floor at a motel room and said, "oh the maid will pick it up --she gets paid to do that". I was fuming. The kids of this generation do indeed believe themselves to be of the "rich and famous" upper caste and they do look down on those who, just because of less grace from God, are forced to perform menial jobs. It's very sad.
Sadder yet is that colleges are producing an over-supply of CEO wanna-be's. There aren't that many corporate ladders around so that everybody can be at the top of his own.
Let's hope we have enough corn to go around so that every college grad can shuck some in the post-PO era.
I was the friggin' maid, or rather, on lucky days, I helped my mom who was the real maid, when she could get the work, and felt like sharing, I got to help clean the rooms. There was talk of $1 per room but that never materialized - however I still did it when I could because people often left food in the fridges in the rooms.
In regard to police and armed forces, can you spell M-U-T-I-N-Y and P-I-R-A-T-E and B-A-N-D-I-T?
"We don't need no steenkin' badges!"
We never did answer Jon's question.
IMHO, the statistics are going the other way in America. More kids are dropping out of school with the understanding that studying harder and harder does not guarantee you any job. Not everyone is a scholastic genius.
I think what's happening is that there are a shortage of people willing to go through the effort and expense of getting an engineerig degree, in order to work for salaries that are being pressured downward by the Indians and Chinese. They may be making a mistake, as these may still end up being good jobs in a world where everyone's income is dropping. Just another way of saying we're all going to be working harder for less.
Welcome to the new American century!
I've worked on cars for fun and for family/friends since probably the age of 12. And I'm pretty good at it if I do say so myself. After I graduated with my degree, I got an engineering position with a large filtration corporation learning process controls etc. in their manufacturing facility , with the long term promise of managing and developing new production lines etc. Long story short, company gets bought out and production moved overseas, and I get laid off. I get 3 months severance pay, and commence looking for new job full time. 4 months later and still no decent opportunities at all, at least in my area. The rent is due, and my impending wedding is only months away with all kinds of catering etc. bills to be paid. So I went back to being a mechanic.
5 or 6 years later, and here I am, still working on cars. You know why? When I got laid off from the engineering job, I was making around 44k a year. Last year, working on cars at Carmax, I made just shy of 6 figures, and I get great benefits. I'm still embarassed when I run into old friends from college and they want to trade life stories, and I have to explain that I'm a "grease monkey". Even though I'm pretty sure I make more than alot of them do, they still give me the "Oh, gee, I'm so sorry look" when I tell them. I know I might be able to find a job now, since the defense industry has taken off again, but my skill sets and resume are going to look like crap at this point. Anyway, that's my story, I'm learning so much about the PO situation here, and really enjoy the high level of conversation on this site. Thanks!
Chris in MD
Will it be a long, slow, moderately painful decline where fuel is still reasonably available, albeit at a much higher price? Or will it be complete and utter chaos? If its the latter, then the career will be the last thing on the mind.
Ideally, I'd like to transition to a blend of engineering and mechanics, like working for an alternative energy research firm, building electric cars, trains, whatever...I already produce my own biodiesel in significant quantities and run my car and truck on it nearly exclusively. Maybe I'd like to get involved with a bio-fuels business if the opportunity presented itself, who knows?
The second point is a little more debatable, I know, because if TV executives perceived a demand for smarter programming they might be more likely to put it on. On the other.. by doing their best to eviscerate public TV and radio teh Republicans and their corporate contributors to the problem there as well.
About a third of the times I take a cab to the airport (usually O'Hare field, Chicago) I get a foreign born cabbie, who listens to the BBC on Sirius radio... which woudl seem to indicate that in other countries even the less formally educated actually learn, and care to learn when they can.
Social mobility means the ability to start out sweeping floors and end up an engineer through education. We're far behind England in this and England is no shining example herself - just looks golden next to the US.
I've read hobbyist electronics magazines from England and for such a small country, the amount and quality of hobbyists is incredible - you see, they have much more available regardless of race or money, education available there. And they tend to have free time - anyone remember that? Once upon a time people didn't work 60 hours a week, they worked 40 or so and had hobbies. And, losing it all, house etc in England doesn't mean living under a bridge, it means you get a place to stay and something called "the dole" which isn't the trial-by-fire getting help in the US is, and if you're normal at all, you get back on your feet and get on with your life.
I keep seeing this observation pop up, so I'll repeat it: the US has more in common with Argentina than with England or any country in Europe.
He accused me of ignoring "evidence", which so far has consisted of "lots of people told me this". My evidence has consisted of controlled DOE studies that show Don's above-mentioned Taurus actually gets 27 mpg on gasoline and 20 mpg on E85. This 26% drop in efficiency is consistent with all of the other studies I have seen looking at E85. In addition, in an earlier thread I pointed out that fuel efficiency statewide in Minnesota, a state with an ethanol mandate, is over 10% lower than the fuel efficiency statewide in Wisconsin, a state very similar demographically, but one without an ethanol mandate.
I know that Don is highly-respected on this board, but I take challenges to my credibility and integrity very seriously. I believe Don is dead wrong on this issue. I have given him scientific studies (which he has ignored) and he has accused me of ignoring his "facts", which appear to be nothing more than hearsay. You can see the exchange starting here. This is a very important issue to resolve, because if E85 did have superior fuel efficiency to gasoline, it would mitigate some of the EROI issues. So, let's get to the bottom of this claim.
In my opinion, Don owes me an apology for the charges he leveled against me, or he needs to present actual scientific evidence to back up his claims. I am not the one who has been guilty of ignoring facts because they don't fit preconceptions. Don seems to think that I simply want to believe that E85 gets worse gas mileage, despite the fact that my "belief" is based on scientific studies. Don seems to be the person engaged in wishful thinking here.
Cheers,
RR
However, I believe you owe ME an apology for your false accusation that I questioned your integrity.
In any case, I am genuinely sorry for any hurt feelings.
It has never been my intention to attack anybody's integrity.
You accused me of ignoring data that did not fit my preconceived notions. If I had actually done this, it would be an indication of questionable integrity. You accused me of "ducking an issue" that I have addressed on several occasions. You wrote "I do understand that these facts do not fit into your paradigm", as if I have some fixed paradigm. You again stated "I know that you are uncomfortable facing evidence that does not fit into your preconceptions". For me, those are all questions of integrity and credibility.
You will find that I am skeptical, but with an open-mind. Your accusations above would indicate that I have made up my mind, in spite of the "facts". Those are pretty serious accusations to hurl at a scientist or an engineer. My position is based upon nothing more than scientific data. You still have not provided any scientific data to back up your position. I am asking now for the 3rd time for you to present a scientific study showing improved gas mileage with E85, or admit that you just might be wrong about this claim.
Cheers,
RR
Pretty please with sugar on top, let us bury this silly hatchet.
I ALREADY admitted that I might be wrong--and did so explicitly and with no wiggle room. What puzzles me again is that you did see or understand (or accept????) this plain statement by me.
Nor have you accepted my apology.
Why not?
IMO this integrity issue is bogus. Now cleary you opinion differs. O.K., I'll leave it to others to umpire this issue.
Please readers, chime in with your take on our "debate"? Was I in any way shape form manner questioning RR's integrity?
To question premises, to question whether certain data are being taken account of, how on earth this can be misconstrued as questioning integrity is flat out beyond me.
Have you read the book that I cited? (FORBIDDEN FUEL: POWER ALCOHOL IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY)
It has an extensive bibliography of peer-reviewed articles.
I have read and understood most of them.
I see no evidence whatsoever that a certain other person has explored certain aspects of issues connected with ethanol. This statement in no way is intended to imply anything about anybody's integrity.
Please, let us have less heat and more light.
I NEVER MADE THAT ACCUSATION.
I have presented data.
It has been ignored or denied or ridiculed.
http://www.caranddriver.com/features/11174/tech-stuff-ethanol-promises-page7.html
Did I miss an open and visible fact based counter to that? If so, I humbly apologize.
Also, maybe not in one of "our" discussions, I think I've given this link to the EPA's studies on E85 mileage:
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/FFV2001.shtml
Which of those models did your friend have?
http://www.caranddriver.com/features/11174/tech-stuff-ethanol-promises-page7.html
This confirms the numbers I quoted to Don. I told him that the 2006 Taurus showed a 26% drop in efficiency on E85. In the link above, the Car and Driver tests showed an approximate 30% drop in fuel efficiency on E85 (testing a flex-fuel 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe).
Cheers,
RR
My auto will go faster than your car.
It is almost fourteen years old and has 217,000 miles on it. But, it is an Audi maintained by an Audi master mechanic whose wife's car it was. It has never failed to start, nor has it let me down in any way.
There is one problem however: At about half throttle it goes 110 m.p.h. The speedometer goes up to 170 m.p.h., and I have the "autobahn" chip in it instead of the U.S. nanny chip, but actually I don't think it will do much over 165. And anyway, I cannot afford perfomance tires.
As a science fiction writer, the thought has crossed my mind that under certain nasty scenarios it would be a good idea to have a very fast all-wheel drive car.
I paid $4,000 for tenderly used Audi about four years ago. Probably I could sell it for that same amount now.
Why some people always purchase new cars is something perhaps best left to the psychoanalysts in many cases.
Even if I had ten million dollars suddenly, I'd just pay the taxes on it, give the rest to The Nature Conservancy and keep my old car.
I'm tempted, however, to buy an old British motocycle (roughly a 1955) with a side car. Maybe a BSA, maybe a Royal Enfield or a Triumph or a Norton; they are all good machines I love and understand. (O.K., so they leak a little bit. Nobody is perfect.)
I love side-car outfits. Old engines I can understand and fix. New stuff has to go into the shop, and I can't identify some of the stuff on the engine and have no idea what it does. Then the mechanic explains what it is, and still I don't get it.
Let's go back to the 1950s keeping only what is good from new ideas, such as improved batteries and seat belts.
Also, 1949 was an excellent year for U.S. cars. Even GM cars were good back in those days. Indeed, I'd love to have the 1937 Buick my Dad drove: Headroom (because men used to wear hats), elbow room, hip room, real upholstery, running boards, two spare tires, a crank you could use if necessary, all steel--and it cost $800 new back when a dollar was not a peso.
Do we begin to see a pattern:
1937, Dad pays $800 for a fine car with radio with tubes.
1961, Sailorman buys new VW Beetle for $1,500, O.K. radio
1971, Sailorman buys new VW Squareback for $3,000, fine Blaupunkt sound
1977, Sailorman buys new Chevvy Imapala station wagon for $7,500. Crummy GM sound system including 8-track stereo
1992, Sailorman buys new Taurus station wagon for about $15,000-- fine Japanese (I think) radio and sound system.
I believe that car is still running with over 300,000 miles on it, but it is now out of the family.
1993 Somebody purchases a 1993 Audi for $47,000 plus tax. Truly great DVD player and radio. (That is my car now.)
though i am not sure on this.
It seems to me that you may be confused as to what I consider "data". I don't consider second hand accounts of what you were told by an auto mechanic "data". That is the kind of stuff you have presented. If E85 actually got better fuel efficiency, it would be a trivial matter to show this in a controlled test. Yet all of the controlled tests show just the opposite.
Cheers,
RR
I consider a reference to "Car and Driver" HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY questionable.
You have ignored it.
Why?
That's the same as saying "please do my work for me."
Now why do you not implement it and enhance your own education?
Ignorance is no disgrace and is 100% curable.
I love librarians. They find articles and books for me through Interlibrary Lending Service.
Librarians do it by the book. And they know where the books and journals are.
Frequently, you can get a limited number of articles from, "Science," etc. printed free--or at most for about five cents a page. Old articles are often available on microfilm.
Most useful knowledge is not recent.
Name some, and let's investigate. I doubt there is any aspect of ethanol that I haven't explored.
Cheers,
RR
Governmental mileage estimates often prove to be off by thirty percent--and sometimes much more in the real world.
BTW, an accusation of lack of integrity is almost always a variant of the ad hominem fallacy.
Call me a pervert, call me stupid, but please never accuse me of being guilty of so obvious a fallacy;-)
BTW, here's an idea for lonely country roads (like Oklahoma) where it's chronically windy. Take your plug-in hybrid and rig a sail. That'll get you your EPA gas mileage! (and a slow ride)
I haven't disputed that you could close some of the efficiency gap by increasing the compression ratio. That is well-known. What I dispute is Don's suggestion that any engines have actually been able to get better gas mileage on E85 than on gasoline. Even the Saab, optimized for ethanol, showed a 12.5% increase in fuel consumption when using ethanol. This means the fuel efficiency dropped by 12.5%, instead of 25-35% as would be expected from a straight BTU comparison.
In the link I provided in the other thread, the 2006 Taurus gets 27 mpg on gasoline, and 20 mpg on E85. It was the Taurus that Don said got better gas mileage on E85 than on gasoline, and I dispute that. I have seen at least 4 different studies, 2 by government organization and 2 by consumer groups, that reiterate my point. I have yet to see a study that shows what Don claims, and I am asking for some kind of study to back up his claim. If such a study existed, the ethanol lobby would be all over it.
Cheers,
RR
Could you please give the EXACT QUOTATION where you allege that I said that E-85 gives gallon for gallon better gas mileage than pure gasoline?
Thank you.
Sure thing. I quoted it above in my original post:
You wrote superior "both in terms of mileage and power".
Cheers,
RR
Robert, you may be unaware of the "verstehen" tradition in sociology as enunciated by the famous Max Weber.
I work in that tradition.
There is no special reason you should be aware of it.
Note: I know a little bit about physics, chemistry, and engineering. Not much, just a little.
How much do you know of sociology, economics, and the history of ideas?
Where are your peer-reviewed studies.
All I see is hand waving and no science whatsoever.
Are you opposing whole method and discussion here now? We can't graph, chart, compare, reference, crosscheck?
All we can do if freaking pretend to have a document at our elbow that supports our position?
Please explain why Indy 500 race cars are switching to ethanol to get better race perfomance. As you are doubtless aware, racing cars are severely weight constrained.
I have been told (and I know that this is not "evidence") that ethanol runs cooler and more reliably than gasoline under extreme conditions. In other words, with ethanol you are less likely (all other things being equal) to blow an engine than with gasoline. I have also been told (again, no claim to evidence here) that ethanol-fueled cars are not only more reliable, they are also faster than gasoline cars, other things remaining the same.
Never forget ceteris paribus;-)
I think others have adequately covered this.
I have been told (and I know that this is not "evidence") that ethanol runs cooler and more reliably than gasoline under extreme conditions. In other words, with ethanol you are less likely (all other things being equal) to blow an engine than with gasoline. I have also been told (again, no claim to evidence here) that ethanol-fueled cars are not only more reliable, they are also faster than gasoline cars, other things remaining the same.
Not only are these anecdotal claims, but they have nothing to do with fuel efficiency. That is the issue that sent us down this path. I long ago concluded that there are certain performance improvements associated with using ethanol. Is it worth the drop in fuel efficiency? When we are running out of oil, my ethanol ration may only be 2 gallons a week, but just think of how fast I can accelerate from 0 to 60. :)
Cheers,
RR
Engines that run cooler and are less prone to failure.
Winning races.
None of this is relevant?
Please.
Engines that run cooler and are less prone to failure isn't the discussion either...energy content in a gallon of ethanol vs a gallon of 87 Octane Gas.
Winning races isn't the discussion...energy content in a gallon of ethanol vs a gallon of 87 Octane Gas.
No none of the above is relevant.
You're welcome.
For what it's worth, I think RR is right and you are wrong.
While you did not come right out and state that he lacked integrity, I think you implied, quite strongly at times, that he was highly biased, stuck on a particular paradigm, and had an agenda he was pushing without regard for the facts. You kept accusing him of ignoring the evidence, but you didn't present any real evidence yourself. I'm not saying you did this maliciously, but you did it nonetheless. No big deal.
As an aside, I think some clarification is needed on this octane issue. The octane rating of a gasoline is merely an indication of how well the fuel resists pre-ignition. It is NOT a measure in any way of the energy content of the fuel.
Higher compression engines need higher octane gasoline to avoid pre-ignition. However, this was far more important in the era of carburetors than it is now, where sophisticated computerized engine fuel management systems can automaticaly adjust ignition timing, fuel richness, etc. to optimize performance with the specific fuel being used.
It is generally true that the performance of a high-revving, high-output, high-compression engine will suffer when a lower octane fuel is used. However, a garden-variety moderate-compression engine does not necessarily benefit from going to a high octane fuel (perhaps at full-bore maximum load, but not under normal driving conditions). If the engine can burn the fuel without pre-ignition, then the octane is sufficient for that engine.
The only reason that alcohol is used in some racing engines is that some of these engines have compression ratios as high as 14:1, which would make even 100 octane gas cause destructive pre-ignition. It is NOT because the alcohol has a higher energy or delivers better mileage. All things being equal, a race car on alcohol will have worse mileage than an equivalant car on gasoline. The use of alcohol is merely an expedient.
One other thing: how in hell's name is a group of auto mechanics and car salesman going to be in position to determine what kind gas mileage their customers get? By asking them? If so, how many people collect accurate, scientifically valid gas mileage data? If someone answers, "Oh, pretty good," or "Lousy" does that count in your book as "data?" No, the only way you can make a valid comparison of fuel economy is to run the same car on the two fuels under identical driving conditions and load application, and to do this for several runs and then average the results.
Gas mileage can be a pretty slippery thing, which is why the stated EPA fuel economy figures for a particular car often bear little relation to reality. They are more useful in comparing one car against another rather than being an actual predictor of what you will get.
In closing: Don, RR ..... play nice!
Don, I apologize if I came on strong. My wife calls this "Creationist attack mode". It comes from years of battling Creationists on the boards, and I tend to move in for the kill in a relentless manner. Occasionally I find myself doing this to my wife, and she hates it. As Odograph mentioned, I would much rather get back to debating the factual issues. However, I still want to address a couple of things you wrote:
I confess I did not see this. The admission that I saw was this:
That is neither explicit, nor without wiggle room. It is a sarcastic way of saying that I am actually wrong, without coming up with any data to show that I am wrong.
Don, I accept your apology. However, I do hope my position is clear. I have no problems with anyone attacking any of my arguments. I can defend those just fine, and it is always possible that I will see data that will cause me to change my position. But that was not the issue here. You did not attack a premise of mine. You said that I had ignored data and dodged an argument. It was that to which I took strong exception.
I would not mistake the questioning of premises with a challenge of integrity. I think you are still confused about the issue that had me annoyed. I think just about anyone on this board, if they were accused of ducking an argument and ignoring data - especially when they had not done so - would be annoyed. That has nothing to do with challenging premises.
Now, I have said my piece. Let's get back to the debate, because this is very important. I contend that E85 will drop fuel efficiency, and I can point to many published studies that prove this. You have claimed superior mileage with the flex-fuel Taurus. Show me the study, since I have shown you the study that shows otherwise. And please tell me which of my premises you question.
Cheers,
RR
This brings up another issue with Ethanol. Unlike gasoline and diesel water can mix with water as well as other substances causing corrosion. A unscruplous fuel dealer could also sell customers watered down ethanol.
Cheers,
RR