DrumBeat: July 25, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 25, 2006 - 9:20am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Update [2006-7-25 11:43:28 by Stuart Staniford]:
Crown Prince Abdullah on the consequences of not having a ceasefire in Lebanon:
Saudi Arabia warns everybody that if the peace option fails because of Israeli arrogance, there will be no other option but war.
I am completely for equality in every respect for men and women, as long as my wife stays OUT of MY kitchen!
A woodstove will be installed shortly, which will for a large part will be filled by wreckage
Holiday to the sun cancelled, will instead be spend at the local beach.
Westexas, how does an independent energy consultant implement ELP?
As Maximus (in the movie "Gladiator"), said, "Imagine it and will be so."
Assume:
(1) Your income is down by at least 50%;
(2) Energy (and food) prices are up by at least 100%
What actions would you then take regarding your lifestyle?
My recommendation is that you try to become, or work for, a provider of essential goods and services. It sounds to me like you doing quite well.
Very well put! I shall save that bit of advice, and use it on people who are just waking up.
No seat to contend with at all.
The consensus at the Oil Drum is that we will rationally move to a sustainable society with help of our great scientific (and social?) knowledge. However, my opinion is that a change to a sustainable society can only be accomplished by completely abolishing our current money system. Either by a collapse of the system that was bound to happen anyway or because people choose (or are forced) to switch to local currencies, where money is a utility and is not used as a store of value. (there would actually be a discount on keeping money in your possession, so it makes more sense to invest it in something that would provide a future return).
Our current money system discounts future supplies and leads to ever increasing competition where the natural escalation is war.
For an excellent introduction see:
http://www.transaction.net/press/interviews/lietaer0497.html
http://www.startupjunkies.org/TheEarthPlus5Percent.pdf
A change in the money system is not going to happen voluntarily. Anybody want to float ideas on how to make it happen?
I posted a link in a Drumbeat past to a St Louis Fed Report by Lawrence Kutlikoff you may be interested in.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf
I think the price of oil will be impacted by the supply/ demand components that are discussed at TOD and that declines in the value of the US$ will exacerbate those negative effects.
One mans opinion, I don't have any debate killing information or resources to prove my point.
I also don't feel that I can impact fiscal or monetary policy on a macro scale. However, I believe I can do things on a personal level to reduce the potential negative impacts of peak oil and current fiscal policy on my family though.
My micro focus will not help you make changes at the national policy level but I wish you the best of luck.
Industrial society is neolithic on steroids, but not fundamentally different.
If humanity is to survive, we need a completely new paradigm. There is a lot of speculation about that, but truly, it is hard to fathom what such a thing would really look like, given the apparent hard-wired human needs for novelty and acquisitiveness.
As in North America, the arrival of humans in Australia was suspiciously coincidental to extintion of most large land mammals. So possibly they were not sustainable at first, but later arrived at an ecological equilibrium.
Another possible sustainable candidate is Japan, 1603-1867 (Edo Period).
The population remained almost steady at around 30 million for over 250 years.
Wet rice agriculture, soy beans and fishing were the staple means of survival. There was no immigration/emmigration, very little overseas trade, no wars and no epidemics. One could argue that with this population density, deforestation was bound to occur long term, a la Europe. But most of Japan is steep mountains, with much of the population residing in narrow flatish strips. Thus the forests survived in the mountains. Abundant rainfall and a temperate climate also meant the biomass could keep up to a greater extent.
Sustainability surely depends on whether the population can be supported long-term without depleting resources, and on how the society chooses to exploit or protect the resources available to it.
France has lots of railways using all electric trains, 80% nuclear, 19% Hydro.
I really don' see a big problem with peak oil. Global warming is the bigger threat and we know who is mostly to blame.
cheers
I have never been to Europe, so I have a question. I was reading this A/C article that states that American vehicles burn more energy for A/C alone than all of Indonesia [pop 240 million] uses in its energy entirety. This 7 billion gallons of gas for A/C is probably due to the fact that it is nearly impossible to buy a vehicle without factory installed A/C.
Do most European cars come without factory A/C? Is it a European mandate by the Govts? Or is it because European fuel costs are already so high that most consumers prefer a vehicle without A/C to self-limit total car usage?
It would seem obvious as gas prices rise to eliminate A/C in cars. This reduces the car's intial cost and weight, and simplifies future maintenance, besides increasing the gas mileage. But most importantly, if no A/C was installed-- people would not be so inclined to drive needlessly wasting fuel. It would also encourage more people to use A/C mass-transit versus sweating in stalled traffic jams.
The Asphalt Wonderland, here in AZ, is the king of A/C and dark tinted windows--if A/C vehicles were abolished, I bet population would drop 15% in the first year alone. If most Phoenicians had their windows down they would also be much more likely to see and hear motorcycles and scooters versus having the windows shut tight to ease their ability to ceaselessly yap on their cellphones.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
It is no mandate, I have been to Europe 3 times and although I haven't been in many cars the ones I have been in at keast had A/C. Generally, it's not needed, although there are probably a lot more cars there that are simply not equipped with it. I saw a lot of people driving around Paris with their windows open. The big difference is simply their cars are all smaller. I saw many American and Japanese cars that you cannot buy here in the states. I assume that they think there is no market for them.
cheers
In France it becomes now virtually impossible to buy a car without A/C. Even the cheapest new car has A/C at least as an option. And most models are delivered with standard A/C.
As for diesel cars, the cars are more expensive but it is the fuel that has less taxes than gasoline.
todays prices :
gasoline : 6.15 $/gal
diesel : 5.29 $/gal
with a dollar at 1.26 euros
I don't have a car, but from looking around I can not conclude A/C is standard here in Holland. Ofcourse new cars more and more have it, but it's most times offered as an option. At least half of the year our average temperature does not require A/C too.
General public fuel price discussions blame taxes and Shell. "They did it, and we cannot but pay".
The typical beach days we have so much now in july lead to huge traffic jams. On some of these 'sundays' people spend more time in their car then on the beach (voluntary traffic!) I can imagine the extra cost for A/C is easily paid for and we'll have a second ice cream too. Our road services report most of the car problems they have to fix relate to (engine)cooling. But see what fun we have!
All the hospitals specialized in burning wounds make overhours. We're about to close our first electricity plant because the cooling water gets to hot.
Last night on the news it was said electro-technical installers make record business installing home A/Cs in our current month with record temps. As does this entrepreneur importing thermo-cooling-blankets from the US to keep pets cool :)
We're just to confused by this unprecendented heat to worry about it's root causes. In general I think the dire consequences of increased A/C use are easily forgotten in the comfort of cool air...
Keep sweating!
"Here people work only 35 hours a week with a minimum of 6 weeks paid holiday per year, plus 14 public holidays which become 4 day week-ends whenever they land on Tuesday or Thursday."
"I really don' see a big problem with peak oil. "
You probably do not see the problem because you are Naive. And your Ignorance makes you complacent. Like a two year-old child, you seem to believe your government will just keep supplying you with Nipplez and, if not, why all you have to do is "Protest!"
By the way, how goes it in your suburbs this year?
I dont think the French are naive at all. I think they are quite canny. They put French interests first, they have rejected the anglo-american business model of 'work till you drop then get fired'. They protect farmers (this will be useful in localised agriculture). They are highly literate and still produce good engineers and scientists and protect core industries.
They have 80% nuke power, high potential for hydro / tidal and an independent nuclear deterrent.
Right now, if Britain wants to 'nuke up' we will need to import nuke technology, engineers and scientists. Preferably from France since I no longer trust America to act in our interests. Right now, you are busy arresting UK Business men for 'crimes' that are not even crimes in the UK. Your Congress has not even ratified the extradition treaty ('fraid of the Irish caucus when we want our Irish terrorists back for a 'quiet chat'). But poodle Blair wont lift a finger. Chirac would just tell you to sod off over any Frenchmen being extradited.
BTW: We have to get a replacement for our Trident Nukes...
...Not sure the good ole US of A can be trusted not to put in switch - off codes, should they ever need to fly...
Perhaps we should buy French next time. I understand they are slimmer, more stylish and pack an elegant level of va-va-voom.
The French have good food, good wine, a good climate, and they dont give a dingos kidneys about the US/Anglo model, WTO or anything that gets in the way of the way they want to live.
OMG...I am defending the French...
Perhaps what pi**es you off is that these 'cheese eating surrender monkeys' gave your boss-man the finger over Iraq.
Looks like they were right eh?
We will see, in the fullness of time, if their model is better post peak oil.
The only fly in the ointment is water resources on the Mediterranean littoral and in Deep France. That's probably because lots of English have decided to go and live there.
I wonder why...
Water shortages are a big problem everywhere, and could possibly be behind the Israeli push to control the geography in the Litani river drainage basin in Lebanon. If there is ever any justification to going to war, battling for water to survive would be a primary incentive.
Importing a ton of grain is equal to importing a 1,000 tons of water. If world grains shortages are developing, it would be in a country's strategic interest to grab more water. Consider these links:
http://www.arij.org/pub/corissues/
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1654
----------------
Jordan is importing some 91 percent of its grain, Israel 87 percent, Libya 85 percent, Saudi Arabia 50 percent, and Egypt 40 percent.
"As water shortages continue to mount, it is dangerous to presume, as many officials do, that there will be enough exportable grain to meet the import needs of all water-short countries at a price they can afford," said Postel
---------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
This is totally untrue. Public transit (just like nuclear stations) has very high fixed costs because of the massive investments needed to be pyed for in advances and maintained after. COmpared to those the marginal costs per passenger are negligable. If a bus full or half-full the costs for the bus trip are the same - driver salary, diesel etc. As a result mass transit makes sense only when it is really "mass" - that is where people don't prefer cars - in densely populated cities, high gas prices etc. Actually almost the whole world outside US is like that.
while each rider does increass revenue it also increases weight of the bus, fuel used to move the bus, strain on the bus's axels. while statisticly more fuel efficent when a bus is fully loaded(more people to devide the finite tank volume with)
so basicly the people who run the busses have two choices.
- increass fares to cover the new costs which result in less people riding and thus we are back square one.
- buy more busses which again results in higher costs because it allows more people to ride. this brings us to point one.
public transport will fail, it's only a matter of time. if we let the market handle it like so many people are fond of it will fall flat on it's face faster then if the government subsidizes it's entire cost.FWIW most european capitals have mass transits which have been operational for more than a century and none of them has collapsed by now. With gas prices going to the sky it will soon become obvious that this long-term investment has been worthed.
BTW French nukes target the USA. A deal was reached some 10 years ago that the communist party, the last Stalinist party in Europe, would only join the Government if the Soviet Union was not the only target.
The suburbs are quiet right now. It's holiday time. Come autumn we expect the usual rituals of car burnings and attcks on the police. Just a normal part of the culture that causes little local excitement.
Interesting thought. You should come to Japan, explain your idea to the people taking the commute in Shibuya. You can make a lot of money.
I would guess that if a lot of people use public transport, it would get cheaper. But I guess thats just an old hippie dream?
How does Saudi do this with four times the population an
the great desert within which they live? I know
that they are much bigger but have no water? Desalination?
My guess is that the data is old. From this IECA article: it says that Saudia Arabia imports over 70% of its grains. The CIA Factbook for SA says:
-----------------------------------
Environment - current issues:
desertification; depletion of underground water resources; the lack of perennial rivers or permanent water bodies has prompted the development of extensive seawater desalination facilities; coastal pollution from oil spills.
-------------------------------------
Hopes this helps clear up the issue for you.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I could not care less that the French Mooned Bush over Iraq (I doubt many people noticed or cared what the French position was except their Islamic Population), or where they buy their subs, or who they will look to for protection in the next war, etc, etc...
The Socialist French have been conditioned to rely on Government to provide for everything including jobs with multiple weeks of paid holidays etc ... They have become a Nation of Nipple Seekers (a growing problem here in the United States as well - just read the whimpers of the bewildered 'victims' of the power outages in St. Louis and elsewhere.)
They and the majority of other First Worlder's like them will be very surprised as the symptoms of Peak Oil overwhelm their pansy political and economic systems.
Of course at that TimezUP, the calm, complacent tone of the French poster child above will be long gone and replaced by the Angry, Protesting, Irrational and Very Skeered Nipple Seeker looking for a scapegoat to be punished... see the Recent History of the French Domestic Legion (a.k.a. Nipple-Seekers Brigade) in Action Protesting any change to their beloved Welfare State:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4865034.stm
Vive La France
"The Socialist French have been conditioned to rely on Government to provide for everything ..." - now including, according to you, free wine with meals for the homeless etc, etc
My whole point is people must stop depending on their government for everything. If you depend on your government you will regret it because the governments will Not Solve this problem (they are stupid humans too).
The LESS dependence on government the better = become as energy (and food) self-sufficient as possible or SUFFER with the Mass Herd of Saps who sat around waiting for the Godz of Politics and Technology to show up.
Here, at this point in History we can AFFORD to be humane and generous. This is PEAK Energy and Matter - this is the Time of Plenty.
But all those nice Luxuries like "Human Dignity" will be quickly tossed aside when the cities can't Afford To Pay for indigents let alone the actual working peoples.
This is not matter of Choice - we would all love to have a world of plenty forever. But that will not be the case.
By the way, how goes the Tent Cities of Homeless springing up all over Paris - tolerance of the homeless depends on how visible they are, or how inconvenient they become ... love those desperate poor moozlimz in the suburbs until they "protest" and start burning those suburbs...
Dream your dream as long as you want but when you wake up to the nightmare that is coming you will understand that all your morals and ethics were easy to adhere to During The Time of Plenty... too bad the Time of Plenty is rapidly drawing to a close.