DrumBeat: July 30, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 30, 2006 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The Chicago Tribune special report on peak oil appeared as a pull-out supplement in today's paper. It's reportedly huge, with tons of graphics. Really an unusual amount of ink to devote to a single subject. And right behind the front page, too.
Is the world running out of oil?Wow.The prospect seems unthinkable--mostly because the consequences, if true, would be unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would tip the world into a generations-long economic depression. Millions would lose their jobs as industry implodes. Farm tractors would be idled for lack of fuel, triggering massive famines. Energy wars would flare. And car-less suburbanites would trudge to their nearest big-box stores--not to buy Chinese-made clothing transported cheaply across the globe, but to scavenge glass and copper wire from abandoned buildings.
[editor's note, by Prof. Goose] Heatwave shuts down nuclear power plants.
[editor's note, by Prof. Goose] NIMBYism alive and well regarding wind farms, and not just with Robert Kennedy!
Oil boom puts stress on water supply
Water is a major concern throughout Alberta. Three years of drought, along with a population boom that is stretching water supplies to the limit, prompted the provincial government to unveil a water strategy in 2003. It considers the growing demand for water by industry and people, and factors such as water pollution and drought.Scientists David Schindler and Bill Donahue's recent research shows the amount of water flowing through the Athabasca River has declined 33 per cent since 1970, due to a combination of human and industrial activity and climate change. Other Prairie rivers have suffered similar, and sometimes much more dramatic, declines.
...This increased scrutiny of the oilpatch's water use has made the industry nervous. Boutilier says the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers recently asked him, "Why are you picking on us? What about agriculture?"
High energy prices compelling Americans to care about climate
Matthew Simmons is still predicting $200 oil:
"And we shouldn't give the companies any credit for their performance," he said. "It doesn't have anything to do with them."Moreover, he said the industry's profits could reach a whole other order of magnitude within the next few years. "I wouldn't be surprised if oil reached $200 a barrel by 2010," Simmons said.
Where will big oil's big profits go?
Democrats propose major energy independence bill
High gas prices not entirely due to oil prices
The portion of gas prices tied to refining has ballooned on its own, apart from oil.The suspicion of frustrated drivers is correct: After upward spikes, the price of gasoline drops back more slowly than the price of oil — and someone pockets the difference.
She can't pay her rent, but she still drives a Suburban that gets 10 mpg.
Btw, this was a great article and punched a hole in the oil companies contention that you can't trace the ultimate source of fungible oil from the gas station all the way back to Nigeria, Texas, Saudi Arabia, whatever.
But what I really liked were the personal stories, about how people all over the globe are impacted by this magic elixir we call oil. Cause of so much convenience, sustenance, and pleasure, but all the center of so much pain, corruption, war, and death. A Faustian bargain, for sure.
And, oh yeh, loved the one about the wealthy suburbanite, real estate lady who had to have that Hummer to impress her clients. Around here, our real estate lady drives a Prius. Now that is impressive!
"Day by day and almost minute by minute the past was brought up to date. In this way every prediction made by the Party could be shown by documentary evidence to have been correct; nor was any item of news, or any expression of opinion, which conflicted with the needs of the moment, ever allowed to remain on record. All history was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary."
- G. Orwell, 1984
It's about time. Oh, the heatwave caused a NG spike. $8.10/million BTUs.
Would you spend 1/4 of your salary to get to work?
I wonder how much people's variable sense of 'security' (ie, the security of a Suburban) is going to be compatible with one of the next steps, carpooling. I see the 'big car, big house, big yards, gated community' movement as part of a mentality in the US that sees Success and Security in Isolation. I don't think we're homogeneously antisocial by any means, but many people have grown very accustomed to the 'freedom' of not having to coordinate our efforts, deal with quirky neighbors, adjust our needs within a group for the sake of economizing.. Rusty old tools to start to sharpen up again.
My family built a passive solar house out in the Maine woods in 1980 with a lot of images of independence and being less dependent on many things 'mainstream', but it quickly became clear that the facet that was left incomplete was the lack of friendly neighbors and the amount of 'energy' available when multiple families are available to each other to do big lifts, watch kids, etc.
Bob Fiske
The car is in better shape than the house!
The car is longer than the house!
Makes the statues on Easter Island look sensible
What kind of business?
Mobile Whorehouse?
Still a scary picture.
I was thinking about her defensive comment about her Chevy Suburban, something like "small cars scare me" and her decision to replace it with a Mustang. Seems to me that conservatives who oppose increasing fuel efficiency in automobiles have used the 'smaller car = deathtrap' argument again and again. Perhaps this has influenced her thinking (and others) and has actually made many people afraid of smaller cars. Just a thought.
It hasn't been without a grain of truth. Small cars designed for putting around on 20-30 MPH streets didn't do so sell when put on 60MPH American streets, or against American land yachts piloted by ppl used to casually ricocheting off of each other's tanks at times. The makers of imports at first didn't have any idea of how many sheer hours Americans spend in their cars, the speeds they drive them, and in what kinds of weather. Now, the import makers all have test facilities out in places like the Mohave desert, far North, and have more of their people over here living the American life and driving the American way.
That the American makers' tries at small cars were horrible (like the Pinto) didn't help either.
The "small cars are deathtraps" meme is very strong in the US, remember it was being used to sell SUVs up until very recently.
The makers of imports at first didn't have any idea of how many sheer hours Americans spend in their cars, the speeds they drive them, and in what kinds of weather.
* I think we established yesterday that Americans don't drive substantially more miles per year total than Europeans or Australians (maybe on 1 road trip per year) [Isn't the whole premise of the PHEV that most Americans only drive an average of 30 miles per day????]
* Germans drive way faster than Americans... for many years your legal limits were quite prohibitive in most states...
* What... you have some kind of unique weather in USA that they don't have in Northern or Southern Europe??
Small cars designed for putting around on 20-30 MPH streets didn't do so well when put on 60 MPH American streets
Where exactly are these 20-30 mph streets... and where are the American 60mph STREETS?? Urban speed limits are similar everywhere... as are highway limits
This idea of unique car markets really cracks me up every time I read such car industry nonsense... I remember in Australia... a certain model wasn't allowed to be imported until it had been modified for our "type of roads"... as if they have different kinds of corners/bends... or different kinds of potholes?? Or is it because the cars drive upside down??
Maybe you can show me where Europeans are spending 4 hours a day commuting back and forth as most of the population of Southern California does. Maybe you can show me where Europeans are commuting for hours (at a very slow speed) in 110F or higher temperatures as they do in Phoenix and a fair amount of other Sunbelt cities in the US. Maybe you can show me where Europeans are all getting out onto the roads when they're iced-over and in snowstorms, instead of just staying home, or taking the train. The "winter madness" is pretty common in snowy areas in the US, and smart (although not smart enough to stay out of it!) Americans in these areas keep some survival gear and food/water in their cars in case they have to spend the night in a snowdrift. By God they're gonna drive! Whether hot, cold, rainy, etc., no matter how huge the traffic jam, driving is taken to be an unquestioned, holy duty in this country.
I guess if you can prove it's the same in Europe, my doomerosity has to get adjusted upward at least a couple of points.
When I landed in San Francisco and drove over the Bay Bridge the first time I was scared out of my mind going 55 mph with all the other traffic.
There was a story on NPR a few weeks ago about the drawbacks of Volkswagens sold in the U.S. In spite of feedback from U.S. sales executives, German engineers refused to design in common American things like cupholders. They cited the German lack of understanding of how much time we spend in our cars in the U.S.
Is there a way to ammend/edit my comments?
"A nationwide Quinnipiac University survey in May found that 63 percent of registered voters blamed oil companies for high gasoline prices, while 43 percent blamed oil-producing countries, 35 percent blamed President Bush, and 30 percent blamed normal supply and demand pressures. Many fewer, 19 percent, laid responsibility on "Americans who drive vehicles that use a lot of gasoline.""
It is so much easier to know you are getting screwed than to know who is screwing you. Or whether the victim is in fact to blame.
It's what we sapiens do.
Love to toss that poo.
Aren't there any jobs at gas stations in Lockport or apartments near her job?
This same argument is evidenced in the, "look at what that poor person bought instead of food" argument.
The blame always goes to the individual rather than the society and its defective insane system of living.
Try a thought experiment: Imagine that everyone in the United States all tried to move to within one mile of work.
There -- didn't that hurt your brain a little bit? Especially since the entire American way of life has been tailored to fit the automobile and its needs and not the needs of the people.
Telling the homeless to get a job in this hateful country is like telling a paraplegic to just get up and walk.
If you ain't got enough legs or jobs, neither is going to happen.
We are so going down.
Yeah, and what's the timeframe? Everyone move in the next year? Not going to happen. Everyone move in the next 20 years? Hard, but could be done. Everyone move within the next 40 years? It won't be pleasant, but it will happen. 60 years? Not really a problem at all.
It all goes back to how fast production falls off, how resistant people will be to change (I suspect we're going to be hit by many life-changing problems at once, which may "encourage" them to change their lifestyle), and how badly people in other parts of the world want the goodies too.
I actually mostly agree with Cherenkov's gloomy assessment, but not because we couldn't move everyone close enough quickly enough, but rather because people will go broke defending their current lifestyle before they are willing to consider drastic changes.
I wonder how many families a walmart can support?
We are probably going to see lots of deserted home similar to the desolated Detroit suburbs during the GM layoffs.
How will real estate agents deal with this problem? More signs!
Then you move the water to India.
Anyone whose job can be done 'from home' are having his/her job done from India and other remote centers.
Be careful what you wish for. Telecommuting works real well from places where people are hungry and paid a whole lot less than us locals. At the speed of light, India ain't so far away...
Indian programmers can afford to work cheaper becuse their college is cheaper or they come from the small minority of well-off parents. An American kid can't compete with that becuse college simply costs too much. If I had a kid and was paying for his college I'd give him a graduation preasant of a passport and one-way ticket to Bangalore