DrumBeat: August 1, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 08/01/06 at 9:32 AM EDT]

Tropical Storm Chris heads toward the Gulf:

Scorching temperatures send natural gas futures to three-month high


Drivers try another gas to save gasoline. People are filling their tires with nitrogen to improve gas mileage. I guess buying a smaller car is out of the question...


From Military.com: Withdraw or Stand Firm?

So how do we get of Iraq with our dignity and not have a costly energy crisis?

In the short term, we can't. In the long term, America is the Saudi Arabia of coal. Technologies are already proven for making coal into synthetic gas and liquid fuel, and when crude oil runs low enough that it becomes unduly expensive, we'll put this technology in the field and become a net exporter of fuel to the world. That's two decades in the future, however.

In the meantime, we'd better get to work drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Slope of Alaska and ramping up production, with apologies to the environmentalists.

Or we can continue to get shot at in the streets of Baghdad.


Bangladesh: Power outages protested


People formed a two-kilometre human chain in Gaibandha protesting frequent power outages.


U.K.: Single households 'waste energy'

Efforts to get households to reduce energy use are being hampered by the appliance and gadget-packed homes of single men, research suggests.
The suggested solution? An "occupancy tax" to discourage people from living alone.
I disagree that we can, or should,  ramp up production of US fossil fuels enough to make a difference, but this is a very interesting opinion piece by a retired naval officer at www.military.com.

http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,107939,00.htm
Withdraw or Stand Firm?
Michael DiMercurio | August 01, 2006

"So how do we get of Iraq with our dignity and not have a costly energy crisis?"

Great minds think alike.  Leanan and I simultaneously posted the military.com story.
Death (to others) before conservation is apparently the credo we're going by these days. The invasion has turned out to be a fiasco and, more to he point, it pissed away resources that could have gone elsewhere. What a waste.
hey, someone's gotta die.  Might as well not be us.

(tongue firmly in cheek...)

Prof. Goose, your tongue may be stuck in your cheek - and I realise this is not a problem of your making - but if the US and Canada start to use their food surplusses that have enabled the world population to expand - to instead make bio-fuel to maintain a life style instead of life - is it not the case that starvation will be brought forward in whatever countries currently benefit from US food supplies?  I gather China is fairly high up that list.  Bio-alchol or food?
someone's gotta die.

EXACTLY RIGHT. In a population in overshoot, many individual organisms  must die. And humans on Earth are most certainly in overshoot. How do we decide who dies? Obviously, there's no easy answer if you want to be "humane." But there is one easy answer: NOT ME!

(and I'm dead serious, no tongue in cheek here. they can and will die, I'll hang on as long as I can.)

The "time of plenty" for the US and its partners in crime is coming to an end...

"The total amount of suffering per year in the natural world is beyond all decent contemplation. During the minute it takes me to compose this sentence, thousands of animals are being eaten alive; others are running for their lives, whimpering with fear; others are being slowly devoured from within by rasping parasites; thousands of all kinds are dying of starvation, thirst and disease. It must be so. If there is ever a time of plenty this very fact will automatically lead to an increase in population until the natural state of starvation and misery is restored."
~ Richard Dawkins: River Out of Eden, page131-132.

==AC

Richard Dawkins has always seemed such a reasonable fellow, I knew he must have said something reasonable sometime. well found AC :-)
It is impossible to avoid the feeling that Malthus is 100% certain to win the game eventually. It is like playing against a crooked house.
Well yes, but taking a broader view the second law will be the ultimate winner.

Being aware of peak oil has really made me face up to my own mortality, indeed to the mortality of everything around us. It makes it hard for me to keep ignoring the deeper questions about existence and its meaning.

"This too, shall pass".

The "time of plenty" for the US and its partners in crime is coming to an end...

Yet another meaningless emotional response!

"partners in crime" : this is the evolutionary selected cheater detection mechanism at work.
Assuming an entirely egalitarian worldwide society (same income for EVERYONE) the problems of Peak Oil would be JUST AS BAD!

Cut the bullshit!

It is the GROWTH and total population which matters.

I do wonder whether China in the near future will declare a vital interest in American agricultural output. That should make for interesting times.
In the meantime, we'd better get to work drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Slope of Alaska and ramping up production, with apologies to the environmentalists.

Don't apologize to me, apologize to your children. The war against nature is in reality a war of humans against humans: today's generation against all future generations. Our generation is winning big, but only by destroying humanity's life-support systems--clean water, clean air, and food production.

In the big scheme, the Iraq war is insignificant. The question is: "WHERE ARE THE REAL BATTLES?" The actual frontlines are right here in America, all around you: suburban sprawl, petrochemical factories, nuclear + coal power plants, industrial agriculture, and most importantly, the logging/drilling/mining of the few remaining intact ecosystems. Our victory is nearly complete. Soon it will be total, and all future humans can "thrive" in this toxic wasteland we have created for their enjoyment.

Crazypat, this is the point I have been making for years. We are competing for territory, food and resources with every other species on earth, and we are winning! We are killing off them boogers like there is no tomorrow. There are fewer other great apes on earth, about 200,000, than the human population numbers grow in a single day. Soon there will be none. Soon there will be no forest because we will have cut it all down to grow biofuels.

Soon our victory will be complete. We will have killed off every other species on earth except the rats and vermin that co-exist with us humans. Soon we will have a brown cursted earth all to ourselves. Then we can celebrate.

I guess....

PARTY DOWN! WE WIN!

yep, not much to celebrate, is there?

I was brushing up on my evolution last night. It's fascinating how the in the last stages of human evolution, the successor species exterminated its still-living ancestor species.

Also, I love how we are the most successful predator of all time. WE CAN EAT ROCKS!!! Literally! And like all extremely successful species, we will be destroyed by our own success. It is the natural order of things: an organism always modifies its environment just by existing, and its excretions are autotoxic. We can dominate, but not control.

Industrial civilization is as doomed as yeast in a wine cask.

The burning question on my mind is this:
Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?
Will nuclear armageddon do it? Persistent bio-accumulating organic toxins? Radical climate changes? I am still undecided, but I'm studying up on molecular biology. I'm sure we'll manage to cause another mass extinction--but I don't think we can actually destroy all life. Prokaryotes are some damn hardy organisms.

"Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?"

Yes, but probably with great difficulty as well as great(seemingly innate) stupidity.

Life is pretty resilient and could always re-evolve, though wasting a few million or hundreds of millions of years may be sad. I did a first pass of collapse levels a few years back:
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/01/levels-of-collapse-warning-may-be.html

Being humans we are more interested in our own and our economic systems survival, I have bad news: lots die and the economic systems break.

"Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?"

Naahhh...the cockroaches will always survive.  Heck, you can microwave those critters and they just laugh at you.

"Do humans have the power to destroy ALL life on earth?"

Not a chance.  There are creatures that require temperatures close to the boiling point of water in order to survive. They prefer temperatures above boiling. Some of the latest thinking is that they are very closely related to the first life forms on earth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperthermophiles

from the wikipedia article
The most hardy hyperthermophiles thus known live on the superheated walls of deep-sea hydrothermal vents, requiring temperatures of at least 90 °C for survival.

Many hyperthermophiles are also able to withstand other environmental extremes such as high acidity or radiation levels.

Note also that they do not even depend on current energy from the sun as almost all lifeforms do. As long as those deepsea vents remain hot, they have what they need.
No way. We like to think of ourselves as the peak of evolution, the most successful species and so on, but the fact is that every single individual alive today lives because all their ancestors survived long enough to be successful in the game. We are equally much winners - so far. Sure, we can look ahead and say the great apes will probably be dead soon, but that's our opinion. Evolution isn't about prescience. It's about what is, not what will come. Whether we will suddenly nuke ourselves has not been decided yet, and nature has, with its characteristic lack of forward planning, not taken that possibility into account one way or the other.

But the real lords of the planets are the microbes. If they could think through some form of emergent behaviour or something, they would probably regard us as mere brownian motion in the tea cup of evolution.

Apropos microbes: here's a link to an appropriately doomerish la times article called "The Rise of Slime".

Hello CrazyPat,

I am assuming you have read my previous postings on Mexico.  Mexico City [pop. approx. 20 million] is an area in extreme Overshoot, and the ongoing election standoff and Cantarell depletion is only adding to the population stress.  Now add in the absolutely mind-boggling water shortages and energy requirements to keep this area minimally supplied--Mexico City is optimally primed for a titanic clash as they go postPeak.  This link is two years old, but my guess is that things have only gotten worse since it was first published.

Excerpts:
-------------
Water Crisis as Mexico City Sinks Faster than Venice

Mexico City's underlying aquifer is now collapsing at a staggering rate beneath the streets. While Venice slips into the Adriatic at a fraction of an inch each year, Mexico City is lurching downwards by as much as a foot a year in some areas. Over the past century, it has dropped 30ft.

The city now has five pumping stations working around the clock to draw water vertically three-quarters of a mile from the neighbouring Cutzamala River basin and from the lower catchment area of the River Lerma. Paying about $50,000 (£28,000) a day in water rights alone, the system consumes the same amount of electricity as Puebla, a city of 1.3 million people to the south-east.

Below street level, the ongoing subsidence is wreaking havoc with the water distribution and drainage systems. The city's 8,300-mile network of water pipes routinely fracture, losing up to 40 per cent of potable water supplies, according to some estimates. The city's sewage used to drain away by gravity towards a far-off outflow in the Gulf of Mexico but now needs to be first pumped uphill before it can be drained.
----------------------
The Mayan and Aztecan collapses of yore will be nothing compared to when Mexico City has to be evacuated.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

westexas,

We may be the SA of coal, but how the heck does one "ramp-up" quickly with it? Especially if you tie GHG preventatives to it. It seems to me that we are tied to the Middle East for quite some years.

Funny he did not mention kicking over the Syrian regime. That might prove a benefit - just the knocking over of it, not occupying it. Eliminating an ally of Iran might be of benefit.

"Knocking over" Saddam has worked out well so far (for the long suffering USA taxpayer).
BrianT,

Legitimate point. But Syria continues to be a way-station and suppler of arms flowing into Lebanon (and Iraq).

Instead of occupying, maybe disposing of the Assad regime and letting the Syrians sort things out would buy the West and Israel time, and it would be a blow against Iran. Remember, there are very very few Shias in Syria, it is run by Alawites and is largely Sunni.

The Sunni/Shi'a split doesn't seem to be too important to Syria at the moment.  If the West went in and took out the Syrian gov't what do you think the Islamic world's reaction might be?  The whole Middle East is at a "tipping point"--the last thing we should do is give it a giant push.  Let's not forget the law of unintended consequences............
Autodidact,

All good points you make. But remember Syria is not currently a religious regime, but a Fascist state left-over, sort of like Franco's Spain into the 1960's.

But the Alawites dominate it and it would be comparable in part to having half the Cabinet in the USA run by members of the 7th Day Adventists. Some Sunni consider Alawites as beyond the pale.

Neither was Iraq, and the Baathists were despised as irreligious autocrats.  Now look what happened.
You are talking about creating a civil war in a country of 19 million people!

This is not a fucking game of Risk, you are talking about regular people, families, civilians.

The civil war in Iraq didn't satisfy your bloodlust? Just give it time.

What's wrong with you?

"This is not a fucking game of Risk, you are talking about regular people, families, civilians"

RIGHT ON!!!

Racism is judging a person or group of people solely on the basis of race.  Hating all the Arabs, or Muslims, or any ethnic or religious group, is fucking RACISM!!! And this is exactly the way the gov't=media=corporations wants you to think.  This is the propaganda 24/7 in our media.

Oh, and by the way, Red Cross observers on the ground in Qana say there were no rockets or Hezbollah in Qana.

It is not racism when the race (or culture) is Ay-rab. They are obviously 100% evildoers. You don't even have to listen to the MSM. You can get the message every day right here on TOD.
The actual targeting video footage disagrees with these observers you mention. Do you have a source for your story?

Thank you in advance.

All news sources I have been reading say there were no missile launches anywhere near the Qana homes that were bombed.  Even Israeli media are admitting that:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/745185.html

I have to admit that I do not put much faith on Israeli military propaganda "targeting video footage" that show a truck driving on some road as evidence of "rocket launchers" entering Qana.  With all due respect, my friend, I am surprised you do.

If you want to make a difference in a positive way, why don't you go to www.fromisraeltolebanon.com and sign the petition to stop this blood bath?  Thanks!

Fire Temple,

O.K., I will accept your solid argument that there was a major screw-up. In WWII it was called a FUBAR.

People died. It is wrong and sad.

If Hezbollah will work under the Lebanon Govt., AND as a part of it, and will not fire missiles into Israel UNLESS the entire Govt. agrees to it, well, I think you have an agreement (maybe with also taking/stopping resupply of THOUSANDS of missiles from Iran/Syria.)

On the radio last week I said if a third party fired missiles from Baja California into National City and Chula Vista, what do you think we would do? See President Wilson in 1916.

In World War Two the word was SNAFU.

Contrary to what is presented in "Saving Private Ryan" the FUBAR acronym came later (our of Vietnam, if memory serves, but I could be off by a war or two).

For current usage, most popular is BOHICA: Bend Over, Here It Comes Again.

For those doing multiple tours in Iraq, the last formulation is especially appropriate.

"This is not a fucking game of Risk, you are talking about regular people, families, civilians"

Tell that to the people that are shaping today's "New World Order"....didn't Bush Sr. coin that phrase?

AIPAC PNAC rah! rah! rah!

Ultimately, the only race you can't be racist against are the Chosenites. There have been coy murmurs here and there in the liberal press that you know, it's OK to not like black people, as long as you're not mean about it, and of course the noise about "illegal immigration" which we all know is about those brown people from down south, not illegals from England and Europe, and needless to say working-class white people have been a legitamate target for hate for years now, but don't ever ever ever say anything non-adoring about the Jews.

Now, there are Jews, and Jewish groups, who are against Zionism, but as much as possible is done in the US to deny they even exist. This is why  Chomsky is so marginalized here. There's actually a much more lively discussion about the direction Israel should go within Israel than here in the US.

The US is basically owned and operated by the AIPAC/PNAC faction of Zionists, being about equal parts Jews and Christians who seem to believe, respectively, in the superiority of the Jewish race and in the necessity to do whatever the Jews want so Jesus Christ will come back*

*which if he actually did, boy would he be pissed!

Your mask is slipping, fleam.
Your response is supporting his argument, don't you think?

fleam : don't ever ever ever say anything non-adoring about the Jews.

Jews are "more equal than others" with respect to antiracism.
I am surprised that you don't see the danger in this unsustainable position, it makes things worse.
There will ALWAYS be some racism around against EVERY and ANY group, it has to be contained to reasonable levels just like our other maladaptive traits.
There is no "final solution" to racism.

I think I disagree with you fleam. I want a safe Jewish state, I don't think the power of AIPAC/PNAC is quite as strong as you suggest.

I have Jewish friends, want Israel to be, yet mostly despise the Zionist state Israel is now.

Sadly I think Israel has crossed too many lines now and have probably united too may arab folks agaisnt them. My guess is that Israel must relocate to USA asap.

Becuse anti-Semitism crops up everywhere, it'll be hard to find a place willing to accept a moved Israel. Anti-Semitism mixed with NIMBY-ism means that nobody will want a new Israel given the government's track record and displacement of people needed to make room. Becuse of people having to be displaced to make room, it's nearly a sure thing that terrorism will ensue at the site.
Hmmmm, how come we don't have Anti-Japanese-ism? Japanese ppl live all over the world, there are substantial numbers of them in the US, in S. America, all over the place. Except for that one sad chapter of history in WWII, we don't have Americans or S. Americans strapping on bombs and taking out the local Okazu-ya. How come we don't have Anti-Irish-ism. There are some real FOB (fresh off the boat) Irish in the Bay Area and always have been large no's of Irish in areas on the East Coast. There have been large no's of Irish in San Francisco at least since they (and the Chinese laborers) were used to build the railroads. Yet, no one has ever strapped on a bomb vest and blown up the Irish bars, and goodness knows, everyone knows where those are. How about Anti-Chinese-ism? Anti-Korean-ism? I can shop at Wing Yuan or Han Kook markets fully confident that no one will blow the place to smithereens.

Why? Because no one has had their family massecred by Koreans, Irish, Japanese (at least not for a long time) etc. There is NO pattern of the Japanese, Irish, etc declaring themselves above the law, and massecring people around them. No one lives in Neighborhood X, where Neighborhood X has been in existance for 1000's of years, and have a bunch of this or that group move in next door, then start shooting them for sport like squirrels, cut off their water, chop down ancestral olive and almond trees, and level houses.

If speaking the truth makes me a Nazi, maybe we need to look at who thinks speaking the truth is so dangerous, or .... hey maybe those Nazis were onto something. Seig, heil!