DrumBeat: August 2, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 2, 2006 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil tops $76 as storm heads toward US Gulf
Oil rose above $76 on Wednesday as a tropical storm gathered strength and headed toward the Gulf of Mexico, threatening U.S. oil and gas rigs still recovering from last year's devastating hurricanes.
Heat wave strains power grids in half of nation
In New York, Consolidated Edison asked customers to disconnect computers and TVs. Thermostats at train stations were raised, bridge and tunnel lights were turned off, and the Pepsi-Cola sign on Brooklyn's waterfront was dimmed."I am asking New Yorkers to conserve energy and say a prayer," said City Councilman Eric Gioia, who criticized ConEd's performance in last month's blackouts.
Not looking good for Cantarell: Mexico's Largest Oil Field Output Falls to 4-Year Low
Mexican crude oil output at Cantarell, the world's second-largest field, fell faster than expected in June to a four-year low, signaling the government will miss production targets.The field, which accounts for about half of Mexico's crude production, yielded 1.74 million barrels a day in June, 13 percent less than a year ago and the least since November 2001, according to Energy Ministry data. Petroleos Mexicanos, the state oil monopoly, forecast Cantarell output would fall 6 percent this year to average 1.9 million barrels per day.
The drop worsens the outlook for Mexico's crude exports, about 80 percent of which go to the U.S., and for the country's public finances. Taxes on oil sales account for almost 40 percent of Mexico's government revenue. Cantarell is the world's No. 2 field by output and Mexico's biggest.
"The situation is probably much graver than the government would like us to think it is," said David Shields, an independent oil consultant based in Mexico City who has covered the industry for 18 years. "Oil production and oil exports are going to decline considerably over the next three years."
It's time to invest for $100 oil
Peter Lloyd is preparing for a ghastly future. The world he foresees is one in which it will cost $700 or $1000 to fill the family car - if petrol is available for private use.It will be a world in which the scarcity and expense of oil, widespread pollution, environmental ruin and climate change will bring down modern civilisation in terrible anarchy as countries go to war over oil, fresh water or arable land; as ordinary people try to adjust to living primitive lives without the medicines and technology that support their lives in the 21st century.
Dr Lloyd, an anaesthetist at the Hawke's Bay Hospital, estimates about 80 percent of the world's six billion people will die of hunger, disease or "slaughter on a scale never before seen in history".
On the other side of the oil ‘peak’
Heinberg in San Francisco: Peak experience
* "Whale Blubber Scarce -- World to Go Dark"No, I didn't make it up. And no, it wasn't Herman Melville.
The month - November. The year - 1857. The source - The Boston Globe. Really.
Gasoline's fledgling rivals: the race to power your car
U.K.: Study warns new energy law will see prices plummet
New legislation on energy efficiency could sharply reduce the value of much of Britain's commercial property, an architecture firm warned today....In a report published today, the international architects Gensler said 75% of property developers believe that the impending legislation will have a negative impact on the value of older, more energy inefficient buildings.
Rationing could be key to war on climate change
Governments may be forced to turn to wartime-style rationing to combat climate change, or risk mass migration and more than 40 million deaths, an expert in global warming has warned.
Customers pony up for renewable energy
[Update by Leanan on 08/02/06 at 10:53 AM EDT]
Oil off highs on supply report
Gasoline stockpile posts smaller drop than expected; crude dwindles, distillates in-line.
You can read the Weekly Petroleum Data Report here.
"Stop whining; ExxonMobil is doing its job"
by Jim Jubak
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/StopWhiningExxonMobilIsDoingItsJob.aspx
excerpts:
Sorry, but ExxonMobil (XOM) critics are just plain wrong. They've picked the wrong target for their rage. ExxonMobil is actually doing a good job at what an oil company is supposed to do: find oil and gas and sell it to make money for its shareholders.
...
Face it. The world has a shortage of cheap, easily refined oil. It's become harder and harder to find significant new reserves of oil -- especially reserves outside the control of the national oil companies of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and the rest of OPEC. And much of tomorrow's supply of hydrocarbons is going to come from unconventional sources that are expensive to tap and that take a long, long time to get into production. I don't think we're ever going back to the days of cheap gas.
Greg in MO
Love affair with cars starts to skid
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press Writer
Tue Aug 1, 3:22 PM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060801/ap_on_go_ot/driving_americans
-or-
http://tinyurl.com/o3hmb
WASHINGTON - Americans love their automobiles, but not as much as they used to.
Nearly seven in 10 drivers enjoy getting behind the wheel, while the rest think it's a chore. In 1991, nearly eight in 10 said they liked driving.
The biggest reasons for dreading the road: traffic and the behavior of other drivers. Only 3 percent point to high gas prices.
"Other drivers get on my nerves," said Steve Heavisides, a 45-year-old teacher from Vernon, Conn., who had just returned home from a short drive. "There was a women who could have gone right on red and she was just sitting there talking on her cell phone. People don't pay attention and that gets on your nerves."
About one in four drivers thinks of his or her car as "something special" instead of just a "means of transportation," according to a poll released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center. Nearly one in three thinks it has "a personality of its own."
Americans have been loving their cars for about a century, buying increasingly bigger, faster and more expensive cars while the rest of the world moves toward economy and efficiency. But the new poll suggests that driving is becoming more of a burden for many.
The souring attitudes evolved as many Americans moved farther from central cities, generating longer commutes and more congestion. By 2001, the U.S. had more personal vehicles (204 million) than licensed drivers (191 million).
Urban drivers endured an average of 47 hours of rush hour traffic delays in 2003, a threefold increase from two decades earlier. The worst problems were in Los Angeles, where the average driver suffered almost 100 hours of traffic delays. That's about four full days of waiting for the car in front of you to move.
"I sit there in traffic when it should take half an hour, now it's taking an hour and 15 minutes," said Stacy Baglio, 36, who drives 28 miles to her sales job in northern New Jersey. "People are weaving in and out of traffic. There is no common courtesy whatsoever."
Pew conducted the survey of 1,048 drivers from June 20 to July 16. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The results were compared with a Gallup poll done in 1991.
The new poll's results were consistent among drivers of cars, pickups and SUVs. There were few regional differences among drivers, although northeasterners were more likely than drivers in the rest of the country to have "shouted, cursed or made gestures to other drivers" in the past year.
The key to rediscovering automotive bliss: Zen out. Too many people think of driving as competition, says Leon James, co-author of the book, "Road Rage and Aggressive Driving." Happy drivers think of traffic simply as part of the process of getting from one place to another, kind of like the process of taking a shower to get clean, he said.
"Americans are nice people," said James, a psychology professor at the University of Hawaii. "But there are certain areas that have to do with games and competition, where we become less nice to each other."
Jennifer Geisinger seems to have it figured out. The 31-year-old Realtor from suburban Minneapolis said she loves to drive her 1999 Honda CRV.
"It's something about being in control and getting out on the road," Geisinger said. "I don't have a sports car and I don't speed. But I love my car."
Geisinger also has something in common with 68 percent of all drivers: "Oh I sing, of course," she said, adding that her stereo plays country, opera and Broadway show tunes.
_
On The Net:
The Pew Research Center, Americans and Their cars: Is the Romance on the Skids?
http://pewresearch.org/social/pack.php?PackID16
I wonder, seriously, if the lady at the stoplight made a conscious "golden rule" decision that she would be willing to wait for anyone else?
Regardless, I observe her behavior, and that of the man behind her, as entirely within our semi-monkey nature.
What do you mean, "semi"?
And who's to say who is being rude in that situation? What if she hadn't had her blinker on, and he thought she was going straight? Would he still be annoyed?
For me, it's a matter of safety. There's a monster intersection outside my office. Split-phased, arrows, divided highways, cat-tracks, jug handle, etc. Many of those who drive through it are commuters. They drive it every day, and know how it works. They recognize the timing of the light, and know when it's safe to turn right.
People who aren't used to it find it very intimidating. They sometimes try to turn right on red, and get nailed by people turning left. (The split-phasing throws them off.) If you you're not familiar with an intersection, there's nothing wrong with waiting for the light to turn green.
Most intersections are timed so that that the longest you have to wait is 4 minutes. (Any longer than that is a safety hazard, because people will try to run the light if they have to wait too long.) So this guy was having a cow at having to wait at most four minutes.
Another driving example is the "slower traffic keep right" rule. Most people follow it, probably out of a "golden rule" instinct. The few people that violate it are met with honking, flashing headlights, gestures, & etc.
So sure, maybe this was a "special" situation and the guy misjudged. Maybe the intersection was the factor and not the cell phone.
But in terms of illustrating human nature that doesn't matter. It was the perception of anti-social behavior that provoked the response.
But hey, this is California, I understand that we honk less anway ;-)
There was a delay in getting both aboard and six cars were stacked up behind.
Both visitors were amazed that there was not one honk from anyone.
I've got something similar to this. It's a left on the highway and if you miss the light when you are suppose to get it you sit for roughly 2.5 minutes. If you miss that one, whose to say if you had been on that highway 2.5 minutes ago, the traffic would be less and result in a faster commute. During these 2.5 minutes I wonder how many cars have managed to be added to the highway? This is cumulative and those first 30 seconds adds to the chance at shaving another 30 and so on. If some idiot hadn't been typing in 2pt font on their cell, I could have gotten there quicker.
I know I'm too aggressive, but the alternative is gritting my teeth as I watch people not drive. Here in the STL we were just name in like the top 5 best drivers (not driving because the roads blow bigtime) and I can't figure out why. NO ONE uses a turn signal ANYWHERE. Now I hate making blanket statements b/c I realize the fallacy, but on my daily commute I see it everyday.
As aggressive as I am my fiance thinks I'm fair. I always signal, even before cutting you off. I know people are out there just darting in front of me if I don't ride your ass so I'm going to ride your ass because all those cars that want those extera 30 seconds adds up when 10 cars manage to fit between me and that car that used to be in front of me. So I'll cut you off if you're going to slow in the far left lane, but I'll let you know about 2-3 seconds and give you a moment to keep me out. I think it's fair enough.
My driving is concentrated on the highway so you would think its a simple trip, but when people are constantly failing to use their signal and simply barge into traffic (many times large SUV's) rather than merge. WTF happened to MERGE or YIELD!? I really don't enjoy driving at all. I hate it, I hate traffic and I hate dealing with the idiot people who attempt to jabber on the phone or any other activity besides actually looking ahead.
On second thought maybe I've just got Intermitent Explosive Disorder and need to be treated.
Also, the driver who thinks about their longetivity signals EVERYWHERE and EVERY TIME. People here are working a minimum of 60 hours a week, stressed out unbelieveably, and you have to think of them as the extreme ADHD cases or simply mentally ill - the mentally ill are generally unable to determine the motives of others, and this translates to driving by their having no idea at all what you're going to do unless you signal. So you signal. Every damn time. From when you leave your parking space, for every turn, lane change, every turn in a parking lot, when leave a space, entering a space, to when you finally return home from your errends and of course have a car or two right on your tail when you're simply trying to get into your own parking space. You signal.
I can't imagine anyone actually likes to drive any more.
The solution is to quickly swivelneck to check the blind area you are ready to occupy, give the turn signal one blink as you do an instant lane change! This helps explain why I always drive with my right hand on the wheel and my left free to do the turn signals for the one blink. Becuse I do this instant lane change move, I don't like to drive trucks, becuse swivelnecking doesn't reveal the car in the blind area becuse you're too high up.
Then the woman referred to in the article should have hung up her damn phone. THAT is what annoys me most.
And most of the laws allow handsfree phones, when those are just as dangerous. It's the distraction that's dangerous, not having something in your hand.
That said, if you are going to use a cell phone, doing it while stopped at a red light is better than doing it while the car is moving.
Personally, I hate cell phones. I don't own one, and don't want to.
Breaking News from ABCNEWS.com:
IRAQI PRESIDENT SAYS IRAQI TROOPS WILL TAKE OVER SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY BY END OF OF THE YEAR
http://abcnews.go.com?CMP=EMC-1396
***
Not only will the Iraqi military be miraculously transformed into a fine and effective homeland security force, but if we "Conserve energy and say a prayer" we will also be rescued by Technomagic and the Second Advent.
The political scene is mighty ugly in the USA.
Most folks want to be told that Iraq will be OK, that Global Warming will be OK, that there is an infintie supply of petroleum and other easy stuff to extract from the planet, and that we can continue to dump toxins into the infinite waste-sink of the planet as well.
"Tell 'em what they want to hear in such a way as they will believe it and also believe that to make sure things will be OK, you must vote for me."
The USA is politically paralysed in the face of real challenges. I hope the GOP does not fare at all well in the coming elctions, but the Democrats might have a tough time managing the mess all the same.
"Tell us a soothing bed-time story," saif the Voters to the Politician. Please don't make it too scary, just enough to be exciting. Make it come out all right so I can get back to sleep." "OK," said the politican, wanting nothing more than a sleeping electorate.
There is no viable political solution, no matter who wins in November. As has been discussed here ad nauseum, no alternative fuel is going to coming riding in to rescue the future. Neither democrats or republicans have even stratched the surface in preparing America - and the world - for the massive societal upheavals that are soon to occur. In the meantime, millions of Americans go about their daily tasks, somehow thinking that no matter what happens, the status quo - or at least something close to it - can be infinitely maintained. Its mind-boggling.
I just read the "When chaos replaces oil" article, and it dovetails 100% with what we'll certainly be seeing within the next decade. Who's ready for the advent of subsistence living?
I'm depressed.
I agree with you. Ultimately humankind will be better served by localization and subsistence living, but how to get from here to there? Right now I feel like this guy did who witnessed a pig getting killed on his cousin's farm:
I think that's great advice, and thank you for it. However, even among those that are mentally prepared for the coming rigours, the physical aspects of tending to a farm and growing/killing your own food will be much more than expected.
Here's the link. I forgot to include it with the excerpt.
The people who are most likely to be aware of GW (and to a lesser extent, PO) are the same ones who gasp in horror when I tell them I enjoy small game hunting. The gasps get louder when they realize that yes, I really do eat squirrel and rabbit. It's going to be very difficult for some people to adjust.
I just can't imagine the average cubicle-dweller doing anything else. They're idea of roughing it is making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich on their granite countertop at home.
I just can't imagine these people butchering a hog or a stray dog, and sewing up the holes in their clothes by hand. I can't imagine them making an educated guess as to whether the water in the ruts by the side of the road is safer to drink than the water trapped in an old stump.
If the Fall is fast, we're going to see a lot of people make, for them, the most logical decision and just sit down and die. The problem is, the fall will in all probability be rather slow, because of complexity and inertia in our system.