DrumBeat: August 3, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 08/03/06 at 9:35 AM EDT]

King Abdullah’s First Year

Lost in the swirl of controversy surrounding this new analysis by some people of world energy dynamics is that few publications have noted that the accompanying scare was originally the result of writings by Matthew Simmons. The latter has been and remains a controversial source. Simmons’ analytical credentials, if not also his prognostic ones as well, are considered by many to be dubious given that he has long been an American investment banker based in Houston, Texas.

Even now, relatively few people outside the publications and conferences where Simmons has argued this case would have known the frequency with which his contentions have been soundly rebutted by geologists, petroleum engineers, and oil reservoir technical specialists. These quite differently situated individuals and specialists, almost all of whom have had decades of firsthand experience working with the oil fields in question and whose work has required that they carefully monitor and report on such matters every day, all year round, continue to contest and argue the exact opposite of the “peak” oil theorists.

Saudi Arabia rules out oil weapon

RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, believes oil should not be used as a weapon because it is the economic lifeline of Arab states, its foreign minister said.

Asked whether the oil weapon should be used if the conflict between Israel and Hizbollah escalates, Prince Saud al-Faisal said: "The two issues should not be mixed because oil is among the economic capabilities that countries... need to meet their obligations toward their citizens.

"If we ignore this reality and start asking that the foundations of our life (be used) and enter into reckless adventures, the first to be hurt will be our citizens and no wise government can accept this," he told a news conference.


Tropical Storm Chris weakened unexpectedly overnight, and is no longer expected to become a hurricane.


Q&A with Jeremy Rifkin

Let me put it this way: The power companies and energy companies understand that we’re heading toward peak oil. That’s No. 1.


Biofuels May Not Be Sustainability Panacea


Japan's Itochu to build world's largest geothermal plant in Indonesia


Energy From the Restless Sea


An end to subsidized parking


Let's get serious about oil


When Mexico runs dry

Mexico's economy and government are living on borrowed time, and the day of reckoning may be coming sooner rather than later.

A third of the country's federal revenues come from the profits from government-run oil fields. A single field known as Cantarell provides most of the oil and the profits. While the exact condition of this field is a closely kept secret, news leaks and the limited published data suggest that Cantarell is quickly passing its pumping prime. Production in May was down 7 percent from just the beginning of the year, according to the Los Angeles Times. The demise of an oil field can be rather sudden. As one former Mexican oil executive told the Times, "Cantarell is going to fall a lot, and quickly."


Senate Approves Bill to Expand Oil, Gas Drilling; Gulf States Would Get Share of Royalties.


Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas: Political issues might motivate Russian oil blockage


Bangladesh: Power office ransacked in Jhalakati for power outage

Angry demonstrators deprived of regular electricity supply ransacked the power office in the town during their three-hour demonstration programme Wednesday, leaving an engineer and five police injured.


Road Projects a Casualty of Oil Crisis

Asphalt prices escalate as oil prices climb, making highway projects more expensive.


U.K.: Vegetable prices to soar as heatwave blights harvest

Global Production Changes
wow.
According to the EIA's statistics, Chinese oil production is still increasing despite the Daqing having peaked.

Does anybody have any idea when total Chinese oil production  might be due to peak? Has anyone carried out a Hubbert linearisation of Chinese oil production?

Great work Oil CEO.

When presented like that you can see a definite shortfall.

More than half way through the year and we have a net decrease of Half (.5) a million barrels per day.  

I recall that either the EIA or IEA revised new demand to around 1 Million new barrels per day.    So,  either a supergiant is coming online in September, or its going to be a very expensive and cold winter.

A question for the more wise,  if you reduce gasoline demand can you produce more heating oil from a barrel of oil?  ie. I don't know if you can change the mix of extractables from a barrel of crude.

BTW,  when do we decide peak has occurred?    It's starting to look like Deffeyes was right,  maybe.

===========
It's all about population!

IEA says June production averaged 85.2 mb/d on increases from GOM, Canda, Russia, China, Iraq.  If this stands it would exceed December '05.

PDF:  http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf

Isn't the IEA always high, and the EIA more conservative?

=======
It's all about population!

Isn't the IEA always high, and the EIA more conservative?

Yes Exactly! The IEA data is always premature and usually too high. But there is a huge discrepancy between the EIA's Short Term Energy Report and the IEA data. The EIA's Short Term Energy Report had OPEC production, December to May down by 855,000 bp/d. But the IEA, for the same period, had OPEC production up by 300,000 bp/d. That is a discrepancy of 1,155,000 bp/d. It is hard to reconcile that kind of difference.

December to June the discrepancy closes from down by 555,000 bp/d (EIA) to up by 500 bp/d, (IEA) a difference of only 1,055,000 bp/d. Still a difference too large to be reconciled.

But you must wait until the EIA publishes its International Petroleum Monthly to get data that is checked and cross checked and far more accurate than the IEA's premature data. The latest issue has the May data. That data has OPEC production down by 607,000 bp/d, December to May and World production down by 981,000 December to May, crude + condensate.

There is absolutely no chance that the world will produce more crude oil in June 06 than in December of 05. I am expecting a slight increase in June however but a subsequent drop in July.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/contents.html

Did anyone notice that Iraq's figures are exactly the same three months in a row?

OPEC has been taking hits for publishing bogus data on oil production; the US colonial masters dont' seem any different.

Copy and Paste.
Wait a minute..... Oil CEO????

How can this character post good research like this one moment, and act like a drunk 13-year old the next moment?

Hey Oil CEO!!!! Matt's site RULEZ!!! Matt is da Man!! You have to go read Tainter and dieoff.org!!!! No one site is Number One they're all different views of Peak Oil!!

Cussing and lunacy should soon follow.....

Yeah, like Jekyll and Hyde. And downthread there's discussion of Israel and Jews and Lebanon and OilCEO doesn't take the bait. I have lots of respect for OilCEO when he posts on oil but that other persona is wild.
The other persona? Where on earth did you get the idea there were just two?

Bait. I don't think so. It's you little fishies that are always falling for the bait. Two down. Where's smekhovo?

You know what? I think your name is Oil CEO but some kid was on here as Oil_CEO or OilCEO and was well, acting like a little kid.
Cool. Are you the same fleam who smoked a little dope, read a little Chomsky, decided he understood the world better than everybody else and started calling Jews Nazis and Americans... what was it?...NaZionists?

Correct me if I'm wrong. I wouldn't want to misrepresent your views. That was you, right? Not some other fleam?

Funny thing was, I was going to write a cute little, humorous piece in the attempt to put this behind us. I read your initial response to my "Oil" post just previous to having to go out. Didn't have a chance to respond. Unfortunately, oldhippie preempted this attempt.

Take the fig-leaf, dude. (Yeah, I'm trying to teach a lesson in diplomacy - unless you'd rather get steamrolled, of course).

Go on, tell us all about how you can "fucking" read what you like, etc etc etc it's cute,

And watch Dad's Seagram's 7, you'll have one heck of a headache later.

You ZioNazi.

Oh, here we go with the foul language. Should have capitalized that. Sorry I mispelled that Nazi thing of yours. Can never get that stuff straight. Remind me which way the wings on the swastika are supposed to rotate. Try again tomorrow. I think you should try starting a site called "The Water Cooler." You can lead-off with commenters contributing made-up stories of Palestinian "moms" trying to cook soup while their sons watch with wide eyes as Jews across the barbed-wire play in the sprinkler. Bring it....Oh, OK, I'll give you one more chance. Take the fig-leaf. I'm serious. Where's smekhovo? Figure he would have stopped by to back you up by now. Call me a nitwit or something constructive. He's usually good for at least 8 words.

Take the fig-leaf and stop reading the Chomsky.

If you reduce demand for gasoline, you probably could make more diesel per barrel of light, but my guess it'll be easier to make diesel from heavy so to get more diesel we merely import more heavy! Heating oil (and jet fuel) are quite similar to diesel, a lot closer than to gasoline. Now, getting heavy sweet crude, that might be a challenge.

If my guess is correct, reducing gasoline demand and increasing diesel demand will move the prices of light and heavy crude closer. But sour will be cheaper per barrel than sweet becuse sour is a pain to refine to get the sulfur out.

A question for the more wise, if you reduce gasoline demand can you produce more heating oil from a barrel of oil? ie. I don't know if you can change the mix of extractables from a barrel of crude.
The answer is yes. By changing the feedpointon distillation columns, reflux rate, etc, we can change the characteristics of the basic mix. We also use various cracking and reforming techniques. That's why there is a "switchover" of refineries to increase distillate oil production.

In theory, with enough processing you can make any crude come out with whatever final product you want. However, the energy requirements to stray that far away from the natural distillation curve starts becoming quite large.

Down 509 divided by 84776 gives -0.60 percent. We are down less than 1% from the top, correct?
It all depends on how you want to measure things. I only went back to January here. The official EIA peak is December 2005 at 85,051 - so that would make it about a .9 percent decline by your count.

May of 2005 comes in close at 85,008. Keep in mind that the EIA revises its figures every month by as much as 500,000 bpd, and will frequently re-revise them later.

The margin of error is huge. The more I work with these numbers, the more I come to believe they are useless and that we are wasting our time depending on them for anything.

I like moving averages. If you use a six-month trailing moving average and then compare these figures to the corresponding month twelve months ago, you won't find any declines in the last two years. Although we are starting to cut it close. May comes in at 100.29%(.29% above May 2005's 6-month SMA) using this method - the lowest in the last 2 years at least. To put that in perspective, using that method, we were seeing up to 5% gains per month in 2004.

May of 2005 comes in close at 85,008. Keep in mind that the EIA revises its figures every month by as much as 500,000 bpd, and will frequently re-revise them later.

I consider this a gross exaggeration. The IEA often revises its figures by almost 500,000 bpd but never the EIA. I do not believe anyond follows the EIA dater closer than I and I have never seen a revision anywhere even close to half a million barrels per day.

The EIA revises its totals because it gets revisions from each individual country. These revisions are usually in the range to 10 to 20 thousand barrels per day or less. Sometimes these revisions will go back several months. But they never amount to more than peanuts as far as the totals go.

February 2006 was initially reported as 84,330. It has been revised to 84,776. Four questions.

  1. Is 446,000 barrels-per-day peanuts?

  2. How close is 446,000 to my initial estimate of 500,000 - which you characterized as a "gross exaggeration"?

  3. Why did you put the word "never" in bold?

  4. Do you work for the EIA statistics department?
Well no, the last backup I has the data for March 06. That report has February 06 data, all liquids, at 84,410. That puts the revision for all liquids at 366,000 bp/d. A lot more than I have ever seen before but still a long ways from half a million.

Which is another point. All liquids is crap! It includes propane, butane, ethanol, biodiesel, refinery process gain, and a host of other things that have nothing to do with crude oil. The revision for February 06, crude + condensate was miniscule, as it always is with the EIA data. Same report:
Crude + condensate
Feb. 06 73,807,000 bp/d
Revized latest figures
Feb. 06 73,825,000 bp/d
A revision on 18,000 bp/d.

And this is an extremely large revision for crude + condensate. I have never seen a revision much larger than this for crude + condensate. I put that in bold because I wished to.

Revisions in crude + condensate are always peanuts.

No I do not work for the EIA but I gather and keep data every month. I back up my data every two or three months. The data above is from my last backup as compared to the latest data.

Okay, I apologize for not realizing how crappy the data for "All Liquids" really was. My bad, but it gives me another reason for using only crude oil in my data, never biodiesel, ethanol, propane or butane. The EIA gathers these figures for crude + condensate only by totalling up the data from each nation. Therefore there can be no revision greater than the total revisions for the individual nations. And there is usually only one or two nations revised with each report. Therefore the total revisions is always only peanuts as far as the total goes.

I posted a couple more graphs on the next thread the Stuart posted. They plot crude+condensate and all liquids on the same graph. The discrepancy between the two has been growing for some time. I agree that it makes a lot of sense to focus more on crude only.
What is the standard deviation of the EIA series over, say, 5 years (STDEV function in Excel)?
3.166 million barrels per day since Jan 2001.

4.506 million barrels per day since Jan 1995. Does that seem right? I'll send you a copy of the spreadsheet if you've got an email drop.

If about 2/3 of the measurements are within +/- 3.166 mbpd (or 4.506 mbpd on the Jan numbers) then that STDEV would seem right. You will have to judge.

The idea is to try to guage "significant" deviations within the data. I'm just trying to be a math nut here. A report of around +/- 3.166 mbpd would be a "1 standard deviation" event. A report of around +/- 6.332 would be a 2 standard deviation event, which should occur no more than 1 time out of 40 (2.5% of the time).

If the data is "normal" you'd have to pretty much ignore any event less than 1 standard deviation -- from a noise standpoint. And you'd have to ignore *sequential* events as well, unless you change timeframes and re-normalize your data.

I don't really understand what knowledge you are gaining here. Because oil production is increasing almost every year except a few, or has been so far, the more years you include the greater the standard deviation will be. Doing the function for the last five years on crude + condensate, including this year, I get 3.027 million. But doing it on every year since 1970, I get 6.727 million. But since the data is generally increasing, this tells me nothing.

Or does it and I am just too dumb to see it?

If the STDEV increases as you go back and include more data then the data was more volatile back then. Increasing and decreasing don't have anything to do with it because the changes are squared when doing to calculation.

What you are gaining in the calculation is a sense of perspective on the noise. Rather than get caught up in a prediction based on a short series of sequential, but possibly normally distributed numbers, you look for a significant change based on the statistics of the series.

Since (or if) the data is really getting less volitile then it could be easier to see a true downturn.

Well hell. I read a book called "The Bell Curve" and it described a standard deviation as the average difference between any two points in the sample. That is if all your data points are close to gether, then the standard deviation would be small. But if there was a very wide difference between the data points, then the standard deviation would be large.

So, beginning in 1970 the total world crude production was just over 45 mb/d and this year it is averaging over 73 mb/d. So the average difference between now and 1970 would be much greater than between now and 2001.

And I just proved this on my Excel spreadsheet. I placed the numbers from 1 thru 50 in a colum and did a "stdev" on the entire column. My answer was 14.577. Then I did the same "stdev" on just the last five data points. My answer was 1.58. And since every point increased by juse 1, according to your definition, I should have gotten the same answer for both.

No. One standard deviation is the average difference between any two data points of the complete set of data points.

You have to look at the STDEV of the *changes*, and the changes are all 1. In that case the STDEV is 0. What you have calculated is the "average difference" from the mean (which in that case is 25.5). You are correct that that is not particularly meaningful.

Sorry about leaving "the changes are squared" detail out until my last post. This was not particularly clear by me. I'm so familiar with this junk that I assume that what I'm saying is immediately clear.

Can you try again with the changes in the data?

Good points. Looking at the variability of these numbers is important, especially since the data is weak. Put another way: if one believes the ultimate monthly peak production will be 86 or 88 or 90mbpd, our current output is not significantly different. Statistically, we are at peak.

I was speaking with another PO person, who feels we may get a "cushion" of another 1mbpd of net new production, which sounds plausible to me. But this is only about 1.2% of daily production, and a fraction of one standard deviation. We have too much noise, and not enough signal.

One must consider when looking at these stats that Q2 is always the lowest production quarter of the year.  Always.
Except in 2005 when it was the highest quarter, and except in 2004 when the first quarter was the lowest quarter...
...Q2 is always the lowest production quarter of the year.  Always.

And yet I see this graph at trendlines.ca:

Either I'm misinterpreting what I see here, or "always" means different things to different people.

Maby that site was made by Freddy's lying twin.
Oh that's rich, using Freddy's own website to disprove Freddy. Well done!
Hello TOD'ers,
First time post. I'm meeting today with Senator Russ Feingold's staff, not as a lobbyist or as a member of a special interest group, but as a constituent from Wisconsin.
I sent a letter to him a month ago detailing my concerns in relation to peak oil. I stated that Ethanol production was non-viable (EROEI) and damaging to cropland. I spoke of bolstering rail services, both for industry and transit. Finally, I asked him to acknowledge the challenges ahead and to create policies that inform and assist his constituents during the coming decline.
I received a letter back from his office that was a stock response regarding "Alternative Fuels". In it, he states his efforts for bolstering the Ethanol industry. HaHaHaHaHa! I feel more strongly than ever that we won't be getting any help from our federal government when TSHTF.
I need some help from you. If you were given the chance to meet with Feingold's staff today at 4pm, what would you discuss during the meeting?
Thanks,
Tom Anderson-Brown
Seems like Feingold's already doing a lot of good things.  Not sure there's any reason to suggest otherwise.

As he is a senator from a corn-producing state, I can understand his interest in promoting the ethanol industry.

You might point him to the Cornell-Berkeley study:

http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/July05/ethanol.toocostly.ssl.html

He supports higher gas mileage requirements, no ANWR drilling, reduced reliance on foreign oil, and alternative energy.  Presidential timbre?

Texas oilman Boone Pickens, a lifelong Republican, has proposed increasing the gasoline tax up to where we would be paying the same price for gasoline as Europe, offset by cuts to the Payroll (Social Security + Medicare) Tax.  The primary purpose is to encourage conservation by offering a carrot and stick approach.   Those concerned about Global Warming would also endorse this approach.

I would ask the good senator to reach across the partisan divide and embrace this proposal by a lifelong Republican.

I would give them printouts of RR's ethanol commentary. They are direct and unambiguous. The numbers are damning. I would ask them to respond.

I would have Patzak and Pimental ready to go if they say they've never heard of RR.

I would read RR's comments on those two Khosla threads last week. He did a lot of prep for that phone call and shared his talking points. Lot of material, well organized there.

Good luck!

Tom, I'd give them the following pieces:

"The Politics of Oil: The Discourse Must Change" post:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/4/26/121441/891

Our recent analysis of the Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act (DOER):

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/12/101236/478

Our recent posts debunking venture capitalist Vinod Khosla on the efficacy of ethanol:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/24/202222/351
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/29/205642/963

and of course, our "first time here?" intro:

http://www.theoildrum.com/storyonly/2006/3/1/3402/63420

that's about as good of a summary as I can give you.

and Stuart's post today wouldn't be bad either, just for the chart's power if nothing else.
I'm not sure this is the right approach. If I were a politician and a guy came into my office, starting to talk doom and gloom, and showing a huge stack of papes into my face. I think my reaction would be to call security.

Maybe you should just explain what EROEI means, and give him two or three reasons why the numbers don't add up.

I recommend providing a copy of the Hirsch report as well...either the abbreviated version (http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/hirsch_world_oil_production.pdf) or the long form (http://www.julianj.v21hosting.co.uk/hirsch0502-DOE-US-report-with-peaking.pdf).
Give him the Roscoe Bartlett speech, Ask him if he was there ANY of the 3 or 4 TIMES he gave it IN FRONT OF CONGRESS. (since this topic is "Very Important to him").

Peak Oil Presentation in the US Congress
http://www.energybulletin.net/4733.html

http://www.energybulletin.net/12751.html

Congressman Bartlett discusses peak oil with President Bush
http://www.energybulletin.net/7024.html

Transcript: Third Peak Oil Presentation by Congressman Bartlett
http://www.energybulletin.net/5948.html

Transcript: Fourth Peak Oil Presentation by US Congressman Bartlett, collegues.
http://www.energybulletin.net/6082.html

Ask him (since he is SOOOO Informed) if he has ever even HEARD of Rep. Roscoe Bartlett?

John

P.S.  You're wasting your time....  :-)

Personally? I'd give them all a good ear full. Throw in a few curse words too. (makes me feel better). Then i'd get my daughter to kick them all in the shins, while i spat on them.
OilProd95_Aug06

Updated for May 2006 numbers from EIA's Petroleum International Monthly, August 2nd, 2006

Wow, I don't think I've seen this graph before. What's really striking is the 89-89 and 01-03 slumps in production growth, each of which looks like it could be "The Peak" if you don't look at the latter data.

Yeah.  Time will tell.

In particular we need to combine the production numbers with news of "how hard" everybody is trying.  If everybody is trying really hard, geopolitical issues are not clouding the image, and production continues to fall ...

A good indication of that would be to plot the price of oil along with the production. Oil prices where low in 2001 so there was little incentive to produce more. Prices are high at the momment but still we don't see much of an increase.
Crude Oil Production vs. Price

Oil prices are nominal/non-inflation-adjusted monthly averages.
Last price is $74.46 for July 2006

A declining price led  the decreases in production in the past. That is not the case this time. Very important difference ...
Agreed.  Very striking on that graph.
This is more convincing than the basic plateau plot.
Any way to plot investment per additional barrel of oil? I.E., what was the investment cost to get those additional barrels in preveious years?
The striking thing is not that production slumped in the past when there were global recessions or low oil prices. The striking thing is that production is stagnating or falling at a time of record high real oil prices and surging global demand. I don't think that we have seen THAT combination previously.
"The striking thing is that production is stagnating or falling at a time of record high real oil prices and surging global demand. I don't think that we have seen THAT combination previously."

We haven't seen in globally, but we have seen it locally, when Texas, in response to a 1,000% increase in oil prices, showed a 30% drop in production.

someone should plot prices and production on the same graph...

anyone know where i could get datasets for the two variables? i will run it on sas if someone can locate it

How much of this imbalance could be caused by speculation?  I don't really know much about how the futures market works but you can see that futures going out to 2009 are more expensive then current spot prices.  Might this and the large volume in oil futures trading be keeping oil off the spot market, artificially reducing current supply/driving up price?
I don't think that very much is caused by speculation. Consider the amount of oil consumed on a daily basis, and then compare that to the amount of oil that can be purchased and then held off the market, in storage, in private hands. Do not count government stockpiles, unless you believe that governments are engaged in the speculation. For me, I just do not see speculation taking that large a role in the three year run up in oil prices.
The fact that there are higher prices in the future is merely an indication of the predicament were in.  Don't get me wrong contango has happened before, but it ended.  What we see now is that all prices in the future are higher and that seems reasonable, not speculative.  With the last three years as your guide wouldn't you want a premium to hold an exercisable contract for the future?

I'm not advocating looking at the past as any indication of the future, but right now only a few people think gas is going to get expensive in the 2010's.  If you figure in a potential deflationary collapse you might not want to hold a long term future in oil.  Those in the game see increasing prices in the future, but no one knows how high.

 I think the previous production slumps you point out and the following production recoveries will be used by many to reinforce the "don't worry" arguement.
 Were the previous production slumps demand driven? ie. did production decrease because the market did not require it?
 I believe it can be argued that this production decline is not due to decreasing demand.
 This may be the first time world oil production is incapable of meeting demand. The first time we have long term conservation forced upon us aka demand destruction.
 The only way oil prices will decline is if we can reduce consumption  at a rate greater than the supply declines.
 When you take into account westtexas' export availability  data and Matt Simmons production info it does not seem logical that we can count on having a nice production recovery as we did in the past.
  Whoever said we won't realize we hit peak until years after the fact will be proven right.
  I hope very much this is just another interim peak and the long term production up trend continues but I don't think  all of the available information supports that hope.

 

Since conservation will be forced, it will be price-driven. As it goes up, people one by one will have to do something as the price gets too expensive. In my workplace, one long-range commuter quit, two others now carpool, one driver toward the end of the month takes the bus, and I'm moving closer to work.

I intend to get a 49cc scooter for the good weather days sooner or later, likely sooner. So, the demand destruction is occuring now, but it's only the start. Once we go on the downhill, the pace of the demand destruction will accellerate and it will be dislocating.

Those are the results of the collapse in oil prices following the financial meltdown in Asia, and the invasion of Iraq.

As to what's causing it this time, that's just the trillion dollar question isn't it.

 Yes, if the global oil supply/ demand function changes from being a facilitator of global growth to a cap or a drag on global growth, the cost will be measured in Trillions of US$ worldwide.
I am wondering how many here are experiencing brownout conditions.  Here in central Massachusetts, we have been in a mild to moderate continuous  brownout for at least a day.  Incandescents are noticeably dimmer and redder, and the microwave is taking 3 minutes to heat what usually takes 90 seconds. I measured 102 VAC in my home sockets this morning.
I'm in south central Mass, and I measure 115 in my wall sockets. Maybe you got a near hit with lighting yesterday? It was wild around here.
No significant problems in Tyngsboro MA, where I work.  And we use lots of electricity at work!  A couple of minor blips was all.  We did miss the thunderstorms, though...
  • "peak" oil theorists??? I thought everyone agreed it will happen and the only discussion is when.

  • On the Isreal-Hezbollah conflict:
West Bank-> river Jordan
Golan heights-> major aquafier
Souther Lebanon-> river Litani?
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=1153292054929&pagename=JPost%2FJPArti cle%2FShowFull
"The general said the IDF was currently working according to an operational plan in which IDF troops would push their way through southern Lebanon until the Litani River, some 40 kilometers from the border with Israel"
To what extend can this conflict be over the scarce resource called water?

*The best reason why growing your own food is worth the effort: taste

Water is a huge issue for Israel.  They're downstream of everyone.  And it causes a lot of friction with the Palestinians.  West Bank settlers watering their lawns, washing their cars, and splashing in their backyard pools while Palestinian taps are dry causes a certain amount of resentment.

The solution is supposed to be gas-fired desalination plants, but perhaps it's occurred to them that there are flaws with that plan...

Why don't the Israelis try solar desalination setups? It's only a minor adaptation of a normal solar heating panel, so it shouldn't be that expensive. And you can use windmills to operate the pumps! The result is desalination plants that only require the energy of manufacture, and the sun runs the rest. It should have a great "WRoEI"
Yeah, dumb Israeli's, what do they know about solar? :-)
120C at the price of cheap flat panel sounds great. You run the seawater under pressure (to prevent premature boiling) and let it boil after a valve in the chamber with the condenser. Just add windmills to do the pumps, and you're set to have off-grid desalination! Perfect! Having the plant off-grid is a great idea as it takes no imported energy inputs, so the Arabs can't get them to die of dehydration just by shutting a natural gas valve. Given their tough neighbourhood, that is quite a selling point!
you're not taking this in to consideration
http://www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/dickinso/research/2004/range04c.htm
most crops require one inch of water per week

I do however like the idea

I did say die of thirst not die from starvation. Scaling things up to irrigate farmland would sure help the Israelis with off-grid living. The more off-grid the Israelis can go, the better off they are, given the rough neighbourhood in which they live. The distilling plants are a good start.
To what extend can this conflict be over the scarce resource called water?

Very little, I would think.

That's what I would think as well, but as Leanan points out water is very important, so I welcome all opinions what role this vital asset plays in the region in general and in this conflict in particular.
Wars are still all about the acquisition of natural resources.  The ethnic/racial/religious reasons supported by gov'ts are smokescreens.  Looks likely to me that acquiring the water from that river is the goal here.  And probably some nice farmland in between.
Yet, they are very important smokescreen, yes?

When Hitler annhilated the Jews, was it really because he wanted their resources or because he simply hated them?

Or how about the problems in the former Yugoslavia?

It's not so cut-and-dried as you might think.

Actually the property and assets of the Jews helped to fund the Nazi War machine, furthermore the Jews themselves were a resource in the form of slave labor.  Lastly, the hatred he stirred against the Jews provided another resource in the form of willing manpower to further his aims in the political and military fronts.

The elimination of the Jews had quite a bit to do with resources.

As for the Yugoslavian problem, the simple premise there was one ethnic group didn't want another ethnic group remaining on a certain piece of land.  The people involved ultimately might not have been aware it was about "resources" but I can guarantee you, that there were leaders promising land grants, and riches in the event of a win.

We are territorial creatures, and we have repeatedly shown the willingness to excercise ruthlessness if not outright violence to maintain or gain territory.  And territory is not always specifically land.  Given our higher thought processes we perceive many things to be "territory".

For instance if an idiot wandered on these forums and cursed up a storm and was being generally anti-social, the natural reaction would be to kick him from this virtual space in an effort to guard this online "territory".  Or at least I would assume that would be the course of action.

Its all about resources or at the very least tied to resources in way or another.

Balderdash

Actually the property and assets of the Jews helped to fund the Nazi War machine, furthermore the Jews themselves were a resource in the form of slave labor.  Lastly, the hatred he stirred against the Jews provided another resource in the form of willing manpower to further his aims in the political and military fronts.

The elimination of the Jews had quite a bit to do with resources.

The Jewish population of pre-WWII Germany was something on the order of 1%. I.E. it would have been impossible to run the Nazi war machine on the seized assets and slave labor of the Jews.

You can argue Hitler's Social-Darwinist outlook drove his desire to conquer Eastern Europe, but his pathological persecution of the Jews was driven by little more than ideological hate.

As for the Yugoslavian problem, the simple premise there was one ethnic group didn't want another ethnic group remaining on a certain piece of land.  The people involved ultimately might not have been aware it was about "resources" but I can guarantee you, that there were leaders promising land grants, and riches in the event of a win.

Your explanation is little more than derivative Marxist interpretation of history -- materialist explanation for a situation where they don't apply. Instead of 'class conflict' you invoke 'resource competition' as the primary explanation. Please explain how 'scarce resources' pushed Yugoslavia into civil war in the 1990s when scarce resources hadn't resulted in civil war earlier.  

We are territorial creatures, and we have repeatedly shown the willingness to excercise ruthlessness if not outright violence to maintain or gain territory.  And territory is not always specifically land.  Given our higher thought processes we perceive many things to be "territory".

So?

For instance if an idiot wandered on these forums and cursed up a storm and was being generally anti-social, the natural reaction would be to kick him from this virtual space in an effort to guard this online "territory".  Or at least I would assume that would be the course of action.

Its all about resources or at the very least tied to resources in way or another.

That makes no sense.

While Hitler's motivations were heavily influenced by his hatred, don't be fooled into thinking he just fried up the Jews well done for emotional reasons alone.  The Jews, while a small minority of the population had a large portion of the wealth.  It was in fact that wealth he pointed to help turn them into a scape goat in the first place.  

Furthermore due to Germany's dire financial straits (a fact that many of Hitler's advisors and commanders had to deal with while Hitler was off being a charismatic presenter of "glorious" Nazi ideals) , the Assets of the Jews, did quite a bit to fund the War Machine of Germany (note I never said ALL the funding).  Industrialists were quite often paid off in gold melted down from Jewish family heirlooms, and artworks formerly owned by the Jews.  Houses were seized and redistributed to officers of the SS and Nazi army.  Other Jewish owned facilities were used by state agencies for a myriad of purposes including administrative offices for industrialists, and military personnel and maternity homes for those women deemed Arian enough to be mated with SS.

Hitler's aggression against the Jews may have been seeded in emotional hate, but it was envy of Jewish wealth that allowed his hate to grow into genocidal movement embraced or at the least ignored by the Jews German neighbors.

As for Yugoslavia, its civil war was going on before Yugoslavia as a nation under the Soviet bloc.  The Soviets basically bashed some heads and told the kiddies to sit down for 80 years.  After its independence the fighting kicked up again.  That region has been in violent flux for centuries with one group Ethnic/political or otherwise always trying to get the one up and be in power over the rest.  Power mind you is the ability to use those resources within your realm of control any way you see fit.  Scarcity in this case has nothing to do with it, its pure simple human greed, and the desire to be the one with ALL the resources, and leave none for anyone else outside your group.

Resources are the ultimate reason for conflict, whether its Timmy and Bobby fighting over a lollipop, or Hirohito and Roosevelt duking it out over the Pacific.

Come on, you're really stretching it here. After the war, Germany and Japan got everything it needed and more through peaceful trade. No need for armies, no need for slaughter, just good German and Japanese engineering and open markets.

What they were fighting over, in the end, was over ideology and political preeminence among the major world powers, not scarce natural resources per se. Each country could have simply put aside their ideological disputes and traded peacefully for what they needed -- as happened with most of the world after the war. That they didn't indicates what they were really fighting over.

Of course, oil might be an exception. :-)

"After the war, Germany and Japan got everything it needed and more through peaceful trade. " What they needed, yes. What they wanted, no (at least not the things the nationalists wanted - "lebensraum").

Also, while there ideological hatred of the jews was probably not a blind hatred. I would suspect it was also in large part a cynical ploy to get a scapegoat, some convenient, imaginary enemy which wouldn't be costly to fight because they didn't have much real power. Anti-semitism through history has usually been a means as well as an ends.

Fair enough, but note the 'nationalists' didn't get what they wanted -- i.e. an ideology was defeated. Resources were more than enough for the non-nationalists, especially through trade.
Those nationalist got pretty damn close to getting what they wanted.  A few more months delay by the Americans and there was some serious concern that Britain would've finally lost, and no Western front on Fortress Europe would've been possible.

Japan also got unlucky.  If those carriers had been in Pearl Harbor at the time Japan had attacked, the US would've been in a MUCH deeper hole on that front also.  Enough perhaps to give the Germans enough time to develop "the bomb" before us, and then back their Japanese allies.

We look back on a lot of things in WWII with the rose colored lenses of a the victors.  There were several events during that war, that either proved the Allies should've been playing the lottery, or someone upstairs was watching out for them.  That war was very nearly lost a number of times.

And as for Japan and Germany getting more after WWII than they did by nationalist expansionist means, that was due largely in part by American/British willingness to forgive those populations and help rebuild those countries.  A mercy that historically has rarely been given by most conquerers perhaps because historically, resources have been harder to attain and the conquerers needed it more for themselves, than needed it as a show of mercy and goodwill.

Make no mistake, there are times when war is a more sound "investment oppurtunity" than peace when it comes to resource aquisition.  Generally speaking however, the World Governments currently in power thankfully see relative peace as a more profitable means.  But as the pie gets smaller, how long is that going to last for?

Call me a Cynic, but I think there are some pacifists on this board that don't properly appreciate the dog eat dog world we live.  And that applies from the lowest bacteria to the mighty human race.  This world is competitive a game, and humans have perhaps enjoyed their "timeout" for too long.  Barring some major paradigm shifts in thinking and some technological breakthrough, the human race had better be ready to re-enter the Darwinian race pretty soon.

I pray for the paradigm shift, or breakthroughs however.

Call me a Cynic, but I think there are some pacifists on this board that don't properly appreciate the dog eat dog world we live.

I study this stuff for a living, so, rest assured, I understand perfectly well how dog-eat-dog it is out there. :-)

Make no mistake, there are times when war is a more sound "investment oppurtunity" than peace when it comes to resource aquisition.

I don't disagree, but I think it's too simple an argument to say 'resource scarcity' is the end cause of war. It's too simple and, more to the point, often wrong. Resource constraints and resource scarcity are everywhere, but war, whether between states or peoples, is a relatively rare phenomenon. Why do you get resource scarcity and no war in one period or between one pair of actors, but resource scarcity and war in another period or between another set of actors?

Case in point, was the geopolitical competition between the US and the USSR over resources or ideology? If it was purely over access resources, why didn't Western Europe side with the Soviets during the Cold War? Why was the USSR seen as threat, but not the USA? Why is Russia seen as less of a threat today than it was some 30 years ago?

What I'm saying is that there are too many intervening variables that link 'resource scarcity' with 'war' to say definitively that resource scarcity causes war. Sometimes those variables push people into the world of Hobbes, and so makes resource scarcity a casus belli, sometimes those variables work to push people into more cooperative ventures with one another. It's just not that cut-and-dried.

What I'm saying is that there are too many intervening variables that link 'resource scarcity' with 'war' to say definitively that resource scarcity causes war.

And I think you are misreading what I've been saying.  I'm not saying resource scarcity = an automatic path to war.  I'm well aware of other influences which lead up to war.  What I'm saying is that Resource Scarcity has repeatedly been an impetus on the path to war.  Re-read my earlier posts.  I used terms such as "did quite a bit to fund the War Machine " or "The elimination of the Jews had quite a bit to do with resources".  Note I never say "had everything to do with"

I know resources are not the only, sole, or end-all reason for all wars.  My point in the earlier posts is that resources very often are a MAJOR (note not complete) reason to go to war.  Quite often they prove to be the final reason to push a group into war.

And you do yourself a discredit to present ideology as a somehow more important motivator for war when I personally would place ideology on par with resources when given the context of looking back through history.  Quite often ideology is a means to motivate the masses to perform the goals of the leadership(which may or may not sincerely believe in those ideaologies themselves) which are often interested in securing resources that will ensure their place of power.

Case in point, ideology is a major factor in getting muslim kids to be suicide bombers.  Do you honestly think a Bin Laden or Nasrallah(sp?) have the same confidence in that ideology to sacrifice themselves in a suicide bomb attempt on an Isreali Disco club?  I doubt it, they view themselves as more important than the ideology(or at least more important than the kids in reference to the ideology), and they view their children not as people but as a resource to wreak havoc on the enemy.

With diminishing Oil, and a growing desire for it there are going to be strains in political relationships.  Strains which will inflame already tense relations between countries which have ideological differences.  Those differences didn't escalate to war during plentiful oil, but with additional strains via resources, it is very likely that resources will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  It also might be pointed out that in many cases nations didn't go to war, because the UN/US threatened to smack those nations upside the head if they did.  With depleting oil, will the UN/US be credible in their threats should two nations decide to go at it especially if the UN/US can't fuel their own war machine effectively?

I can even see resource depletion reaching a level where countries of similar ideology go to war if the survival of each respective country's population is at stake.  Case in point, Japan and S Korea have been getting very tit for tat over those gas fields in the ocean between them.

Like I said, I pray for a paradigm shift and a way out in a peaceful way, but I'm not naive enough to say, that we will just work together through this and it will all be spiffyness.  In a way, depletion serves as a resource to burn the flames of ideology even hotter.

The Germans had most of the rest of the ingredients of a superpower. While they lacked nukes and computers, they did develop the cruise missile and the ballistic missile. They also invented the jet plane. They even tried to invent a "volksjager" - an easy to drive fighter plane in the form of the Heinkel 162 Salamander. But it turned out to be HARD to "drive" unlike the Volkswagen car.

By lacking the Computer they had no Flight Sim players to put behind the joystick of the VJ. In our case, if a push come to shove case came up, we have zillions of Flight Sim players just itching to get behind the joystick of any cheap easy to drive fighter jet. A former Domino's Driver who has done Flight Sim would be perfect for putting behind the joystick of a "volksjager". Where's the keys to a VJ?

Oh, come on. There was more to World War II than the Holocaust. There was this part of taking over nearby bits of territory -- like all of Poland, for instance.
The slave labor of the Jews inside Germany proper was small, mostly symbolic, however the assets of those Jews were huge. They were wealthy on a Bush Family scale. Not all of them, but as a group, it would be like seizing the assets of Jews within the US - a small group with wildly disproportionate wealth. The slave labor of people from the lands Germany conquered was significant since they only only took in Jews but Poles, Slaves, and anyone whose looks they didn't like.

What's chilling about WWII is the original resource wars were over simple soil. Germany didn't have enough soil to grow its wheat, potatoes, etc on to feed her people. Germany was a food importer. Germany wanted the rich lands to the east, but the Soviets wanted them too.

There are a LOT of other factors - crippling reparations being paid by Germany, something like the US's debt, Depression, and literal riots in the streets - there were very aggressive Communist groups rioting, backed by the Soviets, and trying to take over Germany. They almost did. Germans were being killed in the streets, old folks were starving every winter, the Communist groups were bloodthirsty and to the average German the Nazis looked pretty good. You or I would make the same decision under the same circumstances.

What's chilling about WWII is the original resource wars were over simple soil. Germany didn't have enough soil to grow its wheat, potatoes, etc on to feed her people. Germany was a food importer. Germany wanted the rich lands to the east, but the Soviets wanted them too.

Which goes to show the basic silliness of using 'scarce resources' as the cause of the war. All of these things could have been gotten by peaceful trade -- and were after the war -- yet they didn't choose this strategy. Why? You list them. Scarce resources are usually neither a necessary nor a sufficient reason for war. Folks usually get what they need a hell of a lot cheaper through trade.