DrumBeat: August 18, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 18, 2006 - 9:10am
Topic: Miscellaneous
[Update by Leanan on 08/18/06 at 9:12 AM EDT]
Shanghai Petroleum Exchange Reopened
The Shanghai Petroleum Exchange resumed business on Friday after a 12-year hiatus, a step toward the eventual lifting of domestic controls on gas and oil prices.
Ethanol is changing the way farmers farm
Farmers weaned on the virtues of crop rotation -- planting corn one year and soybeans the next to stem the build-up of disease and insect damage in their fields -- are considering planting programs that include two or more years of continuous corn.
Ukraine fears energy crisis as gas prices bite
Higher taxes on flights and cars in Tory plan
Big rises in car taxes and petrol duty are being considered by the Tories in a review of transport policy that threatens the party's reputation as the "motorist's friend". The Conservatives are also considering an increased levy on short-haul flights to curb stag weekend travel to Europe, as they move to establish the "polluter pays" principle over the environmental cost of transport.
Nicaragua Muses on Energy Crisis. The energy crisis is causing water shortages and street protests.
Necessity mother of invention in gas-fuelled Armenia
Stop one of the creaking, Russian-made taxis plying their trade in Armenia's capital, Yerevan, and odds are it will have a gas canister strapped into the trunk. Battered buses have rows of red canisters fastened onto their roof-racks.
Prices prompt oil, gas investment scams
Clock company helps workers save time, money: Atlanta employer offers flex time, van pool to ease pain at the pump.
Oil prices 'may retreat to $58 in 2008'
With demand for oil soaring yet supply stable at best, the idea that oil stocks have 'peaked' is increasingly influential. So what are the latest theories around peak oil?
In a news release on July 18th, Kuwait's Oil Minister promised to clarify Kuwait's oil reserves within days. Well, days have turned into weeks, and now it has been one full month since that statement was released. What has caused this delay? I really do not know but I suspect it is because the news is not good and the release of that data might have serious consequences.
After all, if Kuwait really had 100 billion barrels of reserves, there would be no delay, only jubilation in the announcement. In several earlier releases, the newly elected opposition party, announced that, in order to preserve the oil for future generations, oil production should be limited to 1% of reserves. Well, current yearly production from Kuwait is, today, just under 1% of 100 billion barrels at .922 billion barrels per year. But if it were determined that Kuwait has only 50 billion barrels, then to stay at 1% per year of reserves, production would have to be cut by about 1.16 million barrels per day, almost in half. That would be devastating, if not to Kuwait's economy, it would be to the political future of the opposition party. It would mean that all the free dole and other goodies, handed out to the public, would be cut at least in half. Say goodbye to any politician that tried that trick.
But the controversy still rages. The latest news, just out today, can be found here:
http://www.kuwaittimes.net/localnews.asp?dismode=article&artid=125678638
Also, the lower number for Kuwait is supported by Stuart's HL analysis.
AME Info - Energy Oil and Gas
August 13, 2006
Kuwait's reserves queried again
Kuwait's parliament has again called for the government to reveal how much oil the country has in its reserves, reported the Kuwait Times. Speculation has continued for months that the country has 48bn barrels of oil in reserve, about half of the official figure of 99bn. Kuwait's new Energy Minister, Sheikh Ali Al Jarrah Al Sabah, who was appointed in July, has said that he will clarify the situation shortly.
Well, Amanda and Abby have biked across the US on their latest tour: http://www.thedittybops.com/shows.htm
They've cycled over 3000 miles so far!
Makes me feel quite guilty about not cycling to the grocery store, a mere 1/1500th of their journey ;-)
(oh, and I also highly recommend both the Ginn Sisters americana, and the Ditties' eclectic melodies)
http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn9781-oil-and-water-mix-and-unmix-on-demand.html
"Living better through chemistry"
Well, we can all hope so. It's a better bet than ethanol
To what extent are surfactants already used to help with oil extraction?
Is its use expensive?
Is it difficult to recover the oil from the water emulsion with current surfactants?
Foreclosures soar in North Texas
More losing houses because of poor planning, rising expenses
12:11 AM CDT on Friday, August 18, 2006
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
Excerpt:
"There are a lot of people out there who live on the edge," Mr. Roddy said. "If our economy had stayed about the same as when they bought the property, things would probably be going OK for them.
"But add the tremendous increases in the cost of living, driving, cooling and credit cards, and it all turns bad," he said. "And of course, there have been bumps in interest rates which have dramatically impacted payments on adjustable-rate loans."
But most of the foreclosure distress comes from a familiar problem - not enough money at the end of the month.
"Wages are stagnant," said Gail Cunningham, with Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Dallas. "And energy costs and other expenses are going through the roof.
"One hiccup can put someone over the edge," Ms. Cunningham said. "We are seeing people with electric bills that are higher than their mortgage."
That virus that makes people fat must make them stupid as well.
My small condo's electricity runs about $18/mo, with the computer on too much. That might be the other source of my boggle.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Following is a copy of a e-mail to the group of people that helped organize the Simmons/Kunstler Symposium last year on "The unfolding energy crisis and its impact on development patterns." We brought two nationally known figures on energy and New Urbanism to Dallas. Among those attending were Boone Pickens and Herbert Hunt.
In case you have forgotten, the sole DFW media coverage of the Simmons/Kunstler event was by the SMU student newspaper. I would suggest that you keep that little factoid in mind when you are writing your energy related editorials. If you are looking for people to blame, I suggest that you start by looking in the mirror.
Copy of e-mail (regarding foreclosures):
Well, we at least tried to warn them last year, via the Simmons/Kunstler event. BTW, consulting engineer Alan Drake has some fascinating case histories. One of them is Switzerland, in the Second World War, when they responded to an almost total disruption of their oil supplies by electrifying their transportation system.
One of Alan's articles: http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html
Swiss citizens, in the Second World War, used about 0.15% of per capita US oil consumption today. Switzerland is now embarked on a plan to virtually eliminate truck transportation, via continued electrification of transportation. FYI--a trolley car on rails, even one powered by diesel, is five to eight times more efficient than a bus on wheels. Electrification provides about another two to three fold increase in efficiency.
The irony is that we had marvelous electric trolley car systems almost everywhere, including Dallas, up until the post-war period. Insofar as transportation is concerned, the future is the past. IMO, soon the only real development game in town will be Transit Oriented Development.
How about a conference featuring Kunstler and Alan Drake? Something like New Urbanism and Electrification of Transportation as a Response to the Energy Crisis.
BTW, I finally obtained a CD of the Simmons/Kunstler interview on KERA. I'm having it transcribed right now. I'll send it over to you when it is done.
Jeffrey Brown
TOD. A little nod to The Oil Drum huh?
Like the "Other White Meat" (but kosher)
Somewhat playing devil's advocate -
If that's the case then how critical is oil? Apparently they didn't need very much.
In 1998, Switzerland voted (national referundum) to spend 31 billion Swiss francs to drastically improve their already good rail system. #1 goal (of several) was to get freight off of heavy trucks and onto their (hydro) electric rail. #2 goal was semi-high speed pax rail from Zurich & Bern to various points. 1 billion CH franc to make rail cars quieter, etc.
Adjusted for population & currency, this is equal to a US vote to spend US$1 trillion on our rail system.
I suspect that this 1998 strategic decision will pay off post-Peak Oil.
Switzerland prepares BEFORE it "has to".
I guess turning off the air conditioning to fix that problem isn't a viable option to those people.
If the grid starts falling during the summers we are going to loose baby boomer in droves. On the other hand, some mid summer grid failures may just fix the whole Social security problem.
This guy has not talked to SelfAggravatedTrader. ;-) He says oil prices will be $57 by November.
Seriously though, at least this article concentrates on the fundamentals, which are probably wrong, but he has a far better chance of being correct than if he was looking at the charts. SelfAggridisedTrader says the charts are never wrong.
I just love that ad on CNBC for Jim Cramer's afternoon show "Stop Trading" or something like that. Jim, in the ad, screams; "If I had listened to the charts I would have looked like......pause......a total moron."
Seriously again, there are times when the charts do help. And there are other times when following the charts are lead to financial suicide. The times when following the charts lead to financial suicide are the times when the fundamentals are so overwhelmingly important that they outweigh any "overbought" or "oversold" technical data. And those times are right now in the oil patch. We are looking at a depleting finite resource with little or no spare capacity.
From this day forward, well actually, from over two years ago forward, the fundamentals will rule the oil price. Looking only at the technical data, charts, swings and such, will only lead you to the poorhouse if you are an oil trader. And it is likely to lead the rest of us to the poorhouse as well.
http://www.tradearabia.com/tanews/newsdetails_snOGN_article109744_cnt.html
Peter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group
They are all pals.
Gambling -- even against rigged odds-- is part of human behavior. It's probably what has made homo sapiens the dominant species on the planet.
Can't recommended individual stocks. Gave up all my licenses. Retired a long time ago.