DrumBeat: August 22, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 22, 2006 - 9:10am
Topic: Miscellaneous
CERA's Rosy Oil Forecast – Pabulum to the People
by Randy Udall and Matthew R. Simmons
At a moment when a tank full of gasoline costs $75, the Chinese are eagerly trading bicycles for cars, and Americans are consuming their body weight in petroleum each week, it would be nice to know how much oil will be readily available a decade from now. In a thirsty world, will supply be adequate to satisfy demand?
"The biggest lesson of all from Katrina is the one that nobody's talking about: It's coming, it's coming to all of us," Tidwell told me. "As I argue in the book, what really wiped out New Orleans was a combination of two things: three feet of relative sea-level rise over the last 100 years followed by a massive storm. |
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Pipeline crisis 'could halve flow of oil'
The price of crude oil could hit $300 (£158) a barrel if BP's pipeline corrosion crisis in Alaska turns out to be an endemic problem for the industry, according to the leading oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons.
BP denies it manipulated Alaska pipeline data
Nuclear energy in U.S. fights for a second act.
Wind power's gusty forecast: The U.S. is seeing a big rise in this cleaner energy.
Turkey: Power Outages to Follow if Drought Continues
Romanian oil rig comes under Iranian fire
BUCHAREST, Romania - A Romanian oil rig off the coast of Iran came under fire Tuesday from an Iranian military warship and was later occupied by Iranian troops, a company spokesman said.
Politics adds to Nigeria’s volatility: Violence centered around oil and who it enriches.
Six militants, one soldier die in Niger Delta gun battle.
Nepal gas dealers begin indefinite strike
Kathmandu - After two days of violent protests over the steep hike in fuel prices, Nepal’s energy crisis took a new turn Tuesday with gas dealers beginning an indefinite strike in retaliation to the government withdrawing the price raise.
Gulf of Mexico over 70% depleted.
Yesterday I was messing around in the US Department of Interior's Minerals Management Service web pages trying to find out how much of the GOM was still offline from Katrina and Rita. I did not find that because they seem to have stopped giving out that information but I did find out a whole lot more.
The MMS as well as the USGS both fall under the Department of Interior while the EIA comes under the Department of Energy. At any rate I it looks like they, the MMS, are look looking at many possible sources of alternative energy including gas hydrates, wind farms and other things:
http://www.mms.gov/2005EnergyPolicyAct.htm#GasHydrates
Also I found some other startling news. The Gulf of Mexico was, three and one half years ago, 70% depleted.
http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/fldresv/MMS%202005-052.pdf
The above points to a rather long PDF file, but on page 7, or page v if you go by the page number of the file itself, you will find the abstract. It says that as of December 31, 2002, the estimated UUR of the Gulf of Mexico was 18.75 billion barrels, of which 13.04 billion barrels had already been produced at that time. Remaining proven reserves were 5.71 billion barrels, unproved reserves were 1.35 billion barrels while not reported reserves, whatever that is, was 2.5 billion barrels.
Note: Before Katrina and Rita, the GOM produced about .55 billion barrels of oil per year or 1.5 million barrels per day. Now it is slightly less than that. But after BPs Thunder Horse comes on line next year then GOM production should jump to a little over .6 billion barrels per year. They expect Thunder Horse, after it gets fully ramped up, to be producing about 300,000 barrels per day. Of course by that time, late next year, the rest of the GOM will be depleted a bit more and producing a little less than it is today.
A further note: I assume this article refers to the area of the GOM that is open to drilling. That is the area off the Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas Coast. It probably does not include the area off the Florida coast. But since the oil starts to peter out as the field approaches the Alabama coast, I have serious doubts as to how much can be found off the Gulf Coast of Florida.
I think that SAT's prediction of oil below $60 this fall reflects the conventional wisdom.
I see Westtexas, you got a shout-out on Kunstler's Daily Grunt. I'm jealous.
I guess that Jim and I are both now persona non grata in certain circles.
In regard to the conventional wisdom stuff about oil prices, I keep having this vision of the various members of the "Iron Triangle" linking hands and chanting "We have plenty of oil. .. We have plenty of oil," thinking if they repeat it often enough, it will be true.
Anything your heart desires will come to you
If your heart is in your dreams, no request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star as dreamers do
Like a bolt out of the blue, fate steps in and sees you thru
When you wish upon a star, your dreams come true"
-Jiminy Cricket
That is the way Simmons & Udall end their EB piece.
Our society is deeply infected with fairy tales. It starts at childhood and goes on and on: Cinderella, Sleeping Beauty, Beauty and the Beast, Jack and the Oil Beanstalk ...
Our beanstalk. Our Golden Goose: Oil gushing up from the ground, forever and happily ever after.
Reminds me of a joke:
Two old friends bump into each other as they walk their dogs in a downtown area. "Hey, let's do drinks at that bar across the street," says one. "Can't, we got these dogs" the other explains. "No problem" says the first, "Still got your sunglasses? OK, then do as I do."
The second guy watches with amazement as his friend puts on a pair of sunglasses and approaches the bouncer. "No dogs allowed." "Oh, I'm sorry. I'm blind. This is my seeing eye dog." Oh sorry man, that's different, go on in.
Second guy tries the same thing. The bouncer says, No way dude, I've never seen a Chiwawa as a seeing eye dog.
What! They gave me a Chee wah wah?
Sur it's the same or better in LA San Fran NYC
*better protect your rights to name. I've got a screen play almost finished and a comic-book in the works. I'm gonna be snapping up the copyright soon. Last chance.
I don't have the transcript yet, but you can now buy the CD (details follow). Matt and Jim had never met until that night, and I don't think that they had even talked to each other. Jim was in the studio with Glenn Mitchell at KERA (the local PBS station) and Matt was calling in on a phone line, after giving a speech at the Petroleum Club. (The previous day, I had driven Jim and John Galvin, a reporter, all over the suburban wasteland that is the DFW Metroplex, in search of little pockets of New Urbanism--a memorable experience, I can assure you.)
In any case, Matt and Jim, coming from vastly different backgrounds, were basically finishing each other's sentences. I highly recommend this CD. It's about 50 minutes long, and it is a great way to introduce people to Peak Oil. They can listen to the CD in their cars going to and from work (a little ironic don't you think?).
From KERA 90.1:
KERA 90.1 can provide additional CDs for $10 each. Interested parties should send a check or money order along with details about the program (date, etc.) to:
Talk Show CD Request
KERA 90.1
3000 Harry Hines Blvd.
Dallas, TX 75201
Congratulations.
About a decade ago a man named Alan Sokal became 'persona non grata' in postmodernist circles. In both cases these circles consisted of people believing themself morally superiour to the rest of us.
And in both cases these people are really nothing more than filth.
Compared to all pre-car transportation methods for personal use, it's tantamount to all of us being given pilots licenses and jets by comparison. Could someone with a 50 mile commute do it on a mere bicycle? No. The sheer speed created the sprawl we face today. For those who grew up in the suburbs, 10 miles is close while someone like me who grew up in a city with a carless family would call it appropriately far. But take away the car, and suburbanites are in for a shock! By public transit, a visit to my dad (after a divorce) took all day, but a car trip was like an hour to a town 70 miles away.
An interesting thing about my mindset comes up. As a kid, separated from my dad by the great distance, I developed an interest in aviation due to a wish to reconnect with him. I daydreamed of a car-sized jet plane to drive to that town!
The "arterials" made a huge difference. Two one-way, three-lane roads running through the city. Many of the residents still harbor great resentment over those arterials. They cut through many fine old neighborhoods, doing very bad things to property values and quality of life. And of course, traffic has increased so much that it takes just about as long as before the arterials were built.
You never know who reads this stuff. I just got an e-mail from a researcher at Sandia Labs. They are deeply concerned about the energy situation. From his e-mail: 'We are all researchers with strong interests in helping our nation with whatever challenges confront it. Right now, we believe that is energy."
Anyhow, ask him what he can do about people who drive 20 miles to work every day, drive their kids to school and to soccer practice, drive to the movies, drive to visit their friends, drive to get groceries, and have 3000+ sq ft homes. How about moving all that stuff close enough together so that they can walk? Can Sandia figure out a way to do that ? Then we can get them started on how to grow food locally.
"...The idea that hedge funds can hold up oil for two years now to me seems just plain stupid. I think we should recognize that someone, some company, some country, would have woken up to the idea that it was hedge funds that are holding it up and flood the world with oil. But no one can. They can't even get the pipelines working to take advantage of it, for heaven's sake..."
At least some people are starting to wake up.
I'm not sure whether the Investor Heads who watch his show understand what that means on a personal level or to our society as a whole. They're probably just trying to rearrange their investment portfolios to make tons of cash from the coming oil collapse. Do as Vinod would do. Buy ethanol. Buy "alternative technologies" --there's the answer. Isn't capitalism cool? :-(
(P.S. I'm waiting for the Cramer show on how make money from the coming extinction level asteroid impact. The $ROI should be, well, "astronomical".)
It's not perfect but beats the crap out of the alternatives.
Isn't that exactly the problem?
The problem is that it hasn't been.
Now it's just a shell being looted by the world's rich ...
Very sad.
First off, don't label me a commie. I know what that system is about & I don't advocate it. (It is the ultimate cronyism system.)
But in so far as "Capitalism" is concerned, George Bush gets it right when he says we are the "ownership society".
Ownership means being able to lock everyone else out from "your property". GM and Ford "own" the means of production for making hybrid plug-in vehicles, not me. I don't have "freedom" to use their facilities as I please --to build PEHV's for example. Quite the opposite. Unless I can raise the Venture Capital funding for capitalizing an enterpise, I do not have any real ability to respond in scale to the Peak Oil problem.
The "freedom" you think we have is an illusion.
But if you must, keep believing.
Maybe you can briefly describe the alternatives, or point to some literature.
I'm also curious to know how you suggest that growth, the sine qua non of capitalism, can be everlastingly fuelled.
Obviously we have more people wanting to get in - and not just the illegals. Last time I looked we are thinking about building a fence to keep people out.
Hmmm... maybe with all our problems this this is a good place to live, and that we have more freedoms compared to other places.
My suggestion - if there is a political system that suites you better find that country and move there. We won't stop you.