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DrumBeat: August 30, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 30, 2006 - 9:11am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Kurt Vonnegut Says This Is the End of the World
"I'm Jeremiah, and I'm not talking about God being mad at us," novelist Kurt Vonnegut says with a straight face, gazing out the parlor windows of his Manhattan brownstone. "I'm talking about us killing the planet as a life-support system with gasoline. What's going to happen is, very soon, we're going to run out of petroleum, and everything depends on petroleum. And there go the school buses. There go the fire engines. The food trucks will come to a halt. This is the end of the world. We've become far too dependent on hydrocarbons, and it's going to suddenly dry up. You talk about the gluttonous Roaring Twenties. That was nothing. We're crazy, going crazy, about petroleum. It's a drug like crack cocaine. Of course, the lunatic fringe of Christianity is welcoming the end of the world as the rapture. So I'm Jeremiah. It's going to have to stop. I'm sorry."[editor's note, by Prof. Goose] Also today is an interesting catch by Mike over at Green Car Congress on Dick Lugar:
In the keynote address to the Richard G. Lugar-Purdue University Summit on Energy Security, at Purdue University, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Dick Lugar (R-IN) called for a set of immediate action to address US transportation energy vulnerability, including flex-fuel capability in all new light-duty vehicles, accelerated investment in cellulosic ethanol and the institution of more aggressive fuel economy standards. Lugar asserted that none of the major stakeholders—the oil companies, the car companies, the Federal government, and US consumers—are taking the necessary, substantive actions to address what he calls a national security emergency.
Current oil price satisfactory - OPEC president
Gasoline prices could keep falling
Gasoline prices are falling fast and could keep dropping for months."The only place they have to go is down," says Fred Rozell, gasoline analyst at the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS). "We'll be closer to $2 than $3 come Thanksgiving."
Oil, Oil everywhere! How consumers are being duped
If our legislators really want to help "WE THE PEOPLE" they would mandate the construction of two new refineries in America and when completed we would see gas below $1 a gallon very quickly. But really, what oil company wants to make less money than more?
Peak Oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union
Californians weigh a new tax on oil companies
STUDIO CITY, CALIF. – As Los Angeles motorist Jill Cantrell removes the pump nozzle from her Honda Civic gas tank, she spouts out two figures: "$56 for a gas tank for me and $78 billion in profits last year for the oil companies," she says. "I'm livid."
BP's reputation as one of Britain's biggest corporate success stories took a fresh battering yesterday after the oil giant confirmed that it is being investigated in the US for possible manipulation of the crude oil and petrol markets.
U.K.: Energy protesters blockade nuclear power station
Iraq’s parties reach deal on oil-sharing
Petronas disputes Chad expulsion order
China says Japan 'generating new conflicts' over gas field dispute
Aussie brothels offer discounts on gas bills
[Update by Leanan on 08/30/06 at 10:23 AM EDT]
Good article. Just about everyone who's anyone in the peak oil community is mentioned. Hirsch, Simmons, Lynch, Kunstler, Pfeiffer, Yergin, Diamond.
Global demand for oil will one day overtake our ability to produce it cheaply, and prices will skyrocket as half the world's easily extractable oil is gone. But when? A growing number think soon - if it hasn't already happened.
[Update by Leanan on 08/30/06 at 10:46 AM EDT]
Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 25, 2006: Oil and gasoline inventories higher than expected, sending crude prices lower.
"....and that is as much as we dare say on this subject at present"
They know PO, that's for sure
Also, try Bukowski.
BTW, I didn't know the NY Times had dubbed Vonnegut the "laughing prophet of doom". He would fit right in on many of these peak oil sites with that handle.
The world of Boxing will probably make a comeback as well.
Well with less oil there will be a lot less policing by the government. At least at the federal level.
There's all kinds of stuff going on, ways of life, etc that are hidden from the owning and chattering classes but are part of reality for the dreaded underclass. Growing up, I sometimes wondered if we'd landed in the 1970s or the 1930s.
I know cock fighting happens. I just meant that we would be watching cock fights in people's front yards instead of in the basement of some tenament building in Tijuana.
Excellent Point!
I don't have satellite radio like Sirius, so I don't know if they already have a "Peak Channel". But they ought to have one while they still can.
Is there an WWWeb radio station that specializes in the "Songs & Poetry of Doom"? I think a economically viable market for this exists--might be a good way to hammer into the reptilian-brain level of those who are text-averse to actually studying Peak Everything. Could help many to conserve and push for political reform.
The revenue would come from advertisers like booze, guns & ammo, painkiller & sleeping pills, bicycle mfg, etc. The playlist could be interspersed with snippets of dire news, or interviews with experts to help further juice the advertisers' sales. The playlist would feature the songs and the audible reading of poetry that is often posted here on TOD.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Catch 22
God Knows
"Now I'm forced to suffer leaders with names like Bush and Dick and, up until recently, 'Colon.'"....
That'll get a laugh from me every time.
Shampoo Planet kinda cops out at the end, Microserfs too .... a job/jobs appear(s) and all ends well.....
As we all know we're going to run into a famine in the near term.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-08-30T091750Z_01_SP 21186_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-GLOBAL-GRAINS.xml
I think I might be stocking up on some cereal now.
For those finance/econ people who want to read a little about the Bonds that are rebuilding New Orleans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_mysak&sid=ajAj5ZDjO8b4
More Detroit news ony this time they are reducing retail outlets. Well everyone BUT GM. They must know something no one else does.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2006-08-29-dealers-usat_x.htm
The article talks about how they don't have enough corn for the 2007 Corn Palace. When I visited the Corn Palace on a cross-country road trip in 1991, I wondered what they would do if, as predicted, climate change made it impossible to grow corn in the Corn Belt. I guess that we're about to find out.
Wanted to recommend a little light reading (took me 2 days to finish) if you need a new doomer fix, but are a little tired of PO. It's Dark Ages America, The Final Phase of Empire by Morris Berman. For those of us who tend to think that Americans lack something in their psychological makeup to deal with the serious issues that are looming, this is one speculation. It's not perfect, the collapse thesis could be more fleshed out, but the historical perspectives on the "American character" and the tit-for-tat history of our involvement in other countries for our own interests is very good.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393058662/102-2176903-3940106?v=glance&n=283155
Jane Jacobs -- just recently deceased at about 89 years old. Famous activist and author of incisive deconstruction of modern consumer society-- "The Death and Life of Great American Cities" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jane_Jacobs#The_Death_and_Life_of_Great_American_Cities
Prophesying collapse is not new. And collapse has occurred many times in the past.
The interesting question is "what shall we save?"
Indeed. That is the most important question around, as Lovelock and others have said also. Yet here we (rhetorical "we") are willy-nilly trying to save the Titanic.
I keep waiting for someone to say "screw this" and start doing something about "what shall we save?"
Instead of trying to save a doomed ship, its now time to say screw it, grab what we can, and make for the lifeboats.
Where do you see lifeboats?
Lifeboats are not going to materialize out of the thin air through the power of prayer, nor will they be provided free of charge by the Titanic's crew. We have to build them in our local communities using whatever skills and resources we have at our disposal, now. Here is one of the lifeboats I've been working on in my community:
www.edibleplantproject.com
So far, we have distributed several thousands of edible fruit trees, and planted a bunch throughout town. We are focusing on low-maintenance edible perennials in order to maximize local food production with minimum inputs. There are loquats, figs and mulberries growing around town with no care at all, producing thousands of pounds of fresh fruit. I would love to have this model replicated across the country.
All of our labor is volunteer labor, with most of the work done on weekends, and the land for our nursery is 'leased' for free from a local organic farm, which is conveniently located within the city limits, 20 minute bike ride from my house. Our next step is to plant a lot of edible perennials in the city parks in partnership with the city's parks department.
Local activists here managed to stop the city-owned utility from building a new coal power plant, and are pushing the city commission to construct a smaller biomass plant that would use locally available waste wood (which is currently burned or dumped in the landfill) instead. Tomorrow night, we are having a workshop with the city and county commissioners on building a better bicycle network.
If we are going to make it through peak oil and the aftermath (OK, it is a bis IF), we will have to work real hard on the very local, low-tech, low-energy mitigation solutions. Moping and lamenting the lack of lifeboats will not do us any good.
I agree 100%. Everyone should consider their personal situation and work to mitigate the effects of peak oil for themselves and their loved ones. There is no 1 size fits all answer. But everyone needs to prepare as they see fit.
Prepare on the individual, family and community level as much as possible.
Though this seems the "most reasonable" thing to do it is EXACTLY what will bring the collapse (EVERYBODY is doing that already, Peak Oil aware or not).
We should think "out of the box", that is, out of the The Prisoners' Dilemma and out of Zero sum games.
See GliderGuiders' opinion in another thread which I fully endorse.
I never said they were all ready there. Sometimes you have to jury rig something out of 'floatable' materials...
http://tinyurl.com/p3dao
It matters ESPECIALLY if we keep adding millions of people to the planet. I imagine that's part of his point. Or would you prefer we keep our 22 mpg status quo?
You evidently disagree with his suggestions; perhaps you can recommend alternatives?
Um, a massive Great Depression-style public works project to build out rail based trasportation systems in and between American cities;
OR a massive public works project to build nuclear generators, windfarms and solar farms, going hand in hand with a mandated switch-over to electric cars;
OR a rapidly rising energy consumption tax along with massive tax credits for alternative transportation, and making homes extremely energy efficient;
Now none of those are politically feasible right now. But talk to me in 3 yrs...
The fact is that our quaint little notions about economic freedoms are going to disappear so enough. Better to start now and actually get something useful done.
It's also my belief that with the massive dislocations in store for us from energy shortages and resultant economic turmoil, our belief in America an open society and democracy is probably not going to exist in a decade. Hope I'm wrong about that. But societies under severe strain are rarely open. Britain during WW2 is one positive example we might look to though.
Electric cars en mass, ain't gonna happen. I can see electrifying rails and the first part of your second choice, just not the cars.
All the rest is sad, but true.