DrumBeat: August 31, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 31, 2006 - 9:11am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Peak Oil Forecasters Win Converts on Wall Street to $200 Crude
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- On a sweltering Tuesday in mid-July, in the fields outside Pisa, Italy, Willem Kadijk scribbles notes as a ragtag troupe of doomsayers predict the end of the Oil Age.With his shaved head, jeans and sandals, Kadijk, 48, blends into a crowd gathered under a white tent to hear of the coming calamity. The death of cheap, abundant crude, the forecasters warn, might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.
That's not the prophecy of some apocalyptic cult. Kadijk, a hedge fund adviser, had flown from Amsterdam to attend a conference on a geologic theory known as peak oil.
Will the End of Oil Be the End Of Food?
American agriculture is fatally dependent on oil. A few forward-thinking farmers are trying to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
PODCAST: The Nuclear Option. Popular Mechanics on the pros and cons of going nuclear.
Tom Whipple on The Peak Oil Crisis: Labor Day 2006.
BP may resume pipeline production soon
Chad oil tax row 'not asset grab'
Western auto execs woo newly rich Russians
Booming economy fuels Muscovites’ taste for conspicuous consumption
Analysts: Venezuela move hurts profits
Cash-strapped Cambodia eyes black gold
US oil giant Chevron is poised to prove Cambodia is sitting on oil reserves worth $1 billion annually.
Absence of an ill wind blows some good
GLOBAL warming's failure so far to produce a repeat of last year's serial hurricane assault and battery of the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico is the swing factor in the suddenly soft price of oil.
Public has to make solid energy choices, Lugar says
U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar acknowledges that production represents only half of the energy crisis equation."We want our SUVs despite all the talk about the mileage isn't so great," the Indiana Republican said during an energy summit he co-sponsored with Purdue University Tuesday.
[Update by Leanan on 08/31/06 at 10:00 AM EDT]
Nigeria: Kerosene Scarcity - What the People Say
Pakistan’s oil demand to double in 10 years
China nomads on energy's cutting edge. Well, I guess this explains the silicon shortage:
One day last year, Sitkan and her husband were called to a meeting where 100 villagers waiting for a transmission line learned of an alternative to burning coal. After government subsidies, 500 yuan - a tenth of what Sitkan makes each year selling sheep's wool and meat - buys a photovoltaic solar unit that would provide enough electricity to power a small heater, a radio, a television, or a couple of light bulbs."Nearly everybody bought one," says Sitkan, a seminomadic shepherd who treks a well-traveled route each year with her family, 200 sheep, and a few cows.
BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil. A four-part series about peak oil, starting Monday at 9am (UK time).



Why would anyone think that those elected by an unimformed populace be any smarter or more informed than those who elected him or her.
Ron Patterson
like peak oil?
conspiracy theory nitwits? are my wits nits? or is your brain on the shits?
I enjoy your posts on oil, I don't enjoy anyones post on conspiracy theories here on tod. It's not the right place. Just keep in mind you post ( a lot) on a site that's considered by most to be on the fringe. in the eyes of most you are a conspiracy theory nitwit. I don't think you are but I do think you should pull back and try for some new perspective.
The fact that posters do think it is appropriate to toss any wild paranoid plot into any thread sure does make it look like one though.
It is so small it doesn't exist. (yes, we have ours sects)
Through August 2006 - What Are Our Accomplishments!?
I think Jack and myself have settled ourselves on being extremely settled.
We duggs ourselves a pitt and we're gonna defend it. I got the big money on that. what's the big money on that? We ain't stupid. You can fly, butcha can't eat it!
You didn't on both accounts but that just highlights your ignorance on the subject. Bush couldn't blow up anything. His job is to cover-up who actually did it...
==AC
==AC
I know, I know. I lost my decoder ring a few months ago and I can't follow any of the good plots any more.
Please fill me in on the Council of Foriegn Relations one again. Just this once. My curiousity is killing me.
Buy a couple dozen boxes of Cracker Jacks and you'll find one inside. I've got three of them now so I know at least three times more than you.
I'm not going to tell you about the CFR if you lost your "ring". What's the point you couldn't decipher what I was saying anyway...
==AC
Whhat? Whaaaaa? Huh...Wha.Whaat? What are you fucking insane? Did I just hear that? Hello?
What else are you going to apologize for? Pol Pot? Boy George? You are a fucking nutcake. Don't ever try to apologize for my behavior again. I own my behavior. Not you. Control yourself.
Or as we say on TOD...Cheers.
That's what I mean that "they are not calling the shots". Bush and co, are nothing but representatives of these groups. As such they act as errand boys, but mostly as PR. As such their ability to follow an agenda of their own is very limited. It is akin to telling your employer that from now on you will do whatever you want to, instead of whatever is wanted from you and still wait for your next paycheck...
Obviously, I'm going to vote for number 4 because I put so much energy into wording it.
Is there not a possibility, --a 1% possibility?-- that GW Bush and Dick Cheney (and their neocon inner circle) actually are formulating US policy all by themselves because of the way they were "grewed up" by their parents? Is it not remotely possible that GW Bush truly beleives he is a superior being cause his "Daddy" taught him that special people don't go to Vietnam but instead "serve" by boozing it up in the National Guard? That the lesser persons are the ones that make "the ultimate sacrifice"? And if you were a young GW Bush, why would that world view not be an appealing one? Hell, it sure beats the alternatives.
Is it not remotely possible that the minions of the elite; your Yergins and your Cato Institute pundits for example, actually believe the nonsense they spout out because they were "educated" to think that way? They are not knowingly evil? They actually believe in that which they blather out?
Is not remotely possible that Peak Oil believers actually believe the nonsense they spout out because they were "educated" in physics, chemistry and scientific thought patterns? Or is it that Peak Oilers are part of a vast looney conspiracy?
Well how about it? Do you feel YOU are part of some vast conspiracy? Do you?
And if not, why should "they"?
Just think about it.
No need to rush to judgment.
Actually the propagated idea that those frontmen and women are the de facto the people in charge is a key part of the brainwashing machine and that's why I am resisting it so much. If things go really bad, Bush and his crew will be changed with some others, the public will finally get its scapegoat, while in the end nothing fundamentally will be changed.
==AC
~ H. L. Mencken (1880-1956) American Journalist, Editor, Essayist, Linguist, Lexicographer, and Critic Source: quoted in New York Times Magazine, 9 August 1964
It does NOT take a conspiracy to create all the nasty deeds we can witness or strongly suspect.
Just bunchs of individuals and groups with base motivations which act in loose tacit coordination while still competing between themselves can give the illusion of a SINGLE goal seeking "evil entity".
This is our "monkey brain" penchant for identifying agency behind seemingly purposeful events.
It is much easier to think about a single anthropomorphic "will" than to ponder the effects of interacting trends in a more intricate model but this introduce severe PARANOID distortions in the outcomes.
Actually this "distributed evil" is MUCH WORSE than a conspiracy because it cannot be rooted out.
Maybe there is a little more to it than "just a bunch of individuals".
Suppose you were a Professor of Economics at Yale. (Well maybe not this guy on the right because at least he admits that GW may be responsible for larger hurricanes although he leans against that notion. Click on his picture to read his pdf paper.)
And you are getting a pretty nice paycheck because after all it is "Yale" and most of the people who go to your school can afford to go there without worrying about the "price" of admission.
So what are you going to preach to them? You're going to preach what you think they want to hear (or more to the point what their Mumsy & Old Man want them to hear). They are happy with the Darwinian, Survival of the Economic Superiors Theory that you dish out to them and you are happy with the paycheck and perks. A very cozy relation. Year after year.
Then there are the few wanna-be-rich and talented Mr. Ripley's in your class. They are smart. They will never be super rich. Wrong blood you know. But they will grow up to be the Yergins and Cato Institute wizards of society. They will be the minions to the elites. They will soak up what you preach and dish it back to the elites later on in order to re-validate that which they learned at alma matta. Again, that is going to be a very cozy relation for all involved.
Next, you step down the rungs of society and look at some slob of an engineering professor at MIT. Who are his students and what is he going to teach them --assuming he wants tenure and his cozy niche in society?
So you see that there is a built-in compact in our eductional "institutions". It perpetuates the system. It's not "just" a bunch of accidentally random individuals. It's got history. It's got roots. It is a living and self-perpetuating bio system.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arur.i7moHMs&refer=exclusive
You gotta love Kunstler. This has to be one of the most mainstream looks at what peak oil entails. I'm glad they pointed out the fallacy in believing the tar sands will save us.
Any predictions on oil prices today?
Well, something is causing gas prices to drop, so this might be it. The price per gallon in local stations has dropped as much as $.18 in the last month, or so.
This is what makes it so difficult to explain the seriousness of the situation to non-Peak Oil aware people. They look around, see lower gas prices, and assume that everything will eventually be ok and the happy free-motoring lifestyle that we all know and love will continue in perpetuity.
They don't have to do anything. The Invisible Hand can knock down prices all on its own with mere expectorations (err... expectations) regarding demand destruction.
"Price" is a human-generated noise signal. It need not have anything to do with physical reality. It is all about how we humans fool ourselves into believing one thing or another. And fools we certainly are.
Garage sales in the rich quarters.
Opportunity to live above my station at fleamarket prices...
Btw, early blight turned my potato field into a wasteland... lucky for us that we chose a resistant variety, so the nodules are mostly OK.
They state every position and opisition known in the debate. They come up with all the names that are something in the debate and state many of the effects.
They go on saying in which different organisation they are adressing the PO.
They only missed the Portland and San Francisco move. But otherwise, it is an excellent article.
I want to hear the response I get from friends, etc.
And is the esteemed NY Times next in line to chime on our PO times?
PO saturated minds want to know.
We bait with our breathes. :-)
...uh except that might cause a panic crash
Not all names are there, for example Robert Hersch. I don't agree with Hersch so much on his approach to mitigation (I'm more of a Kunstlerian) but I think Hersch brings a useful perspective in terms of viewing it as a risk mitigation problem. All this bickering over a date of the pick obscures the issue of what are the detrimental outcomes? The severity of the outcomes should determine for policy makers what level of effort should be placed on mitigation now. Unfortunately, the other dynamic is all this misplaced, blind faith in corn or switchgrass fuel.
Agree that this is one of the best peak oil articles I've come across in awhile.
The Cosmos one was very good, too, but Bloomberg probably has more cred, at least in the U.S.
But that is buried in the overlying message that while there might be a peak sometime in the future, the reader should not listen to peaksters, or doomers, as they are apparently not very nice people to be around, or something like that.
The best thing to do is be with Pickens and grab the opportunity. And that is a strange idea to take home: that the negatives are outweighed by the positives, and you therefore don't have to look too close at the nagatives. Everything is fine, as long as you can make money off it.
If you scare people spitless, they'll assume you're not just wrong, but a wrong nutcase, and they'll ignore anything you tell them, even when you're merely covering solid facts (like the history of world oil consumption).
You have to teach them in stages. Get them familiar with the facts, then give them time to internalize it (and be prepared to answer a lot of questions), and if they're still with you, start talking about consequences.
I have to laugh about this cause an argument over abiotic oil was one of the factors that led me to checking into Peak Oil.
I was watching the news one night when abiotic oil was brought up as a "solution" to running out of oil. At the time of this newscast I was not worried about immediate PO but I did think the whole notion just seemed a bit far fetched, given that there were examples of oil fields that are depleted for all practical purposes.
Throught that newscast, some conversations with friends and then later information I researched, I found about Peak Oil. It also has finally led me to a strategy on how to handle abiotic proponents.
Framed somewhat like this:
Ask the proponent to prove abiotic oil is real.
After they can/can't, hypothetically cede the argument that abiotic oil MIGHT be possible and immediately follow it up with a question on "at what rate does abiotic oil replenish our reserves in relation to how quickly we consume oil?".
If the answer is anything less than the current rate at which we consume oil then the system will eventually break itself. A constant increase in growth will lead to a break sooner, and the slower the rate of replenishment the sooner a break will occur also. A combination of both factors just speeds things up even more.
You could also ask why abiotic oil has not allowed the US to return to it former highs of oil production from earlier decades.
It's essentially like bailing water out of a ship in which you can move one gallon of water out for every two gallons coming in, only abiotic oil hypothesis works in reverse.
Long term, all bets are off of course.
Like I said at the NY conference: I"m one of the more prominent people in the "movement" and I can't afford to go to any of the conferences. That should you tell you something.
(Not that I can plead poverty but I can't see dropping $750-$1,500 plus lost opportunity costs for any 2 day conference unless I'm making over $100,000 with no other pre-existing financial obligations and the conference is going to have lots of young women.)
Money has value only because we all agree that it has value, and that agreement is balanced on the fact that the expected value is positive--there's more benefit going around than detriment, even if the benefit is disproportionately allocated. But when prices go up and hunger becomes commonplace, historically what we've seen over and over again is that people abandon money because it no longer works for them.
So, I guess I'm failing to see how money will be good for anything but kindling once Peak Oil really begins to take its toll....
Exactly. It's more like lack of demand (insufficient money). One solution would be a global basic income (say, $3.50/day/adult?).
If I want to buy a home there, we're talking another $350,000.
Solar PV system: $20,000
Small cache of food and essential supplies: $5,000
Used bike to ride over to Jason Bradford's house: $50.
I could go on but I hope you see the point. A person with no money can't really do much to prepare. Not saying they can't do anything, just saying not much.
Now Blackwater know where you live...
And if they are not sure, they can carpet bomb, until they are sure.
PAX AMERICANA
It's not really terrible, because in most cases the actions that will get you rich will also help society. Investing in technology to resurrect old oil fields is going to be very important in cushioning the peak. Likewise with other investments in alternative energy. Even simply buying oil futures helps by driving up the price of oil, thereby both encouraging conservation and also making alternatives more profitable.
The down side is you could be wrong, everyone here could be wrong, Peak Oil may not happen in the manner or time frame you envision, and your clever investments may be wiped out. That's called risk. You take the risk of being wrong, and you get the reward if you're right. It's how business works.
Like Ethanol?
Its not so simple as all ethanol being bad.
Is that also true of defense contractors and the like getting rich off of death and carnage in the Middle East? Or of the whole slew of well-known corporate fraudsters in recent years? Or of those making a killing for virtually nothing via Katrina contracts? Etc., etc., etc.
There is ample empirical evidence to disprove your free-market-capitalist a priori regarding the benefits to broader society of individuals getting rich.
In my best Michael Douglas voice: "GREED IS GOOD!"
yeah, like investing in Halliburton.
Sadly, with the current infinite growth paradigm, this 'getting rich' is true. I think Americans will be shocked going forward in time at how fast future wealth will rapidly consolidate into ever fewer elites.
TPTB are moving strongly ahead in preparing their required Earthmarines. Blackwater Security and Heckler & Koch recently announced a joint venture in comprehensive tactical training on Blackwater's 6,000 acre private military base. Don't forget: the first on the ground in Nawlins was privately hired armed men fully deputized to use lethal force.
There are internet rumors of US military Special Ops ready to go on a moments notice to protect PEMEX's infrastructure if conflict comes to a head in Mexico, but I think Pemex is more likely to hire Blackwater so that this info 'will fly below the MSM radar'. Blackwater has recently created another subsidiary that specializes in security of maritime infrastructure like shipping, ports, and offshore oil platforms.
The privatization of everything will continue its relentless course. Recall my posting from yesterday's threadbeat where the Red Cross is joining with Walmart [thxs AMPOD]: if you cannot afford res$$cue in your desperate time of need--Thank you for contacting the American Red Cross. We regret that we are unable to assist you.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thxs for responding. Yes, they made big bucks and their mission objective was to prevent the looting of the mansions and the businesses of the rich that hired them, NOT going to the aid of the helpless. Such is life.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I am not aware of any websites that consistently report the actions of private militias. Hell, even our Govt auditors cannot keep track of the billions being shoveled to these estimated hundreds of for-profit businesses. Please read this Aug 28th, '06 article entitled, "Mercenary Jackpot":
--------------------
While the WPPS program and the broader use of private security contractors is not new, it has escalated dramatically under the Bush Administration. According to the most recent Government Accountability Office report, some 48,000 private soldiers, working for 181 private military firms, are deployed in Iraq alone.
-------------------------
What I do is use various search engines and keywords like mercenary, private security, special ops, covert action, ....on and on. The MSM has a vested interest in not headlining their operations. WTSHTF: Rupert Murdoch, the Hearst family, Bill O'Reilly, et al, will be hiring these men to protect their survival farms and yacht-lifeboats.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I thought about even having a special sub section on the daily news, "Halliburton and Blackwater"
http://www.blackwaterusa.com/targetsystems/
and this:
http://www.blackwaterusa.com/training/
Are you referring to the rumors you are ethusiastically spreading? Or are there others? Failure to link to a single website may provide the answer.
I ignore any statement preceded by "there are rumors that", "I read somewhere", or "analysts say".
Thxs for responding. Try this link:
http://www.countercurrents.org/lendman300806.htm
The pertinent info is about 3/4 of the way down in this article.
The verbatim quote can be found in this earlier posting of mine:
http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/8/30/91153/3012/154#154
Just reporting what I find by googling around--many of my postings have a disclaimer whereby I state that I have no way to actually verify the info. But obviously, any websurfer knows that.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
"it's been rumored that a contingent of US Special Forces has been sent to help the Mexican military guard the country's oil fields in case of trouble."
I far prefer Angry Chimp's conspiracy theories. At least they have sone vague underlying believability beyond a circular link of unspecified rumors from unnamed sources.
C'mon Bob. You can do better than this. I at least think you are smarter than yeast.
Here's the authors bio:
I was born in 1934 in Boston, MA. Raised in a modest middle class family, attended public schools, received a BA from Harvard University in 1956 and an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of PA in 1960 following 2 years of obligatory military service in the US Army. Spent the next 6 years as a marketing research analyst for several large US corporations before becoming part of a new small family business in 1967, remaining there until retiring at the end of 1999.
Thanks Jack? "Complements" are far and few between, even if they are half hearted. I'm used to savage attacks for departing from cherished beliefs...
"Human beings never think for themselves; they find it too uncomfortable. For the most part, members of our species simply repeat what they are told--and become upset if they are exposed to any different view. The characteristic human trait is not awareness but conformity, and the characteristic result is religious warfare. Other animals fight for territory or food; but, uniquely in the animal kingdom, human beings fight for their 'beliefs.' The reason is that beliefs guide behavior, which has evolutionary importance among human beings. But at a time when our behavior may well lead us to extinction, I see no reason to assume we have any awareness at all. We are stubborn, self-destructive conformists. Any other view of our species is just a self-congratulatory delusion."
~Michael Crichton, "The Lost World"
==AC
Believing what you are told, or what you hear, plays a big role in both reflexive acceptance or reflexive dismissal of theories that conflict with prior beliefs.
I think we should be equally rigorous in viewing evidence that supports our positions as those that question it. I personally think that posting the accusation that US special forces might be taking over Pemex based on a very loose linkage that ends up with the unattached rumor does conspiracy theories a huge disserve. In this regard you should be more upset than I am.
I do think it is true that many people, including myself, find some topics initially uncomfortable and react with instinctive dismissal. On the other hand, this example shows that others embrace these and are willing to accept any nutty theory just because someone might have said that someone else might have said it.
I know that some things that we initially think are preposterous, later become obvious. At that point, we probably deny that we ever denied them. The life of a conspiracy theorist must be quite frustrating. Peak oil is a good example - out of the nutcase and into Bloomberg, but do peak oilers get credit or mockery?
I only have this observation right now, no conclusion. I look forward to arguing with you over the next huge crime the TPTB must be conspiring to perpetrate on all of us sheeple. I'll also keep an open, if sceptical, mind. You never know, focus on evidence and not just motive (or lack of proof to the contrary), and I just might believe you one of these days.
I always try to focus on "evidence". What have we debated? Pearl Harbor? 9/11? Fluoride? The problem is what one considers evidence or facts. Almost no one can make judgment on such things without some preconditioned prejudice. For example if I were to say that finding a passport of one of the hijackers onboard the planes on 9/11 is a plant and proof of a cover up you might say there is 1 in a billion chance the passport could of made it out if the hijackers pocket. How can I refute that?
The searchers found several clues, he said, but would not elaborate. Last week, a passport belonging to one of the hijackers was found in the vicinity of Vesey Street, near the World Trade Center. "It was a significant piece of evidence for us," Mawn said.
http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/09/17/inv.investigation.terrorism/index.html
New York Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik said Sunday a passport belonging to one of the hijackers was discovered a few days ago several blocks from the crash site by a passerby. Based on the new evidence, the FBI and police decided to widen the search area beyond the immediate crash site.
http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/09/16/inv.investigation.terrorism/index.html
There is always a way out of an uncomfortable truth..
To most of us nothing is so invisible as an unpleasant truth. Though it is held before our eyes, pushed under our noses, rammed down our throats- we know it not.
~Eric Hoffer (1902 - 1983)
==AC
This isn't related to anything specific, but recently I noticed they were popping up a lot and couldn't make the connection.
I've got a book for you. The Looming Tower.
Thxs for responding again. I make no claims to being an ace investigative reporter--as mentioned before, just reporting what I find on the WWWeb [anybody can do it, but somehow: Leanan does it best =) ]--take out of it what you wish.
I gladly defer to the up and coming TODers of AlanfromBigEasy, AMPOD, TLS, AC, RR, SS, Westexas, Khebab, Leanan, Dave, Todd, et al [too many experts, IMO, to mention]. They have much more expertise, knowledge, and pure writing ability than me. I think most TODers will agree with me: we are getting a formidable 'critical mass' of talent here on TOD across a huge spectrum of careers, disciplines, and interests.
I am very proud of those TODers that have achieved national media recognition like RR & others. Go Team TOD!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I don't don't mean to pick on you, but I have really thought the Mexico stuff you have been posting has been huge tracts of irrelevant nonsense, unlike the TODers you note above.
It seems that there was an election in country with a tradition of relatively free elections. One party lost by a close margin and threw a hissy fit. They have garnered little public support outside of the radical element that they are tightly allied with. Then last week the election panel voted unanimously that there wasn't fraud. Yet you have posted on this just about every day at page length. The Pemex rumor is utterly ungrounded supposition by one old guy who doesn't provide any clue as to where he might have heard this rumor or why we should believe anything he has to say about Mexico. Has any of this contributed to our discussion of peak oil?
Again, apologies. I just wanted to get this off my chest.
As for you guys. I have a deep respect for Bob Shaw. He has always remained the ultimate host. I'm convinced he has perfected the ultimate defensive position.
As for the Chimpster. I'm pretty sure the only way we can defeat him is with a concerted, concentrated full-on assault. The reality is we probably want him on our side. He probably tells the best jokes.
C'mon chimpster, you got as much to gain from us as us from you. Let's cut a deal. Plus, you ain't never gonna win this conspiracy thing. Not with me over here. You know that. Now let's start moving towards the center. Rock on.
Bin Laden was, though, a product of a monumental miscalculation by western security agencies. Throughout the 80s he was armed by the CIA and funded by the Saudis to wage jihad against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. Al-Qaida, literally "the database", was originally the computer file of the thousands of mujahideen who were recruited and trained with help from the CIA to defeat the Russians. Inexplicably, and with disastrous consequences, it never appears to have occurred to Washington that once Russia was out of the way, Bin Laden's organisation would turn its attention to the west.
The danger now is that the west's current response to the terrorist threat compounds that original error. So long as the struggle against terrorism is conceived as a war that can be won by military means, it is doomed to fail. The more the west emphasises confrontation, the more it silences moderate voices in the Muslim world who want to speak up for cooperation. Success will only come from isolating the terrorists and denying them support, funds and recruits, which means focusing more on our common ground with the Muslim world than on what divides us.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/terrorism/story/0,12780,1523838,00.html
Ya ya the "original Al-Queda".
==AC
No apology required, just expand or refute my info with your best info--that is what this forum is about.
I believe Mexico's nearly 2 million barrels/day of exports to the US should make us vitally concerned that the election standoff is peacefully resolved. I would argue that a prosperous Mexico and their continuing oil exports are more vital to our national security than Nigerian, Venezuelan, or even ME exports to our shores.
Your quote: "It seems that there was an election in country with a tradition of relatively free elections."
Sorry, I respectfully strongly disagree. Feel free to study Mexican history and one party ruling for 70 years. Revolutions, assassinations, election frauds, a computer crash in 1988--it has been tragically ugly for the Mexicans.
In my past postings: I tried to use a broad variety of sources, from BBC, to mexican websites like UNAM Physicist Luis Mochan's statistical vote analysis, Mexidata.com, mexican newspaper websites translated by Babelfish, to other US MSM sources. From CNN and Washington Post to the other side of the WWW like Narcosphere and Countercurrents. They are available in the TOD archives to prove my attempt at journalistic balance. Perhaps, you are using a selective bias in your recall-- That's OK--I have done it before myself.
You maybe correct in disputing the PEMEX-US troop rumor-- I find it politically implausible myself, but I wanted people to be aware of it. But you make a good point in that we need to get this author to provide more proof. I will try to email him for a response.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thanks for your reply and patience with my disagreement. I noted that I didn't think Mexican democracy was perfect. Compared with developing countries Mexico's electoral system has been regarded as pretty good. I did see you use a variety of sources, however, the problem isn't selective memory. I just didn't read all 500 posts.
By the way, I don't just dispute the rumor about the US troops, I even dispute that there was a rumor. One guy with a blog says there was a rumor, but doesn't even say who is spreading it, or why he, sitting in retirement in Chicago heard it or should believe it. Starting an assertion with "there is a rumor going around" is the journalistic equivalent to saying "I am making this up"
I disagree that the election dispute should be resolved, only because I disagree that there is an election dispute. I think there is a sore loser who is trying to use non-democratic means to forcibly obtain powers he was denied by the vote. I think Mexicans broadly recognize this and if the election were to be held again, he would do worse. Fortunately that won't have to happen since the electorial commission unanimously found there was no fraud.
Now about the flouride in the water...
Yabbadabbado.
==AC
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12978
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12967
Plus Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_general_election,_2006
I withdraw from this discussion, which isn't in my area of expertise. I just wanted to show that listening exclusively to one side, gets you a one sided viewpoint. Surprise, surprise.
Don't sell yourself short! I think your posts are top-notch. They also have an understated and unique humor to them. The Red Cross post was one of the funniest things I've seen float through the po blogosphere in a longtime and I intend to highlight it over at LATOC.
And don't forget, your mobile preparedness vehicle idea. If you ever get it up and running I want to sell them on my site.
. However, in order to play with the big boys and have a positive effect on the world it is a necessity to have something to offer-and money is a good start in the oil patch.
I'm pretty sure that there is such a thing as too much money because most affluent people are afraid of losing their money. Its easy to become arrogant. And I am also sure that lacking basic necessities makes a person short-sighted and selfish. In our society money gives a person status, even if they are a fool-look at GWB or Steve Forbes.
What I see as the most productive use for the rest of my life is putting together some deals for redeveloping Texas oilfields, because we need oil for the transition. And I also see this as the best preparation for life after the peek. I'd much rather do this than hoard food and guns or other apocolyptic craziness. Its not very scientific, but I also believe that God wants us to love one another, to be kind and generous and "faithful stewards" of the Earth, so I try to live economicially and help my neighbors. And, the Buddah was right, desire is the basis of suffering.
The world will continue to allocate resources, including oil, to the highest bidder. imo, investments in us oil reserves are the most conservative way to prepare for high oil prices.
There are far too few critical questions. For instance, figure out, if I buy a tin of american corn in my supermarket, how much oil did it take to get that into my hands? Well, the oil price was probably at 50 - 60$ when it was made, and it costs me 3 NOK, or 0.50 USD. That puts some real bounds on how much oil was used to make it, and how much the price of a tin of corn will rise if the price of oil rises.
I've used that "bounds" idea also. FWIW, people sometimes throw around a single number like "it takes X oil Calories to grow and deliver 1 food Calorie." The problem is, when you multiply out for all the food now consumed, the oil number is irrational. The oil cost in a steak is higher than the market price for a steak. The total oil used to produce beef is higher than the total oil used for agriculrure, etc.
... bounds.
I wasn't suggesting a definitive analysis, just thinking that the price is a generous upper bound for the cost of the oil that went into making it. While there are things that work the other way, labour resources aren't free either, and there is tax... in short the real cost of the oil used to make is probably much lower. If an economist could correct or qualify this statement I would be grateful.
Bac! Bac! Bac! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Encana in shale gas? Bob, have you got some details on that?
You mean you weren't totally won over by the confident assurances that (to qoute):
???What I see is a carefully constructed article that is geared from the start towards one goal: telling the public that there are people who voice concerns, but there are equally those who dismiss those concerns. In the end, the one that was meant to be achieved, we are left with the idea that we just don't know. And there is no need to worry about things you don't know. Terrorism 1, Peak Oil 0.
That is how US media have covered, and still do at times, global warming. The result of that approach has been that countless Americans still think it's not a problem, or even a truth.
They ignore as long as they can, and when they feel that doesn't work any longer, the tactic of fabricating doubt is applied. And that works very well, they've had plenty of practice.
After the doubt has been established, and it's 50-50 at best, there is a subtle indication that among those that worry there are lunatics, some of whom utter words that would be bleeped out on TV, Kunstler's quote is not a random choice, the writer knew exactly what he was doing. And you don't want anything to do with people who say things like that. At the very least they must be godless.
And then it's no longer 50-50.
It's the same old same old:
Here are 5 experts who are concerned
Here are 5 who are unconcerned
Here are 2 folks who are REALLY concerend. One of them is a lawyer (me) and the other is a potty mouth (Kunstler.)
Average persons reads that and thinks, "mmm. . . interesting" and moves right along to crap their pants about some guy trying to carry toothpaste onto his commuter flight.
I guess I'm kinda happy that there's at least one person who can read
or whatever
and no, I'm not wrong about what I see in this article
and it bothers me to see what I see here on tod
praise for what runs counter to what the whole thing is about
it's too much like getting candy from a pedophile
or whatever
no intention to hurt or shock, it's not that
too many smart people (and there's tons here, and I appreciate the heebeegeebees out of y'all, I ain't worthy of licking the shoes of some of ya, and I know it )stop thinking and/or reading as soon as their pet peeve gets a mention in bleeping bloombergmountain
but the article does the exact opposite of what y'all here think it does
think back 10 years guys when you first got into warming, and wanted to tell the planet about it, the press looked just like this
and it killed the issue for a long time
yea the media know peak oil, and they have for a while
but they live off car ads
keeping up appearances is the only thing that makes sense from that point of view, you're being played
bla bla..... I digress
Now obviously I'm biased as I got my pic in the article but I still think the Rainwater article in Fortune was one of the few MSM articles that actually got some people off their asses. I know this because I STILL get email from people who say, "I read that fortune article about richard Rainwater and am now selling my home moving to the country, going solar, pulling my money out of the market, etc." I have never heard of anybody doing that as a result of any of the Peak Oil articles in the NY Times Magazine, WSJ, Bloomberg, Harpers, etc.
Why? Because in the Fortune article you had a freakin multi-billionaire friend of George W. Bush crapping his pants (figuritively speaking) about the issue. If reading that doesn't put the fear of God into you regarding Peak Oil, nothing will.
As far as what somebody said up top about the Bloomberg article being good because it doesn't scare people. WRONG. That was the whole freakin point. To keep people from getting scared doing anything rash like - (sweet jesus no!!!) - pull their money out of the market.
Why did the Fortune article work? Cause it scared the piss out of people. There is no way and I mean NO WAY you can come to understand these facts - even when presented in the most sober fashion possible - and not get scared.
So if the person you're telling doesn't freak out it means you didn't really communicate the reality situation. So you shouldn't be surprised when they don't understand the need to prepare themselves. And that's even if you believe in a more optimistic scenario akin to the Great Depression.
Best,
Matt
but it's still looking at a magician making all those young women at the conference disappear
and then you're left with what?
TreeHugger report with link to bill here. Way to go Arnold! You the GW Terminator man.
And the Yergin quote from the NY Times (above) about how E85 = I85. We're on a roll!
The aftertaste of this vintage is only slightly perturbing, and lasts a few minutes at most.
"You gotta love Kunstler"
No, you gotta' love him.
I gotta' ignore him.
Given that his only credentials consist of an absolutely virulent hatred of the United States, hatred of the American way of life right to the core of it's construction, and seeming rejection of any lifestyle or culture post 1200 A.D., I am not sure he has added a lot to the American discussion or acceptance of Peak Oil, except among a small band of Primitivist-deep green, deep peak anarchist dreamers, who see no hope of alternatives or mitagation simply because that risks committing the greatest of all possible evil sins, preserving anything remotely kin to a most Middle Ages culture.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
"Smile when you say that, pardner"....:-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Apuleius, he may have nostalgia for the 1890's manners, but I think he would have grave doubts about a culture that married to technology, after all they already were burning coal in steam engines and had gas lights! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Drivers can expect more gridlock, report says
But some argue for public transportation:
The basic principle remains: give 'em a road to drive on, and they'll drive. The only thing that works is less roads, because only that leads to less congestion. While it may be, or just seem, counter-intuitive, how does a professor miss all the literature out there? Carefully selected reading?
All the numbers I have seen on alpine transit indicate re-routing of traffic, notably after the closures at Mont Blanc (France/italy truck traffic increased by the coastal route to compensate).
This is an important question :
There is debate in France about the necessity of a new Lyon/Turin rail link. We (greens) see a justification as a freight line (rail freight plus intermodal, truck on train). This is based on the presumption that it will diminish truck traffic in the alpine tunnels.
www.bahnonline.ch/phpkit/include.php?path=content/news.php&contentid=9039&PHPKITSID=3edec170 6ca6eebc7704ab77dbae4127
Possible explanations: 1.) transports were shipped by rail in containers
2.) transports were delayed
3.) Other suppliers were found, which did not have to cross the alps.
I spent some time searching in the French version of the bahnonline.ch site, until I realised that they just used Google translation ! (Gotthard-Autobahn = autoroute de base de dieu!) Typical Swiss German arrogance eh!
In general, individuals are much more easily discouraged than businesses, so this news is quite surprising.
There is a saying which most traffic engineers know and accept: widening roads and highways to reduce congestion is like loosening your belt to solve a weight problem.
Think about that one.
Well, then why don't we put permanent lane blocks in the freeways in LA?
That will help congestion right?
Or maybe not.
Blocking lanes to reduce congestion is like tightening your belt to lose weight.
"The phenomemon of induced traffic works in reverse as well. When New York's West Side Highway collapsed in 1973, an NYDOT study showed that 93 percent of the car trips lost did not reappear elsewhere; people simply stopped driving. A similar result accompanied the destruction of San Francisco's Embarcadero Freeway in the 1989 earthquake. Citizens voted to remove the freeway entirely despite the apocalyptic warnings of traffic engineers. Surprisingly, a recent British study found that downtown road removals tend to boost local economies, while new roads lead to higher urban unemployment. So much for road-building as a way to spur the economy."
This study found that 20 percent to 60 percent of driving trips disappeared rather than materializing elsewhere. Imagine that!
Bottom line: removing roads DECREASES congestion just as building more roads INCREASES congestion. This has been proven time and time again. Remove it and they will disappear.
There is a plan to build a new motorway in my area (Lyon to Saint Etienne). Obviously, it will be redundant by the time it's completed (2020 at the earliest, there is major engineering involved).
This, despite the fact that car numbers on the existing motorway between the two cities have declined (slightly) in recent months -- too early to say they have peaked, but I think it's safe to say that by the time petrol reaches 2 euros per litre (currently about 1.25) then the traffic peak will be behind us.
There is no chance humans will evolve past this, and it appears we are incapable of learning our way out too.
Peak Oil nipping at your nose..."
Rat
Fear not. The gods of Demand and Supply shall provide us with all that we need as long as we don't cut and run. Stay the course my fellow lemmings. You have nothing to fear but cheerlessness itself. Be steadfast and resolute in accomplishment of your missions. You shall surely pass over the edge safely and honorably to your just and ever lasting rewards. God speed. Score well.
Excellent cartoon! The elite predators [bears, wolves?] on the right side are having the 'time of the lives' watching the ignorant lemmings prematurely end their lifetimes!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Found it here: http://www.stevecolgan.com/
As for the elites, the important thing is to "honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice for God and country". Where have we heard that recently? Jenna & sister just signed up for the Marines so they too can be one of the proud, the few, the hoodwinked. Yea right.
Yes, it will not even be any use to Ryanair who try to convince people that Saint Etienne is Lyon.
http://www.johnlocke.org/press_releases/2003092956.html
I guess Peak Oil news hasn't reached the University of North Carolina.
My proposal for the highway that goes by my small town is to make it narrower by expanding the shoulders for bicycle traffic. Ideally, I would like to see it depaved and turned into a dirt road. Those who can't handle that can move or choose not to visit this area. We have less services here than we had 50 years ago because the "convenience" of the wider highway has made it possible for people to drive their cars to other towns to do their shopping.
No further roads should be built or widened anywhere unless the purpose therein is to provide space for buses or other non automobile transit. Maintain or increase the misery factor in driving while at the same time providing alternatives for people. When I lived in Frankfurt, Germany, you had a choice, spend thirty minutes driving downtown and looking for a parking place or spend ten minutes getting downtown by subway. Those truly dedicated to the "freedom" of their automobiles had that choice. The rest of us, those who actually wanted to get some place quickly, cheaply, and safely, took the buses and the subways.
Jan also writes about peak oil issues, of course. Having been an oil insider for many years (he is the brother of energy analyst Trilby Lundberg), he firmly and absolutely believes peak oil is at hand. His polemics are, if anything, more dire than Kunstler.
http://www.baconsrebellion.com/Issues06/08-28/Bacon.php
This is good news (I know people will say when PO is in full, there won't be the resources)
and
I would have said "too much" on the asphalt rather than "enough" but still...
Well I guess things could have been worse than they are now - if you had to drive to go to the bathroom!
We have traffic of course but its the people trying to get here, or through here. Most of the people who live here just walk - after all that is the point of a town.
Oh yeah and you're a fool if you don't have a gun and keep it on you when common sense tells you to have it handy......
I've seen small towns, I've lived small towns, I really don't see how the "countryside" would be any better a place to live in the Collapse. Unless one wants to really hide out like Ishi did for years - even he eventually was captured, put on display in what was effectively a zoo, and died within a few years.
The town I call home has a population of less than 6000. I can cycle to work, year round in less than ten minutes. All the facilities are about a five minute ride from my home and this is true for everybody. I have never seen a traffic jam in a small town. I have seen a traffic jam between small towns and between cities and their satellite communities. Sharing the road with cars and trucks in a small town has been much less stressful for me than in the cities.
The self-sufficiency culture is also stronger in the small towns I've lived compared to the cities. Gardens and fruit trees abound and people actually use and preserve the harvest. We're also embedded in an agricultural area, so local produce and meat is easy to come by. Heck, I spent last evening converting a couple bushels of apples that my neighbour gave me into a year's supply of apple juice.
I've never felt like I needed a gun for protection. Not in a small town. Not in the downtown core of a major city. I like guns just fine (traditional flintlock long rifles being my favourites), and I wouldn't hesitate to use one to protect myself or my family. I've just never felt the need, not even a little.
I'm feeling luckier and luckier to be above the 49th parallel.
Mark (not really in Calgary anymore)
Sigh. Again, it's very hard for someone who hasn't spent a significant amount of time in the US to understand how hellish it is.
Studying PO, I've seen this sentence so often: "We use X barrels of oil for every barrel we find", the X ranging from 2 up to 9.
I think this X-figure is very important. So how many barrels of oil do we use for every barrel we find? At this moment?
This is just one number, my guess is it could range anywhere form 5 to 15 right now, depending on who's doing the counting.
BTW, you have a typical Dutch name, so I asume you are in Holland? I'm in Den Helder.
best,
lazy dutch!
In keeping with CR's philosophy, the article focuses mostly on ethanol's high cost, low mileage, and scarce availability.
Didn't find the article in the free area of the CR website, but they do have this rundown on fuel alternatives:
http://www.greenerchoices.org/...
So I go to have a light breakfast in town after reading RR's attempts at showing a misinformed reader the true energy return of the oil lifecycle versus the ethanol lifecycle. A well informed friend shows up, he works in the alternative energy field, has a radio show and somehow we start talking about biodiesel. He informs me that they get 3 to 4 to 1 energy return (lifecycle) for biodiesel and 7 to 8 to 1 if waste oil is used. I inform him that seems high because every hydrocarbon input is a loss of energy(fertilizer, water, machinery, refining(not much)), except for the solar absorbed by the biodiesel plants. I inform him that current return on ethanol is .25 approx., 1 btu in to get 1.25 out. I am informed these numbers I used are out of date, it's much higher.
There is alot of misinformation out there, IMHO. I asked where he got his numbers....a biodiesel book. Another aside was a conversation about reality. People didn't want to hear the true dimension of out future woes and I felt he was using rosy biodiesel numbers that will lead us to a deadend in terms of energy production, land management and food production.
What is the true return on the lifecycle of biodiesel?
I'm currently doing an initial research on biodiesel from algae. Oilgae is a good repository of many available ressources and technology.
The yield per acre is about 30 times the yield of any other field crops, that's the reason why I look forward into this.
There is two different options regarding the production of algae. One is to use raceway pond, developped by the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) up until 1996. The New Hampshire University has a group doing some research in this field.
The major difficulties has been producing algae in a cost efficient way. At the time it was 2 times the diesel cost. I wonder how much it has goes up in regards to increase in oil price.
What I try to seek is if the photobioreactor way could yield a fair amount of algae while being afforbable. In town, Roberval we have a long period of winter so I'm thinking of a greenhouse heated by annualized geo-solar technique
There is a company in the UK building the tubes needed to produce a steady amount of algae. It's called cellpharm tubular reactor
Here is a photo of what it looks like :
I have been asked by the general manager of our MRC (we could say county management organisation) if with 200 000$ I could manage to start a pilot projet for producing biodiesel from algae. That was 2 weeks ago. I already had contact with scientist from our provincial government and he led me to a doctor already doing great stuff regarding fibro cellulose ethanol. I on vacation this week so I will talk with him next week.
I hope that these links will provide you with some useful information.
I don't think given current technology, that a silver bullet to replace oil is going to be feasible. It will have to be silver BBs.
That said, Algae has the advantage over other crop types in that we can grow algae in areas unsuited for traditional crop types. The vast, uninhabited deserts make an ideal location for this type of production or possibly floating greenhouses built on similar technology as current rigs. Further Algae has the other advantage of not being a drain on arable lands. Attaining and providing nutrient rich water is as easy as moving it from the ocean in many cases or tapping into sewage. Can we afford to cover sections of the earth for our energy needs. I think yes, provided we choose the right types of sections.
Personally I kind of like the floating greenhouse rigs idea as the ocean water will be immediately available, the rigs can be built in areas of ocean where yearly sunlight has a high yield, and lastly, if the rigs were designed to take advantage of the wave/tidal action the ocean produces, the rigs could be self powered using tidal devices.
In the Designer Microbes section of the Plan B for Energy article, they quote J. Craig Venter, founder of Synthetic Genomics and the Vinod Khosla of microbial oil manufacture, saying
I just happen to have a picture right here.Overly optimistic?
Fly me to the moon, Craig!
Check it out.
Why not using solar directly?
No matter the "poor" efficiencies of PV or Stirling (from 15% to 40%) how does this compares to the whole intricate conversion chain for algae, corn, sugar cane, switchgrass & whatever else, PER SQUARE METER?
With the exercise of knowledge (soil science, plant breeding, appropriate selection and placement of cultivars) we are able to improve modestly on the gifts nature has spent deep time finetuning.
We can also profitably improve our own burning technologies and the institutional arrangements by which we exploit these gifts from nature. But it is laughable to think we can in a few decades develop superior systems to capture the daily income of solar energy than those nature offers.
Moreover, it is downright foolish to develop a dependence on systems, which require the availability of stored solar, for production and reproduction. Which is not to say that solar panels and wind machines and the like do not have a small role to play in some places.
Oh! Yeah?
Could you please give us the numbers of net energy collected PER ACRE for solar captors versus whatever biomass cultivation you see fit?
Plus, solar captors need only SURFACE not good agricultural land.
So for primary efficiency, PV or Stirling Dish win with efficiencies over 11%, and have lower end-to-end losses for final electric use. However biofuels are storable and more flexible for non-electric use. Initial resource costs are less with biofuels, but you need account for soil degradation from mineral and humus depletion and the opportunity cost of lost food production.
The net energy balance for the processes involved can, however, be problematic in that energy requirements for cellulose hydrolysis and distillation, must be lower than the energy in the output ethanol.
Although [methane] small-scale digesters are popularly used at both the farm and village levels, large-scale operations are still in need of considerable technical improvement and cost reduction, and thus require both microbial and engineering studies.
Photovoltaics are nice, and stirling even nicer, but we still need energy for storage.
Of course this point has to be solved but what is the COST of this versus jeopardizing FOOD PRODUCING land?
What is the expectable EROEI of biomass energy production?
We are still debating this it seems.
It is very difficult to argue on SEPARATE points without trying to model a sought for big picture (or preferably several).
Unfortunately nobody seems to have all of the skills, ressources and motivations for doing this.
P.S. I exclude coal and nuclear as VIABLE solutions, see my other posts.
It may be that PV Cells are better than algae at capting the sunlight (wich I doubt) but I can tell you that the price is ever increasing.
Where I come from, I live next to a huge hydro electric power station (well, actually a few hundred km) so PV cell dont even start to compare. Think of a PV cell as a small grain of sand and one hydro complex as a huge mountain.
Take a look :
Thats a 1 528 MW dam, we have over 34 000 MW of installed power to produce electricity. Of that number, only 600 MW is comming from coal/oil, 870 MW from gas and 675 from a CANDU nuclear reactor.
Do you think that in our place using solar power make sense?
What we need is not raw power, we need a liquid fuel. And the best liquid fuel for maintaining the rest of the infrastructure is biodiesel. The most productive form of life to produce biodiesel is algae.
Most of the installation will use solar energy for power, but no PV cells at all.
In a canyon by me, some want to build a dam that might produce 300+ MW, but would cost over 5 Billion to build. Is that a bargain? To say nothing of the fact that we have regular periods of dry years in California, when it is hot, dry, electrical demand is at its height, and there's little or no water behind the dams to produce electricity. The big crisis a few years ago had this as a major element. Even Washington state dams were dry, and you couldn't buy electicity from anywhere except at totally exhorbitant prices. Aluminum foundries in WA ran their generators and sold the electricity, shut down the plants, because the profit was so much better. The sun will always be there in a predictable manor (or else we're all dead anyway). Drought produce a catastrophic system-wide failure of hydro production lasting months or years, not days or weeks.
We have the most reliable electrical system in the world. Space heating is done mainly with electricity. We have not been touched by the last blackout (2 or 3 years ago).
Here is a picture of where are located the hydro systems.
and now a map of productive land in Canada
I just found this map and find it very cool :)
You can also see, if you zoom in on Quebec, there is a lake surounded by a green patch, if you zoom enough you will see the Roberval dot. The lake there is Lac Saint-Jean, it contains 31 Billon barrel of water. It's not the biggest lake in Quebec, but I live just in front of it.
Needless to say, peak water is a fantasy around here.
what I was trying to show is that many of the dam are built where almost no productive land is present, Even trees grow really dificultly. Quebec is a large province with lots of space.
P.S. A good friend was an exchange student in a town on Lac Saint-Jean in the late 1960's. She was studying French and loved it there.
Even I start to do some research on this for 2 reasons:
1st. If the project is picking up, I will use it to talk about peak oil in Quebec and Canada, in which almost no media is talking about in anyway.
2nd. I do not think it will replace oil in all it's application. Nothing will. But I do think that we could run some construction equipment and maybe some buses using that liquid fuel when the diesel wont be available.
I have no intent on running the civilisation, I have maybe some idea about running our small place. The construction equipment will be very usefull to build new living arrangement. Altough we are a small place (30 000 people in the county) we have lots of space and maybe we could welcome more. Building urban area that can foster people, workplace and food growing places is the ultimate goal.
The biodiesel here is only for getting that.
Also as for the energy needed, I have in tought annualized geo-solar because it need very less energy to heat in the winter and cool in the summer. I will also use bubble insulation for heating and cooling. This will help get the sunshine trough and keep the air warmer in winter and cooler in summer.
Altough we are facing shortage risk from diesel, we have in Quebec access to very large quantities of hydro electric power. We have only 1 or 2 coal plants I think and I dont think they run all the time. So producing biodiesel is also a way of keeping the maintenance machinery, equipment and trucks humming for maintenance of the power grid.
Also on a purely economical basis, we are deeply impacted here because of already high oil prices. Many sawmills are closing or on the verge of closing. The slumping of demand for structural wood from the US (resulting from the house slump) is lowering the price of wood.
So we are impacted both in the cost structure and in the revenue structure.
I have a friend owner of a oil distributor mainly for the forestry camp. They sell 45-50 million liter (~300 000 barrel) of diesel each year. For the whole region it amount to 200 million liter(1.2 million barrel) each year.
The impact on oil price if the whole region closes forestery would be not so high I think. But the local effect will be very hard and felt trough the economy. Because of this we will need to divert our work to producing energy (if it can be done) and building a new way of life.
I expect that it would take at least a big recession (maybe a depression) to get people on the new track. I dont think many people will do anything if that does not happen.
Something also impacting our economy is the slump in tourism we had this summer. Many went to the US where they offered dollar parity with the Canadian $ and the gas price refrained people in their spending.
Altough no one talks about a recession right now, I think that it will be reconized after the hunting season (hunting season is a big vacation season around here)
So I think (I'm doing more research on the subject to latter say I know) that biodiesel from algae might be part of the solution.
I will give 2 speaches at a conference in 3 week. Maybe you can attend if you understand french.
You will hear from it anyway.
I'm in Montreal as well.
.
A GM executive said a couple of weeks ago that the only thing limiting car sales in the Middle East was shipping constraints. We are reading similar stories about Venezuela. The WSJ had a front page story yesterday about the massive tar sands related boom in Calgary.
Net Oil Exports = Domestic Production - Domestic Consumption
Through May, 2006, production by the top 10 net oil exporters was declining at an annual rate of about 7% since December (EIA, crude + condensate), while their aggregate consumption is clearly growing rapidly, especially in the Middle East, where there are some strong demographic factors at work too.
I noticed that the Drudge Report had a headline this morning stating that the Pentagon (Rumsfeld?) predicted that Iran would have nukes within five years.
"E-85 is really I-85 -- it's about energy independence," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consultancy.
Energy Independence
I-85. Yeah, but this could be a problem...
Intersection of I-85 and I-285
Yesterday I drove through the lower section of Delta County. It's usually dotted with a few corn fields, mostly alfalfa, beans and some wheat.
This year it's all corn fields!
Not that we have an ethanol plant around here, but I guess the farmers figured the price of corn would be going up, and so planted accordingly.
Last night my nine yr old son & I were driving home and I stopped off to top off. He eagerly asked to help pump. As he pumped, I watched him enjoy the moment with Dad and I sadly pondered the likelihood of him repeating this routine with this children.
What the hell are we thinking?
Protestors attempt to shut down power plant
... but wait! It's not a nuclear plant... it's a COAL plant!
Last winter, coal-fired power produced 50% of the electricity consumed in the UK.
Not totally silly, if a bit unrealistic.
Coal plants are a disaster. Coal is the low-hanging energy fruit that is much beloved by people who don't understand that installing infrastructure designed to last fify years and produce a billion or so tons of CO2 just aint good thinking when we're near/at/past any number of climatic tipping points.
There are at least ten more under construction in the US. I wish somebody was protesting them.
Actually, the MSM is beginning to recognise peak oil, and the ad hominem attacks and negative stereotyping show that peak oil is beginning to gain real acceptance with folks
Then they laugh at you
... then they fight you ...
Then you win.
In the words of the wise man. Whatsisname. er er Robbie Williams.
"and then you die"
There have always been people concerned with population growth, and broadly Malthusian problems, but it is the binding between those and oil which is new, growing, and obvious to any new visitor.
I do actually think we have a lot of environmental and population related problems on this planet, but I think they have a longer time horizon and are less immediate and specific a problem than peak oil.
Nope, what makes us nuts is not the doomers amongst us, but just the nature of peak oil. It wouldn't matter if we all believed converting to wind power would allow the happy motoring lifestyle to continue in perpetuity, we'd still be depicted as nuts. Jeans and sandal-wearing tree-huggers.
How does that play to new visitors? Are there any new visitors in the room? Anybody?
A lot of people starve to death already. Is it really so radical to think that more might, as petroleum gets scarcer and more expensive? And shouldn't we talk about it?
Awhile back, I was reading about a "successful" new program that was helping poor people in Africa. The solution? Teaching subsistance farmers to use chemical fertilizers and giving them hybrid seeds.
The question is at hand is whether die off in the US is going to break open following PO.
As for the U.S....I think we are overpopulated, but could adjust. The question is if we can keep the population from continuing to increase (in other than Malthusian ways, I mean). The current UN stats are predicting a 45% increase in the U.S. population by 2050, which would not be good news.
Diamond then draws an explicit parallel with unrest in the U.S., and our inability to secure our borders against illegal immigration:
North Korea has avoided food riots simply by shooting anyone who exhibits such behavior. In Africa people simply starve in silence because it has become a way of life...and death. But they also starve in silence because all those with food also have guns, and they shoot to kill. But in the Western World, we think we are entitled to the good life and when it starts to disappear we will fight like hell, taking our wrath out on anyone and everyone. We will blame everyone and riot and burn when they cannot return things to the way they were.
wait, hold it right there, that's my home town!!!
(Conor Cruise O'Brien, On the Eve of the Millenium, 1994)
Good post, along with Darwinian's post too. The Titantic's sinking metaphor is often used in postings. The additional caveat I would add is that the lifeboat survivors had a short row to the other steamships that belatedly arrived on-scene. In a postPeak world: the lifeboat survivors will be ALONE metaphorically speaking--an extremely long row to the safe haven of shore.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
If you manage to find this reply in the maze of 'parents' and their descendants: here's another author who uses the lifeboat metaphor: Petti Linkola, the Finnish ecofascist:
.Life after the oil crash?
Yes, it is even likely built in the genes.
Seems to remember of something like this, I have to recall the links.
By the way (in response to Leanan), except for immigration and emigration, all factors that affect population growth are Malthusian: He wrote about positive checks to population (those that increase the death rate) but also preventive checks to population growth, i.e. those that diminish the birth rate. In later editions of his book he became somewhat more optimistic on the possible effectiveness of preventive checks.
A hundred years ago it made sense for the U.S. to encourage immigration, but given the "ecological footprint" of U.S. residents it seems to me to be folly to allow further immigration--building up long-term major problems in return for short-term (and questionable) economic benefits. It may be selfish for me to say, "Let's slam the door shut!" but I'm thinking of my grandchildren's welfare; increase in the U.S. population does not seem likely to enhance their prospects.
I'd like to see an official statement on population policy for the U.S., including a statement of what our optimum population range should be and whether further population growth is desirable. The great philosophers Plato and Aristotle both thought population policy was a key political issue and of utmost importance to public welfare. In this respect (largely due to political correctness) I think we have regressed during the past twenty-four hundred years.
Some unsolicited advice to interested parties (which is worth what you are paying for it):
Rising unemployment is a key reason to adjust your lifestyle now so that you can live on 50% of your current income (I was forced to do it in 1986).
As I said before, it's kind of ruthless, but you need to be ready to volunteer for salary cuts and/or be willing to take a more challenging job for the same money. Reducing your expenses gives you much more flexibility.
We are quickly headed into a period of probably near-permanent labor surplus. You can't fight market forces. The faster that you adjust to the new realities, the better off you and your family will be.
"Personal saving -- DPI (Disposable Personal Income) less personal outlays -- was a negative $83.5 billion in July, compared with a negative $67.6 billion in June. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 0.9 percent in July, compared with a negative 0.7 percent in June. Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods."
You're killin' me, man. My doomerocity coefficient was already high enough today, and I buy completely what you're saying.
<problem type="personal">
But how do I get CinCFam (Commander in Chief - Family) to believe the wisdom of that choice?
</problem>
BTW, would you have time to entertain an email from me at your aol account?
Ed
Ah yes, Clotho, Lachesis, and Atropis. The Fates.
On the other hand, reason tells us that market forces are guided by market rules as found in laws, regulations, precedents, conventions, customs, practices. In some cases, the Hell's Angels make the rules. In most, it is legitimate social institutions: broadly speakly, government.
Can market rules change? They have. Can they change again? Yes.
Markets existed long before capitalism, which is a particular system characterised by an intrinsic need for growth. Markets will exist post capitalism, even if attempts to suppress this deeply rooted social mechanism are again made, such as was the case in the failed Soviet model.
The key is to shape markets to serve the welfare of people, a welfare obviously tied to the health of the biosphere. Obvious at least to all but the most obtuse.
Markets organized on a capitalist model have found legitimacy in this system's ability to deliver on its promise of much for most. To deliver on this promise, capitalism needs to function, and to function it needs growth. The intelligence of our species has nourished this needed growth, but it is constructed from the continued expansion of the supply of energy and the continued improvement in the quality of the energy we exploit.
Now the quantity and the quality of energy are in decline. And our intelligence is not great enough to expand our leverage of this declining resource at a rate which outruns the decline.
Lovers of capitalism can perhaps say au revoir, in the hope that fusion, or some other miracle, will in some future time provide a foundation on which the system can be rebuilt. Will our progeny, given the choice, even want to do so?
For the moment the question is not whether the decline in the quantity and quality of available energy will lay waste to civilization, but whether the impending collapse of capitalism will do so?
That's up to you and me. The Fates are imaginary.
He's got unemployment at 12% if we figure back in the discouraged workers and various other marginal changes they've engineered into this number.
Of course Dieoff will eventually break out in the US: at some future tipping point precipitated by exponential positive feedback combined with systemic infrastructure collapse. What, How, When, Where is the difficult part to determine, but the WHY has been explained countless times by experts and laymen alike. Detritus Entropy is a cruel Master, Genetically-induced violence is a cruel Mistress.
Our best hope lies in cooperation & mitigation, real efforts at minimizing violence & population, and simplification & biosolar Powerup. Time will tell how effective we are at maximizing peaceful mortality vs. violent mortality--the choice is ours.
Currently, 0.7% of US population is actively engaged in agriculture and fishing [CIA Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html] The best way to mitigate postPeak violence is to figure out the optimal process for 60-75% of us to become fulltime permaculturists. The 1500 mile salad, the 6,000 mile banana, and the 10,000 mile Alaskan King Crab dinner are not long for this world.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Here ya go Tate.
Nothing But Flowers
By the Talking Heads
Here we stand
Like an Adam and an Eve
Waterfalls
The Garden of Eden
Two fools in love
So beautiful and strong
The birds in the trees
Are smiling upon them
From the age of the dinosaurs
Cars have run on gasoline
Where, where have they gone?
Now, it's nothing but flowers
There was a factory
Now there are mountains and rivers
you got it, you got it
We caught a rattlesnake
Now we got something for dinner
we got it, we got it
There was a shopping mall
Now it's all covered with flowers
you've got it, you've got it
If this is paradise
I wish I had a lawnmower
you've got it, you've got it
Years ago
I was an angry young man
I'd pretend
That I was a billboard
Standing tall
By the side of the road
I fell in love
With a beautiful highway
This used to be real estate
Now it's only fields and trees
Where, where is the town
Now, it's nothing but flowers
The highways and cars
Were sacrificed for agriculture
I thought that we'd start over
But I guess I was wrong
Once there were parking lots
Now it's a peaceful oasis
you got it, you got it
This was a Pizza Hut
Now it's all covered with daisies
you got it, you got it
I miss the honky tonks,
Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it
And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention
you got it, you got it
I dream of cherry pies,
Candy bars, and chocolate chip cookies
you got it, you got it
We used to microwave
Now we just eat nuts and berries
you got it, you got it
This was a discount store,
Now it's turned into a cornfield
you got it, you got it
Don't leave me stranded here
I can't get used to this lifestyle
-----
Ya, You got it, You Got It.
I nominate this for the
"Post Peak Oil, Looking Back longingly" anthem.
I can't get used to this lifestyle...
JC