DrumBeat: August 31, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 31, 2006 - 9:11am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Peak Oil Forecasters Win Converts on Wall Street to $200 Crude
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- On a sweltering Tuesday in mid-July, in the fields outside Pisa, Italy, Willem Kadijk scribbles notes as a ragtag troupe of doomsayers predict the end of the Oil Age.With his shaved head, jeans and sandals, Kadijk, 48, blends into a crowd gathered under a white tent to hear of the coming calamity. The death of cheap, abundant crude, the forecasters warn, might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.
That's not the prophecy of some apocalyptic cult. Kadijk, a hedge fund adviser, had flown from Amsterdam to attend a conference on a geologic theory known as peak oil.
Will the End of Oil Be the End Of Food?
American agriculture is fatally dependent on oil. A few forward-thinking farmers are trying to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
PODCAST: The Nuclear Option. Popular Mechanics on the pros and cons of going nuclear.
Tom Whipple on The Peak Oil Crisis: Labor Day 2006.
BP may resume pipeline production soon
Chad oil tax row 'not asset grab'
Western auto execs woo newly rich Russians
Booming economy fuels Muscovites’ taste for conspicuous consumption
Analysts: Venezuela move hurts profits
Cash-strapped Cambodia eyes black gold
US oil giant Chevron is poised to prove Cambodia is sitting on oil reserves worth $1 billion annually.
Absence of an ill wind blows some good
GLOBAL warming's failure so far to produce a repeat of last year's serial hurricane assault and battery of the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico is the swing factor in the suddenly soft price of oil.
Public has to make solid energy choices, Lugar says
U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar acknowledges that production represents only half of the energy crisis equation."We want our SUVs despite all the talk about the mileage isn't so great," the Indiana Republican said during an energy summit he co-sponsored with Purdue University Tuesday.
[Update by Leanan on 08/31/06 at 10:00 AM EDT]
Nigeria: Kerosene Scarcity - What the People Say
Pakistan’s oil demand to double in 10 years
China nomads on energy's cutting edge. Well, I guess this explains the silicon shortage:
One day last year, Sitkan and her husband were called to a meeting where 100 villagers waiting for a transmission line learned of an alternative to burning coal. After government subsidies, 500 yuan - a tenth of what Sitkan makes each year selling sheep's wool and meat - buys a photovoltaic solar unit that would provide enough electricity to power a small heater, a radio, a television, or a couple of light bulbs."Nearly everybody bought one," says Sitkan, a seminomadic shepherd who treks a well-traveled route each year with her family, 200 sheep, and a few cows.
BBC Radio 4 series - Driven By Oil. A four-part series about peak oil, starting Monday at 9am (UK time).



Why would anyone think that those elected by an unimformed populace be any smarter or more informed than those who elected him or her.
Ron Patterson
like peak oil?
conspiracy theory nitwits? are my wits nits? or is your brain on the shits?
I enjoy your posts on oil, I don't enjoy anyones post on conspiracy theories here on tod. It's not the right place. Just keep in mind you post ( a lot) on a site that's considered by most to be on the fringe. in the eyes of most you are a conspiracy theory nitwit. I don't think you are but I do think you should pull back and try for some new perspective.
The fact that posters do think it is appropriate to toss any wild paranoid plot into any thread sure does make it look like one though.
It is so small it doesn't exist. (yes, we have ours sects)
Through August 2006 - What Are Our Accomplishments!?
I think Jack and myself have settled ourselves on being extremely settled.
We duggs ourselves a pitt and we're gonna defend it. I got the big money on that. what's the big money on that? We ain't stupid. You can fly, butcha can't eat it!
You didn't on both accounts but that just highlights your ignorance on the subject. Bush couldn't blow up anything. His job is to cover-up who actually did it...
==AC
==AC
I know, I know. I lost my decoder ring a few months ago and I can't follow any of the good plots any more.
Please fill me in on the Council of Foriegn Relations one again. Just this once. My curiousity is killing me.
Buy a couple dozen boxes of Cracker Jacks and you'll find one inside. I've got three of them now so I know at least three times more than you.
I'm not going to tell you about the CFR if you lost your "ring". What's the point you couldn't decipher what I was saying anyway...
==AC
Whhat? Whaaaaa? Huh...Wha.Whaat? What are you fucking insane? Did I just hear that? Hello?
What else are you going to apologize for? Pol Pot? Boy George? You are a fucking nutcake. Don't ever try to apologize for my behavior again. I own my behavior. Not you. Control yourself.
Or as we say on TOD...Cheers.
That's what I mean that "they are not calling the shots". Bush and co, are nothing but representatives of these groups. As such they act as errand boys, but mostly as PR. As such their ability to follow an agenda of their own is very limited. It is akin to telling your employer that from now on you will do whatever you want to, instead of whatever is wanted from you and still wait for your next paycheck...
Obviously, I'm going to vote for number 4 because I put so much energy into wording it.
Is there not a possibility, --a 1% possibility?-- that GW Bush and Dick Cheney (and their neocon inner circle) actually are formulating US policy all by themselves because of the way they were "grewed up" by their parents? Is it not remotely possible that GW Bush truly beleives he is a superior being cause his "Daddy" taught him that special people don't go to Vietnam but instead "serve" by boozing it up in the National Guard? That the lesser persons are the ones that make "the ultimate sacrifice"? And if you were a young GW Bush, why would that world view not be an appealing one? Hell, it sure beats the alternatives.
Is it not remotely possible that the minions of the elite; your Yergins and your Cato Institute pundits for example, actually believe the nonsense they spout out because they were "educated" to think that way? They are not knowingly evil? They actually believe in that which they blather out?
Is not remotely possible that Peak Oil believers actually believe the nonsense they spout out because they were "educated" in physics, chemistry and scientific thought patterns? Or is it that Peak Oilers are part of a vast looney conspiracy?
Well how about it? Do you feel YOU are part of some vast conspiracy? Do you?
And if not, why should "they"?
Just think about it.
No need to rush to judgment.
Actually the propagated idea that those frontmen and women are the de facto the people in charge is a key part of the brainwashing machine and that's why I am resisting it so much. If things go really bad, Bush and his crew will be changed with some others, the public will finally get its scapegoat, while in the end nothing fundamentally will be changed.
==AC
~ H. L. Mencken (1880-1956) American Journalist, Editor, Essayist, Linguist, Lexicographer, and Critic Source: quoted in New York Times Magazine, 9 August 1964
It does NOT take a conspiracy to create all the nasty deeds we can witness or strongly suspect.
Just bunchs of individuals and groups with base motivations which act in loose tacit coordination while still competing between themselves can give the illusion of a SINGLE goal seeking "evil entity".
This is our "monkey brain" penchant for identifying agency behind seemingly purposeful events.
It is much easier to think about a single anthropomorphic "will" than to ponder the effects of interacting trends in a more intricate model but this introduce severe PARANOID distortions in the outcomes.
Actually this "distributed evil" is MUCH WORSE than a conspiracy because it cannot be rooted out.
Maybe there is a little more to it than "just a bunch of individuals".
Suppose you were a Professor of Economics at Yale. (Well maybe not this guy on the right because at least he admits that GW may be responsible for larger hurricanes although he leans against that notion. Click on his picture to read his pdf paper.)
And you are getting a pretty nice paycheck because after all it is "Yale" and most of the people who go to your school can afford to go there without worrying about the "price" of admission.
So what are you going to preach to them? You're going to preach what you think they want to hear (or more to the point what their Mumsy & Old Man want them to hear). They are happy with the Darwinian, Survival of the Economic Superiors Theory that you dish out to them and you are happy with the paycheck and perks. A very cozy relation. Year after year.
Then there are the few wanna-be-rich and talented Mr. Ripley's in your class. They are smart. They will never be super rich. Wrong blood you know. But they will grow up to be the Yergins and Cato Institute wizards of society. They will be the minions to the elites. They will soak up what you preach and dish it back to the elites later on in order to re-validate that which they learned at alma matta. Again, that is going to be a very cozy relation for all involved.
Next, you step down the rungs of society and look at some slob of an engineering professor at MIT. Who are his students and what is he going to teach them --assuming he wants tenure and his cozy niche in society?
So you see that there is a built-in compact in our eductional "institutions". It perpetuates the system. It's not "just" a bunch of accidentally random individuals. It's got history. It's got roots. It is a living and self-perpetuating bio system.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arur.i7moHMs&refer=exclusive
You gotta love Kunstler. This has to be one of the most mainstream looks at what peak oil entails. I'm glad they pointed out the fallacy in believing the tar sands will save us.
Any predictions on oil prices today?
Well, something is causing gas prices to drop, so this might be it. The price per gallon in local stations has dropped as much as $.18 in the last month, or so.
This is what makes it so difficult to explain the seriousness of the situation to non-Peak Oil aware people. They look around, see lower gas prices, and assume that everything will eventually be ok and the happy free-motoring lifestyle that we all know and love will continue in perpetuity.
They don't have to do anything. The Invisible Hand can knock down prices all on its own with mere expectorations (err... expectations) regarding demand destruction.
"Price" is a human-generated noise signal. It need not have anything to do with physical reality. It is all about how we humans fool ourselves into believing one thing or another. And fools we certainly are.
Garage sales in the rich quarters.
Opportunity to live above my station at fleamarket prices...
Btw, early blight turned my potato field into a wasteland... lucky for us that we chose a resistant variety, so the nodules are mostly OK.