I wrote on Thursday: "All crude oil is crude oil and everything else is something else."

Oil CEO replied:

Hahaha, that's what I though, too. What's condensate, then? Of course, I know now. As Axl Rose once said, "Welcome to the jungle."

Well, I still stand by my statement. I am forced to mix condensate with my crude because the EIA does. All their data for individual nations is "crude + condensate". I simply have no choice in the matter.

But the question remains; why does the EIA mix crude oil and concentrate together. Well, I must confess I really do not know but I believe it is because that is really what happens. That is, condensate is just dumped in with the crude and the two are refined together, producing whatever motor fuels, and other petrol products that comes out.

But just because I am forced to mix my crude and concentrate when I am trying to glean the peak form all the data available, such as it is, that still doesn't mean that I must mix products from the corn field or cane field with it.  And I am not going to mix palm oil or canola oil with it either. And I sure as hell am not going to mix pressurized bottled gas with my crude oil.

Peak oil will peak when crude oil peaks, not when palm oil or butane peaks. And when crude oil peaks it will mean the peak of all crude oil, whether it comes from the Alberta Tar Sands, the Orinoco Bitumen, the Arctic or the deep-water continental shelf. All crude oil is crude oil and it doesn't matter where it comes form.

Thank goodness the EIA does mix all crude oil together when figuring crude + condensate. As far as the EIA is concerned, there is no such thing as "unconventional crude". So all we really have to do is use those numbers. Not that they are accurate because they are not. The EIA constantly over reports, but not nearly as much as the IEA. The EIA is reporting Nigeria down by 325,000 bp/d from their high last December. But Nigeria itself is reporting numbers twice that amount.

But that is the best data we have. And mixing alcohol, vegetable oil and bottled gas with our data just does not make any sense. It only adds an unnecessary confusion factor to the mix.

I know I have thrashed this same straw for weeks now so I will let up for awhile, unless of course someone else brings it up.

An industry publication claims OPEC thinks by 2050, the value of a barrel of oil will be zero, with oil completely replaced by biofuels. (Is really fear of biofuels, though - or acknowledgement of peak oil?)

No, those guys really do fear alternative fuels. They bought into that silly idea right from the start. Kuwaiti officials have made statements in the past that they need to produce all the oil they can now before it is replaced with something else. Also that is the reason Saudi (up to recently) has tried to keep prices low. They were afraid something cheaper might replace oil and they would be left with all that worthless black goo.

You guys must understand that even the average US public has bought into this idea for years. "The stone age did not end because they run out of stones." Remember that one? And the OPEC countries bought the entire concept hook, line and sinker.  

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-08/asop-sia072806.php

... one of those things that might be worse than we hoped, but better than we feared.

Chinese developers unveiled the world's first full-permanent magnetic levitation (Maglev) wind power generator at the Wind Power Asia Exhibition 2006 held June 28 in Beijing, according to Xinhua News. Regarded as a key breakthrough in the evolution of global wind power technology--and a notable advance in independent intellectual property rights in China--the generator was jointly developed by Guangzhou Energy Research Institute under China's Academy of Sciences and by Guangzhou Zhongke Hengyuan Energy Science & Technology Co., Ltd.

The Maglev generator is expected to boost wind energy generating capacity by as much as 20 percent over traditional wind turbines. This would effectively cut the operational expenses of wind farms by up to half, keeping the overall cost of wind power under 0.4 yuan ($US 5 cents), according to Guokun Li, the chief scientific developer of the new technology. Further, the Maglev is able to utilize winds with starting speeds as low as 1.5 meters per second (m/s), and cut-in speeds of 3 m/s, the chief of Zhongke Energy was quoted as saying at the exhibition. When compared with the operational hours of existing wind turbines, the new technology will add an additional 1,000 hours of operation annually to wind power plants in areas with an average wind speed of 3 m/s.
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4217
=====

INTERVIEW - India hopes to double wind power generation by 2007
http://in.news.yahoo.com/060802/137/66cwc.html

Something strange going on here in Lithuania -- the local refinery, Mazheikiu Nafta, has been having problems getting oil from Russia through the Druzhba pipeline, since about July 24. The route is Samara - Bryansk - Polotsk - Mazheikiai. I understand that on or around July 29 there was supposedly an accident near Bryansk that severely reduced the throughput of crude, but that doesn't explain the interruption in deliveries about five days prior.

The Mazheikiu Nafta refinery (last I heard, anyway) is working at its lowest possible operating range, about 14,000 tons per day, using crude delivered by tanker to the offshore terminal at Butinge.

Okay, since I haven't been reading TOD for some time, here's my idea / question: is this a data point that supports westexas / Khebab's contention that Russian exports are beginning to decline? I can think of other places the Russian crude might be going (Ventspil in Latvia? increased domestic consumption? and others), but if anyone can offer some insight, I'd appreciate it.

The oil price hike from 1973 to the mid-80s was caused by an artificial scarcity, as OPEC achieved a consistent restraint to production. Likewise, the present high oil price is caused by sustained adherence to OPEC agreed production cutbacks in the late 1990s. Thus, it is also expected that the oil price will once again decline from $27 to the low $20s until 2020. This prediction lies well in the middle of the $17-$30 stemming from eight other recent international forecasts.

The reason why it is unlikely that the long term trend will deviate much from this price is that high real prices deter consumption and encourage the development of other sources of oil and non-oil energy supplies. Likewise, persistently low prices will have the opposite effects.
Page 122

At $40 a barrel (less than one-third above the current world price), shale oil can supply oil for the next 250 years at current consumption. And all in all there is oil enough to cover our total energy consumption for the next 5000 years.
Page 135

Perhaps the OPEC members have been reading Lomborg also and that is why they fear their oil will soon be obsolete.

To think that because the US is having an economic slowdown that oil prices will come down is, I think, incorrect.

I wouldn't bet on that, in fact I'd bet just the opposite. The US is such a lynch pin in the global economy, as it is currently structured, a recession here would definitely have an impact on demand across the planet. It might not collapse prices as it did in the mid-80s, but it would certainly bring them down significantly for the short-term.

The Vinod Khosla thread is kind of old, so I hope it's OK to post this here. For those who wondered about Mr. Khosla's motives, Daniel Weintraub from The Sacramento Bee explains:

Direct democracy in California is becoming the latest hot investment for venture capitalists looking to merge their societal goals with a good return on their money.
By backing ballot measures tailored to promote their personal and financial interests, investors can quickly change public policy and make a buck at the same time.

With Proposition 87, the link between public policy and potential profit is much clearer, especially when it comes to Khosla.

Khosla defends himself:

"Just because I could benefit from it, doesn't make it wrong," he said. "This is the right thing to do, for a lot of reasons."

http://www.sacbee.com/content/opinion/story/14286307p-15102830c.html

http://www.itconversations.com/shows/detail786.html

The book is good though, if you want to follow up on that talk.

How about an IPO for "Profoundly Local Airlines" using Solar Powered (thin flexible panels) Helium Dirigibles.  

IMHO, The Rat Race will be won by the Turtle after all.

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 5, 2006
Filed at 2:40 p.m. ET

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- The Taiwanese government said early Sunday that it was breaking off diplomatic relations with Chad just hours before a planned trip by Taiwan's premier to the central African country.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Michel Lu said Chad was under pressure from China to end its relations with Taiwan, so the island's leaders made the break before Chad could move on its own.

He charged that China had been using its status as a member of the U.N. Security Council and its ability to influence events in the neighboring African nation of Sudan to persuade Chad to cut ties.

He did not offer details. Taiwanese Premier Su Tseng-chang was scheduled to leave for Chad on Sunday but the trip was canceled, Lu said.

In Chad, government spokesman Hourmadji Moussa Doumgor said he had no immediate comment.

Taiwan split from China during civil war in 1949 but China considers the island a part of its territory.

In recent decades Taiwan has been fighting an effort by Beijing to reduce the breakaway republic's number of diplomatic allies.

China now is focusing its pressure on Africa, using its economic power to offer lucrative aid, trade and investment deals in exchange for oil, raw materials and diplomatic support. Chad began pumping oil in 2003 and exported about 133 million barrels in its first two years.

Only 24 nations now have full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Most are small and impoverished countries in Africa, the Pacific and Latin America.

Taiwan has been one of Chad's major foreign allies, helping to develop its infrastructure and offering to assist in expanding its oil industry. Taiwanese Foreign Minister James Huang met with Chad's leaders in N'Djamena last month to try to cement relations.

Partial repost of article linked below:
---------------------
Screaming "Traitors!", dozens of leftist protesters blocked the entrance of the electoral court after its judges announced their decision on Saturday.

"If there is no solution, there'll be revolution," they shouted.
---------------------

The Mexican election commisssion has ordered only a partial recount of ballots.

-------------
In a Solomonic decision, the seven justices of Mexico's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (known as the Trife) cut the baby of democracy in half. In doing so, they added more uncertainty and drama to an already tense crisis.

The messiest scenario will come if this sample of 11,000 precincts shows a shift averaging more than two or three votes per precinct toward López Obrador. If so, the national clamor for a full recount will boil over into a national rebellion. The court will have to either reconsider the matter of a full or larger recount or the post-electoral conflict will move from the courts to the streets and highways of Mexico.

López Obrador, whose supporters have camped out blockading Paseo de la Reforma and other important streets in the center of Mexico City for the past week, has called his people to the Zocalo - the gigantic "town square" of the nation - at 7 p.m. tonight to offer his response to the tribunal's decision. There, history may find the baby of democracy is not willing to be cut in half and is ready to fight like never before to survive.
-----------------------
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/story/2006/8/5/142225/7442

------------
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico ramped up security at its international airport, power plants and oil refineries on Friday, as leftists challenging a tight presidential election result threatened to intensify crippling protests.
------------------
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2275380

Let's not forget the megalopolis of Mexico city takes enormous amounts of energy because of the requirement of transporting goods, water, etc UPHILL.

From Wikipedia:
------------------
It is located in the Valley of Mexico (Valle de México), a large valley in the high plateaus (altiplano) at the center of Mexico, about 2,240 meters (7,349 feet) above sea-level, surrounded on most sides by volcanoes towering at 4,000 to 5,500 meters (13,000 to 18,000 feet) above sea-level.
-----------------

I sure hope with Cantarell depleting, PEMEX needing bigtime funds to explore, combined with the Mexican standoff that a peaceful solution for all can be found.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

It is fascinating to consider the possible effect upon the Mexican election outcome if the illegals in the US and those with dual MEX-US citizenship had voted.  I believe that most would have voted for AMLO: The illegals in the US must miss their families terribly--they would have voted for hoped-for future economic conditions that would have re-united them in a vibrant Mexican economy.

-------------------------
Eighty-seven percent of all votes from abroad arrived from the United States _ 28,335 votes out of 35,763 ballots. Those voters in the United States who requested absentee ballots posted an impressive 79 percent turnout. But even so, they were not enough to make a difference in the outcome, as some commentators had feared. Others believe the foreign vote was intentionally restricted to keep voters living abroad from being a deciding factor.

Still, it's disturbing that the Mexican vote from abroad didn't pack a bigger wallop.  It is even more worrisome in light of the fact the that 11 million Mexican nationals in the United States need representation somewhere since they can't vote for representatives where they live.
------------------------------------
http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/9883

---------------------
Although 33,111 absentee ballots were cast, the official count was 32,632, due to electoral officials annulling 479 ballots for irregularities. Of ballots cast, 28,335 came from the United States - home to some 9 million Mexican expatriates.

"Most of the people we're talking about are illegal immigrants," Palacios said. "It's not a priority. Even being legal, I wouldn't go back to Mexico just to get the card either."

Tucsonan Florencio Zaragoza, a 57-year-old magazine publisher, said others were put off by the $9 fee to send their ballot by registered mail. The fee effectively acted as a poll tax, Zaragoza said.

"It's free to vote in Mexico," he said. "Why should we have to pay to vote here?"

Calderon won the absentee vote, receiving 58 percent of the ballots that arrived from other countries. Lopez Obrador captured 34 percent of the absentee ballots.
--------------------------------
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/local/20443.php

My guess is that most of these valid absentee ballots were from wealthy Mex expats who have a vested interest in voting for Calderon-- by excluding most illegals from voting with a pre-designed program of silence and omission --it indirectly skews the results to Calderon's advantage.

Unfortunately, most US illegals are too busy struggling just to get by to stay informed on what is happening down south, much less having spare time and money to register, vote, and pay the 'poll tax'.  As mentioned before, remittances sent South is a tremendous boon to the Mex. elite to retain the status quo.

Sadly, it seems to be a system optimally designed to oppress the poor until the stress builds where all hell breaks loose.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Turkey intends to build a dam on the Tigris:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5249086.stm

Right on the border with Iraq...

Nature does not build spiderwebs of supply chains like us detritovores-- it favors extremely tight feedback loops to maintain relative ecosystem equilibrium.  If an animal cannot swim, fly, crawl, slither, slime to its energy sources in time, it quickly dies.

After the first discoveries of oil, it was much easier to move the people nearer these energy sources-- recall all the emigration to the US since the first oil well in Pennsylvania in 1850s-- the detritus fiesta was just getting started.

Then technology advanced whereby it was more desirable to ship the energy long distances; build a spiderweb instead of concentrating people near the energy sources they deem of most value.  Now we have supply chains that are global in scope, and national electrical grids.

Imagine instead if detritovores had resisted building supply chains and followed the energy sources: Ghawar would be surrounded by the largest cities on the planet and so on downward in decreasing oilfield size.  Most of the rest of the world would already be composed of numerous biosolar habitats with corresponding natural feedback loops to restrain their numbers; they would have valued Mongo Nuts over using the Black Swamp.

Instead, our global reliance upon the distributive spiderwebs help insure that we will all go down together in full Tainterian collapse.  Recall my recent posting on Brazil's desire to build 84 dams: no concern for the last of the 'Mongo Nut' biosolar cultures in the Amazon and their ecosystem.  Sadly, this has happened to countless cultures worldwide-- their survival knowledge is mostly lost to antiquity.

When the inevitable postPeak detritus inflection point arrives to the various habitats around the globe their ability to shift to a lower gain lifestyle will be severely hampered by this prior spiderweb investment.  Proper Foundation planning can offer knowledge and assert leveraged forces of predictive collapse and directed decline to help smooth this transition and minimize violence.  Basically, imagine the HELP advice of fellow TODer Westexas implemented on a global scale.

For example: supercomputer analysis of Cascadia can provide a roadmap to minimize Overshoot effects and provide the immigration cutoff point whereby Earthmarines need to preclude further invasion by establishing defensive buffer zones.  Then the US Southwest can rapidly decline to sustainability at the even lower gain lifestyle.  I would expect towns directly along the Colorado River to be the most postPeak viable as the spiderwebs collapse.  Consider that the Havasupai have lived for generations along the Colorado.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

"Stop Fueling the War Machine: Gas Station Takeovers!"

The operation: Bike up to pumps, wrap a pink trash bag around the handle and prevent customers from filling up -- for a minute or two. Sarah Finken would lead chants with her megaphone while others would wave banners. Tiffany Coleman laid out the ground rules. "Be nice to people. Block the pump with your bike but do not get confrontational. If they [customers] get anything more than verbal with you, leave."

The reaction should come as no surprise.
http://www.pitch.com/Issues/2006-08-03/news/strip.html

Mr Howard says rising petrol costs are fundamentally caused by the price of crude oil and an individual country can only have a small influence.

He says there is limited scope for bio-fuels to have an impact and has played down the potential for relief targeting regional areas or excise changes.

Mr Howard says he hopes petrol prices could fall to about $1.15 a litre, but he has warned the era of very low petrol prices is over.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200608/s1707357.htm

I think the choice of words is interesting. Without directly using the words "peak oil", my impression on hearing this on the radio was that the government is well aware of the situation.

Perhaps it's just that they dare not speak it's name.

It'll be interesting to hear the result of the Australian Senate inquiry in September.

A deadly combination of heat and drought is slowly wreaking a trail of devastation across much of the globe, and the full extend of this scourge will only be felt as winter nears.......

Imagine a world when peak oil meets peak grain and peak water at a confluence called peak mayhem?

http://www.counterbias.com/710.html