DrumBeat: August 6, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 6, 2006 - 9:10am
Topic: Miscellaneous
From Juan Cole: One Ring to Rule Them.
I've had a message from a European reader that leads me to consider a Peak Oil Theory of the US-Israeli war on Lebanon (and by proxy on Iran). I say, "consider" the "theory" because this is a thought experiment. I put it on the table to see if it can be knocked down, the way you would preliminary hypotheses in a science experiment.
Media attacked for 'climate porn':
Coverage breaks down, they concluded, into several distinct areas, including:Could apply to peak oil, too, huh?* Alarmism, characterised by images and words of catastrophe
* Settlerdom, in which "common sense" is used to argue against the scientific consensus
* Rhetorical scepticism, which argues the science is bad and the dangers hyped
* Techno-optimism, the argument that technology can solve the problem
Global Warming Could Slam Food Supply
Suppose the dinner on your table last night had cost 20 times what it did? Or 50 times as much?Scientists say global warming very likely has something like that in store in the coming decades.
War could trigger oil crisis, warns EIU
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has warned that if Iran were to become involved in the current Israeli-Lebanese conflict, the results could be “catastrophic” for the world’s oil market.
Gazprom's huge Venezuela gas deal alarms US
Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas company, is risking a diplomatic row with the United States over a mooted multibillion-dollar pipeline investment in Venezuela.The Russian gas giant is close to a deal on the project, according to Venezuela's firebrand President, Hugo Chavez, who has led opposition to US influence in Latin America.
U.K.: Firms face record power bills
Facing energy crisis, Chile looks at building dams
Gulf states struggle to boost spare oil output
Abu Dhabi: Gulf oil producers are struggling to expand their spare crude output capacity to meet surging global demand and their plans are blocked by manpower shortages, security factors and their ageing oil reservoirs, according to the World Bank.
Lebanon: Fneish denies reports of impending fuel shortage
BEIRUT: Energy Minister Mohammad Fneish's office denied Wednesday that the country is facing a chronic fuel shortage, even as thousands of motorists fearing a crisis converged on gas stations to fill their tanks before supplies dried up.Officials from the United Nations have said that there is an "acute fuel crisis" in Lebanon with only two to three days of supplies left owing the Israel's blockade of the country and attacks on gas stations.
"The UN figures are wrong," Ali Berro, an adviser to Fneish, told Agence France Presse.
The state has so far received 74,108 applications for an allotment of 75,000 decals permitting hybrid owners to drive solo in HOV lanes.
Shortage has truck drivers fuming
Colorado - and the nation - are experiencing a diesel-fuel shortage this summer that is hampering a variety of shipping businesses and has trucking companies scrambling for fuel.At some Colorado truck stops, fuel is being rationed to 50 to 75 gallons per truck - far less than the 100 to 300 gallons needed to fill the tank, said Colin Heupel, safety manager for HVH Transportation Inc. truckload division in Henderson.
;-)
==AC
We already tried for Venezuela covertly - and now with the talking points. I think this is probably credible enough to worry about, though I wonder whether the neocons will ever be able to convince Congress + a majority of the American people that this is practical after Iraq. There's certainly no hope of getting anything out of it in the reality-based community's thinking - not after Iraq, and more importantly for Shiites, not after Lebanon. We probably don't have the military power to do anything but carpet bombing Tehran.
If Bush goes ahead without congressional approval, you may as well cede those hopes of Repubs being in power at any time in the next 20 years - something that's probably a good deal more important to their state of mind than oil.
OK Goose, you've been outed. Come out and stand proud next to Valerie Plame. ;-)
Major Alaskan oil field shutting down By MARY PEMBERTON, Associated Press Writer
17 minutes ago
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Half the oil production on Alaska's North Slope was being shut down Sunday after BP Exploration Alaska, Inc. discovered severe corrosion and a small spill from a Prudhoe Bay oil transit line.
BP officials said they didn't know how long the Prudhoe Bay field would be off line. "I don't even know how long it's going to take to shut it down," said Tom Williams, BP's senior tax and royalty counsel.
Once the field is shut down, in a process expected to take day, BP said oil production will be reduced by 400,000 barrels a day. That's close to 8 percent of U.S. oil production as of May 2006, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060807/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_field_shutdown
Interesting, that US and Russia have convenient "accidents" that allow each country to keep it's oil on home turf.
Westexas...take it away...this is your cue.
But I guess if you wish to see some grand conspiracy in any and every major event that happens, even a damded old corroded pipeline will suffice. Yes, it's all those evil-doers in Washington who caused this pipeline shutdown. They have probably been putting salt and water on the pipeline for months just to make it corrode.
Now, put this in the backdrop of Iran saying they will use the "oil weapon" if the security council pushes things and it starts to smell not like a conspiracy theory, but perhaps countries keeping their oil wealth for themselves.
Is that such a HUGE stretch of the imagination.
Second, everyone is screaming for more production, not less. Sure, it makes perfect sense to produce less, saving oil for when times really get tough. But who in Washington is that smart? They all want to drill more, produce more, get gas prices lower.
What most people fail to realize, especially all those conspiracy theory folks, is that except for one or two, Washington politicians know how to get elected and not much else. They haven't a clue about peak oil. They take the USGSs word for it and think oil will not peak until the mid 30s. And they believe by that time oil will be obsolete, we will be running everything on something much cheaper.
Yes, they really believe that, and so do most Americans. No one in Washington would dream of sabotaging BPs pipeline just to try to cut back on US oil production. Hell, they all want the exact opposite. They want more oil, cheaper gas, fewer pissed off voters.
http://www.juancole.com/2006/08/one-ring-to-rule-them-wholesale.html
Rick D
It is our Western psyche to think there is a "plot" and a "happy ending" to this insane sequence of events. It is, perhaps, our only way to keep going on. Hoping there is a plan and someone knows what they are doing.
The greater fear is that there is no director, waiting to reveal the surprise ending to us all, and this scares the crap out of us.
Earlier today I found an article by Anglican Dr. Stephen Sizer on the ups and downs of Christian Zionism over the century, and he discussed at length the remarkable relationship that the American University developed with Arabs in the early years of the last century. According to him its founders had come as missionaries but came to have a deep respect, for whatever reasons, for Arabs of all sects and became great advocates of Arab nationalism before the British Empire conned the Arabs in WW1 and broke its promise to not interfere with the creation of a "single Arab kingdom". The University's own students became the Arab intellectuals who opposed the West:
"In 1948, weeks before the founding of the State of Israel, Bayard Dodge retired from AUB for Princeton in New Jersey. In April he wrote a watershed article in Readers Digest entitled, 'Must There Be War in the Middle East?'
[This six-thousand-word article, while forgotten and obscure, is the
definitive statement of American Arabists on the birth of Israel.
Though he cautioned, 'Not all Jews are Zionist and not all Zionists
are extremists,' for Dodge the Zionist movement was a tragedy of which
little good could come. Dodge was not anti-Semitic... Dodge's argument
against Zionism rests, not on the politics of the movement, but on the
Arabs' opposition to it, which in Dodge's view made the Zionist
program unrealistic and therefore dangerous. Years and decades of
strife would, Dodge knew, follow the birth of the Jewish state. As a
result, wrote Dodge, 'All the work done by our philanthropic
non-profit American agencies in the Arab world-Our Near East
Foundation, our missions, our YMCA and YWCA, our Boston Jesuit college
in Baghdad, our colleges in Cairo, Beirut, Damascus-would be
threatened with complete frustration and collapse... so would our oil
concessions,' a scenario that Dodge said would help Communist Russia."
Some things never change. But we'll never get a second chance to influence the Arab world in that peaceful way, as opposed to the Pentagon way or the Coca-Cola way.
Mexican update:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/4097247.html
excerpts
----------------
New forms of protest would be announced today, he [AMLO]said.
"Their refusal to count all the precincts and all the votes is a very clear indication that we won the presidential elections," Lopez Obrador told thousands of followers.
"Fraud! Fraud! Fraud!" his supporters shouted back.
He and his supporters say Calderon's becoming Mexico's next president Dec. 1 would amount to an electoral coup d'etat.
"We cannot permit that a group of the privileged continue controlling the government," Lopez Obrador said. "Let's have confidence in ourselves and our people. They might have money and power, but we have the power of the people."
Lopez Obrador told his supporters that the tribunal's ruling was "legally feeble; it doesn't have sufficient or in-depth logic."
We know he won," insisted 74-year-old Rufina Vega, who rode a bus from her working-class neighborhood to protest outside the court. "The other guy had money, and he gave lots of money. He's a thief."
Emilio Serrano, a congressman from Lopez Obrador's party, outlined a path of peaceful resistance, calling it akin to that taken by Mahatma Gandhi.
"We're prepared to give our lives for democracy in Mexico," he shouted through a megaphone to the crowd. "We're willing to let our blood flow. We're not going to kill Mexicans, nor are we going to fight the army with bullets. We won't answer the aggression, but we will allow them to attack us and let our blood flow if necessary."
-----------------
If AMLO really wants to drive his supporters into a frenzy: he merely has to explain to them that Cantarell is tanking and the PEMEX goose that lays the golden egg is going bankrupt.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I am not sure what the average person in Mexico thinks - they may be even more PO aware, at least PO within their own country, than Amercians. But I am quite sure that they don't know how steep the decline in Cantarell may become.
I suppose Obrador could hold back the bad depletion news 1. pending a possible (but unlikely) assumption of the Presidency or 2. as an issue to discredit the current President later on. He may just want to wait for a few more months of production shortfalls to speak up.
"It's over now, the lifestyle we once knew. . . "
(Sung to the tune of "Music of the Night" from Phantom of the Opera)
http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060806/COLUMNS03/608060309/1238/business
Excerpt:
Mexico's energy problems hurt U.S.
Morris R. Beschloss
Special to The Desert Sun
August 6, 2006 August 6, 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
America's energy doomsday clock could be inching closer to midnight with the news that Mexico's primary oilfield may be ready to crater. If these dire predictions turn out to be correct, such a development could deal a body blow to the United States' desperately needed oil supplies.
With 2006 demand calling for 22 million daily barrels, domestic U.S. supply is down to less than 8 million barrels a day. Of the average daily imports exceeding 12 million barrels, Mexico has been counted on to deliver 20 percent of that amount. In fact, additional offshore discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico were expected to add to that total. However, due to the excessive depth of these reserves, and the prohibitive cost of extraction, Mexico is not capable of pursuing that option at this time.
Compounding this problem, energy experts now believe that the Cantarell Oil complex, which had reached 2.1 million barrels a day two years ago, is now in sharp decline. It could be as low as 520,000 barrels a day by the end of 2008, with further downturns after that.
This unexpected shrinking of the world's second-largest oil complex, which has made up the lion's share of Mexico's production of 2.5 million barrels, jeopardizes about 90 percent of Mexico's exports, most of which are headed for the U.S. Only America's northern neighbor, Canada, which is expanding its oil sands capacity, may be left to make up this shortfall.
Ghawar complex
However, a similar crisis could be developing at the world's largest oilfield, Saudi Arabia's huge Ghawar complex, the only one in the world eclipsing the size of Mexico's Cantarell. Like Mexico's giant offshore development, Ghawar is also starting to be plagued by the incursion of seawater.
Despite vehement denials by Saudi officials, some reputable analysts have indicated that three of Saudi Arabia's five major sources of 9 million daily barrels of oil production could also be on the wane.
The 266 billion barrels that the Saudis have claimed as their part of the world's 1.2 trillion barrel reserves have never been verified by independent geologists.
With oil supplies currently tight and demand on the upsurge worldwide, such a combination of implosion in the world's two largest oilfields could prove to be catastrophic for the U.S., since Saudi Arabia supplies five percent of America's imports.
Other energy chickens may also be coming home to roost in America. International oil acquisition policy which has depended on the world's multi-nationals to assuage the increasing demand/supply imbalance is proving increasingly inadequate. The much-touted national Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds barely enough oil to cover a one-month supply in case of a national emergency.
A random observation on Sunday evening.
You are replying to a post with an allusion to the phantom of the opera, go figure :-)
"Clustering": random events are not evenly spaced. And as thinks worsen, the clusters come in bigger blobs.
The term "clusterf**k" is therefore sooo appropriate.
Seems like Heinberg's "source" is making the rounds, eh?
My thxs to all that replied. Here is a link to a John Ross article that outlines the Mexican Standoff pretty well:
http://www.counterpunch.org/ross08012006.html
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Is there any kind of authoritative wiki about 'energy and our future'? Thinking about whipping one up to try and consolidate the myriad developments and technologies I'm seeing in various posts.
Wikipedia itself is really very good.
Rick D
Argentina is the main provider of nat gas to Chile. And Chile uses it for its power plants.
But Argentina can barely sustain its own needs. In the last years Argentina started to import nat gas from Bolivia, and curtail nat gas exports to Chile
This got worse when Evo Morales became president of Bolivia, he refused to sell nat gas to Chile because of geopolitical reasons, and forbade nat gas exports triangulations through Argentina.
Best
Fernando
Regarding oil exports
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/argentna.html
I live in San Telmo, by the way.
Best
Fernando
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/5/9352/30248#92
Just wondering what the TOD input is ... did I handle it correctly? How should I handle it?
Kevembuangga's posting privileges definitely need to be revoked.
Also remem
Just don't debate the guy anymore. He's a clown and a poor conversationalist. You are not going to convince him of anything. With minimal effort most of us are easy to find in the real world.
matt
So you've descended into the true ad hominem attack eh?
I have not "descended", strictly speaking this is not an argument ad hominem, or ex concessis but an argumentum ad personam which is ALSO a legitimate mode of dialectical debate which you probably learnt too as a speech competitor.
I DO mean that you do not have the capabilities to discuss the substance of the matters in technology, complexity or economics, your arguments are pure rhetoric at the political and emotional level, a level at which you excel (poor Jason), but this is the VERY REASON that you discourse is devoid of any value, all form no content, BALDERDASH.
Not only against my pseudonym, but seeking to call out my real name and location?
I am not "seeking", I do have your full name AND address, why do you think I didn't disclose that?
This is NOT rocket science, ANYBODY with a modicum of IT savvyness can do it.
Don't be foolishly stubborn in your arguments, others may be less lenient than me.
I hope you'll drop this though, and simple discuss the issues without attacking the person. That's what I've been trying to do.
NO, you have been trying to CONFUSE the issues, and that is my resentment, I will not let you off the hook.
In your response to my last argument about complexity you switched the question from
A - Explain how "complexity" does not include redundancy.
To :
B - The question was specifically about the measure of copmlexity, and how redundancy was excluded from that measure.
Sorry, "the question" was A not B, this is a transparent and clumsy attempt to apply both Diversion and Don't Let Him Off The Hook
I doubt many TODers are interested in such dialectical technicalities.
We already have a good contingent of trolls at TOD, at least most of them are funny.
So, could you please stick your rhetoric wherever you like and lower your level of noise and silly interference.
Cut ALL blather, bunkum, claptrap, drivel, garbage, idiocy, nonsense, piffle, poppycock, rigmarole, rubbish, tomfoolery, trash, twaddle, tommyrot, applesauce, baloney, bilge, bull, bunk, crap, hooey and malarkey.
Good to see you own a thesaurus, but respond to my post....
How does it further your argument to post odographs name and location? That is like breaking into your ex's house and sniffing her panties. It's just weird. I read the whole thread and IMHO I think you are dodging and being difficult.
Matt....betcha cant find me.
$20 and a couple of hours and one can find out a whole lot about you.
thanks to the 'free market' there are company's that do nothing but sell this information to anyone.
1) Not everything is about "arguments", we will see...
2) How many "Johns" do you think there are in Newport Beach?
3) It is beneficial that everybody be aware that Internet anonymity is bogus.
Most hackers have anonymity but it requires extreme technicality and can sometimes be broken by other hackers.
I read the whole thread and IMHO I think you are dodging and being difficult.
Odograph is "dodging and being difficult".
I would not mind an HONEST debate about doom v/s nodoom and complexity but he keeps weaseling (I can do that too
betcha cant find me.
Why would I bother to do that?
We had arguments but I think it was fair from both sides if a bit teasing.
May be you disagree, fetch my name, very easy, I am a known sucker.
My point of annonymity is our conversations here should be for entertainment or education. If we (as I do my name is matt tipton) are open about our identity no big deal, but if we are annonymous It seems strange to "look up" someone. Much like opening someones dresser drawer at a party....its not locked but it is still an invasion.
Yeah, I think the drawer analogy is appropriate.
No need to reply.
You hung yourself by yourself.
Time to let it go & move on.
No pain can be caused by words.
However, words also demonstrate the character of a person.
Attempting to "out" somebody's pseudonym in order to win points in an argument is unacceptable.
You owe odograph an apology. You also owe the community an apology.
TOD is about ideas, not about individuals. I am sorry that you do not see the value in that.
As far as I am concerned, anything you have to say without a sincere apology is invalid and should be dealt with in the harshest of terms: we'll ignore you.
The community will do all that it can to defend what we have here.
Do you understand?
Yes, I understand we are doomed because our current "social emotions" take over reason any time.
I am much worse than all nazis and wingnuts here, right?
This is a VERY MINOR example, I agree.
Odograph "won" the prize for you all...
You owe odograph an apology. You also owe the community an apology.
I apologize.
Kevembuangga,
One man's wingnut is another man's visionary. In some circles, anyone who gives credence to peak oil theory at all is a wingnut.
By the way:
This is an example of keeping social emotions in check?
Despite some of the above posts, I find your contributions interesting and insightful for the most part. Why not keep it respectful? Nobody wins if you get shut out.
You're the guy at the high school debate club who stalks his opponent + takes videos of him in embaressing situations, just in case you need to add a 'my opponent pisses the bed' video to your points.
As to the thing that I'm guessing got you stirred up - the fact that someone believes in taking back a political brand (republicanism) for people that once had ideals about government (conservatives) is something to be praised, regardless of the idiots who have conquored it for now. As a progressive, I LIKE debating + convincing my conservative friends(without a backup plan) - the current administration simply isn't.
And don't believe that the smarmy Internet chickenhawks don't know that's a credible threat when they threaten to "out" the people they debate. They get a hard-on from spreading fear, yet their hands are as clean as someone who screamed for war with Iraq with no intention of ever enlisting.
I know that Thomas Friedman is often quoted here. But my contempt for the man turned to active rage when I heard that he wrote an editorial calling for the printing of the names of people who disputed the Administration/Israeli line on the causes of terrorism - an enemies list. An enemies list for ideological deviance in America. Being advocated in the Times.
So I did the only thing a real American could do with that news. I e-mailed him and volunteered to be the very first name on that list. Haven't heard back from him yet, though I imagine I'm now on somebody's list.
But if we are not ready en masse to raise our hands to be on a state enemies list like the slaves at the end of "Spartacus", our freedoms will not last long into the era of depletion.
There were plenty of high minded principled people in Germany and Russia who spoke out against Hitler and Stalin, mostly, they got a bullet in the head or ended up in the camps. I recall an old popular art poster of a mouse raising his middle finger to the hawk that was swooping down to eat him. Well, if you have no other options, there is some psychological pleasure in last acts of defiance. But it is much too late to revive the old US republic.
In all seriousness. Have your considered emigration to escape the US? Even Australia and Canada (which are unfortunately also under their own versions of religious neocon management) are less likely to inflict violent vigilante persecution on anti-regime dissidents. Emigration was good enough for Einstein and has worked out well for me.