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DrumBeat: September 19, 2006
Posted by threadbot on September 19, 2006 - 1:28pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Rig shortage to stunt oil output growth for years
A global shortage of rigs will hamper attempts to raise global oil and gas output for years, oil service company executives and consultants said on Monday.As producers look to boost crude and gas output to meet soaring demand growth, the global supply of rigs is stretched to the limit and is insufficient to meet industry needs.
"To get up to speed to meet the drilling needs of the industry, it's going to take a lot of time," said Pete Miller, Chief Executive of oil drilling equipment maker National Oilwell Varco.
Many rigs in service need to be replaced, Miller told an oil industry conference in London. He said the average age of rigs worldwide is now older than the average age at which they would typically be scrapped.
Those quick to deride peak oil theory also don't know Jack
Chevron: Steamflood pilot in Saudi neutral zone 'quite promising'
Russian pressure on Shell alarms EU, Japan
Mexico may double nuclear plant output
Mexico may become the latest oil-rich country looking seriously at nuclear power as a hedge against declining energy reserves, according to a plan outlined Monday by Energy Minister Fernando Canales Clariond.
Tanzania: Country Turns to Cassava for Energy
Nigeria to restore oil production loss
Amaranth faces billions of dollars in natgas losses
Amaranth Advisors' hedge fund said on Monday it may suffer billions of dollars in natural gas losses, becoming the latest hedge fund to be stung by energy price volatility this year.The Connecticut-based company, which had over $9 billion in capital under management, said year-to-date losses may top 35 percent as it liquidates its natural gas positions.
Farmer planning diesel tree biofuel
They say that money doesn't grow on trees, but a Queensland farmer believes fuel does.Mike Jubow, a nursery wholesaler from Mackay, has begun importing seed from Brazil to plant diesel trees.
An Interview with Dennis Meadows - Co-Author of 'Limits to Growth'
Study: A Strategy Based on Fuel Economy Provides Best Outcome for Domestic Automakers
The only way to kick our oil habit
Russian firm rolls out U.S. gas stations
Bolstered by ambitions to grab a foothold in the United States and take on gasoline brands like Mobil and BP, Lukoil is mounting a $35 million (U.S.) campaign to stamp its name across a vast network of U.S. gas stations.
A 100mpg DIY car costing $2500
Gore Calls for Immediate Freeze on Heat-Trapping Gas Emissions
Fiddling While the Planet Burns
Will the Wall Street Journal's editorial writers accept a challenge to learn the truth about the science of global climate change?
Yesterday I was at blooomberg.com and listened to a Jim Rogers phone interview. One of the the "correspondents" asked if Jim suscribed to the "peak oil theory". Jim, essentially evaded the label and said oil supply is in decline...
anyway, thought I'd mention that.
oops, here's a link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/
third one down
From Wikipedia:
A euphemism is an expression intended by the speaker to be less offensive, disturbing, or troubling to the listener than the word or phrase it replaces, or in the case of doublespeak to make it less troublesome for the speaker.
So, what are some euphemisms for Peak Oil?
Supply-constrained,supply/demand imbalances, etc....
Anymore out there we can use as covert buzzwords?
"Running on empty"?
"Hitting the bottom of the tank"?
Hmmm.... maybe I don't have quite the temprament for the marketing world...
"Running on empty"?
"Hitting the bottom of the tank"?
Don't you guys get it? The gas gauge is only down to 1/2 full - maybe not even that low yet. We're talking maybe 50% consumed, not 90+%. I prefer the phrase "the end of cheap oil" - and even that remains to be seen...
So in that case your little meter that you have there is not measuring ability-to-increase, rather, it represents reserves. Two different considerations.
Just depends on how you market the metaphor, so to speak. For instance, Richard Heinberg's new book, based on the Rimini Protocol, has a meter showing "less than zero"--which is clearly indicating an ability to increase not an absolute zero. The world is presently around 85mbpd or something like that. I'm pretty sure Heinberg is aware of this given that his job is essentially knowing such mudane yet lurid details. Even at a global 2% conventional oil depletion rate there is obviously oil left, and will be for a very long time... The debate consists of: is there capacity left, and at what price increases, and at what rate of price increases to offset conventional depletion? The biggest question of all is that geological and mathematical point where we've hit highest production crest and begin a dismal decent into the trough of our future. 1970 in the US can be cited as just one example.
This inveigh in the form of "we're not outta gas yet" is appropriate if you're being literalist. But you become an apologist with a snipe at the idea that cheap oil is still around after putting up a straw man with the doubly disengenious tank half empty lament--which, btw, is the same illogical and fatuous argument that people like Greg Pallast and various others make to decry the idea that more is wrong in the US than simply the neocons securing "our interests", a translation for "invading countries".
Everyone should know that something has gone awry. All you have to do is turn on a TV, good thing I don't own one. Alas, there is enough BS in the newspaper--why in the world would I need a TV?
I think I'll make that previous paragraph my signiture on here...
"Oil supply crunch point"
to
"Oil supply splat point"
"He passed over" vs
"He died"
I'll stick to "Peak Oil". The truth shouldn't be diluted to the point we don't recognize the problem.
What are we going to do about, you know ........,
"That Addicted-to-Oil Thing"?
1.World ending crisis #638
2.
BirdFluIranNukesPeakOilWhoopingCoughIslamofascismCommunismTsunamiGlobalWarmingMcDeath
3. Business Opportunity
How about this for a slogan, "Peak Oil is the new Black...Death"
Kinda like creationism redubbed as "intelligent design."
They can't use the "PO" phrase or the thin veneer will chip away and the lonely little wizard pulling the strings will be revealed.
Let's all repeat together, "the MSM did that" and create OUR consensual reality.
John Q is as immunized as American society can make him, up to and including using his tax money (or for the cynical, his future money to pay tomorrow's taxes for yesterday's expenditures) to invade an oil rich country.
You must be one of those people who think peak oil is a movement or something. Personally, I think peak oil is essentially an observation, along the lines that peak sun occurs around June 21 every year in the northern hemisphere. I don't base any religious or cultural importance on that fact, though it is certainly possible to base a calendar on it.
John Q.'s belief in peak oil has nothing to do with peak oil occurring. His preparations - or lack - will have something to do with how John Q. deals with that reality.
Personally, John Q. will deserve everything likely to be coming his way when oil production begins to decline, but that is a personal flaw in my perspective, and not part of the secret handshake of any movement I belong to.
by the way...what part of Maine are you from? I'm in Cumberland County. Small town.
Of course, Americans know the future is coming, and any of them over the age of roughly 35 also know about gas lines, stagflation, declining standards of living, etc.
But then, they convinced themselves that the past is not a predictor of future performance - unless it came to rising stock prices, rising home prices, etc.
On one level there is in North America significant growth in intermodal loadings, indicating a shift from long haul trucking to train transport. Trucking industry resistance to this shift has faded. Government increasingly is supporting this shift through measures ranging from local zoning/transportation planning to accommodate intermodal terminals to financial aid.
You can get some idea of the growth in intermodal with the data available here: http://www.intermodal.org/statistics_files/index.shtml
At another level, important parts of the trucking industry are now lining up behind proposals to mandate speed limiters in heavy trucks. Industry representatives cite public safety and environmental concerns, and no doubt some of them actually are sincere on this front. The major concern though relates to the economic, i.e. fuel (and insurance)cost of pulling 80,000 - 130,000 lbs at high speed. Mandated use of speed limiters are proposed because in the economically dre-regulated transportation industry entry costs are low, margins are thin, delivery schedules are tight (just-in-time) and the 'good guys' need to be able to compete with those that cheat on speed limits in order to provide faster delivery. The cheaters are in the immediate self-interest mode, while the 'good guys' are concerned about competition from rail and water.
The speed limiter issue is now on the agenda of relevant government bodies in Canada and is at least being discussed by US regulators. Industry lobbyists are proposing that the speed limiters still allow trucks to maintain all too high speeds, but this reflects internal industry politics. They know that the first hurdle is to make the limiters standard equipment and that once mandated and installed, the speed limit is adjustable. Realpolitic. In the end, speed limiters won't save the trucking industry from an inevitable reduction to a primarily local transport function, but they ease the transition.
Here is an article in a trucking industry trade publication dealing with this matter: http://www.todaystrucking.com/news.cfm?intDocID=16714
So the inability of the hydrocarbon industry to keep prices down via an increase in supply is making a difference at an industry wide level and at a regulatory level.
Cheer up, lasting change occurs a step at a time.
http://www.energybulletin.net/18634.html
A modest first step, reducing US Oil Use by 10% in ten to twelve years.
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm
06-27) 04:00 PDT Washington -- The Supreme Court agreed Monday to hear a case that will determine whether the Bush administration must regulate greenhouse gases, which could have broad consequences for California's landmark law reining in vehicle emissions to fight global warming.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/06/27/MNGPHJKN0H1.DTL
======Friday, September 01, 2006
California Assembly Passes Foreign Oil Independence Legislation - Bill Heads to Governor
http://watthead.blogspot.com/2006/09/california-assembly-passes-foreign-oil.html
=======Gov. Schwarzenegger Signs Legislation to Complete Million Solar Roofs Plan
http://gov.ca.gov/index.php/speech/3595/
=
=====Automakers don't like us, cuz other states follow our lead..
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Strict car emission rules look likely
Dealers protest, but California limits have legislators' support
By KYLE ARNOLD
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
OLYMPIA -- Washington is likely to join California and six other states in adopting tighter vehicle emissions standards, despite protests from auto dealers.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/208989_leg22.html
=======Plug-in hybrids get big push from Calif. utility
5.1 million customers urged to lobby automakers to build them
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14681736/
Since America is a huge country, with lots of diversity, and so on, not every single American can be covered by a general statement.
But here it goes - Americans are seriously hoping the future never comes, because then they will have to pay for what they have done in the past.
You can take that on as many levels as you wish, from the eminently financial (debt statistics, from personal to corporate to government to international are astounding in their truly historic dimensions) to the ethical (no one is as ignorant as Americans generally claim to be - even Americans know that Iraq, for example, is rich in oil) to the metaphysical (to use a fairly common expression - 'payback is a bitch').
Unfortunately, probably the best hope for the rest of the world is the rapid and massive collapse of America's consumption based society, since that society seems utterly incapable of changing itself voluntarily.
Of course, New Orleans was, and is, America's most unique city.
All in all, our great rival, San Fransico is doing a decent job in preparation.
What are your reports from the fringe?
Are they starting to feel it?
Are they starting to ask questions?
Has the thinking light flickered on?
Or is it business as usual?
The only thing that seems to get people's notice from my observations is "The Petro Price Noise" pounding into their wallets on occasion. Otherwise, there attitude is, "What's that got to do with me?"
Reading into your comments, you seem to be saying to that John Q was moving in the direction of understanding (or perhaps acknowledging) oil supply constraints when the price of gas was high, but now that it is dropping, John Q is less concerned about changing his ways. And thus, John Q is not going to get on board the train headed toward alternatives and sustainability.
If that's what you're saying, I agree. I don't think John Q is interested in hearing about Peak Oil, even when gas prices are high, and especially not when they've dropped. Did you read the interview above with Dennis Meadows, author of "Limits to Growth"? He says repeatedly in the interview that people aren't going to act.
I don't see John Q changing his ways until the point at which he can no longer afford to continue with the status quo. And this is going to happen on a worldwide scale as those in power (i.e., with money and vested interests in the current structure of things) do everything they can to maintain the status quo, until it just can't be preserved any longer.
It is my view that we are living on top of a house of cards that grows taller and less stable each day. The people of the world are going to do everything in their power to keep that house of cards standing, even as it grows. And you know just how spectacular a house of cards falls...
..Should be interesting to say the least.
Tom Anderson-Brown
Is this non-action, or is there an implied bar here that we should be at such-and-such action in 2006, and any less that that is zero?
As you've heard many say, we need a 20-year head start before peak to beat this challenge. So I guess my view is that the actions of California are noble but aren't enough, even if all 50 states did what they are doing/proposing. The scale in which we (the worldwide community) need to act is so big that the actions of individual states amounts to inaction. In my view.
Thanks,
Tom Anderson-Brown
I think with "wedges" starting at peak the rate of depletion is reduced to something that will broadly speaking be painful but not deadly.
That makes me, to optimists, a dreaded pessimist.
That makes me, to pessimists, a dreaded optimist.
I'm headed into town. If the bookmobile is there, I'll donate my copy of "Inconvenient Truth" to them. If not, Willits libe tomorrow. I'll let you know where it ends up.
Rat
You live in Willits? Are you a member of WELL? Do you think what we are doing is having any impact or will amount to substantial change for your granddaughter?
Laytonville. (My sons live in W, altho I think they are gonna eventually end up back here, cuz they own 270 acres. I go to the L'ville meetings when I can, but I work Fri. nights, which also means I haven't been involved with the community garden on Sat morning. (<:
Is WELL having an impact? It is on me. PO wasn't new to me; first learned about it during the McGovern campaign. Originally, I wasn't gonna go solar for another few years, until after I retired. The signs going up at the Enviro Ctr. in 11/04 prompted me to do it now. Which got 2 others to do it. Made enuf of an impact that I started burning copies of End of Suburbia and passing them out. I just gave my last copy to John Pinches' sister for him, and mentioned you in the note.(Rat droppings...Pinches is our newly elected county supervisor. I gave it to his sis at the general store; one of the advantages of a small town). Started a PO/sustainability chat room on Silicon Investor.
Amount to substanial change for the Rug Rat? Let me answer that by quoting your wife (sometimes I work as relief RT at Howard; I managed to corner her one day. Incidentally, she doesn't know it, but she just gave the Rug Rat a scrip for antibiotics...small world of small towns). I asked her "what you two said about this in the middle of the night, when nobody else could hear? Do you really think we can make it?" She said, "I've got twins; I have to believe we'll make it."
I know my sons and a lot of their friends are aware, and trying to get ready. The guys even talked about brewing their own BD. A friend of theirs out Sherwood Road is doing that.
Rat
We are riding and creating a political turning of the tide around here it seems. Hard to know if it will make a difference in the greater scheme of things, but what else is there to do but either try hard for what you believe in or become a dull, nihilistic cynic who is ashamed to look your children in the eyes.
Isn't my wife fantastic! I am so lucky to have her total support.
Best of luck with your health and keep it up in Laytonville!
For my taste, too. And the Hog Farmers, too.This bothers me, in that it will turn off the people we need to reach; the loggers and ranchers and retired folks. Sometimes it gets a bit too New Age for me.
But, when all is said and done, at least we are trying to prepare. I figure living here gives us the best chance we have; I can't really think of anywhere else I'd rather be. It's why a lot of us, including you and me, moved here. It's gonna take entire communities to be able to survive more or less intact. We can't, as indviduals, learn all the skills we need to survive. Most of the pioneers didn't even do that. They would find a blacksmith, or an itinerent furniture maker would pass by, etc. We have lots of resources and we have lots of skilled people. If we can't cope with PO here, nobody will be able to.
I'm not sure what will be the strongest arguements for John. He's fiscally conservative, so I was thinking he might respond best to the pressures that oil prices will have on the operating budget. It's gonna get pretty expensive to run the sheriff's fleet of cars when gas is 5 bucks. I noticed Ukiah just purchased a few hybrids. Maybe the county can, too.
Take care.
Mike da Rat
Do you really think it is fair therefore, to say there is "no energy policy?"
Or again, is "less than we would like" cast as "none?"
Energy conservation measures in Massachusetts:
State Tax deductions for usage of mass transit > $150. (Max $750 deduction)
10% insurance deduction for taking Mass Transit.
The feds still have a $300 credit for certain home fuel efficency upgrades.
Also, your local utilities have a lot of great programs. I'm getting a full home energy audit for free in 2.5 weeks on my house. Supposedly it's a 2 hour process. I'll report back on the full details once it happens...
Whatever happened to John Kerry? I think he's still our Senator or something.
Can you say Mitt Romney?...Oh, yeah, thanks for fixing those ceiling tiles, you'd make a great President. Duh.
One if by land, two if by sea. MIT? Harvard? BU Photonics Lab. Ken Kesey. Our Energy policy pretty much starts and ends with the likes of Menino. Huh? Exactly.
I think peak oil will really break out when a diverse range of companies begin to realize that they are going to suffer because the oil companies are hiding the truth. They have the funds and leverage to push the story public.
How many billion dollar losses does a company have to suffer before they start asking for reliable oil production numbers?
I think it's a classic problem of a large organization creating its own reality by consensus. When everyone in a group says prices will be X, you've got to be kind of a jerk, and risk your position in the group to disagree.
I saved this quote from just July of last year, 2005:
I suppose the EIA did say that ... and who within GM (or Ford) would speak up to disagree when so much of the corporate mission depended on it being true?
(What I've long held they should have done is have a range of car lines, positioned to prosper at with a range of car prices. Kinda like Toyota with everything from a Prius to a ... whatever they call their monster truck.)