DrumBeat: September 20, 2006
Posted by threadbot on September 20, 2006 - 9:14am
Topic: Miscellaneous
SILVER SPRING, Md. -- Discovery Channel announced today that production has begun on FINAL HOUR, an historic eight-part television series that bridges the gap between science and action surrounding the most critical issues of our time. Set as hybrid of drama and non-fiction storytelling entirely based on scientific fact, FINAL HOUR addresses core issues of climate change, poverty and fears of peak oil. Rather than merely present issues, the series uses some of the world's greatest minds to present ground-breaking solutions to sustainability and potential means to save the planet. The series premieres in Fall of 2007.FINAL HOUR has been invited to participate in the 2006 annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative. The Clinton Global Initiative is a non-partisan catalyst for action, bringing together a community of global leaders to devise and implement innovative solutions to some of the world's most pressing challenges.
Amaranth future in doubt, may hit larger funds
Fund manager Amaranth Advisors may not survive the billions of dollars in natural gas losses it disclosed this week, and larger institutional energy funds may see some investors flee in the aftermath, industry experts said on Tuesday.
Scientists tell Exxon to stop anti-climate change campaign
Scientists shocked as Arctic polar route emerges
European scientists voiced shock as they showed pictures which showed Arctic ice cover had disappeared so much last month that a ship could sail unhindered from Europe's most northerly outpost to the North Pole itself.
The Russian presidential administration has developed fuel strategy for Russian electricity. Kommersant has learned that it will not emphasize growing gas supplies, of which, experts say, there is already a 30-percent deficit, but coal. Thus, Russian authorities will convert domestic consumers to coal and heating oil, which will unavoidably lead to higher electricity prices, but guarantee that Gazprom meets its export plans.
Russia tries to rein in foreign oil firms
Bolivia issues ultimatum for oil companies to renegotiate contracts
La Paz - The Bolivian government on Tuesday issued an ultimatum to oil companies, setting an October 31 deadline for them to sign new contracts following the nationalization of the country's energy resources.
Maybe Roubini is right and the US housing market will come down as Icarus falling from the sky, dragging everything else with it, including the demand for commodities. Under such a scenario it doesn't really matter whether oil costs a few cents more or less at the pump – it will by definition cost less over time. If US consumers stop spending the world will (be forced to) take notice and US interest rates will go down regardless whether short term gloom and doom can be avoided or not.
Economists wary of falling energy prices
Meeting ‘peak-oil threat’ will cost $20tn: US
LONDON: The world needs to spend $1tn a year in alternative fuels, starting 20 years before the peak in conventional oil production, in order to mitigate fuel shortages, a US Energy Department study showed.Production peaks in Texas, the UK and Norway were examined as part of two studies for the department that advised on “crash course’’ efforts to cope with an eventual shortage of gasoline and other liquid fuels.
The study, led by Robert Hirsch, didn’t predict when world production will peak, though Hirsch told reporters his guess is “within the next five to 10 years.’’
Oil is a finite resource, but is a topic that draws out seemingly infinite opinions
More Companies May Dig Deeper in Search for Oil
Safety fears force two-year delay to giant BP platform
Iowa company turns to ammonia for fuel
An Iowa alternative fuel engine manufacturer has reached an agreement with an irrigation pump maker in California to make the world's first ammonia-powered irrigation pump system.
Air Force Flight Test of Syntroleum Gas-to-Liquids Fuel Successful
Syntroleum announced that its Fischer-Tropsch (FT) jet fuel has been successfully tested in a United States Air Force B-52 Stratofortress Bomber aircraft.
[Update by Leanan on 09/20/06 at 10:44 AM EDT]
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending September 15, 2006: Oil little changed after lower-than-expected crude inventory.
China to surpass clean-energy goals by 2020
And the best:
from New Poll Finds Californians Bullish on Renewable Energy.
http://odograph.com/?p=114
California is becoming notorious for passing meaningless legislation with great goals that are simply ignored, see most recently their Global Warming Legislation. Next to DC, Sacramento is the most broken government in the republic, at some point we're all going to find out how wonderful it is to have a government completely corrupt and unable to accomplish anything - of, by, and for the corporations - even the libertarians might find this a little distasteful.
Los Angeles County has 5 supervisors for over 10 million people -- that's local government! At the nation's founding the constitution had 35,000 people for each Congressmen. The fact is the architecture of our government is broken, the old infrastructure of our politics has been destroyed, a completely vial and corrupt process of money, polls, and television rules.
We have a broken political and government system, it desperately needs reform.
On.
Correct.
Our entire system of government is broken. We are seeing the results we are seeing because the system has become clogged with vested interests.
Where's the political Drain-O?
Hugo Chavez makes some caustic comments about the smell of sulpher that hovers around the White House and proposes to Americans that they read one of their own as a first step in clearing the odour.
But his sense of humour and irony, his subtlety (LOL), even the accuracy of his content, puts the great white chief to shame. I'd pull out this one paragraph as being a poignant and perceptive observation:
"Yesterday, the secretary general practically gave us his speech of farewell. And he recognized that over the last 10 years, things have just gotten more complicated; hunger, poverty, violence, human rights violations have just worsened. That is the tremendous consequence of the collapse of the United Nations system and American hegemonistic pretensions."
Hugo is entertaining in an over the top kind of way, but at least he spouts some ideas and very occasional interesting observation. GW makes me shiver with his simplistic (much more so than Hugo's) mechanistic attempts - apparently mostly successful - at selected voter button pressing.
Bush's tax cuts for the rich, and Hugo's education programs for the poor for example.
I guess that answers it.
The only thing they need it would seem is Diebold Voting machines to to ensure No "Left-Wings" would get elected.
BTW, the "Coup" that nearly toppled them was staged by the CIA, not Unlike the successful one that changed Iran from a democractically elected president to a dictator in 1953, or the other hundred other examples.
<SNIP>
"In 1953, Iran had a democratic government. This is a very jarring thing for us to realize now because we are not used to seeing the word "Iran" and the word "democracy" in the same sentence. The fact is, however, that Iran was developing a long, rocky but democratic path in the early 1950s. For reasons which my book explains in great detail, the United States decided, in the summer of 1953, to go in and overthrow that democratic government. The result of that coup was that the Shah was placed back on his throne. He ruled for 25 years in an increasingly brutal and repressive fashion. His tyranny resulted in an explosion of revolution in 1979 the event that we call the Islamic revolution. That brought to power a group of fanatically anti-Western clerics who turned Iran into a center for anti-Americanism and, in particular, anti-American terrorism. "
http://www.buzzflash.com/interviews/03/07/29_kinzer.html
"There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know."
- Harry Truman
Same thing with Iran.
Chavez, like Bush, is a symptom of dysfunction and polarization.
(Yawn) Spare me your cliches.
read about the people in venezuela from their point of view...more poor people are dying and suffering since his rule than before he came into power. chavez cares more about his own agenda than the people of his country and wins hearts of poor people in other countries by throwing oil around when he should be doing more for the poor in his own country. its sad because we need that oil and allow ourselves to be insulted and disgraced because we are so dependent on the resource. chavez needs to recheck himself and there should be more news on how venezuelans are being treated. chavez is a charade and we're allowing ourselves to give into his nonsense.
"...there exists nonetheless sufficient factual evidence to prove that Chavez' regime is by far the most corrupt that Venezuela has ever seen. For instance the irresponsible manner in which the country has been indebted. In 1998 the internal outstanding debt was close to $2.000 billion, in contrast to $16.000 billion at present. Venezuela's banking system holds 64% of the internal debt at times when PDVSA's output capacity has decreased significantly. This translates into larger chunks of the budget having to be destined to service the debt, both internal and external, placing an extraordinary burden in the country's finances. The $2.500 billion deposited in the Inversion and Macro Stabilization Fund (FIEM), were pilfered by Chavez.... "
http://www.hacer.org/current/Vene52.php
In my own county we have 1 house elected representative for 45 000 people, but that's not usual, 100 000 is more usual.
Anyway, as the total number of citizen increase, the number of people represented by one representative increase even more. That's because you cannot increase effectively the number of representative too much. At one point even more representative does not increase actual democracy.
I can see that even in small local groups. It is often more efficient to work with a small number of people (3 to 7) than working with larger groups (8 or more). As the number of people increase, the increment of added value does not increase alike.
I did not make any actual research on this, it is based on observation of a number of groups (more than 30) I have worked with in the last 8 years.
The increment of added value in a group is somewhat following the same curve than the oil "creaming curve" that you saw in some Mathew Simmons presentation.
Also in any group of more than 10 people the following apply :
1 leader, no matter what
3 or 4 people involved more than the others
3 somewhat present but with less valuable participation
2 or 3 that we see only once in a while and giving only marginal effort.
I don't want to imply that elected representative are subject to the same distribution, but I don't think that I'm very far from the reality.
We have passed the point where a Revolution could do any good. We have gotten a National Government that will not allow a Revolution in the first place.
I have Fixed it so that people may comment on my short story about "A future as I saw it" What is still scary is I think it will be sooner rather than later.
dan-ur.blogspot.com
Have fun, just remember we have the technology to do it today.
'Time to hold these companies responsible,' attorney general says
MSNBC staff and news service reports
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14924286/
Updated: 12:13 a.m. MT Sept 20, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO - California filed suit against the world's largest carmakers on Wednesday, charging that greenhouse gases from their vehicles have cost the state millions of dollars.
State Attorney General Bill Lockyer said the lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Northern California was the first of its kind to seek to hold manufacturers liable for the damages caused by their vehicles' emissions.
Lockyer, a Democrat, said the complaint states that under federal and state common law the automakers have created a "public nuisance" by producing "millions of vehicles that collectively emit massive quantities of carbon dioxide."
Carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases have been linked to global warming.
Lockyer's office said that "under the law, a `public nuisance' is an unreasonable interference with a public right, or an action that interferes with or causes harm to life, health or property."
"Global warming is causing significant harm to California's environment, economy, agriculture and public health. The impacts are already costing millions of dollars and the price tag is increasing," Lockyer said in a statement. "Vehicle emissions are the single most rapidly growing source of the carbon emissions contributing to global warming, yet the federal government and automakers have refused to act. It is time to hold these companies responsible for their contribution to this crisis."
Lockyer said he would seek "tens or hundreds of millions of dollars" from the automakers.
The lawsuit names Ford, General Motors, Toyota and the North American units of DaimlerChrysler, Honda and Nissan.
Activists welcomed the move.
"Industries responsible for the pollution that drives global warming should expect more suits like this until we have effective national legislation to stop global warming," David Doniger, a staffer with the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.
Carmakers earlier sued to block a 2005 California law that would require them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on new vehicles.
California and 11 other states are also involved in a lawsuit challenging the Bush administration's refusal to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. The Supreme Court is expected to hear that case during its upcoming term.
Reuters and sylvester80 contributed to this report.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14924286/
Let me rephrase that and add a bit:
Activists, MOST OF WHOM DRIVE, welcomed the move. "Why should I, the user, be held accountable when I can point fingers at the dealer?", one activist asked.
We are never going to get anywhere until people are willing to accept a higher degree of personal responsibility for the situation we are in.
Good point. Until everyone understands and then cooperates to mitigate the Tragedy of the Commons finger-pointing gets us nowhere. Optimizing the squeeze through the Dieoff Bottleneck by detritus powerdown and biosolar powerup, along with universal cooperation on voluntary birth controls is the best strategy to reduce the coming postPeak violence. Will we have the wisdom to proactively restructure our society to localized permaculture with 60-75% of us laboring in the fields?
Otherwise: Requiem
---------------------------------------------
It really will be back to the good old days! Shouts of "BRING ME HIS HEAD" will ring through the land, slaves, scalps, souvenirs and trophies of all sorts, ... exciting possibilities limited only by our ingenuity.
The good news is that recycling will finally become fashionable! We will see feral children mining the dumps for plastic to burn (Pampers) so they can heat the hovels they are forced to live in. The strongest kids will set traps for fresh meat -- rats -- while the weaker kids will eat anything they can cram into their mouths (old shoes, styrofoam peanuts, newspaper soup). Pandemics will sweep the world, punctuated every so often by explosions as abandoned nuke plants go critical. Leaking dumps and tanks will spew PCBs and radioactive hazwaste into the feral food chain spawning surprising new shapes for young mothers to enjoy nursing. [54] Toxic chemical fires, blowing garbage and trash, genetic mutations, filthy water, cannibalism ...
As the Easter Islanders say: "The flesh of your mother sticks between my teeth".[55]
The situation will be especially serious for a short time because the population will keep rising due to the lags inherent in the age structure and social adjustment. Then mercifully, the population will drop sharply as the death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health services.[56] Trapped in obsolete belief systems, Americans won't even know why their society disintegrated.
A hundred thousand years from now -- once the background radiation levels drop below lethality -- a new Homo mutilus will crawl out of the caves to elect a leader. Although we have no idea what mutilus might look like, evolutionary theory can still tell us who will win the election. He will be the best liar running on a platform to end hunger by controlling nature.
How could it be otherwise?
------------------------------
Recall my postings on the false detritus-fueled humanimal ecosystem that overlies our actual ecosystem. Until we are willing to cooperate in mitigation of both sides of Jay's Thermo-Gene Collision--we will be going in the opposite direction of optimizing the coming squeeze. Such is life.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Cheers
I welcome this suit.
Robert Rapier:
As to your comments about activitists, so what? Their position is utterly irrelevent to the State's case. It is relevent apparently as a chance for Robert Rapier to again place himself in some kind of ethical castle far above the "activists".
Unfortunately the climate problem is global and urgent. We need to accomplish all sorts of steps at the same time. It is simply not workable that we shall do nothing until all people, as judged by Robert Rapier, have accepted personal responsibility.
Robert, it becomes apparent that for all your thoughtful posts, when it comes to action you stand for absolutely nothing. I say this because the only actions you find acceptable require absolute ethical purity: Let he who doesn't use oil products cast the first stone. Sorry but the efforts to protect the environment are mostly not about your personal need to judge others and protect your imaginary ethical castle.
Roy
It is not the ethics. It is the hypocrisy. We always wish to point fingers at someone else. We want to pass an initiative like Prop 87, because it punished oil companies and removes personal responsibility. We now want to punish auto companies for enabling our habits. It is ludicrous. What I stand for is personal responsibility. That is one reason favor a gas tax. He who uses the most fossil fuels will pay the largest penalty. Individual accountability.
Incidentally, I will also point out that you are far off the mark. If I don't stand for what you stand for, it doesn't mean I stand for absolutely nothing. I stand for many things, among them higher gas taxes, conservation, solar energy, biomass gasification, additional research for cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel, etc.
But I believe hypocrisy should be pointed out when it occurs, and that is the issue here. We do ourselves no favors by pointing fingers at others for our oil addiction. The problem is mine and yours, not the car company's problem. If I conserved and bought fuel-efficient transportation, the oil and automotive companies would have to adapt or die.
... maybe get rid of those pesky catalytic covnerters as well ...
No. Gas taxes, for instance, are not "individual action." But we could get higher gas taxes passed if individuals stopped looking to scapegoat others for this situation. Blame the oil companies, and raise their taxes. Blame the automakers, and sue them. But a gas tax? Political suicide, because the individual doesn't accept that he is the problem.
If we understood and accepted that the problem is on the demand side, we would have a real chance of implementing meaningful change. CAFE standards? A decent start, but meaningless if peak comes sooner rather than later. By the time the average mileage of all cars on the road is significantly impacted, it may be too late.
You insist that this is scapegoating, etc. Maybe. And maybe GM's bankrolling of hydrogen could be labled distraction. And Exxon's bankrolling of climate critics could be labeled as decept.
I think you are falling into the trap of demanding the perfect here. Are you really going to convince every actor in the economy to rational and moral action?
... maybe you ask for that, and maybe you ask for it "symmetrically" with moral vendors and consumers ... but will that "meaningful" if peak oil comes sooner rather than later? By the time the average consumer and company is convinced, it may be too late.
No, I don't demand it. Maybe the lawsuit does a bit of good. Maybe Prop 87 does indirectly reduce consumption. I am honestly not sure how I would vote on it, and if I demanded perfection it would be a no-brainer to vote against it.
What is frustrating for me is that we don't accept more responsibility for our personal contribution to Peak Oil and Global Warming, and therefore we have to settle for very tiny incremental changes. I don't know that we have time for that.
If everyone accepted personal responsibility, and were willing to take serious steps toward mitigation, we could postpone Peak Oil talk for a long, long time by slappping on a $4/gal gasoline tax. But such things are only possible if we stop pointing fingers at everyone else and accept personal responsibility.
I think you misinterpret that this means I advocate primarily individual actions. No. I favor mass action, but meaningful mass action is going to be tough to implement with today's climate of "not my fault."
FWIW, there were some who made the cycnical suggestion that I should not have bought my Prius at all. I just have kept driving my Subaru, and kicked half the purchase-price to movements like this that enforce broader action.
In a pragmatic sense, it might be a dollar better spent.
(BTW, my reaction to the old Forbes quote, as I think about it, is that GM deserves whatever it gets.)
Get that? They couldn't "have the car held hostage to the debates about energy dependence, resource usage, global climate change."
We will NOT deal effectively with Peak Oil and post-Peak Oil if public policy is based on falsehoods and misleading myths. We cannot make effective steps to mitigate Peak Oil if we place our highest priority on dead ends.
Keep up the work of doing good and build thicks walls. I think it is imperative that we have open, sometimes tough, discussions in order to get at the truth. I hope people don't take questions or counter arguments as attacks on them personally.
I much prefer discussing issues with people who disagree with me than having a cheering choir following me about fawning. I suspect you do too.