DrumBeat: January 13, 2007
Posted by threadbot on January 13, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Venezuela to nationalize 'absolutely all' energy sector
Chávez tells parliament: 'We have decided to nationalize the whole Venezuelan energy and electricity sector, all of it, absolutely all.'
Climate Change and the Coming Energy Crisis
Imagine this situation: Two of your dearest friends, a retired couple, have just returned from vacationing on a remote, sparsely populated island on another continent. They invite you to dinner and announce their surprising plans. They intend to move to that country with their grown children, reduce their consumption, grow their own food, and help their grandchildren survive the terrible years ahead.Within ten or twenty years, they believe, Canada will be a miserable place to live because of fuel shortages. The price of oil will skyrocket. Houses will be unheated, and hardly any cars, planes, tractors, or trucks will be moving. The economy will be paralyzed. Millions will starve or freeze in poverty, especially in northern cities. Violence will prevail as marauders try to seize the necessities of survival. That's why your friends have decided to leave.
The U.S. sees its alliance with a republic of just 8.4 million people--about the same population as New York City--as key to securing energy supplies at a time when China and the rest of Asia are competing for new sources. The Caspian, which is largely unexplored, probably accounts for 7% of the world's oil reserves, and the oil flowing through the new West-bound pipeline still represents a mere 1% of global supply. But ultimately some of the gas from Khazakstan and Turkmenistan's much larger natural-gas fields across the Caspian from Baku could flow through BP's pipelines, turning to the West rather than to Asia. "The pipeline is changing the strategic map in a very major way," says a senior State Department official.
Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat: How the Democrats can Keep from being Arrested
Call it the downsizing of America. When you throw in peak oil and global warming, it seems inevitable. Conventional wisdom has it that Americans do not want to hear that tough times are coming, and that somebody inevitable will be scapegoated for the loss of empire and easy motoring -- the most likely scapegoats being those identified as liberals and lefties, including the Democrats, whether they like it or not. The ground has been prepared by a generation of demonization of liberals. Hence their terror.
Cheap oil's life is likely to be short
The slide in petroleum may or may not have run its course for now, but whatever happens in the next few months, it would be unwise to expect long-term relief from expensive energy.
Biofuel demand will make WTO accord possible
The booming demand for corn as a fuel source will make it easier for the US to agree to cuts in farm subsidies, making a new global trade agreement possible this year, the US ambassador to the EU said.
Greenfuel Technologies teams with IGV in Germany to turn greenhouse gases into biofuels
Under the terms of the agreement, GreenFuel and IGV will share proprietary algae bioreactor technology in an effort to accelerate the commercialization of biofuel production from recycled carbon dioxide in power plant flue gas emissions.
Hydrogen cars still a long way from take-off
The dream of hydrogen-powered cars emitting only water vapour is slipping further into the future as car companies grapple with some of the problems.
European Energy Group Says Wind Power Now Cost Competitive
Wind power in Europe is emerging as a cost-effective option to the more conventional power choices of coal and natural gas, as these power plants face increased costs and fuel risks, according to a new briefing from Emerging Energy Research (EER), an advisory firm that tracks emerging technologies in global energy markets.
Investing Cautiously in Solar Energy
Towards the beginning of the summer, as fuel prices were skyrocketing, the public and government started to seriously consider alternative forms of energy. The government has been offering tax-rebates for buyers of hybrid cars in an effort to promote the changeover. With this type of legislation, we can expect to see progress made in other types of environmentally friendly initiatives.
U.S. Sustainable Energy Announces Patent Pending for New Organic Biofuel
The new biofuel, referenced internally as SoyMazia 128, demonstrates several properties superior to any other green fuel source available, including a heating value of 128,000 BTU per gallon.The USSE biofuel costs less than fifty cents per gallon to produce, and 1 bushel of soybeans can create literally 5 gallons of biofuel - in comparison to 1.5 gallons for any other biodiesel on the market.
Syria says oil production witnessing gradual decrease
Syrian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Sufian Alaw said on Friday that the country's oil industry is facing great challenges as the production was witnessing a gradual decrease.
Venezuela minister threatens oil belt takeover
Venezuela's new economy minister warned yesterday the Opec nation could “nationalise” the multibillion dollar heavy crude projects in the Orinoco oil belt run by US and European companies if talks for the state to take a majority stake in the enterprises break down.
Africa: Continent 'Entitled to Reap the Benefits of Atomic Energy'
There must be no restrictions on African use of peaceful nuclear technology, speakers said at the continent's first conference on nuclear energy's contribution to sustainable development.
China's Middle East journey via Jerusalem
The crucial Saudi role in the proposed buildup of China's strategic oil reserves should not be underestimated. China is planning to build four strategic reserve bases at Zhenhai, Daishan, Xingang and Huangdao, which when completed next year will be able to hold the equivalent of one month's national oil imports. Beijing plans to expand the reserves to the equivalent of three months' net oil imports by 2015.
16 Asian nations to agree on boosting energy security
Leaders of 16 nations from South Korea to Singapore are expected to agree to boost Asia's energy efficiency and combat climate change by seeking new fuel sources, particularly biofuels, according to a draft document seen on Saturday.
Energy inefficiency could kill pure cellular
Noting that energy costs represent the third most expensive operating expense (OPEX) for carriers today — and that energy costs continue to fluctuate and could rise — the authors claim that the increase in data traffic resulting from the rise of mobile broadband "will push per-subscriber energy OPEX for cellular solutions past acceptable barriers".
Chavez promises Nicaragua 200-year oil supply
Venezuela will supply Nicaragua with 10,000 barrels of affordable oil per day, and build a refinery and 32 power stations that will produce 80 megawatts of electricity.'The oil that Nicaragua will need for the coming 200 years lies in Venezuela,' Chavez said.
Senate measure might threaten TXU's plans
A bipartisan Senate bill introduced Friday would place mandatory caps on global-warming gases and could threaten utility companies across the country that own coal-fired power plants — including TXU's plans to build new coal-fired plants in East Texas.
With three ethanol plants proposed for the Cape Fear region, some people want to know what else might arrive with the new jobs and tax revenue.
Pakistan: Nepra slams govt for forcing higher tariff
In an unprecedented move, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has protested against the government for what it called bulldozing the regulatory process by forcing higher tariffs in the name of energy crisis without providing even the basic information.
Pakistan: Need to expedite exploration of alternate energy emphasized
The seminar was aimed at initiating a constructive debate on the issue and finding out possibilities of viable energy and water options for the country. The speakers were of the view that rich Coal reserves in Pakistan can help meet the demands for over five decades.
American Chamber of Commerce says Dominican energy crisis grows
The Dominican Energy Consortium (CDEEE) is seeking a solution in the wrong place by pursuing renegotiations of contracts, when instead the solution lies in fighting fraud.
Lloyd's boss demands action on climate change
Governments and businesses must act now against climate change, and the United States needs a bigger public debate about its risks, the chairman of the Lloyd's insurance market said.Peter Levene warned that vast storms bigger than Hurricane Katrina are likely to batter the United States in coming years despite a relatively calm 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.
"Today the insurance industry faces the prospect of a 100-billion-dollar mega-catastrophe twice the size of Katrina," Levene said in a speech at Washington's National Press Club.
Global Warming Scare Hits Ski Country
Residents of Park City, Utah Turn Out in Force to Hear About Global Warming, and the News Wasn't Good
2nd Annual Indiana Energy Conference continues Saturday
The first speaker presentation will be from Richard Heinberg, a leading expert and author on the subject of Peak Oil. His presentation will focus on ways the average citizen can prepare themselves, and their communities, for a world that will be forced to be less dependent on petroleum for everything from transportation to agriculture.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Oil Down, Browne Down
The oil market is, as usual, performing a strange dance. It has opened the year showing great weakness with little signs of abating. As we mentioned last week this was not unexpected. But what is the most interesting development is that the $54.50-$55 floor price that has been so resilient over the past 18 months has finally been broken.
Someone wants to start a peak oil task force in Minneapolis.
Rich in oil and gas, Texas looks to geothermal
HOUSTON - Texas is known for oil and gas, but the state said on Friday it will sell its first leases for development of geothermal energy.
Aramco postpones Khursaniyah oil and gas project
According to an official at Saudi Aramco, the oil giant postponed the commissioning of the 500,000 bpd Khursaniyah oil and gas project to the fourth quarter of the year, a few months later than the previously announced date without giving the reason for the delay, Arab News reported.
Bulgaria wants to reopen two nuke units
Bulgaria will try to push the European Commission to let it reopen two nuclear reactors closed due to safety concerns.
Globalization Promotes Oil Depletion
Due to globalization and "free trade", more and more businesses are shutting down factories in nations with higher wages, moving production to low wage countries in East Asia, Eastern Europe, and Central America. People in higher-wage nations should not only look at this in terms of employment loss, but in depletion of oil and increased pollution.
Russia cuts duty on Belarus oil exports
MOSCOW - Russia has reportedly agreed to slash the duty on oil exports to Belarus by 70 percent and Belarus will share with Moscow a substantial amount of profits from the refined oil products it sells to Europe.
9 South Korean workers in Nigeria freed
LAGOS, Nigeria - Nine South Korean pipeline workers and a Nigerian kidnapped in southern Nigeria were released Friday with the help of a youth group in the restive oil region, the regional government said.
According to the figures I've seen, we reached the peak of world oil production in December 2005. If that is so, what does it mean for China?
Administration: No Plan To Strike Iran (AP)
We believe that we can interrupt these networks that are providing support through actions inside the territory of Iraq, that there is no need to attack targets in Iran itself," Gates told the panel, adding that he continues to believe that "any kind of military action inside Iran itself, that would be a very last resort.
Iran Policy is "good for Peak Oil".
Yeah, it's interesting after Emperor Junior's speech and then the capture of the Iranians by American soldiers, the price of oil didn't shoot up significantly yesterday.
If you listened to a lot of the idiocy at the beginning of this crusade, there were more than a number of people talking about blowing up the Middle East, it seems they're still in charge. Anyone thinks they can blow up the Middle East for less than $100-$200 a barrel, they really are crazy.
Or maybe everyone thinks its just more incompetence, but that's getting pretty expensive too.
Kevem, my friend.
Come one. I don't even really get it. That's how I know you are not an American. Golf balls in outer space. We get much dirtier than that now. Whatever.
I always loved you , Brother. When you wanna hang out, I'll give you some lines - John or Mary.
Movie response is horrible. Think they filmed it in 1987. Assholes. I need some pancakes. These douchemonkeys.
austex seems pretty cool. I wonder how much he knows about oil? Seems like a young Jimmy Martin. He should go back to Fenway if that's how it's gonna be, though.
You sure sound a lot like that rectal ooze, oilCEO
Swco posted this link last night.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/finanzas/55660.html
"The production of the main oil deposit of Mexico, Cantarell, will collapse drastically as of September of this year."
It is in Spanish and I would just love to read it. Can anyone translate it and post the text on TOD? It is quite short and should not be a problem.
Ron Patterson
Sure thing, old chap.
PEMEX WILL MAINTAIN PRODUCTION FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES [translator's best guess for a colloquialism]
It will produce 700 Mb/d less than last year
===
Production from Mexico's main oilfield, Cantarell, will fall rapidly from September this year.
According to the PEMEX 2007 Annual Operating Plan, the development will be producing 700 Mb/d less than the maximum achieved last year, which was 2.1 MMb/d.
With the remaining level of production from Cantarell it will be possible to maintain current levels of production of gasoline - in the Magna and Premium brands - which the country consumes. However, it is equivalent to 50% of the total run of PEMEX's six refineries.
The document, which EL UNIVERSAL has obtained, states that in the fourth quarter Cantarell will be producing 1.329 MMb/d due to its accelerating decline, which will make it harder to achieve the production and export targets fixed by the federal government fot this year.
The plan, which is the driver for the Mexican oil industry, states that as of the end of January of this year the reservoir, considered the sixth largest in the world, will produce 1.723 MMb/d on average, and in December it will be delivering 1.429 MMb/d. However, not even the additional volumes from the Ku-Maloob-Zaap development, which according to ex President Vicente Fox were going to offset the decline of Cantarell, will be enough to prevent the depletion of Mexico's exploitable reserves.
INVESTIGATION DEMANDED
Referring to the matter, Jorge Chavez Presa, the undersecretary for Energy Policy during the administration of Ernesto Zedillo, stated that it is necessary to undertake an audit of PEMEX's use of the additional resources which it received during Vicente Fox's administration, "which were much higher than its budget under the three previous administrations and which have not generated additional production or reserves, as we can see in Cantarell".
He stated that the ex president had not fulfilled his historic responsibility. "Every administration gave its successor the means to increase oil production. But Calderon inherited a declining industry".
Interviewed during the "2007 Seminar on Economic Perspectives on the Challenges for 2006-2012", organized by the Mexican Independent Institute of Technology, the professor said that there was a need for transparency and accountability in "a matter that affects us all".
"We need to know what happened to all the extra resources that PEMEX received. Was the wasted money invested under the PIDIREGAS framework? [translator's note: no idea what this is]. We need to be critical".
He explained that under Fox, institutions did not function properly, neither the State Comptroller nor the Senior Auditor, because "PEMEX had all the money in the world due to the high price of oil, and didn't know how to use it".
Better title
PEMEX STILL HAVING PRODUCTION PROBLEMS
literally
PRODUCTION FROM PEMEX IS STILL ITCHY
(A "Picada" is a big platter of several kind of finger food - hence my initial guess. I was too proud to use the help of Google Translate).
From a native Spanish speaker,
PEMEX PRODUCTION STAYS IN A NOSEDIVE
In Spanish Spanish, at least, "En picado" is the way airplanes fall when they stall.
http://www.spanishdict.com/AS.cfm?e=picado
Nice. Certainly seems to fit the facts as described in the article. But isn't the gender wrong? Not the first word to flip gender between the Old World and the New World, of course.
Thanks for the translation. You too, Plucky.
Looks like a steep drop off. Anyone have any estimates on how much Ku-Maloob-Zaap will be producing? Must be huge if they expect it to make up the difference.
This story says 200 Mb/d - doesn't even come close to plugging the gap:
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=28090
Remember that 200 Mb/d is an UPPER limit on production which MAY be reached at SOME TIME in the future...
My mistake. That 200 Mb/d is a capacity UPGRADE (FPSO). Following article says the project is/was ramping up to 800 Mb/d (last paragraph). I don't know if that includes the 200 in the other article. As before, upper limit, possible, future, sometime etc.
http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=content§ionID=8&catID=40&subca...
Yeah I remember reading about it in the past and it being a very big field.
I live in Texas and took a year of Spanish in college, but am defintely not fluent. Is this article saying that current production is 263 kpd and going to ramp up to 800 kpd by 2011?
Numbers are correct, but article is dated 2002. So a lot of that increase has already happened and won't be replacing Cantarell.
From the article, it sound like K-M-Z is a cluster of mini Cantarell clones. I think they might be offset fault blocks of the same formation. Certainly the process parameters are similar, on a smaller scale.
I've started to wonder what the post-peak decline rates are going to look like for some of these regions where one field accounts, or accounted, for half or more of their production. It's somewhat unusual for a large producing region to be so dependent on one oil field. For example, the East Texas Field only accounted for about 7% of Texas production in 1972, when we peaked.
One example of what happens when one big field declines is Alaska, which had about a 6% decline rate in the first 12 years or so after Prudhoe Bay peaked, versus a long term decline rate of about 2% for the Lower 48.
In any case, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Kuwait (all top 10 net oil exporters) are all in the same boat, hugely dependent on one oil field.
The problem is that, while these regions may show somewhat of a rebound in the future (but still well below their peak production), the short term decline rate in all three cases could be vicious, because they are so dependent on one field. Obviously, this appears to be precisely what we are seeing in Mexico.
No, the story says 200 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) not mbpd (million barrels per day). Please get the units right as it makes a rather large difference. Or, if you want to express it in mbpd, please do the conversion - 0.2mbpd.
Who? Stop raggin on the newbies. Teach'em how to do it. Member, Darwinian don't know the diff between a mill and a thousand, See what I'm seeing? Understand? Put your fuckin shirt on. Yo! ...We don't get fooled again... pick up my guitar and play... just like yesterday... the change it had to come... I knew it all along...
For goodness' sake let's not get into a flamewar over this. I would rather expend my energy on debating the date and nature of Peak Liquids, whether it's 90 Mbd, 90 mmb/d or even 85 million (were you confused by that?). Anyone who thinks that K-M-Z is producing 200 million barrels per day would probably misconstrue the entire article. There's nothing unusual about a language that requires meanings to be glarked from context - English would be a good example.
The upstream oil business takes a proudly independent view of unit system standardization. M, MM and MMM are customary abbreviations for thousand, million and (occasionally) billion. To confuse matters further, they can be either uppercase or lowercase. If we're being strictly metric (implied by k), wouldn't 200 mbpd be 200 milli-barrel-poise-day?
This will become a familiar song and dance; due to under/misplaced/bungled/poorly blah blah blah investments, the production from the Giga field will trend lower...never a mention of geology, because you can't beat up on geology and pass the buck.
Sadly, oil was the one thing that Mexico had going for it in a global trading situation. Shortly, they will be down to the, is it? 1.5 million barrels for domestic consumption, IF they aren't obliged to export that first and drive on the remainder. If the USA had the per capita oil consumption of Mexico it would be self sufficient. How about a Continental Energy Policy based upon per capita consumption and may the most efficient win? Given the solar potential of Mexico, I'd bet on a big transfer of capital. While business is presently chasing the lowest labor cost, at some point energy availability will drive location.
As I recall, Mexican hotels are required to have solar hot water heaters; in this regard they are ahead of us. Mind you, in Mexico it doesn't take much more than a bucket on the roof. But they have started.
'...because you can't beat up on geology and pass the buck.'
This is one of the things which makes peak oil such a pleasure - I grew up in a time when numerous lies and falsehoods were being exposed, and unquestioned beliefs being challenged, and then watched that process (with its own flaws, of course) come to a stop, and be written off as a 'low point' of American history.
When less comes out of the pipeline, and essentially ever less following that point, Americans can have a lovely discussion with reality. I, for one, expect to enjoy seeing how reality won't care about anyone's opinions (including mine - I am older now, and realize just how much evil humans do to one another, but hate is like that).
After all, they already dismissed people trying to deal with that problem decades ago.
In a way, it is amusing - when the American military left Karlsruhe, the base library was given as a gift to the city's library system. Over the years, as the library sold off its older books, I have collected a fairly interesting collection of 1970s books concering sustainable living, from organic gardening to insulation and building techniques to solar systems for heating and electricity. The amount of thought, talent, and wisdom in those books makes it hard to imagine they come from the same time and place in which magazines like People and Us were first launched.
Or not, seeing how America is today.
And as for some people who care about peak oil 'credibility' - the people concerned about this in 1978 weren't worried about 'credibility,' they were worried about how to live differently. Seems like they were the deluded ones, as Americans have no interest in being told how to live better, whether it is 6 weeks of vacation or universal health care, or functioning transit systems and walkable living spaces.
I, along with a good number of people, were wrong to think that oil production would clearly decline by the later 1980s, or before 2000. We weren't wrong in looking at what that meant, and how to prepare for it.
The future is now - enjoy it.
You need to watch SNL more. You shoulda seen the piece on the news about Steve Jobs and Apple. Don't get me started on Beckham.
The Future? You seen "Children of Men" yet, or what? They're talking about this as top ten this year. I'd say that's close. Read Slate. Saw it here last year. The Bond is always early.
I actually decided to check the phrase the 'future is now,' hoping for the Doonesbury strip - not often you read 'pox' in a comic, before realizing that the Doonesbury strips found on the net aren't indexed by text. It seems as if the expression is pretty commonly used - no surprise, but for some reason, I always thought it was a particularly apt expression from the end of the days when a true football fanatic was sitting in the White House. There are many things you can say about Nixon, but his attachment and understanding of football seems to have been a part of his life.
And this was the first time in my life America confronted massive abuse of presidential powers, a stupid and losing war where the solution was to expand it into surrounding countries, and a background of currency problems and no longer growing oil production. Which is a rear view memory, by the way.
Time for another martini - but Martini Bianco, which apparently has as much wormwood as absinthe, but less alcohol. Keeps the edge off, so to speak.
Thanks a million Plucky for this translation and posting.
Of course it is all Fox's fault. He should have figured out a way to keep Mexico's oil reservoirs from peaking and going into steep decline. Perhaps he should prayed to Our Lady of Guadeloupe to petation God to put more oil in the ground.
Sorry for the sarcasm but I just could not help it. Someone must always be at fault. Fault must always be found and the culprit must be ostracized from society.
Ron Patterson
edit:
nevermind better version already posted
Energy analyst and author David Shields has written extensively on Pemex. On NPR a few days ago, he predicted that overall Mexican production would fall by at least 800,000 bpd from late 2006 to 2007, because of the collapse in Cantarell's production--as predicted by the WSJ article last year.
In that article, the WSJ, quoting an internal Pemex report, noted that Cantarell's remaining oil column of about 800'--between an expanding gas cap and a rising water leg--was thinning at the rate of about 300' per year.
This is a link to an article about a presentation by Shields: http://socrates.berkeley.edu:7001/Events/spring2006/02-09-06-shields/ind...
If you scroll down, you will see an image of Shields pointing to a Cantarell Field production graph. He is pointing out the more optimistic decline rate that Pemex was using in public versus the more pessimistic, i.e. realistic, decline rate.
Mexico has the following characteristics:
(1) Its largest field, Cantarell (accounting for more than half of its recent production), is a prolific carbonate reservoir, with a rapidly thinning oil column, between an expanding gas cap and a rising water leg.
(2) It has consumed more than half of its recoverable reserves, based on the HL method.
(3) The operator has issued misleading information about the estimated decline rate of its largest field.
(4) Its production is declining.
Saudi Arabia has the following characteristics:
(1) Its largest field, Ghawar (accounting for more than half of its recent production), is a prolific carbonate reservoir, with a rapidly thinning oil column, between an expanding gas cap and a rising water leg.
(2) It has consumed more than half of its recoverable reserves, based on the HL method.
(3) The operator is strongly suspected of issuing misleading information about the estimated decline rate of its largest field.
(4) Its production is declining.
I have repeatedly described Ghawar and Cantarell--which account or accounted for about 10% of world crude oil production and which account or accounted for more than 20% of the net exporters by the top 10 net exporters in 2005--as two warning beacons burning brightly in the night sky, heralding the onset of Peak Oil.
As I pointed out yesterday, one of the odd things about the fourth quarter was the plunge in US oil imports, while Chinese oil imports were hitting new records. Let's see, where is Bush sending large US military forces?
Nope. Nothing to worry about. Continue buying large debt financed SUV's to drive to and from suburban mortgages.
Thanks for this propitiously timed thread, posters. Has anyone on this board heard of Larry Walker?
From www[dot]madisonpeakoil[dot]blogspot[dot]com
Mexico's Coming Oil Crisis
January 23
A presentation by Larry Walker
Madison, WI - Exact location will be posted here as soon as it's determined.
7:00 p.m.
Mexico's Cantarell oil field is about to play out a classic peak-and-rapid-decline scenario over the next 3 years. This will pose special challenges for Mexico's government, its national oil company Pemex, the U.S., and the world oil market.
Sponsored by Community Action on Latin America.
In English with Spanish translation.
More information from Carol Bracewell.
this will completely accelerate the illegal immigrant situation, where Mexico and Canada join the U.S. With one currency and probably one sovereignty! It's gonna be a mess, but Queen Hillary will be in charge by then.
but as long as there is ESPN, soap network, rosie vs donald, etc.... who the heck cares?
Saudi crude oil production (EIA data; crude oil = crude + condensate) dropped from 9.6 mbpd in 9/05 to a projected 8.5 mbpd in 2/07.
From 1/06 to 7/06, Saudi production dropped from 9.4 to 9.3 mbpd--by 100,000 bpd. The Saudi oil minister blamed the "voluntary" decline on an inability to find buyers, even for "their light, sweet oil."
Apparently, the Iraqis and Russians were looked harder for buyers, because they increased their production by 830,000 bpd from 1/06 to 7/06.
Let's see, for every barrel of oil that the Saudis couldn't find buyers for in July, relative to January, the Iraqis and Russians were able to sell 8.3 barrels.
Over this January to July time frame, US light, sweet spot prices went from $61.63 to $74.41 (I realize that different grades of crude sell for different prices in different parts of the world).
Two possibitlies:
(1) Saudi production is declining--as predicted by the mathematical and historical models--despite their best efforts, because of depletion or
(2) The Saudis are voluntarily cutting back production as oil prices hit the highest US nominal level in history--because they couldn't find buyers for all of their oil, even "their light, sweet oil"--while Iraq and Russia were able to sell an additional 830,000 bpd (even "their light, sweet oil") over the same time period.
Given that we have an example of the operator of the world's second largest oil field lying to the public about their largest field, which of these two scenarios for Saudi Arabia is more likely?
Did you notice that in Plucky's translation, Cantarell is "considered the sixth largest field in the world"? Would they be talking about remaining reserves in the field? Or have they never let their people know how big the field was to begin with?
The row over money at Pemex is interesting too: These things tend to easily get out of hand, in a volatile political climate combined with sharp decreases in resources AND revenues. Reminiscent of the GAO mentioning $450 bilion was missing from US coffers last year. Just disappeared. Just that Pemex revenues are an order of magnitude bigger for Mexico.
By the way, your Ghawar-Cantarell comparison looks solid and spot on. It's a really bright idea to use Ghawar to bankrupt Iran, the apparent latest bright genie to come from the White House basement.
6th in terms of reserves, 2nd in terms of production rate.
Ah, that explains the discrepencies.
I've always wondered about that.
Why? You're a democrat. No discrepancies there. I've never wondered about you. Tcck. Tcck! Tcck. Is this thing on? Heeellllloooo?
It is at times like these that I wish Super G would take me on as his personal consultant/trainer/publicist/trainer
...and change his name to...
Super Jihad
(ya gotta see Alexander and Colin to understand... and Athens and Ollie Stone)
Philip of freaking Macedon. You'll make a musician out of him yet! Sailorman will laugh so hard when he sees this movie his left nut will fall off.