DrumBeat: January 19, 2007

U.S. petroleum demand dipped in 2006

While oil companies reaped gargantuan profits in 2006 amid high prices, U.S. demand for petroleum dipped for the second year in a row, a trade group said Friday.

Total U.S. petroleum deliveries, a measure of demand, fell by roughly 1 percent to 20.6 million barrels per day, down from 20.8 million in 2005, which was below the 2004 level, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute.

The analysis was released one day after the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimated that oil demand in the world's industrialized countries declined by 0.6 percent in 2006. Global demand rose in 2006 due to the strength of consumption in China and the Middle East, but the world's appetite has grown at a slower pace for two straight years.

OPEC cuts estimated growth of oil demand in 2007 to 1.5 percent

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has revised downwards its estimate for growth in world oil demand this year to 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent.


U.S. drilling & completion estimates hit 21-year high

U.S. oil and natural gas drilling estimates for 2006 show that activity remains robust with nearly twice the level of activity recorded during the lows of the early to mid-1990s, API said.

According to API’s 2006 Quarterly Well Completion Report: Fourth Quarter, a 21-year high estimated 49,375 oil wells, natural gas wells and dry holes were completed in 2006. The fourth quarter’s estimated 12,439 completions were the highest since first quarter 1986.


Can the Saudis Back the Boast and Increase Crude Oil Production?

But since when has reality stopped people from trying impossible things? “Saudi Arabia plans to increase its crude oil production capacity nearly 40 percent by 2009 and double its refining size over the next five years to keep pace with growing global demand, the country’s oil minister said Thursday,” reports today’s International Herald Tribune. Take that, peak oilers!


2007: Renewable Energy Gets Real, Part Two

According to the IEA, in 2007 the supply growth outside of OPEC should roughly balance out the demand growth, which it will have to do, because OPEC production remains flat at 28.8 mbpd. Many peakers have observed that OPEC’s announced production cuts, particularly Saudi Arabia’s, may be simply a way to hide the fact that they’re in terminal decline and can’t do much about it.


Will 2007 be China's Year of Gasoline imports?

With a new car sold every six seconds in China, gasoline usage is set to accelerate to nearly 7 percent or 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. That is about as much as it exported in 2006.


Fears over Russia move to form Opec-style gas cartel

Russian Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko will visit Algeria this weekend, a trip that is likely to fuel European fears that Russia plans to co-opt other major gas exporters into forming an Opec-style cartel.


India needs diversified energy to fulfill requirements

India needs to tap diversified energy sources to fulfill its requirements, as nuclear power in itself is not sufficient, Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal said on Thursday.

"India would require around 3,00,000 MW of power by 2020 and nuclear would contribute, at best, around 10 per cent in the supply. Nuclear energy by itself is not an answer," he said at the Petrotech conference here.


Malaysia: Act now before oil reserves deplete


Sherritt, Ontario Fund Plan C$1.5 Billion Gas Project

Sherritt International Corp., a Canadian metals and oil producer, may join with Canada's third- biggest pension fund to build a C$1.5 billion ($1.28 billion) plant that would produce synthetic natural gas from coal.


The return of geo-politics

No one seriously doubts that oil security is behind the American move into the Gulf, the American bases in the ex-Soviet Stans, or the sudden interest by Washington in oil-rich regions of Africa. However, the US is in direct competition with booming China, rich Europe and Japan, newly assertive Russia, and a gaggle of other more or less developed nations, including fast-growing India.

This is not the “all boats are raised by the rising tide” situation of globalisation, but closer to old style naked imperial competition.


Viable Investment in Energy Complicated

Interesting moves are being played on the energy chessboard. While Hugo Chavez and Ahmedinejad are out to create a block of energy rich, "anti-imperialist" forces, it is now being reported Iraq's massive oil reserves, the third-largest in the world, are about to be thrown open for large-scale exploitation by Western oil companies under a "controversial law" to be shortly introduced before the Iraqi parliament.


Bulgaria: Nuclear re-opening attempts must continue

Bulgaria should try to re-negotiate the closure of units three and four of Kozloduy nuclear power plant, Economy and Energy Minister Roumen Ovcharov said.

On Thursday January 25, the Council of Ministers will examine an action plan of all the measures that could be undertaken to request the re-opening of the reactors, Focus news agency reported.


Iran Discovers New Onshore Oil Field

Iran has discovered a new onshore oil field with an estimated reserve of 2 billion barrels, state-run television reported Thursday.


North Korea: Let’s Share Electricity!

While North Korea’s electrical power supply worsens, North Korea’s Premier Park Bong Ju pushes for the expansion of energy supply and civil electrical support only to receive a personal punishment from authorities or in actual, his position changed.


Kazakh PM Calls for Tighter Control of Oil

Kazakhstan's new prime minister criticized foreign oil companies Thursday and ordered the government to tighten control over their activities in the energy-rich Central Asian nation, the government said.


Pakistan: Wind-power firms back out of tariff deal

With the energy crisis deteriorating, wind-power producers (WPPs) on Thursday backed out of an agreed power tariff of 9.5 cents per unit for sale to Pakistan, saying their input costs have increased substantially.


New Alaska Governor Pushes for Gas Pipeline

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told lawmakers Wednesday to soon expect legislation outlining the process for a natural gas pipeline.

..."This gas line, it's going to fuel our homes, our economy, and careers for Alaskans -- for generations," she said. "This gas line is critical not just for our future, though, but for the nation's future."


Global warming 'just a natural cycle'

Global warming comes and goes in 1,500 year cycles which may have more to do with cosmic rays than fossil fuel emissions, according to a new book.


Bush resists growing pressure to curb global warming

The battle over global warming is heating up, with President George W. Bush refusing to limit greenhouse gas emissions despite growing pressure from the Democrat-led Congress and around the world.


Global warming becomes hot topic on Capitol Hill

Facing the loss of the committee gavel he used to block global warming legislation, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) urged corporate executives late last month to keep up the fight against greenhouse gas emission limits.


Companies press Bush, Congress on climate: reports

Major corporations are joining environmental groups to press President Bush and Congress to address climate change more rapidly, news reports said on Friday.

The coalition, including Alcoa Inc., General Electric Co., DuPont Co., and Duke Energy Corp. plans to publicize its recommendations on Monday, a day ahead of the president's annual State of the Union address, The Wall Street Journal reported.


Roscoe Bartlett: Peak oil production - Text of his speech.


A Light Bulb Goes on, and China Starts Thinking ‘Alternative Energy’

China has voracious energy needs and “the most serious environmental problem in the world,” said Jerry Li, a consultant in Beijing who matches venture capitalists with entrepreneurs. “There is a huge demand for investment” in alternative solutions, he said.


EU bio-fuel demand threatens Indonesian forests

Growing European Union demand for bio-fuel could threaten Indonesia's last remaining forests as the government approves new palm oil plantations, environmental group Greenpeace warned Thursday.


Weekly Offshore Rig Review: Washington Wishes - a rundown of how the House energy bill will affect oil companies.


Traffic disaster towers over L.A.

"I no longer go to Dodger games, or the L.A. Philharmonic…. I only go out to dinner at restaurants within two miles of my house."


Traffic calming can make Bangor a better place to live

Looked at from a larger perspective, can we plan for a city of truly calm neighborhoods in which we can walk to work or the grocery store — a city with less than 2.1 cars per family? Peak oil will occur in 2020. The days of affordable gasoline are limited. Some of the city’s traditional neighborhoods are well suited to life without the automobile. We need to preserve them and return neighborhoods to neighbors while supporting economic growth.


Oil Will Dominate for Next 100 Years, Predicts Shell: Nothing in the pipeline can replace oil

Mr. Macias said the worldwide infrastructure designed to explore, extract, and refine oil is so vast and established that virtually no economic force could justify its replacement. Oil companies like Shell think a more realistic outcome is that more efficient fossil fuels will take up more of the functions at those plants.


Blast causes partial disruption at Kuwait refinery

KUWAIT CITY - A fire sparked by a gas pipeline blast caused a partial disruption at one of Kuwait's three oil refineries but exports by the oil-rich emirate were not affected, officials said.


Power players warm to Feinstein bill

Plan to reduce electric utilities' greenhouse gas emissions by 25% gets industry backing.


Texas view on environment is 18 lanes wide

HOUSTON - As President Bush readies a new plan on global warming, environmentalists say an 18-lane highway going up in Houston speaks volumes about how people in his home state of Texas view the planet.


Hawking warns: We must recognise the catastrophic dangers of climate change

Professor Hawking said that we stand on the precipice of a second nuclear age and a period of exceptional climate change, both of which could destroy the planet as we know it.


Global warming dissenters few at U.S. weather meeting

[Joe] D'Aleo, executive director of the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project, a group of scientists, doesn't think greenhouse gas emissions are the major cause of global warming and climate change.

Researchers who hold such contrary views do not appreciate being lumped together with flat-Earthers. They are legitimate scientists who question the mainstream, but they are a distinct minority.


House passes bill forcing Big Oil to pay

With the price of crude falling, Big Oil faces another big headache on Capitol Hill.

The House passed a bill Thursday evening to raise nearly $15 billion in taxes through a combination of higher royalties, added fees and a reversal of tax breaks handed out by the Bush administration and Republican Congress.


White House Attacks House Offshore Royalty Bill

The White House yesterday came out against several tax and royalty provisions in House energy legislation expected to pass today, warning that the measure as written could delay future oil and natural gas lease sales.


Iraq: Kerosene shortage spurs thriving resale market

Lines at the stations often stretch for blocks, and fuel can take all day to get.

That's why many Iraqis are willing to pay a premium to buy their fuel from men such as Moayid Ouda, Sha'alan's owner, who sells a liter of kerosene for around 80 cents.

"The fuel and kerosene crisis drew a lot of people to this business," Ouda said.

So many, in fact, that prices for donkeys and horses have soared since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Hardan Karrar, another kerosene vendor, said he has been amazed by the flood of new vendors trying to break into the trade.

Karrar's horse, which could be sold for $100 to $250 before 2003, today would bring $8,000 on the open market, he said.

Hello TODers,

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/23061.html
--------------------------------------------------
Pemex predicts production drop

The progressive decline in Mexico´s capacity to produce oil is rapidly becoming more worrisome than the slump in global crude prices.

The first symptoms of a genuine oil crisis are becoming more and more evident.

Documents acquired by EL UNIVERSAL indicate Pemex will be forced to cut back on exports to the United States. The reduction could reach 150,000 barrels per day in the next four years. In the final two years of the Calderón administration, the reduction could reach 500,000 barrels per day.
---------------------------------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Keep those Latin American updates coming, Bob, they're fascinating.

Mexico looks like it'll be the first big peak-oil victim.

The first symptoms of a genuine oil crisis are becoming more and more evident.

Expect to see more and more new stories like this in the months ahead.

BTW, David Shields is putting the decline in Pemex production this year at least 800,000 bpd, apparently from 12/06 to 12/07. IMO, the only real difference between Pemex & Cantarell and Aramco & Ghawar (other than production rates) is that Pemex has (grudgingly) admitted to the production decline at Cantarell, while still trying to hide their true estimate of the production decline.

A question regarding oil prices

The most commonly quoted oil price in the US is West Texas Intermediate, or light/sweet crude oil. So, why is the Total Liquids production number used so widely?

It's like pricing meat based on the steak price, but when you ask how many pounds of meat a butcher has, he gives you the number of pounds of beef, chicken, pork, soy protein, etc.

If we are going to talk about dollars per barrel of light/sweet crude oil, why don't we stick to barrels per day of crude + condensate? Or, if you are going to talk about Total Liquids, shouldn't you talk about the prices of crude oil, propane, butane, ethanol, Orimulsion, etc.?

Edit:

I think I made a mistake on the David Shields reference. I thought I heard this NPR story in 2006, but it looks like it was on 1/2/07, so I think that Shields is talking about a 800,000 bpd drop from 2007 to 2008.

NPR story:

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2007/01/02/PM200701024.html
Pemex faces change or drying up
Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Mexico's main source of oil is the Cantarell field. It's the second most productive field in the world after one in Saudi Arabia. And Cantarell's running dry.

DAVID SHIELDS: Cantarell is probably going to decline very sharply in the next three years, starting now.

That's energy analyst David Shields, author of two books on Pemex.

SHIELDS: Mexico currently produces just under 3.3 million barrels a day. We can expect production to fall to 2.5 million barrels a day, or perhaps even less next year.

Hello WT,

The key question is:

Does Bush & Calderon believe Pemex, or David Shields on who has the more accurate depletion rate, and what are they planning to do about it?

Either way, learning Spanish could be a big plus here in the US in the years ahead.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az ¿Son los seres humanos más elegantes que la levadura?

I don't think that it is a coincidence that just as we see accumulating evidence of contracting net export capacity worldwide that we see a massive expansion of the US military presence in the Middle East.

From 2004 to 2005, it looks like Mexico's domestic total liquids consumption increased by 5%. Shields is estimating a one year decline in production of about 25%.

If Shields is right, Mexico's net total liquids exports could drop from 1.7 mbpd in 2005 to 500,000 bpd in 2008. This is consistent with the WSJ article last year. I think that they said that Mexico could cease to be a net exporter by as soon as 2010.

WT,
Do you know roughly how much oil the US imports from Mexico? I thought it was a good sized chunk.

Here are two tables. Crude & Total Petroleum Products. Sorry for the crappy formatting. u can get see the originating tables at EIA:

Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Nov-06 Oct-06 YTD 2006 Nov-05 Jan - Nov 2005

CANADA 2,065 1,704 1,778 1,756 1,609
MEXICO 1,462 1,481 1,606 1,658 1,542
SAUDI ARABIA 1,444 1,322 1,417 1,267 1,445
VENEZUELA 1,069 1,125 1,146 1,009 1,246
NIGERIA 919 1,049 1,046 1,163 1,068
IRAQ 589 505 567 572 540
ANGOLA 505 506 504 658 458
ALGERIA 253 449 352 265 230
KUWAIT 253 234 180 273 223
ECUADOR 243 315 274 264 270
BRAZIL 156 171 134 65 88
UNITED KINGDOM 119 74 131 229 241
CHAD 118 109 93 33 78
NORWAY 81 120 97 103 124
AZERBAIJAN 77 88 23 0 0

Total Imports of Petroleum (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Nov-06 Oct-06 YTD 2006 Nov-05 Jan - Nov 2005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CANADA 2,584 2,144 2,291 2,305 2,149
MEXICO 1,571 1,646 1,730 1,777 1,650
SAUDI ARABIA 1,489 1,382 1,459 1,370 1,543
VENEZUELA 1,234 1,354 1,418 1,258 1,529
NIGERIA 972 1,088 1,124 1,248 1,158
IRAQ 589 505 567 572 545
ANGOLA 521 536 526 675 476
ALGERIA 462 813 648 500 485
VIRGIN ISLANDS 327 335 325 303 327
UNITED KINGDOM 275 205 276 504 410
KUWAIT 259 239 185 289 239
ECUADOR 248 322 281 264 277
RUSSIA 223 381 370 217 423
BRAZIL 182 221 195 151 148
NORWAY 165 181 196 232

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_l...

¿Son los seres humanos más elegantes que la levadura?

It's not that I speak Spanish really well, but using those web based translators doesn't always work. It translated smarter as smartly dressed. So it comes off like, "Are humans more elegant than yeast?" That's also a good question. But for the next post on a Spanish web site try, "¿Son los seres humanos más inteligentes que la levadura?"

Hello Brianf,

Thxs for the correction! I just quickly plugged my tagline into Babelfish-- it didn't seem quite right to me either, but I had to leave.

"3.3 million barrels a day. We can expect production to fall to 2.5 million barrels a day."

Thats a 24% decline!

Leanan

Your links are such rich sources that when I try to read what is interesting there is no time to actually contribute to debates in the comments anymore.

I really appreciate your efforts as well, Leanan. It is a better source of energy related news than any pay site I subscribe too. Thanks for your daily toil.

I second, er... third that. Thank you.

Yes. I try to skip all but the most important, but they are all important and I end up coming back to the ones I skip. Thanks for this invaluable service.

Absolutely agreed

Thank you very much. Actually it's the drumbeats i care for most here at TOD, and in particular your collection of headlines.

Hello TODers,

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070119.RTORTILLA19/TP...
------------------------------------
Mexico caps tortilla price to aid poor, stem inflation

MEXICO CITY -- Mexican President Felipe Calderon unveiled measures to stem a surge in prices for corn tortillas, the mainstay of the country's diet, as eroding support among the poor threatens to undermine his 48-day-old presidency.

Mr. Calderon said retailers such as Grupo Bimbo SA, Mexico's largest baker, agreed to hold tortillas at less than 8.5 pesos (78 cents U.S.) a kilogram, about 2.5 pesos below the current top price. The country's retailers group, which counts about 1,900 members including Wal-Mart de Mexico SA, will price tortillas at no more than 6 pesos per kilogram.

"The tortilla is the principal component of the Mexican diet and a fundamental staple for those who have the least," Mr. Calderon said in a message broadcast yesterday from the presidential residence. "The unjustified increase in this product threatens the economy of millions of families and their quality of life."

Mr. Calderon, who warned in his campaign last summer that rival Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would unleash inflation, now faces a rise in food prices that has pushed a kilogram of tortillas to about one-fifth the daily minimum wage. The jump in tortillas, a component of core inflation, may force the central bank to raise interest rates, exacerbating an economic slowdown that would leave in tatters Mr. Calderon's election pledge to create jobs.
-------------------------------------------------

Gee, didn't Pres. Mugabe of Zimbabwe do the same thing--fix prices on maize and raise interest rates till his people were starving and they had the world's highest inflation rate?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Regardless of Mugabe's poor/corrupted management choices the core source of the price inflation for food products in Zimbabwe would appear to be the horrifying drought that has been occuring in Africa.

Here's a scary discussion on PeakOil.com
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic26230.html

Here's a PDF from 2005 stating that maize crops in Zimbabwe are only 25% of consumption:
http://www.worldfoodprize.org/assets/YouthInstitute/05proceedings/Pinker...

That creates price inflation due to very constrained demand. It's a die off in progress.

Corruption might be exacerbating the effects, but it's certainly not root of the problem.

EDIT - In terms of food prices. The article you linked is horrifying, as are those in the PeakOil thread.

My impression is that Mugabe's heavy-handed land redistribution program took resources away from those who understood something about how to manage them and gave them to people who were less capable. This would seem to be another sigficant factor in the current crisis.

I wouldn't be so sure. In 2005, at the same time that Zimbabwe could only produce 25% of it's grain needs, Botswana, it's neighbor to the East (both in central Africa with no mountains inbetween, should have similar weather) was only able to grow 10% of it's grain needs.

My assumption is that Botswana is not as corrupt as Zimbabwe, or else it would be in the news as much.

http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=48086

I take that as a clear sign that the political sitation isn't leading the food issues. Maybe the food issues are leading the politics?

There doesn't appear to be grain production info for 2006 yet but the drought has continued as far as I know.

Mmmmm... Ominous. A reminder that we shouldn't blithely dismiss the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns.

You should read "Blood and Thunder". Food or the lack of was a big factor in wars of the mid 1800's in the US SW. Interesting reading - oil-less wars

Tarzan wrote:

My impression is that Mugabe's heavy-handed land redistribution program took resources away from those who understood something about how to manage them and gave them to people who were less capable.

Jturpin replied:

I wouldn't be so sure. In 2005, at the same time that Zimbabwe could only produce 25% of it's grain needs, Botswana, it's neighbor to the East (both in central Africa with no mountains in-between, should have similar weather) was only able to grow 10% of it's grain needs.
My assumption is that Botswana is not as corrupt as Zimbabwe, or else it would be in the news as much.

Jturpin, that is just flat wrong. Botswana is not Zimbabwe. Go back 20 years, when Zimbabwe was the breadbasket of Africa and then compare the differences between Botswana and Zimbabwe. Botswana has about one eighth the population of Zimbabwe though Botswana is about one third larger in area than Zimbabwe. But about 8.25 percent of Zimbabwe’s land is arable while only .65 percent of Botswana’s land is arable.

Botswana has one of the most corrupt regimes in Africa. The difference is, they have always been corrupt and Zimbabwe has only been corrupt since the reign of Mugabe. And there has been no genocide in Botswana while Mugabe is trying to reduce the population of Zimbabwe from over 12 million to around 6 million. The population of Zimbabwe was around 15 million just a few years ago.

The point is, Zimbabwe produced enough grain to feed half of Sub-Sahara Africa before Mugabe, now Zimbabwe cannot feed half its own population. The collapse of the most productive agricultural area of Africa can be blamed on the corrupt government and nothing else.

A side note, the life expectancy of Zimbabwe is 39.29 years, of Botswana it is 33.74 years, the lowest in the world. Aids and starvation are the two primary killers in both countries.

Ron Patterson

Gee, I thought Botswana was doing pretty well, except for the HIV thing. From Discover:

Botswana seems an unlikely place for an AIDS epidemic. Vast and underpopulated, it is largely free of the teeming slums, war zones, and inner-city drug cultures that epidemiologists say are typical niches for the human immunodeficiency virus. Botswana is an African paradise. Shortly after gaining its independence from Britain in 1966, large diamond reserves were discovered, and the economy has since grown faster—and for longer—than that of virtually any other nation in the world. Education is free, corruption is rare, crime rates are low, and the nation has never been at war. Citizens are loyal: A visitor quickly learns that even mild criticism of anything related to Botswana is considered impolite. Yet this country, with all these advantages, has the highest HIV-infection rate in the world.

Meanwhile Afghanistan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia have a low rate of AIDS infection.

AIDS instead of being treated as a deadly communicable disease, like tuberculosis, has become hyper-politicized battleground where many people on both sides of the political spectrum refuse to acknowledge the basic medical reality of the situation. AIDS is not caused by high crime, war, corruption, poverty, or lack of non AIDS prevention related education. For example, Afghanistan has lots of crime, war, corruption, poverty, and little education and Botswana is the reverse.

How can you say a country is doing “pretty good” when they have the lowest life expectancy in the world? And the government is deliberately trying to starve the bushmen to death.

FIAN, the Germany-based international human rights organisation campaigning for the right to adequate food, is calling for supporters to write to President Mogae of Botswana demanding an end to his government's 'deliberate starvation policy and hunger blockade' of the Bushmen's reserve. 'The survival of this group that is resisting removal is now at stake and their death is imminent if the Botswana government does not immediately end this grave violation of the right to food,' reads the bulletin.
http://www.hollynear.com/africa.page/current.html

True, it is probably only the bushmen and AIDS orphans in Botswana who are starving.

Others, including women and children, have been arrested for attempting to bring food and water to relatives inside the reserve. Seseto Moeti (31) said, 'I went to try to visit my husband inside the reserve and my children and I were shot with tear gas and arrested. While I was still in prison my husband was evicted from the reserve.'
http://www.survival-international.org/related_material.php?id=448

But this is not the way a “pretty good” or “non corrupt” government behaves.

Ron Patterson

Hello Jturpin,

Thxs for responding. Agreed, the drought + Overshoot is the root cause of Zim's problems, but corruption and stupidity are certainly making things worse:

http://allafrica.com/stories/200701161080.html

What would be the reason for building the sewage treatment plants ABOVE the initial freshwater source? What a waste of energy! This boggles my mind because basic common engineering sense dictates that crap should flow DOWNHILL. Also, if it can be easily forseen that the sewage system is becoming dysfunctional--why didn't the civic leaders headoff problems by setting up a Humanure Recycling Program to prevent worse sanitation & pollution problems?

What will Phx, Dallas, LA, NYC, etc do postPeak if they let their sewage systems decay towards non-functionality? Imitate Zimbabwe with neighborhoods flooding with raw sewage and non-potable water sources-- or will they preemptively move to alternative sanitation systems that require much less energy to protect public health?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

We would do very well to learn from the lessons that are occuring in Africa. Instead we seem to ignore them completely (aid isn't the answer, but there isn't even awareness, and I'm certain we won't learn anything because "that couldn't happen to us").

I don't think these are lessons we can avoid, but they could be mitigated to some degree (just finished rereading part of Diamond's Collapse and now I'm into The Upside of Down per the article on it last week, great book).

It's taken 30 years for Mugabe's situation to come to a head. There's a lot more to this situation than his decisions.

Their inability to obtain/afford (doesn’t matter which in general, in this case it’s afford) energy and drought killing off their food supplies are probably the greatest factors aside from politics. According to Wikipedia the farm land transfers and such started in 1999. The Pinkerton PDF in my original post says Zimbabwe couldn't produce enough grain for the population between 1995 and 1997. So the land transfers occured after that. Again that's why I believe the drought and access to energy are the primary problems in Zimbabwe. Failed political attempts to fix the problems, as bad or misguided as they are, can't solve the problems or even start to address them.

But we never really look at the whole picture anyway. Consider how focused we are on the export situation (thank you West Texas, your export land model is excellent) that we don’t consider what happens to exporters as their exports dry up. They face the end of their riches. Iran is facing just that situation in a few years (and there’s already unrest in the country). The net result of descreasing exports will simply be the end of globalization (exports of all products will dry up as transport fuel will be in short supply, besides, the large oil exporters are not huge manufacturing bases which contributes to the issue).

I expect we will hit this wall at full speed (given current oil prices maybe we can ramp over the problem ala Evil Knievel…).

Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die. Dave Matthews, Tripping Billies

You are entirely missing the dynamic here jturpin. It is much more fun to pin the blame on nappy headed maroons than to recognize climate change. And of course many at TOD still totally deny climate change. In any case facts don't matter.

Bob, excellent.

"one-fifth the daily minimum wage"

So, readers of TOD, how would YOU feel spending 20% of your income on food?

I don't think you can jump to the conclusion that poor Mexicans are spending 1/5 of their income on food based on the fact that a kilogram of tortillas cost 1/5 of minimum wage. That would require that they ate 2.2 pounds of tortillas a day, and ate nothing else. We don't know that either of those things is true.

In the end the 1/5 of income number may be reasonable, but you can't say that based on the facts given.

I wonder how much of Mexico's corn comes from the US, and whether the run-up on corn prices because of surging demand from ethanol production has much to do with Mexico's problems. If Zimbabwe's poor are suffering from the effects of peak oil, perhaps Mexico's poor are the first to suffer from the US' ethanol mania...

I think a lot of Americans are spending 1/5 of their wage for food, in fact, 1/5 of the earnings of a family of 6 as mentioned in the original article, isn't bad. I don't know about the American a lot of you live in, but in the one I've lived in all my life, that's not doing that badly - just jarring if food always cost you say 1/10.......

Bimbo is a huge multinational corp., it's in Spain too, and in the US. Go into any 7-11 and you can find Bimbo treats, and I'll eat the Mexican/Mexican style stuff before the American stuff, less sugar and junk. I was in the Hotal Alfa in Barcelona once and looked out the window, and there's this large building with old-fashioned stand-up letters on the roof, that say: BIMBO. It was quite a laugh.

I listened to an awful lot of Coast To Coast AM junk hoping to hear Matt Savinar as promised, but nope, no Matt.

Hello Rose Selavy,

Perhaps you missed my article from yesterday, but Mexico is building ethanol plants in Sinaloa too:

http://www.truthabouttrade.org/article.asp?id=6862

According to this link:

http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/homeland.php?id=590505
------------------------------------------------------------
One can understand why Mexicans, the largest component of illegal aliens, come to the U.S. In Mexico, they are typically paid only $5.00 per day for their labor. When wages for Mexican workers rise, the peso is conveniently devalued to keep Mexico competitive with foreign countries like China and India. The owners of Mexican businesses often keep their money in dollars in American banks and escape the devaluation of their currency. Between that and the thoroughly corrupt government, the common people are forever doomed to poverty. Without a revolution in Mexico, America is their only hope.

The influx of illegal immigrants has effectively "imported about 10 million high school dropouts into the United States," said Robert Rector, a senior research fellow in welfare and family issues for the Washington, D.C.-based think tank.”
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So if your income is really low to start with [$5/day], spending 1/5 of your income or more for just for 1 kg of tortillas really hurts [$0.78]! I think many SUV-owning Americans can outbid the poor Mexican on a fuel vs food basis, and wealthier Mexicans will do the same--I expect many Mexican farmers to quickly switch from growing white corn to General Motors motto of "Go Yellow" corn. I wonder if Calderon wants to subsidize the Mex. Ethanol industry.

From this link:

http://www.coha.org/2006/07/26/corn-versus-sugar-based-substitute-fuels/
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According to the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service’s report on 2006 corn exports, Mexico receives about 15 percent of the U.S. commodity while other Latin American countries such as Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, and Guatemala take in another 15 percent.

Warren R. Staley of Cargill, a multinational U.S. agricultural giant, expressed concern about corn supplies in a New York Times interview, “Unless we have a huge increase in productivity, we will have a huge problem with food production … and the world will have to make choices.”

For example, corn farmers from the state of Sinaloa in northwestern Mexico have been growing corn comparable to that of the U.S. product in quality, but Sinaloa is located quite far from most corn buyers in Mexico. Because of this, transporting the grain is expensive, and when Sinaloan corn finally reaches the market, buyers find that the price is much higher than U.S.-imported corn. However, if the price for U.S. corn continues to increase, shipping Sinaloan corn may become the cheaper option.
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The article fails to mention that the most likely destination for this Mexican corn is the US. Consider:

Converting this Mex corn to ethanol, then selling it to the Gringos into nearby California, Arizona will be much more profitable than trying to truck the grain the thousands of mile south to Southern Mexico [check out a map]. The Southwest US doesn't grow much corn compared to the Midwest. Cheap mexican ethanol vs expensive Midwest ethanol--a no-brainer! Cargill & ADM have made their choice--poor Mexicans will be forced to grow their own corn, immigrate, or starve. Such is life.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

This result was predicted long ago before NAFTA became law and was a primary argument against it. Massive amounts of subsidized US corn were dumped on the Mexican market, driving campesinos off their land into the cities and over the border to El Norte. Now that their production no longer exists, less corn is available as prices