DrumBeat: January 23, 2007

Bush to call for sharp cutback in gas consumption

President Bush, in Tuesday's State of the Union address, will propose a plan to cut U.S. gasoline consumption by 20 percent while bolstering inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Republican sources say.

The president's plan to cut gasoline use includes tightening fuel economy standards on automakers and relying on alternative energy sources, such as hybrid cars, the sources say.

Bush would propose achieving the 20-percent cut in gasoline use in the next 10 years, according to the sources. He will also propose the U.S. produce 35 billion gallons of renewable fuel such as ethanol by 2017, according an official who was briefed on the speech.

How Iraq and climate change threw the right into disarray

Global warming poses a fundamental challenge to the right's faith in markets. It is, as Gordon Brown, chancellor, puts it "the world's biggest market failure".

Worse, most of the proposed remedies for global warming involve things the right traditionally abhors. There is global governance in the form of monster international accords such as the Kyoto treaty. There are restrictions on individual liberty as the clamour grows to tax people out of their cars and off their cheap flights. There is a new emphasis on localism as opposed to globalisation. There is also a backlash against the idea that faster economic growth is always desirable or sustainable.


Calderón ready to press for reforms

On Pemex, the state-run oil monopoly, Calderón is also clear on the need for big changes.

"We are experiencing a real fall in oil reserves ... and that forces us to innovate and seek mechanisms which, without giving up hegemony or sovereignty of our reserves, provide Pemex with investment schemes that give it much greater margin to invest more, to explore more."


Norway Energy Minister: Arctic Reserves Key for Energy

"If the U.S. Geological Survey is right, 25% of the world's undiscovered petroleum reserves could be found in the Arctic. Thus, the Arctic region could be part of the solution to the growing energy needs of the world," said Oil Minister Odd Roger Enoksen in opening a conference on the northern region.


We need to act quickly on energy crisis

Connecticut has to act quickly in the face of an impending global energy crisis, according to House Speaker James Amann.

...The demand for oil around the world, especially in countries like China and India where industrial growth is soaring, is changing the dynamics for energy, he said.

"We have competition for oil like never before," said Amann.


Reports: Russian audit chamber says 'significant' violations at Total oil project

MOSCOW: France's Total SA had committed "significant" environmental violations at an Arctic oil and gas development, Russia's financial watchdog said Monday, according to news reports.


Uganda: Reduce Your Power Costs, Use Energy-Saving Bulbs

There are two sides to the imbalanced energy equation - supply and demand, making strategies for increasing energy efficiency an equally important consideration.


The draining of Africa’s wealth

For example, in Gabon, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in 2002 was $3,370, which is fairly high because of oil wealth. But net savings per capita is negative $1,183. That’s the most extreme case. But the pattern is true of virtually all of the African resource-extractive economies. The two most intensive cases, by the way, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), aren’t even listed because they don’t have enough data.

There you see the process of extraction of Africa’s wealth without reinvestment.


NATO’s Hidden Terrorism

However, the true reason for this war is the control of energy resources. This is due to the fact that the geology, the richness in gas and oil, are concentrated in the Muslim countries. He who wants to monopolize them, must hide behind this type of manipulations. We cannot say that there is not a lot of oil left because the global production - the ’peak oil’ [12] - is going to arrive probably before 2020, and that therefore oil must be taken from Iraq, because people would say that children must not be killed to obtain oil. And they are right. They can’t be told, either, that in the Caspian Sea there are huge reserves and that there is a plan to create a pipeline that would go to the Indian Ocean but, given that it’s is not allowed to go through the South of Iran or the North of Russia, it must pass through the East, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, and therefore, this country must be under control. That is why Muslims are labelled as "terrorists".


South Africa: Eskom Has R97bn Plan to Beef Up Electricity And Beat Cuts

Amid a growing furore over countrywide powercuts this week, Eskom said the government had approved a R97 billion plan to boost infrastructure as part of a range of long-term measures to avert future cuts.

But consumers would have to pay more for electricity to sustain the infrastructure, which is set to come under even heavier pressure as demand grows over the next two decades.


Japan’s demand for small cars hits profits

Japan’s carmakers, on a global expansion spree, are seeing margins increasingly squeezed in their home market as consumers turn to cheaper, more fuel-efficient minicars.


GM places bets on alternative fuel vehicles

By showing the Chevrolet Volt plug-in electric concept car this month at the North American International Auto Show, General Motors Corp. has staked its reputation -- and a large chunk of change -- on developing cars and trucks that can be propelled by something other than just gasoline.


Saudi's Naimi aims for moderate oil price

Saudi Arabia is aiming for moderate oil prices and assured Japan on Tuesday of supplies from the world's top crude producer in case of emergencies, during a tour by its oil minister Ali al-Naimi of key Asian consumer nations.


Alternative fuel research might prevent crisis

In tonight's State of the Union address, President George W. Bush may borrow a few ideas on energy from former President Jimmy Carter. News organizations anticipate part of Bush's speech will address calls for increased funding of alternative fuels research and less dependence on foreign oil.


Congress will end up reducing energy supply

It's simple economics: The more Washington taxes the oil companies, the less money they have to invest in developing new energy sources.


Bush set to give ethanol industry its biggest boost yet

In his State of the Union address, President George W. Bush is expected to call for a huge increase in the amount of ethanol that refiners mix with gasoline, perhaps to as much as 60 billion gallons, or 227 million liters, annually by 2030 — an amount equal to more than 40 percent of the country's current gasoline consumption.


27th annual Eco-Farm Conference starts Wednesday

For every calorie of food produced by agriculture, 10 calories of fossil fuel is burned.

It's an expensive habit the United States is going to have to change as the supply of oil and gas dwindles and the prices continue to skyrocket, according to Richard Heinberg, a noted author and professor from Santa Rosa.


Solar Power Goes to Washington: Solar power's success in lobbying Congress could benefit investors.


Brazil To Gain 123 New Biofuel Plants By 2010

Brazilian companies and other investors are likely to invest an estimated 17.4 billion Brazilian reals ($8.1 billion) in the country’s biofuels sector over the next four years, which should yield a confirmed 77 new ethanol mills and 46 new biodiesel plants by 2010, said the Energy Ministry on Monday.


Phillipine government projects P1.3-B savings with biofuels

The Phillipine government projects a savings of $26-million or about P1.3-billion worth of fuel imports with the initial implementation of the 2006 Biofuels Act.


Crown to assess NZ biofuel potential

A deal announced today between two Crown Research Institutes and a US company is said to open up the possibility of New Zealand's entire vehicle fleet ultimately running on biofuels grown and manufactured in this country.


Patrick Holden (Soil Association director) on Peak Oil and the Transition Towns concept


Weighing In on City Planning: Could smart urban design keep people fit and trim?

Lawrence Frank is no couch potato. Taking full advantage of his city's compact design, the Vancouver, British Columbia, resident often bikes to work and walks to stores, restaurants, and museums. That activity helps him stay fit and trim. But Frank hasn't always found his penchant for self-propulsion to be practical. He previously lived in Atlanta, where the city's sprawling layout thwarted his desire to be physically active as he went about his daily business.


Back from the Grave: A Look at U.S. Nuclear Power


Sharon Astyk: Am I romanticizing poverty?

Someone who reads my blog recently emailed me with the accusation that my Community Solutions Paper and my writings in general are a call to mass, collective return to poverty, and that I'm intentionally romanticizing subsistence agriculture. And I started wondering, am I?


Calling an end to oil alarmism

OIL PRICES have ended their steep ascent -- for now -- and are headed downward. The near-universal alarm among politicians, pundits, and consumers over America's dependency on foreign oil has yielded to a wary sense of relief. But both the prior alarm and the current relief are misguided.


Oil Sands Projects Steam Ahead in Alberta, Despite Harper

The Bush administration last week urged Canada's natural resources agency to increase oilsands production in the Alberta province five-fold to 5 million barrels per day, but a spokesman for Prime Minister Stephen Harper said "not at the expense of the environment." Meanwhile, while Harper turns his back on Alberta, oil companies are steaming ahead with plans of their own to develop the world's largest oil reserve and by the looks of things, one junior producer appears to be ahead of the pack.


West left in the cold in Arctic oil boom

Moscow has closed the door further to Western participation in Russia’s Arctic energy wealth with a proposal to grant Rosneft and Gazprom, the state oil and gas companies, exclusive rights to develop offshore oil and gas.


The Geopolitical Consequences of Peak Oil

"You'll forgive me if I sound a little shrill," began Professor Michael T. Klare, the author of "Resource Wars" and its sequel "Blood and Oil", who directed his presentation at the 2006 Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference at Boston University to the families and loved ones of young people under 25 "who may chose to or be coerced to put on the uniform of the United States military."


Vinod Khosla: President Bush, Please Declare a War on Oil!

To win the war on terror, we must first stop funding terrorists with our oil money. Let's instead use our money to fund a war on oil.


Raymond J. Learsy: Taking a Page From John D. Rockefeller - Foreclosing America's Energy Security (Agenda Part VIII)

Our energy neck is in a tightening noose. Between 75 percent and 90 percent of the world's oil and gas reserves are held by national oil companies that are partially or fully controlled by their governments. As such, the distribution and marketing of oil has become so highly politicized as to cripple the power of market forces to assure access and security of supply.


Report has 'smoking gun' on climate

Human-caused global warming is here, visible in the air, water and melting ice, and is destined to get much worse in the future, an authoritative global scientific report will warn next week.

"The smoking gun is definitely lying on the table as we speak," said top U.S. climate scientist Jerry Mahlman, who reviewed all 1,600 pages of the first segment of a giant four-part report. "The evidence ... is compelling."

Andrew Weaver, a Canadian climate scientist and study co-author, went even further: "This isn't a smoking gun; climate is a batallion of intergalactic smoking missiles."


Natural gas rises as temps plunge

Natural gas prices soared Monday to the highest in 5½ weeks as cold weather spread across much of the USA, leading investors to predict increased demand for the nation's most popular heating source.


U.S., British workers seized in Nigeria

Unidentified assailants seized two foreign oil workers Tuesday in the latest kidnapping to hit restive southern Nigeria, police said.


Saudi: U.S. will need Mideast oil for years to come

U.S. policymakers should be talking about interdependence with Middle East suppliers, not independence, said Prince Turki Al-Faisal, the kingdom's U.S. ambassador, speaking at George Washington University.


Nissan's car navigation to offer fuel-saving tip

Drivers of some Nissan cars in Japan from Monday will begin tracking the fuel efficiency of their vehicles on the Web thanks to a new system that ties in with the car's existing navigation system.


Ford unveils plug-in hybrid vehicle

Ford Motor Co. is joining the list of automakers working on a plug-in hybrid — with a twist. It combines the convenience of plugging in your car with a zero-emissions hydrogen fuel cell.


U.S. automakers push for battery, fuel tech help

U.S.-based automakers will this week underscore their push for government help on alternative fuels and advanced battery technology, riding what is anticipated to be an updated White House prescription for greater national energy independence.


Global warming bubbles to the surface in Davos

An exceptionally mild and barren first half of winter in the Swiss Alps is helping to fuel growing concern about climate change at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum beginning on Wednesday.


Berlin warned on phasing out nuclear energy

Germany will miss its CO2 emission targets, face rising electricity prices and become "dramatically" more reliant on Russian gas if it keeps to its policy of phasing out nuclear energy, a new study warns.


Nuclear firm targets clean power

French firm Areva - the largest maker of nuclear reactors - has tabled a $1bn (£506m; 772m euro) bid for leading clean energy firm Repower of Germany.

Areva said it would pay 105 euros a share for the wind turbine firm, a move that would allow it to tap into the growing wind energy sector.


Post Carbon Institute Energy Experts Available for Pre- and Post-State of the Union Address Comments on Energy

Post Carbon Institute Fellow Richard Heinberg warned that we should be skeptical about what the president proposes: "Just because the president says some energy source is good doesn't make it good," Heinberg said. "For example, a big push for coal-to-oil technologies might eventually reduce petroleum imports, but it would only worsen the problem of global warming. And the nuclear power industry claims there are no CO2 emissions connected with nuclear power, which just isn't true if you take account of the processes of plant construction and fuel production. We can't forget the more than 50-year failure to dispose of nuclear waste, and uranium is getting more scarce and expensive. Since all of the energy supply alternatives have problems, we need much more focus on conservation"

Sorry if this has been posted.

Sprott

Has the Matador Slain the Commodity Bull?

January 2007

Eric Sprott
Sasha Solunac

We believe there are . . . temporary factors suppressing the oil price. The financial world was quick to profit during the bull times, and now they are similarly quick to bail (and short) during periods of weakness.

There may also be geopolitical factors at play, such as the Saudis (doubtless with the backing of US) wanting to break the back of Iran by suppressing the oil price.

We don’t generally pay heed to such hearsay (unless we know it to be true), preferring to concentrate on the fundamentals. The fundamentals for oil continue to be highly favourable. In fact, the issues the oil markets face are staggering. As we’ve already mentioned, Chinese and Indian demand for oil threatens to grow exponentially as they continue to build the wealth to become consumerist societies like the West.

Furthermore, the supply side of the equation continues to face daunting issues.

North Sea production, at one time representing 8% of world oil supply, has peaked and is declining precipitously.

Norway recently dropped its forecast for 2007 oil production by 15%. Britain’s crude oil production, which peaked before Norway’s, fell 15% last year.

Mexico’s Cantarell oilfield, the second largest in the world, fell 10% or 200,000 barrels per day in a six month period.

British Petroleum, one of the largest oil companies in the world, recently reported the sixth straight quarterly decline in oil production, losing 400,000 barrels per day in the past year.

A mechanical problem on the Hibernian platform resulted in 80,000 barrels per day being temporarily taken out of production.

Venezuela is threatening to nationalize its oil industry and kick foreign companies out.

The Middle East (Iran, Iraq) remains a powder keg of instability and threatens to become only more so in 2007.

A dispute between Russia and Belarus almost took 1 million barrels per day of oil off the market.

These factors are rarely incorporated by analysts in supply models.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/01-2007.pdf

You need to add to that list the hype that Prof. Deffeyes and co have engaged in over the past couple of years.

I can hear the groans across TOD resounding through the Internet, but people need to be made aware just how 'benevolent' Prof Deffeyes truly is! This is a repost from a very late post yesterday, as I feel the implications are simply to big to ignore:

---------------------

Hello Aniya,

Thank you for at least having an open mind! His 'rant' can be found here:

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html

Some quotes of interest:

I enjoy talking with financial firms about the oil problem. It is gratifying that many in the financial community took an early interest in the consequences of a downturn in world oil production. One of the nicest compliments that I received was in Tokyo. A fellow told me that he read Hubbert's Peak five years ago, believed it, and told me that he "made a hell of a lot of money." I wasn't quick enough to ask how many zeros were in a "hell of a lot of money," but he heads the largest hedge fund in Asia.

Yes, I'm sure congratulations are in order to Prof. Deffeyes, as he has probably made a LOT of hedge funds in Asia AND the US make 'a hell of a lot of money." Not only that, he practically ADMITS that he makes the rounds to various financial firms 'informing' them of the peak oil problem! Yet people here at TOD seem to completely miss the implications of this!!!

I'm not in the business of recommending individual stocks. That requires far too much homework; I don't have the patience. Recognition is growing slowly that the world oil situation is approaching a crisis. But whenever the price of gasoline goes down, a lot of people think that the problem has disappeared.

Notice how we are all capable of 'grasping' the concept of peak oil and its ramifications, yet we can not possibly understand his recommendations for individual stock picks?

Over the last few months, oil prices have dropped from $70 per barrel to $50. Most people learned in Econ 101 that a low price is a symptom of an abundance of supply. About five years ago Wired magazine tried to arrange a $1000 public wager between S. Fred Singer and me about oil prices on two consecutive years. It looked to me like a sucker bet. When supply and demand are closely matched, tiny changes cause enormous swings in price. We could have as well flipped a coin for $1000. I could, and did, arrange my own non-sucker bet by investing in several oil and natural gas stocks on a scale larger than $1000. It worked out quite well, thank you, although I have to grit my teeth during the downswings in price: Grit, grind, crunch.

This dribble should speak for itself :laughs: Unfortunately, the admission that he was making a killing durring the oil bull run probably goes over the top of most peoples heads. Of special note is his worry about the recent downswings in prices. After, he would still be making a killing from his own private investments...hes just grinding and gritting and crunching his teeth as he realizes how he went out on a limb with his Hedge Fund advice and they are loosing billions! :laughs:

From April 2005 onward, crude oil prices have been above $50 per barrel. For several months during 2006, oil prices rose above $70. At those price levels, virtually all producers pumped every possible barrel. With that kind of cash flow, any well operator who suspected one morning that his Blakenship #7 well did not produce its usual share last night will have Halliburton out there in the afternoon trying to fix it.

Yeah, Halliburton did such an awesome job with the 200,000+ bpd that was shut down at Prudhoe bay for the better part of 3 months.

Yes, I'm sure congratulations are in order to Prof. Deffeyes, as he has probably made a LOT of hedge funds in Asia AND the US make 'a hell of a lot of money." Not only that, he practically ADMITS that he makes the rounds to various financial firms 'informing' them of the peak oil problem! Yet people here at TOD seem to completely miss the implications of this!!!

So you would trust him more if he said he was doing it 'for the good of mankind' and wasn't clear that he makes money off all the people, like yourself, who DON'T believe him? (i.e. that 'bet' against him in the market)

Notice how we are all capable of 'grasping' the concept of peak oil and its ramifications, yet we can not possibly understand his recommendations for individual stock picks?

That's not what he said at all. He said he doesn't even have the patience to pick them himself.

Have you ever been to Alaska? It ain't Texas.

It's called market manipulation. And if he made his rounds to say, Goldman Sachs, then invested in oil options shortly before they set their basket of options to include 10% in oil, its called insider trading. People go to jail for that.

And I just want to point this out: Its remarkable how the oil prices began collapsing in July of last year...everyone simply attributed it to republican manipulation, but its surely just a 'coincidence' that it occurred at the end of the same month that we had the worlds production rate exceed 85 mbpd, and in the same quarter that we set our high production average! :laughs:

One simply has to wonder what Prof. Deffeyes has to grind, grit and crunch his teeth on! :laughs:

If you have evidence - back it up with data. If you dont - shut up.

Here is what you said yesterday about WT:

And BTW, trying to evoke an emotional defense of a scientific subject only shows that you lack anything more then a conceptual grasp of the subject.

and here is what you said above about Deffeyes:

One simply has to wonder what Prof. Deffeyes has to grind, grit and crunch his teeth on! :laugh

It is called hypocrisy.

You seem like a nice kid, that has a lot to learn. Sit back, take your own advice, listen to the giants like Deffeyes and Simmons, and the crusty old posters like Alan, Airdale, and Don et al that actually know what they are talking about when it comes to life experiences. This site is not about who can shout the loudest and be the most demeaning to other posters. It is about taking in a lot of different perspectives about Peak Oil, and reflecting quietly on how you personally are going to deal with it. And if you have someting ORIGINAL to say - please say it - but dont just lurk looking for the next "victim" to attack with vicious inuendo and smears.

Francois.

First of all, that comment wasn't even directed at WT, so right off the bat your opinion can be considered completely out of whack! :laughs:

Second, I quoted Prof. Deffeyes. Those were his words, written on his blog, following his admissions at market manipulation. I'm laughing at the irony of it all. I'm sure you're probably attaching an emotional reaction because you feel bad at being so blind.

However, there IS a difference between both cases. On the one hand, I was referring to how someone tries to add an EMOTIONAL element to a scientific debate, on the other, I am laughing at someones OPINIONS whose hands have been found caught in the cookie jar.

Notice the disconnect you are obviously experiencing between SCIENTIFIC DEBATES and OPINIONS. If anyone is being hypocritical, its you!

And I don't need to 'prove' anything to anyone. Prof. Deffeyes, in his OWN WORDS described how he advised several hedge funds on peak oil, and about how one particular hedge fund in Japan 'made a hell of a lot of money' on his advice. Further more, he explicitly states that his own investments 'a la 'non-sucker bets'' made him a very wealthy man 'on paper', and that he was grinding, gritting and crunching his teeth at the recent spot oil decline.

How on gods green earth could you possibly try to defend this man? No human being is above reproach. It's truly sad that his acknowledgment of the sucker-punch he made on the rest of the world is ignored by this community. Someone should hold him accountable.

It's going to only get worse over the next few years after we reach a new production maximum every few months :laughs:

Dear Hothgor,
Allthough you get a lot of nasty remarks here on TOD, you must understand that you are of great value to the Peak Oil comunity. I'll explain why:

You represent how the most people on the planet are. People that live in an isolated cognitive environment that have the following live credo:
"I don't care about facts and science, I mainly form my opinion on feeling and popular bits of info that the mainstream media feed me".

So your reasoning about and your reactions to the peak-oil phenomana represent the reactions most people will have. And it is important to know how those people react.

So thank you for posting! Keep it up please!!
We need to know....

Roger from the Netherlands

You seem to have selected particular labels to fit me that do not necessarily reflect my opinions as a whole. And while I appreciate your obvious humor and sarcasm, I have to point out that I have stated on numerous occasions that I believe in Peak Oil, that I believe that at some point oil production must peak and then decline forever, and that our present way of life is unsustainable.

My main objective however is to point out to people that a world without FFs doesn't require us to revert back to a pre-industrial agrarian aristocracy. I've tried my best to emphasize electrification of our transportation, though unlike Alan I think our needs can best be served by electrifying cars in the medium term. In addition to that, one of my majors in College was a study on improving efficiencies in a work environment and various systems.

With that said, our use of energy world wise is grossly wasteful. The idea of building our modern economy on the ICE which utilizes less then 15% of the energy content of oil is, to put it mildly, idiotic. The uses of various hydrocarbons are far to numerous to waste burning in a machine that has over 600 moving parts built by the lowest bidder in some third world country.

To that end, however, I can not stand people who proudly proclaim that the end is near and that we must experience some form of grand hardship. Our lifestyle does not warrant some kind of divine punishment. The old adage that no good deed goes unpunished should have no sway in our future.

Unfortunately, people do not like to be criticized on their misguided beliefs. And they certainly don't appreciate anyone attacking their self serving 'prophet'.

Dear Hothgor,

That is interesting. When do you think peak oil will happen?
And what do you think decline rates in production and export will be?

I think you are right about the potentials of conserving and wiser energy usage.
My own experience is that it is quite easy to cut ones energy expendure by 20% without any real sacrifices at all. Quite a nice experiment to do I can tell you.
Ofcourse the Jeverson paradox is messing things up here ;-)

Roger from the Netherlands

Around 2015

Around 2-3%

I look at total liquids, individual declines will be greater obviously.

Decline rates in conventional oil are in modernized oil fields between 8 and 15 %.
Where will all the compensating extra oil comming from? Oilsands? Bio?

How about new fields? Do you think the oil companies of the world are going to stop developing new fields when we peak? New fields are continually coming online to offset the decline of existing fields. One day they won't be quite enough to offset the decline and we'll start to see a slow decline in production.

New fields are continually coming online to offset the decline of existing fields.

News flash.
Discovery of your so-called "new fields" peaked 40 years ago, in the 1960's. (Welcome to TOD --trust, but villify)

Ener Ji's point was that to maintain the 40-yr R/P ratio, the field decline rate matters not if discoveries and reserve growth keep pace. Your graph is disingenuous i.e. it fails to reflect that the magnitude of Reserve Growth has allowed new discoveries to slide.

Based on 18 recognized estimates, URR (including Discoveries & Reserve Growth) has grown 140-Gb/yr since Y2k as compared to the 48-Gb/yr fifty year average. This is despite the fact that we consume 31-Gb/yr. To what end would an R/P ratio of 50 yrs or 60 yrs serve? The marketplace says "none".

The last year that the URR AVG actually decreased was 5-GB in 1994. The last year that Remaining Reserves AVG declined was 9-Gb in 1998.

There is no doubt that URR is increasing due to economic factors. The rate of growth in the next two decades may be correlated to Pricing.


please click link to see whole graph: http://trendlines.ca/TrendlinesPeakOilURREstimatesGraph70106.gif

"Reserves"?

That's the best that you can pull out of your bag of shill's tricks, Freddy?

Come on, we already know about that tired old numbers game.

Yes, I'll grant you that we grow the "Reserves" number to any large value we want simply by counting up the hydrocarbons on Jupiter, Neptune and the moons of Endore.

As a matter of fact we can arbitrarily double the "Reserves" count for East Texas.

This scary, but I'm going to do it.

Watch this:

I hereby declare that the "Reserves" numbers for East Texas are now double of what they were yesterday.

Wow.
Even I'm surprised. Jeffrey of Westexas just called me. Seems production in Texas went up 100% just seconds after I proclaimed that its Reserve numbers are hereby doubled. They can't believe it but it's true. Oil production doubled overnight in Texas. It was that simple. All I had to do was utter magic words.

"Reserves".

Them are powerful words.

It is unfortunate that the concept of Reserve Growth as explained by many at TOD has escaped u thus far. Perhaps a basic tutorial at Wikipedia would assist u in that regards. It continues to amaze us how folks like yourself presume that we use the same oil three times and don't have to replenish. Stick in there, eh...

New field discovery may have peaked but they are still being discovered, and old fields that were not put into production because there was lower hanging fruit will continue to be put into production especially as the price of oil rises. Therefore yes, new field production will continue to partially offset the decline of production post peak and diminish the rate of decline.

The only recognized modeler to incorporate aggressive decline rates was Chris Skrebowski's Megaprojects with its 3% to 7% progressive rate. But upon review and the realities of exhausting 1.2-Tb of Reserves over the next hundred years, he prudently revised his Decline Rate to 2.5% in December. To seek the average Post Peak Net Decline Rate, one must average the declining fields with the hundreds of undeveloped fields.

Like Colin Campbell, Chris has decided to put integrity of data and good science ahead being "ambassadors" of the Peak Oil message of immenency. They understand that being forthright and credible is the foundation for being heard.

Hothgor-
If he didn't make them money, they probably wouldn't invite him back...

The problem is that he is using his influence and political clout to adversely affect the market in ways that they were trending against. He and disguise his motives by saying hes doing it for the benefit of mankind, but he most likely had access to information that the rest of us did not and profited from that knowledge by investing in oil options before the same hedge funds he advised did so.

The sad thing is you guys keep throwing money at the 'prophet'. What has he done for you in return??

I think I've clicked on 2 ads on TOD. Does that count as giving money to the prophet?

Re: It's going to only get worse over the next few years after we reach a new production maximum every few months :laughs:

Normally, I wouldn't bother with you, Hothgar. But I am in the mood to settle your hash here and now.

Since you bring little of substance to our discussion here on The Oil Drum, and insofar as you are a constant disruptive presence here, there has been some speculation as to whether you are a paid troll. I myself have hoped this was true sometimes, for if you are doing this because you enjoy it, only psychiatric intervention would have any hope at all of making a difference in your life. Should you go that route on your own, follow the meds instructions of the doctor faithfully. Don't get discouraged if the first ones you try don't work. Perhaps the magic bullet will come your way. On the other hand, if you are paid to do this work, your moral situation is hopeless and, as a human being, you have failed to comprehend the first thing about life that really matters — the idea that we are all in this together. Still, at least your behaviour would be understandable in some rudimentary way.

Now, the people who run this website are good people, fair people, the kind of people who will bend over backwards not to stifle debate. If it were up to me, your sorry ass would have been tossed a long time ago. I am not of the same good quality of the powers that be around here. Thank God for their restraint.

My advice to you — in the context I have stated here — is to take a good look at yourself, at who you are, and then think about the better person you might become. I look forward to the day when you are able to do that.

adieu,

Dave

Believe me, I will keep your comments in mind.

Now, what will you do if what I said is true and we do start setting new production heights?

I am perfectly willing to be wrong but, alas, can find no convincing arguments that I am. But, I have not specified a timeframe, have I?

What would I do if were wrong about peak oil? Happening in 2005? 2007? 2010? 2015? 2020? The last date is a scant 13 years from now. That's not a long time away. Any of those dates signal a significant problem for mankind. You see the meaninglessness of your question, I presume. It's coming, though I tend to think sooner rather than later.

Yes, please bear in mind what I said.

Now, what will you do if what I said is true and we do start setting new production heights?

Rejoice and cry --both at the same time.
Rejoice because Peak is not yet.
Cry because we continue to pump toxic pollutants into the air with no end in sight.

Hothgor.

I dont agree with you, but you are putting up one hell of a spirited defence of your initial attacking position :-)

due you have any ancestors located at any of the following?

The 44th Foot on the retreat from Kabul.
Greasy Grass
Rorkes Drift
Spion Kop

Keep it up Hothgor! Roger is right, you are a pretty good benchmark example of the Man on the Clapham Omnibus.

Sorry, should read do you, not due you.

Was on the phone about a nixed crew change.

I don't think Hothgor is a twentysomething from small town Texas as some have portrayed him. I'm around young twentysomethings all the time as a college teacher, and this is not how they write (speak).

Thats because most twentysomthings are obsessed with 24, iPods, and a fixation on 'conquests' instead of worrying about the future that they will inherit.

i think hotgor is a dual cyberperson, the alternate user name of someone rather familiar at tod. isnt there a good linguist in the house that can bust the sucker ?

I'm no linguist but it seems to me that Hothgor frequently writes "then" instead of "than", like in

...it was certainly possible that their HL show their Qt to be more then 50%...

See second Hothgor's post in http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/19/8553/6333#44
I did not see the same common mistake in other user's comments.

No, he thinks I am Hothgar. He actually suggested this in Sunday's Drumbeat:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2201#comment-150748

The fact that nobody responded to such a wild suggestion should have clued him in that he was barking up the wrong tree. I started to respond, but defending myself all the time gets tiresome. So, I let it slide. But elwood, who I actually think is OilCEO :-), is quite out in left field on that one. After all, does it make sense that I would go to so much trouble to disclose who I am and what I do, and then risk everything by using a sock puppet? Do you think the site owners can't track IP addresses? Look back when Hothgar first started posting and you will see that we butted heads more than a few times. I know, I know. Probably just to cover myself. I will never understand what get's into some people's heads.

Elwood, don't ever try to convince anyone you would make any kind of detective. Your sleuthing skills stink.

and cant the site owners track the ip address of oilceo ? and furthermore, cant one dualcyberperson have more than 1 IP address ?and dont ever convince anyone you are a logical thinker because your logic: highly stinko