DrumBeat: February 9, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 9, 2007 - 10:38am
Topic: Alternative energy
The Desperation of George W. Bush
Passing the PeakThe first reason is simply that the world's number-one oil field, Saudi Arabia's Ghawar, is in decline.
According to Jeffrey J. Brown, an independent petroleum geologist, the well-respected Hubbert Linearization Method of oil field production analysis shows that Saudi Arabia is 58% depleted and the world is 48% depleted . . . about where Texas and the lower 48 states peaked and started irreversible declines in production. "Based on the HL method and historical models," he says, "I believe Saudi Arabia and the world are now on the verge of irreversible declines in conventional oil production."
This is something that Matthew Simmons, founder and chairman of the world's largest energy investment banking company and author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, has been saying for several years now. He has been running himself ragged traveling the globe and warning about a Saudi production collapse.
Well, in a January 31 interview on Bloomberg television, he dropped the bomb: "We have hit peak oil."
That's it. The party is officially over.
The issue here isn't that Cantarell is declining. That began a couple of years ago and had been widely anticipated. What's news is that, just as many peak oil theorists have been warning, when big fields start to decline they decline faster than anyone expects. So far, Cantarell appears to be evidence that they're right.
Oil May Rise to $71.50 as Output Trails Demand, Goldman Says
Crude-oil prices may rise as high as $71.50 a barrel this year because investment by oil companies to boost output is lagging behind demand, said James Gutman, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
CIBC no longer predicting $100-a-barrel oil any time soon
A "war on carbon" by governments has prompted a strategic retreat by CIBC World Markets chief economist Jeff Rubin, who less than a year and a half ago was predicting oil would be near US$100 per barrel by now...."We’re still going to get $100-a-barrel oil but I think it’s going to take longer, given what’s happened to demand," Rubin said in an interview.
Venezuela oil firm overburdened with Chavez largess
Venezuela's national oil company is buckling under the burden of financing President Hugo Chavez's more than $9 billion a year in social and political ventures.Production at Petroleos de Venezuela is declining, and any major drop in oil prices or failure to reverse declining investment and production could lead to bankruptcy of the goose that lays the golden egg for Venezuela, Moody's Investors Service warned yesterday.
White House Budget to Cut Energy Research
In President Bush's proposed 2008 budget, weapons development wins big while overall funding for research suffers.
A rush-hour tax on urban drivers
President Bush wants to give $305 million to cities and states to come up with ways to charge drivers for traveling at peak traffic. Such "congestion pricing" has worked in a few cities such as London and Singapore. But can it succeed with toll-averse Americans?
This week's US decision to create a new Pentagon command covering Africa, known as Africom, has a certain unlovely military logic. Like Roman emperors of old, Washington's Caesars arbitrarily divide much of the world into Middle Eastern, European and Pacific domains. Now it is Africa's turn.
High oil prices ensure strong economies across MENA
Economic growth across the MENA region is set to continue at high levels in 2007 and high oil prices will result in healthy fiscal and external surpluses for the oil-producing countries, concludes a recent report by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services — "Data Watch: Middle East and African Sovereigns In 2007." Public finances and external accounts in non-oil producers will remain relatively weak, however.
Lukoil likes Colombian oilfield
Russia's Lukoil said Thursday that it has found an oilfield in Colombia that could contain as much as 100 million barrels of oil.
Billions lost in Kyoto carbon trade loophole
Billions of dollars are being wasted in the international carbon trading system owing to a loophole in the Kyoto protocol, according to a study to be published on Thursday in the journal Nature.
Experts foresee efficient ethanol production
"The technology to produce cellulosic ethanol is not there yet," he said. However, he estimates that large-scale, economically feasible production of ethanol from cellulose could happen within 10 to 15 years.
Amid this water scarcity, China has gone on to become the world's third-largest bio-ethanol producer after Brazil and the United States, pouring thousands of gallons of water to grow a ton of corn, and then using more water to turn the corn into ethanol.
Study: Saline Aquifers Can Provide Safe Storage for CO2
A new analysis by a team led by MIT has concluded that carbon dioxide injected into deep saline aquifers can be trapped as tiny bubbles and safely stored in the briny porous rock for centuries.
Report shows Scotland can build on its lead in subsea oil and gas
The UK industry has a 50% share of the worldwide market and a major period of growth lies ahead, with worldwide revenue estimated to rise from $29bn to $41bn (£15bn-£21bn) by 2011.
The State of Energy in SA Cities report by Sustainable Energy Africa warns that South Africa’s disproportionately large contribution to global warming is likely to come under international scrutiny and pressure.
UAE 'is an ideal place to tap solar energy'
European countries are mulling over plans to extract solar power from the Sahara desert as a source of renewable energy, leaving experts to ask why solar energy is not exploited in the Gulf, especially in power desalination plants.
EU Bank: Quarrels Hindering Baltic Gas Pipeline
The European Investment Bank on Thursday said that quarrels between European Union member states were blocking a funding of a disputed Russian-German natural gas pipeline.
Advantech wins Aramco satellite oil exploration contract
Current U.S. renewable energy goal too low
The head of the U.S. government's renewable energy lab said Monday (Feb. 5) that the federal government is doing "embarrassingly few things" to foster renewable energy, leaving leadership to the states at a time of opportunity to change the nation's energy future.
Statoil, Partners Reconsider Oil Output at Snohvit
Statoil ASA (STO) and its project partners are reconsidering producing associated oil at the giant Snohvit gas field in the Barents Sea, just weeks after announcing oil production had been rejected as uneconomic and wouldn't be pursued.
Canada oil output to rise 9% in 2007
Canadian oil production will grow 9 percent this year, the country's national energy regulator said on Thursday, due to growing output from the Alberta oil sands and offshore oil projects.In its 2007 production estimate, posted on its Web site, the National Energy Board said Canadian oil output should climb to about 2.89 million barrels a day, 9.1 percent more than the 2.61 million barrel a day average in 2006.
Ghana to double its energy generation capacity to 4000 megawatts-Kufuor
President Kufuor, who dropped the hint during a courtesy call on him at the Castle, Osu, by the National Executive Council of the Association of Ghana Industries (AGI) on Wednesday said the new generation system would not be dependent on the weather....He said realizing that without affordable, reliable and efficient energy supply system, there could not be effective industrialization, the Government, since its inception in 2001 made energy a priority agenda.
He said, it was for this reason that it raised 40 million dollars as Ghana's equity in the West African Gas Pipeline Project, which should have come on stream last December but for the problems in the Niger Delta region.
Ted Turner and Timothy Wirth Challenge Energy Industry on Alternatives
The pair, and the event's moderator, Matt Simmons of Simmons and Co., also discussed the future of energy policy in Washington given the new makeup of Congress and the efforts by the United Nations to build consensus for new, international policies related to energy and climate change.
Weekly Offshore Rig Review - License to Drill
With today's high oil prices and the new licensing options available in the UK and Norway, the mature fields in the North Sea are garnering a level of attention that has not been seen in years.
Activist embraces an end to suburbia
Like the recently deceased Molly Ivins (who will be sorely missed), Kunstler delivers the raw, ugly truth in a series of straight shots -- but he always chases it down with a dose of wicked humor and a glimmer of real hope. It also doesn't hurt that Kunstler gives great Power Point.
Fortunately, Vermont is in a better position to survive what author James Howard Kunstler has called "the long emergency" better than most places. There still is an agricultural economy in place. Suburban sprawl is at a minimum and life is already conducted at the human scale that most of America has abandoned.So, we suggest an initiative that could keep young Vermonters here, attract young people from other states to move to Vermont and create a new economic model that can stand up to a radically changed world.
DOT: “Our Job is to Keep Traffic Moving, Not Pedestrian Safety”
Gazprom: US Companies Want to Buy Yukos Assets
Large U.S. energy companies have expressed "concrete interest" in buying the assets of bankrupt Russian oil producer OAO Yukos, Russian gas monopoly OAO Gazprom said Thursday after its chief executive met with the U.S. ambassador to Moscow.
World's largest oil firm chief touts research to make fossil fuels 'cleaner'
The head of the world's largest oil company said that renewable sources can't meet the world's growing energy needs so research dollars should be aimed at both developing renewable sources and at making fossil fuels cleaner.
Virgin's Branson offers $25 million global warming prize
Airline tycoon Richard Branson announced on Friday a $25 million prize for the first person to come up with a way of scrubbing greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere in the battle to beat global warming.
Natural gas up after inventories
Natural gas prices rallied on Thursday after the latest US inventories data which showed a larger-than-expected fall in stocks last week due to recent cold weather.
UK approves world first offshore wind hybrid plan
The UK government has given the go-ahead to a unique hybrid project in the Irish Sea which will generate electricity from wind and then gas when wind dies down.
Western Australia to trial low emission vehicles
January world's hottest on record
Last month was the world's hottest January on record, in further evidence that greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming, Japanese scientists said.
'Doomsday vault' to resist global warming effects
An Arctic "doomsday vault" aimed at providing mankind with food in case of a global catastrophe will be designed to sustain the effects of climate change, the project's builders said as they unveiled the architectural plans. |
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As indicated in my 2007 resolutions, I am making a serious effort to reduce my fossil fuel usage this year. I have relocated to Aberdeen, Scotland, and this is giving me a chance to implement some changes I have had in mind for quite a while. It's not like my energy usage was excessive before, but I saw some places that I could reduce. What I am really trying to do is to see how low I can go without making drastic changes (like moving into a cave).
Let me first say, “It ain’t easy being green.” Well, some things are and some aren’t. For instance, take walking instead of driving. I have been doing that for almost all of my trips since arriving here. I did without a car for the first 8 days I was here, and I walked everywhere. One day I walked about 10 miles. When I run out of groceries, I walk half a mile to get some more. Obviously, this limits the amount of groceries I can purchase at one time. So, while I have lowered my fossil fuel usage, it is not nearly as convenient (especially in this weather). Which is of course why we are so dependent on fossil fuels: We love the convenience. We like to drive anywhere, any time we want.
After being here for 8 days, I did rent a car until I can arrange to buy one. I rented a Peugeot 207, which was classified as a mini, the smallest car you could rent. I haven’t had to put gas in it yet, but my guess is that it gets around 50 miles a gallon. It took me only a day or so to get accustomed to the left hand shift and right side steering wheel. Those have also helped me to remember to drive on the left. I have only turned into the right lane once (and drove the wrong way down a one-way street another time). All things considered, I think that’s pretty good.
I wasn’t able to get a house that had public transportation both to my job and to the kids’ new school. So, we compromised on location. I am only about 4 miles from work, and if I leave very early (6:30) I have no traffic coming in to work. The worst thing is that the road is incredibly narrow and winding. There are portions that are so narrow that I cringe when someone passes me. I have asked a couple of people about riding my bike in on that road, and they just laugh and ask if I have a death wish. I do not, so biking is probably out. In fact, I don’t feel particularly safe in my small car on this road (especially when it is dark and snowing), so I drive very slowly. We are on the bus route for the kids’ school, though, so we will be able to keep our trips to a minimum.
Regarding the house, I was looking for energy efficiency. The house we got into has a lot of southern exposure, and it is very well lit. There is a very large skylight upstairs, which really minimizes the need for lighting. There is a programmable thermostat that controls both the hot water and the heating for the house. Right now, since I am alone in the house, I have the hot water coming on just before I get up in the morning, and then back off just as I leave. Ditto the heating for the house, except I also program it to come back on just before I come back home. I should have known that this was the house for me when I walked in and there was a copy of Twilight in the Desert on the coffee table.
We have curb-side recycling for paper, plastics, bottles, and cans, and there is also a recycling center near by. This is much easier than many places in the states, where you often have to go well out of your way to recycle.
Overall, I am pleased at the progress I have made in reducing my fossil fuel input. (Most of the electricity here, by the way, is hydropower). Due to the high gasoline prices here, there is also a significant cost savings from minimizing fossil fuel usage. I just have to keep the momentum going when the rest of the family arrives. We are going to have to break the habit of leaving lights, PlayStations, and computers on when not in use. But other than some inconvenience, I have managed to greatly lower my fossil fuel consumption without too much trouble.
Incidentally, I do not have Internet access at home yet. That is going to be at least another week, so I will be slow to answer responses or e-mails. The only access I have is from work, and I want to limit that to my lunch period.
I'm impressed with all the things you have done. Anything I've done it is usually because it is convienent - like I walk to work and groceries on the way home because it is more convienent for me to do that.
Is the grocery store you are 1/2 mile from a big supermarket type? Other than work commute, groceries are the leading trip generators so we try to incentivize grocery that cover 1/4 to 1/2 mile radius'. One problem is that the grocery stores like to be big these days 70K sq ft + for their own "efficiency" but then they tend to not be close enough together to make walking a viable option for many people because they would cannibalize each other's sales but then this makes the overall community less efficient. How you measure efficiency and local vs global efficiency policy goals is one thing that people need to talk about IMO.
Robert,
The key to driving in the UK is to line the right hand side of the car with the middle of the road. I learned this from a helpful British chap who was helping me change a flat tire (resulting from driving too close to the left hand side of the road).
When I first rented a car in York, it took me some time to get out of the parking lot--it took me a while to get used to shifting with my left hand and driving on the right hand side of the car. What really fried my brain was turning left into the left lane.
I personally think that cars rented by Yanks in the UK should come with rotating warning beacons.
It is amazing how easy they let you rent a car when the rules are different in other countries. I honeymooned in Scotland for 3 weeks and had a car. The first place I drove was downtown Glasgow. I did suprisingly well. The key is to remain calm and don't rush decisions. For our time in Glasgow and Ediburgh we parked that sucker and never thought about using it.
Come on, guys you are making a mountain out of a molehill... with global tourism we are all used to driving RHD cars (UK, Aus, NZ, India, Asia) or LHD cars (Europe, N America etc).
No... the REAL fun doesn't start until until you take your drive-on-the left British car across the Channel to drive-on-the-right France...
Especially if you are driving solo... overtaking, in particular, becomes a most interesting exercise... and then there are the toll booths!!!
(-:
Driving on roads like that in Cornwall I discovered why British cars can come with a feature that allows you to draw in the wing mirrors at the touch of a button. There were several times when doing so was the only way to get past an on-coming car. Instead of a hard shoulder, the Cornish roads often have stone walls or hedges right up against the edge of the road. I had to honk my horn before rounding blind corners. Irish roads were even worse as everyone traveled along them at almost motorway speed (or so it seemed).
RR,
You should be complimented on dealing with the issue at hand by changing your lifestyle. This is in marked contrast to today's SCIENCE, "Sustainability and Energy," devoted to techno-geek/cornucopian means to sustain our perilous current consumptive standard of living. Unfortunately, the MSM, politicians, the vast majority of the educated will refer to SCIENCE rather than TOD as they plot our future.
Great example! Thank you...
The one sad thing that occured to me about your house is that the well built ones (architecturally as well as ecologically) are kind or hard to find, aren't they? Do you feel particularly lucky to have found this one or is my experience in house hunting (I am in CA...) not transferable?
Robert, I've always found your posts to be excellent and I applaud your efforts to "walk the talk!" I now find myself getting excited about the monthly utility bills. It is upsetting when I don't live up to my own expectations some months. But other months are a big surprise, like the sub-300 KWH used in each October and November...weather's been even milder than usual here in Florida.
I recently bought a 1,400 SF house built in the 1950s. Simply switching out the incandescent bulbs with CFLs, adding a programable thermostat, replacing the original oven/cooktop, replacing a 15+ year old refrigerator with an Energy Star model, and slowly but surely improving the weatherstripping in the house has made a nice difference in our energy use. Also, replacing one of the original toilets with a new dual-flush model has dropped our family of two down to between 1,000 - 3,000 gallons of water used per month (of course we don't have an irrigated landscape like every other house in Florida). But like you stated, getting control of the ghost plug loads from electronics helps as well.
We eventually plan on improving our attic insulation to R-38 (or higher) and replacing our 18 year old water heater with a passive solar water heater. What so many people fail to realize is the biggest wedge for the foreseeable future is by far the efficiency wedge. The US DoE's Building America Program aims to make "zero-energy" homes an industry standard by 2020. How do they hope to get there?...by reducing the energy demands of a typical home by 70% and making up the other 30% with renewables as they come online. TOD readers, check out their free publications based on your climate for ideas on how to improve your home.
One thing TOD should consider is adding a new section to the archives that "pre-sorts" posts according to certain topics. TOD has always been a global leader on reporting "the situation," but it would be great to have a section on "solutions for the individual consumer," or something like that.
Keep up the great work!...and GOOD LUCK!
If the Energy Star appliance needs to be replaced frequently it may not be worth the investment, energetically. We need a durability label.
"We need a durability label."
We have one. It's called "guarantee period". After a year, or five, if the manufacturer feels good about their product, all bets are off. Yet, my parent's had their fridge for over twenty years and it was a good thing that it died! The new one uses half the electricity.
Be careful what you are asking for. Products that are too durable have their own set of problems. A couple years from now we will wish we could replace the vehicle pool faster than every dozen years.
I read somewhere recently that the manufacture of an automobile accounts for 40% of the total CO2 emission of the thing over its lifetime. So durability would seem to be a good thing in many cases. It would seem to make sense to get maximum life out of our stuff. We sometimes seem to draw a line between stuff and the energy use of that stuff, but making stuff takes lots of energy...
"I read somewhere recently that the manufacture of an automobile accounts for 40% of the total CO2 emission of the thing over its lifetime. It would seem to make sense to get maximum life out of our stuff."
That, unfortunately, is not generally correct. Compare early vs. late replacement. In both cases you have to invest the energy/CO2 to make the replacement car. But since the CO2 emissions for making the next generation cars will continue to fall because of better manufacturing practices and because more and more renewables are going to be used in the energy mix, the total CO2 emissions for it come down in time. In contrast, the CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the SUV stay the same. The longer you wait, the more you waste.
Also keep in mind that when you scrap an SUV, almost two small cars can be made from the recycled materials. In other words: you save enormous amounts of resources.
Actually, the warentee is often doubled depending upon your charge card. Does that mean the manufacturer has somehow singled you out for that one in a hundred that runs twice as long as the one other that non-card users buy?
From an energy point of view, about half of the lifetime energy, IIRC, is involved with the manufacture of the vehicle. Cuba may know something we haven't adopted yet.
Regarding the house, I was looking for energy efficiency. The house we got into has a lot of southern exposure, and it is very well lit. There is a very large skylight upstairs, which really minimizes the need for lighting.
Dear RR... I sincerely hope you found something reasonably NEW. Whilst you say you were looking for energy efficiency, I note you make no mention of insulation or glazing standards!!!
If it is like most British houses.. though it will have an insulated attic... it will have single skin brick walls and draughty windows with single pane glazing...
I long ago despaired of British building standards... where since WW2... "build 'em cheap" has been valued more than "build for quality"...
It would be my guess that some 90% of the UK housing stock needs bringing up to C21st European/N. American standards... and by that I mean demolishing, not retrofitting... (installed energy investment notwithstanding...)
Although the fact that Hunterston B is down for repairs at the moment means that a bit less of your electricity comes from lovely nuclear power.
Hope you're adapting well to life on our cold and grey island. You did pick the most miserable time of year to come. It does get better in spring and summer, honestly (well, most years ;-) ).
Wow. I'd call that "hardly any hydropower at all."
How's it going with Longannet, BTW?
Generating at reduced power using gas, last I heard
Robert ,
are you sure your electricity is from hydro power?
You may find you get your bill from ''Scottish Hydro''. The name of the company has its roots in this source, but not so much now.
Still, apparently there is enough wind plant installed to power a million homes, according to BBC Scotland tonight.
Anyway, enjoy your stay. Sorry about the snow... I have been cursing its lack all winter and then here it comes...
Today's big news:
Now what will the oil corporations do to clean up this global-scale mess that they have created?
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
Maybe GW will be thier PR ticket to get "big auto" into increasing gas milage as a first step. Future declines in oil production could be masked with in the context of "increasing auto effciency as a means to reduce greenhouse gases" PR campaign. Raising auto efficiency standards would reduce carbon emisions, semi-maintain the status quo, and make big oil look good(better?). Pointing the finger at "big auto" would be an easy mark, and it makes alot of sense imho.
Lets watch "big oil" and "big auto" race to save the world from global warming.
In a mainstream newspaper yesterday:
- Water becoming scarce in Belgium (10000$ for scientist who denies global warming): about the consequences of climate change
- Waiting for hydrogen (still no valable alternative for fossil fuels): On one hand, hydrogen is mentioned both as energy source and energy carrier, but also that it is not automatically sustainable, unless produced by windmills or such.
- More severe CO2-limit makes car more expensive (a regional government will tax clean car less): A European limit of 130 g/km
I've decided to put several ideas together and let the Peak Oil community decide if the idea I have is appropriate, so here it is:
Have a day set in August, not sure which day, but I'm thinking the day the EIA annouces C+C oil production for May 2007. Why? On that particular day, we'll know if the record for C+C production (currently May 2005) will be beaten. If not, then May 2007 will be the 2 year anniversary of Peak C+C. I believe it was either Colin Campbell or Matt Simmons who said it will take at least two years to know in the rear view mirror if we've peaked in C+C for the world.
I'm not saying this is equivalent to total liquids peak, its not. Its day will come in 2010 (+-2 years). But its still an important mile stone. I'm almost certain we've peaked in light sweet crude. Now its conventional oils turn. Each step proves the peak oil meme has legs. Hell, even Jubak on MSN was saying the Peak Oil crowd maybe on to somthing with the announcement of Mexico-Canterwell depletion recently.
David Smart
I think that the best description for the oil markets is "metastable."
It's interesting that the news of a 0.16% disruption in world C+C production (the Elk Hills Field) resulted in about a 3.5% increase in spot oil prices.
The forecast increase in Canadian oil production is 9.1% , which amounts to only 280,000 BPD. How likely is Canada to make this goal? According to EIA data, average daily production through November is 2,512,000 BPD, an increase of 143,000 BPD over 2005 average production. Production actually dropped in 2004.
Does the forecast adequately consider the decline in non oil sands production?
Well, Leanan, clearly you are scraping the bottom of the barrel for news reports.
Every dog has his day.. well done, WT!
You're right, with only 826 links it's obviously a slow news day.
But she works it anyway.
"Let's see, do I put Jeffrey at the top or somewhere hidden in the middle? Hmmm, what's he done for me lately?"
The power she has, the power....
I try to feature the denizens of TOD when they make the news. :-)
Tell us the truth... you were baiting Hothie
Does anyone have a subscription here?
Saudis Pump Billions More Into Refining
Article is behind a paywall. If anyone has read it or knows the answers to the following:
Are they increasing capacity for higher sulfur crudes or for all crude grades?
Is the increase a tacit recognition the rest of the world won't make the investment in refining?
Is it because they want to capture increased revenues by exporting refined products (a sound strategy if, for instance, the underlying commodity were declining)?
Thanks.
I don't have a subscription, but they recently stated they would be spending $80 billion in just the next few years:
Fortunately, Vermont is in a better position to survive what author James Howard Kunstler has called "the long emergency" better than most places. There still is an agricultural economy in place. Suburban sprawl is at a minimum and life is already conducted at the human scale that most of America has abandoned.
I came to the same conclusion a while back. Vermont is on the very short list for me of places to retire to. Hopefully the rest of the world doesn't get the same idea. :)