DrumBeat: February 14, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 14, 2007 - 9:16am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Cheap Oil to Last, "Doomsday" Fears Overblown, Author Says
People usually assume that the planet is thoroughly explored [for oil], but this is not true. The United States and Canada are the most thoroughly explored, and the latest discovery by Chevron in the Gulf of Mexico demonstrates that they are not really so [thoroughly] explored.Other parts of the world are really not explored at all. Even today more than 70 percent of the world's oil exploration wells are concentrated in the U.S. and Canada—countries that hold only 3 percent of the world's oil reserves. Conversely, only 3 percent of the world's exploration wells are drilled in the Middle East.
Many countries, Saudi Arabia in particular, have discovered oil fields in the past but have never developed them because of their fear of creating excess capacity.
No one knows how much oil there is. But all the hints we have—for example surveys made the U.S. Geological Survey—indicate that the world still has really huge oil resources in its soil.
Hybrids, Biofuels and Other False Idols
The planned obsolescence and massive production of consumer objects in the overdeveloped countries is responsible for catastrophic climate change and species extinction. The question which we obviously need to address is how to improve the quality of life while decreasing the quantity of useless junk and not throwing anyone out of work. But unflinching loyalty to a growth economy prevents corporate environmentalists from searching for serious transportation options.
Hofmeister and his executives toured 25 U.S. cities last year conducting meetings with local residents and public officials. The results were sobering, he said."I was shocked at how many people actually believe in the peak oil theory," said Hofmeister, of a point of view held by some that the world is at the tipping point of supply and that extreme worldwide crude oil shortages are looming.
Spinning Straw into Black Gold
We may be out of oil, says Chevron CTO Don Paul. But thanks to new technology, we'll never run out of fuel.
Exxon Mobil's Tillerson says focus is on meeting global demand for oil and gas
Exxon Mobil Corp.'s CEO says the world's largest publicly traded petroleum company is not in any hurry to find alternatives to oil and gas. If anything, the company must scramble to keep up with rising global demand for fossil fuels.
Oil E&P Confront 53% Increase Over Past Two Years
Oil exploration and production costs have climbed 53 percent in the past two years as prices for everything from drilling rigs to labor continue to surge, according to a new price index released Monday.
UK O&G Activity Report Prompts Questions about North Sea Competitiveness
The UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA), the representative organization for UK oil and gas producers, has called for Government and Industry action to address signs suggesting that the UK offshore oil and gas province is becoming less competitive and less able to attract the investment needed to sustain future production levels.
Fossil Fuel Watch: The Giant Sucking Sound, Revisited
Remember the metaphorical “giant sucking sound” that Ross Perot invoked in the 1992 presidential debates? Perot employed that image to characterize the rapid exodus of jobs to Mexico that would surely result from ratifying the North American Free Trade Agreement. Fifteen years later, that vivid phrase could appropriately describe the increasingly desperate circumstances befalling Cantarell, Mexico’s largest oilfield, situated about 50 miles off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The giant sucking sound you might hear at Cantarell is what happens when hundreds of oil wells begin drawing gas and water from the very reservoirs that used to yield copious quantities of petroleum. It’s the sound of an oilfield rolling over its peak.
Activists shut down construction of LNG gas terminal in Milford Haven
Protesters against the continued and unrestrained promotion of fossil fuel projects by the UK government have blockaded the main vehicle access route into the new LNG pipeline terminal near Milford Haven, South Wales. Their aim is to highlight the serious environmental and safety issues surrounding this project, and to call for a more sober approach to the impending energy crisis.
Possible energy crisis threatens Namibia
Namibian President Hifikepunye Pohamba has urged the country's parliament to pass the Electricity Bill before it without further delay in order to avert an "impending (energy) crisis".
India on the front line in energy war
While the United States has been stealthily finessing a pretext for launching a military attack on Iran, it has also been prevailing on its close allies and friends to stay clear of bilateral political exchanges with Tehran. Isolation and containment of Iran and a "regime change" in that country have become the leitmotif of US foreign policy in the remaining two years of the presidency of George W Bush.But Washington either made an exception for India, or India after all didn't belong in the gallery of Washington's close or "natural" allies. At any rate, New Delhi acted in its best interests when Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee paid a two-day visit to Tehran on February 6-7.
Lithuania Pushes Plan To Outrun Russia Energy Blockade
In a scene reminiscent of the Berlin Airlift during the Cold War, Lithuania's president said Tuesday he is working on a plan to circumvent Russia's energy hold on Eastern Europe by opening its ports for oil transports from elsewhere.
Turkey Plans Oil, Gas Exploration in Eastern Med
Turkey will start oil and gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, the energy minister said, according to a TV station, weeks after Cyprus announced similar plans in deals with Egypt and Lebanon.
Putin in Jordan, offering alternative to US
Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the last leg of a Middle East tour of three US allies, was to meet Jordan’s King Abdullah and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday in a clear show of Russia’s regional ambitions.
Gulf states urged to invest in infrastructure
Bahrain and other countries in the Gulf must not overlook the opportunities that increased oil revenues has helped to give the property market, said Works and Housing Minister Fahmi Al Jowder.
British Energy calls for partners to build new wave of nuclear plants
British Energy called yesterday for partners to help build a new generation of nuclear plants by 2016, fuelling expectations that the government will give the final go-ahead within weeks for more atomic power.
New Technology Makes Biofuel From Any Renewable Oil
Diversified Energy Corp., an alternative and renewable energy company, announced Tuesday an exclusive licensing agreement with North Carolina State University for Centia, a “100 percent green” biofuels technology that produces high performance fuels from any renewable oil.
LS9 Launched to Create Renewable Petroleum(TM) Biofuels
LS9 Inc., the Renewable Petroleum Company(TM), announced its launch today. Founded in 2005, the company is pursuing industrial applications of synthetic biology to produce proprietary biofuels. LS9's products, currently under development, are designed to closely resemble petroleum derived fuels, but be renewable, clean, domestically produced, and cost competitive.
Solar Power Breakthrough: IAUS Hits Milestone Previously Thought to Be Impossible
International Automated Systems, Inc. (OTCBB: IAUS - News) announced today that it has successfully finished its first high-volume run of its new breakthrough solar panels. Nearly 1,000 Kilowatts of IAUS's solar panels were manufactured in a short 24-hour run. On a 24/7 operating schedule, an estimated 350 Megawatts of IAUS panels can be produced annually. In comparison, a traditional photovoltaic (PV) solar module manufacturing plant with a yearly capacity equal to IAUS would cost an estimated $840 Million to construct.
Madrid Temperature Could Top 50 Celsius by 2100
ummer temperatures in Madrid could soar to 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) by the end of this century if global warming continues unchecked, an Environment Ministry report said on Tuesday.
There has been a buzz in the air lately. It's the sound of U.S.-based Citizenre, a new multi-level marketing machine targeting solar power. Their plan? Build "the world's largest" solar cell and module manufacturing plant with the stated intention to install 100,000 residential systems annually. Their pitch? You can have solar electric power for the same price that you currently pay for electricity. Sign up now and they will do the installation in September as long as your state offers net metering.
U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), Carl Levin (D-Mich.), and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) today joined with a bipartisan coalition to introduce legislation to increase transparency and oversight for the electronic over-the-counter trading of energy commodities, such as oil, natural gas, coal and electricity.
The Renewed Stake in Oil Shale
Oil shale is about to make another break for the energy spotlight. The U.S. has just given the green light for development, but utilizing Colorado's massive reserves has always been a risky venture.
A little valentine from Al-Qaeda: Al-Qaida threatens Canada's oil facilities
Al-Qaida has called for terrorist strikes against Canadian oil and natural gas facilities to "choke the U.S. economy."An online message, posted Thursday by a the Al-Qaida Organization in the Arabian Peninsula, declares "we should strike petroleum interests in all areas which supply the United States like Canada," the No. 1 exporter of oil and gas to the U.S.
"The biggest party hurt will be the industrial nations, and on top of them, the United States."
Oil has peaked, but where's the data? analyst asks
One of the leading exponents of the peak oil theory that reserves have gone beyond maximum production and entered irreversible decline urged the world's oil industry to build a data base to prove whether he is right.Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based investment banking firm Simmons & Co. International, has argued world crude oil supply probably peaked in 2005.
Russia: A Critical Evaluation of its Natural Gas Resources
The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and its replacement by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), prominent among which was the Russian Federation, was a welcome event around the world. However, the subsequent development of Russian resources – particularly natural gas – has been disappointing. And the future of the Russian gas sector could be even worse. Contrary to widely-held beliefs, if current trends continue, Russia will have a severe natural gas shortfall by 2010. This prediction is astonishing given that Russia has more gas reserves than any other country, and one of the largest reserves-to-production ratios.
Brazil sees biofuel demand as unsustainable
Loek Boonekamp, head of the OECD´s commercial and marketing division, told attendees at Agra FNP's Outlook Brazil conference in Sao Paulo that plans to boost biofuel production often cannot be justified in economic terms and may be unsustainable.
Chevron CEO calls for U.S. to triple ethanol use
Chevron Corp.'s top executive called on Tuesday for the United States to triple the amount of ethanol it uses for transportation in the next decade, a target short of President George W. Bush's own plan to boost use of the biofuel.
Australian of the Year and leading scientist Dr Tim Flannery has questioned the viability of clean coal technology, saying it may be made redundant by cheaper and greener energy resources.
China coal producers cut exports
Chinese producers have cut thermal coal shipments to South Korean and Japanese power utilities on tight supply and high domestic prices, a move likely to spur price gains in an already tight Asian market.The news follows data Monday showing Chinese coal exports fell by nearly half in January from the previous month, raising fears the country's voracious appetite for energy will turn it into a net coal importer this year.
Analysis: Increasing oil sands production
Over the next 10 years, oil production from Canadian oil sands is expected to just about double to nearly 3 million barrels per day.Sustained investment and continuing advances in technology are indicators of exponential growth in the market, said Jeff Collins, director of exploration and production strategies for Cambridge Energy Research Associates, at CERA Week in Houston Tuesday.
Life on the Ethanol-Guzzling Prairie
What is happening here is a vision that many in rural America see as their salvation: high-performance moonshine from amber fields of grain, and a “grass station” in every town. It may be a chimera. It may drain precious water from the arid plains and produce less energy that it uses.But it has the undeniable power of an idea in ascendancy.
Green buildings need more incentives in U.S.
When it opens next year, the 54-story Bank of America Tower in New York will be the most environmentally friendly office building in the United States.It will produce most of its energy at an on-sit cogeneration plant. It will capture and reuse waste water and rainwater. And it uses recycled materials in its construction.
The building is the latest in a trend toward office buildings that use less energy and cause less global warming. But developers say that trend is being held back by insufficient government support.
Groups sue to protect marine mammals
Two conservation groups sued the federal government Tuesday claiming marine mammal regulators are not doing enough to protect polar bears and walruses against the combined threat of oil and gas exploration and global warming.
The Progressive Crises: Global Warming and Peak Oil
Every Progressive should recognize and incorporate, deep in their soul, the plain fact: Peak and Global Warming are the most serious threats to Progressive ideals, concepts, policies, and aspirations through the 21st century ... AND today.
The Ghawar Oil Field: How Much is Left?
Back in 2001, before the issue of energy scarcity ever entered my mind, I read a chilling online article called "Ghawar Is Dying" that bluntly speculated about the massive global upheavals modern industrial society would suffer if the largest oil field in Saudi Arabia were indeed running dry.The article represented an eye-opening, paradigm-changing revelation for me, as I began to understand how very fragile the way of life that millions of people take for granted actually is.
Export Land Model in Action
Moscow Now has Sprawl Suburbs
The unpaved, unlit roads are clogged with traffic. Getting to and from work in the center of Moscow is a 90-minute crawl each way
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/13/AR200702...
I have a slight modification to the Export Land Model. When poor nations, with little else to export, reach near zero exports, they will surpress domestic demand in order to sustain the remaining limited exports.
Indonesia is a small net oil exporter by $ (as UK may still be) and an importer by volume. Export high quality oil, import lower quality oil.
Last year Indonesia went without electricity rather than power oil fired stations with imported bunker oil. They were waiting for completion of Australian coal fired generation.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Russian oil production is reportedly up year over year, but domestic consumption is growing even faster, thus. . . lower oil exports. Russia should soon--probably this year--start reporting lower year over year crude oil production. Note that even though oil exports were down, cash flow was up (because oil prices went up faster than exports fell). This will change as domestic consumption gets closer to production.
http://www.prime-tass.com/news/show.asp?topicid=68&id=414927
Customs: Russia's crude oil exports down 2.4% on year in 2006
"This will change as domestic consumption gets closer to production."
I assume you mean cash flow from crude oil exports. Russia could increase foreign earnings even as exports plunge, if they used oil in domestic industries which generated exports or substitutes for imports. But given the amount of local ethanol consumption and assorted other issues, this is an unlikely scenario. So you are probably right.
That little graphic is so cute.
I live in Halifax, England. The other day some al qaida types were arrested 100 yards from my house. Our kids play with their kids, then their kids go off to the islamic education centres ,that are dotted around the town, for extra tuition. I try to be open minded about things but there isn't too much lurv between our two communities at the moment.
"there isn't too much lurv between our two communities at the moment"
That's one of the reasons I see Europeans as being more reluctant to confront radical islam in general. The fact that there is a sizable community within your own neighborhood that "might" be a direct threat to yourself is frightening and makes you less likely to want to antagonize them.
In the 70's there were two groups in the area where I grew up that were openly violent - one of which had radical, fundamentalist christian ties (100 %caucasian), the other a seperatist ethnic group.
It's not pleasant growing up within a community where there is little trust between neighbors. Especially during difficult economic times.
Good luck to you and your profound locale.
radical islam is not as big of a threat as it's blown up to be. the religious nuts you have to worry about are the Christian fundies and bush.
It remainds me about something i saw on television about IRA sometimes they used torture to get information and there was someone who said that he had reported one of his neighbour that he know was not a member.
replying here to get upthread real estateThe term thermo-gene collision has been thrown around here since I've been reading TOD. Like I was supposed to know what they were talking about. Never having been a regular reader of dieoff.org since it was a sort-of ugly website and the subject matter wasn't appealing, I hadn't read much of Jay Hanson's writing. Today I followed a link to one of his essays, so here goes for similarly ignorant TOD readers:
I really wish people wouldn't do that. It's confusing enough trying to follow the discussion without people jumping in randomly just to be higher up on the page.
I agree!
Properly chastised, I shall never do that again. Now all you need do is convince the other 9,999 upthread hangers-on.
Hi DIYer,
Well, this leaves me with the dilemna of where to reply. I'd like to comment on "It is our genetic legacy."
What constitutes "our genetic legacy" is a matter of on-going study and understanding.
"our genetic legacy"
Which I have just demonstrated by latching onto an upthread post.
( however, I shall endeavor to avoid becoming a troll )
Yep! When overcrowded, the behavior of rats changes radically, They start attacking each other, eating their own and others' young, etc.
Acting like people are starting to in some areas now.
I have some new, particularly psycho, neighbors now. And that brought an epiphany - the old public service justification for ham radio, being licensed, "an amateur's station and skills are always at the service of their community and country" and all that old stuff......that's all gone now. I've had one break-in attempt so far and things are pretty tense around here. We share a common walkway and they seem to have the old "us or you" attitude.
Needless to say, I'm at a higher alert level lately....
So, what I realized is, hell, I don't want to help out my community in case of disaster, I want to see the disaster wipe most of 'em out! Help a neighbor who's pinned under a fallen house or tree limb? Most likely, I'll help 'em out all right, by standing on their neck.
Ham radio is no longer about public service. I am no longer about public service. All my ham stuff is for sale, I will get a decent shortwave because I like to listen, may be fun listening to the edges of Empire unravel, then the center hehe. I don't need Icom or Yaesu or Kenwood, happiness is a warm gun :-)
I wonder if it's too late in life for me to work on studying on the creation and dispersal of viruses that will give Mother Earth the 90% trimdown in humans She needs?
Hi fleam,
"Needless to say, I'm at a higher alert level lately...."
It sounds tense. I hesitate to offer anything other than empathy. Still, this being the forum for sharing of information and all...
Here are a few links. The top one I posted the other day, when you were talking about TV, because I thought you might enjoy it. (And I was saying how much I enjoy the TV-free lifestyle.)
The "CNVC" thing - all I can say is, I've seen it work. It doesn't mean it has to work or always works, just that I've seen it.
And, I don't know...your area may be too crowded for any of this. But the more I read the Ashland CERT newsletters, I'm still amazed and in awe of what they're doing there. Anyway, check it out - maybe more fun than virology.
http://www.tvturnoff.org/ - Used to be called "TV-Free America".
www.cnvc.org
http://www.ashland.or.us/Page.asp?NavID=541
Yup.
And we are all sweet on Leanan, of course!
Happy Valentine's Day, Leanan!
No shortage of honey dripping here.
No, petroleum is going to run short, I hear.
Also, the honey bees are dying, so we will have to be sweet to one another.
"The beautiful creatures are going away...."
Read:
http://warsocialism.com/thermogenecollision.pdf
and check our E. O. Wilson "The Creation."
Our rather unloving species has had a cumulative effect on the planet similiar to a large meteor strike, according to Wilson. By 2050, over one-fourth of all species will be gone, by 2100, over one-half of all species will be gone.
Meanwhile, the political elites of our various nations are maneuvering to win a "last man standing" resource war.
Darn, so much for the honey dripping. I think I just wet myself.
I do not control others or the planet. Most of the time I barely control myself. i do try to do my bit for a peaceful and just world tomorrow, even so. I sure do not control the outcome of how tomorrow will be.
But hey, Happy Valentine's Day!
I recall that honeybees experienced an epidemic a few years ago caused by a bacteria. Unlike us mammals insects can adapt to and bounce back from environmental challenges quickly.
I guess you missed that article about Rwanda going from genocide to overpopulation (again) pretty darn quick. They are mammals too. :)
If the other posters in TOD don’t mind, I’d like to continue a thread that I started in Drumbeat yesterday (2/13/07).
I posted this in response to a post where Westexas brough up the “Export Land Model”:
This was Westexas’ response:
I am not so sure that in all cases, governments of countries will always fully satisfy internal demand first before resorting to exports.
To grow the wealth of a nation, you must have exports to build a positive trade balance, which allows the central bank of each country to build a reserve of foreign currency. In many Middle Eastern countries, oil is their only exportable product. In the case of Iran, if they were to simply cease exports and all oil produced will be utilized for internal consumption, the local economy of Iraq will simply be an exchange of fiat currency between the internal consumers and internal producers with the government and the nation getting none the richer.
In the case of the government of Saudi Arabia, the United States provides protection to its leaders (both from internal SA and external to SA threats) in exchange for guaranteed oil exports. If oil production declined in Saudi Arabia and its leaders had to make a decision between satisfying internal demand 100%, or rationing internal demand and continuing exports which will increase the country’s wealth and guarantee continued security from the United States to remain in power, which do you think the leaders will chose?
While I think that the “land export model” makes logical sense if all players behaved rationally based on typical free market business behavior, I believe that it is to simplistic to account for the sometimes non-rational behavior that can be enforced through military, economic, and geopolitical means.
I have proposed Phase One and Phase Two in oil exporting countries.
Phase One: lots of net oil exports and rapidly growing cash flow.
Phase Two: as domestic consumption gets perilously close to domestic production, governments will be in a quandary, between meeting domestic demand and curtailing domestic demand in order to export oil.
As Alan pointed out, Russia is in Phase One, while Indonesia is in Phase Two.
However, the key point is that the net oil exports from countries approaching Phase Two status will be negligible. So, actually it won't really matter a whole lot whether domestic demand is curtailed in favor of exports.
In any event, at this point in time, most large oil exporting countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, are showing very rapid increases in domestic consumption.
BTW, we are going to see this Export Land effect within countries. Net energy producing areas will tend to do somewhat better than net energy consuming areas.
Jeffrey,
Have you ever thought or written about the convergence of the Export Land Model and the Olduvai Theory?
What I'm thinking of is this:
Richard Duncan, in his latest paper, to which a link was posted here recently, defines "e", as energy production per capita. In the papaer, he uses the US as a model for the world, with a time-shift:
US "e" peaked in 1970, and had a "stagnation" period till 1998, defined as a 0.6% yearly decline. From '98 to now, there is a 1.8% yearly decline.
Of course the US still seems to be doing somewhat alright, but, and here we come upon ELP, it managed to survive, as is, only through increasing energy imports (and printing money, and sucking suckers into mortgage debt)
According to Olduvai, world "e" will stagnate from 1979 till 2008-2012 (at a plus 0.2% rate), after which a decline comparable to that of the US will set in.
And as world energy per capita declines, less is available for export, and hence for import by the US. In other words: the US will be hit very hard by ELP, because it depends on imports more than most nations.
Except for:
(I tried to explain this somewhere last night, and concluded with:)
".. post-2008, countries have two options: buy printing presses, or invade other nations."
Down the thread, I rhetorically asked what the current count is for the number of aircraft carrier battle groups in or headed to the Middle East.
1/ 3 groups means war, only 5 exist
2/ that's no answer to the question about the similarities bewteen ELP and OT
http://www.rawstory.com//news/2007/ExCIA_officials_see_outbreak_of_confl...
Better link to original Harpers blog article -->
http://harpers.org/sb-war-with-ir-1171457451.html
Hello New Account,
My Al-Jazerra link late last night on the bombing deaths of 18 Iranian guards into martyrs doesn't help either. They pointedly suspect UK and/or US involvement in radical political groups inside Iran. I certainly hope this is not true. Infuriating if it is true.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hello TODers,
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070214/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush
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Defending U.S. intelligence that has pinpointed Iran as a hostile arms supplier in Iraq, Bush said, "Does this mean you're trying to have a pretext for war? No. It means I'm trying to protect our troops."
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A possible tipping point on the global teeter-totter?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
once iran is attacked, all bets are off. tptb would of at that moment sealed our fate on the 'last man standing' path.
because even now if the u.s. got on it's knees and begged other country's to help and in return help them deal with these issues well we might have a chance to peacefully deal with allot inevitable decline.
Yes, because the US/UK condone bombing people in a terrorist manner all over the world :rolls eyes:
Bring out the US/UK flamers and their ridiculous comparisons.
hothgor, how many civilians were bombed in iraq while the us/uk was busy searching for wmds?
None intentionally, and no where near as many as were killed during Saddams Regime. Apples to oranges here...typical liberal nut.
and how many wmds were found ?
Actually they did find a cache of chem