DrumBeat: March 7, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 7, 2007 - 10:04am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The Wide-Spread Use of Advanced Extraction Techniques are Killing the Mother of All Oil Fields...Ghawar’s obituary has already been written, but the Saudis have thus far prevented the appropriate authorities from entering the house to inspect the body. We have only second hand reports of her demise. Of these accounts, the most notable is investment banker Matthew Simmons’ book Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. Simmons assembles a picture of declining Saudi production from publicly available technical reports written by Saudi-Aramco’s own reservoir engineers in recent decades. His portrayal of the situation is dire indeed. He claims that “When Saudi Arabia peaks (enters the unavoidable state of permanent production decline) the world, categorically, has peaked.” It looks like the 2006 numbers confirm Simmons’ 2005 prophecy.
The writers at the Oil Drum, a data driven oil analysis website, after assessing the production data from several independent reporting agencies, claim that Saudi production is down a whopping 8% in 2006 from 2005 numbers. The decline would have been closer to 14% without the addition of the Haradh III mega-project. They assert that Saudi Arabia has now officially peaked and that the pace of production decline there is likely to accelerate. Remember, Ghawar accounts for 60% of Saudi production.
Possible Rash Actions by New Congress Concern an Oil Industry Economist
Q: Everyone talks about "peak oil," the idea that the oil that is available to drill will start declining. Is that a problem?A: The problem is we actually know extremely little about how much oil is in the ground. And that is why we've had "peak oil" people since the 1880s saying we're going to run out of oil.
And they've been wrong. In the 1880s, they thought the only oil in the country was in the state of Pennsylvania, and once it ran out, we were out of oil.
Do you think gasoline prices are too high? Do you think illegal immigration is a problem? Well, get ready for more of both, because Mexico, the #3 supplier of imported fuel to the U.S., is spiraling into a quiet energy crisis that could interrupt our oil supplies, send shockwaves through our economy, and force a million or more Mexicans to migrate across our border.
Industries Urge EU to Reconsider Renewables Policy
European margarine, paper, wood, furniture and some chemical industries urged the European Union on Tuesday not to adopt a plan to introduce binding targets for renewable energy and biofuels.The industries are concerned about the potential impact "of current shortages and price increases of their raw material, as a result of the European Commission's narrow focus on targets for renewable energies," they said in a joint statement.
Skills shortage threatens to stall oil and gas boom
DUBAI — A significant skills shortage in the oil and gas industry is threatening to stall the oil and gas boom that is occurring. The industry has stretched its resources to breaking point, say consultants at Booz Allen Hamilton.
Proposed second nuclear plant is called dangerous and a burden
The Maryland Public Interest Research Group launched a grass-roots campaign yesterday to stop Constellation Energy from building a new nuclear reactor on the shores of Chesapeake Bay, saying the technology will burden ratepayers and provide a dangerous solution to the state's energy crisis.
2 NREL scientists take share of Dan David prize
Two solar-power innovators at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden will share this year's $1 million Dan David Future Prize with a NASA climate scientist, according to the prize's website.
Energy companies are proving the environmentalists right
All around the GTA, gas stations were running low on fuel. Many even had to turn people away as they ran out. This drove prices up and has screwed us consumers. If we don’t act now, the oil companies are going to take us for all we’re worth. Duping us with fake stories of "fires" and “refinement capacity reductions.” We may be stupid enough to become wholly dependent on buying gas as an essential part of our lives, but do they really think we are stupid enough to buy that supplies are low?
Indonesia: Minister says rising water threatens airport
State Minister for the Environment Rachmat Witoelar warned Tuesday that Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta airport would be swamped by 2050 due to human-induced global warming."We will need to move the airport as it will be underwater that year because of rising sea levels. We will also say goodbye to Taman Impian Jaya Ancol and the Kelapa Gading housing complex," the minister said Tuesday.
Preserving finite energy sources for future generations
We are all painfully aware that our energy sources, such as oil and natural gas, are a finite resource that we as a society have neglectfully abused and taken for granted over the decades.
Romania to increase use of nuclear power
Romanian Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu called Tuesday for the building of two more nuclear reactors to be speeded up."Due to the world energy crisis and rising prices, nuclear energy is being reconsidered," said Tariceanu, adding that Romania's economy was growing rapidly and needed to diversify its energy resources.
Uganda: Fuel Supply Low in City
Fuel companies are grappling with reduced supplies of petroleum products, resulting from "logistical" problems in the supply chain on the Kenyan side. Shell Uganda Managing Director Ivan Kyayonka told Daily Monitor this week that there has been a general scarcity in the industry for over a week.
Portland striving to cut fuel consumption in half by 2030
Portland commissioners are expected to pass a resolution today that requires the city to adopt a goal of cutting oil and natural gas consumption in half by 2030 to head off predictions of a looming oil shortage.
North Sea under Fire from Peak Oil
The North Sea peaked more than eight years ago. And peak oil has disrupted the North Sea's oil production to the point that the UK is scrambling to exploit its vast reserves. But will they abandon their aging fields for greener arctic oil pastures?
Palm oil looks for new high on India, U.S. demand
Palm oil prices are holding on to last year's strong gains, despite a global flight from risky assets, and when industry analysts gather in Malaysia next week they are likely to say that the rally is far from over.Bullish demand from India to the United States and dry weather hurting supplies in Indonesia could push prices to new highs for the product widely used as a cooking oil but also for cosmetics, soaps and, increasingly, for fuel.
U.S. Iran Policy: It’s All About the Oil
When discussing “peak oil”, it is also important to mention that over the past 35 years, we have discovered just one gigantic oil field anywhere in the world. For sure, there have been some discoveries in different parts of the world, but only a single world-class oil-field has been discovered in over three decades; Kazakhstan’s Kashagan Oil Field in the Caspian Sea. This is despite all the technological achievements over the same period. In other words, unless we have been incredibly unlucky and there is indeed a jackpot waiting to be found, this is not a healthy sign.
Chinese Scientists Make Future Energy Suggestions
As the conventional petroleum shortage becomes increasingly acute and the crude oil prices keep soaring, the markets for non-conventional petroleum (referring only to extra-heavy oil, and the petroleum from oil sands and oil-shale) are expected to constantly expand, partly making up for the shortfall. Resources of coal and natural gas are relatively abundant in this country, and their conversion into the fuel driving transport vehicles is now technologically viable and could be competitive when prices of conventional fuels are at the high end of the range. During the period of the world's transition to a post-petroleum economy, increased use of coal and natural gas as a substitute of conventional fuel should be possible. Other optional substitutes include biomass-based ethanol, carbinol, dimethyl ether, bio-diesel, synthetic oil and hydrogen, which are also internationally seen as a direction for development. Equally significant are technological innovations with regard to transport vehicles. There is a need to develop energy-efficient vehicles, vehicles using substitute fuels or powered by electricity, as road transport is a most important part of the transport and communication industry. Rail transit system is a major approach for public transportation and a main way of energy conservation.
Sound waves turn natural gas into liquid
Worldwide, 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas is wasted every year. Now, the Denver-based company Swift LNG aims to turn that gas into a usable liquid fuel with a thermoacoustic natural gas liquefaction technology just licensed from Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Bank of America Announces $20 Billion Environmental Initiative
Bank of America Corporation announced today a $20 billion initiative to support the growth of environmentally sustainable business activity to address global climate change. Bank of America's ten-year initiative encourages development of environmentally sustainable business practices through lending, investing, philanthropy and the creation of new products and services.
Solar Energy Conversion Offers A Solution To Help Mitigate Global Warming
Solar energy has the power to reduce greenhouse gases and provide increased energy efficiency, says a scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory, in a report published in the March issue of Physics Today.
Study: Renewable Energy, Efficiency Pay Off In Long Term
A study released Tuesday on energy said renewable energy and energy efficiency can buy enough time to create power sources of the future, without falling back on polluting programs of the past.
As warnings grow more dire, Nobelist emerges as leader
Steve Chu keeps up with all the latest news on climate change, and he knows it's bad.The Nobel-winning physicist can tell you the projected meltdown rates for the snowpacks of Tibet and the Sierra Nevada. Rivers drying up and millions of people on the move looking for a drink of water? That future, a fantasy just a few years ago, has entered the realm of the possible.
But Chu isn't just talking.
As head of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, he is focusing all divisions of the most intellectually diverse of the U.S. Energy Department's national labs on a campaign to stand and fight.
Miliband outlines 'post-oil' future
The environment secretary David Miliband will today outline the case for a post-oil economy, arguing that the UK needs to move away from "oil dependence".
China abandons annual energy saving targets
China has abandoned annual energy saving targets because not all its efforts to boost efficiency will bear fruit immediately, but it is still sticking to a five-year goal, a top official said on Wednesday.
A switch to biofuels will not save the planet
Ethanol may sound like the kind of "friendly" energy the world has been waiting for. But for ethanol production to rise to the levels Mr Bush is hoping for, huge amounts of the world's remaining forests will have to be cut down and turned over to corn or sugar cane.
EU faces test in fight to curb climate change
European Union leaders will seek to make history this week with a new pact to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but a row over renewable energy threatens to taint the bloc's credentials in fighting climate change.
A Call to Action: Climate Change, extraction and energy production in the Western United States
When gas prices doubled in 2005 and never came back down it caused widespread concern about peak oil, and awareness that oil is not a reliable source of fuel into the future. The nation watched as Al Gore won two Oscars for his global warming documentary film, An Inconvenient Truth. The scientific community has verified that our energy and transportation habits accelerate global warming.
Massachusetts: Deep Green Resistance Gathering
From April 6-8, in Deerfield Massachusetts, join us for a weekend of exploring long range strategy, direct action, oppression, peak oil, natural living, and the deep questions of how to mend our hearts and sustain our spirits in these hard times. Good fun, great food, and the quiet woods also included.
No War for Oil, No Oil for War
Combine the strengths of the environmental and anti-war movements to defeat U.S. Middle East policy, end the Iraq War, and join the global community in the common struggle for a sustainable future.
Saudi Arabia mulls Dominican refinery
Saudi Aramco already has refineries in the United States, but Saudi officials see a Caribbean refinery as a means of accessing the U.S. market while avoiding the decades of environmental impact studies and other regulations needed to build a refinery in the United States, Nail Al-Jubeir, spokesman for the Saudi embassy in Washington, told The Associated Press by telephone.
Announcing the CERA News Center Archive
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) is introducing an information and news archive where readers can find current energy-related articles and media postings.Compiled articles cover topics such as energy security measures, oil-related economics and utility research. One archive citation by Industrial Manufacturing reveals that recent CERA research analysis suggests that the remaining global oil resource base is actually three times as large as the "Peak Oil" theory suggests.
Byron W. King: False Reporting of Peak Oil
As is the case with much of what gets published in The New York Times, some of the information in the article is true. But then again, to the well-trained and highly polished Peak Oil mind, the article has a lot of disinformation in it about what is the long-term state of the oil patch. In a not-so-subtle manner, the Times article appears to diminish the credibility of the Peak Oil argument. Specifically, the Times article focuses on allaying any Manhattanite fears of future scarcity of conventional oil by suggesting that "new technology" will locate and extract immense volumes of oil with which mankind will, to all intents and purposes, power its way into a brighter future. It is as if we can now all kick back, pop a beer, wipe the sweat from our collective brow, and say, "Whew, we dodged that Peak Oil bullet."
Uncertainties plague global gas industry
Growing nationalism in major gas producing countries, lack of progress on key pipeline projects in Asia and uncertainties surrounding gas-handling and internal transmission issues in China and India overall paint a disturbing picture for the global natural gas industry.
Chavez wants to prove that Venezuela — not Saudi Arabia — holds the largest oil reserves in the world.
Success derails biofuels bandwagon
A global, government policy-fuelled rush to produce biofuels is backfiring as it pushes up costs and makes the environmentally-friendly alternative fuel far less competitive.
Calls for OPEC-style gas cartel become louder
Gas exporting countries meeting in Doha in April will discuss forming an OPEC-like group Iran's oil minister Kazem Vazeri-Hamaneh says. This follows calls by Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni for Russia and other natural gas producers to establish a gas cartel.
The Disastrous Local and Global Impacts of Tropical Biofuel Production
As ADM, one of the world’s largest food companies, seeks to increase profits, the continuing push into the tropics by it and other biofuel producers will only accelerate a potential ecological catastrophe. Vast tracts of Malaysian and Indonesian forest have already been lost, and the increasing demand for palm oil for biodiesel will cause further losses of tropical forests in these and other equatorial countries.This deforestation will likely be devastating. And yet, despite the global push for biofuels, the potential damage – increased soil erosion, huge carbon dioxide emissions, biodiversity loss, and desertification – is largely being ignored.
Canada will stay top U.S. oil supplier for 20 years
Canada - which in 2005 replaced Saudi Arabia as the single-largest supplier of energy to the U.S. - will continue that position over at least the next two decades, thanks to the multi-billion dollar oilsands developments in Alberta.
Report: Oil sands costs up 55 percent
Capital costs per peak flowing barrel of Canada's oil sands are up 55 percent, squeezing returns on investments, a report released Tuesday said.
Like eternal sunshine or perpetual motion, a world beyond oil is something that sounds delightful but implausible. Society has become so addicted to the black stuff that the habit seems permanent. But if that turns out to be true then all the bold talk about tackling change means little. Technologies such as carbon capture and fuel efficiency may reduce the harm that oil use causes - but any gains will be wiped out by economic growth around the world.
Reserves are depleted, except in Russia
BP suffered a one billion barrel decline in its oil and gas reserves last year, according to figures in its annual report, a loss only partially made up by its Russian arm, the joint venture TNK-BP which was the only oil province in which BP added substantial fuel to its tank.
Has the theory of peak oil peaked?
Sure looks that way from the available evidence. It's comforting that, yet again, the doom and gloom crowd gets it wrong. Now, onto dealing with carbon emissions ...
World Oil Outlook: Markets Tighten, Consumption To Increase
World oil markets have tightened in recent weeks in response to a series of production cuts by members of OPEC, as well as the return of cold winter weather in North America. Although some OPEC members advocated additional cuts when prices had not firmed by January, Saudi Arabia noted that oil inventories had been falling.
In California, It Pays To Go Green
The builders at a California subdivision aren't just putting up homes; they're building little power plants. Solar panels are standard on every roof.
The author of this article, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2007/2007030524470.ht... is what I dislike about Global warming advocates as opposed to global warming scholars. A global warming advocate wrote the article and professional climate specialists did the study. The study is not connected to global warming, although it is connected to possible climate change.
The glacier does not drain 8% of the ice sheet into the ocean, a little misleading. The ice stream is similar to a river and the drainage basin is similar to a rivers watershed.
35 billion tons of ice is equivalent 7cubic miles of ice and if that 7 cubic miles is distributed over an area the size of the US it would be about 4 mill-meters thick 5/32". Is there an annual snowfall equivalent to 4 mm of water?
If the movement of this glacier were to break loose or carry enough bedrock with it, it could provide a means for the free flow of an enormous amount of liquid water to the ocean and this could effect climate change by altering the ocean currents.
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is about the size of the continental USA. According to this the Recovery Glacier ice stream drains about 8% of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The 35 billion tons of ice is thus equivalent to 50 mm of water per year (4mm x 12.5) in the drainage area.
This article indicates that average annual snowfall in the central area of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is about 50 mm per year, water equivalent.
Poor wording could indeed allow readers to believe the area drained, rather than the entire ice sheet, is as large as the continental USA.
Thanks for the link: I shall say it again that's what laziness gets you. I had the data right beside me. Antarctica, the entire continent is 5.4 million sq. miles.
4mm was based on 3 million sq miles. Should have been about 240 thousand. Need to read slower.
I realise this comment is misplaced. However, a huge possible find needs to be known. I would appreciate any feedback on this.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=42208
I have a very vested interest in an oil company exploring in this basin.
The company I am concerned with is called verenex energy. I own a sizable amount of stock in this. If this discovery is true, it will add some 10% to the world's known oil reserves. In short, it is a potential Ghawar (in that league anyway). I agree completely with the concerns about resource depletion. That's why I dumped a bunch of money into this young company in the first place. I've been in a cold sweat since I first read the anouncement. The next few days will tell the tale.
Hoping for a stay of execution on the energy front.
Best,
Jim
Hello James_Benison,
Thxs for this info. If 100 billion barrels is truly recoverable.....to the shores of Tripoli......expect US Marines to bring freedom and democracy to this geography soon.
EDIT: I am not a geologist, but I hope this PDF link helps:
http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/WEcont/regions/reg2/p2/tps/AU/au205431.pdf
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Dear Sir,
I am every bit as skeptical as you are. One glaring omission in this report is whether these "100 billion barrels" are proven, probable, possible, or original oil in place. Secondly, given the language barrier, questions arise as to whether the anouncement might have skipped a decimal point or two (ie million--billion etc...)
In terms of the scope of the discovery, the Libyan National Oil Company stated today that: "This may just increase the availability of oil worldwide which may eventually have an impact on oil prices." That would suggest to me that the discovery is major. My modus operandi is to simply define what is the truth.....not to create it.
Best,
Jim
"RESERVES ARE BELIEVED TO BE WELL OVER 100 BILLION BARRELS, POSSIBLY THE LARGEST IN AFRICA."
This does not need to be played up by me. This is HUGE!!! I'm not just working this for a stock price. The fields I'm vested in are probably 100km away from this discovery, albiet in the same basin. This discovery possibly holds global significance.
I think you misread the article - Libya's reserves are estimated to be 100 billion barrels, not this find alone. And at current consumption rates of 85 million barrels per day, 100 billion barrels is good for about 1176 days. That's right, finding 100 billion barrels means about 3 more years of living like we do right now, in terms of gross amounts. Just because a planet is finite doesn't mean it isn't large.
Respectfully, I must disgree, but I see your point.
Estimated resrves for Libya are/were approximately 39 billion barrels. You are correct in pointing out that the 100 billion barrel figure could include previous discoveries. Unfortunatelty, it is unclear at this point whether the recent Ghadames disovery is an addition to currently known reserves or an estimate of new reserves that have been recently discovered. Regardless, the size and scope of the recent Ghadames discovery will at the very least, if proven to be true, double Libya's reserves. The actual figure could be much more.
On another note,
given the current depletion rate of the world's oil fields, I do not suggest that new discoveries will offset current declines. Simply because I offer evidence that new production will be seen in the future does not prove that the earth will be able to satiate the needs of the global population.
If you want to stay in the scientific camp, argument against arguments (like you do in the later part of your message), not against vaguely identified group of people (global warming advocates).
I know many scientifically trained anti-gw advocates (against continued severe global warming as a trend, not as fact).
Then again, we must remember that the daily discussion and the hearts and minds of people isn't won over by scientific facts, although decisions on what to advocate should be based on those.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=202857707
yergin on CNBC
The debunkers are working hard these days
Once again, in the SAME breath, Yergin says that there is lots of oil, only we have to pay more for it. End of cheap oil is not being disputed.
Couple that with the "receding horizons" posted on below, and you can get very frustrated with how the facts are being presented.
I've got the same problem. I go to the store, there is plenty of stuff for me to buy but I just can't afford all of it. Looks like we need to work on the peak money problem.
street, just get yourself another credit card. That's what everyone else does.
...and remember: it isn't how much you have in the bank or your current income that is important. It's how much you will have once you win the lottery.
'Dollar discount' is something which occurs to me could explain a bit in terms of oil pricing, better than the oft stated 'risk premium.'
Maybe the 'natural' price of oil is $40 - that is, 40 'real' dollars, but since no one exporting oil today honestly expects 40 dollars to be worth anywhere near that amount in the future, a dollar discount applies.
I realize this is just a thrown out idea, utterly casual, but it certainly changes the meaning of risk premium to something that the exporters take into account, and not the America-centric commentators who come up with the buzz words which now pass for informed discussion.
And it just might provide a reason why the price of oil stays so stubbornly high at around $60, without referencing either economic conditions or peak oil.
There is a decades old blood-pact between the US and KSA: the latter accepts only dollars for its oil and the former guarantees that the dollar will keep its position as the main global reserve currency, i.e. it maintains its global purchasing power at a reasonable level. This is also the reason why KSA's currency, the Saudi riyal, is hard pegged to the US dollar.
There is a symbiotic relationship between the US and KSA: oil powers America and backs the dollar (much as gold used to in the past) and America keeps the Sauds in power via its military might. Just about everything else is derived.
Peak Oil is, therefore, anathema to both.
No question about KSA - but while a major market player, they aren't the only one. For example, what is the risk premium that the Norwegians are willing to accept? The Russians? The Iranians (a special case, admittedly)? Algeria? Libya? Various former Soviet republics? Or is it noteworthy that none of those exporters are really that American oriented?
If you are such a country you fall into line with KSA because oil is fungible and:
a) They are the swing producer
b) They have huge reserves and can outlast you
They can ruin you economically by opening the taps to maximum.
However, if those conditions no longer apply, (i.e. Peak Saudi Oil) the world is a VERY different place. Twilight in the Desert is equivalent to Twilight of the Dollar, Twilight of America, Twilight of the Sauds. Unacceptable - period.
The US is sitting on top of Iraq, ~#3 in global oil reserves and just a hop skip and jump from Iran, itself #2.
Why?
Because the US way of life (=dollar supremacy) is non-negotiable. If KSA cannot guarantee it, then Iraq and Iran will. Willingly or not.
It's that simple.
"It's that simple."
But the devil is in the details. Those Iranians don't seem to be interested in cooperating. And the Iraqis are quite obviously opposed.
Hell: What's simple is that currently you are getting your butt kicked by a bunch of guys running around the desert with no tanks, no planes, no military hardware of any kind.
You misunderstand. The connection is that simple.
The supreme stupidity of continuing such a scheme comes from the same team that brought us the response to Katrina. Pathetic, incompetent failures with grand designs for re-shaping the Middle East instead of re-shaping the US energy regime.
And no PXs, no coolers stocked with chilled drinks, no ice cream makers, no private accomodations, no 3 squares a day, no pension or education funding, limited medical treatment, no security for spouse and children and any other extended family members, no protection from airstrikes and random "collateral damage."
The only thing they do have is a fierce determination to remove the occupation army from their lands. This is the same motivation that drve the maquis in France, the FLN in Algeria, the colonial rebels in 18th century New England and in countless other conflicts.
Americans need to study their own history and reflect on how a rag tag band of colonial rebels defeated the worlds only superpower.
New: You left out the Vietnamese. The home field advantage is often huge in these conflicts.
Yup. For the obvious reason: the natives have nowhere else to go, while the occupiers do.
It seems to me that Tim McVeigh came back from the First Gulf War with the same impression. He seemed to empathize with the plight of the occupied and implied that collateral damage was a acceptable in the larger scope. I wonder how many Tim McVeighs will be returning from this engagement?
THAT ought to bring out the gold bugs!
Hopefully not, but my attempt was simply to reframe the idea of risk premium - maybe the true risk premium is that dollars will be worth less into the future - obviously, 'worth' is an open invitation to the heavy metal crowd (well, maybe not that heavy), but it wasn't really meant that way.
For example, high quality Russian weapons seem to be selling pretty well, and Japanese consumer electronics are still considered the finest, and it remains hard to beat the appeal of European luxury cars - are the various oil export magnates weighing their future with such things in mind, or do they think US T-bills remain their best bet?
What risk premium are we really talking about it, in the eyes of the oil exporters? Apart from being invaded, of course, though these days, invading an oil exporter seems like a good way to reduce oil exports, not increase them.
The currency risk can be hedged in the market to almost any other currency, if they desired. They don't have to take any single currency risk. And that kind of hedge isn't going to produce a $40/$60 spread.
Yes they could - but at this time, not very well, as the dollar does maintain a world reserve currency function. Swiss francs are pretty solid, for example, but being tied to physical reserves, they can't simply be printed to match demand. The euro is much less constrained, but the Bundesbank component of the currency system hates and fears inflation.
Unfortunately, likely because the idea isn't really that good, there wasn't much discussion looking at the world through the eyes of various oil exporters - we are pretty much fixed in our views as oil consumers, without recognizing the exporters' framework.
Probably the best way to judge the "real" worth of the US dollar is against a barrel of oil.
In 1960 it took $1 to buy a barrel, today it takes $60. That's a crude measure of the drop in the dollar's purchasing power, but it is better than comparing it against gold or other currencies. After all, what better measure of "worth" than energy?
Thus, if the dollar devalues too much against oil, it could lose its global reserve status. The higher the dollar price of oil, the worse for the US currency and the US economy, from a monetary perspective alone.
But in 1960, the US was still using silver for its coins - 90% silver - which means that using the idea that a silver dollar weighed roughly one ounce, a barrel of oil today is worth roughly 15 dollars measured by those theoretically uninflated dollars.
Or there is no coupling between the price of silver and the price of oil, of course.
The US went completely off the gold standard in 1971. In any case, money in circulation (coins or even dollar bills) was and is a tiny portion of total money supply.
Try another "hard" asset, the average house. It, too, has gone up tremendously in dollar price. It is not that the house has gotten more "valuable" - after all it is more or less the same thing: wood, tiles, etc. It's the dollar that has depreciated against it.
In 1963 the median price of a house in the US was $17.000. Today it is $240.000.
For what it is worth, a standard bag [$1000 face] of circulated pre 1965 U.S. silver halves, quarters and dimes contains 715 ounces of silver.
The silver dollar contains a wee bit more silver than even the uncirculated smaller coins which were based on $1.39 per ounce of silver. The silver dollar contained the full silver content of a dollar which was officially pegged at $1.29 per ounce of silver.
I think the weight of U.S. silver coinage originally had something to do with the Spanish pieces of eight with the U.S. dollar weighing slightly less ... which resulted in the U.S. Trade Dollar a slightly heavier coin that was mostly exported to China.
By 1965 when the mint stopped making 90 percent coins for cirulation, the dollar had already been dramatically debased, it just took a while to burn through the U.S. stockpiles of silver.
Your main point is well taken, the dollar ain't what it used to be.