 | Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part One - "There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously" | The Oil Drum | Financial Intelligence: How Arbitrage Forensics Provide Insight into Saudi Knowledge |  |
DrumBeat: March 29, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 29, 2007 - 8:06am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Castro condemns U.S. biofuel plans
In Thursday's article Castro said more than 3 billion people in the world were condemned to die prematurely of hunger or thirst from plans by his ideological foe, the United States, to convert foodstuffs like corn into fuel for cars."This is not an exaggerated figure, it's more likely cautious," Castro wrote in the ruling Communist Party's daily newspaper.
The Iraq fuels commission tasked with providing fuel to the north of the country said the city of Mosul is paralyzed by a shortage.Syria suspended fuel shipments March 22, which compounded the already heightened shortage brought about by war, smuggling, insurgent attacks and lack of refining capacity.
Azerbaijan should pump gas to Georgia in crisis only, Azeri Energy Minister says
"The agreement, we have with Georgia, is expiring in April. We are supplying Georgia with associated gas coming from Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli Field. The gas exports were planned for winter, was aimed to bail Georgia out of energy crisis. I think we should help Georgia when it sees a crisis. But, Azerbaijan should think about itself now too. The more we pump to Georgia, the less we will have for our needs," he underscored.
Senate seeks energy pacts with India, China
The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee has approved two measures seeking formal agreements with India and China on international energy crisis response mechanisms and engaging them in a dialogue on climate change.
Thailand looks to deadly nuts for biofuel
On a large tract of land in Thailand’s dusty northeast, Suwit Yotongyot hopes to make a fortune on jatropha, a plant with a poisonous nut that might hold the key to the nation’s energy troubles.
Power plant repair delay spells energy crisis in Bulgaria
Bulgaria may face electricity shortages because of delays in the rehabilitation of a major lignite-fired power plant, an official said Wednesday.
CCID Consulting Reviews China's New Energy Industry
Mexico overcomes skepticism about Brazilian biofuels
Brazil and Mexico agreed to expand cooperation in trade and energy, preparing for possible joint oil exploration and the development of ethanol fuel, the foreign ministers of both countries said Wednesday.
What is needed is an honest look at the resources available on a local scale, with each part of the United States and each part of the world doing its own calculus based on logistics and logic.If the best "renewable" fuel we can think of costs more oil and water to produce than oil itself would cost, we should think again.
Book review : The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan
David Strahan’s book ‘The Last Oil Shock’ smartly covers the subject of Peak Oil in a way that makes it very educational to newcomers but at the same time sounding fresh and interesting to those well-read on this topic.
Ghana: Replace all energy consuming bulbs
The Energy Commission has recommended the replacement of six million incandescent lamps with contact fluorescent lamps throughout the country as a measure to conserve energy and help save the nation from the current energy crisis.
No matter how well they're engineered, hydrogen cars offer no real answer to the imminent threats posed by global warming.
Odessa-Brody oil pipeline project not anti-Russian - Polish President Kaczynski
The Odessa-Brody oil pipeline project, which would ship Caspian oil to Poland and Europe, is not an anti-Russian project, and there is technical justification to include Russia in the project, Polish President Lech Kaczynski said Thursday.
Study adds to case for electrification of Auckland Rail
“The study develops a model to examine the impact of peak oil on different kinds of urban development and shows that urban forms with higher densities and better public transport, as opposed to urban sprawl, are best able to cope with escalating oil prices,” says Russel Norman, Green Co-Leader and Economics Spokesperson.
Strike continues to block oil tankers in France
Strikers at France's Fos Lavera oil hub are meeting port and Gaz de France officials on Thursday in a fresh bid to find a way out of a 16-day strike threatening fuel supplies to motorists and exports to U.S. markets.Some refineries could start shutting down as soon as Friday if the dispute is not resolved, operators said.
"Greener" buildings could slow global warming
Better architecture and energy savings in buildings could do more to fight global warming than all curbs on greenhouse gases agreed under the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, a U.N. study showed on Thursday.Better use of concrete, metals and timber in construction and less use of energy for everything from air conditioners to lighting in homes and offices could save billions of dollars in a sector accounting for 30-40 percent of world energy use.
Many large cities at risk of rising seas
More than two-thirds of the world's large cities are in areas vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels, and millions of people are at risk of being swamped by flooding and intense storms, according to a new study released Wednesday.In all, 634 million people live in the threatened coastal areas worldwide — defined as those lying at less than 33 feet above sea level — and the number is growing, said the study published in the journal Environment and Urbanization.
Scientists say Antarctic ice sheet is thinning
A Texas-sized piece of the Antarctic ice sheet is thinning, possibly due to global warming, and could cause the world's oceans to rise significantly, polar ice experts said on Wednesday.
Australia launches forest fund to fight global warming
Australia Thursday committed 160 million US dollars to launch what it hopes will become an international fund to protect forests and fight global warming.Prime Minister John Howard said the initiative would achieve a greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions than if Australia bowed to pressure and signed up to the Kyoto Protocol.
More U.S. college students studying clean energy
Concern over global warming has more U.S. college students looking into careers in alternative energy, leading U.S. universities to add new courses on clean energy technologies and the environment.
Globalists Love Global Warming
We have a similar situation to the Peak Oil scam, which was created by the oil industry as a profit boon to promote artificial scarcity, and yet is parroted by environmentalists who grandstand as if they are in opposition to the oil companies.
Billions needed for Mozambique energy crisis
Mozambique will need about $5-billion (about R36-billion) invested in projects aimed at solving the energy crisis in the country, Vista News reported on Thursday.Energy minister, Salvador Namburete told reporters in Maputo that the government was seeking to augment electricity generation in the country by opening up new hydro-electric and natural gas projects.
Ethanol won't yield independence
Unfortunately, there is no way to replace the 13 million barrels, not gallons, of oil we import each day. "Energy independence" using food crops is a slogan, not a policy.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Alternatives #1 – Wind Power
Very soon we are going to have a more electrified civilization with the energy coming from the sun, the wind, the sea, the molten core of the earth, biomass, and perhaps exotic biological reactions. Until these new technologies come into widespread use —a transition that will be expensive and will take decades to accomplish— there will have to be serious conservation to see us through.
Utility TXU slapped with $210 million fine
State regulators on Wednesday recommended $210 million in fines against TXU Corp. after an investigation accused the state's largest utility of manipulating the electric market to its own benefit.The alleged market abuse was observed between June and September of 2005, according to the Public Utility Commission. It wound up costing consumers $70 million and earned the utility $20 million in extra profits, according to an outside expert whose report was released by state regulators two weeks ago.
Why Iran matters to oil markets
Tehran is ensnared in a growing dispute with the West. Traders are nervous it might pull its oil off the market.
The dirty secret about clean cars - Automakers push flex-fuel vehicles, get around efficiency standards
Canada wary of nuclear power for oil sands
Plans for nuclear power plants to supply electricity and steam to the Alberta oil sands should be put on hold until the full repercussions of using the technology are known, a Canadian parliamentary committee advised.
A new paper by The Heritage Foundation's Ben Lieberman road tests the latest boondoggle from Washington and finds that its earth-friendly claims are seriously overblown. So, too, is the notion that using more ethanol reduces oil imports and lowers prices at the pump. Worse, increased ethanol use drives up other consumer costs.
World Biodiesel Output Growth May Slow
Global biodiesel production rose sharply in 2006, but growth should slow in the coming year as new German taxes cut demand, analyst F.O. Licht said in a report on Wednesday.
Energy companies rethink palm oil as biofuel
Once, palm oil was seen as an ideal biofuel, a cheap alternative to petroleum that would fight global warming.But second thoughts are wracking the power industry. Can the fruit of the palm tree help save the planet — or contribute to its destruction?
Go West, oil hunters, but go mob-handed
HERE'S a good message for the domestic oil and gas industry: When looking for the goods in West Africa, it is better to hunt in a pack.So says Beach Petroleum, Baraka Petroleum, ARC Energy and Adelphi Energy who have formed an alliance - which also includes the unlisted energy consulting and engineering firm Advanced Well Technologies - to take on the better equipped majors in the rush to lock up land both on and offshore in West Africa.
Canada looks to double oil sands output
Greg Stringham, vice president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said they have two possible outlooks for the future of Canadian oil sands; both involve increased production, it's just a matter of how much."Conventional oil production is slowing but oil sands will grow," Stringham said at the Energy Information Administration 2007 Annual Energy Outlook in Washington Wednesday. Under ideal conditions, by 2015 production is predicted to be between 2.9 million and 3.5 million barrels a day and between 3.3 million and 4 million barrels per day by 2020. In a constrained scenario, the number is slightly less.
T. Boone Pickens was on CNBC this morning. It was the first time he has been there since January when oil was just a tad above $50. He said his collar was a little tight then because he had earlier predicted that oil would hit $70 before $50. It never closed below $50 but did have an interday low below that number.
He said the only spare capacity OPEC had was heavy, high sulfur, crude. And he said Saudi Arabia was porducing every barrel they could possibly produce and they were drilling like crazy just to stay where they are. (Or words to that effect as I do not remember his exact words.) He said 85 million barrels was the max we would produce. He never used the word "peak".
And his latest prediction: $75 before $55.
Pickens' video on CNBC is now available on their web site:
http://www.cnbc.com/
Ron Patterson
In search of Arab Heavy
FF is privy to gravity and sulfur content data for the above reservoirs. They are as follows (feel free to make this into a legible table and repost)
Field API Sulf Cont,%
Ghawar 34 1.7
Shaybah 42.4 .7
Safaniyah 28.0 2.84%
Abu Safah 30.0 2.7
Hawtah 49.3 .03
Khursanyah 31.0 2.5
Berri 30-38 1-2
Zuluf 30.60 2.3
Marjan 32.4 2.5
Qatif 30-36 1.6-2.5
Of the 10.35 MMBOPD shown in the above pie chart, which of the "heavy" oils above don't the Chinese want???
I guess Abquaiq is completely watered out, since it does not show up in this pie chart. Ghawar next?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=233014740&play=1
Pickens..does he lurk here? Sounds like WT, FF and SS. '.....Saudis are stuggling with old production, trying hard to bring on new production, lots of infill drilling, just to keep it about where it is'
Meat and potato quality here but for the CERAbrally blinded a bombshell!
('scuse C185 wrong spot)
c185 (great plane by the way)
Sometimes the combine Ghawar with abqaiq it seems.
I think everyone can agree with the following from the above chart and the last several day's discussions:
As goes Saudi Arabian oil production so goes the world,
As goes Ghawar- so goes Saudi Arabia,
As goes Ain Dar/Shedgum and Uthmaniyah - so goes Ghawar.
Are there any critics of the above conclusions ... who wish to speak up???
I would like to hear from the CERA experts about the above specifics... more than anything.
To dampen the hysteria a bit:
As you move up to larger and larger areas, the effects get smaller / slower. So if Ain Dar / Shedgum drop by 4%, SA would drop by less as a result of the AD/S drop - perhaps 2%, and the world would drop by even less (less than 1%). So your statement is probably directionally correct, but is misleading in its implications.
CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery
To Dampen your enthusiasm a bit:
You would be correct if it were only Ain Dar/Shedgum in decline. And you would be closer if Ani Dar/Shedgum were declining by only 4%. However ALL Saudi existing fields are declining by an average of 8%.
So your conclusion Hindmost, is totally misleading in its implications.
Ron Patterson
Ask me a question about the weather, and I talk about exports.
The one year increase in domestic Saudi consumption was 360,000 bpd to 2.0 mbpd (Total Liquids, EIA), from 2004 to 2005, while their current crude oil production is down about 1.1 mbpd from 2005 to early 2007. It currently takes 100% of the Total Liquids production of the 14th largest oil producer in the world, Brazil, to meet domestic Saudi consumption.
Try an exponential increase in domestic consumption against an exponential decline in production. What you get in a worst case scenario is something like the UK, which went from probably peak exports of one mbpd in 1999 to a net importer in 2005, so they probably crossed the zero line in 2004. Think of it--maximum exports to zero net exports in about five years.
We won't see that in Saudi Arabia, but if, as I suspect, Russian production starts falling later this year or next year, IMO we could easily see a 50% drop in net oil exports by the top 10 net oil exporters within five years.
Apparently, the Nimitz battle group is headed for the Persian Gulf. Pretty soon, US warships are going to start running into each other in the gulf.
The number of ships underway does not appear unusually large but the number of aircraft carriers in the North Arabian sea is unusual. I am not aware of any list of naval ships on deployment or deployment locations. The only way to derive this information would be to watch the above linked page daily and see who drops off the list after being underway. However, you'd also have to try to ascertain whether a ship was underway to or from port at any given time.
If anyone is aware of any additional sources of information about Naval ship movement, I'd be interested in seeing those.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
According to this page the Nimitz is scheduled to relieve the Esienhower in the Gulf this March and has been for some time.
Xyleth,
Your link is empty. I double checked the raw HTML and the link is empty. Could you please repost whatever link you intended?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
very odd. how about this ?
Thanks! That works.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Link for aircraft carrier locations - don't know how accurate
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/gonavy/atsugi/gonavy604.html
Maybe a surprise land invasion from Oman's Musandam Peninsula, walking across a floating bridge of US Navy ships? ;-)
The time for games is over?!
For a list of ships and aircraft carrier strike groups, see:
Massive Deployment of Naval Power directed against Iran
"we could easily see a 50% drop in net oil exports by the top 10 net oil exporters within five years". You have said this a number of times, wt, but what approximate % reduction in TOTAL oil on the open market would that equate to? Presume it's much less than 50%, maybe 25%? Even the latter would be pretty devastating.
Fractional Flow
M.K.Horn in his 2004 update of the Giant Oil fields (932 Oil and Gas Fields with original oil in place of more than 500 mmbls or 3 Tcf of gas) specifically gave Ghawar as 79322 BBOE depleted with 17766 BBOE remaining out of a total URR of 97 BBoe. This would put it about 86% depleted now.
He gave a total of just under 900 BBOE for the whole Arabian Plate
I have given Stuart a number of links on this and hope he does a post on it
Love my 185 FF. Will continue flying so long as 100LL is available. Not much price elasticity for my demand. Paying $3.92 per gallon now. Someday maybe Ghawar will be like the Arbuckle, 99.9% water and lots of downhole pumps. I figure they run away from the water in Ghawar because they can't handle it on the surface and the well won't flow with much more than 70% water. They will need pumps--big downhole ones and lots of surface dewater/desalter. To get 1 million b/d out of Ain Dar/shedgum or uthmaniya they may need to handle and reinject 100 to 200 million b/d of water. The numbers become oulandish. They will need armies of service workers, and where will they come from?
rebuilding pumps, servicing wells, work-overs, etc, etc,
Getting to 9 million b/d with wells that flow 10,000 b/d of oil is one thing, but 10,000b/d of fluid with 99% salt water that corrodes everything--that is anothert animal altogether.
i dont think pumping is a real option (in general). transmitting that much power downhole (electrical submersible or hydraulic pumps) presents some real challenges. rod pumps are probably out of the question. the saudi's have managed their reservoirs to avoid pumping. gas lift is, imo, more likely. gas lift requires a fairly high reservoir pressure. gas lift and water handling infastructure would be massive.
I have a 1973 Cherokee 235 Charger Regular Unleaded.
Back to the original post for you oilfield guys... If these are the fields in production in 2004 and SA has 1.5 MMBOPD shut-in because it is too heavy, where is it??
Could be Munifa (sp Manifa?). If I recall correctly, that's heavy, and also happens to be essentially unsellable due to high vanadium content. I admit that's stretching the description "too heavy". But if the intent of the description is that the oil is undesirable, Manifa fits.
Edited to add:
Oops - I was under the impression that Manifa was ready to produce crude (awaiting only completion of specialized refineries to handle the oil) but some quick checks say that's probably not true, because there's field development in parallel with refinery building.
Besides which, it would have been imprudent to develop the field with no feasible market, so my assumption that it had been developed was unrealistic.
Considering the politicians are (rightly) apprehensive about Nukes for northern Alberta... and Natural Gas from McKenzie seems to be in some doubt.
How the heck is that production going to work if, by 2010, Domestic NG supplies are going to be in serious decline.
One LNG terminal in Kitimat, BC isn't going to do it.
and they are expecting gas for this new 400 megawatt power station. Who is going to be short motorists or homeowners?
http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2005/08/08/focus4.html
http://www.springerlink.com/content/02648wu132m07804/
New Analysis of a Rat Feeding Study with a Genetically Modified Maize
Reveals Signs of Hepatorenal Toxicity
Journal Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology
Publisher Springer New York
ISSN 0090-4341 (Print) 1432-0703 (Online)
DOI 10.1007/s00244-006-0149-5
SpringerLink Date Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Abstract: Health risk assessment of genetically modified organisms
(GMOs) cultivated for food or feed is under debate throughout the
world, and very little data have been published on mid- or long-term
toxicological studies with mammals. One of these studies performed
under the responsibility of Monsanto Company with a transgenic corn
MON863 has been subjected to questions from regulatory reviewers in
Europe, where it was finally approved in 2005. This necessitated a
new assessment of kidney pathological findings, and the results
remained controversial. An Appeal Court action in Germany (Munster)
allowed public access in June 2005 to all the crude data from this
90-day rat-feeding study. We independently re-analyzed these data.
Appropriate statistics were added, such as a multivariate analysis of
the growth curves, and for biochemical parameters comparisons between
GMO-treated rats and the controls fed with an equivalent normal diet,
and separately with six reference diets with different compositions.
We observed that after the consumption of MON863, rats showed slight
but dose-related significant variations in growth for both sexes,
resulting in 3.3% decrease in weight for males and 3.7% increase for
females. Chemistry measurements reveal signs of hepatorenal toxicity,
marked also by differential sensitivities in males and females.
Triglycerides increased by 24.0% in females (either at week 14, dose
11% or at week 5, dose 33%, respectively); urine phosphorus and
sodium excretions diminished in males by 31.5% (week 14, dose 33%)
for the most important results significantly linked to the treatment
in comparison to seven diets tested. Longer experiments are essential
in order to indicate the real nature and extent of the possible
pathology; with the present data it cannot be concluded that GM corn
MON863 is a safe product.
This is probably my biggest gripe with the Clinton Administration and Dan Glickman as Secretary of Agriculture. The full speed ahead of GMO's without any thought to the consequence of drift, organic contamination, seed source monopoly, what were they thinking? Paid lobbies will be the death of us.
If the plant itself is toxic? Lets make "corn" that you can over spray with roundup to kill the weeds in the cornfield. Roundup is a translocated herbicide so will it be in the the leaf, root, cob, the kernal?
Round up in your childrens corn flakes?
Next we will need GM people to eat this stuff.
"Next we will need GM people to eat this stuff."
Yes, I believe that's the general idea.
:-(
Not to worry. The ethanol folks will make sure there's not much left for eating. Also on CNBC today; there is record corn planting which is crowding out soybean planting. CNBC said there's lots of money to be made here and, of course, that's all that's really important.
Here in the midsouth they have been planting for a weel or two already.Its been a very very warm spring and the rains have been just right so far in my region.
Its going to be one hell of a year. The only thing looming on the horizon is possibly very hot weather when the pollen is falling. High temps kill the pollen.
I cannot believe that we are running air conditioners and having 85+ temps in the 3rd week of March!!!!
What I hear is that corn is down as well as beans due to all the traders fussing with oil futures instead of crop futures. Overhead listening to a commodity consultant the other day. Fact is that it appears to be changing daily.
All quiet now about new ethanol plants .. Perhaps its already a forgone conclusion that they are in the works. If it folds though and the farmers with huge input costs see a very down corn market,,,then that could spell trouble.
Land rent is up. Fertilizer is way up and nh3 is bouncing around $500 I am told. Seed costs are always high and right now some is in short supply. Like I said..going to be a hell of a year out here.
Soybean planting time comes after the wheat is harvested. Or thereabouts. Too early but if all the land is in corn..then you only get to use what is there after the wheat harvest.
So one clue is to look at the size of planted winter wheat acreage.
Here is the CBOT page on midseason outlook:
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,997+46995,00.html
Farmers are paid a premium for non-GMO corn,however the load has to be tested at the graneries. Last year I hauled some that failed the test.Not much thought because only a few were planting and harvesting non-GMO I think. By and large GMO is becoming far more prevalent...again my opinion based on not having to state that I was hauling non-GMO, which you have to do.
I assume drift was the culprit. Meaning that it was mingling with the GMO in the same areas and not due to combining the two by mistake and putting both in the same truck load.
I could be wrong on this.
I can think of no better place to put this corn than in a gas tank.
AFAIK there is no GMO white corn. To me white corn is preferable to yellow so thats primarily what I consume.
GM corn found in white corn products
04/07/2001 - The genetically modified yellow corn StarLink, made by the Franco-German pharmaceutical group Aventis, and whose presence in food products last fall resulted in widespread recalls, has been found for the first time in a white corn product, The Washington Post reported on July 3