DrumBeat: April 21, 2007

Poll: Most Americans feel gas price pain - But only 1 in 5 says prices causing severe hardships.

Phil Flynn, senior oil analyst for Aleron, found the number of those suffering hardships surprisingly low, telling CNN that "the low number explains why gas demand is at a record high, despite high prices. Because for the vast majority of people, it isn't a hardship for them."

Get moving on an energy plan

The national labs have used scientific collaborations to attack a variety of extremely complex problems. Such an organization, tasked with considering the energy situation from the top down, could provide a nonpolitical, realistic plan for dealing with our current energy crisis.


James Hanson: Why We Can't Wait

The Energy Department says that we're going to continue to put more and more CO2 in the atmosphere each year--not just additional CO2 but more than we put in the year before. If we do follow that path, even for another ten years, it guarantees that we will have dramatic climate changes that produce what I would call a different planet--one without sea ice in the Arctic; with worldwide, repeated coastal tragedies associated with storms and a continuously rising sea level; and with regional disruptions due to freshwater shortages and shifting climatic zones.

I've arrived at five recommendations for what should be done to address the problem. If Congress were to follow these recommendations, we could solve the problem. Interestingly, this is not a gloom-and-doom story. In fact, the things we need to do have many other benefits in terms of our economy, our national security, our energy independence and preserving the environment--preserving creation.


Hybrid vehicles will impact industry

The U.S. military burns as much oil in six days as all of Canada does in a year. They’re burning more than 400,000 barrels every day, and they’re worried. It’s no wonder their planners are developing of hybrid diesel-electric armoured vehicles, and they have enlisted the military in Europe and Scandinavia to work with them.


Pound by Pound, Dollar for Dollar, The Complicated Equation for Going Green

Going green is the new black in 2007. Advice abounds on how to cut your carbon dioxide output and do your part in the battle against global warming. But how much does a person have to spend to go green--and what kind of environmental impact would that spending actually have?


'Green' energy boom in Germany

Great export numbers and thousands of new jobs -- Germany is expecting a 'green' economic boom sparked by its renewable energy sector.


Clean car seeks green (wealthy) driver

Rules forcing carmakers to build greener vehicles will be of no use unless measures are taken to convince consumers to buy them.


Italy Energy Demand Seen up 2% in 2007

Italian demand for oil, gas and other primary energy sources is expected to rise some 2 percent this year and will grow at least until 2020, but consumption should become more efficient, Unione Petrolifera (UP) said.


World's 'largest renewable energy city'

A farm of underwater tidally-driven turbines in New York's East River could make the city the world's largest in the renewable energy stakes.


Go slow on investing in biofuel companies, conference attendees say

The world is on the cusp of an energy revolution that could bring prosperity across the Americas and beyond. But how the revolution will play out remains unclear, and investors stand to lose plenty by betting on the wrong fuels or technologies, panelists said Thursday at a South Florida conference on Latin America.


China vs. Earth

The message is clear: Shanghai under water, Tibetan glaciers disappearing, crop yields in precipitous decline, epidemics flaring. These are just some of the dire consequences that Chinese scientists predict for their country this century if current climate change is not addressed. Yet China's leaders pay about as much attention to the issue as does George W. Bush.


Receding Horizons

[Robert Rapier] refers to this phenomenon as the “Law of Receding Horizons.”

I am grateful to whoever gets the credit for that little coinage, because I’ve been barking up that tree without a good name for the concept for a while now, and it’s an apt description of what I’ve been seeing in the energy press lately: receding horizons.


Analysis: New markets for carbon dioxide

Developing new markets for carbon will be vital to make coal to liquids and coal gasification economically competitive.


Fossil fuel feast to deliver us an even drier future

THE Murray-Darling Basin’s water crisis has reignited the debate about whether Australia’s drought is the result of global warming.

For John Howard and his Government, the jury is still out.


New Nationalization Contracts to Boost Bolivia's Coffers by $300M

The Bolivian Congress on Thursday unanimously approved 44 contracts that the government signed with 12 foreign oil companies in the framework of the country's energy nationalization policy, according to reports from La Paz.


The Ultimate System: Free Mass Transit and Congestion Pricing

WABC's John Gambling spoke with Michael Bloomberg this morning. In anticipation of the Mayor's Earth Day speech, they discussed everything from congestion charging to light bulbs. Below are some highlights from their conversation; you can download to the entire show here.


Tram backers approach Troutdale

With gasoline prices currently stuck above $3 a gallon, global warming concerns generating headlines and the Portland-metro area gripped in gridlock that only gets worse, alternative transportation methods continue to inch toward the mainstream.

But car-pooling, driving a hybrid and taking the bus all pale in comparison to Ben Missler’s 20-year renewable energy vision of building an $800 billion network of trams powered by wind and the sun across America.


More Where That Came From

Consulting group IHS confirmed as much Wednesday, when it announced that Iraq potentially holds another 100 billion barrels of oil in its western desert. That region, IHS explains, has been "substantially underexplored" because Iraq has been swimming in an oil surplus.

How many more regions are there across the globe that have been underexplored for the same reason? Peak-oil theorists have some explaining to do.


Peak Oil Passnotes: Can Oil Go to $80 Again? Why Not?

There was a 4.4 million barrel draw in gasoline inventories on the eastern seaboard and in the U.S. as a whole – the only place that really matters – gasoline rose on average by 7.4 cents per gallon, to reach a tidy $2.87 per gallon.

That means that gasoline is up over 70 cents since the start of the year and year on year we are looking at around an 11.5 per cent rise.


'Increasing natural gas consumption, Iran crisis'

The managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) Reza Kassaeizadeh warned that if the current trend in the natural gas consumption continues, the country will certainly face a crisis in the future, MNA reported.


Schlumberger profit soars 63%

Schlumberger, the world's largest oil-field-services provider, said its first-quarter profit rose 63 percent to a record as oil and natural gas producers ramped up spending on exploration.


Shell clings to China refinery investment hope

Oil major Royal Dutch Shell is working hard to gain a foothold in China's refining sector after hopes for taking a share in a new CNOOC refinery was dashed, a top company executive said on Friday.


Oh, That Crisis

I find it odd that the two most popular groups of gloom-and-doomers are diametrically opposed about the cause: the GW-ers say things are about to get very bad because we have too much oil to burn -- while the PO-ers say things are going to get very, very bad because we don't have enough.


Environment advocates urge action on climate change

Kunstler said that the first order of business should be the restoration of the passenger rail system. "No other action would have such an immediate effect on our oil crisis."


This island Earth - As ecological anxiety increases, the search for radical solutions begins

On a freezing night last November, a crush of concerned citizens packed into the General Store Café in Pittsboro for a special screening by Chatham County documentarians Tim Bennett and Sally Erickson. What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire, a bleak, relentless, ecological horror film, played to a rapt house. While most Americans shrug off global warming as somebody else's problem, at this film's conclusion the viewers sat in a circle to discuss the inconvenient truths it raised. If Bennett and Erickson were recruiting fellow foot soldiers in the battle for our planet's future, we were a Coalition of the Willing. But after the show the practical obstacles to saving the planet were all too clear: We all strapped ourselves to thousands of pounds of steel, fired up noxious internal combustion engines, and drove off into the night.


The Economic Impact of Renewable Energy

LaidLaw Energy Group, a New York-based developer of independent renewable power plants, has proposed turning the Fraser Paper Mill into a 50 megawatt (MW) capacity biomass electrical generation facility that will utilize woodchips. Because the mill's infrastructure is well suited for developing a power plant, it will be easier and cheaper for the company to construct the facility.


In search of fuel's holy grail

Biochemist Kendall Pye has devoted his long career to the modern equivalent of the alchemist's dream: a commercially viable process for transforming forest wastes into cellulosic ethanol that could replace gasoline.


Fischler not optimistic on biofuel opportunities

FORMER EU Agriculture Commissioner Franz Fischler was less than optimistic about opportunities for the biofuel industry in Europe.

Not only was Europe less than competitive in raw material price terms with soya from South America or palm oil from South East Asia, but the land requirement for alternatives in Europe was too high, he suggested at the Agricultural Engineers’ Association annual conference this week.


Sands are shifting for oil supply
Expert says we should be ready for big jump in price

Oil production worldwide peaked months ago, but figures and prices don't reflect that yet because the production of liquids stripped from natural gas has been filling the gap, [Henry Groppe] said.

But that potential is peaking, too, which means that "in several years" the world will enter a new era of higher prices.

"The only question is how high will prices have to go before there is a decline in usage?" he said.


London oil exchange to sell Middle East heavy crude

London's Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) oil market said Thursday it would launch a new crude oil contract next month for sour crude from the Middle East.

The new heavy crude contract will be priced in US dollars and sold alongside London's Brent North Sea crude and New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude, the exchange said in a statement.


Growing Unrest Posing a Threat to Nigerian Oil

There are few safe places left for oil companies in the Niger Delta, the epicenter of this country’s petroleum industry.

Armed rebel gangs have blown up pipelines, disabled pumping stations, and kidnapped over 150 foreign oil workers in the last year. Companies now confine employees to heavily fortified compounds, allowing them to travel only by armored car or helicopter.

One company has fitted bathrooms with steel bolts to turn them into “panic” rooms, if needed. Another has coated the pylons of a giant oil-production platform 80 miles offshore with waterproof grease to prevent attackers from climbing the rig.


Tanker fails to explode near Nigerian election HQ

A petrol tanker laden with gas detonators heading towards Nigeria's electoral headquarters stopped short of its target and failed to explode on Saturday, hours before voting was due to start in presidential elections.


Bolivia retakes natural gas pipeline

The military retook control of a natural gas pipeline to Argentina after days of violent protests at gas installations in southern Bolivia, the government said late Friday.


Fueling the Debate: Ethanol vs. Biodiesel

This past week offered a perfect synopsis of the continuing debate over whether ethanol or biodiesel is the preferred biofuel of the future. Determining which fuel is better, though, is about as helpful as determining whether running or swimming is the healthier exercise option -- since both, of course, are beneficial. Both ethanol and biodiesel will reduce our reliance on traditional fossil fuels and will help cut down on harmful emissions. So how do they differ, and what really are the benefits of each?


Biobutanol Performance Similar to Unleaded Gasoline, According to New Fuel Testing

New fuel testing results shared today by DuPont and BP indicate that biobutanol has proven to perform similarly to unleaded gasoline on key parameters, based on ongoing laboratory-based engine testing and limited fleet testing.


Annan: Climate change threat to humanity

The greatest threat facing humanity is climate change, former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Friday, and praised a Norwegian initiative to reduce the country's net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.


Warming and Global Security

People who give short shrift to environmental matters pay attention when national security becomes part of the conversation. So the debate over global warming took a useful turn this week as diplomats and retired military officers drew persuasive connections between climate change and the very real potential for regional upheavals.


Powerful policy group toughens U.S. emissions plan

The National Commission on Energy Policy -- a nonpartisan organization that includes representatives from industry, government, labor, environmental activism and academia -- revised a plan first issued in 2004 that was used as the model for some climate change proposals in Congress.

"The truth is that the urgency has increased, not just on climate change but on oil security," said panel communications director Paul Bledsoe, explaining the need for updating.

Saudi Arabia Rail Plans

The Saudi Railway Organization is prepared for a radical change in its services after a 50- year absence of new railway construction in the country. The SRO has initiated a large expansion of the rail network all over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is planned to upgrade and significantly expand the existing railway network by implementing separate, but interconnected, new railway projects.

Saudi Arabia is bound for ambitious and mega plans for its railroad network:

The North-South Railway Project

This will link Riyadh-Buraydah-Hail-Qurayyat as well as the mines at Al Jalamid and Az Zabirah to Ras AzZawr on the Arabian Gulf for a total distance of 2,400 km. The estimated cost of the project is $ 3 to 4 billion, and the client is the Public Investment Fund (PIF). This line is primarily intended to transport bauxite and phosphate ores from the north and northeast of Saudi Arabia to processing facilities on the Arabian Gulf coast. The project will also provide passenger and general freight services to various towns and cities in the region.

Saudi Landbridge Project

This project includes the construction of an overland bridge linking Dammam and Jeddah through the industrial cities of Jubail and Riyadh. This line will link the Red Sea with the Arabian Gulf. The overland bridge is the cornerstone of the Railway Expansion Program, to be implemented on the basis of a Build Operate Transfer (BOT) concession. A consortium comprising UBS Investment Bank, The National Commercial Bank and SNCF International has been selected by Saudi Railways Organization ("SRO") to provide Financial and Technical Advisory Services for the project.

Makkah-Madinah Rail Link Project (MMRL)

The purpose of the MMRL project is to cater to the requirements of passengers, predominantly religious pilgrims and commuters wishing to travel between Makkah, Jeddah and Madinah. The project will consist of a high-speed line linking the three cities with six new stations. The Saudi Government will grant concessions to the private sector for the construction and operation of the MMRL via a Design, Build, Operate and Transfer ("DBOT") contract. The estimated cost of the project is $4 billion.

Riyadh Metro

The project is still in the planning phase and will entail investments of up to $2 billion. The Supreme Commission for the Development of Riyadh City (ARD) proposed this project to reduce traffic congestion in the capital and handles the future public transportation needs of the city. The proposed metro system will include two primary routes: the first route will link Northern and the Southern parts of the city, while the second route will link the East of the capital with the West.

Madinah Monorail Project

Plans have been set to establish an elevated electric train project in Medina to facilitate mass transit of pilgrims and visitors between the Prophet’s Mosque, the Quba Mosque and the Shuhada area. The project is designed to transport 20,000 passengers an hour.

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They signed a $1.9 billion contract to start work on a 1,000+ mile North-South rail line on April 4, 2007. This will carry 2 million pax/year plus phosphate & bauxite (Saudi is developing mineral resources other than oil).

This should have a small, but positive, impact on Export Land domestic oil consumption.

Venezuala is also investing heavily in new rail projects.

Do they know something the US does not ?

Best Hopes,

Alan

Hummm, 3 to 4 billion for 2400 km of new rail? The USA based DM&E has been trying for about 8 years now to upgrade a couple hundred miles of its track and put in a couple hundred more miles of new track - its billed as the largest new rail construction project in the USA since WWII (?) - and they are getting blocked at every turn. Total cost estimated is over 6 billion for well under 1000 miles (1600 km) of track. The Saudis will have to import the steel rail, wood ties - or set up a factory locally to make concrete ties, obtain large amounts of rock ballast, new locomotive, freight cars, passenger cars, build marshalling yards, stations, etc....
My guess is more like 30 to 40 billion minimum?
For more info on the efforts for DM&E to expand go to:
http://www.dmerail.com/PRB%20Project.html
Also Google DM&E Project to find out the opponents side of the story.
Major rail upgrades and expansion in the USA will take a LONG time if the DM&E project is any indication. From regulatory roadblocks, local NIMBY efforts, financial constraints, etc....
I tried to convince DM&E to go electric traction engines with overhead catanary power and they agreed it would be cheaper to operate that way, but they said they would not do it because it "would be more difficult to interface with the other non-electrified rail lines"
You have a long hard uphill battle for electrification of rail service in the USA - Until the price of diesel fuel goes through the roof - And it will be a bit too late by then?

Jon Kutz
Tinkerer and Dreamer

SNCF International

Of course the French got this contract.

Alan, I thank you very much for gathering all this rail information constantly. It clearly shows a "follow the money" pattern to it.

Yes, I would say that it strongly appears that KSA knows something that we don't (or perhaps only suspect circumstantially).

That old saying - "The bigger they are, the harder they fall" - probably is an apt warning to the United States right now.

Best wishes to you in your efforts to save New Orleans. I don't think we're going to save the USA.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

So modify that Saudi saying just a bit

My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a train. And, his grandson will ride a camel.

Do you know if they are going to be electric?

As someone wondered aloud yesterday...is there nuclear in the future for KSA?

I know they have been rumbling about needing nuclear weapons if Iran gets them.

The monorail, the Metro and the Mecca-Medina rail will be electric. The Landbridge and the North-South line will be diesel (and largely single track, but engineered for easy double tracking).

Alan

A map of current, authorized and future plans.

http://www.saudirailways.org/english/e_default.htm

Best Hopes for Energy Efficiency in Saudi Arabis (that much more for our SUVs >:-P

Alan

Proposal to TOD editors and community:

Select a willing and qualified PO Education Editor to develop curricula for PO education to be used by TOD members in their various settings. This initiative would be a community effort.

What do you think?

Good thought, Yosemite Sam. The site does offer links and intro articles to click on already.

I gave a presentation to groups of 7th and 6th grade students some time ago, and will give three presentations to 3rd and 4th graders in the next couple of weeks.

These presentations include the topics of peak oil, global climate change, and resource wars. The focus is on what we can do to make things better here and now for the future: biking and walking, gardeneing, building community, building awareness in our neighborhoods. It is not "gloom and doom" at all for the kids. I will really focus on the necessity and the fun of positive change.

The physical focus of my presentations will be the pedicab, cargo trike, and trailer. We will do math about how much 5 student weigh, and how much certain cars weigh, and how much bikes and trikes weigh. We will do pro/com worksheets on use of various vehicles and transportation modes. I will give rides and we will talk about enegy and materials needed to make, operate, and scrap or recycle various vehicles.

We will touch on rail and various other things. The kids will take this back to their classroom to go in directions they and their techers want to go. We (teachers and parents)also take the 3rd and 4th graders on an annual overnight at a local campground to study nature -- ponds and such -- close up. That's a separate thing, but it keeps conversations going about the environment.

I've written one locally published editorial, and am also writing more with a focus on environment and "The Carbon Twins."

My biggest challenge is boiling info down to bite-sized nuggets, and being real while not losing my listeners or readers by overwhelming them with scary information.

Perhaps a bigger challenge is overcoming my own bitterness at the blindness and "intentional ignorance" so cultivated in our (USA) culture, at least. Wow, is that a big challenge.

Hi Beggar,

Thanks for responding. A quite a few of us her at TOD have done what you have done. I have not done it for seventh graders--you are a hero! How did it go?

When I put together a couple of presentations, I had to work pretty hard and the results were not that great. My thinking is that the truly gifted could work on this area. I would like to put in my two cents worth.

The results might well be a list of FAQ's, talking points, Power Point presentations for different age and educational levels.

There certainly are some nice links here, but I think we could do better.

Regarding this:

Perhaps a bigger challenge is overcoming my own bitterness at the blindness and "intentional ignorance" so cultivated in our (USA) culture, at least. Wow, is that a big challenge.

I think that we have to get the word out. At some point, it will hit critical mass, and people will convert.

Thanks again for your thoughts.

YS -- well, the 7th and 8th graders showed remarkable awareness of what a resource war is. When asked what a resource war is, the response was: "Doh! Oil! Iraq!"

They also showed little interest in military service in the Middle East or anywhere else for that matter.

The students were very interested in understanding the energy costs of agriculture, fast food, heating and cooling houses, and getting around.

Some imagined the future at first as being more of the same, only "more and cooler stuff" and "bigger and cooler malls." But after a bit of talk these students began to question their Disneyesque technomagical thinking. some students were already very concerned about the future, but many had obviously had no encouragement to think about it from home.

School science teacher was able to integrate this into his "humans and energy" and environmental curriculum. He had the students look up websites like Energybulletin and the like as part of their online research.

I recently introduced the "renewable energy" segment of the science curriculum for 8th graders in a local middle school. I was talking mostly about emergy - embedded energy; with me was someone from a local green store taking a more philosophical angle and two from Portland Maine's WinterCache project, which aims to provide locally grown food through the winter discussing compost and the 1500 mile bite.

I had a bunch of soda cans and lunch food - the idea being to change the way the students looked at lunch. A few of the kids ripped right through the embedded energy concept - even including the energy required to support the marketing department. Most had not a clue. I'd want to modify that presentation to make the benefits more widespread.

Even though the written guidelines for this segment include "why our economy doesn't use this now", we were advised to stay away from that.

cfm in Gray, ME

PO Education Editor? Some thoughts:

1. I'm not sure that The Oil Drum is the right place to develop educational materials. The thrust of the site is more technical. Engineers and high tech professionals usually aren't the best people to explain a subject in simple terms. I'll bet the best materials will come from teachers and curriculum developers rather than technically oriented people.

2. Many other sites that have developed explanatory material. Rather than re-invent the wheel, it would be more efficient to search the web for existing presentations. Some of the best seem to be done by city planners. And of course, there are the published books like Heinberg and Deffeyes - good for secondary and college level.

Bryn Davidson at RAO-D Citworks has done attractive and intuitive presentations, which can be accessed from
http://dynamiccities.squarespace.com/home/
More stuff:
http://e-design.squarespace.com/peak-oil-planning/
http://e-design.squarespace.com/pop-files/

Another presentation I like was by Tim Moerman, given at the Atlantic Planners’ Institute Annual Conference
Ten Principles of Post Oil-Peak Planning (PDF)

3. With volunteer sites like The Oil Drum, there are usually 10 times as many good ideas as there are willing hands to execute the ideas. The good news is that if you want a project to happen and are willing to do some of the work, there is a place for it to happen. It might be at The Oil Drum, or it might be elsewhere.

Bart
Energy Bulletin

Many thanks, Bart.

Just remembered...

1. Counter-proposal: what about a site for teachers and educators to share their material?

2. One of the Energy Bulletin co-editors wrote The Peak Oil Primer which has been widely circulated. Might perform the same function as FAQs. There are similar peak oil summaries elsewhere on the Web.

3. On the light side, here's a link to cartoon presentations about peak oil, oil and alternative energy.

http://www.no19bus.org.uk/5_Minute_Tour.htm

The author, Stephen Hamilton-Bergin, has written no 19 bus, a science fiction novel which "begins in 2070 and gently gives the reader a hint of what the world has gone through in the past seventy years. It makes some startling short term predictions. How accurate will they be? Published in 10 volumes."

He has also published the non-fiction book The Truth about the War and Oil.

Bart
Energy Bulletin

bart, Thanks for your thoughts and links. I hadn't seen the PO primer before.

1. Counter-proposal: what about a site for teachers and educators to share their material?

I agree. Doesn't look like there is much interest though.

Wish those cartoons were bigger. They're nearly impossible to read on my monitor.

So far, my favorite peak oil intro for newbies is Wolf At the Door.

Agree that TOD might not be the best place for setting up peak oil outreach. We are, to be blunt, geeks. A lot of us are so geeky we don't even know how geeky we are. ;-)

Select a willing and qualified PO Education Editor to develop curricula for PO education to be used by TOD members in their various settings. This initiative would be a community effort.

It's been done. David DuByne, an English teacher in Thailand, wrote an English as Second Language book that is a great curriculum for educating people about oil depletion, bio-crops, and sustainability. He has been working on it for a while, and just e-mailed me that it was finished. It is very well-done.

http://www.daveseslbiofuel.com/

Paris launches Massive Rental Bicycle Program

By the end of the year, organizers and city officials say, there should be 20,600 bikes at 1,450 stations -- or about one station every 250 yards across the entire city.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/23/AR200703...

Best Hopes for Non-Oil Transportation,

Alan

One hardly even needs a bicycle in central Paris - the Metro efficiently takes one anywhere, within a walk of just a few blocks. There are always taxi if the weather is bad or the walk is difficult. Perhaps in the outlying areas this system would be more useful.

The main trouble with bicycles is that they are miserable to use when it is rainy or cold, and dangerous when there is snow or ice on the ground. We still haven't really worked out how to let bicycles safely share urban streets with motor vehicles. It is also unrealistic to expect the elderly and infirm to use them.

The system I would really like to see set up is a network of short-term rental Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs). These COULD be used by everyone, in all weather conditions. The rental stations also provide a solution to the recharging problem. Install PV pannels at each station to power the rechargers and you really have a great system. I would venture to add that establishing such a system may be one of the key components that could help turn urban mass transit systems into a real success, especially given the lower densities of most US cities.

The Paris program is modeled after Lyon, operating since 2005. From the article:

"It has completely transformed the landscape of Lyon -- everywhere you see people on the bikes," said Jean-Louis Touraine, the city's deputy mayor. The program was meant "not just to modify the equilibrium between the modes of transportation and reduce air pollution, but also to modify the image of the city and to have a city where humans occupy a larger space."

You would NOT get that benefit from a hypothetical Rent-a-NEV.

Bicycles are operating today. The economics and maintenance seem to work out well enough. They are lower energy than NEVs (Americans MUST inclose themselves in isolated shells ??), much lower capital costs, refueling is not an issue, bike maintenance is easier than NEV maintenance AND it is operating today !

I can see all types of rent-a-vehicle operating in cities of the future (bicycles, NEVs, gasoline pickups, Segways) but the bicycle is an excellent, nay superb, one !

If one cannot or does not want to rent a bicycle, one can walk/drive right past the bicycle rental stand, so your objections have no validity.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Of course Americans need to be enclosed - how else would they be able to cut themselves off from the world around them? After all, they live in a hideously ugly society.

This hapring point of Kunstler's is easy enough to ridicule - his last eyesore of the month was just mean-spirited and petty - but it is worth considering.

It also explains, in part, why Americans are so much less concerned about climate change - they don't actually experience much climate anyways. (Other reasons are that weather is truly extreme in North America, and the fact that most Americans don't seem to spend their entire lives in one area anyways, meaning that longer term changes don't register.)

After all, when riding a bicycle, it could be cold, or wet, or hot, or windy. Where most people in Germany I know think this is called 'normal,' most Americans seem to think this is a problem, best solved by cranking up the A/C and the tunes.

And yes, I know it gets real cold, and real wet, and real hot, and real windy in the U.S. - just not most of the time, in most places.

But any excuse in a storm, I guess.

After all, they live in a hideously ugly society

This Saturday morning, as I walked to the neighborhood grocery store, I took the 8 block route (it is 2.5 blocks away) since it was such a lovely day and I have not walked some streets in over a month ! (I took the short route home with a gallon of orange juice, avocado & local strawberries in hand).

Stopped and helped an acquantince with a sofa (a 3rd set of hands makes it MUCH easier).

It is a joy to enjoy the diversity of architecture, colors and plantings along the way and say "Good Morning" to my neighbors.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Well, a lot of people find modern German cities (not even including the ones in the former DDR) hideously ugly.

And as I noted in the paragraph, below, this is really much more a Kunstlerian point than my own.

What disturbs me deeply since Reagan is the intense privatization of what was formerly public space. Of course Kunstler notes this too, but this is one way Germany is much different than the U.S.

In Germany, there are a large number of open spaces in cities and towns, expressly for public use - the way the World Cup was handled was truly fascinating.

And the concept of trespassing in the countryside doesn't exist in any form within an American framework (though Virginia, for one, has a fair approximation in some ways) - essentially, you can walk anywhere you wish, without permission. Of course, you can't just enter someone's enclosed space, like a house or barn, and fences are worth paying attention to, but if there is a couple of acre pasture which is fenced in, the farmer is essentially required to provide a gate that people can open to cross that pasture - at their own risk, of course.

Concepts like these are like not really imaginable in America. And the reverse, that it is essentially illegal to go anywhere in America without trespassing is not imaginable for Germans.

The world is much bigger than America, and America is much bigger than Kunstler's suburbia. Easy enough to understand, beyond the ability for any single person to master. We are just small elements in a vast tapestry, which we will never be able to see completely.

Hop on a bicycle and head out on pretty much any American road and you'll find yourself in territory hostile to life.

Between the 4,000 pound missiles screaming past being piloted with sheer luck by constantly distracted or angry drivers, and being made to feel like a criminal if you stop anywhere to catch your breath/eat/drink/etc...it's no wonder people don't bicycle.

One reason New Orleans (San Francisco, maybe NY too) are thought of as foreign countries in the popular imagination is that they are physically attractive.

I think NYC earns that through the incredible variety of people living there - it is one of the few places in the U.S. that is thoroughly aware that the U.S. is not the center of the world.

Mainly because New Yawkers think NYC is, but then, everyone has their blindspots.

It would be fun if you could provide some pictures. Or how about a little video entitled, "Alan's walk to the store and back".

Best hopes for multimedia posts from Alan.

I could take some still photos (cell phone is only movie camera I have).

Couple of questions; do the editors approve ?

And should I include just the pretty, nice views or all of it (we have a horrid 1960s apartment building spoiling the neighborhood) and a burned out block from Katrina (now cleared) ?

How many photos ?

Best Hopes,

Alan

Hi Alan,

Whichever you want (if the editors approve.) (In any case, I can't imagine them not approving, given other photos posted here.)

Of course Americans need to be enclosed - how else would they be able to cut themselves off from the world around them? After all, they live in a hideously ugly society.

Very true, expat. Of course there are exceptions but they are largely that - exceptions. The norm within the USA is a hideously ugly way of life that really gets me down. Strolling through parts of old town Alexandria when I lived in the Washington, DC area was a grand thing.

Two years ago while back east I took a drive through the town where I grew up. Most of the businesses in that small town of 5000 are now offices for doctors and lawyers. About the only good thing was that the courthouse, built in the early 19th century, had been sandblasted and no longer was a dingy grey color but a magnificent brown sandstone. The rest of the buildings were simple 2 to 4 story brick but were between 70 and 150 years old, excepting the corner small convenience grocery store which was built about 45 years ago when I was a child and after the original building had suffered extreme damage in a fire.

The shopping that used to occur in walkable stores in town was now all done in a large mall about 6 miles away that was situated along an interstate and centrally located between my hometown and 4 other small towns. All of the development out there was of the rapid, ugly, strip mall variety. I recall hiking that area as a teenager, swimming in a limestone sinkhole, camping by that same sinkhole, and watching the stars.

That sinkhole is gone. Main street in my home town is an excuse for an office park. And the ugliness of what has replaced it was truly saddening.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

One reason I can't agree with Kunstler is that I did grow up near DC - which at least in part is a lovely city, whether the Mall (where no one lives, admittedly), Rock Creek Park, or Georgetown. Less lovely the last time I visited, but no surprises there.

And Virginia itself had some fine areas - not only Alexandria, but Leesburg or Middleburg, or some of the truly exclusive areas around Chain Bridge, both on the Virginia and Maryland sides of the Potomac. Even Vienna was a nice town in the late 1960s/early 1970s, with much in easy walking distance. And smaller towns like Oakton or Fairfax City - which proudly proclaimed on a plaque at the courthouse that it was the first place where a shot was fired in the Civil War.

Most of this is gone now, but it was where I grew up - and watching it get bulldozered has certainly formed a major part of my perspective about America. My memories are of what