DrumBeat: May 14, 2007
Posted by Leanan on May 14, 2007 - 9:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
WTI Benchmark Temporarily Breaks Down: Is It Really a Big Deal?
Since the adoption of formula pricing in 1986, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has served as one of the main international benchmarks, along with Brent and Dubai, against which other types of crude oil are priced. While Brent remains the dominant benchmark for oil pricing outside the US, the latter’s oil imports are usually priced off WTI. In principle, the movement in WTI prices is supposed to reflect supply-demand conditions in the US, the largest consumer in the world, burning more than 20.5mn b/d of the 84.5mn b/d consumed worldwide in 2006. But the recent disconnection of WTI from the other benchmarks, resulting in WTI trading at large discounts to Brent, revived the debate on whether the WTI benchmark has been ‘broken’ and whether oil market participants should adopt another benchmark that better reflects the supply-demand balance.It has long been recognized that the link of WTI prices to other international benchmarks and to oil prices in other US regions is partly dictated by infrastructure logistics. The recent behaviour of WTI prices is a clear example of how pipeline logistics can dislocate WTI not only from the rest of the world, but also from other US regions.

Matthew Simmons has posted some new presentations at his Web site. (PDF)
● The Peaking Of Offshore Oil And Gas: Is The Party Over? Or Just Beginning To Get Exciting?
● Is Hydrocarbon Energy Entering Its Twilight Age? (If So, Can The World Survive?)
Kurdish Leader: Oil Law Is a Deal Breaker
To Iraq's Kurdish leadership, the issue of how to apportion the third-largest pools of oil in the world is "a make-or-break deal" for the country as a whole, a top official told United Press International."The oil issue for us is a red line. It will signify our participation in Iraq or not," Qubad Talabani, son of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and the Kurdistan Regional Government's representative to the United States, said in an interview from his Washington office.
Red light shows on South Africa’s fuel gauge
IN THE next 10 years, SA will depend increasingly on fuel imports to sustain economic growth. It means substantial investment in fuel storage and handling, transportation and refining. Putting it plainly, our refineries are operating at full capacity; our road and rail transport systems for carrying fuel are stretched to the limit; our pipelines are too expensive and too few; and our roads are crumbling.
Nepal still facing petroleum shortage
Panic over poor availability of fuel continued throughout the country, as Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) pumped out limited supply of oil amid the Indian supplier IOC's silence over issuing normal supplies to Nepal, local media reported on Monday.
Indonesia: Fuel shortages keep fishermen from going to sea in Lombok
Hundreds of fishermen in Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara, have been unable to go to sea for the last four days due to a fuel shortage in their area.
Scandal Again Looms Over Mexico’s Oil Company
One worrisome problem, due to its potential impact on the national economy, is a possible new scandal in connection with Mexico’s most important state-owned company, the oil and gas conglomerate Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. This involves former Pemex officials, including Fox’s director general Raúl Muños Leos, as well as members of the 100,000-plus Oil Workers’ Union — economically one of Mexico’s most powerful unions.
U.K.: Brown to build five eco towns
GORDON BROWN will attempt to trump David Cameron on green issues by announcing that he will create five new environmentally friendly towns when he becomes prime minister.
When it comes to giving up our cars, government must drive a better bargain
I suffer from "car brain" every time I am handed car keys. I lose all sense of logic. Somewhere deep in the reptilian core of my brain, lizard-thinking takes over. When car brain rules, any vague feeling of goodwill I have towards the environment evaporates. I enter a persistent vegetative state where I avoid walking and public transport at all costs.
Weaning the U.S. off foreign oil: Higher fuel efficiency is first step
Wouldn't it have been great if President Bush, or some leader in this country, had turned the Sept. 11 tragedy into something we all know should have been started decades ago: America's determined march to energy independence? None of us would have opposed such a campaign at that time. By now, 51/2 years later, we would have made substantial progress.
From a big fat tax to more efficiency to boosting production, there are ways to do it - but which really stand a chance?
Price and availability remain the bane - and the hope - of E85.
U.S. loans for coal plants clash with carbon cuts
A Depression-era program to bring electricity to rural areas is using taxpayer money to provide billions of dollars in low-interest loans to build coal plants even as Congress seeks ways to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
Australia: Public purse props up fossil fuel industries
Government support for the coal industry and coal-fired electricity is so generous that in some cases it has led to the construction of coal-fired power plants when other types of electricity generation would have been cheaper, the report by the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney has found.
Deforestation: The hidden cause of global warming
In the next 24 hours, deforestation will release as much CO2 into the atmosphere as 8 million people flying from London to New York. Stopping the loggers is the fastest and cheapest solution to climate change. So why are global leaders turning a blind eye to this crisis?
Saudi Aramco to Reduce Arab Light Oil Exports to Asia in June
Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state oil company, will cut Arab Light crude oil exports to Asia for the first time in at least three months as part of an overall supply reduction to the region.The Dhahran, Saudi Arabia-based oil producer will lower shipments starting in June, said three refinery officials who received notices and asked not to be identified because of confidentiality agreements. The producer has been reducing Arab Medium and Arab Heavy sales by between 9 percent and 10 percent of total contracted volumes.
AP Moller Maersk North Sea oil, gas production falls yr-on-yr in April
P Moller Maersk said oil production at its partly owned Dansk Undergrunds Consortium (DUC)'s 14 oil fields in the North Sea totalled 275,700 barrels per day during April, down 7% from a year earlier.The production of gas reached 495 mln cubic metres, down 42% from a year earlier.
Crude Oil Rises as U.S., European Refineries Report Incidents
Crude oil gained for a third day after incidents at refineries in Europe and the U.S. raised concern gasoline might run short this summer....U.S. stockpiles are the lowest for this time of year in 16 years and gasoline may remain the "primary driver" of oil prices, the International Energy Agency said last week.
Are world oil prices about to repeat last year's surge to record levels?
Climate change drives farm revolution in Australia
Farmer James Fagan uses satellites to guide his tractor when it plants his crop in the heart of Australia's drought-hit eastern wheat belt.His tractor, working on autosteer and guided by satellite technology, plants the length of the paddock in lines so straight that every centimeter of land is utilized for growing crops.
The Fagan farm, 250 kilometers (150 miles) west of Sydney, is among a growing number of Australian farms that have turned to advanced technology to fight the effects of climate change which threatens their annual crops.
"We're on a knife-edge," James' brother Ed said. "This was a pasture and its just been destroyed over the last five years because of the drought," he added.
One billion to be displaced by 2050, global warming a factor, group warns
At least one billion people risk fleeing their homes over the next four decades because of conflicts and natural disasters that will worsen with global warming, a relief agency warned Monday.In a report, British-based Christian Aid said countries worldwide, especially the poorest, are now facing the greatest forced migration ever -- one that will dwarf those displaced by World War II.
World's city mayors eye climate change at New York summit
Mayors from more than 40 of the world's largest and most polluted cities are to open a summit here Monday in the hope of agreeing on ways to tackle climate change and promote the use of clean energy.
Interview with Opium for the Masses, an Intelligent Band for Discerning Listeners
We are facing an inevitable energy crisis where industrialized nations are fighting over the table scraps of the 20th century. Peak Oil is coming in the next few years (if not already), and we have no energy plans to replace our huge consumption of fossil fuels. America, with its 5% of the world population, consumes 25% of its fossil fuels. No matter what energy companies or the government says, there is no replacement to America's energy consumption. Our economy is directly tied to energy and its availability. This is why we are in Iraq, it's a resource war. If competition heats up amongst industrialized states, resource wars, of larger scale, may be coming.
Almost everyone agrees Australia must reduce its greenhouse emissions.How we should achieve these reductions is the main point of debate.
Preferred policies involve laundering carbon or uranium.
But inevitably, attention must turn to our energy consumption and its accepted role as a generator of greenhouse emissions.
Bahamas: Blood, Oil and War
Today we wish to bring one fact to the public’s attention. We underscore the point that promises always come with price-tags.And for sure, there are prices over which we - as Bahamians - have absolutely no control. It necessarily follows that those who make promises should make sure that they can truly deliver.
We make this observation as we note that we have no control over the price we pay for oil. We make this observation as we take note of the relation between the fight for oil, war in Iraq and other atrocities around the world. As we see it, quite a few of these struggles are all about oil.
India to quit Indo-Myanmar gas pipeline project
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) has decided to leave Indo-Myanmar gas pipeline project following Chinese influence on military administration in Myanmar. According ONGC officials, opposition from Bangladesh for laying pipeline to transport gas to India from Myanmar via North Eastern states and West Bengal upto central India was the main hurdle for ONGC to carry out the project.
Ghana: President Kufuor in lights-off blues
President J. A. Kufuor was at the receiving end of the bitter side of the current energy crisis last Friday when his security men had to shove off people in the dark on three different occasions when there were intermittent power cuts during the commissioning of the Volta Star Textiles Limited formerly Juapong Textiles.
Southern Africa states ratify agreements over energy crisis
Member states in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have signed agreements that seek to tackle energy problems in the region.
Slovenia to Contribute to EU Energy Supply Warning Scheme
Attending a meeting of the EU Network of Energy Security Correspondents (NESCO) on Thursday, 10 May, Franc Zlahtic of the Economy Ministry told STA that Slovenia's role in collecting data across the EU and pointing out possible energy crisis situations would be foremost in keeping an eye on the gas end electricity transfer network.
Ghana: Energy crisis renders over 2,300 workers jobless
Thousand of Ghanaian workers have lost their jobs since the current energy crisis began in August 2006, according to statistics at the National Labour Department....Quite expectedly, the manufacturing sector, which heavily depends on electricity, tops the list with about 60% of all companies that declared bankruptcy within the period.
Sources at the NLD explained that these companies range from textile, pharmaceutical, mining, construction to hospitality industries.
BC's Billion-Dollar Wind Power Giveaway
We're heavily subsidizing private power developers. Will Californians profit big?
WHO'S AFRAID of Big Oil? Apparently, California's elected officials. Gasoline prices are stuck well above last year's record highs and about 50 cents above the national average. Yet state politicians are not saying or doing a thing, except for raking in political cash from the oil companies and flying around the world on their dime.



"Like many hard-headed Australian farmers, James Fagan is skeptical about dire warnings of global warming by scientists and politicians. "
Seems like all the US Fagans say that, too. :-(
Sorry, was that hard-headed or thick-headed?
25 Pictures of the USA in 1940
Even more Pictures of the USA in the 40's
Roger from The Netherlands
Chrysler sold, Ford up next
Members of Ford Motor Co.'s founding family are discussing the sale of part of their controlling stake in the money-losing automaker, three people with direct knowledge of the talks said.
The value of the shares has plummeted to $584 million from $2.3 billion since Bill Ford, great-grandson of the founder, became chairman eight years ago. The automaker eliminated dividends in September, wiping out about $85 million in annual income the family received as recently as 2001, when the shares paid a 30-cent dividend.
Ford shares rose to $8.46 today in trading in Frankfurt after DaimlerChrysler AG said it will sell 80.1 percent of its Chrysler Group to Cerberus Capital Management LP.
the dog that guarded the gates of hell will be "guarding" uaw pension fund ?
A posting by Charles Stross of a lecture he gave is particularly interesting for what he says about transport.
Which introduces the idea of transportation rationing not by distance, carbon, or any other metric - but by time taken.
Now you could say air travel is already doing a good job of increasing time wasted by 'security' at the airport, and multiple occupancy lanes increase time taken on the roads for those travelling wastefully (but also waste fuel). Maybe there is scope for similar developments elsewhere ?
8am: Shower. Save the water. Save the planet
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/6635759.stm
Interesting idea.
From the link on Saudi cuts above:
The world is calling on OPEC to increase production because of the expected summer crunch. But OPEC says they will do nothing until they meet in September, then decide.
Yet in the meantime Saudi continues to cut, piecemeal style, a little bit almost every month since their peak in the summer of 2005.
February production of the original OPEC-11, was down 1,950 million barrels per day since their peak in September of 2005. Yet Saudi continues to cut...and cut....and cut. But of course all these continued tiny cuts are all voluntary! Right Robert?
Ron Patterson
One thing I don't understand is how are the Asian refineries making up for the reduced supplies? If they buy more oil on the spot market, shouldn't that cause spot prices to go up a lot?
I think so. The Dow Jones version of this story said:
Thanks. That makes sense.
But the Saudi's have been cutting supplies to Asian refineries since November last year. I am wondering how they have coped with reduced supplies so far. There are no reports of fuel shortages from countries affected by the cutbacks.
Prices have gone up in Asia and Europe.
And some have said that the Asian refiners can't handle heavy crude. There was that story about China rejecting some shipments because their refineries couldn't handle that much heavy sour. So maybe the cuts were not that big a deal.
The interesting thing is, for the first time, Saudi Arabia is cutting back the light stuff, too.
Yup! That is the key!!
So far the cuts were for heavy or medium grade crude. Now they are beginning to cut the supply of light grade crude. The next few months should be interesting.
News.google- Asian Fuel Shortage -and get a different opinion. Or better still just news.google Fuel Shortage because it is a worldwide problem.
Fuel is being diverted from Africa, (those unable to pay higher prices) to Asia, (those able to pay higher prices).
Hey, think about it. You say they are buying more oil from the spot market. The Asian spot market is simply tankers willing to sell to the highest bidder. If some Asian country outbids Zimbabwe or wherever for oil, and averts a shortage in that part of Asia, that just means the shortage is shifted to someone else who could not afford to bid high enough.
Ron Patterson
The African countries, are they bidding on spot crude or do they bid on refined product? Do they have their own refineries, or do they bid on crude that is later refined in a third country?
I just watched the very excellent documentary, Manufactured Landscapes. In it there is a section on the ship salvaging area of Bangladesh. There is a shot of 100 men carrying by hand a giant, 2 and a half inch cable along the tidal flats. In the bonus features, the filmakers say they asked the foreman why they didn't use their winch to pull along the cable. The foreman did some quick math, saying hiring 100 men at 10 cents an hour cost them $10. The diesel for the winch would cost them $15. Is this our future?
Here is a website by a well known photographer and teacher, who visited that part of Bangladesh (he is also a videographer and perhaps the video you saw was partly his doing). He has a pic of a cable gang:
http://www.luminous-landscape.com/locations/ship-breaking.shtml
His conclusion:
Yes. But first and foremost in agriculture.
Also Jeffery Brown's estimation of our future. I bet OPEC is reading TOD and thinks Jeffery has the "nut flush". Cut back on contracted volumes and allow selling on spot market to the highest bidder. Makes perfect sense.
Jeffery, I have to give you a hand on this one, that was a very insightful call on your part. Your other comments are with out a doubt coming to "fruition" as well, as much as I don't like reading any of it.
Farmland or light rail accessable? I bet you will say farmland...
Best, D
What about Nepal?
I can't help but think there's a lot of countries that will be going the way of Nepal. They can't pay their fuel bill, so they've been cut off. They are begging for delivery to be resumed, but they can't pay. And I don't see how they will ever be able to pay. They've fallen so far behind. I guess they're hoping that oil will get cheaper, or their economy will boom, giving them more money to spend.
I also recall a story from 2004, when oil prices first started to spike. The forests were being denuded, as people turned to firewood instead of fossil fuels for cooking.
Nepal sells hydroelectricity to India, which desperately needs every MWh it can get (with more projects in the pipeline). So there is hope for them long term. Nepa; is probably a net energy exporter and can expand that.
Not true for other nations.
Alan
Nepal has a huge population problem... several times larger than the 1900 level, to which it must eventually find a way back. The current growth rate is 2.17 (CIA Factbook 2006, via Wikipedia). Ominous signs.
ciao,
Bruce
Drawing inventories still.
From IEA May Oil Market Report
And that is JUST from OECD. I suggest the remaining shortfall is being demand destroyed in poorer countries.
Pushing my T+3 week for KSA's failed ability to meet summer demand, September is a joke for reassessment - by the we can expect:
1) Oil supplies to be even tighter as stocks are drawn all summer.
2) Gasoline to be potentially critical(but not necessarily for the same reasons).
3) Natural gas and heating oil prices rising rapidly in anticipation of a tight winter.
4) An economy shaky at best.
What happens after that is the stuff of nightmares...you fill in the blanks.
5) the coming hurricane season in the GOM, which ist again expected to become intensive this year
If the U.S. is not going to be able to refine enough product to meet demand for the summer driving season, will it really be able as has been suggested to import the shortfall? Whose refining surplus is available for export? Is Europe poised to meet this demand?
Demand is a function of price, so rest assured demand will be met, just not the way motorists would want it to.
Oil pumped out of the ground now in the middle east, has to be piped to an export terminal, loaded onto tankers, sailed to Europe, offloaded, piped to a refinery, processed into gasoline, piped to an export terminal, loaded onto tankers, sailed to the US, offloaded, loaded onto trucks, and finally driven to your local gas station.
I am not excatly sure how long this takes. But I feel it's safe to say that even if OPEC raised output today. Europe can not save your summer driving season.
We tend to talk of demand as an immovable point - but it is better to say - demand will meet supply via price(and some politics).
Price will rise - some plants may squeeze out some more capacity, imports will rise as we divert 2 supertankers (VLCC class) full of gasoline a week from someone else in the world who cannot afford the new price. Demand will shrink due to the new pump prices (however little/big)...until they meet in the middle.
Gone are the days of supply will meet demand. Even if you think there is a still a few more years to peak, we are on a plateau until then...this is the new economics of depletion.
Exactly right. In any market there are a range of consumers with different marginal utilities for the good being supplied. The buyers with the lowest marginal utility for oil will be the first to drop their demand when the price of the oil exceeds their marginal utility. And so it will go, all the way down to the point where the price gets so high that there is nobody left to buy.
Hurin:"Demand is a function of price". Maybe. IMO, the current USA gasoline price increase trend is not sharp enough to choke off demand before supply issues arise. Possibly the prices will rise faster in late May and June.
If demand for gas in the U.S. is inelastic, this is certainly not true for all consumer spending. When American consumers feel unable to cut back on gas consumption in the face of high gas prices, demand destruction hits other sectors, as we saw in the April consumer spending numbers. May consumer spending stats should be interesting.
However, I suspect that in the longer term cutbacks in consumer spending circle back and ease pressure on energy supplies. If people are buying less, they are making fewer trips to the store. Long haul truckers are delivering less inventory to retailers, manufacturers cut back their deliveries of their own inputs, etc.
In other words, the pressures of summer gas supply/demand exigencies could easily tip us into recession.
And this is right too. Consumers with the means to afford the higher prices will simply pay them, and cutback on some other good of lower marginal utility. It is only those consumers with nothing else left to cut back on that will have no choice but to cut back on their consumption of gasoline or diesel or fuel oil.
If a poor person cannot afford to fill up the gas tank, then the gas tank won't get filled up. That is what we really mean by demand destruction. Sad, but true.
kenny you are dead on. I think the feedback loop has started and will show up in MSM later this year or early next.
The US's refineries cannot refine enough to meet demand, a situation that's existed for many years now. We import well over a million barrels of gasoline per day alone. Much of that product comes here to the west coast, thus the much higher prices at the pump.
Have you tried cutting down on driving?
Another important point is that it is LIGHT crude, where previously also heavy and medium were cut.
This is one of the great mysteries of our time. Is KSA running out of oil, or cutting voluntarily?
One factor to consider: OPEC makes more money when they pump less. Unlike farmers. Having thousands of farmers means each one can only increase profit by growing more. The cumulative effect, of course, is usually a glut, and they make less.
Not so in the oil world. A few extremely large "oil farmers" can cut production, and make more.
If you had a choice between 1) pump more and make less, or 2) pump less and make more, which would you choose?
Another fact to consider: At $60 a barrel, it looks like world fossil consumption is falling, or flatlining. To pump more now would mean a fall in prices. OPEC knows this, even winos in the park know this. My guess is that world fossil oil consumption falls mildly and semi-permanently at more than $60 a barrel. World consumption fell 11 percent after the 1979 price spike. That spike was worse in absolute terms (adjusted for inflation) but this one may be more sustained. Nevertheless, oil prices are double and triple or even five times late 1990s levels. Sooner or later, the screw will turn.
By the way, check out crude oil production in North America (not just the Lower 48) for the last 30 years. It is a flatline, despite cheap-o oil prices for most of that period. As a founding member of the Fossil Flathead Society, I call that "Cole's Plateau" (as opposed to Hubbert's Peak).
No one can say what makes the Lower 48 any more instructive than North America as a whole. Indeed, if our ancestors had been a little more aggressive in their fevered dreams of Manifest Destiny, maybe the USA and North America would be the same. Alak and alas, we let things slide away, and so we have Hubbert's Peak, instead of Cole's Plateau.
Last note: Veep Cheney was in Iraq (according to Sunday's LA Times) and told Iraqis if they didn't get that oil law passed, then come September they would find Congressional support for US troops in Iraq would dissolve. Hmmm. You can put women back into the Stone Age, kick out non-Islamics, and in general create anarchy, but man if we don't get that oil, we are leaving.....