 | Depletion Levels in Ghawar | The Oil Drum | Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse |  |
DrumBeat: May 16, 2007
Posted by Leanan on May 16, 2007 - 9:02am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Here is a quick run down on the possible disaster we face this summer as we head into Memorial Day with the lowest beginning-of-driving-season stocks in US history. It would have been convenient had someone found out exactly what Minimum Operating Levels really have become. I suspect we will answer this riddle this summer.Minimum Operating Levels of petroleum inventories are when all cushions have been used up and the system is now starting to “rob Peter to pay Paul." At this stage, the risk of shortages starting to crop up is Red Alert.
The AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 - How Much Is Left?
Late last year, in November 2006, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists organised a two day conference in Colorado Springs, USA which was by invitation only, described by the Oil and Gas Journal as the “AAPG Hedberg Research Conference on Understanding World Oil Resources”. The theme of the conference was to discuss the world’s remaining reserves of oil, and to reach some conclusions about how large reserves were. 75 specialists attended. Everyone who attended had specialist knowledge of original oil field data in specific basins around the world. The USGS were joint organisers and made a number of presentations comparing their studies with industry and state oil company experts having original data sets.
Venezuela Private Oil Rig Ops May Drop on Nationalist Risk
Venezuela's threats to "nationalize" 18 oil rigs currently operated by outside firms sent a shock wave through the local oil services industry at a time these services are in high demand around the globe.
OPEC: World oil demand to reach 85.4 mln barrels a day in 2007
The world's daily demand for oil will reach 85.4 million barrels this year, up 1.2 million from 2006, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) Secretariat Tuesday in its monthly report.
Norway government eases 2007 projected oil, gas production
The Norwegian ministry of petroleum and energy has downwardly revised the country's projected oil and gas production this year, cutting its total production figure to 243 mln cubic metres of oil equivalent (cmoe) from 249 mln last year.
Norway Has Not Yet Reached its Golden Age as a Gas Nation
"Norway has not yet reached its golden age as a gas nation, and will supply natural gas to Europe for many decades to come, Tore Torvund, head of the business area Oil & Energy in Hydro, announced at the 14th European Gas Conference in Oslo on Tuesday.While oil production from the Norwegian continental shelf is on the wane, Torvund emphasized that Norway has major gas reserves that have not yet been produced.
Nigeria: Shell declares force majeure on 170, 000 bpd Bonny oil exports
Angry Ogoni youths occupied a major oil pipeline feeding the Bonny export terminal in a protest which began on May 10, forcing Shell to cut 170,000 barrels per day of production.
Venezuelan oil output hits 2.35 million bpd
Oil production in Venezuela dropped 40,000 bpd in April, according to the International Energy Agency.
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia may pose bigger problems than Iraq, Afghanistan
Security collapse in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could pose far greater problems for the west than either Iraq or Afghanistan, a former US general said on Tuesday, according to the Australian Associated Press news agency.
The 6,400 employees at Brazilian environmental regulator Ibama have started their threatened strike in protest over what they deem as government interference in the organization's structure, local press reported.President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva published a presidential decree late last month ordering Ibama to split up the management and overseeing of nature reserves into a new institute dubbed Chico Mendes.
Iraqis resist U.S. pressure to enact oil law
Opposition ranges from vehement to measured, but two things are clear: The May deadline that the White House had been banking on is in doubt. And even if the law is passed, it fails to resolve key issues, including how to divide Iraq's oil revenue among its Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni regions, and how much foreign investment to allow. Those questions would be put off for future debates.
What Happens After US Withdrawal from Iraq?
It seems that the question being asked behind the scenes in Washington today is not whether or not the US forces will withdraw from Iraq, but when and how, and, more importantly, who will take the place of the US troops in Iraq?
Power industry warns on high price of moving to ‘clean coal’
The UK power industry has told the Government that the development of “clean coal” power stations will not take place without heavy subsidy and higher electricity prices.
Next-Gen Energy Conference: Moore's Law for solar?
Is it time for the solar power industry to focus less on tech R&D and more on delivering affordable solar energy to the masses?
Hydrogen cars may be a long time coming
President Bush's goal of putting the next generation of Americans into cars fueled by hydrogen is slipping away.Technology, economics and human behavior are proving to be formidable obstacles to the president's dream of using hydrogen - the most abundant element in the universe - to reduce America's dependence on gasoline.
Our view on atomic energy: As globe heats up, nation warms to nuclear power
Solar, wind and other renewable energy sources are more desirable than nuclear — but they're not ready to produce the huge amounts of electricity the USA consumes. Nuclear power isn't a perfect answer, but safely managed and regulated, it needs to be a bigger part of the nation's energy future.
Saudi Arabia has discovered two new oilfields near Ghawar, the world's largest field, Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi said.Output from one of the fields was light crude with an API gravity measure of 35 degrees. The Derwaza-1 well on that field, 70 km southeast of Ghawar, produced 5,569 barrels per day of oil and 2.8 million cubic feet per day of gas.
The second field produced heavy crude with an API gravity of 27.4 degrees, the SPA news agency said.
Saudi Aramco Signs Offshore Manifa Contract with J. Ray McDermott
Saudi Aramco signed a lump-sum turn-key contract with J. Ray McDermott for the engineering, procurement, fabrication, transportation, installation and hookup of offshore platforms for the 900,000 bpd Manifa oilfield development project.
Will oil go up or down $10 per barrel in the next few years?No one can answer that with any certainty as dozens of interrelated political and economic forces can each move prices several dollars per barrel, and divining the collective effect is impossible.
Will oil hit $100 per barrel?
That, surprisingly, is an easier question because there is one indicator that may give you a pretty good idea: the U.S. response to Iraq's civil war.
Turkmenistan's natural gas: mixed blessing
A weekend deal with Russia for a pipeline will raise revenues for the ex-Soviet country, but some worry how those will be spent.
IEA Warns Russia, Iran Against Pushing 'Resource Nationalism'
Ministers of International Energy Agency member states warned major natural gas producers such as Russia and Iran on Tuesday against disrupting energy markets with production-adjusting actions based on nationalism and using their rich resources as leverage over others, IEA officials said.
Why $5 Gas Is Good for America
The skyrocketing cost of oil is sending pump prices soaring. But it's also subsidizing research into new technologies that can change the energy game.
Congress urged to ease pain of gas prices
The average U.S. household is already spending $1,000 more per year on gasoline than it did five years ago, two consumer groups say in testimony they planned to present to a House Judiciary Committee task force Wednesday.That's an increase of 85 percent, and rural households have been hardest hit because they spend about 20 percent more on gas than urban residents, the Consumer Federation of America and Consumers Union said, citing Labor Department figures.
"It is time for Congress and the administration to do their part to help alleviate the pain consumers are feeling at the pump," said Mark Cooper, director of research for the federation. At Wednesday's hearing, he plans to call on the federal government to provide greater oversight over oil industry market practices, create strategic refinery and product reserves, and enact policies that promote reduced oil consumption.
Despite cost of gas, motorists still driving
For all their complaining as they pay $3 a gallon or more to fill up their cars, few American drivers have yet to reach the point of cutting back.....Most Americans are locked into their driving habits, and can do little to alter their fuel-buying patterns when prices rise, experts say. For example, the number of workers with commutes lasting longer than 60 minutes grew by almost 50 percent between 1990 and 2000, according to Census Department data.
'70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
"We are one major incident away from a 1970s-style gasoline crisis," Paul Sankey, an oil analyst, warned the Senate Energy Committee yesterday.
Dow, Shenhua closer to clean coal plant
Domestic coal mining giant Shenhua Group and US-based Dow Chemical Company have signed a cooperation agreement and announced plans for a feasibility study, bringing the two a step closer to building a world-class coal-to-chemicals complex in Northwest China's Shaanxi Province.
Motorists will pay for energy 'solution'
It's hard to believe the news on gas prices could get any worse. But the rush to ethanol almost certainly will push prices at the pump even higher. And that's not all the bad news: The ethanol craze already is causing food prices to rise, and they will rise higher as farmers try to meet the huge, government-mandated demand for corn.
Senate defeats climate change measure
The Senate, after one of its first full debates on global warming, on Tuesday defeated a proposal requiring the Army Corps of Engineers to consider the impact of climate change in designing water resources projects.
Ignore car fee critics, London mayor tells NYC
London Mayor Ken Livingstone backed New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's plan to adopt the British capital's traffic-fighting vehicle fee, urging him on Tuesday to ignore critics and any drop in approval ratings.
LA wants to slash greenhouse gases
Los Angeles — a city devoted to cars and polluted by the exhaust that comes with them — announced Tuesday an array of steps to sharply reduce greenhouse gases by 2030.Some ideas appear easy, like planting trees and giving each household a couple of energy-saving fluorescent light bulbs. Others are speculative at best, like expanding the city's mostly ignored subway and hoping to slow water use at a time when the city's population is growing.
16 cities to go green under Clinton plan
Sixteen cities around the world will begin cutting carbon emissions by renovating city-owned buildings with green technology under a program spearheaded by former President Clinton's foundation.
California to rank greenhouse gas content of fuels
California on Friday will unveil a ranking of greenhouse gas emissions from motor fuels with the goal of encouraging people to use low-carbon alternatives.Scientists will reveal the formula for calculating the amount of greenhouse gases emitted from the full cycle of fuels — from extraction and harvesting to combustion — said David Crane, an advisor to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Clarion Caller: An interview with renowned climate scientist James Hansen
...The only way to keep CO2 from exceeding 450 parts per million would be to say we'll have no more emissions from coal, and that would mean that we should not be building any more coal-fired plants until we have the sequestration technology. A molecule of CO2 from coal, in a certain sense, is different from one from oil or gas, because in the case of oil and gas, it doesn't matter too much when you burn it, because a good fraction of it's going to stay there 500 years anyway. If we wait to use the coal until after we have the sequestration technology, then we could prevent that contribution. I don't think that has sunk in yet to policy makers, because there are many countries going right ahead and making plans to build more coal-fired power plants.
California-Sized Area of Ice Melts in Antarctica
Warm temperatures melted an area of western Antarctica that adds up to the size of California in January 2005, scientists report.Satellite data collected by the scientists between July 1999 and July 2005 showed clear signs that melting had occurred in multiple distinct regions, including far inland and at high latitudes and elevations, where melt had been considered unlikely.
Is Gazprom Vladimir Putin's retirement haven?
Analyst: Russia's energy policy geared to make Gazprom global champion
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/russias-putin-positioning-top-gazp...
Doesn't that just say it all?
As for the call for the government to "enact policies that promote reduced oil consumption" - the best policy is to let the price increase, dude!
Of course she doesn't have a choice - if she stopped driving, her life would change.
And give the choice, she would rather spend upwards of 10 hours a week in her SUV than not.
That truly says it all.
My dear Sandy, putting aside whether you actually have a choice or not -
If you don't choose for yourelf, then a choice will be made for you...
Oh, this one is really good too, from the "70's style oil crisis" article above
What is "unconscionably excessive"? Costs more than bottled water ?
I thought this one was also telling:
He could have been driving something such a Scion XB to 'haul around' his 'wares', but that would be whimpy, wouldn't it?
well it's just a really aesthetically unpleasing design. Plus an suv w/ all the attendant poor handing dynamics. I'll take a TDI and use a roof rack (probably holds almost as much anyways)
matt
Actually, the Scion XB (old version, as pictured) has on-rode driving dynamics that are more car-like than truck-like. While it barely exceeds the external aesthetics of an Aztec, it has quite a bit of room inside, 30+ MPG efficiency, $14k list price.
That said, I think the best solution for the GMC Yukon person is a cargo van. Or, wait until fuel prices reach $5+ and stay that way; then the US will suddenly have a large assortment of vehicles that are currently only used everywhere else in the world but here.
The Scion has 74 cubic feet of cargo volume.
The Chevy TrailBlazer has 107 cubic feet of cargo volume.
The Honda Odessy Minivan has 147 cubic feet of cargo volume.
The Scion wins out on MPG at 33mpg HWY.
The Chevy Trailblazer gets 20mpg HWY.
The Honda gets 25 mpg HWY.
The Scion wins out on price as well. $14k.
Honda minivan is $25.6k
Chevy Trailblazer is $25.8k
If you need good gas mileage AND big cargo capacity, minivans are the way to go. Just take all the seats out, and BOOM, cargo room. If you don't need as much cargo space, the Scion is the way to go.
Well, we could sell the used Pukons to countries with subsidized gas prices.
Don't forget to take them off when not in use...
http://www.metrompg.com/posts/roof-racks.htm
Come to think of it, a Pukon is really good for towing things. That is if you have things that you need to tow.
I know someone who has one - he uses it because he races cars (Porsche), and need to pull a trailer with the race car. Don't talk to me about it - that isn't my hobby.
I'm waiting for the "soccer kid" riots to begin, when mommy has to say NO, ride your bike or forget it! Oh the cruelty of it all...
Yeah, all those reports that people "cannot change" their driving, since they have to drive to work, and then we have the stats (that Stuart posted here?) that only 20% of US VMT is commuting to work.
Delusional.
You may not be far from the truth. (And this will also impact the UK because of the way many of us now live).
Two types of driving:
None discretionary - Work commutes, food shopping etc
Discretionary: - Piano lessons, Rugby practice, football, tuition etc etc. Then of course the summer holidays: Visits, holidays, the beach etc
Everything to keep their most Imperial and Royal Highnesses happy, occupied and not (the dreaded word here) BORED.
Long gone are the days when kids were expected to look after there own entertainment in the summer. Kicked out after breakfast, back at sunset, out on your bike for the whole day. Setting fire to wasps nests, vapourising ants with a magnifying glass, playing down 't tip with asbestos sheeting, discovering Cider with Rosie.
This idyll was actually quite true 40 years ago. But then perceptions have changed: A kiddy fiddler behind every bush, An Osama in every anonymous white van...
So, expect discretionary driving to dissappear off the menu this summer. And consequent degeneration of national child health.
Ah well, at least every pre-diabetic, asthmatic, obese kid will be 'safe' this summer.
btw: UKGov MOD has just dropped its fitness criteria for new Army recruiting entry levels. Running in boots is out: the 'little darlings' have spent their lives in trainers so the foot bones of new recruits are too soft.
Example: The Ten Tors hike in Devon / Cornwall was abandoned last weekend for 'health and safety' (It was raining, a bit...). 850 Soldiers, helicopters and St Johns Ambulance were involved in the 'rescue' of the teenagers involved.
A spokesman said: ' Although NONE of the participants completed the hike, ALL were awarded the Ten Tors Medal'.
AFFS! Why bother then? Why not just buy it off ebay?
God help us if the Belgian Girl Guides invade the UK. We are toast.
Jeezus effin Christ: Maybe 12 year old African kids with AK47's should inherit the earth.
Astounding, and I thought only Amurkhan kids deserved outrage such as this!!!!
You...you really mean that some folks other than us idiot Amurkhans have spoiled rotten children and soccer mommies?
Why then is it all I mostly hear is bitching about the USA?
Thanks Mudlogger for the realist update and appraisal.
A personal note: I tried my damnest to raise my kids right but the schools, television and there mother decided they knew best. After 5 years of grade school my son didn't know the answer to 2+2. It was all downhill after that.
Airdale--Phillip Wylie said it all...years ago.
Question: Why don't we just jail the pedophiles for life or else execute them? Or let them swab out jail cells for the rest of their miserable life? Why do we need to 'study' them? Ditto serial killers.
Oh no. I thought it was only here in the US.
Your Ten Tors Medal story is bad and sad. It's sad that someone can't speak out without getting labeled as being mean and too hard on the poor little tikes. I agree why bother, have cookies and milk instead.
My son pitched a fit because he was "mistreated" by working here at home AND GETTING PAID above minimum wage the whole time. He constantly rubbed everything the the kids from high tech families had in my face as a sign of his mistreatment. I was a frickin battle and I'm glad he moved out as soon as he did. Still brings it up. I'm sorely tempted to tell him STFU, get counsuling, or just stay away.
Seriously, WTF? "Suffering" is not having mommy and daddy buy you are new car, insurance, gas, the best computer, new snow board, the list goes on. Helped him through college and to buy a house. I guess he thinks my bank account was supposed to be his. After a while you just get to that point if he can't shut up and grow up then I don't want him here, and this is very sad IMO.
I get so mad a people who think they are helping thier kids by giving them everything. Is it 1)guilt from not spending time with them. 2)that the parents had to do without and never wanted thier kids to "suffer' as they did.3) They want thier kids to be cool. 4) Caved into thier kids pressuring them.
I haven't a clue, but its a bitch putting up with the shit. Fortunatly my wife and I are on the same page(!!!) Even if you have the money they need to earn it themselves. Yes you can help them but not like so many parents do in my not so humble opinion.
Sorry to see its so universal. I see lowering standards here to. Volenteer(sp?) coached b-ball one year in kids gradeschool. My god the attitude/language that came out of soome kids. I went to the principle and talked to him. He agreed with my observation (needing some firm discipline!)but said our hands are tied. The two worst offenders from this tiny school have been in the papers - arrested for drugs and stealing. Words cannot describe how disgusted I was by the whole experience, never, ever again.
Naah, fuhgeddaboudit, mommy's never going to say anything like that. Never in 106 years. "Too dangerous." I don't think the objective statistics are one iota worse than 20, 30, or 40 years ago. But ever since Ralph Nader, mommy and daddy have been consumers living in ever-growing sheer terror of their own shadows.
Well, fancy that - just a couple of days after explaining what may be happening in Ghawar, the Saudis find a couple of new fields - size unknown.
See, the Saudis are truly transparent, and love to share whatever data they develop.
As long as nobody starts getting any ideas that the oil might starting running out.
Maybe they had been using the Croft structure map and when Stuart and Garyp stretched it out they moved in a rotary.:)
FF
That whole area has been explored. Its not exactly far from Ghawar and they have mapped the whole area within an inch of its life, witness 'Jafura', 'Harmaliyah', 'Niban'. All this means is they've sunk a well or two into some small likely prospects and found some oil.
How many exploratory onshore drilling rigs does Aramco have?
What is their strike rate?
What size are these two fields?
Those are more interesting questions...
They certainly hit the mother lode on one of those sites with,what?... nearly 5,600 bb/day:)
you got to Love It!!
I'm back down in the southern Bahamas after a quick month of shopping and medical stuff in the U.S. We're paying $5.00 a gallon here already and nobodys slowing down yet
"it's just a temporary thing"
Ed
if you slow down, you just give up your "share" of the gasoline which can be had at todays prices to someone else.
Is that what is known as a lost opportunity cost?
Its called Prisoner's dilemma or Tragedy of the Commons
Say! If US cuts demand 10%, other importers will slurp the 10% right into their own demand including new SPRs. Ain't gonna happen unless exporters first agree to ration/allocate their output...which action will be announced soon, if not already being gradiently implemented.
Other festering wildcards?
Political changes among exporters, especially as they see they are being screwed and reality of PO. As in Iraq, Iran, East-African Coast, Gulf of Mex., Canada.
Policy change among exporters who already demonstrated some political change to being victimized, as Venezuela, Libya, Algeria, Russia.
[dump US Dollars in bidding up crude prices].
Is N-S pipeline from Iraq into KSA being used to conceal depletion? or "resting" fields?
Desperate measures to fight back where change is ssuppressed, as in vulnerability of pipelines, storage, producing-field and loading infrastructure.
This is era of RPGs that penetrate 5'armourplated rebar-concrete and foot+ of reactive-armour; 500 mph underwater torps; $100 GPS kits; volunteers/mercenaries waiting in line for your offer.
As we await today's EIA report, I put together a little analysis to show just how far we have to go to dig out of this hole:
http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2007/05/this-week-in-petroleum-5-16-07.h...
My predictions? Gasoline inventories to go up today, but we will enter Memorial Day with the lowest inventory level on record.
Bloomberg is predicting a rise of 1 million barrels, which seems significant. They've been fairly accurate in the past.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aa7L4t5X4gy8
I had been looking for their prediction. Thanks for that. I would point out, though, that they have missed some badly (by millions of barrels) over the past couple of months. We will know in 27 minutes.
AP Dow Jones Newswires poll of analysts:
Crude + .5
Gas + .9
Distillates +1.2
I don't think a million is possible....I guess we will see soon.
One million is very possible. In fact look at spring production histories over the last 10 years and you'll see that 1-2 million growth per week should be probably the norm.
However as Robert noted at his blog, we are still way too low for the summer driving season. And Matthew Simmons noted that consumption almost always rises further in July and August. Consumption is so high in the summer that they cannot raise production then. They have to draw down pre-produced stocks, which is what the spring buildup covers.
Spring is always the build season for summer gasoline inventories. It just didn't happen this year which should make this summer interesting to say the least.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Well, 1.7 M barrels is good but not great news.
I was concerned about the build based on an imports shortfall in last couple weeks(400kbpd). To build comparatively to previous years this week, they had to increase production, and imports.
I just got in and haven't seen the report yet, so the exact break down is unknown me still.
More later when I read the report and R-squared/Robert's comments.
A single typical supertanker holds around 2 million barrels. And tankers can carry gasoline as well as crude (witness gasoline exports to NA from diesel-heavy European refineries). So when does the tanker load become inventory? When it docks? As it offloads? With this kind of granularity it seem hard to take a one million barrel fluctuation as consequential.
AFAIK, the only major US port that can take ships much larger than the low end of the "supertanker" range (~100,000 tons) is the Louisiana LOOP. And I think the LOOP is set up for crude only.
Any one with better info ?
Alan
A 2 million bbl capacity tanker is not typical. 2 million bbls is a VLCC 250kt dwt or thereabouts(very large crude carrier) and yes it carries crude not refined products. Most US ports are contrained by draft with the exception of LOOP (louisana offshore oil platform)which is crude import only, and although the larger petroleum product carriers 80k dwt can fit into most US ports they can only do so part laden...
As for 1 million bbls +- in the weekly stats...noise.
To get a better feel for trends etc you have to take 3 to 4 weeks as an aggregate..
rgds.
I think this story might be of interest to some here. The original
articles have been removed (in short order) from the UK websites, presumably
because of legal or D-Notice intervention. The full text is available
here as well as other blog sites.
A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
Tell everyone you know in Melbourne, Australia..
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil, normally a reclusive bunch of number crunchers, has ventured out into the world of movies and entertainment. We are hosting the opening night for the new Peak Oil movie:
Book Now: www.cinemanova.com.au or phone 03 9349 5201.
Panel discussion following the film with Kenneth Davidson (The Age), Elliot Fishman (Institute for Sensible Transport) and Phil Hart (former facilities engineer in UK North Sea oil and gas industry).
National release dates on the ASPO Australia website. If you watch it, you won't be so surprised when petrol hits $1.50/litre. You could also post this flyer on the nearest pinboard.
On a separate note, I'd be delighted to hear from folks interested in peak oil anywhere in Oz, but especially in Victoria: www.philhart.com/contact
cheers!
Phil.
DownUnder.. can you contact me via the link:
www.philhart.com/contact
Where abouts in Oz are you?
Some on TOD have complained about the (new) comments clearing to read when posting.
I right click and open "Post Comment" in new window then close window when done and continue to read NEWs.
Also I suspect if when DIGGing, REDDIT, or SLASHDOTing, if you right click and open in new window they don't dismiss as one url flooding the vote over and over. Makes each vote unique and harder to filter.
Just a thought. I might me way out in left field (and under the overpass).
Haven't figured how to accomplish this on my MAC other than cut and paste in new window.
That is not the problem.
The problem is, when you post a message, in a new window or not, all the "new" tags that appeared while you were reading and posting are cleared.
As noted yesterday, I (on my Apple Mac Mini :-) click |Reply in new window|, type out my response, but delay clicking "post".
I first read all [ new ] posts AND hit reload to catch any new posts in the last few minutes. THEN I hit post.
About 80% of the time. Self discipline ...
Best Hopes for Perfect Software,
Alan
I think we all figured that one out on our own. It's not exactly rocket science.
But it's a PITA. This problem is the result of an attempt to fix an earlier complaint (having to load the whole thread each time you reply). Obviously, having to reload the whole thread anyway, before you post, is not exactly a fix.
You don't have to reload, but you have the option. It's all about options. The way it used to be, you couldn't post a comment without the whole page reloading on you. Terrible for those on dial-up. Here in the woods of Vermont I get 30 kbps on a good day.
Hopefully super-G (blessed he!) will find a way to prevent the "new" tags from getting updated when they shouldn't. Perhaps based on the URL format.
Here in the woods of Vermont I get 30 kbps on a good day
Here is the wilderness of the Lower Garden District of New Orleans, I was lucky to get that when I first joined TOD.
But broadband has been restored for some months now. However, I got "used to" slower speeds and workarounds (do not load images as a default for FireFox) and since I am negative financially, I have kept dial-up. For now.
Best Hopes for less static,
Alan
Try satelite if you can afford it. Life won't get any easier on dialup. I used to get 18-21 kbps. It's amazing how much more time you can waste on the internet when you're not getting angry at slow loading speeds.
Let me explain it via a scenario with a passage of time.
1. You open up an article with comments to read. You have lots of "new" tags to read.
2. As you read, you post a reply in a new window.
3. As you continue to read, John Doe posts a reply in a new window.
4. You post another reply in a new window.
5. Next, Mary Smith posts a reply.
5. Now you refresh the article to get the next batch of "new" tags.
Will John Doe's post show as a "new" tag to you? No, it does not, even though you have never read it before. Will you see Mary Smith's post as "new"? Yes you will because she posted after you last posted.
What happens is that each time you post, the site software marks that time as the last read time for the entire article and comments. So as soon as you refresh to get new articles you will only get "new" tags on articles posted AFTER your last posted. This probably occurs because Drupal tracks only the time you last read the entire article and the thread. More sophisticated software will track the time at which you read each post. A happy medium can probably be struck here if Super G can modify the site so that it does not update your last read flag when you post a reply, but only when you refresh the entire thread.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I gather this is not possible. At least not easily. Something to do with the way Drupal handles databases.
One help would be pre-composing a reply in a text editor. Then the reply would be a very quick copy and paste. It is also better for careful review of what you are writing, something that not many people do.
Unfortunately, I think the opposite is happening. People reply quickly, without reading carefully, because they want to read the thread as quickly as possible, and reply as quickly as possible, knowing that the longer they delay, the more "new" flags they will lose.
Leanan,
I posted this yesterday -- perhaps you missed it due to the "flags" problem.
It would be nice if users could set backward their own "timestamp" within a topic -- say, a button to "rewind" by 10 minutes, 30 minutes, or whatever. Just a thought.
No, I didn't miss it. It's just not technically feasible, as I understand it.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/980ece92-0349-11dc-a023-000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=fc...
IRAQ has 100B more barrels of undiscovered oil, right?
Can anyone point me to an article or data that completely refutes this or at least provides some accurate data to make the oil point on a finance board?
100 billion barrels isnt much at all.
at 85 million barrels a day we end up with about 3.5 extra years at current consumption.
still not forever, but it could be significant enough to save the world from collapse. imagine if peak oil is recognized and a switch from FF to something occurs, we will still need a great deal of oil to make the switch. iraq may be able to provide that to the world.
(plus of the 100Bbarrels, maybe 50% is URR) soooo..... [someone correct me here if i am wrong]
Iraq was set up so that the British Navy could get oil for its Battleships about 90 years ago. The chances that there should be mega oil fields lurking unfound there must be rated as rather unlikely.
My backyard has 200 billion barrels of oil. Because I said so. Without drilling. Without any testing or other exploration. My backyard is now as important as Saudi Arabia.
Let's make a deal, ok? Give me money and I'll let you drill in my backyard.
And that about sums up the entire Iraq 100 billion barrel oil claim right there.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
If the place isn't explored, tossing out a number like 100B barrels is meaningless.
I never explored my back yard for burried pirate treassure, so using the same kind of logic it must have a 100 troves of gold and diamonds buried in it.
But I believe their claim that the place is unexplored is simply not true. BP mush have been to the place before they got kicked out of the county. They probably didn't find the right sort of rocks and abandoned the place.
As I recall the 100 to 115 billion barrels of oil are a fairly standard estimate used in the industry for Iraq's oil reserves (see Cambell etc https://aspo-ireland.org/newsletter/en/htm/Newsletter75.htm ). I can't tell you the criteria (proven, probable etc). I was at a recent public meeting with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)- probably the same one as that where the FT got its quotes from, as there were journos from all the main news agencies. The KRG said that the region (Northern Iraq in old terms)had very little exploration info outside of the know Kirkuk and other main fields - they said that Google earth was as good a start as anywhere for new exploration. So, on this basis there are grounds to say much of the area 'is not explored'. Whether it will yield 45B barrels is another question. All other quotes, such as ramping up KRG production to 500K barrels in the near term and producing 2-4 extra million barrels per day longer term - are speculation at this point. There is no data to base this on - at least by the standard criteria used for reserves reporting. The main concern at the moment is the strong disagreement between the central Baghdad government and the KRG in their attempts to set up new oil exploration and production contracts with Internationl Companies unilaterally.
That 100 B barrels doesn't exist. CERA parent company published that report to convince Sunni's they have oil in their part of the country to defuse their objections to US plans in Iraq.
Tate 423,
Yes, here is very good information from the AAPG by M K Horn and associates. They would be lucky to have 35 billion barrels left. In the link below look at Figures 2 and 3 and for accurate details on the large oil fields -click on Table 1 below Figure 17.
Also note what they say about Ghawar in the text at the bottom.
http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/gong03/index.htm
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 11, 2007
The bulk of the gasoline build continues to be on the West Coast (1.2 million barrels out of the 1.7 build).
So, excluding the West Coast, the US only showed a 500,000 barrel build in gasoline inventories.
Edit:
The West Coast is geographically isolated, gasoline wise, from the rest of the country. Four weeks ago, gasoline inventories in the rest of the country (excluding West Coast) were 167.2 mb, versus total gasoline supplied (whole country) 9.2 mbpd. Most recent week, 166.6 mb, versus total gasoline supplied of 9.4 mbpd.
I suppose that West Coast consumption numbers are out there somewhere, but if we look at non-West Coast inventories, relative to total US consumption, the Days of Supply number has gone from 18.2 days to 17.7 days. Regardless of what the exact number is, the bottom line is that for most of the country, it looks like gasoline inventories relative to consumption are declining.
As I showed on my blog, we would have to build 4.8 million barrels a week for 3 weeks just to get to the lower end of the range, and 2.4 million barrels a week to avoid going into Memorial Day with the lowest inventories on record. So, after today's numbers, the situation looks worse.
I use an ExxonMobil station on the Dallas North Tollway as my personal indication of where gasoline prices are headed. This morning, I noticed that they broke the $3 barrier for the first time this year (of course, that's old news for a lot of the country).
One of the things that concerns me is that gasoline is and will be underpriced, and we are going to have spot shortages because prices are not high enough to dampen demand.
Indeed it seems distributors are in a race to quell demand with price. (and profit too, I'm sure) I was in Chicago on Monday and the high price was $3.55 for regular unleaded. The average posted for R/U in the last 8 hrs. is now $3.68
Gas Price Watch (It will be interesting to see if the 'L' ridership gains any)
The latest round of 'raise it or we'll drain it' sees each successive load costing enough more that merchants must increase quickly to cover replacement.
BTW WT, the only place that gasoline dropped was California thanks to those big tanks of gas from abroad.
Robert, this may explain why I am seeing a much larger profit margin between wholesale cost and the selling retail of gasoline. It may be a direct effort to dampen demand?
In KC metro, regular unleaded is universally $3.09 now throughout all stations on the Missouri side. With wholesale at around $2.30, it should be around $2.80.
[edit: corrected spelling)
I go back and forth on the likelihood of price based demand destruction - I think that people will not change their usage much until they absolutely have to. They'll pay whatever they must until they simply don't have the money. Therefore, demand reduction will only occur with those on the edge of solvency. How high do prices have to get before that shows up as a significant reduction in demand? A lot higher, I'd bet.
I'm trying to get a feel for how big the effect will be - I expect it to switch rather rapidly once the housing crash builds, and as the economy falls apart, but there could be a considerable delay until that happens. It seems like it would be a tough thing to model.
Twilight: IMHO, one of the reasons for the inelasticity is the belief (fostered by the MSM) that the price increase is temporary. Unless one is at the financial edge, decisions re type of vehicle to purchase or miles driven weekly will be determined by one's expectations of future long term prices. Influential MSM mouthpieces are still given air time without ridicule when they discuss a return to $30 crude oil.
Not to mention the usual congressinal hearing inquiring trying to determine the problem, what is causing high gas prices "this time". Although, the hearing were interesting yesterday in that one of the experts relayed how there was a very effective way to fix the refinery capacity problem --- consume less and implement taxes and other demand constraining techniques.
On the one hand, the oil companies are being excoriated for not building enough capacity; on the other hand we are talking about steps to reduce demand. This is one of the oil companies biggest fear; they invest a bunch of additional money in refineries and then demand drops.
Well, regardless, the best way to fix capacity problems is to reduce demand. And the best way to reduce demand is to convince people that high gas prices are permanent. And that requires leadership and courage.
And the best way to reduce demand is to convince people that high gas prices are permanent. And that requires leadership and courage.
Great comment. First candidate to stand up and tell us that truth and propose something reasoned to do about it gets my vote. (they're going to need votes)
Unless they start to demand payment in cash there will be no demand destruction, some people will just charge it with no intent of paying.
Interesting notion, but wouldn't that attitude then be for all purchases? Why just petrol? When retailers begin demanding cash, is that then the beginning of the slide towards barter?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Demand Destruction will appear when it's cheaper to spend the week in a motel than to drive an hour each way every day.
I know some people who are already doing that. The local motel charges $100 a week, so they stay there, and only go home on weekends.
There will also be a business opportunity for someone to buy up RVs when they become too expensive to drive, relocate them to a place within walking distance of large factories and office parks, and rent them out by the week (or rent the space to workers who have RVs). They will have to work out sewage, water & electric (PV or wind generator opportunity?) hookups, and get around local zoning laws, but most likely they will just set up in the places that allow it. The ones that don't will just see their major employers die for lack of skilled workers that can make the commute.
"So, after today's numbers, the situation looks worse."
Can't agree with you here Robert. It's not the end of the world if we go into the driving season below the average range.
As I noted a couple of weeks ago, over the last five years May is normally when the largest uplift in demand occurs, and the question was whether we could get stocks to materially build this month. Today showed that despite earlier fears, high prices have attracted extra imports and consequently we've had a stock build with refinery utilization still sub-90%.
I'm not saying things look fine now - stocks are still very low and there's likely to be a permanent threat of a price spike right through summer. But contrary to what has been reported by many media outlets, high prices do now seem to be curtailing demand enough to relieve the situation (I think we need one more week to be sure, and it might require a few more cents yet).
No way are we out of the woods, but I don't see how you can say things are worse.
Can't agree with you here Robert. It's not the end of the world if we go into the driving season below the average range.
What I mean is that we are even more likely to go into summer with record low inventories. We did not attain the average build that would have been required to avoid record low inventories.
Obviously, things could have been worse. They could have reported a draw. But note that I am not just talking about being below the average range. I am talking about record low inventory levels (and an even worse situation with respect to days of supply).
......record low inventories, and record high demand, despite record high prices
"......record low inventories, and record high demand, despite record high prices"
This has got to be the most portentous sentence fragment ever on TOD.
Can we say inelastic demand?
Yes, something else will be demand destroyed...dinners out, toys, lawn care, visits to the dentist...
In many ways, the build is bad news as WT(and others) point out, prices will not rise high enough and fast enough to effectively demand destroy gas usage, just cut a little further into discretionary spending.
But, I don't wish bad things on anyone so we will call it good news.
How about most of Africa?
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3016&art_id=vn200705091...
Oh yes...I agree. But I think we are on the verge of moving beyond Africa.
And, I was referring to gasoline prices in the US specfically due to inventories.
I was thinking about this this morning (while riding my bike to work).
The price of gasoline will not rise fast enough, or perhaps ever high enough, to stop 'us' from consuming every drop possible.
The whole 'market' dynamic seems to insure that whatever amount of oil (thus gasoline) the world produces, it remains just affordable enough to someone to get consumed.
How will we ever conserve in such a system? If they drill it we will buy. And by the way, the "don't buy gas day" boycott is about the stupidest thing I've ever heard of.
I just don't see how, given the world we live in, how we won't burn every barrel of oil and every chunk of coal.
A corollary to what you say is that we will conserve as much as we need to to keep gasoline affordable, but not a drop more. Under this scenario, conservation is the new "swing producer." I don't know if I believe this or not, but I've recently started thinking that this might be happening on some level.
inelstic demand, addiction, whatever. when they stop eating to get their fix, we will know that it is truely an addiction.
No - they need their fix to keep eating. Utterly rational.
Car=job=credit card=food. If you take away the car, there is no way to work and possess credit, which means no food.
Addictions are in the mind, after all.
The frightening part in much of the U.S., is that the last two generations of suburbia have ruined much of North America's most fertile land. If you live in Fairfax City, Virginia reaching anywhere with agriculture is at least a day away by foot. And there are now hundreds of thousands people around you.
The problem with food is a lot closer than many people realize, if there is a very serious disruption of fuel supplies in the United States.
"I am talking about record low inventory levels (and an even worse situation with respect to days of supply)."
Exactly, until inventories increase significantly, we are on a tightrope, ready to fall off at any moment.
Better than expected result again this week (despite refinery utilization not climbing much) - mainly due to the import cavalry arriving.
Gasoline demand held up pretty well considering retail prices were on the way to all-time nominal highs, but it certainly looks as if there's been some demand response. It will make all the difference if demand now stays close to last year's levels.
Region-wise, Gulf Coast (PADD III) stocks rose by 1.4 mb and West Coast (PADD V) by 1.2 mb, whereas East Coast (PADD I) fell by 0.7 mb and Midwest (PADD II) by 0.3 mb.