DrumBeat: June 8, 2007
Posted by Leanan on June 8, 2007 - 9:13am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Think a GMC Yukon Hybrid sounds silly? It can save more gas than a Civic Hybrid.Outrage. Disbelief. Downright disgust. Those were readers' reactions to our recent story about 13 great fuel efficient cars, which featured several trucks and SUVs.
Many of the emails went something like this: "Did you sell your soul to Detroit? Since when is 16/24 'great' fuel-efficiency?"
Honda Civic tops teen driver list
SUVs are becoming less popular among teen drivers and performance cars don't make the list.
Thousands of rig hands in Western Canada are waiting for callbacks from their drilling-company employers, but industry observers say the high Canadian dollar and a crash in the royalty trust and junior part of the oilpatch mean they could be idle for a long time.
Iraq: Pipeline Strike Reaching Crisis Point
The Iraqi military has surrounded striking oil workers in southern Iraq, labor organizers report, as the workers’ remained defiant in their action to block strategic pipelines near Basra.Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has vowed a harsh response as the shutdown’s effects begin to ripple through Iraqi markets, and at least one neighboring province braces for worsening fuel shortages.
Garrison Keillor: Making a case for simple life in a small town
You look at the Amish and you see the past, but you might also be looking at the future. Our great-grandchildren, faced with facts their ancestors were able to ignore, might have to do without the internal-combustion engine and figure out how to live the subsistence life. Maybe someone will invent a car that runs on hydrogen or horse manure, or maybe people will travel on beams of light like in old radio serials, but the realist in you thinks otherwise.
Azerbaijan Announces Oil Reserves
The resource-rich Caspian Sea nation of Azerbaijan has an estimated 1.35 billion metric tons (9.45 billion barrels) of proven oil reserves, a top official in the state oil company SOCAR said Thursday.
Dave Cohen: The little sheikdom that could
Middle East proved oil reserves numbers are suspect. Each country's estimates made questionable leaps in the past, and then remained constant, all the while disregarding all the oil produced over the years. Qatar provides the most recent example. Examining this small sheikdom's reserve numbers underscores some of the problems in assessing the world's proved oil stocks. Qatar could take a step toward resolving this uncertainty by allowing an independent audit of their reserves numbers. They seem to have little to hide.
Iran Seeks to Undermine U.S. Energy Plan for Europe
Iran plans to import more oil and gas from Central Asia as it seeks to undermine a U.S.-backed project to build pipelines from the Caspian Sea to Europe.
US House Panel OKs Bill to Force Renegotiation of Oil Leases
The U.S. House of Representatives' Appropriations Committee approved an amendment Thursday to an Interior budget bill that would require oil companies to renegotiate 1998-99 lease contracts that neglected price thresholds to obtain future exploration leases.The Government Accountability Office estimates that around $1 billion in royalties have already been lost as a result of the omission, and could cost tax payers an additional $9 billion in future royalties.
CNBC's Yergin: What the U.S. Can Learn From Brazil About Ethanol
Brazil is ahead of the US but not in terms of volumes. The U.S. produces more, and output is growing fast. But Brazil is ahead in terms of experience -- 30 years of commercial activity-- and cost. It's great advantage is that it is by far the low-cost producer.
IOI's Lee Shin Cheng is a master at squeezing every drop from his vast plantations. The craze for biofuels is driving up prices, but caution is the watchword at this Malaysian company.
This morning I sat down with the founders of the Arava Power Company. Yossi Abramowitz is a bespectacled American-born Israeli with plenty of hair. Suleiman Halasah is from Karak, Jordan, and his shaved head is not framed by glasses. At Kibbutz Ketura, a cooperative agricultural settlement and renewables laboratory in southern Israel’s Arava Valley, Suleiman lives with his “kibbutz father” Yossi as both work on a bi-national solar power project with major profit potential.
Greenest energy is energy saved
There is a quicker, cheaper and more effective way of reducing carbon dioxide emissions that can be applied right now: energy-efficient technologies that are commercially available and proven. Energy efficiency is the low-hanging fruit in the campaign to protect the environment because the technologies exist and we know the savings they will deliver.
Top CEOs Release Energy ‘Blueprint’
Business Roundtable, an association of 160 CEOs of leading U.S. companies, has released an energy plan calling for a more diversified and domestic-based energy supply mix, increased energy efficiency and greater investment in new energy technologies.
Biofuels no threat to Opec, says IEA
Biofuels will provide only a small proportion of the world’s demand for fuel in the next decade, the developed countries’ energy watchdog has said in an attempt to reassure Opec that the need for oil will continue to grow.
Africa: Rwandan President Unveils Biggest Solar Energy Plant on Continent
As Rwanda marks 25 years of cooperation with the Federal State of Rhineland Palatinate of Germany, President Paul Kagame yesterday inaugurated Africa's biggest solar energy plant. The infrastructure, which is installed at Jali hill in Gasabo District, was funded by the German state through a company called Stadtwerke Mainz and Rhineland Palatinate citizens to the tune of Euro one million (approx. Frw700m).
Investors in 'fuel-from-algae' scheme left high and dry
De Beers Fuel, which had promised South Africa biodiesel produced from algae, to date seems not to have made good on any of its pledges.Most investors in the company, who invested up to R6-million each in biodiesel plant, in what was trumpeted to be the world’s first fuel-franchising scheme, today have nothing but paper to show for their money.
As far as Engineering News can establish, not one plant has been built.
Lisa Margonelli: Time to shift gears, step on gas myths
Whew, gas prices are high. Higher than they've ever been. During the week of May 21, the Lundberg Survey, a biweekly gas price tracking service, put the average cost of a gallon of unleaded at $3.18. Adjusted for inflation, that topped the 1981 price spike that had held the record for 26 years. Prices have since slipped a bit, but many predict they'll stay up near the stratosphere all summer. Wondering why? The answers may not be what you think. Here are five common myths about why we're paying so much at the pump.
Nigeria: We′ll Shut Down the Economy, Says NLC
Labour unions yesterday called for mass protests and strikes for as long as it takes to get the government to withdraw what it calls "anti-people policies".The Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), warned Nigerians to start stockpiling food and carry out bank transactions before the strikes come into effect on June 18.
They want the government to return Value Added Tax to 5 per cent, reduce the price of fuel, rescind the sale of refineries, stop the sack of civil servants and pay those who have already been sacked their severance pay.
Four Companies to Jointly Work on Gulf of Mexico Pipeline Repairs
Four companies that work in the Gulf of Mexico oilfield have formed a partnership they say will allow them to dramatically expedite deepwater pipeline repairs after a hurricane or other emergency, though the equipment won't be available for this storm season.
Drought endangers crops and electric supply
Unless South Carolina sees some serious rain soon, farmers and power customers will be paying the price.
As interest in biodiesel to fuel vehicles and heat homes and businesses in Maryland grows, the state is ramping up efforts to make the alternative renewable fuel more accessible to the public and less expensive.
Is America Headed for a Food Shortage?
A new study suggests that ethanol production could drive up corn prices, leaving U.S. grains and meat in short supply
House Appropriations Panel Rejects Expanding OCS Gas Drilling
The U.S. House Appropriations Committee Thursday rejected a proposal that would open up more of the U.S.'s Outer Continental Shelf to natural gas exploration and development.By a vote of 39 to 25, the panel voted down an amendment by Rep. John Peterson, R-Penn., to end the moratorium on drilling for natural gas exploration beyond 25 miles off the coasts of the United States.
Trinidad-Tobago: Fuel shortage grounds TnT Express
Passengers had purchased tickets for the 12 pm sailing. However, at 2.24 pm the passengers had not yet boarded. Passengers who travelled from Rio Claro and Penal waited for five hours before the authorities offered an explanation. Passengers heard over the public sound system that the ferry did not have any fuel and steps were being made to have fuel sent from NP’s Pointe-a- Pierre service station.
Gasoline and food supplies running low
BC, CANADA - Gas pumps were dry and some grocery shelves empty in the city on Thursday as Highway 16 remained closed in both directions due to flooding."We have run out of gas," read the signs Shell gas station manager Brenda Kinney posted over her pumps Wednesday evening.
...She explained the Petro-Can had just run out, and the Esso station was saving its fuel for emergency vehicles only.
British Airways increases fuel surcharge again
Customers will pay an extra £5 on one-way long-haul trips, taking the surcharge to £38 for flights under nine hours and £43 for longer flights.This is the second rise that the airline has announced in six weeks and the seventh in about two years.
Utilities, Miners Bitterly Divided on Uranium Price Rise
It lacked the body slams of a WWF wrestling championship, but the World Nuclear Fuel Market conference, held this past week in Athens (Greece), emphasized the bitter divisions between uranium buyers and sellers. Underlying the gentility often found in a typical major mining executive and his utility counterpart, spectators witnessed verbal fencing, if not articulated pugilism, during some of the less self-centered presentations.
Gazprom desperately needs to invest massive amounts of capital into mitigating production declines at its existing properties. Companies that provide drilling services, drilling equipment, and enhanced recovery technology stand to benefit. At first glance, many would say that this projection going out to the year 2020 is too pessimistic since it doesn’t include much of a bump from potential future discoveries.This may be true, but in order to bring potential discoveries into production, Russian operators will require more drilling and more rig equipment. It’s not a stretch to assume that the Russian rig fleet is old, overtaxed, and must be refurbished in order to accomplish a very busy future.
Perhaps Mr. Badri can explain to us how the private companies might invest and presumably operate in a group of countries that, with few exceptions, prohibit such activities. For now, however, I'm treating this latest surprise from the cartel as yet another indication that mankind's ability to keep up with global energy demand in the coming years is anything but guaranteed.
The challenges for the natural resource sector in the 21st century are numerous and closely interrelated. They include: macroeconomic conditions (terms of trade, investment regimes), climate change, high consumption rates, peak oil, energy security, social and environmental impacts, corruption, human rights abuses, and conflict resources.
Visclosky bill ups funding for new energy research
With gas prices hovering at record levels, U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-1st, is using his position as chair of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development to address this nation’s energy needs, a statement released by his office on Wednesday said.In his energy and water appropriations bill, Visclosky has boosted funding for investments in biofuels, vehicle technologies, renewable energies, and energy efficiency, the statement said.
China grants three firms oil products wholesale license
The ministry said in a statement that the two Sinopec joint venture companies to win oil product wholesale rights are Fujian Petrochemical Co, which is in partnership with ExxonMobil Corp and Saudi Aramco, as well as their marketing joint ventures.The third company is Langfang Rongli Oil Storage Co based in northern China's Hebei province, it said.
Pakistan: Citizens and traders protest power outages
Protests against power outages continued on Thursday as citizens and traders took to the streets in various parts of the city.After an eight-hour long power outage, Tariq Road shopkeepers closed their shops at 3 p.m. and marched towards the Dubai Shopping Center where they staged a sit-in and blocked access to Tariq Road for over three hours. The protesters shouted slogans against the KESC and demanded an immediate solution to the electricity problem.
Cyclone Gonu wanes after slamming Oman and Iran
Oman's Mina al Fahal oil terminal resumed operations after a three-day closure after tests on the pipes. Petroleum Development Oman said on Thursday that operations and facilities had escaped damage.PDO, a majority state-owned firm, produces most of Oman's crude. PDO expects its output to decline by around 20,000 bpd this year to between 560,000 and 570,000.
The main liquefied natural gas terminal at Sur, which was badly hit, was not operating, a shipper said. Sur terminal handles 10 million tonnes per year of LNG.
Drought, a fixture in much of the West for nearly a decade, now covers more than one-third of the continental USA. And it's spreading.
Prices at pump stinging retailers
Wal-Mart and its customers are hurting as high gas prices hit the world's largest retailer harder than almost any other retailer.
How Oil Companies Saved the Electric Car
Outrageous gas prices and worldwide concern about global warming have spurred a new wave of automakers to make the long-awaited dream of practical -- and yes, stylish -- electric vehicles a reality. These green machines will soon be coming to a showroom near you.
Oil Pipeline Politics Steadily Intensifies
While the "mission was accomplished" in a manner not befitting the planners of "shock and awe," a new and aggressive search for incremental and secure energy supplies continue all around. This energy-rich region continues to enjoy the global focus, yet other energy rich areas could now increasingly be witnessed on the global radar screen.The craving to dominate these new emerging areas also could be deciphered all around. Indeed when Michael Collon said, "If you want to rule the world, you need to control oil, all the oil, anywhere," he has a point.
US oil company abandons Venezuela
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has said a US oil company has abandoned oil wells in Venezuela during his nationalization drive this year...."There is one Yankee company that left and left the wells abandoned," Chavez said at a political event with university students, without naming any company.
Hong Kong winters may vanish in 50 years: weather expert
Hong Kong's winters could vanish within 50 years, with the number of cold days declining virtually to zero due to global warming and urbanization, the head of the city's weather observatory warned on Friday.
President Bush has now finally moved beyond denial on climate change. But his proposal for a conference of 15 of the biggest greenhouse gas emitters can hardly be called global leadership. It pins its hopes on wishful technological breakthroughs and sidesteps mandatory ceilings.
A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
excuse me as .
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Now everyone, this is why subsidies do not work, some enterprising individual will be able to make big money exploiting the edge cases.
The article on drought was interesting. We consider the opposite of drought to be the norm because it suits our needs. In an area that receives more than enough rainfall for our purposes, a drought is a relief.
When Boeing [BOEing?] designs an aircraft it designs for the worst case; extreme turbulence, hard landing, etc, but we seem to be designing our living sytstems for the optimum and calling the outliers a disaster.
In 1857 a surveyor named Palliser recommended that the Canadian Pacific Railway be run through Edmonton as the land futher south was totally dessicated and agriculturally unuseable. It was referred to as Palliser's Triangle. When the line came through in the 1880s Palliser was written off as wrong and the line went through Calgary instead. By 1932 they discovered what he had been referring to.
While it is simplistic to attach a pattern to the phenomenon, if there is one we should be about to experience it. Maybe it's every seven sunspot cycles or whatever. Regardless, I'm not surprised nor would Palliser be. GW will no doubt be the bogeyman as it seems to have become for every other weather 'event' these days.
What is more disconcerting is the possibility that the snow lines are moving further up the mountains. When your water supply is dependent upon mountain runoff and you are getting even the same depth of snow on a smaller cone on a consistent basis, then you are in serious long term trouble.
Meanwhile British Columbia has a major flood problem due to heavier snowpacks in the north and west. It looks as though a persistent high over the US west diverted the wet lows over northern BC. A 120 foot diameter pipeline to Utah would be nice about now.
Re: From Russia With Love
Note that this chart shows declining natural gas production. It does not show the much sharper drop in net gas exports, i.e., the Export Land Model.
In North America, we are looking at a similar situation regarding Canadian natural gas exports.
The article has a "nice" graph for US natural gas as well:
For more excellent coverage of Gazprom troubles, see also the Bloomberg piece that Whiskey and Gunpowder refers to:
Gazprom May Thwart Putin Drive for Russian Energy Dominance
The situation in Canada is similarly bleak. The National Energy Board is no better at forecasting than the EIA.
Canadian wells peak quickly and decline at an alarming rate. The NEB is suggesting we will have flat NG production with a small YoY increase from CTL.
Meanwhile, the MacKenzie pipeline is stalled, the government has put an end to the favorable tax structure the NG producers relied on, new NG is stranded in difficult terrain, costs are skyrocketing due to the tar sands, and drillers are idle this year.
My spouse is in Ft. McMurray this week on a federal government fact finding mission. She has met with oil industry executives, community groups, native groups, provincial and municipal leaders. Her focus is primarily on the municipal situation, which frankly, appears to be a disaster.
When she gets back I'll write up anything she shares with me.
Thus far, I've learned that the average income in Ft. McMurray is $81,000 and the poverty line is $71,000. Some days the local schools have to shut down due to the strong odors from the tar sands.
The most amazing thing to me about the tar sands play are the huge, virtually permanent, wastewater ponds, filled with contaminated oily wastewater. No one I know in the Texas oil patch would do that for two reasons: (1) It's irresponsible and (2) The regulatory authorities wouldn't let us do it anyway.
Good article by Byron King (2006 ASPO-USA) on the Tar Sands Play: http://www.energybulletin.net/22358.html
olol 25km^2 of tailing ponds!
John,
Could you email me at Stoneleigh2006(at)msn(dot)com please?
Thanks
I would like to draw your attention to a post of mine last April 28th.
I know of an Alberta utility that would be willing to install and maintain the electrical infrastructure and sell "power at the wire". Perhaps Phase II, Edmonton to Ft. McMurray could be Phase I ?
My eMail address is Alan_Drake at Juno dott com.
Best Hopes for Electrified Transportation solutions,
Alan
Some sort of mass transit is needed. Highway 63 is bumper to bumper. The current plan is to double it. My spouse was very impressed with the mayor. Perhaps she will be willing to put you in touch with her and the two of you can take it from there.
Stoneleigh, give me a few days and the three of us can get together. I'll email next week.
Right now, I have to go pick her up at the airport. Spent the morning cleaning the house :)
Alan,
Regenerative braking with trains and hills? Does regererative braking already exist such as in MAX our light rail?
It is more or less standard on modern light rail lines. But I am not sure about MAX. Stops are the biggest source of regenerated power.
Portland Streetcar did not have it at first but they were talking about adding it during a tour I was on.
Best Hopes for Energy Efficiency,
Alan
Dave Cohen's keypost "Running With The Red Queen", on this site about 6 months ago, covered this issue very thoroughly.
The fast decline rate coupled with the drilling slowdown this year is why I expect gas prices will go through the roof if a hurricane hits the central/northwest quadrants of the Gulf of Mexico, and probably by next winter anyway. The Rigzone survey linked on this site a couple of days ago said that most oil companies were expecting the same-prices of between $10-$15 mmbtu over the next five years, contrasted with the current price of $8 mmbtu.
Looking at this NG graph it seems pretty obvious that is a big difference between the pre-1990 well production rates and today's well production rate...
But WHY are they different?
Does the mechanics of the well or pipeline connections just let the gas flow faster?
Are the deposits just that much smaller?
Or does the "Pre-1990" portion of the graph just contain so many years worth of wells all lumped together that the all the skinny little tails join together to make a more healthy looking long-term flow than from the 1 year sections?
Greg in MO
Yes, I think so. The lowest-hanging fruit is picked first.
The flow of a gas through rock is much different than the flow of a viscous fluid, with the consistency between motor oil (good) and cold syrup (not so good).
Hopes that helps,
Alan
Speaking of Russian gas....
I am puzzled that the issue of Russian gas to Europe has not been brought up in the context of the recent brouhaha about NATO putting missiles in Poland and Czech Republic. Why can't Putin simply tell these countries, "You get missiles, you get no gas."
He can but that means lost revenue for himself as well. It is far better for him that he "play the game" by trying to negotiate and after all that fails, when he finally does take action it can be seen as caused by the American position.
If the US & NATO are truly concerned about rogue mideast states launching missiles, then Putin's newly proposed location for an anti-missile shield makes perfect sense. So there is that angle for Putin as well - if a missile shield gets built and actually works, he may want his nation shielded too.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
If the US & NATO are truly concerned about rogue mideast states launching missiles,...
Impossible. No one is worried about Iranian or N Korean missiles. It would be instant suicide for Iran even if she were so inclined, but there is zero evidence that she is. That N Korea even gets mentioned in a European military context shows how unreal the whole thing is.
I don't understand all the nuances of the games being played. But they are dangerous, maybe more so than during the old Cold War.
Note the qualifier "if"... I don't believe the US and NATO are thinking seriously about rogue state missiles as much as they are thinking about Russian missiles but they don't want to admit that.
Consider several facts. First, Russia had a working ABM system that ringed Moscow under the old ABM treaty. It was rather brute force but it probably would have worked. It used, as I recall, nuclear warheads to destroy incoming nuclear warheads. The amount of fallout from such an action at high altitude would have been nearly zero. Of course there would have been EMP, etc., but Russia probably figured it would be easier to replace electronics than completely rebuild a destroyed city. So Russia has prior experience with working ABM systems.
Next consider how you would react if you believed that the anti-missile system would not work. Your opponent would be blowing a huge wad of resources and capital on a useless white elephant so you would want to find ways to encourage that since resources spent on the white elephant project are resources that are not spent on projects that might truly threaten Russia. But Russia has not acted like that. Instead Russia, probably based on their prior ABM experience, sees this as a threat to them.
Now how could this threat manifest itself? If Europe felt that it's well-being was threatened by Russian activity in the energy market, NATO might declare such actions as hostile. Well, lo and behold, NATO has already done exactly that. And that might lead (not immediately but ultimately) to military confrontation with Russia.
Well the problem then is that Russia has all these missiles, don't they? So to make the possibility of a war against Russia winnable, you need your missile shield so that both your conventional forces and your nuclear forces can be used concurrently (or threaten to be used) against Russia.
This appears to me to be the general train of thought in the Bush administration and in western Europe regarding foreign policy towards Russia. I think it is wrong, bone-headed, and extremely dangerous but hey, I am not the guy in the White House so my opinion doesn't matter very much.
In fact, IF the US and NATO were worried about rogue Middle East missiles disrupting Europe's economy then it becomes almost a mandatory thing to include Russia behind the missile shield to ensure the safety of Europe's energy supplies, doesn't it?
So no, I don't believe the official line on this and yes, I agree they are playing some very dangerous game, probably something along the lines that I have outlined above. And this may be why Putin has responded as he has. Russia probably rightly now sees itself as a major factor in Europe's overall economy even if it has not been offered NATO membership. And thus, by that reasoning, it deserves the same shield if one is going to be built. And contrariwise, if a shield is built that excludes Russia then I must conclude that the shield is against Russia as well as any other named threat.
And strangely enough, even though I am an American, I agree with that position.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Putin has responded as he has because he understands that ABM systems are essentially offensive systems. They make it so that if you attack, targeting the other side’s retaliatory force, you are able to use the ABM system to handle the few missiles that survive.
The ABM system does not do you much good as a defensive system. If a major power attacked first, they could easily overwhelm your ABM system. If a rouge state attacked first, they would be much more likely to use a sneak attack so that you might not know against whom to retaliate. Like put it on a third country freighter and sail into New York harbor. The idea that such a country would initiate a direct missile attack from their territory against a US or allied target is not credible. But if Bush wanted to preserve the ability to attack Iran, having an ABM system would potentially help a lot.
Putin is right about the placement. In Central Europe, we are threatening him. In the Caucasus, we could only use it again countries in the Middle East. I think it is clear to Putin that that is why Bush will not go along with his idea but it is good for Putin to call Bush on it.
"ABM systems are essentially offensive systems. They make it so that if you attack, targeting the other side’s retaliatory force, you are able to use the ABM system to handle the few missiles that survive."
This works only if the other side doesn't have the same thing.
If they do, then an opponent's ABM system then the certainty of completing an attack to successfully remove the other side's retaliatory force is far diminished. Of course both sides have submarines too.
Let's come back to the big picture.
Russia is pursuing and building a new, modern strategic nuclear weapons system with improved capability---and now threatening Europe with it.
The U.S. hasn't done so since the (supposed?) end of the cold war.
Their existing Topol-M missiles are already better than any missile the US has, and the new missiles they are building will be better still.
Amazing that people can believe Putin's disingenuous crap.
Now, I believe that the US ABM is probably an enormous waste of money.
Unfortunately the new Russian missiles are likely to work very well.
Hundreds of half a megaton nukes are genocidal insanity whoever has them.
I think Russia itself is the prize, and has been for 150 years. At 17 million square kilometers, it is almost 12% of the world's land area. If you count the breakaway Central Asian republics, it was much more than that.
Before the invention of the railroad, Russia was too vast to be an imperial prize worth conquering, even if your armies could march halfway around the world, how would you bring that wealth back home? Want to ride a horse from Venice to Mongolia? Takes a special kind of people to do that.
We here all know that the Persian Gulf wars are about oil and natural gas, as well as the strategic position of the lands in question.
I think it is a mistake to think that the US Government is securing those lovely fossil fuels for the benefit of its people. It wants them for the political leverage it gives them in Europe, Japan, and China.
If I were making a documentary, I would start with a cold war map of the USSR, including Eastern Europe. Lots of red countries, with a bunch of blue countries (the "free world"). Then I would show the map after the collapse of the USSR: Eastern Europe becomes pink, then pale blue, then bits of it become dark blue. Parts of Central Asia become pink, then pale blue. I suppose you would technicaly color Afghanistan and Iraq dark blue, but they seem to be getting paler all the time. Egypt was probably pink years back, but is a pale blue. Moving the Ukraine from red to pink to pale blue is an enormous victory for the blue team.
Instead of red forces in Eastern Europe pointing at the blue countries, you have blue forces there pointing back at Russia. All without a thermonuclear war.
The Great Game.
Now there are (or are going to be) anti-missile-missiles in Eastern Europe. This gives two chances to shoot down a Russian missile. Once there (best), once again as it reaches the US (not as good).
Shooting down a handful of missiles is truely a useful defense against a North Korea, who can only manage to fire a handful. It is only an inconvience to a massively armed Russia.
Shooting down a substantial fraction of the Russian missile force is a different matter. You can expect to take out a large fraction of the Russian missile force with a first strike. Your anti-missile defenses only need to take out a majority of the missiles that survive.
We move from Mutually Assured Destruction to a "winnable" first strike capability.
They probably think they can dominate Russia once both sides realize the situation.
I don't think so. But hey, I'm not in the White House either.
This is also why I am convinced we will invade Iran, suicidal as it seems. Without it on the blue side, the encirclement is incomplete, and the US does not have the energy resources to hold Europe and Japan.
I was just reading Totoneilla's Post Peak Toilet Paper Dillema (PPTPD) in yesterdays' drumbeat.
I suggest wiping your ass with your left hand, and eating with your right hand, which is common practise in Indonesia where toiletpaper is rare.
Ahem, I found that a little to anal for my taste.
Many cultures have followed this same convention. In many of these cultures, the penalty for serious thievery was chopping off the right hand, which meant no access to the communal food bowl...
Corn cobs don't sound particularly, well, comfortable. Plenty of nice big leaves around here - just mind the poison ivy! Yow!
John Jeavons who has been researching sustainable food production in Willits, CA for 30 years mentioned at a workshop that they haven't been able to come up with a sustainable alternative to toilet paper.
Is this really all that different from the diaper problem? What would people do if Pampers were history? They'll go back to 100% cotton cloth diapers of course, and have fun hand washing them the old way. Cut up some smallish squares of cloth, store them in the same hamper when used, launder them the same way. This isn't exactly a problem of petroleum engineering complexity, you know!
In most of the world, where there are no disposable diapers, childern are 98% potty trained by 1 year but even before that, mothers intuitively "know" when the child has to go and take them to the appropriate place.
There is a very small but growing "diaper free" movement in this country. Our daughter was fully trained at 18 months but did 95% poop and 70% pee in a potty at 6 months. Many adults consider early potty training to be a form of child abuse. Mostly though, it just involves letting them go naked from the waist down and paying close attention to their signals. After a week or so, everyone gets the hang of it. It works. Diapers are a luxury.
I read that article in the NY Times about that. It said that many Americans adopting children from overseas are amazed to find their infants already toilet trained, when only a few months or even only a few weeks old.
Of course, it's gone the opposite way here in the U.S. A couple of generations ago, it was unheard for kids to be still wearing diapers at age 3. Now it is common, because parents are too busy to toilet train their kids, let alone "listen to their signals."