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Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?
Posted by jeffvail on September 10, 2007 - 9:50am
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: cantarell, geopolitics, mexico, pemex [list all tags]
(Repromoted due to today's explosions in Pemex's pipelines and JHK's story and link to us today...originally posted 7/12/07)
In my annual new years predictions, I said that the most significant, and surprising, development of 2007 would be the collapse of both Mexico’s economy and its very existence as a viable Nation-State. While there hasn’t been a spectacular, single event confirming my prediction, there has been a steady erosion on all fronts—with five months left in the year, I’m not yet willing to push back my prediction of Mexico’s “collapse” to 2008. The decline of the Mexican Nation-State is a bellwether for the massively complex network of geopolitical influences sometimes termed above ground factors. It provides some insight into how symptoms of oil scarcity already being felt in poorer parts of the world will increasingly spill over into our own back yard…
UPDATE: After I wrote this story (July 7th), things took a serious turn for the worse with a series of rebel attacks on Mexican oil infrastructure: Bloomberg, Forbes (research credit: Dantes Peak).
Before I highlight the specific events that are undermining the Mexican Nation-State, let me talk first for a moment about what it means for a Nation-State to collapse, an important topic as it’s an experience that will become increasingly common over the next decade. When a Nation-State collapses, the cities don’t all catch on fire simultaneously whilst roving hoards pillage the countryside and the population starves. Nation-State collapse is not the apocalypse—it is exactly what it suggests to be: the collapse of the notional union of Nation and State under one central, viable government. Nation-State collapse also doesn’t suggest that there will no longer be Nation-States. It is my prediction that there will be a Mexico, an Iraq, etc. for quite a long time. What collapse does mean is that the importance of Nation-States will decline sharply, as they become increasingly ineffectual both domestically and internationally. Nor does the decline of the Nation-State mean the decline of Nationalism and similar identifying sentiments. Quite the opposite: as States increasingly fail to care for their constituent Nations, those Nations will become increasingly susceptible to the black shirts and brown shirts of history, but these movements will be increasingly dissociated from States, more similar in organizational model to al-Qa’ida than to Nazi Germany. (See The New Map, a paper that I presented at the 2006 Yale International Law Conference, for an overview of this notion of the end of the Nation-State)
Mexico’s Oil Production is Collapsing
Production from Mexico’s Cantarell field is collapsing, and production from new fields are not making up the difference. It appears very likely that Mexico has permanently passed its peak oil production. On top of that, domestic consumption is rising, creating the classic Export Land effect: declining production and rising domestic consumption equal accelerated declines in exports. Taxes from these export revenues generate the largest share of revenue for the federal government. Recent reductions in the tax rate that the government applies to PEMEX, the state oil company, shows that this key source of revenue is failing. The collapse of Mexican oil production has been extensively discussed elsewhere—here it is only my aim to highlight this as a component in the collapse of the Mexican Nation-State, and the positive feedback loops between the two events.
Mexico’s National and State Boundaries are Separating
The core proposition of a Nation-State is that the boundaries of the Nation and the State will coincide, allowing the State to effectively provide for the security and welfare of the Nation, and leading in return to the Nation giving their allegiance to the State (See Philip Bobbitt's "Shield of Achilles," the seminal work on the Nation-State construct). While no Nation-State is a perfect example of this ideal, Mexico’s proximity to enticing US labor markets, and the resulting massive emigration of Mexicans, is increasingly distorting this overlap. While “Mexico” remains a powerful cultural concept, that concept is increasingly dissociated with the geographic borders of the Mexican state. People can be wholly “Mexican” in Los Angeles, or, increasingly, Alabama.
The State of Mexico is Failing to Provide for its Nation
While the dissociation of the boundaries of a Nation with the borders of a State makes it more difficult for a notional Nation-State to provide for that part of its Nation outside its State borders, Mexico is also failing to provide for its nationals inside its borders. Recent protests over tortilla prices are just one example of the extreme poverty suffered by much of the nation (and, not entirely coincidentally, largely the result of scarcity in global oil markets driving demand for corn-ethanol). Similarly, while the average Mexican’s wealth is increasing, there are shadow factors at work—people like the Mexican businessman Carlos Slim, now the richest man in the world at $68 Billion net worth, are skewing the statistics. Without remittance payments from emigrants, Mexico's poverty situation would be far worse. When a State can no longer provide for its Nation, there is no longer any incentive for that Nation to voluntarily give allegiance and support to their State. The only remaining tool to exert control is coercion through a State’s theoretical monopoly on violence, and in Mexico even that is breaking down.
Mexico’s Monopoly on Violence is Collapsing
Not that Mexico was ever a poster-child for civic safety and effective policing, but the situation has grown considerably worse in the past year. There are mass desertions among the federal police. Outright infantry battles between crime organizations and the government are becoming a common occurrence. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of police, judges, government officials, and reporters have been assassinated over the past few years. What control the federal government continues to exercise in states such as Sonora, Sinaloa, and Nuevo Leon is mainly due to the fact that crime organizations don’t want to actually take over the territory—they already experience the benefits of acting as a sovereign government without the burdens, and they’re happy to leave those burdens to the “official” government.
Can Mexico Protect Its Oil Infrastructure?
Mexico's increasing inability to deal with drug violence within its own borders begs the question: can Mexico protect its oil infrastructure? A string of attacks on Mexican gas pipelines this week suggest that they are ill-prepared for this threat.
Photo: Flames from the attack on a gas pipeline in Queretaro, Mexico illuminate a passing army truck. (AP)
The same profit motivation that increasingly drives attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria and Iraq is tailor-made for the combination of disaffected rebels and powerful criminal organizations that already exist in Mexico. The chief source of revenue from oil attacks in Nigeria is the ransoming of foreign contractors working in the oil sector. The more that Mexico succeeds in modifying its constitution to bring foreign service workers and foreign concession-holders into its oil and gas industry, this same problem could spring up with a fury in Mexico. Similarly, the high return on investment for attacks on Mexico's oil industry make this the most promising target for politically motivated groups. Finally, while "illegal bunkering"--poor consumers stealing various hydrocarbons direct from production pipelines--is not yet a common occurrence in Mexico, "Export-Land" effects will likely make domestic consumers, especially rural and poor consumers, feel a financial crunch that will drive bunkering.
Mexico's military and police forces have, to put it mildly, not demonstrated much competence over the past decades. The same corruption, desertion, and competing interests that are causing the Mexican state to lose its monopoly over violence will prevent Mexico from effectively protecting its oil infrastructure. The simultaneous (and partially resulting) financial crunch will further degrade their ability to respond. How long until we hear that "oil rose in New York today on news of continued attacks on oil facilities in Mexico"??
Collapse is a Positive Feedback Loop
Every one of these factors, individually and in combination, act as positive feedback loops. Collapsing oil production decreases available revenues to reinvest in exploration and delays bringing new fields to production. The comparative success of Mexicans outside of Mexico drives further emigration. Failure of the Mexican government to provide for its people drives more economic activity to the black market, erodes the tax base, and makes taxes more difficult to justify at election time. And failure of the government to provide for fundamental security compels the population to turn to primary loyalties for protection—corrupt local governments, criminal organizations, etc. These factors in combination erode the foundation of the rule of law and the viability of Mexico’s infrastructure network, which in turn puts the brake on foreign investment, tourism, and the ability of legitimate businesses to produce and export goods and services from within Mexico. To the extent that Mexico uses central banking to prop up the peso, it drives a wedge between actual, local economic production and the monetized economy.
Is Mexico a unique case or a bellwether?
In my paper The New Map, I argue that these same factors are eroding the viability of the Nation-State everywhere. The situation in Mexico is exacerbated by reliance on declining oil revenues and proximity to the US. However, the Mexican Nation-State enjoys many advantages: with significant exceptions, indigenous populations are well integrated into Mexican culture; a strong, shared Catholic identity; a rich history as an independent nation; a relatively long period of independence since the end of colonial control. Nigeria, Iraq, and other fragmenting Nation-States would be lucky to have even one of those advantages. Every Nation-State is the product of unique circumstances, but the broader forces undermining the Mexican Nation-State are shared around the world. The decline of the Mexican Nation-State is most visible because of the impact of symptoms of this decline on the US, and the resulting media coverage of these symptoms: America’s “broken borders,” the “war on drugs,” the “outsourcing of America,” and virtually anything else that comes out of Lou Dobbs’ mouth (a “rise” in leprosy due to Mexican immigrants—look out!).
The collapse of the Mexican Nation-State will have serious, negative impacts on global oil markets, on the US economy, and on xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment in the US, not to mention its impacts inside Mexico. It might not happen in 2007—and it certainly won’t occur in one sudden “bang” that can be easily marked on a date in history—but the process is already well under way. On a broader trend, the decline of the Nation-State as a mode of social organization will have profound effects in a post-peak world. In one sense it will cement the inability of Nation-State governments, and international coalitions of governments, to act effectively to address Peak Oil. In another sense, it may facilitate exactly the kind of localization that will be necessary in a low-energy world. Of course, this isn’t a suggestion that the transition will be peaceful, enjoyable, or brief.
Thanks Jeff. An excellent and timely article on the geopolitical and social effects of oil and scarcity. Anecdotally, my wife and I were in Merida, Yucatan for nearly two weeks last year. While there we heard often stories of Mexicans who had moved and were moving from Mexico City to Merida, especially wealthier Mexicans, to get away from the violence and the threat of kidnappings etc. They found Merida to be one of the safest areas in the country. I am sure the overall situation has gotten worse since then
Interesting.
Let's see Mexico's GNP development (from gapminder.org):
Compare it to US oil dollar price (inflation adjusted):
What about Mexico's oil exports (in volume, not in price)?
As long as oil exports from Mexico have remained relatively steady, their GNP average has adjusted roughly as a function of oil price.
As as side note, the income distribution has clearly narrowed as you can see from the income distribution chart:
What happens, when their oil exports start to go down AND oil price keeps going up?
For how long (and by how much) can the rising oil price lessen the effect of diminishing export volumes?
How much of an impact (how fast) does that have on the economy at whole?
Currently oil exports are roughly 11% of Mexico's exports. Exports are 32% of total GDP (source: Economist, 2006).
At what point do they have to cut into to domestic consumption of oil and risk losing economic growth in other sectors?
After facing the reality of ELM, aren't these some of the next question they are asking themselves?
BTW, Mexico has been for some time already trying to encourage growth in exports that are non-oil related. Considering oil was over 70% of their exports at the beginning of 80's, I think they have made nice progress in lessening the impact of oil exports on their economy.
How do you handle the tight coupling with the US ?
Most of the growth can be attributed to moving manufacturing from the US to Mexico. It interesting that even as this happened income became increasingly concentrated. I'm not sure you can easily consider the Mexican economy decoupled from the US. Now assuming a tight coupling and also expecting the US to enter at least a mild recession soon one would expect this coupling to not help.
So even though it exists and is a big complication for considering Mexico as and independent Oil Exporter we expect it to turn down at the same time so maybe it can be dismissed since at best it will be and additional negative factor.
Canada is in the same economic boat in a lot of ways as Mexico so I don't see this tight economic coupling as a positive as the US economy itself stumbles.
As long as the US economy was booming however it did hide or delay the effects of ELM. In any case ELM is not exactly correct for tightly coupled economies but unless you can show the other economy will remain robust it seems to me that at best it delays ELM's economic effects.
I just realized that the obvious pumping of the housing bubble by the US well beyond reason is probably the only thing that kept the effects of ELM on Mexico from becoming obvious. So I wonder how much keeping Mexico afloat played into supporting the housing bubble? Mexico was a huge beneficiary of the bubble probably the largest. If you look at the numbers the US housing bubble is responsible for keeping the Mexican economy going over the last few years.
Interesting.
You talk about Wealthy Mexicans moving away to avoid violence. Just the point missed by Jeff. There is a Class War, a Civil War, taking place in Mexico as we speak; sparked by pre-national election violence, election fraud, and now violent oppression of the working class and unions by an illegitimate government installed by the powers that be, against the will(and vote) of the Mexican people. The people of Mexico are now fighting against that usurpation of power, including the bombing of pipelines. This is not being done by a small group of terrorists as they would like you to believe. This is a national uprising that will have long term consequences for the United States, where there appears to be a conspiracy of silence among the media.
http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/35311.html
Another truth respecting the vigilance with which a free people should guard their liberty, that deserves to be carefully observed, is this--that a real tyranny may prevail in a state, while the forms of a free constitution remain.
Jeff,
Excellent analysis of the forces at work in the
contemporary international system. I'm assuming this
is part of a larger, to-be-published work. I'll look
forward to reading it and I'll have to pick up your
book too.
One question - what's your take on the increasing use
of contractor/mercenary forces by all the Western
states, but especially the US? Looking at Iraq it
it seems to me that the proportion of contractor to
citizen soldiers hasn't been this high in a western
army for quite some time. You probably have to go
back to pre-Napoleonic times to come up with numbers
that approach the size of the contractor contingent
in Iraq today. This, I think, is exactly the kind of
breakdown between nations and states that you talk
about, correct?
Good point--I read recently that the number of contractors in Iraq now exceeds the number of uniformed (foreign)military personnel by a slight margin. Most of the contractors are preforming non-combat roles, but there are exceptions to this (PDF warning).
The contractor phenomenon--use by Nation-States, as well as use by multinationals for private security and *other* tasks--certainly supports the dissolution of the Nation-State. The classic Nation-State military mobilization, for example among the great powers during WWI and WWII, left little or no room for their own citizens to be a contract army. Today, by contrast, monetary motivation and "career concerns" are a major reason why many (admittedly not all) of our uniformed personnel enlist (free college was my overriding motivation to go to the Air Force Academy), so there is also the fact that our Nation-State's military is increasingly mercenary in character. Just look at the signing bonuses given to new recruits--if it was all patriotism, that wouldn't happen, just as it didn't happen in WWII. Ultimately, if you subscribe to Philip Bobbitt's distopian vision of the "Market-State" rapidly replacing the outdated "Nation-State," then the market will increasingly provide for traditional Nation-State functions like security, even if veiled in an "official" uniform.
I've been thumbing through Bobbitt's 'Shield of Achilles' off an on now for a few months (been too busy finishing up the ye olde dissertation for fun stuff) but I've found his basic argument interesting and largely parallels the work done by many in the field of historical sociology. Charles Tilley's 'Coercion, Capital, and European States' comes to mind, as does a lot of work in the field on institutional economics that looks at the states as basically a 'protection provision' firm - the subject of my own dissertation by the way.
What fascinates and disturbs me is the way in which many of the 'older' political-economy scholars predicted something like this happening but are now totally ignored by the mainstream in the academy today. I don't consider myself a Marxist pe se, but it's hard to look at globalization and the cultural identity destroying forces wrought by it and not see that as something Marx predicted regardless of one's opinion of whether this is ultimately a good or bad thing. Similarly, Polyani's 'Great Transformation' and his discussion of the evolution, resistance to, and ultimate collapse of the self-regulating market prior to World War II was really a precursor to the debate over 'globalization and its discontents' today.
To me, it seems the academic social sciences are missing something big and we're groping towards some new way to interpret the world. Hell, even in economics there's a growing movement that's beginning to question the orthodoxy surrounding the assumptions of the neo-classical model. See:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/education/11economics.html?_r=1&ref=ed...
I'm worried because it's obvious to anybody who looks that something is seriously out of kilter in terms of the balance of social forces working in the world today. The dominance of the unfettered market and the elevation of finance in our economies is causing dislocations, problems, and resistance that looks eerily similar to the period before the First World War. Combine that with ecological damage and resources sustainability...and, well...the future scares me. That many academics, who are supposed to be looking at the world as it is and as opposed to how their theories say it should be, don't see this speaks to the level of corruption caused by these forces in all our major institutions.
PS, I agree with your point about imbalance--academia has a hard time with paradigm shifts. We are always slow. That's why this site and sites like it are so important.
I think--and I am not an IR scholar (but Jeff is, so he might be able to get at this better) is that this is the conflict between the neoliberal paradigm and the realist/neorealist paradigm in a time a resource scarcity. Noeliberalism argues for interconnected networks of interdependence--scarce resources break those down. Neorealism argues for power to shift to those with the resources, with the caveats of neoliberalism.
In other words, it's a clusterfuck.
A new paradigm is developing. I guess this is just what it feels like.
As for your dissertation, remember this: treat yourself well or you will never get your dissertation done. That means reading for pleasure as well. :)
I'm an IR guy too - :-) oil geopolitics must draw a lot of us types here.
I got my BA in IR. I also find oil geopolitics fascinating, especially what is happening in East and Central Asia--hell, for that matter, all over the globe.
Translation from academicese to english = "the shit is hitting the fan."
Translation = "I'm soiling my skivies thinking about the implications of this."
An astute, if not humorous, translation.
"ovis suburbanus" (which translate to "suburban sheep") has got to be one of the best screen names in the PO sphere I've seen yet.
I thought about posting as "Ignoramus North Americanus" once.
There are a couple other good ones here too. I saw "Sonic The Hedge Fund" on this thread.
Indeed, Matt. Indeed. :)
In other words we have a neofuckup?
Academia doesn't want to call it what is.
Incompetent illiterate people that can produce nothing of value and/or don't even have the skills to feed themselves are breeding like rabbits and are allowed to invade our societies.
Hi mus,
Could you please explain this a little further? What are you talking about? Are you talking about illegal/or legal immigration to the US, the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the general state of primary education in the US - or what?
Mostly that in first world societies the people that bring something to the table have basically zero population growth, while arrivals from the third and fourth world multiply like rabbits.
No one can afford to pay for this any longer.
Not much one can do about the ones here legally, but the law can be changed so births receive the citizenship of the mother and draconian fines and criminal penalties can be imposed on anyone hiring or doing any type of business with illegal aliens and generally enforcing existing law.
How do you deport 20+ million illegal aliens? You force them to deport themselves.
If it takes heavy armor on the border, so be it.
I most certainly didn't put 20+ years in to have these pieces of shit in DC selling the country down the river and have my neighborhood invaded by foreigners.
Hi Mus,
This discussion may well be over by now!
Just wanted to ask a few questions.
I thought there are some advantages to immigration.
For example, having a higher population of younger workers, to add to Soc. Sec, taxes...and do work. (?) With an aging population, at ZPG - doesn't this also cause problems?
I've also wondered about the following:
What if Mexico kept both its oil and its citizens at home? Then what?
What is the intersection between economics and population in terms of the manufacturing base? If X % (what is it, anyway) of manufactured goods sold in the US are made in China, is this kind of like having "de facto" immigrants from China?
I don't know...it just seems like the meaning of citizenship, in terms of "function" would be an interesting discussion. In the sense of economics.
Or have UPS find them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15D3ElV1Jzw
ROFLMAO.
invade our societies.
Come again? Within its own borders, the US has plenty of 'Incompetent illiterate people' who were born here.
Just watch broadcast TV for any length of time.
Even the families of 'old money' have such a 'design feature'.
I agree--
Marx may be solid proof of time travel--
No one could predict the things he did 150 yours out--
While wrong about human nature (too positive), if you need analysis on capitalism, Marx nailed it.
If you want someone who predicted the failings of Marx, read Bakunin--
As astute as Marx, only on communism.
Disclaimer: Not a Marxist, but historically appreciate his great insight
T. Christian Miller puts the number of contractors in Iraq at over 180,000:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-na-private4jul04,0,5808...
That includes some Iraqis too, of course, but the overwhelming majority are foreigners. As far as calling many of them noncombatants, the same could be said of many of the 140,000 GI's, who drive trucks, shuffle papers, and cook.
Your own link says precisely the opposite:
"The numbers include at least 21,000 Americans, 43,000 foreign contractors and about 118,000 Iraqis"
We have private armies being paid huge amounts of money compared to the 'public' army counterparts. In a way it is a reversion to an earlier paradigm in which the conquering army gets to plunder and loot and go home with the spoils. The loot comes to the private armies mostly indirectly through taxes on the weakening nation state that is employing the army or sometimes directly. I would not be surprised to see, as the nation state weakens, that the loot for the private armies will come more directly from the 'conquered' lands.
Also, you can get the book free on my site, though if you want to pay for a hardcopy I'm not going to stop you :)
http://www.jeffvail.net/atheoryofpower.pdf
Thanks, that's very generous of you.
Can I skip buying the hardcopy and just mail you 15 cents?
I get a buck fifty, believe it or not, which is still pretty miserable. Generally, if people ask, I suggest that they download the book free, and if they think it's worth it, they buy a hardcopy to give to a friend...
1.50 sounds pretty good.
Back in the day when I was in University a prof used his own text in his class. On the first day he went around the room and set 15 cents (OK, I forget the exact amount, but a much less than a buck) on each student's desk. He then announced that was the profit he received from each sale of his text, so he doesn't want to hear any complaining about him using the text just to make money off the students.
Mind you this was a very small class, I don't think he could have done that for a lecture.
Jeff, thanks for all your hard work! One thing about illegal immigration that people fail to note is that Mexican emmigrants are a relief valve on the political situation in Mexico. The immigrants to the US are seeking work, but if they are forced to stay home they would act to change the Reublic. The hardest working, most productive and most ambitious Mexicans come to the US, leaving behind the more timid people.
They've become a huge factor in the United States. In the Houston area the proportion of Mexicans has grown from about 5% in 1970, to nearly 40% today-larger than any other ethnic group. If their is a revolution in progress, these individuals will provide the troops, just as they did from the San Antonio area in the 1910-1930 revolution when Madero, Huerta and Orozco all plotted from SA and raised troops and funds there. Lou Dobbs racism and nativism might be the blockage in the relief valve that makes the whole thing explode.
Bob Ebersole
Bob-
I think this is a classic example of a positive feedback loop: the more the Mexican state fails to provide for their nation, the more that Mexicans will look for opportunity in the US, and the more that Xenophobia will take reactionary steps, catalyzing a true failure of the Mexican state, and making the immigration problem that much worse!
Interesting thoughts on US-based Mexicans leading a revolution in Mexico. It certainly makes sense--my only note of caution was that much of the Mexican nationalism in the early 20th Century was to gain control of their oil resources. They accomplished that, but now that this production is failing, is there sufficient motivation to return?
Jeff-
There wasn't much fighting centered around Vera Cruz or Tabasco, in spite of or because of the USMC being sent in to protect the Golden Lane oil fields. That makes me question oil as being the source of much old time Mexican nationalism . But if a revolution should break out today, I'm sure it would be a big deal-its the biggest source of revenue in the Mexican government.
Mexico is hugely underexplored compared to the US. Damn few wildcats in Chihuahua, not much off Baja California, not much in shallow coastal waters in the Gulf north of Vera Cruz. There may actually be some supergiants there. If the federal government breaks down, like Columbia, I'd expect local governments to make some deals.
The Mexican government allows its emmigrants to vote, so they have remained in the political process. That's why I think they will have a significant influence on the future. And, don't forget all those guys sending the moneygrams to Mexico-they're involved with wives and mothers and children still in Mexico.
Bob Ebersole
Well that might work out well for those timid souls if it included the jokers running the shop.
End up with something like Cuba with everyone left getting fed?
I don't remember seeing Cuba in that otherwise fine article By Nate Hagins that dealt with wealth increase versus satisfaction, but Mexico was nearly as highly rated as The US and Canada. I wonder at the joy that would ensue (in Mexico) if all the ambitious strivers particularly the elite variety left Mexico for the US?
This reminds me of Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy and the spaceship that went ahead programed to crash with all the dental hygienists and telephone sanitizers, I think that was the B ship, I am not sure but did Douglas Adams write in a C ship too.#:)
Bob -- Good points!
Demographics should also be noted: rouhgly 50% of the people in Mexico are 25 or younger. Barring a depression in the US, I fully expect the relief valve you mention to be wide open for many years to come.
Illegal immigration by Americans into Mexico helped cause a war that resulted in Texas becoming independent. I wonder how the current wave northward from Mexico will turn out? The 3 NAFTA countries are appearing to become one giant country. National borders are becoming increasingly "blurry" post NAFTA.
Sonic: As we speak, the move toward integration of Mexico and the USA is proceeding. Mexican problems are American problems. Mexico, as a society and an economy that protects and promotes the interests of the moneyed elite (net worth >100 mill), is extremely attractive to the USA.
Most of the pre-1836 immigration to Texas was legal, under the Empresario system. I'm a landman in Texas, if you'd like me to elaborate, I will.
Your point about the demographics is interesting. There are 35-40 million Mexican nationals in America. Although some of them are children, most are working age adults. I have no idea how that changes the Republics demographics, but in a country of 110,000,000 people it must.
The pressure will continue to build, but the increased border patrol and the Haliburton camps make me wonder if a bunch of it is now being pent up. Bob Ebersole
Bob -- I also live in Texas, though I am not yet a landman. I have numerous relatives on both sides of the border. Reagarding the future of the Republic, while I am very concened about rewarding 10+ million illegals with voting level citizenship, my main long-term concern is on overcoming the Spanish-English language barrier.
My Mexican relatives who can speak English well are as "American" as any native Texan: they are American educated and would blend in just about anywhere in the US. Moreover, the choice of living location is largely uncorrelatted with their citizenship status: some relatives who are American citizens live in Mexico and vice-versa. They live where they can get the best job & work-family tradeoff. The family lives as if we are in the North American Union (NAU) that GreyZone mentions. Yep, the NAU is already far along and no, none of us got to vote on it.
The relatives who have failed to learn English well have doomed themselves to permanent 2nd class citizen status in both Mexico and the US. If this group of Mexican immigrants in the US becomes large, then I think we'll have a serious long-term problem.
Go Google "North American Union" and read what follows. Then go visit http://spp.gov/ and prepare to have your eyes opened. It's already happening, without your input, vote, or consent.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Yes, it is happening. --The blurring and gradual disappearance of functional national borders, that is. But all that would be happening anyhow, even with input & votes against it and the lack of consent.
Borders & frontiers all over the planet are becoming more & more porous because they've outlived their usefulness. The concept of the nation-state as it has been known is what is withering away. And the same situation that is the root cause of peak oil (too many people using too much of a non-expandable resource base) is what is bringing it about.
As noted up-thread, efforts to thwart what is already a fait accompli will just make things that much worse and speed the process along.
Anybody ever stop to think that the Haliburton camps might be there for round-ups of the self-appointed homeland defenders once they start getting in the way?
Uhh... (forgive me...) DUUH!
"Lou Dobbs racism and nativism... "
Everyone is aware that Lou Dobbs is married to a Latino right? I don't think he is a racist. More accurately, ILLEGAL immigration, SPP, NAFTA are the things that tick him off I think.
I have a bad feeling that the "Immigrants" are gonna bear the brunt of Joe 6pack's rage of losing everything.
Watch the activity of guys with "EasyRider rifle racks" in their pickups.
Again, "You ain't from around here" is going to be a scary question to be asked of some people.
Not my feelings, I just know the feelings of the people who will ask that question.
Strom Thurmond had a black daughter, too. Anybody who encourages the Minutemen is a racist.
Bob Ebersole
Why? The Minutemen are not racists.
Leanan
Only if you consider latinos to be white. They consider themselves "la raza".
The vast majority of people that the Minutemen are trying to intimidate have brown skin, brown eyes, black hair and up to 100% indian blood. I see it as racism and xenophobia at its worst, like the fugitive slave catchers that invaded the yankee states before the civil war.
If they're not racist, then why aren't they parading with guns in Boston trying to intimidate the illegal Irish and Canadians? I rest my case.
Bob Ebersole
Minutemen are unarmed. Anyone found to be packing heat is kicked out.
There are Minutemen who operate along the Canadian border, too.
These stories say otherwise.
A few of them, for a month in 2005, yes.
Mind you, literally hundreds of times as many people illegally cross the US's southern border as its northern border, so it's silly to expect similar effort to be expended on each.
The guy who does those interviews with Lou Dobbs says they're not armed. Apparently, there are a lot of different groups now calling themselves Minutemen, some of which are not on speaking terms with others.
Find more on the MinuteMen at Orcinus
cfm in Gray, ME
The ones on the Texas and Arizona carry arms. I've seen 'em in Hudspeth County, they are a bunch of middle aged thugs playing vigilante.
I think its dispicable, and shows our government is insane. My ancestors all got to the USA before the American revolution, but they came for the same reasons that Mexicans come-economic opportunity. How can I blame them ?
The owning class is using this as a wedge to separate people with similar class interests, and anyone who lets them do this is a fool. If they actually wanted to stop illegal immigration, the government would enforce the laws and prosecute the employers. As long as we allow companies like BP to hire subcontractors to do the dirty, carcenogenic work in their refineries its going to happen. As long as we allow restaurants to hire illegals, deduct social security and withholding and steal the money, its going to happen. As long as we allow construction contractors to not pay withholding and workmans comp insurance on illegals, its going to happen.
We are turning the US back into a slave holding country with the exploitation of illegals, and the Minutemen are the dupes who are making it happen. They terrify defenseless women and men, make it where women will sell themselves to coyotes who enslave them as whores in cantinas so they can cross without being shot.
Bob Ebersole
I think it's the wave of the future. The federal government is not doing what the people want, so the people are taking matters into their own hands.
It's not just the Minutemen. It's people in Vermont, talking secession. It's state governments passing global warming legislation that the President and Congress won't. It's states trying to keep the feds from sending their National Guard troops to Iraq.
As post carbon age winds along, I think we'll see more communities trying to pull away, for the reasons Tainter describes.
And I say it's precisely the opposite. It's the owning class that's in favor of illegal immigration, because that gives them the slaves. Legal immigrants have the power to demand fair wages, health insurance, fair treatment. Illegals will work for lower salaries and no benefits. If they get injured on the job, there's no OSHA investigation or bump in insurance premiums. You just dump them off at the emergency room of the nearest hospital.
And if you don't want to pay them, you don't have to. What are they going to do, call the police?
Leanan;
“And I say it's precisely the opposite. It's the owning class that's in favor of illegal immigration, because that gives them the slaves. Legal immigrants have the power to demand fair wages, health insurance, fair treatment. Illegals will work for lower salaries and no benefits. If they get injured on the job, there's no OSHA investigation or bump in insurance premiums. You just dump them off at the emergency room of the nearest hospital. And if you don't want to pay them, you don't have to. What are they going to do, call the police?”
Does this quote go along with this mindset?
Think of the 55 speed limit. On the interstate I have traveled in a pack of cars with a cop at 70mph.
When everyone is speeding, You can pull over anyone.
Let me see, The Patriot Act was already back from the Printers when 911 happened and sent out the next week or so.
A few years ago I was convicted of the misdemeanor of not painting my house and making other repairs I couldn't afford to the satisfaction of local realtors who complained to the local housing inspector. In order to get off probation I had to stop making mortgage payments in order to pay for the repairs. The mortgage company foreclosed and I lost the my home of 18 years.
Sorry to hear that Thomas. That really sucks. And point well taken...
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Your house is never really yours in a capitalist society. Even if you had paid off the house, try not paying property taxes, and have fun with the city taking your house. Even if you do not want hookups for the road, sewage, water, or power.
Vermont does not want secession, they're just ready to kick the rest of us out if we don't straighten up our collective act. Seems fair enough to me ...
I find it very odd that a goverment that would have 80 year old women pratically stripped searched, X-rayed, have her 6oz shampoo bottle taken away and then arrested for making ANY humorous remark about security at an airport,
Is the same Gov has no problem with millions crossing at will.
I would like to see our laws working like Mexico's does for immigrants INTO Mexico.
http://www.shns.com/shns/g_index2.cfm?action=detail&pk=MEXICO-04-24-06
Mexico Encourages poor people to leave to the US,
But has a different standard for inbound immigrants.
Doesn't that seem a little hypocritical?
There's some irony! Some of the first Minutemen were the RCMP which were established to keep the pesky Americans in check in the Western territories. Manifest Destiny and all.
I assume you want the migrants from mexico as elsewhere to abandon the concept of "race" as well? Your incesant chest beating about "racism" per lib standards (double standards) never seems to ask the pertinent question what do the migrants think of America and its present citizens. On a lighter note do these new citizens believe in Darwin's theory of Evolution, if not maybe Karl Rove was right and they are natural GOPers?
The issue I hear most is they are "illegal". Underlying that is of course the issue of skin color, and the origin of the southwest states.
I don't work with or know, anyone who's ancestors came to the US under the quta and visa system, except myself. The presumption seems to be that the Mexicans should apply for a visa and then wait patiently for ever until they number comes up, to fill jobs and support their families. Patience won't be there when the accepted wisdom is that the gringos and their businesses ruined the economy in Mexico.
If NAFTA is really bilateral why not issue instant IDs at the border? Only Mexicans need apply. Do Saudis still get express visas?
As for "you aint from around here" have heard that years ago in Okie land. But it can and will get worse. If you look anglo don't open your mouth to dis-illusion the natives, who are proud to advertise that their ancestors are Sooners.
The analogy I use for the Mexican immigration situation is the levees breached by Katrina in New Orleans. Even a fence built by the US govt would probably compare with levees built by the Army Corpse of Engineering.
I always bothers me to see racism surfacing on this list in the form of the typical statement 'they breed like rabbits' thus relegating the 'other' people to less than human status. Makes it easier to become a Minuteman/Vigilante and start etching little dead immigrant symbols onto the side of your well armed SUV.
The typical Mexican family has 2.4 children compared to the typical American family which has 2.1 children. Hardly 'breeding like rabbits.' And Mexico's birthrate has been falling rapidly since the 1960's.
.... If anyone is still on the thread....
and before being accused of playing the 'race' card....
The vast majority of us look helplessly on the immigration problem (and yes, it is a problem) as we look helplessly on the vast pollution and global warming problems. Unfortunately, even well meaning and rational attempts to deal with the immigration problem fall afoul the many-headed hydra that is the US government. In part this causes reactions like the vigilante approach, which is understandable but, in its extreme forms, I find loathsome. So call me a bleeding-heart liberal, I don't care. After all is said and done on this immigration issue, things will almost certainly be worse in the future in this issue as well as many other issues in spite of the best efforts of well-meaning people. In the final analysis, for me, the most immediate issue becomes how we treat our fellow human beings and I still believe in placing a priority on compassion and understanding, something that I actually have some measure of control over.
Lou Dobbs is not a racist. He is in favor of legal immigration. He just think the U.S. needs to control its own borders, for security as well as economic reasons.
I am more inclined to discourage immigration of all kinds (with certain exceptions). Not because I'm xenophobic, but because I think that's the only politically acceptable way to reduce our population growth. But aside from that, I'm a big Dobbs supporter. Illegal immigration is allowing Mexico to not fix their problems. And it allows U.S. employers to foist the cost of labor onto taxpayers. It's an outrage.
Unfortunately, Lou Dobbs seems willing to skew statistics and exploit the fear of leprosy to make his case. That doesn't speak well for him.
Actually infectious disease is on the rise in a number of categories and illegal immigration has been pointed to as the vector for these diseases' re-introduction into our nation. Leprosy has shown up in areas not exepcted by the CDC, along with higher rates of TB, influenza, and various diseases which are normally vaccinated against in this country.
Racism quite frankly is a cop out for the pro-illegal immigration lobby fronts such as "la raza"(ironic given their own racist name and message).
Personally I AM against illegal immigration and it has nothing to do with Race whatsoever. I'm also suspect of the current quotas to maintain the economic activity in this country. Personally what I would like to see is an enforcement of the illegal immigration laws in place already (remember that whole concept of Rule of Law?), and then a Change in Law to streamline LEGAL immigration process (because currently that process is absolutely obscene), and a review of the quotas of Legal Immigrants we permit in this country.
I really don't have a problem with 10, 20, or 30 million Mexicans, Chinese, Irish, Nigerian, or Iraqi workers coming over and filling jobs, so long as its done LEGALLY, and if that means we need to adjust our quotas, then we need to CHANGE the law, not simply ignore it like we've been doing.
The moment we start praising our officials for ignoring laws is the moment we just endorsed Government Corruption. Chew on that, pro-illegal immgrant backers.
If we don't like the law, then work to change it and keep our government honest (a tough task I admit).
Lou Dobbs is a lying sack of shit. We've always had leprosy in the southern part of the U.S.. One of my father's best friends, now deceased, was a dermatologist whose primary specialty was leprosy and who practiced in Houston. There is a leper colony in south Louisiana over 100 years old.
Bob Ebersole
While hysteria over possible increases in leprosy is not warranted, it is true that there is somewhat of a resurgence of some diseases resulting from massive levels of unchecked immigration.
For example, last year my husband diagnosed the first confirmed case of pertussis (whooping cough) in OR since it was last reported many years prior. At one point it was thought to have been virtually eradicated. The epidemiologist from the health department said the disease was apparently spread primarily by illegal immigrants working in large meat production facilities.
Given that most Americans are not living health lifestyles, it may not be fair to put so much emphasis on illnesses related to immigrant populations. Nevertheless, the combination of a horribly dysfunctional health care system and the introduction of new variants of diseases that are difficult to control or treat is a frightening thought.
I have to add that the constant racism charge against people who support immigration restriction/reform only stifles real debate. It is absolutely absurd to use such tactics when a very large percentage of Americans affected by the associated wage depression happen to be minorities. Cesar Chavez was a racist? African American Congresswoman Barbara Jordan was a racist? I am definitely not racist. I am a minority and having come from a working poor family I had to struggle financially to get my education. I have experienced hunger, malnutrition, cold in the winter, and a few times was unable to afford health care or antibiotics for an acute infection. I truly understand how easy it is for citizens living in the richest country on earth to lose their footing and remain impoverished and under the radar their entire lives.
The heart of the debate has nothing to do with melanin and everything to do with balancing quality of life issues with pragmatism and compassion.
The racism charge is the standard left wing canard when they have no facts to support their position but want to curry favor with some minority group. It stifles genuine debate about actual issues such as border security and how to properly create a guest worker program that actually serves both the people of the United States and the people of Mexico. In fact, the racism charge is just what the corporate movers and shakers love because it keeps the focus off the real issues and keeps the populace divided. It's just like the standard right wing garbage of trying to tie "liberal" to "communist". Neither is valid or useful and anyone who resorts to the "race card" is demonstrating either their gross ignorance of the actual situation around illegal immigration or their willingness to be a real tool.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
racist = someone winning an argument with a liberal
Excellent post.
I don't agree with those downthread who think "libruls" use the charge of racism to stifle debate. I think Americans are genuinely uneasy with the implied xenophobia that immigration restrictions bring to mind. And for good reason. It can very easily cross over into really icky Nazi stuff.
Nevertheless, it's something we have to deal with. Peak oil means a lot of paradigms will be shifting, and immigration will be one of them.
Leanan, it seems to me that stopping Mexican immigration would be morally justified IF it was combined with serious efforts to help the average Mexican, so that he or she didn't need to come to the US.
We should be working in Mexico to improve education, reform land ownership, reduce bureaucratic obstacles to entrepeneurship, reform the tax system, and reduce public corruption. Do we seriously believe we are powerless to reduce the corruption and paralysis of the Mexican government if we seriously tried?
Of course, as a country we've been unable to reduce public corruption, so I'm not too hopeful, but these are the kinds of policy proposals I would expect to hear from someone who wasn't just trying to "pull up the ladder".
Quite frankly, I am trying to pull up the ladder.
And I think every country probably should be. I don't know which, if any, of the lifeboats will survive, but I know those that allow everyone to climb in will not.
Amen. I'm not the least bit ashamed of my xenophobia, because I think history teaches that being afraid of other people is often a very good idea when you have something and they don't.
"Let us wrestle with the ineffable and see if we may not, in fact, eff it after all."
-Dirk Gently, character of the late great Douglas Adams.
Hi Leanan,
Interesting discussion.
Here's my Q:
So, is it all right for Mexico to stop selling oil to the US?
It's our country, so it's their oil. We can turn our corn into ethanol, or sell it to them in exchange for oil, they can sell their oil to Australia in return for wheat if they choose. Our choice, and theirs. Mexico is just as sovereign as America.
There is some biblical literalist angle on the whole leprosy thing - the disease was mentioned so often in the bible and calling attention to it is another one of those "end times" signs.
I'm with Leanan. Having said that, I don't follow what Lou Dobbs says so this is not an endorsement of him.
Still, our non-negotiable way of way is unsustainable PERIOD. Most of us know this.
Allowing for or tolerating illegal immigration is not helping us nor those who come here solve what needs solving, either here or there.
Secure borders is common sense, even if it doesn't solve everything else, but it's one step of many others in one right direction.
Dealing with immigration/population control and what constitutes a sustainable quality vs. quantity of life within our specific place based capacity to do so is controversial enough; but instead of addressing it thoughtfully seeing it sidetracked into a racism-my ancestors-economic opportunity diatribe is futile.
Nature will (along with PO, CC, geo-political above ground factors, etc.) settle this issue for us, but not in a non-controversial way. As happens to any species which overshoots its ecological carrying capacity it will be brutal and horribly so for us.
Lovely.
they may be hard working, ambitious, and most productive, but have you looked at the quality of their homebuilding skills? talk about the house that Jack built! I lived in the woodlands for 10 years. just sold my house. These homes are as crooked as a politician. I agree with what you said, but I noticed their quality of craftmanship is seriously lacking.
By the way, I enjoy Lou Dobbs. So I disagree with your opinion of him.
Frank Gehry has the right idea - no one can tell if his stuff is crooked.
I wouldn't blame immigrants - the quality of construction in America now simply doesn't compare to what was done fifty years ago. Perhaps Pirsig had the right idea, turn off the iPods, turn off Rush, turn off Howard and think about what you are doing.
This isn't for Bob in particular, but is rather aimed at the whole thread.
We sit here and easily discuss the collapse of Mexico, the count of Mexican immigrants here, and how it will affect our state.
What if our state collapses, too?
This particular meme is often missing from our discussions. People write as if they're going to be warm, dry, fed, and sitting behind a computer monitor as this happens. Without Mexican oil things are bad, and if we screw up the goodwill of the Mexican workers, be they legal or illegal, that trouble will easily wash as far north as Oregon/Colorado and as far west as the Mississippi.
Our society, as it is, will disintegrate as energy, economy, and ecosystem close in on the metastable state in which it evolved. The result could be peaceful acceptance of life's changing fortunes, but politicians (polite way of saying warlords) prefer the "cats in a sack" scenario.
"What if our state collapses, too? "
OR, what happens WHEN our state collapses? The US is probably among the most vulnerable in many ways. I also find humorous the complacency of the "people who write as if they going to be warm, dry, fed and sitting behind their computer."
I think you are right that we will see serial "cats in a sack" scenerios repeatedly here in the US (especially as the mega-metros succumb).
Right now we can still afford our ethics, morals and civil behavior. But when people are constantly hungry and cold, all three will be quickly abandoned.
I wonder which US city will resemble Mogadishu, Somalia first? Maybe we should take a poll?
Not necessarily an idle question. Regional disputes over resources seem very likely to me. If the Gulf Coast turns off the natural gas pipelines and the Canadians pull the hydro plug, NYC and surroundings collapse very quickly. What are the characteristics that might allow a region to maintain a more efficient version of the developed world life style? I would argue that several things are necessary:
Twenty years back I would have suggested Denver. Population along the Front Range may be getting too big these days. And before everyone screams about the water, Denver has adequate snowmelt and reservoir capacity to support the necessary irrigation, once they stop using it for bluegrass and corn. Portland, with existing hydro taking the place of the fossil fuels?