DrumBeat: September 10, 2007
Posted by Leanan on September 10, 2007 - 9:03am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil Rises to Near Record on Signs OPEC Will Keep Output Quota
Crude oil rose to within 50 cents of a record on speculation rising demand and restricted OPEC production may tighten fourth-quarter supplies...."If there was possibly going to be an increase they would have hinted at it earlier," said Tom Hartmann, commodity broker at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. Investors are bullish and "it could be this is going to be one of those times they're not going to sell until they get to $80."
Mexican rebel groups takes credit for attacks that cut oil and gas supplies, rattle markets
A shadowy leftist guerrilla group took credit for a string of explosions that ripped apart at least six Mexican oil and gas pipelines Monday, rattling financial markets and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in lost production.The six explosions could be seen miles away, and set off fires that sent flames and black smoke shooting high above the Gulf coast state of Veracruz.
At least a dozen pipelines, most carrying natural gas, were affected, said Jesus Reyes Heroles, the head of Mexico's oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, without providing specifics.
He said there would be hundreds of millions of dollars in lost production and about nine states and the capital, Mexico City, would be affected.
“It is a big blow,” he said. “You can't store natural gas or transport it by truck.”
Battery-like device could power electric cars
Millions of inventions pass quietly through the U.S. patent office each year. Patent No. 7,033,406 did, too, until energy insiders spotted six words in the filing that sounded like a death knell for the internal combustion engine.An Austin-based startup called EEStor promised "technologies for replacement of electrochemical batteries," meaning a motorist could plug in a car for five minutes and drive 500 miles roundtrip between Dallas and Houston without gasoline.
China planning major expansion of oil refineries: report
China is planning a major expansion of its oil refineries to help reduce reliance on imports and keep up with demand, a Chinese newspaper reported over the weekend.Plans call for the country to have 31 refineries by 2015, each with a capacity to process nine million tonnes of crude oil a year (220,000 barrels a day), the Economic Observer reported. At the end of last year, China had only nine facilities with similar capacity.
The National Development and Reform Commission, China's main planning agency, also expects by 2015 to have 30 ethylene factories, each with an annual output of about one million tonnes a year, the report said, citing unnamed officials.
China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec Group, is planning about 20 refineries able to process nine million tonnes of crude oil a year, it said. Some would be new but most would involve less costly expansions of existing refineries.
PetroChina, China's biggest oil conglomerate, is expected to build at least 10 refineries of the same size, the report said.
Sinclair refinery plans expansion
The Sinclair refinery here has announced a $1 billion expansion that will ensure Tulsa's role as a major player in the oil industry in the 21st century.
Gazprom talks LNG swaps with locals
RUSSIAN gas giant Gazprom is in talks with leading Australian energy companies about a possible swaps arrangement for international sales of liquefied natural gas.
Trans-Arabia Oil Pipeline project to begin in November
The pipeline infrastructure is being designed to bypass the Straits of Hormuz, through which roughly one-third of the world's oil currently flows. Work on the pipeline is expected to begin in November, and large sections of it will be buried underground. Once complete, the system will include five separate pipelines. In July, the U.S. announced an arms deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council to boost security in the region.
CIBC World Markets Examines Future Of Canadian Oil Sands
For most multinational oil firms, the world is rapidly shrinking, according to Rubin and Buchanan. Increasingly, they are shut out of the backyards of all the state-owned oil patches and then have to bid against those state firms in places still open for investment. Canada remains one of those few places, they said, where governments have been content to take their share of economic rents through royalties and not be concerned about the ownership per se.
Public perception of oil industry colors legislation, tax policy
Public perception of the oil and gas industry has colored and will continue to impact public policy that affects the industry, whether it's regulations, tax policy or access to potential oil and gas sources such as the Roan Plateau in Colorado.
Greens need to grasp the nettle: aren't there just too many people? - Reducing consumption is imperative, but it's pointless to cut out meat and cars while having lots of children
It's not surprising that environmental organisations fight shy of getting into this subject. It embroils them in a host of deeply emotive and difficult debates. Immigration for one. Most of the UK population growth in the next few decades will be attributable to immigration. Should we have a balanced migration policy with a net zero increase? Given how many British-born are emigrating to Australia, the US, Spain and France, it would still allow us to maintain our international responsibilities to provide asylum. But it wouldn't allow us to absorb the same quantities of cheap east European labour that have subsidised our economic growth.
A slew of entrepreneurs are looking well beyond sunlight and wind. Think: tornadoes, algae, giant kites, and lightning.
Corn Ethanol & its Unintended Consequences for California
Growth of the corn ethanol industry in California is fraught with unintended consequences, none of which are beneficial to the economy or the environment of the state. They include impacts on our overcommitted water resources, on our air quality, on the price of food, and on the financial burden to citizens while private investors profit.
9,000% Profit and Other Truths
Let's take back most of that $2.3 trillion thrown away to pals by the Pork Barreling War Criminals in Washington and the trillions robbed from America's workers by the oil companies, and the $5.9 trillion left by the Clinton Administration, blown by the Bushites. Let us form a letter writing, phone calling, personal visiting, push among our citizens and congress to follow FDR's lead to renegotiate all No-Bid Contracts and recapture 80% of all charges made by "Uniquely Qualified Contractor's" No-Bid contractors, Oil Companies, and other contractors, ASAP?
Indonesia: Poor to suffer most in LPG conversion program
When it comes to family matters, Ponirah, Francissca Rohini and Larmi have one thing in common -- they would do anything for the wellbeing of their loved ones.With a kerosene shortage continuing to affect their neighborhoods, the three housewives are forced to walk to the nearest kerosene outlet in Kreo Selatan subdistrict in Tangerang on a daily basis. To beat the crowds, the women wake up extremely early to make sure their children are fed before embarking on the journey.
Los Angeles' accelerating quest to create centers of higher population density - especially downtown, in Hollywood and in Mid-Wilshire - may be on a collision course with California's crusade to slow global warming by reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. And the potential trouble comes from an unlikely source - buildings.
Global Warming and the Coastside
In a recent edition of Scientific American (August 2007), some of the IPCC scientists acknowledged that their sea level estimates may have been too low, because they emphasized the expansion of the existing ocean waters (warmer water occupies more space than cooler water), not the additional water supplied by the rapid melting of major glaciers and polar caps. In any event, the rise in sea levels will sooner or later exceed even the highest IPCC estimates, because of what climatologists call “climate inertia,” meaning in our situation that the globe will warm (and seas rise) for approximately 1000 years regardless of whatever countermeasures we take. That is, the tipping point for long-term global warming has been passed.
The chief of the private oil company Russneft is on the run in the wake of an international arrest warrant issued by Russia.
China, Japan agree to talks on disputed gas field
Japan and China have agreed to hold further talks on proposed joint exploration of a disputed natural gas field in the East China Sea, a Japanese official said.
Energy Proposals Go From Tame to Exotic
The challenge of keeping [Long Island]’s lights on and its air-conditioners humming in the years to come has energy experts scrambling to satisfy this power-thirsty land of homes filled with big-screen televisions, computers and video games.Huge energy projects — some strikingly innovative — are competing for approval and billions of dollars, even as a couple of high-profile projects have been scuttled.
Time is running out for blind opposition to nuclear power
We live in a different world now. The nuclear threat to the planet pales into insignificance beside the threat posed by climate change.
Global clean-energy fund launches
A new global fund that invests in the world's top clean-energy companies is to be launched in Canada today by Criterion Investments Ltd., which sees huge opportunity in efforts to "de-carbonize" the environment.
As a UC Davis undergraduate, Starr built his first electric car in 1974 during the era of the OPEC Oil Embargo and gas lines. Frustrated by the fuel shortage, he asked one of the professors about electric cars and was told that electric cars could not go fast enough, far enough and were too expensive. A few months later, Starr built his first electric car with mostly junk and surplus parts. The converted dune buggy went 50 MPH, had a range per charge of 50 miles and cost about $2,500 to make."That car taught me that, just because an expert says it can't be done, doesn't mean it's true."
Renewable Energy Cannot Sustain a Consumer Society
The title says a lot I think. With the focus of most mainstream debate on peak oil and energy being on the supply side- the oil is running low so what are we going to use instead?- Trainer brings a refreshing approach in which he provides a detailed and technically comprehensive analyses of existing renewable energy options- including wind, solar thermal, solar electric, biomass and energy crops, and hydrogen, as well as a look at nuclear and the issue of storing energy- and concludes:“…we could easily have an extremely low per capita rate of energy consumption, and footprint, based on local resources - but only if we undertake vast and radical change in economic, political, geographical and cultural systems.”
Nuclear power or global warming?
What a dilemma: the very technology that is so despised by much of the environmental lobby is increasingly being touted as the planet's great green hope.
Saudi Arabia to Keep October Crude Supplies Flat
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has told customers in Asia and Europe it will keep its crude supplies steady for October from September levels, backing expectations that an OPEC meeting on Tuesday will maintain supply curbs.State oil firm Saudi Aramco informed buyers in monthly notices it would continue to supply Asian lifters with around 10% below their full contractual volume, as it has since April, industry sources in Japan and South Korea said on Monday.
OPEC oil ministers say crude plentiful
Iran's acting oil minister said Monday he's convinced there are ample supplies of crude on world markets, joining Kuwait and Libya in signaling that OPEC will maintain its current output targets at this week's meeting.
Gasoline prices rise for first time since July
The average retail price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States cost about 6.5 cents more last week, rising for the first time since early July on the back of higher crude oil prices, an industry analyst said on Sunday.
Oil and Corruption in Iraq Part I: Tribes Sabotage Kirkuk Pipelines
Masked men infiltrate the village of al-Milih, 75 kilometers west of Kirkuk, and approach an oil pipeline that passes nearby. Under cover of darkness, they steal oil from an opening they drilled into the pipeline weeks earlier.Over a period of weeks, this scene is repeated nightly.
Kuwait oil facilities secure and safe: official
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Saad Al-Shuaib said here Monday that Kuwaiti oil facilities were secure and safe.The remarks were made following recent reports that Kuwaiti oil installations could come under potential attacks.
Natural gas supply from Iran halts due to pipeline damage
The supply of Iranian natural gas to Turkey has suspended as the gas pipeline between the two countries was partially damaged in a blast, an official statement said on Monday.
A 'Total' Shift in the Oil Industry
With the Dow down 250 points and oil pressing its all-time highs, commodity investors may have missed the most important news bit hitting the airwaves Friday. Speaking to the Financial Times, Christophe de Margerie, CEO of the French oil giant TOTAL, said that the price of oil is high and is likely to stay high for the foreseeable future.That may not seem like such a revolutionary statement ... more like a statement of the obvious ... but it's actually critically important.
China’s top oil refineries will cut operation rates by more than three per cent this month from August, amid heavy late-summer plant maintenance that may help refiners to trim losses but that threatens to squeeze fuel supplies. The reduction was the third monthly drop in a row, with run rates now down seven per cent from their record in June, and may force refiners to deepen cuts in fuel exports while raising imports of gasoline after surprise purchases in recent weeks.
Auto show highlights new models and ways to cut consumption
In general, automakers have sought to get more performance out of smaller engines, and are also expected to show a range of hybrid and biofuel vehicles as European firms try to catch up with Toyota, the clear leader in hybrid cars.
Low grain harvest, rising food prices and China’s ethanol plan
I want to stitch together some pieces of information, a set of events unfolding, that that I describe as a double Achilles Heel in ethanol production here in China. It’s a case study in progress of rising food prices and natural disasters influencing bio-fuel production, especially ethanol, and new regulations for gasoline exports.
New climate plan drawn up for G8 meet
A grouping of former heads of state will present a plan to G8 environment ministers meeting here Tuesday aimed at breaking the impasse between rich and poor countries over global warming.
A different kind of Power to the People: From Fast Company, a business magazine:
I guess the question would have to be, Who are the people? Robb's article in Fast Company gives us a little glimpse into the dystopic world of Naomi Klein's disaster capitalism complex (subscription required).
I've been reading:
Derrick Jenson's book of conversations "Listening to the Land" (2002)
Also:
"The Weather Makers" by Tim Flannery (2005).
The conversations between DJ and people like william Catton, Jr. are inspiring but sobering at the same time.
The Weathermakers is especially sobering, even though Tim Flannery has worked to make the book very readable and has aimed his work at educating and motivating people to take specific action atmany levels.
Flannery mentions the possibility of a humourously-but accurately-named totalitarian "Earth Commission for Thermostatic Control" and "carbon dictatorship."
He suggests that the upheavals to come may very well break down civilization so that an Orwellian nightmare government takes control -- at least for a time.
It to me like that is very much the direction things are taking. More than one ambitious elite is vying for control.
The possibility that we will all become educated and motivated to make positive change is small, but still there. We do not have much time -- if any -- to make needed changes in the way we relate to our planet and to one another. The task of educating and engaging folks in the dialogue is huge.
I'm working on not being overwhelmed by the odds.
beggar,
regarding.."The possibility that we will all become educated and motivated to make positive change is small, but still there."
The possibility that a critical mass, much less all of us will make the changes necessary,,presupposing it is not already too late is Zero.
Prepare yourself and your family. Reduce your dependence on the US$, fossil fuels and the endless growth paradigm.
Regards,
Gunga
I suspect that most of us feel the same way. We try not to be emotionally overwhelmed, and feeling powerless, we take the attitude of being cynically amused at humankind, sitting back and watching the show.
We never talk about the one thing that is needed - dramatic population reduction. It is too unsettling and uncomfortable to confront. And until we do, all other efforts at making "small changes" is just that - inconsequential in the long run.
Francois.
It is interesting that Tim Flannery imagines this scenario when imagining a future "Earth Commission for Thermostatic Control."
"Inevitably, one day some commissioner will suggest that their work would be more effectively done were they to concentrate on the root cause of the issue -- the total number of people on the planet....."
This issue is the one that would, in Flannery's scenario,transform the commission into a global totalitarian government.
My guess is that we are already nearer to this than most people are aware. The policy of allowing maximum die-off from catatrophes is a start at reducing population. The policy of concentrating wealth and power into the hands of ever fewer people is also an attempt to squeeze out the "useless eaters" than drain resources. Finally, the policy of endless Resource War (however disguised) is the current form of the policy of "Kill Off" or genocide.
Remember the Indian Wars? The Europeans found over 12 million Native Americans here and eventually herded the remaining couple of hundred thousand onto reservations to wither away there.
Now the "Indian Wars" have gone global. Soldiers often refer to Iraq as "Injun Country." Over one million Iraqis have died as a result of the Invasion/Occupation, and millions more have fled to overburden neighboring countries with refugees. Recent Indian Wars have been carried on in Central and South America more covertly -- for the most part. Now the battle is being taken more overttly to the continent of Africa as well. This involves a process of destroying infrastructure in such a way as to thin population quickly as well as to sieze resources.
We continue the work of "Manifest Destiny" and continue to interpret "The White Man's Burden" in a violent way. We have to destroy the planet in order to save it.
Maybe we need a new name for global warfare: GIW, or "Global Indian War."
I propose dieoff from the top down, by extreme prejudice. More buck for the bang.
Bad Super. No casino for you. :-)
Many may believe more kids means more chances to win the lottery- they cannot recognize that more kids means losing more in the lottery
1 million iphones sold, rah, rah!
It is absolutely true that without population reduction all else is in vain. But this must be accompanied by other changes which will not be inconsequential in the long run so long as the population problem IS addressed along with these changes. Both issues, population and all else need wide international cooperation in order to protect and foster the needed changes at local levels.
Ironically, Cheney/Bush may be key players in bringing this about. This may be the last empire. The unity achieved in defeating it might be turned to creating a framework in which reality can be addressed on an global scale. The
coming 20-50 years promise to be perhaps the most interesting in the history of the species. Survival of the species in anything approaching a civilized condition depends on our acting as a species with a collective will and brain (meaning all the little brains and wills that make it up are able to argue and think freely).
To laugh at the folly of the species -- which is us --is fine, otherwise we go nuts. But as one gets older and there's less and less of one's own future to care about, what's left is to care about if not the future of the species? There's no hope for my grandchildren if there's no hope for the species.
The key isn't the population per se, but what humans that DO exist are creating that is more useful than what they consume. We know that the current answer is a negative relationship: we just consume stuff and don't think about what our species should be contributing overall.
If we took all the 'overpopulated' humans and put them on a grass diet and let them roam the plains like bison used to, they could contribute to the fertility of the soil. In the pragmatic sense, that is how we have to apply our technology: through a Net Creative paradigm, rather than a Net Consumptive one.
Most of the 'overpopulation' of the world doesn't consume all that much in resources. It is the 'civilized' world that is raping the planet while complaining about lack of purpose and the 'meanness' of their competitive way of living.
Cooperation, Creativity, Community. That is what the future will be, whether we choose it as a large group or as a smaller, surviving one.
I agree with almost all of what you say -- BUT population itself does matter. The earth has a finite carrying capacity, even though we might not yet know exactly what it is There are strong indications that it has exceeded what it will be once one no longer has hydrocarbons for energy, chemicals, fertilizer and all else. There is some maximum sustainable population and sooner or later we'll have to find out what it is. Population control and reduction can be done by US via education, restraining reproduction, taking care of the elderly OR it can be done by NATURE via war and famine and pestilence.
The agricultural revolution, starting 10,000 years ago, occurred on a planet with thick forests and rich soils, although the stock of big mammals had already been considerably depleted by the hunter-gathering revolution of the preceding 50,000-100,000 (maybe more) years. At the end of the industrial age we will not be able to simply revert to one of the prior eras: the condition of the earth is no longer the same. Our involvement with the earth is going to have to be far more intimate and is going to involve carefully controlling our numbers and imprint as well, since we too are part of nature, not some alien force that can simply exploit it with abandon.
Your comments are reminiscent of Neil Stephensen's "Snowcrash" set in a post-apocalyptic world following a vast hyper-inflationary melt-down in which virtually all state functions become privatized--a good read.
Awesome read. Especially if you get the audio book version and listen to it.
Americans should be required at birth to have "Poor Impulse Control" tattooed on their foreheads, forward and reversed, so they can read it in the mirror every morning.
"Movies, Microcode, and Pizza Delivery"- America's future Economy. The only thing wrong with Stephenson's prediction is that the first two are already moving to India.
Stephensen's best book, by far----
The others seemed to stay in the shallow end of the pool, but were somewhat entertaining.
Snowcrash is in a class by itself (although not up to the standards of Gibson's Neuromancer)
The cyberpunk and near future genera has been a interesting phase, but it is drawing to a close, as the visions turn into reality.
Where's the love for Bruce Sterling? Go read Distraction - a political thriller set in dystopian, post collapse Louisiana. Its as tight as Brazil in terms of predictive power, at least from my perspective.
Export Land Model (ELM) Versus the Indonesia Case History
Yesterday, I posted the year over year changes in Indonesian net exports. I have added the ELM year over year changes.
Indonesia was very smilier to my ELM, since Indonesian consumption was about 50% of production, at peak production.
From peak production to the final year of net exports, the ELM shows a decline rate of 28% per year, although the year over year decline rate accelerates with time.
The decline rate in Indonesian net exports from 1996 to 2003 was about 30% per year, but as the ELM suggested, the decline rate in net exports accelerated with time, although they did show a one year increase from 1997 to 1998, because of a slight increase in production and a decline in consumption.
The ELM assumes a 5% decline rate in production and a 2.5% rate of increase in consumption.
From 1996 to 2003, Indonesia showed a 4% decline rate in production and a 4.1% rate of increase in consumption. From 1999 to 2005, Indonesia showed increasing consumption. I believe that their consumption declined in 2006.
The year over year changes in net exports were as follows ELM/Indonesia:
1996: Peak Production
1997: -13%/-16%
1998: -14%/+7%
1999: -17%/-16%
2000: -19%/-20%
2001: -23%/-32%
2002: -30%/-50%
2003: -39%/-73%
2004: -65%/Net Importer
2005: Net Importer/Net Importer
This is what my simplistic ELM suggested, to-wit, that the decline rate in net exports will accelerate with time.
IMO, the problem that exporters will have, in trying to curtail domestic consumption, is that cash flows from export sales will, at least initially, be increasing even as exports decline--because of rising oil prices.
Export Land Model:
http://static.flickr.com/97/240076673_494160e1a0_o.png
Hi WT,
Did you ever run this for the USA?
We have been a net importer since about 1949. If the US were the sole source of crude oil for the world, net exports would have ceased about 21 years before world crude oil production peaked.
I did some rough calculations on when we would have become a net importer, if our reserves and production were 100% higher than what we actually have. I think that we would have become a net importer around 1996.
Ahh...figured it looked different...but that is the worst case Net export scenario.
From the point of view of importing countries, the decline rate for world oil production is almost irrelevant.
As my hypothetical example showed (the US as sole source of crude oil), world net oil exports have been at zero--versus 21 years of rising world oil production.
Arkansawyer
Manic Calm. That's where we are.
"Rumsfeld said the Department of Defense and the U.S. military are not responsible for any failures there (Iraq) or in Afghanistan."
Mexican pipelines bombed. Never to be seen on MSM, BTW.
WTF? And "Terrorism" will NEVER be the word used if the
bombing is reported by MSM.
Washington, Sep 9 (Prensa Latina) The US government is somehow involved in the attacks on the September 11, 2001, El Diario-La Prensa daily reads in an editorial, based on suspicions by thousands of US nationals.
According to Zogby polling firm, 51 percent of US nationals believe Bush and his Vice President Richard Cheney orchestrated a self-aggression to justify militarism in the last years.
Again. You will NEVER see this on your TV.
Finally. Regarding China's grain. I read that China
had a good crop. That Argentina and Spain had good crops of wheat.
An article above disputes that. And Argentina will have a diesel shortage (see Shell Refinery) to get it out.
Australia could be in a permanent Dry. Maybe 18 million tons will be produced. Avg at 24-26.
Like oil. no one in authority has any reason to downplay
grain production.
Wheat at $8.61.
Hello WT,
How do you feel about the effects of taxes/rationing as it applies to the consumption side of your ELM?
I think that it will be extremely difficult for exporting countries to curtail domestic consumption, e.g., the ongoing problems in Nigeria and past and probably future problems in Iran--especially if the cash flow from export sales is increasing, even as the volume of net exports declines.
WT: Can one really assume, though, that the last few exporters will behave in the same way that exporters did when there are lots of other exporters out there?
It is one thing to become a net importer when you know that there are plenty of imports still out there. It is quite another thing to become a net importer when there is nothing to import.
As the number of net exporters decline to the final half dozen or so (and we are not far from that now), the financial rewards for oil exports should increase exponentially. This will certainly provide incentives for the remaining exporters to cut back and conserve their reserves for as long as possible. But this means they will also have incentives to try and limit domestic consumption, too.
We may already be seeing something along these lines with Iran.
But we have also seen riots in Iran, because of rationing, and I think that there may be some problems with consumers using up all of their quota, long before they get another quota.
I've put it this way. How would Americans respond if ExxonMobil asked them to cutback on their gasoline consumption, and recommended rationing, so that ExxonMobil could export more gasoline from US refineries to consumers overseas? I have visions of angry SUV owners rioting at gas stations--sort of like the Iranian pictures we have seen.
In any case, I expect that the cash flow from export sales in a lot of countries to increase faster than net export volumes are declining, presenting quite a dilemma for exporting countries.
From the EB:
A few pieces on MEMRI.
Selective Memri
The ‘wiped off the map’ miss-translation came from the same place.
MEMRI Loss
But this is not a very accurate comparison. Supplying subsidized oil to the Iranian people is a cost to the Iranian government. This reduces their ability to provide those resources to people in a way that is more valuable to them and better targeted to those that need them.
If Iran said to its people that next year, they will lose $200 worth of oil subsidies, but gain $300 in cash, how would Iranians respond? Or what if the funds went to health care? Or other basic needs more important than the marginal liter of oil?
As total oil exports decline, the value of exports to each country increases as does the cost of subsidizing domestic use. It seems obvious that at some point the pressure to shift to product export becomes overwhelming.
I don't argue with the basic premise of the Export Land Model or its utility, however, extrapolating
it into eternity is just not realistic.
I didn't even notice that the article you pasted in provides the perfect evidence of my point. People are trading in their rationing cards because they don't want the cheap oil, the want the market value of that oil to spend on what they do want.
Sure there would be some brief disruption if oil subsizies were removed and the resources transferred to the people in ways they value more highly. But there would be a net improvement for the people of Iran.
The reason taxis always seem to be the ones protesting is because cheap oil subsidizes a taxi industry that is much larger than the market would support. This is an inefficiency that hurts the Iranian economy. So, a small portion of the population that is hurt by losing their benefits protests, but the rest gain.
Another great post - the ELM should be the biggest story in the USA and one of the biggest in the world.
However my comment is a tangent - I've heard that here in Hawaii we get our oil from Indonesia; if they're now a net importer, I wonder for how long they will be exporting here? Just curious if anyone on the list knows.
And don't get me started on the boneheadedness of importing oil to a state with huge untapped geothermal resources which is also ideal for wind, solar, ocean-thermal, waves, and about every other alternate energy source, in addition to not actually needing to heat or cool buildings....
I actually expect them to ultimately switch to coal here, since the trade winds blow all smoke offshore and it will be cheaper. When all a person really needs here is a bit of shade, a hammock, a ukelele and some breadfruit trees....
Hello Greenish,
Good points on the Hawaii situation. In my earlier posting series on the sequential building of biosolar habitats: I outlined why I thought the big island would be precisely the best place to start this essential paradigm shift. But unfortunately, I bet more golf courses and other nonsensical development is in the offing for Kona. It must be driving you and Jay Hanson nuts.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hey Bob, thanks for the comment.
The big isle is a Very Interesting place to think about, PPO. Some quite smart people see it as one of the best places in the world to be, and some other smart people think it wouldn't be much good at all.
I tend to the former opinion; currently I'm on Oahu for family reasons but own a few cheap lots on the big isle... which are getting cheaper, I actually wish I'd bought gold instead. Still, I may try to arrange to get a little bit of farm acreage over there.
However, I'd say that Puna is better than Kona side; more water, land is cheaper. I reckon the Kona golf courses will turn back into desert.
The potential for expanded geothermal near
Puna is impressive... but if you can believe it, the local "environmentalists" oppose it for "spiritual and aesthetic" reasons.... literally not wishing to insult the volcano goddess Pele, as well as some Nimbys who dislike the thought of the possible release of minor amounts of volcanic gases... from the world's largest active volcano. So a majority of the electricity is generated with oil from Indonesia.
Say goodnight, Gracie.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C09%5C11%5Cstory_11-...
Saudi Arabia keeps Oct crude supply steady