DrumBeat: September 9, 2007


Saudi Aramco reports oil output decline of 1.7 percent in 2006

Saudi Aramco in its Annual Review 2006 said that last year the company's crude oil production declined by 1.7 percent, while exports declined by 3.1 percent, compared with the previous year.


North Sea drilling activity at highest level In 10 years

North Sea consultancy Hannon Westwood released today its ‘Special Report: 2005-2006 UKCS E&A Drilling Activity’ – an analysis of two years of UKCS well activity. The report covers 116 E&A well spuds in 2005-2006, and indicates that despite popular industry perceptions, UKCS E&A well activity has returned to levels not seen since before 1998.


Shell refinery in Argentina could reopen - official

The Argentine government could allow Royal Dutch Shell's sole refinery in Latin America to reopen next week if it approves a clean-up plan the company is expected to present in the coming days, a government official said on Saturday.


Hot Air Power

It is pretty well established that, even in the worst case scenario, all of the oil and gas wells in the world are not going to run dry tomorrow or next year or in the next 50 years. If the world does run out of oil, which may happen sometime in the far distant future, there will be a very slow decline over many years. As the supply gets tighter, fossil fuel prices will gradually increase and the alternative sources of energy will become more and more economically competitive. At that point, there will be no need for government subsidies, because they will become profitable on their own.


A competitive electricity market hasn't materialized; Ohio must decide what to do next

Gov. Ted Strickland deserves credit for trying to slow the state's alarming in crease in electricity rates. If he succeeds, Ohio could avoid the rate shock that has hit other states.

Illinois, for example, abandoned government regulation and went to market last January. This summer, its legislature cobbled together a $1 billion bailout to keep angry rate-payers from resorting to pitchforks.


Letting city cars idle is banned in Westland

Because they don't have money to burn in Westland, they don't have fuel to burn.

So, in a move to save money, Mayor William R. Wild has banned city employees from idling city vehicles for more than 5 minutes. It's all about the high cost of gasoline and diesel fuel.


State inaction on climate is a grave dereliction of duty

Government exists to achieve tasks individuals cannot tackle alone. On the environmental crisis, it has badly failed.


Oil Prices Fuel Wild Ride For Energy Stocks

Even swooning credit and stock markets can't overshadow $70-a-barrel crude prices or emerging markets that can't seem to consume enough oil. Only a global recession could modify the scenario.


US pays the price of relying on foes for oil

There is little likelihood that any of the major producers will permit the foreign investment they need to step up production sufficiently to make a significant dent in the current price of oil. The Saudi royal family doesn’t want to antagonise the bin-Ladenites by inviting American companies in, although it relies on the American military to keep it in power. Mexico won’t allow American capital in, but wants to ship unlimited numbers of its workers out to the United States. The Bush administration acquiesces.


A Legacy Bush Can Control

President Bush has his cabinet and staff busily writing far-reaching rules to keep his priorities on the environment, public lands, homeland security, health and safety in place long after the clock strikes midnight and his presidential limousine turns into a pumpkin.


Biofuel Emissions: A complex debate about 'cleaner'

Using biofuels releases fewer pollutants across many - but not every - category.


Hunting the holy grail of fusion

Over the years, fusion’s lure of limitless energy has tempted many more scientists and politicians into the same trap of wishful thinking. In 2002 one set of researchers announced that they had achieved bubble fusion, while in 1989 another group announced that they had achieved cold fusion. All have ended in retractions, recrimination and humiliation.


Globalization and Climate Change

This is where globalization has set up roadblocks. Mitigating climate change and achieving stabilization of greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations — the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (U.N.F.C.C.C.) — will require deep reductions in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. This is possible only if developing countries have unrestricted access to clean energy technologies.


Upper Green River Valley: A View from Above (video)

This video illustrates some of the changes occurring in the Upper Green River Valley using the latest in satellite imagery, aerial photography, and Google Earth 3-d technology. Watch the video to get a first-hand look at the dramatic growth of gas and oil drilling in this ecologically important region, learn more about the impacts of this development on our public lands, and tour areas in the adjacent Wyoming Range where new drilling has recently been proposed by the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management.


Mali’s Farmers Discover a Weed’s Potential Power

When Suleiman Diarra Banani’s brother said that the poisonous black seeds dropping from the seemingly worthless weed that had grown around his family farm for decades could be used to run a generator, or even a car, Mr. Banani did not believe him. When he suggested that they intersperse the plant, until now used as a natural fence between rows of their regular crops — edible millet, peanuts, corn and beans — he thought his older brother, Dadjo, was crazy.


Biodiesel hero

It's been described as the antidote that will save humanity from itself.

The manna to our hunger for fuel, the miracle pill to our ravenous appetite for energy -- a wonder shrub.


The Philippines: Zubiri urges sugarcane planters to produce for biofuels

Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri has urged businessmen to invest in bioethanol production to prepare for the drop in tariffs on imported sugar.


BP aims beyond petroleum in Wyoming

BP officially went "beyond petroleum" on Saturday with a $5 million donation to the University of Wyoming's School of Energy Resources, including $2 million to fund wind energy development.


No fear of uranium glut, says Paladin

PALADIN Resources says it does not expect an over supply of uranium to come on to the market, after the United States President George W Bush expressed his pro-nuclear stance this week.


Pakistan awaits Bushehr power plant

Secretary of Pakistan's Ministry of Science and Technology says Pakistan is anticipating the inauguration of Bushehr nuclear power plant.

...Pervez Butt said the Bushehr power plant will be the largest nuclear electricity producing center in the region and the Muslim world and that its existence is an honor for all Islamic nations.


Anti-hydrogen worry doesn't hold water

For every alternative fuel proposed, there are people looking for problems.


Governor not ready to raise state motor fuels tax

Skyrocketing construction costs are limiting South Dakota's ability to rebuild highways, but Gov. Mike Rounds says he's not ready to support raising the state motor fuel tax that pays part of the tab for road projects.


Supplying electricity needs isn't "Us vs. Them" . . .

The solutions to our looming energy crisis must be born of consensus, not conflict. The coalition was formed to help build the kind of consensus that leads to workable, common-ground solutions. A key goal is to help achieve the greenhouse-gas reduction goals put forth by Gov. Corzine and approved by the Legislature. And we have made it clear from the outset that we see the license extension of the Oyster Creek nuclear energy plant in Lacey as critical to the success of that goal.


Mexico 2008 Budget Plan Sees 3.5% GDP Growth In 2008

The ministry estimated that Pemex's export crude will average $54.60 a barrel in 2007, with Pemex exporting 1.73 million barrels a day out of total production of 3.14 million barrels a day. Pemex current crude production is about 3.16 million barrels a day.


Nepal: Fuel shortage could subside

The two-weeks-long fuel crisis is expected to drop from Sunday, according to officials of state-owned Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC).

They expect the shortage to subside since the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) increased supplies on Friday and Saturday. That apart, the strike by drivers of fuel tankers has also ended.


Noose tightens in Burma

Burma's ruling junta on Sunday accused the opposition party of Aung San Suu Kyi of being behind recent protests against fuel price hikes and warned that it will brook no more dissent in the country.


America in the Middle East: An Interview with James Woolsey

Kuwait and Algeria don’t really have in their hands—although they are members of OPEC—the leverage that Saudi Arabia does with its reserve capacity. People may be right that we’re reaching peak oil dependence in the Middle East and are moving toward heavier demand coming from India and China. The Saudis may not be able to affect the price of oil the way they were once able nor be able to destroy their competitors, but a lot of investors think they can, and so there’s a certain lack of willingness to criticize and deal straightforwardly with the Saudis on some things for some people. I think it will be easier for people in the government and outside who want to be very blunt with the Saudis about human rights and a number of other issues to be blunt once it’s clear that we’re beginning to move away from oil dependency.


OPEC president says oil supply sufficient

International oil markets have enough oil, but a lack of capacity to refine it was contributing to high prices, OPEC's president told reporters on Sunday.


Most OPEC members see no need for output rise

Iran’s OPEC governor said on Sunday most OPEC members believed there was no need to increase production when they meet this week in Vienna, the official IRNA news agency reported.


Iran admits hurt by high domestic oil consumption

High domestic consumption is harming Iran’s oil industry on top of international financial pressures linked to its nuclear programme, a top oil official was quoted as saying on Sunday.

‘The consumption of energy is very high, efficiency is low. There is no energy saving and consumption habits and low prices are harmful,’ Iran’s representative to OPEC, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said in an interview with the weekly magazine Shahrvand.


Iraq Halts Output At Key Southern Oil Field On Violence

Iraq has halted crude oil production at a key southern oil field as tribesmen prevented workers from going to work, a senior Iraqi oil official said Sunday.

"Crude oil production from Majnoon oil field has been suspended for more than four weeks," the official told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone from Basra.

Majnoon had a daily production of 50,000 barrels a day prior to its suspension, he said.


Shell could take nuclear option to mine oil from Canadian tar sands

Shell is considering using nuclear power to operate its controversial tar sands programme in Canada.

Tar sands extraction – mining oil from a mixture of sand or clay, water and very heavy crude oil – uses a huge amount of energy and water.


Life After Oil

Last week, Aberdeen could lay reasonable claim to be the oil capital of the world as it hosted 35,000 delegates at the Offshore conference. But, as North Sea stocks decline, the Granite City is looking to cover new ground.


Blame-aholic Gasbags

Nary a politician in the summer of '06 was even slightly unsure why gas prices were punching through the $3-a-gallon threshold: The culprit was predatory, price-gouging oil-company executives - who obviously golf regularly with Dick Cheney.


Oil crisis looms large: expert

Presenting the Prof. Chelikani Chiranjivi Endowment Lecture on the energy scenario and petroleum refining industry in India at Andhra University, Prof. Chopra said 44 oil producing nations meet 99 per cent of world’s oil requirement (like petrol, diesel etc.,) and 24 of these nations had already crossed their peak oil production. He pointed out that 90 per cent of transport operation was carried out using oil.


You’re going green ...or else

“Peak oil informs everything,” says Goldsmith. “People ought to know about that, but they don’t. When it’s going to peak or if it’s happened already I don’t know, but if oil ran out tomorrow we would be stuffed. We depend on it for everything.”


Peak-Oil Awareness And The Larger Community

If the imminence of oil depletion is regarded as a given, the next question is that of preparation and survival. Commonly the issue of survival is dealt with in terms of the small group: the family or the ad-hoc band (complete with camo gear and pump-action shotguns?). The feeling, apparently, is that the larger community would be useless, or even hostile, toward the more-prepared group. Yet others hope to deal with the issue in terms of a broader geographic base, perhaps even national or global. To what extent would such a large-scale approach be practical? Is it possible to deal with peak oil on a broad demographic scale?


APEC climate call is just hot air, say activists

Environmental experts dismissed an agreement from Asia Pacific leaders setting "aspirational" goals on climate change as an empty gesture that may actually undermine efforts to halt global warming.

we’re reaching peak oil dependence

And I thought James Woolsey understands peak oil? Is he a techno-utopian? Or is he blowing smoke?

What he is is an Israeli-firster who is fully on board the neocon train to give the entire Middle East a good makeover that will i) neutralize Israeli's enemies, and ii) give the US control of the region and its oil resources.

He's been campaigning in this manner for quite some time, and is part of the effort to grow support in the US for 'fixing' Iran.

The way things are going, the US and the Middle East may part ways rather sooner than expected. You cannot "control" such a vast region when you don't even know how to speak to the locals!

If the Russian were to let the Iraqis or the Afghanis get hold of few hundred Strelas or Iglas that would be the end of air-power to all intents and purposes. This is what happened to the Soviets/Russians when they were in Afganistan and the US donated their NATO equivalent, the Stinger

The fact that the Russians have not done so is the ultimate proof that they are bending over backwards to help the US - despite all the nonsense being written about Putin. He has it in his power to do all of that by making a simple phone call.

It is not a STRELA but there are reports of a Russian anti-armour grenade being introduced into Iraq.

http://rawstory.com//news/2007/US_admits_new_insurgent_grenade_causing_0...

I am also not convinced that KSA is firmly aligned with the USA. If you were the major producer of oil would you wish to see a major customer establish control over a competing producer, increase supply, and drive down the price? This would clearly injure KSA interests.

I doubt that the word 'firmly' can be used in any present geopolitical situation. (sarcasm alert) Sheesh, so much easier to just type 'lol', but so frowned upon...

If I was an Islamic state holding the world's largest known oil basin I think I would go to the U.S., my largest single customer, and hold a private meeting with Bush, a christian, (was that supposed to be capitalised?) and ask him to protect me from the infidel Chinese, who have a land route to him and the world's largest population from which to garner cannon fodder, er, foot soldiers.

So, the U.S. plants bases in Afghanistan, directly on that land route. Sure, the Chinese could walk right through that relatively small contingent, but then tactical nukes could be easily justified.

But wait, I have serious political and social problems at home, so let's ask the friendly U.S. to park some troops next door. Can't bring them into my own country, homies wouldn't like that, but next door works just as well.

Now let's cut shipments to the Far East by oh, say 11%,so we can continue to ship full volume to support our friends in the U.S. Hmm, going to have to raise the Far East price a bit too, they'll pay anything, hehe.

Battle Lines being drawn? All in slow motion...

so let's ask the friendly U.S. to park some troops next door.

KSA did not wish the US to engage in the Iraqi war and is not sympathetic to the US "troops next door." King Abdullah has referred to the US occupation of Iraq as being "illegal." (I would argue that both the occupation and the war leading to that occupation are illegal but let's just stay with the KSA perspective for the moment.) The proclaimed intent of Bush is to further the process of democratization in the Middle East. Given that most of these states are feudal kingdoms this intent must be of concern. I believe that to make the presumption of an alignment of interests between KSA and USA would be an error.

If TOD readers conclude that the US desires to control a major ME oil province do you think KSA is blind to the same interpretation? I do not see much to support the notion of "friendship" between KSA and USA.

So here I am ready to engage in the most serious Chess game of my life, for all the marbles.

I have studied books on Openings (a must to be at all competitive). I have studied strategy and tactics. I have studied combinations and traps. I have studied the use of tempo, a fine point many ignore. I have analyzed games by the masters.

'My 60 Memorable Games' by Bobby Fischer has become my bible.

The game begins, relatively boring for the first dozen moves or so, both parties know the book moves. This game has been studied for centuries. The body of work is extensive. But then one player makes a departure from the literature, he thinks he has discovered something enterprising that may catch his opponent off guard. He starts setting up.

He will not make a direct move that indicates his true desire. It would be quite easy for the opponent to counter if he figures out the goal too soon. So the departure move is a fake, to mislead only.

In one of the games in the above mentioned book, it becomes clear that Mr. Fischer made a move early on in a game who's real purpose did not become evident for ANOTHER 17 MOVES!!!

He went on to win the game and the championship series that it took place in handily.

By being devious. And thinking farther ahead than his competitor.

I would think at this point it would be obvious that if you take any utterance of any of the participants at face value, you might as well fold up your board and go home.

It must make the behind close doors meetings extremely interesting, to say the least. Yes, no one can trust anyone else.

Yes, Bush says this and he says that. What does he really mean? I don't know. Likewise the other players comments, I don't know what to believe and what not to believe. I only no for sure not to take at face value any single thing they say.

They are moves on the board and more probable than not, setup to provoke a particular response for sometime later in the game.

Friendship between US and KSA? I don't know about that one, but I can see a certain mutuality of interest at this point. There is no guarantee that this exist, no. Nor that if it does that this will continue later into the late middle game or end game.

But it does rather seem to fit so far.

All quite fascinating, eh?

I like the chess analogy you use. Remember, Putin is an excellent chess player. With all the big players right now there are really two games going on simultaneously...the over, above the board game and the covert, under the board game.

KSA - USA - Overtly, they are maintaining their agreements made years ago at the birth of the Petro Age. Covertly, I would not be surprised if KSA has been nurturing stronger ties with other ME and Asian countries in case their pals in the USA allow this country to fall apart. They will throw their weight behind the top dog when the time comes.

dragonfly -

As a hopeless 'patzer', I like your comparison to chess.

It's a good reminder that when these people say something, it may or may not be true, but you can be certain that what they say is always intended to further t their agenda.

Regarding the way that Russia and the US approach this mess, someone recently said that while the US is playing poker, the Russians are playing chess. I guess what's implied is that the former is full of bluster and bluff, while the latter coldly calculating many moves ahead.

I find the notion that George W. Bush can think 17 moves ahead to be totally ludricous. I doubt his ability to think one move ahead. The man is a blithering, criminally incompetent fool. The analogy is one that will find support, no doubt, in the conspiracy-minded community but not elsewhere.

And yet hes president...and your not. Oh the irony lolz!

Ein Gott, Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer.

ET: If the guy is who you say he is, he has inexplicably managed to make an unprecendented amount of money for his cronies. What a mystery.

I find the notion that George W. Bush is actually in charge of the United States to be totally ludicrous.

The man is clearly a puppet, and barely fit enough for even that limited role.

Bush doesn't have to know a darn thing, even how to play the game. He just has to be able to parrot the words fed to him. Convincingly would be a nice plus, lol. Heck, have Bushie act weird just so no one takes him seriously. You can be sneaky right out in the open then.

Think Rand Corporation and the other think tanks that have been around for decades, buildings full of supercomputers gaming the situation full time, over and over. TPTB and their advisors jockeying for position, all with an ax to grind.

At this point, I don't think there is a single variable that could change that they haven't gamed to death already. If not they are incompetent and need to be replaced.

Chess is a beautiful, complex game, the Game of Kings. I actually was quite good at it at one time. Led my high school team to the Minnesota State Championship. Played 1st board every match (no one could take it away from me, and boy they tried, hehe) and never lost a single game in match or tournament play for 3 years. I was within 150 points or so of Master, probably would have made it in another year or so if I had continued playing tournaments.

This oil thing has even more variables, so fascinating, and I believe very apt analogies can be drawn from Chess.

When you see one of the players trumpeting to the press, what is he doing? Telling you the truth? Yea right...

No, he is saying something for a reason. He may be establishing a position for a move further into the game. He may be setting you up for a combination. He may be setting a trap for a player he doesn't like. You just don't know for sure. He may just be trying to take your eye off of something else, a distraction.

Like Chess, all you have is the pieces on the board for sure. Look at what your opponent does, not says. Analyze as objectively as possible. It is best if YOU move in such a way that he has to respond to you, thus dictating the flow of the game to your best advantage while you develop position. You can make an opponent's strategy meaningless if you beat him to the punch.

Use your pieces to their best advantage. Get your Rooks out of the corners and into the game, pair them up, use them, they are the most powerful pieces on the board next to the Queen. The US has a military machine that is unmatched at this point. You think they aren't going to use it?

However, don't look for the overt or obvious reasons behind moves. Be devious, like Fischer, look for the deeper possibilities. Misdirection can be extremely important, the longer you can fool your opponent, the less able he will be to respond effectively when he discerns the main threat.

The main real tool the Saudis have is production. Let's see what they say this week, and then wait to see if they really follow it up afterwards, lol. This time lag between words and action in this part of the game is tiresome, but can not forget what they say, have to see if their actions later are real.

Production increase? Don't bet on it, I don't think they can for more than a very short period, a few months at best maybe. What excuse will they have this time? Outside Opec projects coming online? Ethanol stealing volume from crude? Refining capacity bottlenecks? How about blaming it on the oil sands? Market well supplied?

Yea right to all of the above. Give us something new for the talking heads to cuss and discuss, please.

Or maybe, increase output a few hundred K bpd and trumpet to the world about how much spare capacity you have. Would not be at all surprised by this. Surely they have a little spare capacity left and this could give their mouthpieces in the MSM some real ammo to put the hurt on us POilers.

I would love to be on the inside in this game. I think I could maybe even contribute meaningfully if given access to all the facts. Without putting my Rooks in harms way. Sometimes the threat of a move can be better than the move itself.

In one of the games in the above mentioned book, it becomes clear that Mr. Fischer made a move early on in a game who's real purpose did not become evident for ANOTHER 17 MOVES!!!

I don't play these games because every move has implications down the line, and once you realize this, whatever charm the game has, will completely go away.

:)

Ahh, but that's what makes it so interesting, the depth. This isn't a checkers game we have here folks. This is the real McCoy for all the marbles.

No actual depth, as these are all human-contrived rules. About as interesting as working permutations to no real end.

Think Rand Corporation and the other think tanks that have been around for decades, buildings full of supercomputers gaming the situation full time, over and over. TPTB and their advisors jockeying for position, all with an ax to grind.

I agree Relayer,

This is the point that I don't think everyone understands or under values it's meaningfulness.

I think we should suppose that they know extremely well that we are in the End Game of the Growth Paradigm strategy economic model. I think each of their endings resulted in a Collapse.

If that is true, then you would try to stear and position the ending process to your best advantage.

Look at today's events thru that lens, Not the "They are total idiots, Can't they see....." viewpoint.

Exactly, don't make the mistake to presume anyone involved here is stupid. They've made it to the top of the heap haven't they?

Boy I hope there is something waiting for us besides collapse, but you just don't bring your Rooks out too early in the game. They are vulnerable to being threatened by lesser pieces and may force you to make responses in undesirable ways. It could mean that we are closer to the endgame than we think.

I have the terrible feeling that lesser worldwide population is somehow in the cards.

Case in point...that big, fat rook sitting there in Iraq being swarmed by a bunch of pawns.

relayer
thanks for this chess analogy and the idea of bringing the rooks out early. I've long felt that Afghanistan and iraq were horrible tactical maneuvers, unless peak is right now. will the next rook come out in Africa? or can a bishop and knight handle that?
anyway thanks

I don't know how much you guys saw of your President's performance at the APEC taxpayer funded extravagansa, but he's not a very good parrot & at face value seems like a complete imbecile. He even referred to the event as "an Opec meeting".
Some whiz has probably put a bunch of his mis-takes on youtube i'll have a look.
Actually imbeciles can be cute & childish, psychologically inert fits him better.

...or the lens on the political left that is pissing me off right now for its naive stupidity: "Bush & Cheney are evil psychopaths that live to bathe in the blood of the innocent" or some riff on that basic line of thought. It's one of the things that switched me off to DailyKos and made it more of a once-every-now-and-again-Kos for me.

Isn't it just a LITTLE BIT possible that things are a LITTLE BIT more complicated and less manichaean than this? Isn't it just a LITTLE BIT likely that there is some sort of logical line of thought and reasoning behind the decisions of those in power today - whether you agree with the decisions, or the execution or think it's all wrong for so many reasons - rather than them just wanting to kill as many people as possible, with no rational reason behind any of their actions... drives me nuts.

One of the reasons I like the contributors on here - having an awareness of Peak Oil and the coming complications thereof helps people understand that there is more going on than the childish political reporting and debate in the US nowadays.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man

Did you mean 'Machiavellian'?

But I agree that the conspiracy theorists on so many sites do little to advance rational discussion. I think Bush and Cheney have their own agenda and have little regard for the numbers of people who are killed as a result, but I don't think they desire to kill people. They are just extremely efficient at rationalizing the deaths and destruction (collateral damage in the war on terror that the terrorist started, necessary consequences of the need to spread 'democracy', or whatever).

What in the world are you guys talking about? As a country, as a society, what differentiates the USA? It is about getting the money, period. Has GWB successfully made a fortune for his cronies, Yes or No? Conspiracy theorists, desire to kill people? Why do you think GWB's father continues to work hard- to advance the general welfare of the planet? Open your eyes.

No, I mean Manichaean... completely different thing. Basically splitting the world into good and evil (and of course assuming oneself on the side of good).

I thought i'd post a dictionary or wikipedia link to the word for you - but even better I found this Wikipedia entry on Manichaean Paranoia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manichaean_paranoia
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man

RA--

Thanks for the link; I always appreciate learning new things. And yes, that is a much more appropriate word for Bush and his camp.

Rick

Chess is a limited game. Computers are already getting up to speed in it. Life, however, more resembles the complexity of Go.

but the point stands - the canonical form of the problem is the same... ultimately it's a highly complex calculation... and by understanding the likely outcomes of one tree or other better than your opponent, and pushing them down that tree, is a great challenge...

so it's a good analogy for what's going on here...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man

Very true. To start with, chess has fixed rules. Life is a bit more complicated than that surely!

There is, theoretically, no role for luck in chess - how different from the real world.

I read once that a Chinese Emperor sent a Persian Shah a chess set. The Persian returned a backgammon set with words to the effect of "this is more like it". I searched on Google but could not find a reference.

Oh yes, life is much more complicated now and then. This situation for instance.

But the logic and analogy does stand I believe. What one player does means much more than what he says, etc.

There is till some luck in Chess, sadly, the luck of which opponent you draw for a game in a tournament for instance.

But yes, that was one thing I liked about it, minimal chance involved. You start out equal, fixed rules, just you and the opponent. Who will come out on top?

If there were such a game it would probably prioritize efficency in energy use since that must gives more options to play successfully in any direction. Burning thru your stores ASAP withouth getting anything for it must be like avoiding making good deals, a way to bankruptcy.