DrumBeat: September 11, 2007


Matt Simmons: Force All Oil Producers to Give Transparent Data

At the next meeting of the leaders of the world’s developed countries, a resolution should be passed requiring all oil producers – both state-owned and privately-held – to provide quarterly production data that have been independently verified.

So says Matthew Simmons, the energy investment banker who has railed in the past about how the failure of Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers to provide transparent production data has left the world in a lurch, unable to know whether it can maintain an adequate supply of oil in the face of burgeoning demand, especially from China and India. Such uncertainty has led to indecision about whether the world should invest the huge sums of money necessary to develop alternative transportation fuel sources.

Matt Simmons: Look to The Oceans for New Sources of Oil

While the power of ocean waves and currents increasingly is being counted as a source of non-polluting electrical generation, Matthew Simmons says the sea’s bounty doesn’t stop there.

Simmons, the Houston energy investment banker whose concerns about a sharp falloff in global oil production have made him one of the most recognized – and controversial – figures in energy, told EnergyTechStocks.com that the micro algae found in oceans has much higher oil content than either corn or palm oil, two of the world’s leading sources for ethanol and biodiesel, respectively.


Mass Transit: Separating Delusion from Reality

In a congressional hearing on September 5, Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters noted that 40 percent of highway user fees collected from drivers are diverted for uses other than roads and bridges. Committee members correctly attributed that figure to Heritage Foundation research. Representative Peter DeFazio (D–OR) defended the diversion of highway funds, noting that half of the diverted money goes to transit programs intended to alleviate congestion and reduce road use. That intention, however, does not determine the results. Transit spending has failed to reduce traffic and wasted money that should have been spent on increasing road capacity.


Senate OKs $1 billion to repair bridges

The infusion of bridge repair funds would be paid for by tapping the dwindling reserves of the highway trust fund. Gasoline tax revenues are coming in below estimates and are unlikely to be able to fund highway programs at the levels set forth by the 2005 highway bill.


IBM's Billion-Dollar Energy Pledge Highlights Data Explosion Danger

this target, while admirable, also serves to highlight the sheer scale of the challenge the IT sector faces in trying to limit its environmental impact.

In terms of carbon emissions IBM is spending a $1bn a year to stand still. To simply ensure its data centers' emissions do not continue to rise as demand for computing capacity rises the company is having to embark on a massive infrastructure overhaul involving over 850 staff and countless new technologies.


Collecting Natural Gas Savings

Lynn Millsaps, owner of Loudon Speedwash Laundromats in Loudon, Tenn., decided to take a different route to decreasing utility usage. He took the knowledge he had of heating and air conditioning and a little elbow grease and came up with his own method of providing his dryers with preheated intake air.

Things have gone well. HIs greenhouse-like solar collector on the side of his coin laundry constructed mostly from materials from a standard building supply store, has customers talking.


The Philippines: EO declares 7 geothermal sites as economic zones

Fresh from the APEC meeting in Sydney, Australia, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo signed an Executive Order declaring the existing seven geothermal sites nationwide as areas of industrial economic zones.


India - N-Deal: The Power Play

Unless uninterrupted supply of gas comes to India very cheap or nuclear power plants are built in quick succession, India could well be the victim of the drag-down effect. Especially since the proposed hydroelectric projects have run into problems, with social and political issues preventing quick implementation.


Iraq to Privatize Electricity

Two of Iraq's many needs right now are more electricity and more investment. A law being drafted could satisfy both, paving the way for foreign and domestic private companies to build power plants, a step toward fully privatizing the electricity sector.


The State of Green

Here's a look at some alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, and ethanol, and the challenges companies in those areas face.


India: IOC to limit petrol pumps to 550 this year

“In past three years, IOC and other public sector oil marketing firms had set up large number of petrol pumps, the growth being 85%. But with the companies making losses on fuel sale and private competition also decelerating, we have also decided to limit setting up of new petrol pumps,” said IOC Executive Director (Retail) A.M.K Sinha.


Colony of Antarctic penguins nears extinction

Today, the Adélies outnumber people in this icy patch of the world by 100 to 1. The ratio sounds impressive until Fraser notes that the penguin population has shrunk by 80 percent since he began studying it in 1974, and that he expects the knee-high birds to be extinct in eight years.

What's to blame? Fraser, president of the Polar Ocean Research Group, says global warming is part of the problem because it has made it harder for the penguins to forage and breed.


Solar-powered Antarctic climate base unveiled

A climate change research station is being shipped to Antarctica that builders say will be the world's first zero-emissions polar science station.


Robert L. Hirsch: Planning for the Mitigation of Maximum World Oil Production

A framework is needed for planning the mitigation of oil shortages created by world oil production reaching a maximum and going into decline. Some argue that normal market evolution will be adequate to avoid shortages. We assume that will not be the case.

...Considerations of oil shortages, as distinguished from simply considering oil price increases, necessitates dealing in an area in which there is no recent experience, since the world today is different from 1973 and 1979, when brief shortages occurred. We approach this challenge with the belief expressed in Oil Shockwave: “It only requires a relatively small amount of oil to be taken out of the system to have huge economic and security implications."


The Disinformation Society - Kunstler

One question that readers ask me often is why the mainstream media is doing such a poor job of reporting the nexus of the global energy emergency and the turmoil in global finance. I maintain my "allergy" to conspiracy theories. There isn't any clique of top-hatted Wall Street biggies with monocles joining with with gray-suited CIA-types to intimidate editors with tongs and electrodes. American culture has become self-dis-informing.


More refining needed to process Alberta output

U.S. refineries must be expanded to handle a rising tide of crude-oil imports from Alberta's tar sands, the world's second-biggest oil deposit, says John Hofmeister, Royal Dutch Shell PLC's U.S. chair.

Shell, Saudi Aramco, ConocoPhillips, BP PLC and Marathon Oil Corp. plan to spend a combined $15 billion (U.S.) to expand refineries from Michigan to Texas to process more low-grade oil from the tar sands.


Rebels Blow Up Pipelines in Mexico, Disrupting Service

For the third time in three months, saboteurs blew up several pipelines belonging to Mexico’s state oil monopoly, disrupting service to dozens of factories and briefly rattling financial markets, officials said, but not killing anyone.


Saudi-like oil monopoly 'ultimate goal' for Nigeria: minister

Nigeria's energy minister said on Monday that the Saudi Arabian state-owned oil monopoly Aramco was a model for his country's restructuring national oil producer.


Response to the Government’s consultative document “The Future of Nuclear Power”

Ever wondered if the clock was ticking regarding a secure electricity supply? Could new nuclear power stations actually increase carbon emissions? Could the looming shortage of uranium represent the biggest challenge to a nuclear renaissance? These are just a few of the questions answered by John Busby in his response to the Government’s consultative document “The Future of Nuclear Energy”.


Short on Labor, Farmers in U.S. Shift to Mexico

A sense of crisis prevails among American farmers who rely on immigrant laborers, more so since immigration legislation in the United States Senate failed in June and the authorities announced a crackdown on employers of illegal immigrants. An increasing number of farmers have been testing the alternative of raising crops across the border where there is a stable labor supply, growers and lawmakers in the United States and Mexico said.


Green fleets, fat profits on display at Frankfurt show

Opening the world's biggest car show with raft of optimistic reports on improved earnings and greater fuel efficiency, executives from carmakers around the world were bubbling with confidence about their greener fleets and fatter profits.


Toyota confident of saying ahead of hybrid pack: Watanabe

Toyota is confident of retaining its leading position in hybrid cars despite growing competition, the Japanese firm's chairman said Monday ahead of the International Motor Show (IAA) here.

If the number of hybrid cars grows it will be good for the environment, Katsuaki Watanabe told a press conference three days before the 62nd IAA opened to the public.


OPEC and Peak Oil: Global Warming Ain’t The Only Reason to Go Green

This week, News Editor Dan Shapley presents The Daily Green’s first look at Peak Oil. We’ve timed it to coincide with OPEC’s September meeting, where all manner of postulations about oil production and prices will fill our screens. We think that regardless of what the OPEC ministers decide about output, it’s time that the discussion about Peak Oil and its implications for this country’s economy, lifestyle as well as the climate debate goes mainstream. It’s far too important not be discussed around dinner tables nationwide as well as in the presidential debates of this election cycle.


Peak Oil Now? Airing Saudi Arabia’s Dirty Little Secret

When the OPEC cartel begins its meeting Sept. 11, some analysts expect Saudi Arabia’s dirty little secret will come out: It, and the world with it, has hit peak oil.

Oil, these analysts think, is running short — leaving a yawning gap between supply and demand that will eventually send the world economy into a tailspin and could even lead to war.

Saudi Arabia, the line of reasoning goes, will refuse to increase oil production not because it doesn’t want to — but because it can’t.

“If they actually do say they’re not increasing their supply for this that or the other reason, it would give a clue that it’s a problem,” said Gail Tverberg, who blogs as Gail The Actuary on The Oil Drum blog, a leading proponent of the Peak Oil theory.


OPEC considers modest oil output rise

OPEC was meeting on Tuesday to consider a modest rise in oil output proposed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states in a gesture to consumers worried by the economic impact of $77 oil and rapidly diminishing stocks.

But the plan to add 500,000 barrels per day of oil had yet to convince all OPEC ministers and discussions were continuing, a delegate said. Venezuela, Algeria and Libya said ahead of the talks they were not in support of increasing supplies.


Peak Oil: Why It Matters and What We Can Do About It

Some analysts believe the world is at or near hitting peak oil — the point at which so much oil has been pumped that demand begins to outstrip supply, leaving a yawning and persistent gap.

In a nutshell, here’s why hitting peak oil is a concern...


Sinopec to import 60,000 tons of gasoline in September

Sinopec, China's biggest oil refiner, is planning to import 60,000 tons of gasoline in September to help meet domestic demand, said an official of the company on Tuesday.


Rosneft warns China over oil supply post 2010

State-controlled Rosneft, Russia's largest oil firm, said on Tuesday it will not renew its existing crude oil supply contract to China after 2010 unless China offers better terms.


Petro-Canada Bets Big on Oil Sands

Sam La Bell, vice president at Toronto-based Veritas Investment Research Corp., still has doubts about the oil sands project. In an August research note, he calls the recent cost estimates "a careful bit of subterfuge" to disguise borderline economics. The company didn't return calls for comment.


Oil and Corruption in Iraq Part II: Smuggling Thrives in Basra

Police and government officials are accused of taking a cut of the lucrative oil smuggling business run by clans and overseen by militia groups in the southern city of Basra.

Rival Shia groups have divided up control of the city's resources - including the country's only seaport as well as its largest oilfields - in a precarious power arrangement which could implode at any time. The warring militias control the illegal oil exports from Basra, the gateway to Iran and the Gulf states, and are reportedly linked to global networks.


Iraq Oil Min: Hunt Oil Deal with Kurd Government Illegal

Hunt Oil Co.'s agreement with Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdish region to explore for oil is illegal, Iraq's oil minister Hussein al-Shahristani said Monday, in his first public reaction to the deal announced over the weekend.


Big Houses Are Not Green: America's McMansion Problem

The recent mansion boom produced millions of energy-wasting homes with thousands of square feet that Americans don't need - not the behavior of a society that's thinking about a sustainable future.


Expert says climate change will spread global disease

Climate change will have an overwhelmingly negative impact on health with possibly one billion more people at risk from dengue fever within 80 years, an expert said Tuesday.


As Brazil's rain forest burns down, planet heats up

As vast tracts of rain forest are cleared, Brazil has become the world's fourth-largest producer of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming, after the United States , China and Indonesia , according to the most recent data from the U.S.-based World Resources Institute .

And while about three-quarters of the greenhouse gases emitted around the world come from power plants, transportation and industrial activity, more than 70 percent of Brazil's emissions comes from deforestation.

A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.

In her new book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, Naomi Klein uses the example of public sector dismantling in both New Orleans and Iraq as an illustration of Milton Friedman's idea that crisis presents an opportunity to push a pre-existing agenda and achieve sweeping change. This is both an important point and a timely warning, as the developing international credit crunch is arguably approaching a critical phase. The inability to roll over short term commercial paper, often backed by dubious loans, is presenting an enormous challenge to a banking system short of cash. The coming economic upheaval could be sufficient to precipitate far-reaching socio-political changes on a global scale.

On the energy front, CIBC World Markets claims that Canada has 50-70% of the investable oil reserves in the world, for oil majors increasingly shut out of producing regions. However, those reserves suffer from a shortage of pipeline capacity for both inputs and output. Saskatchewan decides against 'clean coal' on cost grounds, but continues to maintain a low royalty, low tax regime for natural resources. In the meantime, the Canadian wind industry is being consolidated in fewer and fewer hands, and there is strong resistance to uranium mining in rural Ontario.

As for environmental news, Holland is developing a 200 year plan for climate change, but with the assumption that sea-levels will rise very little despite evidence of rapid change in Greenland's icesheets. There is considerable concern over the potential for warming to activate microbial oxidation of the organic matter of the arctic tundra, which could ignite a devastating spiral of positive feedback.


Naomi Klein: The Shock Doctrine

In one of his most influential essays, Friedman articulated contemporary capitalism's core tactical nostrum, what I have come to understand as "the shock doctrine". He observed that "only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change". When that crisis occurs, the actions taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. Some people stockpile canned goods and water in preparation for major disasters; Friedmanites stockpile free-market ideas. And once a crisis has struck, the University of Chicago professor was convinced that it was crucial to act swiftly, to impose rapid and irreversible change before the crisis-racked society slipped back into the "tyranny of the status quo". A variation on Machiavelli's advice that "injuries" should be inflicted "all at once", this is one of Friedman's most lasting legacies....

....I started researching the free market's dependence on the power of shock four years ago, during the early days of the occupation of Iraq. I reported from Baghdad on Washington's failed attempts to follow "shock and awe" with shock therapy - mass privatisation, complete free trade, a 15% flat tax, a dramatically downsized government. Afterwards I travelled to Sri Lanka, several months after the devastating 2004 tsunami, and witnessed another version of the same manoeuvre: foreign investors and international lenders had teamed up to use the atmosphere of panic to hand the entire beautiful coastline over to entrepreneurs who quickly built large resorts, blocking hundreds of thousands of fishing people from rebuilding their villages. By the time Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, it was clear that this was now the preferred method of advancing corporate goals: using moments of collective trauma to engage in radical social and economic engineering.

It follows as a natural corollary that it behooves the followers of Friedman (and Machiavelli) to create such shocks, not just exploit them, when possible and it benefits them. Could that ever happen? Nah.

Rome, 475 AD.

"Within 19 months, with most of the city's poor residents still in exile, New Orleans' public school system had been almost completely replaced by privately run charter schools."

This is about .01% of the net impact of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans because of Katrina. You could take any disaster and find some kind of profit or change from it that was economically advantageous to someone. The world isn't ever perfectly static except in the dreams of planners of command economies.

New Orleans is a City of Great Positives and Great Negatives.

Pre-Katrina, our Public Schools were a Great Negative (along with Crime & Summer Weather). Twice the citizens voted in "Reform" School Boards, and each turned into self serving grafters & grand standers.

Very few locals object to the mix of improving schools we have today.

A public elementary school 7 blocks from me may develop into the best public elementary school in the nation. All classes but English & Geography are taught in French by native French speakers (Supported by the Republic of France). The goal is for all students to be fluent in English & French, and with three years of Spanish and two years of a non-Latin alphabet language (Russian, Chinese, Japanese) by the time they enter 7th grade.

Students have a choice of the remaining public schools, public schools taken over by the State of Louisiana the year before Katrina for academic failure (the worst of the worst), a variety of charter schools and private schools (half pre-K). The Catholic schools are giving a number of "free rides" for displaced children returning.

Best Hopes for Better Education,

Alan

Here's one upon which I thought Alan Drake and/or Westexas might have some comments.

Gas Costs Spark High-Speed Rail Interest

Congress is considering a six-year Amtrak funding bill co-sponsored by 40 senators that would provide the first matching federal grants for rail projects. The measure proposes $100 million in first-year grants, paltry considering that California alone needs $40 billion for a mammoth bullet train project that would link San Francisco and Sacramento with Los Angeles and San Diego.

Some argue federal money would be better spent to research electric-powered cars and other cutting-edge travel alternatives, rather than the ribbons of steel that triggered America’s westward expansion in the 1800s.

“Solutions to our current problems have to be found, not imposed from previous centuries. High-speed rail is just a polished version of 19th century technology,” said William Garrison, co-author of “Tomorrow’s Transportation” and a retired civil engineering professor at the University of California at Berkeley.

But supporters contend high-speed trains could be an important alternative, rivaling even air travel once home-to-airport travel times and delays cause by airport security measures are taken into account.

No mention of electric trains at all...what is the fascination?

Except for California's super train plan. They said they might carry 117 Million passengers by 2030, it could be built in as little as 15 years...at little math...so it would open in 2023-2025.

Alan, I think your ideas are one my greatest hopes...these lead times are frightening.

BTW, Alan have you ever thought of building an information website (promoting your ideas and yourself as a consultant)?

I ask because sometimes I come across decision makers and would love to point them somewhere to get started in electrification of transport.

Heck, I would even host it on our company servers if it would help. I just grabbed electricrailnow.com and electricrailnow.info for you.

Sorry for derailing the thread a bit. Alan's ideas are one of the major proactive things we can do(next to conservation).

Sorry for derailing the thread a bit

An excellent pun :-)

ATM, I would suggest

http://www.lightrailnow.org/

even though it does not cover all aspects.

There are some other sites.

Ohers have urged me as well, although I find writing painful & slow, several people say that I write well. I am looking at this.

I am not a fan of High Speed Rail in the USA. I prefer "semi-HSR" that can run passengers at 110-125 mph top speeds and light & medium density freight on the same tracks. I see freight as the higher priority.

I am active on stuff behind the scenes. Two long shots for 1,000+ mile railroad electrification programs in the works.

I am booked till ASPO-Houston, but let me think this over. I am preparing handouts for the conference ATM, and the T21 model using my ideas with Millennium Institute.

It has been a LOT of work to develop ideas from concepts to firm ideas. The hard #s from the T21 model will help a lot IMHO.

My two best papers are

http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&It...

http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2007-04a.htm

Point them there.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Ok.

Well, I got those domains anyways.

Maybe TOD could put together a compilation of electric rail discussions under them.

It is not a rejection, let me think about it.

I also think a broader subject, such as Peak Oil & Global Warming Mitigation may be more appropriate. Many of my concepts (a non-GHG North American grid for example) fall into that rubric.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Didn't mean to put you on the spot either. There here if you want em.

these lead times are frightening

Me Too !

The US federal funding process is designed to ration very limited funding by queue (waiting & paperwork).

OTOH, the French build their trams in 3 to 4 years time.

A new Mayor in Lyon promised two new tram lines with broad brush statements "from here to there" and "there to there".

Three years, five months later he cut ribbons on both.

Perhaps we need to import retired French bureaucrats !

Alan

You missed the link above...

Mass Transit: Separating Delusion from Reality

...whose author states that light rail may not be an answer.
Some quotes:

The massive diversion of highway money to transit did not reduce traffic congestion or road use. In every one of the nation’s urban areas with a population of more than one million (where more than 90 percent of transit ridership occurs), road use increased per capita and by no less than one-third. Even worse, peak-period traffic congestion rose by 250 percent.

Also takes exception to the fallacy of tax monies "earmarked" for specific venues:

"40 percent of highway user fees collected from drivers are diverted for uses other than roads and bridges."

The author clearly has a pro roads agenda but if light rail has such great potential and appeal, why aren't the ones mentioned more successful?
It says alot to me that people would rather be stuck in their cars in bumper to bumper, rush hour traffic than hop a train.

"..if light rail has such great potential and appeal, why aren't the ones mentioned more successful?"

Because they were being examined during this period of extremely cheap gasoline. We haven't had the compelling NEED to make our transportation more economical. Not only do we have the momentum of this illusion that cars give us 'freedom' (cut to bumper to bumper images, circling blocks umpteen times to find a spot, paying for fuel, insurance, maintenance, etc.. ), but it was also being forcefully 'endorsed' by investments in roadway saturation and not transit saturation, both from government and industry. Yes, consumers made choices, but what choices were presented to them, what kind of public information helped form their priorities?

Those cities that have developed light rail at least have a degree of flexibility, whereas towns and cities that ripped up their tracks and terraformed exit ramps over/through old rail pathways will be facing anything from mighty bills to possibly extinction depending on how they can adapt to changed fuel-transport-food realities at the speed that the changes hit us.

Unfotunately there is not much flexibility in the light rail system itself since, as the article maintains, peoples workplaces are as far flung as their living arrangements.

Light rail would be best suited to locales where the centers of commerce are centrally located. I doubt many places in the USA can lay claim to that condition.

Asking society to reformulate its economic activity along a mass transit light rail while under the crushing auspices of Peak Oil seems a bit farfetched to me.

No, conservation is the key here, hybrid buses, rationing, rideshares and maybe even private industry will step up, GM is saying the Volt will be ready for road testing next year.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070911/BUSINESS01/7091...

Like it or not we are stuck with an unbelievably large prior investment in the form of our road and highway system.

What makes sense is to leverage that investment by setting high CAFE requirements for every vehicle using that system, including long haul and commercial trucking which should be phased out in conjunction with expanding the heavy rail system for moving goods and materials.

Some may argue that Jeavons Paradox will offset any gains in fuel economy but that has yet to be tested in the face of declining resources.

"Light rail would be best suited to locales where the centers of commerce are centrally located. I doubt many places in the USA can lay claim to that condition

... Asking society to reformulate its economic activity along a mass transit light rail while under the crushing auspices of Peak Oil seems a bit farfetched to me."

And yet you still have to compare that to 'Asking society to continually MAINTAIN it's mammoth and capillary system of paved roadways and individual vehicles, and the resulting expenses of trucking ourselves and our supplies out to all these diffused points' .. while under the crushing auspices of Peak Oil. The original setup is what's farfetched. The amount of cheap energy we've had access to is outrageous, but now we're built around it as our central assumption. The volt may be great, but it still needs a terribly costly road system in place to do us much good.

Yes, we need massive conservation and road-based mass-transit options as ways to get by as we figure out how to live in a world with more modest energy availability, but we also need to be able to consider the big pills that must be swallowed. We need durable and efficient transit systems designed for the long view, and rail and light rail have proven themselves in this. It's not a silver bullet, but it is the most energy-efficient way to move things over land and must still play an essential role in a long-term investment to keep things moving. I believe in Transit-Oriented-Development, and structuring the communities around the most efficient forms of transportation, but this is a gradual shift at both ends. You add some trolley lines, some people can walk and bike to them, but there are still roads, buses and cars to cover the distance, as long as you can afford to.. Businesses that aren't near train lines may tend to move closer, lobby for spurs, set up shuttles.

We've got to make a very poorly designed country come back in line. Rail and Light rail will be an incentive for that, with a real capacity for delivering transit with reliably few calories. This is a huge country, and it's completely insane that we have any argument about the sense in using the most efficient and durable means to get around it. Take your bike to the train station.. I want an electric car, too, but I'm more than happy to plan for using the 21st century versions of these 19th century technologies for the lion's share of my transport needs. It's funny how that article quoted the academic (Stanford?) saying rail is a step backwards, and we need to go forward. Going from a less-efficient mode to a more efficient mode is going to save you fuel in either direction, forward or reverse. But of course, reverse is anathema in a country that is addicted to racing around in ever-faster circles..

Regards,
Bob Fiske

Very well stated Bob Fiske !

Just to restate some obvious points. Almost all US cities (all ?) were once centrally located (remember "downtowns") and those bones still remain. The "Creative Destruction" of American economy and Urban Form will accelerate post-Peak Oil IMHO. We will NOT be frozen in whatever form we find ourselves in today.

Those offices and industries that are located non-sustainably will either relocate or stop. With reduced economic activity, some economic centers will be abandoned. Those office buildings 3 blocks from a rail station are unlikely to be abandoned.

The "market" will reform rapidly around rail when it is valued. Washington DC added a new station (New York Avenue) to an old line. A half dozen office buildings sprang up !

After two decades of minimal TOD around Miami's first elevated Rapid Rail. Miami voted to expand it greatly (to 103 miles). In 2004, I counted 15 of 23 construction cranes within 3 blocks of a Metro station.

Trees will not stop growing post-Peak Oil. Construction will slow but not stop. We could build twice as many homes with half the resources as we do today

I figure that a high efficiency 5-plex (2 story. 3 + 2 units, average 450 sq ft each, no parking except bicycles) would take about as much resources as the average 2,497 sq ft single family home in the USA with supporting sewers, streets, etc. and garage required for sprawl. The extra insulation, geothermal heat pump, expensive windows of the post-Peak construction could offset the energy required for the supporting infrastructure of the sprawl. Add some 3 story homes into the mix as well.

I have read that retail space/capita has expanded almost 10x since 1950. I can believe this. Shopping malls with a sea of parking and no transit will likely empty.

Buses are not a solution, except as short feeders to rail, due to their relatively high use of FF.

Best Hopes for Energy Efficiency !

Alan

Hopefully this gets to you, I've been away for a few days.

This is a huge country, and it's completely insane that we have any argument about the sense in using the most efficient and durable means to get around it.

When it comes to separating people from their cars, you have yet to see the insanity.
As much ingrained into JoeSixpacks non-negotiable right to unlimited amounts of cheap gas is his right to drive any type of vehicle he damn well pleases.
So unless you are advocating bringing this version of T.O.D. to being over at minimum the next 50 years or so you are badly overestimating Joe's ability to see the "sense" in your proposal.
No matter WHAT the reason, people will rebel at the loss of their private transportation.
It would take a HUGE propanganda effort to convince Americans otherwise.

Also missing in the publics mind about the coming scarcity is the appalling lack of leadership neccessary to take on the powerful vested interests aligned against rail (although the limits rail imposes on travel would be an appealing benefit to any future dictator "Your papers, please!").

The doomer in me scoffs at the notion "it was done in 1907, it can be done in 2007" attached to rail.
What was done a century ago was done while we were on the upslope of energy and materials production.
Previous societies that have peaked have rarely, if ever, entered the downslope in a peaceable, cooperative fashion.

So IMO you've got quite a bit arguing left to do.

The author, Wendell Cox (along with Rubin) are long time paid shills for the Road Lobby and I do not bother to read him anymore, due to his habitual use of half truths (use transit statistics from a year with a transit strike to show a declining trend in transit use is one example that comes to mind). Here we would call him a troll.

Transit SYSTEMS (see Washington DC for a system at least partially completed) are needed rather than isolated lines for a transformative impact.

Bus Rapid Transit routinely fails to meet predicted ridership goals, Light Rail routinely exceeds them (and most light rail systems are short of rolling stock because of federal rules, also suppressing ridership and causing excessive crowding).

Car traffic will be forever crowded till fuel issues force them off the road. Uncongested road space draws a crowd.

Vancouver BC has ZERO urban freeways and functions quite well. Hopefully other cities will follow their lead and dynamite existing freeways.

Portland OR is well along to building a partial system once the Green Line (under construction) is completed. East of the Willamette River they will have 4 lines, 1.5 lines + streetcar west of the River.

Portland has wisely kept from expanding freeways (and also encouraged TOD & established Urban Growth Boundaries) . I was told that commuters from Washington have 8 lane freeway in WA, 6 on bridge and in Portland till first exit to Light Rail Park & Ride, 4 lanes thereafter.

This is not calculated to make commuters from Washington sprawl happy. It is calculated to reduce commuting from a state w/o an income tax into a state w/o a sales tax and reduce overall road demand in Portland (paid for by Portland & Oregon).

Portland has benefited economically and environmentally from this reduced emphasis on auto travel. The Pearl is a TOD area that has grown from nothing with the streetcar. Portland has the highest % bicycling commuting in the nation 3.5%. Overall Portland has a reputation as a very livable community which helps economically.

No other American city can be said to have built a Light Rail SYSTEM since WW II and Portland needs several more lines before one can truly say that they have.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Preliminary plans years ago once called for linking the Gold & Green Lines in the SouthEast into a loop, This was cut as an economy measure. I think that it would add to the utility of the SYSTEM to add that back.

Until we are ready to accept low speed rail, we haven't really learned anything. I remember going through Spain on a steam powered mail train that stopped even where there weren't seemingly places and probably never exceeded 35 mph, and it was a wonderful experience. I'd often ride along the Spanish coast on a two car commuter train powered by a Chevrolet six; this is what we had before the me - fast generation.

Journeys are as important as destinations. I'll vote for low speed rail. Safe , efficient, quiet, accessible tech, and doable whenever we get over our current fixations.

Definitely agree...any rail build out would be good. But, I really think electric rail is the way to do...has always been so.

Too bad oil was so cheap that it was more expensive to put in electric line infrastructe than use diesel across the US and Canadian expanses...really a shame.

1970s...previous oil shock.

Too bad the shock didn't last long enough for them to follow thru.

Lincoln to Alliance? No wonder it got shot down. Give me a school bus and I could carry most of the people on that stretch - Nebraska highway 2 contends with Nevada 50 for the emptiest stretch of highway in the United States.

The North Platte starting point is also a head scratcher. Chicago Des Moines Omaha {other Nebraska cities ... all three} and then Denver is a sensible run.

Is there some logistics reason I don't know for those routes in my area? There isn't anything in the middle and mostly nothing on the ends for the two in Nebraska.

That triple track, very heavy duty stretch of rail (from memory) is designed to haul millions of tons of coal, not people.

Plus some corn & wheat.

Alan

Lincoln-Alliance-Gillette carries powder river basin coal east. Probably one of the busiest rail lines in the US, with the heaviest trains too.

North Platte west to Salt Lake is the UP main line and the original transcontinental railroad route. North Platte has one of the biggest rail yards in the world. Lots of plastic crap from China moving in containers to Wal Marts in the east.

Chicago Des Moines Omaha {other Nebraska cities ... all three} and then Denver is a sensible run.

How much traffic, either people or freight, do you anticipate you can generate along that route? If you're going past Denver, routes further north or south make more sense. Look at the history of east-west transport, starting from the wagon trains; all effectively bypassed Denver. Even I-70 was originally designed to end at Denver, and it took years of heavy-duty lobbying by Colorado politicians in order to get it extended.

Rail or road west from Denver provides for spectacular scenery and difficult engineering problems. The passes in Wyoming are, IIRC, at least 3,000 feet lower than anything in Colorado and with much gentler slopes running up to them.

The Moffat Tunnel changed that in 1928.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moffat_Tunnel

Unfortunately it is single track.

Best Hopes for Long Lived Infrastructure,

Alan

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html

Sea ice extent continues to decline, and is now at 4.24 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles), falling yet further below the previous record absolute minimum of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) that occurred on September 20–21, 2005.

going...going...gone...

and Greenland too:

http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2941866.ece

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/118...

And Chile:

Rate of melting glaciers has doubled in ten years

Scientists from the Center of Scientific Studies of Valdivia (CECS) said this week that Chile’s glaciers are melting at twice the speed observed just ten years ago. The scientists, who recently participated in a specially called international forum on glaciers, also warned that this trend could have devastating ramifications due to current plans to construct hydroelectric dams around Chile.

And then you combine that with this Round-Up post today, and you have to wonder what shapes people's ideas.

The Netherlands are betting their very future, as well as untold billions of dollars, on the assumption that James Hansen is some 97% off with his prediction of sea level rises as high as 25 meters. And all the while the melting keeps on accelerating, and "experts" keep saying that surprises them.

That is not a normal bet. So what is it? Just desperate, or plain insane? Most gamblers who play double or nothing as a strategy, end up with nothing.

Netherlands has 200-year global warming plan

With two-thirds of the Dutch population living below sea level, the country's government sees the risk of rising seas caused by global warming as a matter of life and death. So it's taking a long term view of the problem - a two hundred-year view, to be exact. The Cabinet announced plans on Friday for a new commission to begin preparing water defences through the year 2200.

"We want to make sure that there's still a Netherlands a century from now," Tineke Huizinga, the country's top water official, told state broadcaster NOS. "We don't want to just let the water flow and all have to move to Germany."

"We agree that in this light, we have to reckon with extreme scenarios ... it's important to understand what level of (flooding) risk is acceptable."Dutch policymakers are counting on a rise in sea level of around 80 centimetres in the coming century regardless of the ongoing scientific debate on the causes and likely impact of global warming.