DrumBeat: July 13, 2007
Posted by Leanan on July 13, 2007 - 9:04am
Topic: Miscellaneous
"Peak oil" advocates blast U.S. industry study
Proponents of "peak oil" -- the theory that global crude oil production has hit its zenith and is headed for a steep decline -- are steamed with a U.S. oil industry group's findings that the world has plenty of oil.Next week the U.S. National Petroleum Council -- a board of high-level U.S. oil industry executives -- releases its study titled "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," conducted at the behest of Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.
According to the report's executive summary obtained by Reuters, the world is not running out of oil but there are "accumulating risks" to securing supply through 2030.
Peak oil theorists say such findings gloss over Bodman's request to study the issue in detail.
"They've labored mightily and come up with a mouse," said Randy Udall at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, whose group dismisses the report as "petro Prozac."
"Give me four college students and two weeks, and I could do better," Udall said.
BP finally relents, counts oilsands in global tally
Oilsands skeptic BP PLC has finally caved after years of ignoring Alberta's oil-soaked dirt in its influential tally of world energy resources.The oil giant, one of the few super-majors in the world without a significant oilsands project under development, has long been reluctant to count the number of potential barrels in the unconventional, economically challenged oilsands in its annual Statistical Review Of World Energy.
The London-based company pulled a quiet about-face late last month, however, and its highly regarded publication now lists Canadian oilsands as containing 163.5 billion barrels of undeveloped reserves - oil that could be produced using today's technologies and in today's economic climate - among a total of 1.37 trillion barrels worldwide.
Brent oil price surges to 77.45 dollars per barrel
The price of London's Brent crude oil hit another 11-month high on Friday, buoyed by speculative buying and concerns over tight US fuel supplies, analysts said.
Iowa: Culver offers plan to combat fuel shortage
Gov. Chet Culver has temporarily lifted limits on how long gasoline and diesel truck drivers can work, a move designed to combat fuel shortages that have prompted higher prices across the region."This was a necessary step," Culver said. "Supplies were tight to begin with, and then after the Coffeyville, Kansas, refinery was flooded last week, supplies became very tight."
Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota have also lifted limits of drivers' shifts.
PetroChina pulls out of Canadian oil sands pipeline development project
PetroChina is pulling out of a US$3.8 billion (€2.76 billion) Alberta to British Columbia pipeline project that would have supplied crude oil to China from Canada's oil sands, a Canadian newspaper reported Thursday.At an oil sands conference in Calgary, Alberta, Yiwu Song, vice president of China National Petroleum Corp., PetroChina's parent company, said the company was tired of the lack of Canadian government and producer support for their business, and was dropping the project, according to the newspaper report.
Global oil demand to grow in 2008
World oil demand will grow more quickly in 2008, although higher production and refinery capacity should ease pressure on supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.
International Energy Agency: Oil Supply/Demand Trends For 2007-2012
The Medium-Term Oil Market Report [MTOMR] by the International Energy Agency was just released. The IEA is about as "non-kook" as you can get, being a stuffy starched-white-shirt group of 150 researchers funded by the OECD – 30 countries representing mostly what you'd think of as the developed capitalist world: North America, the EU, Japan and Korea.In the report, they take a hard look at where the oil market is headed between now and 2012. This is an important timeframe often missed in discussions of energy: plenty of folks will tell you what's going to happen next month, and even more will sing you songs of fear and greed that start, oh, in 2020. But five years is an extremely useful time frame for investors to follow.
“EVERYONE else in Britain hangs on what the Bank of England does with interest rates,” says one proud Aberdonian. “Up here, we don't care about that. We're much more interested in what OPEC does to the oil price.” An exaggeration maybe, but Aberdeen is the Houston of an offshore industry that has long made Britain a big oil and gas producer.
Energising Russia’s geopolitical goals
Enhancing Russia’s role will be its rejuvenated military power, largely financed by taxes and royalties from the oil and gas sector, which the World Bank says accounts for 20 percent of the country’s GDP, over 60 percent of its export earnings and 30 percent of all foreign direct investment.
Deadlocked Sunni, Shiite Factions Block Political Progress, Iraqis Say
Iraqi politicians on Thursday struck a more pessimistic tone about Iraq than did the White House assessment, and said the deadlock between warring Sunni and Shiite factions makes major political progress unlikely in coming months.
New Study Says Wind A Cheaper, Efficient Alternative To Nuclear
A report commissioned in the Netherlands and leaked to a Dutch newspaper confirms that wind power will quickly replace nuclear energy as the fossil fuel alternative of choice. The researchers concluded that not only will technological advances in the coming years make wind financially competitive but also security costs tied to nuclear energy will further add to the value.
Ethanol mix opposed by auto industry
The auto industry has stepped up its efforts against putting more ethanol in regular gasoline, joining a coalition of vehicle and engine makers calling for more studies of how much damage such fuels could cause.
Dave Cohen: Peak Oil Down Under
Australia serves as a microcosm of a world entering the peak oil era.1 It can be shown beyond a reasonable doubt that Aussie oil production has peaked. As their oil companies struggle to offset production losses as demand grows, Australians must face up to the stark choices these circumstances present. One road, taken by the United States long ago, creates dangerous, ever-growing dependencies on imported oil to fill the supply and demand gap. The other road, leading to energy independence and security, spawns alternatives that allow Australia to move beyond oil. Will the Land Down Under seize the opportunity they now have to make the right choice?
What can North Korea do with heavy oil aid? This is the question of the moment as the energy-starved communist country is set to receive much-needed fuel oil assistance this weekend in return for shutting down its nuclear reactor.
Police impound buses, gas shortages spur commuter chaos in Zimbabwe
Harare police have impounded minibus taxis and fined drivers who had not complied with government orders to cut fares, stranding commuters on the way to work, state media reported.
Vietnam: Cao Ngan power plant activates 2nd turbine, shortages still likely
At present, the oil field can only supply 5mil cu.m of gas daily as opposed to the average 15mil cu.m.The fuel is being equally distributed to generators at the Phu My power complex, Hai said.
However, with increasing demand for energy for production and daily activities, shortages are very likely.
My issue is not whether we should be taking steps, including radically improving the fuel economy of our automotive fleet, to protect the environment but rather the true motivation of many its so-called protectors. Originally, crusaders against smoking claimed they were merely trying to protect innocents from the ravages of second-hand smoke, a quest with which no one can argue. More recent bans, however, preventing smoking in open public venues point to a far more sinister intent, namely that their true motivation has always been to simply outlaw cigarettes and that second-hand smoke was just a convenient ruse.
Platts Survey: OPEC Oil Output Up Above Target
The 10 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) bound by the group's crude oil output agreements boosted production by 40,000 barrels per day to 26.6 million in June, from a revised May level of 26.56 million b/d, a Platts survey showed July 11. This is well above the 25.8-million b/d production target set in February by the so-called OPEC-10.
Exxon breaks $500-billion barrier
With Wall Street's big bull run Thursday, Exxon Mobil Corp. became the only publicly traded company currently valued above half a trillion dollars.
Rising prices could end wasteful gas flaring
Dwindling energy supplies and rising gas prices could soon make gas flaring unprofitable, say researchers, saving billions of dollars' worth of natural gas from going up in smoke.
Some Argentine Oil Cos To Sell Liquid Fuel At CNG Price Government
Some oil companies operating in Argentina agreed Thursday to supply liquid fuel to industrial clients at the same price as compressed natural gas, in an effort to alleviate the country's worsening energy crisis, a government press officer said Thursday.
The energy crisis in Argentina is affecting the citrus sector and will have an impact on lemon exports, sector leaders warn.A lack of rainfall is being blamed for shortages of hydro electricity, while extraction and transport problems and lack of supply are having an impact on natural gas availability in the South American country.
The knock-on effect is that full supplies to industry and agriculture are limited to 16 hours in 24. Productivity across all sectors is therefore running at only two-thirds. “The impact is being felt back along the supply chain,” said agronomist Bartolomé Del Bono, who is also the general manager of Tucumán citrus association, ATC.
Taiwan donates 30 million dollars to Nicaragua for energy
The government of Taiwan granted Nicaragua a donation of 30 million dollars on Thursday to purchase thermoelectric plants that help solve the Central American country's severe energy crisis.
Breaking bonds with oil won’t be easy or quick
U.S. energy consumption is based on oil — a multi-billion dollar industry — and changing that is going to take investments in technology, as well as a change in consumers’ attitudes.
A Citizen's Wake-Up Call: Six Problems We Can No Longer Afford to Ignore
Problem #2: Our national oil addiction. America has more than doubled its oil consumption from 8.8 million barrels per day in 1977 to more than 21 million in 2006. Of course Americans are not the only people who have needs for greater amounts of oil. By 2004, global oil production exceeded 80 million barrels per day for the first time. Fortunately, as fossil fuel supplies become more and more depleted, breakthroughs in alternative energy sources are happening every day.
Damage to Petrobras from Fraud Scheme Still Unclear
In total, the Federal Public Prosecutor's office has accused 26 people of manipulating the tender of contracts to build several oil platforms. One method, according to Brazilian press, was to send bidding instructions to incorrect addresses to reduce the number of competitors.
The Effects of Peak Oil: Panic from the Oil Crunch
The reality of peak oil will set in over the next few years. But once the world realizes the serious effects it'll have, the real panic will start.
Biofuels have the potential to be "life changing"
"Power through renewable energies is, and will be, a major tool for developing countries, particularly for rural populations. The potential is enormous, I think it will be extraordinary if the model is replicated in other parts of Africa, it will have life changing effects," said Sir Bob Geldof at a press conference in South Africa yesterday (11th July).
What they didn’t want you to know: oil’s dirty little secret
“IT’S the end of the world as we know it”, sang US rock band REM, a sentiment that seems to sum up the ‘hard to live with’ realities that Peak Oil will bring to civilisation’s most affluent cultures.And it definitely echoes the view of former BBC journalist David Strahan, who admits he knew nothing of the oil industry before starting his research and now wishes the world knew more about geology.
Fayetteville Shale Testing State Law
The lucrative gas exploration of the Fayetteville Shale Play has predictably led to more business for oil and gas lawyers in the state.It has also exposed some gaps in Arkansas law that confuse mineral rights and might someday surprise landowners who don't realize how little control they have when gas companies invade their property.
Iraq: of course it's about oil
THE PRIME MINISTER's hasty retreat from the admission that oil has anything to do with the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq is both puzzling and revealing.
Oil experts put kibosh on Cullen's road empire
This week's medium term oil report by the International Energy Agency should be the kiss of death for Michael Cullen's $1.5 billion spend up on roading, Green Party Co-Leader Jeanette Fitzsimons says.
Peak Oil, Global Economy Shifts Away From US Towards Asia
“Are we really running out of oil? Greg Palast discusses this at length in ‘Armed Madhouse’ and I’m inclined to agree with his assessment. We are running out of “cheap” oil i.e. it don’t [sic] cost much to pull it out of the ground but at the same time the high price of oil has made the harder-to-get-at oil economically viable and profitable. Enter Venezuela with 1.36 trillion barrels of heavy oil that is now worth pulling up not to mention Canada with significant oil reserves in tar sands. It’s not a supply problem in the sense that the Earth is running on empty. It’s a supply problem in the sense that production is limited in the pursuit of higher prices. Oil reserves are a measure of oil you can pull up at a certain price, the higher the price the greater the level of world reserves. At US$15 a barrel oil reserves are small indeed. At US$70 it’s a whole new ballgame.”
Venezuela Oil Min: Drilling Ops Normal as PdVSA Retakes Rigs
"All operations, all of our rigs are operating normally," said Rafael Ramirez, who is also the president of PdVSA, in a television interview.Ramirez denied media reports that rig operators are resisting the change in management as PdVSA starts operating 46 of its rigs that it had put under private management. PdVSA says that the staffers working on these rigs will become part of its payroll.
Brookside farmers point the way to post-oil world
Both Jason Bradford and Christoffer Hansen, who are working full-time at Brookside Farm, are firm believers in an apparently rapidly approaching phenomenon known as Peak Oil which they and other believe will mean the end of cheap fossil fuel energy. Consequently they believe that people will have to localize, that is, create the essentials of life locally, using affordable energy sources. They also acknowledge that one of the most basic of the essentials of life is food.
Opponents outnumber supporters (Powell River, BC, Canada)
Yrainucep Development Corporation has a development proposal for the land, which includes an airport, residential homes, a golf course, and an equestrian centre....Many of the people opposed to the application promoted agricultural values and the importance of viable local food production in the face of global warming, peak oil supplies and Powell River's geographical isolation.
For an epicenter view of the USA's burgeoning "green hotel" movement, steer your hybrid rental car (or better yet, take rapid transit) to the Chinatown gate.
Actor promotes tax breaks for hybrids
Rob Lowe, who portrays a member of Congress on television, appeared before lawmakers Thursday and promoted tax credits for people who add a plug-in feature to hybrid cars and trucks.
China glaciers melting at alarming rate
China's remote Xinjiang region is home to nearly half of the nation's glaciers that supply the rest of the country and other parts of Asia with water.However they have shrunk by 20 percent and snow lines there have receded by about 60 metres (200 feet) since 1964, the Chinese Academy of Sciences said in a report, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
Guyana criticizes carbon credit scheme of Kyoto Protocol
Guyana's President Bharrat Jagdeo on Thursday criticized the Kyoto Protocol on climate change for failing to allow countries like his nation with pristine unharvested forests to earn carbon credits.



A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
In the fields of finance and energy, there have been some remarkable developments this week, particularly with institutions that reverse their stated views, and probably their tactics and policies.
The IEA earlier released a report that said, though not in so many words, that peak oil is near. Then its CEO Claude Mandil gave an interview to Le Monde, in which he said Russia has peaked, and OPEC is not telling the truth about world oil supplies.
S&P and Moody's, Wall Street's preferred rating agencies, changed their approach to the ongoing mortgage malaise by downgrading, or threatening to downgrade, many mortgage-based investment grade bonds. This shift will be felt throughout the credit markets, and there may be much more to come. And the UK is now joining the mortgage mayhem crowd.
No such shift for NAR: they predict US home prices will rebound in 2008, though foreclosures rose 87% and a record number of ARM's will reset this fall.
Meanwhile in Canada, the sovereignty that our government seeks to defend in the Arctic is being undermined at an SPP meeting in Montebello, Quebec.
It wasn't too long ago he was saying $75.00 before $55.00. :)
I've just put the video on YouTube:
Pickens on Oil and China
Highlights of the latest Oil Market Report is out this morning.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
They omitted any mention of world oil production for June however. If you remember last month they had world oil supply down 565 thousand barrels per day to 84.9 mb/d in May. This month...silence.
They show, on the sidebar chart, supply for the second quarter at about 84.9 mb/d. This means that if April was at about 85.5 and May at 84.9 and the average for the three months at 84.9....well, you do the math. Of course this is just speculation but I am betting June oil extraction will be well below that of May, while May was well below that of April.
Hey, how else do we explain this surge in world oil prices?
Ron Patterson
Well, what can you expect from OPEC? The price of oil continues to hover around record highs, and what is a poor oil exporting cartel to do but cash in?
And yet, and yet ... OPEC has had a long tradition of bludgeoning any long term efforts to move away from oil by increasing oil production enough to lower prices significantly.
And of course, according to Saudi sources, the world is swimming in oil, so no need to raise production beyond the quota. As a matter of fact, the world has so much oil available that various markets are having their shipments cut, for what is it now, a half year? Except OPEC is still producing above the quota, and the price stays high, with customers seemingly having enough capacity to buy what is offered. Again, nothing new - OPEC has essentially always produced above its quota, bar an embargo or two.
It might just be that the game has changed, and a lot of the players just don't want the paying audience to realize it.
I expect a lot of 'controversy' over the next several years, lots and lots of 'controversy' about OPEC's motives, oil company profits, etc., etc.
What I don't expect is a flood of oil. Or an honest, rational explanation of geology.
The invisible hand now takes center stage - and you know things are bad when a metaphor is the centerpiece of America's strategy to deal with the next 20 years, having squandered the last 20.
Edited for bandwidth reasons. Please post just a link and an excerpt.
Yeah its disturbing how much ABQ has grown since I was in highschool... I do not even recognize the town.. I moved away for 10 years and just recently came back its sad...
Effective immediately, Iran wants Yen for oil to Japan, not dollars. Understandable. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLaColVYu5LA&refer=h...
Makes sense for them:
1. Not much they can spend these dollars on. Trade restrictions and such.
2. Transactions with USD can be more easily monitored by the US government, so definetly a minus for Iran.
3. USD has been sliding for a while now.
I would be interested to see oil price relative to say euro. Has price of oil really went up or is just reflection of weaker dollar (in other word inflation for dollar priced goods)?
Hi: If the US dollar had kept its high value against the Canadian dollar reached in 2002, oil would be $47 right now.
Dollar-euro? It's the yen, stupid
From the article:
Well, that's not the whole truth.
For this entire millenium, the yen has been handed out at every street corner in Tokyo to whoever could fog a mirror, at 0%-0.5% interest. It stands today at 0.5%: Bank of Japan keeps interest rate unchanged. (After a decision like that the yen should have fallen, says Econ 101)
It's a rising interest rate in Japan that could have real nasty consequences, certainly for institutional investors, especially hedge funds, who are leveraged up to their eyeballs, so deep they will soon no longer be able to fog that mirror. Many have borrowed $billions at the 0.5% rate, and will see their interest payments rise by 300% if the BOJ raises rates to a mere 2%, or 600% at a 3.5% rate. In the global picture, not really shocking rates, we can agree.
And with the yen rising vs the US dollar, who do you think will soon be clamoring for such a hike? Exactly, the US Congress.
Those big boy investors know this all too well, but have nowhere to go, they're strapped down to the merry go round: prime rates in the US and EU are much higher than in Japan.
Oh, and by the way, know what the hedge funds bought with those cheap yens? Mortgage and credit securities, such as CDO's, that are now swiftly being downgraded by Moody's, till they're worth pennies on the dollar. If Japan would go to the present Fed interest rate levels, they would be stuck with paper that had just lost 90% of its value, and have to pay about 1000% more in interest. That is how you define a bubble.
Subprime problems are no more than a nice breeze in hurricane season.
So for the second time in 18 years, America rips off Japan to stave off its own financial mismanagement.
Maybe it's about time ordinary voters in democracies all over the world start demanding a voice in banking policy. It seems whenever America gets in a jam, the elites of the capitalist democracies, and also the Arab monarchies, bail it out with cheap loans, a fishy carry trade, or mass purchases of America's latest gimmick derivative. The citizens, who are net savers, don't even realize their central banks are sending their savings away, never to be seen again.
Is this the imperial tribute?
Is this what Bush means by democracy? It has been the custom in democracies to leave foreign affairs and bank policy largely in the hands of expert elites, on the grounds that they were too complicated for the masses to understand. What better way to corrupt a state than to seduce its elites into an American-run global investor class and leave the voters without a say? So now in democracy after democracy, the public finds no matter what party it votes in, it will obey America on everything that matters against the popular will.
I recall that the definition of corporatism I originally learned was a society in which the regular folks were divided between institutions united only at the top - and the top was a brotherhood dedicated to control of everything. This was the internal model for Italian and Spanish fascism. Seems we now do it on a planetary scale.
And now you get what has been going on for decades...
...and why the US spends more on military than everyone else in the world combined yet acts like it is the victim of a hostile and treacherous world out there...
...see, the second world war wasn't a defeat for fascism. It was a set-back in a multi-generational battle for ideological control of the world. The fascists intellectually de-camped to the US, where there was already a lot of sympathy in elite circles, and slowly steadily built itself up to where it is today - attempting a final coup de gras.
As an aside - communism really wasn't the main enemy here, though those who were ideologically supportive of communist ideals were, as communism's authoritarianism was fine... it was and is the open society that is the enemy... the European masses taking "democracy" too literally and genuinely trying to set the rest of the world on track, was a huge threat that took some serious management by the US.
This is why services such as Blackwater are naturally exploding (if you'll excuse the pun)... there is no longer any need for state-run and democratically-interfered-with armies. Get the world's elite soldiers into a private framework where they are well paid as the enforcers of a global elite. In particular get the top soldiers in other countries to disobey their local elites and take orders from the US elites, to ensure the local elites become regional overseers, or else!
This is why the war on the middle class since the 1970s has picked up speed of late... you only need a small middle class to act as a buffer zone of aspirational (or desperate, depending on which end you sit) overseers to the slave class - a class whose freedom is fictitious, whose luxuries are trinkets and shiny things that will slowly be taken away as distraction becomes less important as self-empowerment becomes more and more distant, whose self-determination is a laughable illusion, and whose lifecycle - birth, life, work (most important of all work) and death - is commoditized, devalued and dehumanized.
Which brings us nicely to Peak Oil... Peak Oil... the words that make one look forward to death's sweet embrace [irony not literally]...
You see, one of the biggest problems for fascism was that cheap energy actually made it a lot harder to control vast numbers of people... not in theory... not in the long run... but in practice... it's like ball bearings in one of those childs games (before they had handheld video games)... you move it slowly you can control them... you add huge amounts of energy by shaking and they bounce around and it's very hard to settle them down... so pumped up on free energy the elites were kinda coddled anyway so weren't too fussed, and the middle class ballooned...
...problem is they started to want to control things... so anyway - long-story-short... peak oil represents a wonderful opportunity for these elites. Play the end game.
Use the levers in place - like the banking systems, the US military, all of the corrupt vassals - to seize that control and wait out the fall. If the crash comes soon enough they can hold out, as the masses will be too busy going all Post-Katrina on each other to spot what's happening. 20,000 acres in Paraguay is enough space to chill out and wait out the die-off.
...no i don't believe there is some grand conspiracy controlling this shit - there doesn't need to be - it's just memes drifting this way and that, evolving in a darwinian back-and-forth - enough self-interested parties with the right mindset, at the top, to apply a nudge here and a nudge there in the right direction... would take a lot to shake them loose now... and ultimately they'll fail... because the authoritarian control mindset - the centralism they crave - just won't work in the long run... and the crash will be harder and more chaotic than they expect... but for those of us heading for the lifeboats... just remember, when we come up for air - some of these folks will still be around... and they may put up quite a fight for what's left...
(Yeah - I'm cranky and having a bad day!)
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
No. Japan started printing yen because of the collapse of combined real estate and stock market bubble of the late 1980s. It keeps printing yen to keep the exports flowing and to monetize the huge government debt it amassed trying to pave its way out of the 1990s recessions.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7922.htm
Japan is "ripping off" itself in the long-term to keep the economy going in the short-term. Its the same choice politicians make everywhere. America has benefitted only as a byproduct.
Except the Yen is falling just like the U$S, almost like they are willing to eat a loss to politically split Japan from the US.
Otherwise they would require a strong currency like the Euro.
Iran demanding Yen for oil is purely antagonistic. It's irrelevant. If they sold oil to Japan for dollars (which Japan has plenty of) they could in turn liquidate the dollars into the global FX market in a millisecond.
China focuses on Venezuela.
China National Petroleum abandons Canadian energy strategy
Hmmm...let me think...if Chavez is not substantially increasing production, then those 600Kbpd have to come from someone else...no?
I don't think plans to expand the Panama Canal will be moving forward...
Agreed, as soon as oil is reported publically to be peaking, the project will already have been scrapped.
Actually good reason to.
Very little oil transits the canal now. Chavez wants to sell more oil to China, which will require using either the canal or a pipeline (already in place).
I could see a Chinese-Venezuela financing package for Panama to complete the new locks for the Canal.
The Panama Canal is a major strategic asset, and having "influence" (say holding the mortgage and getting a % of tolls) is hardly the worse use for 0.5% of Chinese dollar holdings.
Alan
It is beginning to look like we have three canarys in the PO/GW coal mine (hmmm literally??).
Australia may be the first sophisticated casualty of both GW and PO.
Mexico the first major exporting country to suffer PO collapse.
Argentina seems to be another sophisticated victim of PO and climate change too.
I think these three deserve close watching for a hint of when we should be doing the equivalent of evacuating the mine.
I am going to try and build and maintain an E-book "news letter" compilation of key links related to all of them. Many links will be to the excellent work and discussion here on TOD. Any suggestions would be welcome.
I wish we could afford the life we are living.
Sorry, why do you think Australia may be the "first sophisticated casualty of both GW and PO"?
Yes, GW has probably had some influence on the current extended drought, but the drought is by no means unprecedented or unmanageable, and appears (fingers crossed) to be breaking this year, at least in SE Australia (I had to empty out water from our swimming pool today!). At any rate, so far it is had no serious impact on our food-producing ability, or economy as a whole.
As far as PO goes, we still produce ~75% of our own oil, and while there is a substantial percentage of the population that have little alternatives to driving, and will be hit hard by spiking petrol prices, most of us do have other options, and there is an ongoing trend towards small vehicles and increasing public transport utility already. As I've commented before, I expect our economy will be dragged down by the U.S.'s or China's before our own is critically hit by declining imports.
It's true that neither the current government or opposition parties really have a vision of how to deal with our need to import more and more oil in a flat or declining world supply market, but there is awareness of Peak Oil at various levels of government, and my suspicion is that after the forthcoming election, we should being to hear of more a comprehensive plan to reduce our oil dependency. I'd love to think we might hear it before the election, but it's too hard of a concept to sell to the average voter, given the myriad other issues the election is being decided on.
Also, I have always thought Argentina a very diverse, bountiful place [though I haven't been myself].
I suppose the long shape works against it. In the long run it's not how much oil you have, it's how useful the place is without it. I always liked the thought of Argentina to live in..
Argentina is a great country with great people. I highly recommend visiting if you ever get a chance.
That said, their energy issues are concerning and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I found this article about Gore Vidal's travails to get a PV system fascinating, http://www.truthdig.com/interview/item/20070706_gore_vidal_sounds_off_on...
Here is a voice even more authoritative than that of Trilby Lundquist to tell a fascinating tale of energy freedom. He wants a PV system in part because the electric grid is using up what's left of the oil. Oh, that and he couldn't live without air conditioning, a telephone, or electricity during an extensive black-out.
If this author and scholar, legendary for the research and time that he puts into his work, can't handle getting a PV system properly installed and permitted, and his tale is as incoherent as this one, we truly have an infathomably long way to go in getting our story out and sustainable systems in place.
I have a PV system, as does my brother in law and several friends. None of us had had any real problem at all..
We are in Northern California, Bay area and Sacramento area.
While I respect Vidal for his researched work, this article did his standing no good. He came off as petulant, and offered no concrete reasons why the utility was off-base, except that they had missed an earlier, scheduled inspection. Never had to wait for the cable-guy or a Fedex delivery? Come on..
Utilities do have to insure that anything attached to the grid is fully compliant, protecting owners and their neighbors from electically caused fires and protecting line workers from electrocution. As far as I know, there have been no Solar Electric Caused electrocutions so far. Their safety record is extremely good, and I am fully in favor of keeping it that way, and making sure home systems are installed with the safety measures that are common in all home wiring, known as the NEC, or National Electric Code. Conversely, there have been a number of deaths caused by home-based Emergency Gas powered Generators, both to Line-workers and to homeowners.
If Vidal wants to make a claim, there are probably plenty of areas where utilities have been complicit in bad-behavior, but this one sounds like Red-tape, not utility protectionism.
I found one of the BlogAds served up in the left margin of TOD rather ironic:
Endless Pools. Perchance to dream...
Well, you've seen stationary bicycles, treadmills, rowing machines and stairsteppers, right? Endless Pools are the same idea. The pool creates a flow of water while you swim to stay in the same place. They are really good for coaching stroke mechanics because a - you can put a mirror on the bottom and watch your stroke and b - your coach can sit next to you and give instant feedback.
I've been trying to design an Escher version where the water naturally flows around and around.
It wasn't the actual product itself but rather the phrase "Endless Pools" in the context of peak oil--and perhaps why TOD readers would be a target market. Perhaps "swimming upstream" describes trying to get the message out. Google is trying to tell us something.
"I've been trying to design an Escher version where the water naturally flows around and around."
That's either wonderfully subtle humor for which I applaud you, or depressing beyond words that it's posted by a reader of TOD. Assuming the humor, I wish you great success in your design efforts and humbly suggest you insert a waterwheel into your working prototype. :)
"Let us wrestle with the ineffable and see if we may not, in fact, eff it after all."
-Dirk Gently, character of the late great Douglas Adams.
No, Pode,
He knows those Escher things won't work.
Actually, he's going to cheat... He's going to get one of those Irish perpetual motion thingies to pump the water around...
;-)
Got some serious sarcoholics around here, it seems.