DrumBeat: July 22, 2007
Posted by Leanan on July 22, 2007 - 8:23am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Gas Prices Rise on Refineries’ Record Failures
Oil refineries across the country have been plagued by a record number of fires, power failures, leaks, spills and breakdowns this year, causing dozens of them to shut down temporarily or trim production. The disruptions are helping to drive gasoline prices to highs not seen since last summer’s records.These mechanical breakdowns, which one analyst likened to an “invisible hurricane,” have created a bottleneck in domestic energy supplies, helping to push up gasoline prices 50 cents this year to well above $3 a gallon. A third of the country’s 150 refineries have reported disruptions to their operations since the beginning of the year, a record according to analysts.
There have been blazes at refineries in Louisiana, Texas, Indiana and California, some of them caused by lightning strikes. Plants have suffered power losses that disrupted operations; a midsize refinery in Kansas was flooded by torrential rains last month.
American refiners are running roughly 5 percent below their normal levels at this time of the year.
This resource triangle illustrates that conventional resources (the apex of the triangle) represent a relatively small volume of the total hydrocarbons in an area or basin. Unconventional hydrocarbons depicted by the lower part of the triangle tend to occur in substantially higher volumes. Early exploration and production is focussed on the apex of the triangle. Industry only pursues opportunities lower in the triangle when the opportunities at the top of the triangle are inadequate to meet demand and consumers are prepared to pay to make the opportunities economic. The oval illustrates that the Alberta oil and gas industry has moved significantly down the triangle in pursuing both oil (heavy oil, tar sands) and gas (coalbed methane, tight gas).
Brace for another energy crisis. A new authoritative assessment forecasts sharply higher demand that will raise prices and increase reliance on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and unstable regions for oil supplies. While some experts dismiss the analysis as alarmist, we need to prepare for a world characterized by increasing energy scarcity — and think creatively about how to do so.
After peak oil: Will America survive?
As public awareness about peak oil continues to grow, and even the big oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. are now starting to admit that the future supply of oil looks troublesome (see this Boston Globe article), there's an increasing focus on renewable energy solutions. But most members of the public still don't understand energy very well, and they generally have no idea whether alternative energy sources like solar, wind or CSP (see below) can replace oil. Many people are concerned about a potential collapse of modern society due to the end of cheap oil. So to help answer some of these questions, I've put together a set of uncensored, science-based answers about oil, renewable energy and the future of modern civilization.
Tata's Rs.100,000 car: boon or bane for India?
It looks as though Tata's Rs.100,000 car will be a reality next year. It is now being praised all over the world as India's shining moment ushering in a new automobile era. When seen in the background of India's energy crisis, it shows India's total lack of preparedness and long-term planning failure.
Saudi's Aramco says four foreign employees killed in fire incident this week
State-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Saudi Aramco, said Saturday that four of its foreign employees died in a fire this week at the Ras Tanura terminal on the country's east coast.
SK Energy wins right to develop 'promising' Peru offshore oil field
SK Energy, South Korea's largest oil refiner, said Sunday it had won a bid to develop a "very promising" oil field in Peru's offshore Trujillo basin.
The time is growing short for the nation to take a serious approach to the dual problems of global warming and a looming energy crisis.
It's time for people to enlist in the battle against global warming and its accompanying pollution that are messing with the qualities of their life. In fact, it's late already. The large question is whether Americans are up to it even as it would benefit both their health and pocket books.
Maryland Adopts Plan For Energy Efficiency
In a bid to cut energy use, Maryland yesterday became just the fourth state in the nation to approve a plan that removes the incentive for electric utilities to sell more power in order to make more money.In a rate case ruling issued yesterday, the Maryland Public Service Commission endorsed an approach known as decoupling, which ensures that utilities do not lose revenue if customers use less electricity.
Study Slams Ethanol, Industry Cries Foul
Ethanol is not the "silver bullet" that will solve America's energy crisis, according to a new report released Wednesday by three liberal environmental groups.In the 77-page report, the groups allege that ethanol production will, in many cases, contribute to significant problems in the United States and the developing world.
But Doug Durante, executive director of Ethanol Across America -- an industry advocacy group -- said the criticisms levied in the report were unfair. He said the industry has never tried to be the answer to every problem associated with fossil fuels and transportation.
Sweden's Saab leads drive to ethanol
By 2020, the Swedish government wants every new car on the road to run on fuels that can be replenished, and one of its car companies is already speeding toward that ambitious goal.
Watts of Wind: Turbines above the Gorge will soon help power Cowlitz County
About 370 construction workers can complete one 415-foot windmill per day. As of last week, the crews were near to completing 20 of them since tower construction started last month....Sections of the wind towers arrive from all over the world. Steel towers come from South Korea; turbine generators and blades come from Denmark. The parts are unloaded at the Port of Longview, creating work for local longshoremen. Truckers then haul them through the Columbia River Gorge to the 9,500-acre wind farm.
Workers mount each wind tower on a pad made with 300 cubic yards of concrete, using a giant crane that crawls from tower to tower and hoists tower sections, turbines and 148-foot-long blades into position.
"It's like clockwork -- it has to be," Young said. "The logistics here are tough. It's thousands of dollars a day for that crane. You don't want to miss a day because a piece is not here. Logistically, that is a nightmare."
The nuclear option: Nuclear power no panacea for reducing global warming
Is the expansion of the nuclear power industry, which produces no greenhouse gases, a big part of the solution to the global warming problem, as the Bush administration and some state officials claim? Or does it amount to trading one evil for an even greater evil?
Ralph Nader: The New Face of Nuclear Power (Same as the Old)
The old argument in the Seventies was that nuclear powered electricity would reduce our dependence on foreign oil. With only three percent of our electricity coming from burning petroleum, the pro-nuke lobby is now jumping on the global warming bandwagon. Uranium, they argue, does not release greenhouse gases like coal or oil.What nuclear lobbies ignore is all the coal and oil that needs to be burned to enrich uranium, to transport radioactive wastes with protective highway and rail convoys and provide security since they would be a priority target for sabotage.
World energy needs a boon for Wyoming
Due to the increasing global demand for its energy resources, Wyoming's economy performed second best in the nation last year, officials say.The increase in employment opportunities, vigorous natural-gas production, a consistent low housing foreclosure rate and a mining industry powerhouse led the way. But all industries are expanding due to the booming energy sector.
Oil and gas may run short by 2015, say industry experts
Humanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running, the world's top oilmen warned last week.The warning – which is being hailed as a "tipping point" on both sides of the Atlantic – marks the first time that the industry has accepted that it may soon no longer be able to meet demand for its products. In Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, it gives authoritative support to concern about impending shortages, following a similar alert by the International Energy Agency less than two weeks ago.
Arizona shouldn't waste public money on impractical photovoltaic cells
About 30 years ago, a great wave of interest in solar energy swept through the state Legislature. Being a former engineer, I realized that the numbers didn't quite add up. But I went along with the near unanimous vote to set up several solar-energy programs, hoping that economies of scale would kick in and make the programs feasible.Grants, rebates and credits flowed profusely, and the only result was that the state and many of its citizens lost many millions of dollars. The cycle has been repeated several times, the most famous being the alternative-fuels disaster that could have bankrupted the state.
Now it looks as if we're poised for another round.
Global Warming Theories Fizzle, New Studies Show
Claims of alarming changes in nature because of global warming are being discredited.Results of two new studies of historical hurricane patterns add to a growing body of research that discredits global warming alarmism, said James M. Taylor, an environmental policy senior fellow at The Heartland Institute.
Reports on the studies were carried in the June 7 issue of Nature but largely have been ignored or overlooked by most news reporting services. In that report scientists documented their reconstruction of Atlantic Ocean hurricane activity back 270 years.
Governors address climate change
States should develop creative approaches to climate change, just as they have with challenges such as health care, despite their different economic interests, governors said Saturday."No individual state is going to solve the climate change problem, but we can do our part," Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said. "In the absence of national or international consensus or progress, we have the opportunity to show the way."
Zimbabwe hunts spirit medium over false fuel claim
Zimbabwe police are hunting a traditional spirit medium who led President Robert Mugabe's government on a fruitless search for much-needed fuel she said was mysteriously oozing out of a rock.
Christo's latest project: an oil barrel pyramid for the Emirates
In a break with their usual temporary installations, the artist Christo and his wife Jeanne-Claude on Saturday unveiled a plan to build a giant pyramid of oil barrels in the desert of the United Arab Emirates."The Emirates is very keen to see this project realized," Christo said at a presentation of models and drawings for the 150-metre (500-foot) monument, roughly two thirds of the height of the Eiffel Tower.
The idea for the pyramid, with a flat summit, made up of 390,500 oil barrels piled up horizontally, dates back to the 1960s, the artists said. Two earlier attempts to erect it in Texas and the Netherlands came to nothing before the couple decided to turn to the UAE.
You know, I really respect Mr. Kromko, the author of the photovoltaic article. He clearly shows that solar energy will in no way keep Americans happily motoring, and he doesn't want to waste anyone's money in the process.
The little inconsistencies - for example, I don't think the solar cell will be powering the headlights, and the fact that 150 watts of power is enough to power 2 55 watt bulbs - don't detract from his powerful reasoning.
Which is to not waste money on projects which are not his pet project.
Run by a major international company, which pretty much follows the standard model for centralized energy production based on a grid monopoly.
In fairness to Mr. Kromko, his record seems fairly decent - see http://www.iandrinstitute.org/Arizona.htm
Mr. Kromko doesn't actually show that "solar energy will in no way keep Americans happily motoring", what he shows is that solar-powered cars, where the solar power comes from solar cells physically located on the car will not, which is certainly true, but not very interesting.
He actually doesn't even show that, since presumably these cars would have batteries which could store solar energy over time, but I will grant that the duty cycle of such cars wouldn't really make them feasible.
On the other hand, his point that there are other solar technologies that have advantages over photovoltaics in some applications is well-taken. Presumably we will see how the engineering shakes out.
'One horsepower equals 750 watts, and anything that could be called a "car" would have to have at least 40 horsepower, although, of course, a golf cart would use less. To produce 40 horsepower, a solar panel would have to be approximately 240 times as large as the one shown in the Star's picture. Eight feet by 375 feet would work.
To operate a 40-horsepower car for one hour, the panel shown would have to charge batteries for 250 hours. Even to operate a golf cart, charging time would be unacceptable. The panel shown could operate the taillights, but certainly not the headlights, of a standard car.'
I thought this was actually pretty understandable - and even if other solar technologies are more efficient in energy 'production', the numbers don't crunch very well. How many cars are there in Arizona? And are the cars more important than AC/heating?
Maybe you should go back to another historical definition of a car, the Citroen 2CV, which had a 425cc 12 Hp engine in its original inCARnation, and moved up to 600cc and 18Hp later. Four passengers, great reliability and durability, frontwheel drive or traction avant as they say, lawnmower simplicity and even a heater of sorts. Cheap, too.
Similar vehicles abound in Japan, although their cramped locales and short statures led to vehicles that are seen as too small but needn't be. We need to get over the two tons of metal syndrome and I don't feel the obligation to be polite about it anymore. Other countries have taxed the overpowered and overweight vehicles to the margins, but the political will isn't apparent here. There is a transportational reality between SUVs and bicycles.
That Citroen could do this in 1949 backs my argument that we are just stupid and greedy. When the beloved 2CV finally ceased production sometime in the 90's as I recall, there were huge riots and protests. Granted, there are some new designs in Europe that get great mileage too and are a lot safer and more comfortable, but my point is that we have to give up on the American definition of a car. It's over.
I ran a 2CV for many years back in the 60's and 70's, a 'camionette' or van version dubbed Tooloose Le Truck, and filled it's five gallon tank for about $2. Less than a penny a mile. Two race motorcycles, tools, and gas fit in the back and two maniacs in the front. You just had to be sure to leave early.
Sure, these things only went 50 mph, but so what. Compared to air travel, all cars are slow, and compared to a horse, 12hp is multiples faster. I'd like to see a national 50 mph limit and a 20 hp limit. We'd kill a lot fewer innocents and cut the carbon way down and still get where we're going with a lot less stress and aggro. Why drive a multi liter multi ton can at 70 mph to end up idling in a traffic jam?
Our current 'arrangement' of the automobile is just plain stupid.
Thanks for pushing the envelope on this. It will never happen but you speak the truth about what should be done. We do live in bizaaro world but do not realize it.
The original Volkswagen Beetle had 28hp. It seated four and pretty much did everything a car is supposed to do. The Loremo car has a 20hp engine -- and a lighter body than the Beetle, working out to about the same hp/weight ratio.
econoguy,
yeah...but have you ever tried to fool around in the back seat of one? My back still hurts!
Population control :-)
I love your idea of a horsepower limit... this would be a shock... but anything that needs doing will be a shock... either we have a big shock or a big crash... sadly I'm betting on the latter, but wishing for the former...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
expat quotes:
You may find this understandable, but you don't understand why it's grossly misleading to the point of fraud:
Either the author doesn't understand what he's talking about, or he's lying. He has just blown any right to be taken as an authority on the subject.
There are lots, and (to give proper credit) the author is correct about the rightly-maligned Arizona alternate fuel vehicle tax credit (which is not unlike the US flex-fuel CAFE credit). However, if Arizona citizens covered their roofs with solar-thermal concentrators, they could produce all the heat and cooling (via absorption A/C) they could use while charging their electric vehicles. There is no reason for Arizona to be obtaining most of its energy needs from oil and coal.
Actually, other people picked up on the 40hp being the minimum lower limit for a car (which is absurd), but the seeming conflation of the golf cart with an automobile was another of his 'mistakes.' The understandable was in relation to the situation the author was trying to sketch - that a PV panel wouldn't be sufficient for 'normal' American transportation needs. Amazingly, a lot of people don't need a PV panel to move their feet to walk 20 minutes to a store, and the number that can physically ride a bike to do the same thing in 5 minutes is easily 90% of those that can walk. But no mention of that fact - though again, in most of Arizona, summer is brutal - and Arizona's citizens are unlikely to change how they live enough to actually make it possible - none of that Spanish life style will be imported into the good old U.S.A., regardless of how well it worked in areas with similar weather and a lot less air conditioning.
Or maybe the American lifestyle is coming to Spain instead -
'For much of Spain's recent history, the siesta made the long days bearable. A routine workday that begins at 9 a.m. and finishes at 8 p.m. can seem somewhat rational if it is broken up by a good nap in the afternoon.
Today, long commutes make a trip home for a nap impractical, at least in the major cities. But if the siesta is becoming a thing of the past, it has left a legacy of idle afternoons that is still very much a part of Spanish life. In a way, the siesta has not so much disappeared as it has morphed into an epic lunch, often a two- or three-hour extravaganza that can last until 5.
Now some Spaniards are beginning to ask if a divided workday, with morning and evening sessions straddling an afternoon of scarce productivity, is compatible with the modern world and Spain's growing integration into Europe. '
http://www.expatriatecafe.com/index.php?option=news&task=viewarticle&sid...
Facts are going to become increasingly difficult to agree on in the future, I think - especially since facts don't lend themselves to marketing.
But changing lifestyles seems no problem - as long as it go with the globalized flow, and not against it.
I will grant that the duty cycle of such cars wouldn't really make them feasible
It depends. I could see myself using a GEM http://www.gemcar.com twice a week for a total of 12 or 15 miles/week. Such a light duty cycle might be supported by on-vehicle PV panels, at least in the sunnier weeks. None the less, occasional grid charging would be required when high use was coupled with low insolation.
As a general rule, a nameplate 1 hp electric motor can do the work of a 2 hp ICE, for a variety of reasons. Since I drive a 3,150 lb car with a 76 hp ICE diesel (it "gathers momentum") (#s from memory), I think a usable "car" can operate with less than 40 hp.
Best Hopes for Energy Efficiency,
Alan
The Gem car has a 10 grand base sticker price, 13 grand as equipped when Chrysler demoed it at old town market, and may be elgible for a six grand federal tax rebate. It will also allow Chrysler to meet federal fleet mileage requirements and keep selling dodge pickups and suvs.
If this product meets Alan's needs, that is great. I'm not against all subsidies. I'm against stupid subsidies.
The point Arizona Legislaturer was making is that somebody can sell $900 worth of solar crap for $2700 because the buyer is elgible for tax breaks. Without this product benefitting anybody.
I've got solar panels on my house of which the government paid 40% of the cost. $2000 tax credit from the feds and $3.50 a watt from the municpal owned utility. But this benefits myself and my community. And I'm not going to get rich doing this. I'll probably get a reasonable rate of return depending on future electric prices.
How are we going to produce additional electricity going forward. The three possibilities that I see are, "clean" coal for which a demo plant doesn't exist let alone a commercial operating plant, liquified natural gas which is also ridiculously expensive and then the overseas gas runs out, and wind power which is also subsidized. It is illegal to build a nuke in california. You can try to build one in arizona and run a power line here, but the bananas will try to prevent you from building the power line. Presently, clean coal is a scam, where a utility will make cosmetic changes to the coal without benefitting anybody and be elgible for federal money.
Ethanol is another method the government hands out money without improving the energy situation. Of course farmers have been subsidized since the great depression and this only differs by scale and lack of transparency.
I've read some disturbing things about the reliability of sterling engines for thermosolar plants. But it isn't my field. I wonder if they too are simply farming the government.
One point, the power you are offsetting by equipping yourself with PV is the most expensive for the power utility. The peaking load has the highest cost to run (dirty and expensive fuels), it may be that you are saving the power company more money by going PV and alleviating peak daily power than they are paying you.
PV also allows you to lock in for a guaranteed amount of electricity (less .5% physical depreciation per annum) at the amount you paid originally. If power is going to get more expensive, you will save utilities much much more then by reducing the overall infrastructure needs as well as pollution.
PV panels pretty much only have 1 major pollutant, which is heavy metals, and this is a point source, easily containable in tailing ponds or using RO.
Reliability of Stirling engines. I do know something about that. Not everything, but something.
The engines used by SES on sun are derived from automotive kinematic engines. These are an old design and are VERY UNRELIABLE. The scuttlebutt I got from the technicians working there is that they are "trying to bring the mean time to failure up to 8 HOURS"!
That said, I also know that several companies are working on free piston stirling engines, which have the same high thermal efficiency, and are believed by NASA to have potential to last for HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF HOURS. The difference is that the free piston machines have no cranks, linkages or rolling contact bearings, nor any need for liquid lubricants; they use non-contact seals that do not wear.
Look on the web for Infinia and Sunpower.
The average person makes no such fine distinctions, and can easily fall into a funk regarding a perceived generic stirling that is "not reliable".
Interesting tidbits on the SES. Does the Solo have the same problem/issue as they are one of the only shipping firms of a dish.
And for others here:
A claimed design of a sub $100 1 HP stirling existed. Nitrogen charged, made from pressed sheet metal, with an 8000 hour life to rebuild, then another 8000 hours till 'death'.
A link to the firm: http://www.omachron.com/projects.html
I spent time looking for data on mean time to failure of stirling engiines. Found very little, and that not trustworthy. All the numbers I did find seemed to say that crank (kinematic) stirlings have mean time to failure at best a few thousand hours, and that with service intervals much shorter. But the numbers tested seemed too small to give any confidence in any of the statistics.
What I did find was a few citations for free piston coolers (not engines) that had lasted about 60,000hrs without failure, and fuzzy extrapolations from that indicated hundreds of thousands of hours mean time to failure.
Now there you are, stat guys. go figure and tell me I am all wet; I already know it.
But I have a more serious question. A simple one. What is the life of a device that is sufficient to allow it to function to a time that it becomes so obsolete that a sane user would replace it?
For a wood chisel, maybe a couple of hundred years? For a car, maybe 20 years? For a computer, maybe 5 years?
I believe we can right now make cost-effective stirlings that would do that- perform well to the day that they should be recycled.
I doubt that PV panels on NEVs are the way to go. A much better approach would be to mount them as a canopy over NEV parking spaces at parking lots, and provide metered recharging. This is the best way to match up daily max insolation with the actual location of the vehicle. As a bonus, you keep the NEV shaded during the day (thus making it a little more bearable for a non-air-conditioned trip home), and protect it from rain or snow.
Solar golf carts and neighborhood electric vehicles from Cruise Cars:
The vehicles can be made street legal and prices start at $5,000. More info on the What's New page including this Fox News video.
These folks are confusing "amps" (which is energy flow) with "amp-hours" (which is energy at 48 volts, as in a gallon of gasoline). A common mistake, if it is in fact a mistake instead of an intentional salesman's lie.
Their brochure states that the solar top they are selling produces 180 watts, or 3 amps @ 60 volts. During a 6 hour day, these panels might produce an average of 100 watts, given that they are positioned horizontally. That might add 600 watt-hours to the batteries. For comparison, I have 8 golf cart batteries, which I used as a backup system. The batteries are 6 volts, 220 amp-hrs, for a 48 volt system. I calculated that this battery bank might hold some 10.5 kw-hr of electricity.
In short, these are not solar powered cars, since the batteries might only be re-charged over a 3 or 4 day period. This is another sales scam, as we say in the early 1980's. The idea is to sell expensive systems which are designed to take advantage of the various credits available without really doing anything except enriching the sellers. They claim that the IRS credits are about $990 for their system costing $3,300. State credits would also apply. Solar panels are available for about $4/peak watt, thus 180 watts of PV panels would otherwise cost $720. These guys are selling their solar tops for $2,700.
Ripoff alert!
E. Swanson
Thanks for the alert and the info. I'm sure knowledgeable do-it-yourselfers could put together a less expensive, more efficient system. However, I don't see where there is a scam at work because they state quite clearly that full recharging takes 3 days of sunny skies.
For a vehicle using 100-120 WH/mile, that's enough for plenty of running around without ever plugging in. If I cut back my eating out, I could go for weeks averaging less than 6 miles/day.
1 horsepower = 745.699872 watts. I really do not think that you would enjoy a "car" with 16% of 1 horsepower.
I'm building my own solar powered bicycle. I bought a yak trailer from BoB, mounted two 215 watt sunpower panels on it, attached it to my bicycle and wired it to a 400 watt front hub motor. The panels weigh 35 pounds each, the bike is 25 pounds, the motor is 20 pounds, the trailer is 15 pounds. 130 pounds of vehicle. The fatass sitting on the saddle pedalling is 200 pounds and contributes 100 watts. It won't go up hills worth a damn. Going straight and level is easy.
You would be farther ahead to mount the solar panels someplace and use it to charge a removable battery pack.
Sure, but where's the fun in that?
Hmmm: Thats not the way it works. If you can pump 100 watts into a battery for 6 hours you have stored 600 watt hours. Now if you could drive a vehical at 30 MPH for 6 miles it would take 12 minutes, that is a sixth of an hour, so if you use up 600 watt hours in 12 minutes that is equal to 3600 watts for 12 minutes, or nearly 5 HP for 12 Minutes. Will that get you going at 30 MPH, may be in a light vehical.
Ooops thats wrong just got back from fishing and had one too many. 12 minutes is a fifth of an hour or 3000 watts for 12 minutes or 4 HP.
Thank you for showing that there are still people on ToD who don't grasp the fact that power can be stored and released at a different rate than it is generated.
1/5 HP stored for 8 hours is 1.6 HP for an hour, or 4.8 HP for 20 minutes. If I can cruise 25 MPH on that 4.8 HP, that's about 8 miles. That may not be enough for all someone's typical driving, but it's nothing to sneeze at either. If you want more solar-powered miles, put extra panels on your roof and run the power through the grid!
Seems plausible as I currently run an electrified tandem bike and transport children (who don't pedal at all) on numerous trips under 10 total miles. Highest power consumption I have on this two passenger bike is 20WH/mile. Cruising speed about 22 mph. Just me on the bike, going more slowly, with moderate pedaling is about 15WH/mile. So running a four wheel vehicle at 4-5 x bike power is credible as a neighborhood transport.
The roads are flat and smooth in Santa Clara and that also helps a lot. :*)
Don't tell california you are cruising at 22 mph. How big is your motor?
I have a 360 watt hour battery and a 20 mile range so thats 18 watt hours per mile.
Our current two ton cars require what, 20hp to go 65 mph with cruise control on, on level pavement. I don't doubt you can get a car-light to run on 5 horsepower. It won't climb hills or accelerate worth a damn.
"Don't tell California you are cruising at 22 mph." - Right. So far no police or other law enforcement attention at all in about 11 months and 1100 miles. I do make a big show of pedaling really hard and most people don't even grog the hub motor.
"How big is your motor?" Crystalyte #408, peak of about 1000 watts. A 20amp controller at 48volts.
GEMCars and other small electric vehicles are quite useful.
We need to combine changes in vehicles with changes in our ways of thinking about our trips under 50 miles, along with altering neighborhood travel patterns and especially speeds.
Slower, smaller, human scale transportation will be more predominant.
Active transportation -- walking and biking --will be most important for us.
So he was a former engineer 30 years ago? Maybe he is a little out of date. For example, the car in the following example will go up to 40 mph, 25 miles on a charge (or more with a panel of the roof), and requires less than 5 kwh to full charge (the easiest way to consider range, power needs and matching to a PV or other generation system). A roof system for that is rather small, not that expensive and could long outlast the car. The car could take kids to school, do all the local shopping for most people, and suffice for many people's commute. We don't need the horsepower he talks about, and it is an inappropriate translation to go from electric power to ICE horsepower. We won't have the luxury to have much more anyway, and the technology is still developing.
http://www.zapworld.com/ZAPWorld.aspx?id=3804
This is the thing we have to get through thick skulls. Automobiles (not to mention SUVs, minivans, pickup trucks, etc.) are Dead Men Walking. There is NO realistic energy scenario that can be devised to enable continuation of BAU when it comes to conventional gasoline-powered ICE private passenger vehicles - NONE. The future of all of them is the junkyard. There is no point using the private passenger vehicle as any type of yardstick in evaluating future energy & transport options.
The only realistic future scenarios are either: a) human powered transport (walking, bicycles) + a little animal-powered transport (must be just a little, not that many horses left, and not enough land for pasturage & feed); or b) some combination of i) electrified rail transport (per Alan Drake) + ii) biodiesel powered shuttle buses & essential heavy equipment & public service vehicles + iii) very small & lightweight electric vehicles for local personal transport (NEVs) where necessary + iv) walking or bicycle where possible.
If we don't make option b happen, we will not get BAU private passenger automobiles, we will get option a - period.
A lot of people aren't going to like the prospect of life with out the gasoline powered ICS private passenger automobile, but I bet they would like even less the prospect of only being able to get around on foot (or bicycle, if fortunate, or horse-drawn carriage or coach if really fortunate).
Mr. Kromko's calculations seem close to those I made many years ago. I thought of building a solar powered vehicle using concentrators, which ended when I figured that a vehicle the size of a school bus would produce about 10 hp. However, 10 hp is about 7,500 watts, which will provide plenty of electricity for a house. The concentrators were to be used with a condensing steam cycle, which would result in a large amount of low grade heat being available from the condensers. This thermal energy could be stored as hot water for use as needed both for water needs and for space heating. I even proposed building such a house to ERDA way back in 1975, as I recall.
There would have been many problems with this type of system. Not least is the fact that the mechanical portion of the steam cycle would be required to operate continuously, much like a typical coal fired steam cycle used by electric utilities. It would need to run 8,760 hours each year, or 87,600 hours over a 10 year period. Compare that with an automobile with a life time of 150,000 miles, which, at 50 mph, would represent only 3,000 hours of operation. As a result, the building of such a system on the scale of an individual house would likely be difficult and expensive to maintain. On a larger scale, such as the concentrator system built for utility production, the maintenance problems might be manageable.
The big advantage for PV systems is that there are no moving parts and the operational lifetime would be expected to be several decades. The fact that the cost of PV has remained high does not imply that improvements in future will not result in lower costs, thus, Mr. Kromko is a bit premature to reject PV outright. The PV industry is still young and there are economies of scale which will result as the rate of production increases. But, first, there must be a market for the PV systems, which is the reason that the subsidies were put in place. As Peak Oil arrives and the price of oil climbs further, PV could turn out to be the best alternative.
E. Swanson
It seems sensible to me that the individual auto should be the end-user of a stream of power that is produced in a variety of ways. Nothing else makes sense in a world that is no longer to be dominated by a single energy source.
The car would plug in to an electric grid powered by central solar, supplemented by individual solar -- on your house, on your car, wherever. The technology exists now --
And in Western Oregon -- where the clouds seem to be permanent, but trees are a pretty effective solar collectors-- biomass generation of electricity will work. In the Columbia Gorge wind seems effective and hydropower in the rivers or tidal/wave power at the ocean have been shown to make useful contributions to energy production
The key seems to be a "grid" of some kind that can be maintained by some organization that isn't wedded to a single power source.
Of course, ordinary electric cars can't be as powerful or as numerous as we are currently used to (but people will be much better off walking a little more), and a lot of transportation is going to have to be by electrified rail. But the world doesn't need to end, and we don't need to fight resource wars because we are running short of cheap gasoline.
It seems just as silly to promote the notion that photo-voltaic is useless as it is to promote the notion that it can do things that are clearly impossible.
"It seems just as silly to promote the notion that photo-voltaic is useless as it is to promote the notion that it can do things that are clearly impossible."
Thanks, NLNG;
That's the point I would have made as well.
Considering the simplicity, durability and space requirements of PV, I don't think these subsidies are misspent at all. Durability alone, even if energy payback IS 30 years, means that there is likely service-life continuing past the point of full payback, while the use of government funds to buy gas-burning equipment (like the cars our City Employees commute into town with) aren't getting this kind of scrutiny.
The real comeback to this article should be what some of our other subsidies are doing with great volumes of our public money, offering little value or return at all. Sorry.. don't have any examples..
If you want to see a Solar Truck, here's what Pete Seeger did with a pickup and PV on his barn roof.. (pdf) http://www.renewablenys.org/retrieve_file.php?type=article&id=13
.. so while newbies might regularly go 'Aha, put panels on the car roof!' before they know the numbers, the conclusion isn't completely ludicrous, either, since a stranded electric car (which SHOULD probably be Golf-cart sized, and include pedals, too..) will at least be able to start recharging itself, while you set up your tent and get out that copy of Anna Karenina you've been meaning to start. Is any other kind of car going to do that? (Of course, your pedals could slowly grumble you down the road, or be spun in place for an additional 100-200 watts of charging current..
I've been wondering what an Ultralight Electric Car would be like if you and your passengers could be pedaling as an assist to the motor, partly perhaps as a way to have substitute heating during the winter drives.
Happy Peddling!
Bob Fiske
Could an electric assist bicycle be considered an ultralight electric car? Half horsepower motor and I actually do pedal.
On a flat surface, pedalling will add about 3 mph. 100 watts of me and 400 watts of motor. Up a steep hill, pedalling will double my speed from 4mph to 8mph. In low gear, I think I contribute as much torque as the motor does. The motor has one fixed gear.
Robert,
in most states an electric bicycle that goes 20mph or less is still considered a bike. No tag, no insurance required. It is not car by any means or a moped or a motorcycle. All different in the eyes of the law with regulations that vary by each.
check your state for info and your city/county for specifics though.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
Correctomundo. I'm limited to 20mph by california law. No registration, no insurance and I can use the bicycle lanes. A co-worker of mine hates mopeds because they go 30mph max and block traffic. But I can stay out of people's way on the bike lanes.
The magical numbers by fed law that Bush the Lesser (vs Bush the Greater) signed was:
1 HP or 20 mph.
The more it looks like a bike, the less likely 'The Man' will pull you over.
Federal law signed in 2002 puts electric assist bicycles under the jurisdiction of the Consumer Protection Product Safety division rather than the Department of Transportation. The law defines a bicycle as having a top speed of 20 mph and power less than 1HP. The law says it supercedes states with more STRINGENT requirements.
The states of California and Minnesota define electric assist bicycle as having top speed of 20 mph and power less than a kilowatt. This is a less stringent requirement than federal definition. I didn't look up all fifty states.
I think I need a lawyer to figure out what's what. If you aren't being a jerk "the man" will probably not pull you over.
"Could an electric assist bicycle be considered an ultralight electric car?"
I suppose it could. I expect we'll see quite a range of experiments out there, as necessity breeds new inventions. When I look towards new transport options that I could use, my mind jumps from little pickups, like Pete Seeger's, to Golf Carts, Scooters, Bike/Trikes with extra seats and a little, lockable 'grocery' space, so you can park the thing and not have to carry everything into the 'second store' with you, etc, etc.. I often come back to the bike alone being able to cover many of my needs, but I still think about some little buggy you could sit through a storm in, or use for errands that are a little beyond a bike, or to travel with a couple other people.
As much as the auto gets vilified, it has been worked into a very useful form of vehicle, and I doubt that they will get shunned outright.. just put back into balance, I suppose.
Bob
For sitting out a storm,velomobiles are unbeatable,according to those who ride and love them.
Try:
velomobiling.net
for a very good overview,fine galleries, and a variety of helpful links.
As someone who is already living with PV solar, let me assure you I do not use the power produced for transportation. Rather it is for lighting and powering our electronic toys and other odds and ends around home. And it works very well, especially in time of brownouts and paying the electric bill.
I disagree with Mr. Kromko about the advisability of home PV systems. At today's prices the cost of installation may not be "paid back" for a number of years, but the freedom from the future vagaries of the grid may become important long before payback. This is a personal option. I admit I do like the subsidies.
When you get to the bottom of his article, you find Mr. Kromko is pushing the use of a large solar turbine-generator system for community pwoer generation, and points out that this is a cost efficient means for producing sustainable energy. His point is well taken -- how do we get the utilities to go for this kind of system rather than burning fossil fuels, like gas or coal?
Forget the car thing. It is simply a red herring.
Sam Penny
the Prudent RVer
Local gas price is $7.70 per US gallon. Increase from last week's price ($7.62) due to further decline in the dollar. Local = Mid-Wales, UK.
You're lucky ... here in Essex,UK I've seen unleaded at £1.02 ... I think that's around $8.04 per US gallon.
However, $ are getting cheaper and cheaper for us ... at the current rate of collapse of the exchange rate, with any luck, fuel may be almost free for us by Christmas :-)
I wonder how long oil exporters will keep on accepting $ for their oil?
Xeroid.
'I wonder how long oil exporters will keep on accepting $ for their oil?'
Xeroid, I dont know the answer to your question but have wondered the same thing myself...Three days ago I took a pile of $ and converted them into more 'hurricane' provisions. 20 two pound cans of coffee was just one of the items on a long list. I like the concept of commidities that I can eat/drink or trade for other items that might prove useful.
Japanese energy companies are accepting Iran's demand to be paid in yen.
While currencies can be converted quickly, I would assume that Iran will not be converting those yen to dollars anytime soon. Thus this move creates more demand for yen, and less for dollars.
It doesn't matter. Oil is worth what buyers are willing to pay for it and what sellers are willing to sell it for, in any currency.
Dollars can be converted into any currency, or vice versa, on the FOREX in a fraction of a second for about three basis points, (three cents per hundred dollars.) Any nation that wishes pounds, yen, euros or whatever for their oil instead of dollars can just convert the dollars for their currency of choice, in a tiny fraction of a second for almost no cost.
If an exporting country says "I want euros only" then the buyer can just instantly convert his dollars or yen, or whatever, into euros and pay.
It just doesn't frigging matter people!
Ron Patterson
Actually, those FOREX people have to be willing to convert the $ to something else.
Also, somebody probably has to loan the $ to convert to something else if you are going to use the money for imports.
Those providing the loan may not take rapidly depreciating IOUs to be paid back in 30 years forever.
Why would anybody think it is ok for their grandchildren to pay for today's consumption of oil? ... "It just doesn't frigging matter people!"? ... I wonder what the grandchildren will make of that?
FIAT money has a proven history of failure ... especially when M3 is exponentially growing ... as now.
The FOREX people seem to be going off the dollar recently ... to say nothing of Iran!
Xeroid.
Xeroid, you haven't a clue as to what the hell you are talking about. There are no such thing as "Forex People." The Forex is nothing more than all the major banks in the world. They are known as Forex Member Banks, and they are all tied into the same system.
No one needs to loan anyone anything for anything. If you have any currency that is just as good as holding dollars or euros for any currency can be instantly converted to any currency. All major currencies are traded for three to four basis points. That is just the difference between the bid and asked exchange rate. There is no commision charged on the Forex. The banks make their money simply by the spread betwen the bid and asked.
That is an absurd statement. More dollars change hands on the FOREX than any other currency. And again there are no "Forex People", there are only banks and these banks are in the business of exchanging one currency for another. That's what they do.
Ron Patterson
Ron: The US dollar was once very dominant. As the following article mentions, the value of euros in circulation is likely to exceed the value of circulating dollars sometime this month. This is just a five year old currency. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/18338034-95ec-11db-9976-0000779e2340.html