DrumBeat: July 27, 2007
Posted by Leanan on July 27, 2007 - 8:07am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil Prices Close One Penny From Record High
Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose $2.07 to settle at $77.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The highest-ever settlement price for a front-month contract was $77.03 a barrel, set July 14, 2006.
Chevron Corp. said Friday its second-quarter earnings rose due to higher profits from its refineries and the absence of year-earlier charges.Net income in the quarter increased to $5.38 billion, or $2.52 a share, from $4.35 billion, or $1.97, last year.
Warren Buffett sells 16.9 mln shares in Hong Kong-listed PetroChina
Businessman and global investor Warren Buffett has sold 16.9 mln shares in PetroChina Co Ltd, reducing his personal stake in the Hong Kong-listed Chinese oil company to 10.96 pct from 11.05, PetroChina said in a filing with the stock exchange.
The unintended consequences of the ethanol quick fix
The push to increase ethanol production and ease dependence on oil has created a price runup in fuel and food prices.
Bombing of Mexican Pipelines Puzzles Security Experts
At first, some thought the explosions may have been caused by accidents, but investigators at the bombing sites in north-central Mexico found evidence of sophisticated explosives, and a leftist insurgent group from southern Mexico, the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) claimed responsibility. President Felipe Calderon pledged to protect the infrastructure of the state-owned energy company, Petroleos Mexicanos, called Pemex for short, and he dispatched military units to patrol various pipeline routes.But the attacks remain a mystery, and speculation continues as to who was really responsible. The EPR had never ventured that far north before and never appeared to have access to the explosives and bomb-making skills that were employed in these attacks.
Mexican Company Predicts End of Oil
Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years."Supplies of this economically exploitable resource are running out," informed a report sent by the state owned company to the United States stock market.
Peaks, Plateaus and Premonitions
The main questions were generally the same: "Wouldn't the effects of peak oil take years to be felt? This would suggest that we would see a powering-down over time rather than an overnight panic."I gave them the positive answer first . . .
"I hope." The truth is that we have no way of knowing how people will react.
However, I think history can give us some examples. We know how people reacted to the stock market crashing almost seven decades ago.
Granted, circumstances were different back then. Let's take a look at a more relevant event . . .
Crash Homes on Brazil Infrastructure Woe
Aviation chaos, unpaved highways and the threat of energy rationing point to perhaps Brazil's greatest challenge in its quest to become an economic superpower: How to upgrade its overburdened infrastructure.The government is planning to spend billions of dollars in coming years to modernize and expand strained roads, power plants and ports in a bid to accelerate growth in South America's largest economy.
But decades of infrastructure neglect, due to years of economic instability in the wake of the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980's, will not be quickly remedied. The strain, in some cases, is having disastrous consequences.
I have bad news: If you think oil prices are high now, you ain't seen nothin' yet. The good news is that you can profit from oil's next move. That should help you pay your soaring bills when gasoline accelerates past $4 a gallon. More on that in a moment. First, let's talk about why energy prices are on the move.
Roller coaster ahead for oil prices
Analysts are predicting that global demand for oil could exceed supply by as soon as 2015. However, the situation is not quite as simple as the newspapers make out. First, the world isn't running out of oil; it's running out of cheap oil. Canada alone has an estimated 180 billion barrels of recoverable oil, enough to meet global demand for the next century or so.The problem is, you can't run your car off oil in the ground. The global oil shortage is a refining problem, not a lack of resources. As oil becomes harder to extract, it becomes more expensive. As oil becomes more expensive, major oil users will look elsewhere for energy, or simply reduce their energy use. Oil will remain a major global energy source for the foreseeable future, but only where there is no economic alternative.
South Africa: Strike could 'cause fuel shortage'
An indefinite strike in the petroleum sector might result in a shortage of fuel when Ceppwawu members go on strike next week, the union said on Friday.
Looming drought may bring water, power outages to Philippines
Falling water levels had affected the operations of hydroelectric dams that provide power to metropolitan Manila and surrounding areas, forcing the state-run National Power Corp. (Napocor) to introduce daily three-hour outages which started Wednesday, the firm said.
BANGLADESH: Power Plants on Rental Basis
Most of the leading dailies have reported about a tender notice of Bangladesh power cell seeking proposal for prequalification about supply of rental power plants published with 14 days notice. Dailies have rightly questioned about the very short notice for such power plants.
As Cheap Oil Ends, American Standard of Living Will Decline
“Americans are delusional,” began James Howard Kunstler, speaking to the investment conference we are attending here in Vancouver.“They think they can continue living the way they’ve been living for the last 50 years. They think the key to it is to find a way to keep getting fuel. And Vice President Cheney summed up this line of thinking when he said, ‘the American way of life is non-negotiable.’ The trouble is, Americans may not be willing to negotiate. But if they don’t, they are going to find that someone else is negotiating for them. And that someone else is called reality.”
A recent study from the U.S. National Petroleum Council (NPC), led by former ExxonMobil chairman Lee Raymond, asserts global energy consumption will increase as much as 60 percent by 2030 but assures “the world is not running out of energy resources.” The report says the world is entering an era of tight energy supplies where global oil production could drop to 5 percent below current output by 2030. The Financial Times says the NPC study represents “a defining moment in the history of the global energy industry” crystallizing the “unease about global energy supplies that has been accumulating over the past couple of years.”
Oil prices have surged again, and investment bank Goldman Sachs thinks they have the potential to spike to near $100 a barrel by the end of summer unless Middle East production increases. How would a rise to, say, $95 a barrel affect the global economy?
Weak Dollar Gives OPEC Little Incentive to Up Output
A plunging U.S. dollar gives OPEC's key Middle East members little incentive to pump more crude to ease high prices amid rising concerns about the impact of the weak greenback on their economies.
Americans’ Insatiable Thirst For Energy Must Be Moderated
As you know, many serious problems are associated with our insatiable thirst for energy. The reason is simple: To gain the energy we must burn the fuels. The combustion, by the way quite inefficient, causes huge gaseous emissions polluting the air and forming an invisible screen responsible for the famous " green house effect ", i.e., blocking the dissipation of heat and thus causing the feared warming up of our planet, with deadly consequences for nature and man.There is only a finite amount of oil in the world. Everybody knows this. Someday, we'll run out. It will be gone.
We're gambling on positive hearsay about energy issues, just as we did on global warming.
WoodMac: US Gulf Lease Sales Could Be Biggest in Nine Years
The U.S. government's upcoming sale of drilling rights to swaths of the deepwater Gulf of Mexico has the potential to top $1 billion for the first time in nearly a decade, according to a report by Wood Mackenzie.The sales, expected later this year, include many newly available blocks in the lower tertiary, an area 150 miles off the coast of Louisiana where no oil is currently produced, but where the energy industry has made several large finds.
Venezuela US Envoy: We Must Be Ready For Gas Nationalization
Venezuela must be prepared for the possibility of nationalization of its natural gas sector, the country's ambassador to the U.S. said Wednesday.
Brazil oil boomtown draws splendor, misery
From Dubai in the Middle East to Maracaibo in Venezuela, oil industry booms have brought luxury downtown, while the numbers of indigent mushroom in worker camps and slums in the suburbs.
Wells Take Voyage to Bottom of the Sea
Standing on the deck of Anadarko Petroleum Corp.'s Independence Hub platform, crew chief Darwin Nichols can't hide his enthusiasm. "You can see everything from here," he marvels.His view: a computer screen with a spider web of wells, pipes and flow lines used to extract natural gas, all of which are invisible from the platform because the wellheads, pumps, separators and meters distinguishing most petroleum platforms sit on the ocean floor.
Senior Chinese official hints at raising domestic oil price
A higher domestic oil price would benefit China's aim to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, Cao Changqing, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said on Thursday, in the clearest indication yet that the government is considering raising the price of oil.
China's Oil Trio Domestic Exploration Costs Surge - Woodmac
Despite concerns about intensifying competition between China and the West for energy resources, China's listed oil trio increased their spending on domestic exploration and production from 2004 to 2006 by more than their total international expenditure last year.
On one hand the rising population of millions of people in the world is creating a surge in demand for food and on the other, is the use of food crops as a source of energy in place of oil, the so-called bio-fuels boom.
Texas leads list of dirtiest U.S. power plants
Texas leads the list of having the dirtiest power plants in the United States, while New England and the Pacific Coast produce cleaner energy and less carbon dioxide emissions linked to global warming, an environmental group said on Thursday.
Lawmakers grill EPA chief on Calif. law
The head of the Environmental Protection Agency refused on Thursday to say whether he knew the Transportation Department was lobbying against a California global warming law.
Listen to Earth, Pope Says in Environmental Plea
Pope Benedict said the human race must listen to "the voice of the Earth" or risk destroying its very existence.The Pope, speaking as he was concluding his holiday in northern Italy, also said that while there is much scientific proof to support evolution, the theory could not exclude a role by God.



The May issue of the IEA Oil Market Report had world oil production at 85.5 million barrels per day in April. The latest July full market report just came out and they have world oil production at 84.3 mbd in June, down 1.2 mbd in the last two months. They blame the drop in June on maintenance in the North Sea and seasonal factors limiting North American output. But they say not to worry because “non-OPEC supply should rebound in July before maintenance again dents August output.”,
They say output from Saudi was lower in June.
A very interesting admission from this IEA report, from page 16:
They are saying “we were over-optimistic in the past and we may be a little over-optimistic in our 2007-2012 outlook. The IEA is starting to hedge their bets folks. Can you blame them?
It’s starting to get interesting folks.
To get the latest IEA Oil Market Report click on the link then go to the bottom of the page and click on: “The latest free issue of the full OMR”. It now brings up the July issue instead of the June issue.
Ron Patterson
The IEA Oil Market Report is interesting. If I am reading the report right, it sounds like starting in the middle of the second quarter of 2007, they are trying to adjust for the consistent upward bias in some of the non-OPEC numbers. It is hard to understand what they are doing - one place they talk about an adjustment of -410,000 barrels per day; another place they say the adjustment for this month totals -220,000.
Another thing that becomes clear from the report is that the high demand numbers seem to be driven by the transportation sector. The transportation sector shows high demand growth, in country after country.
Ah! Welcome to the Wild, Wacky, Wonderful World of IEA accounting.
Rule # 1
All numbers, including numbers for years & months gone by, and especially forecasts, are subject to revision at any time. Therefore, every Oil Market Report is just a fleeting snapshot in time.
Rule # 2
Revisions made under Rule # 1 are also subject to meta-revisions without notice should past estimates, even when they've already been revised, be shown to be totally out of touch with reality.
And always remember to have fun! Enjoy yourself!
Hey Ron (above) and Gail, see my latest column Inside the IEA Medium Term Report.
And they also expect world demand to be 88 mbd in Q4 2007.
Bush Administration blames Saudi Arabia for troubles in Iraq
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/27/world/middleeast/27saudi.html
Doesn't this seem counterproductive, even insane, in view of Peak Oil? It appears that soon, we will have alienated everyone in the Middle east.
http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=23101
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/rss/eo20070727hc.html
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2007/me_syria_07_26.asp
http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070724-041457-9781r
The Bush/Cheney regime seems to be thrashing around like an addict searching for a fix.
Of course, problems in supply are always someone else's fault. And some else will pay for reducing supply!
The addiction, however, is not an issue at all.
No energy policy. Only war policy.
Cid,
Bush may have a motive for doing this. He needs an excuse (an event) to justify making the US a police state so he and Cheney can take over the reigns permanently.
Check out this article:
Old-Line Republican warns 'Something's in the works'
The perfect event for Bush to keep his foot on our necks would be a severe oil shock and economic depression. Pissing off SA would certainly assist in creating an oil shock. So would bombing Iran.
Wheeeeeeee!
Tom A-B
Tom A-B,
The article you link to refers to a Whitehouse executive order dated July 17 and available on the Whitehouse website. Google Bush,executive order and you'll find it. I commented on it on yeaterday's drumbeat. Its scary as can be, they have given themselves authority to arrest anti-war activists and confiscate their estates.
This isn't a political issue, its a basic American rights issue. Don't believe me or anyone else without reading it for yourself.
Bob Ebersole
I have now read the order and it certainly is scary. As you said Bob, in effect, any activism against the Iraq war could be considered threatening to the stabilization efforts in Iraq, which according to this executive order could or will lead to arrest and confiscation of property.
So, I suppose the general public will really be up in arms about this and we'll see lots of people supporting the impeachment of Bush. Or not.
If Bush or Darth Cheney don't leave office in 2008 I wonder what the reaction of the citizenry will be. I'd like to think we'll revolt, but I wouldn't be surprised if complacency rules.
Tom A-B
We need the order to be renamed the "Anna Nicole Order" for our fellow citizens to careBob Ebersole
I'm beginning to think that we may be focused on feeding ourselves (see, for instance, the article -- Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years).
The logical conclusion is that the US has justification (because of interference in Iraq) for seizing Iranian and Saudi oil reserves.
This sounds wild, but would not surprise and may be the "Ace in the Hole" that KSA holds over the US administration's head to get what they want from the US.
It's difficult to tell who is the Alpha when it comes to US/KSA relations.
It does sound a bit wild and you have to wonder how they would guard against home-grown saboteurs. Even if it is just a story, its existence might say something about the true nature of America's "special relationship" with SA.
I think this story has been planted as part of a back-story to explain future events. ("A guy wrote a whole book predicting that this would happen!!") Should such a thing be needed, of course. Reminiscent of sending a few Arab types to flight school.
Why would the Royal Family do something like this? They're all stinking rich, at least the top dogs cetainly are. They'd be hunted worldwide if they were held responsible for collapsing the world's economy.
Well, discussing whether KSA is going to self-destruct as reported by one of the head honcho neocons at least reveals that for all the smiles they put out--they're not too chipper.
Remember how Muad Dib ultimately took power - by setting a self-destruct on the spice.
Frank Herbert was a bright dude. I can't imagine anyone coming to this site hasn't read Dune but if so, now might be a good time.
Yes...good observation....and yes...we've discussed the analogies between Dune and Middle East current day situation several times here at TOD.
(I shall not fear, fear is the mind killer, fear is the little death that leads to total obliteration --)
You know, it's been years(actually decades). It would be truely enjoyable to read them all over again. Frank Herbert is like J.R.R. Tolkien.
From Dune...."He who can destroy a thing (spice) controls it.
I have read the Saudi's have "mined" their oil fields with radioactive materials which they will detonate if a "foreign power" tries to take them (from Seymour Hersh the reporter, I believe).
Daniel Pipes is a right wing neo con lunatic. Gerald Posner wrote a book a couple of years ago expounding on 'why everything that the Warren Commission found about the JFK assination was absolutely and without a doubt unquestionably correct'...Draw your own conclusions.
Green--
I had Frank Herbert as one of my guest professors in A Future Of Man class at UCSB (Among the others were Buckminster Fuller and BF Skinner)--
Dune is one of the classics--
I doubt that education experience is available to the "education as a capital investment" generation of worker bees currently in the Factory.
Cool. Skinner was an interesting guy too... I liked his pigeon-guided missile.
I wonder just how the U.S. will actually take the Iranian oil reserves, or even the Saudi reserves, given that our military is spread paper thin already covering Iraq and Afghanistan. there are some 65 million people in Iran and lots of them would apparently like to self destruct if in so doing they would kill an American or 2.
A large part of our problem in Iraq was the result of our failure to put enough boots on the ground to hold things together after we destroyed the Iraqi army. How are we going to protect the infrastructure, let alone secure the cities? Look at the story about the Mexican pipeline attacks. They have 60,000 km of pipelines. Would it take 1 soldier every 200 meters to keep the bad guys away? That's 300,000 soldiers. Next, think of the rail lines. Put a guard or 2 on every bridge or culvert?
Well, lets draft a few million, just in case. Better do that before the invasion of Iran. Like maybe, starting next week.
E. Swanson
I am reminded of Hitler in his bunker. As the Russians closed in on Berlin, I believe that he was sending orders out to armies that had long since been overrun by the Allies. I believe that Hitler put a new general in charge of the German air force, not long before the Russians took Berlin.
Of course, Hitler didn't have thousands of nukes, and the US military is battered, but still very effective.
However, as it becomes increasingly clear to American soldiers that they are dying to keep the petroleum flowing to American SUV's, I have long thought that we might see more and more refusals to deploy, at least in the junior to midlevel officer ranks. As General Newbold pointed out in an essay in Time Magazine a couple of years ago, military officers do not swear to obey orders. They swear to uphold and defend the Constitution.
Black_Dog: You assume our mission in Iraq is to "hold things together". The actions of viceroy Bremer and others do not seem to indicate that your assumption is warranted.
wt: Better watch yourself in light of the new EO! We were disposing a violent dictator and are spreading democracy. Pure and simple--it has nothing to do with these "SUV's" you write of.
Upon careful and mature reconsideration, I have concluded that George Bush is my hero, that he is incapable of making a mistake and that I believe everything he says.
I think it was Michael Klare who said recently that the US WILL lose control of ME oil. The only alternative is to blow it all up so nobody else can have it.
I just tried to work out a way that blowing up Saudi Arabia might be attractive to the neocons, and it just got too complicated. If the booby-traps are there, then even if we exterminated the regime in Riyadh, we'd lose the flow from Saudi Arabia for years. The problem is that the other exporting nations would then move to fill the gap in the global marketplace, forcing the US into a bidding war. I heard that right now the US gets shares of roughly over 10% each from Saudi, Kuwait, Mexico, Canada and Nigeria. If Saudi goes down, the Persian Gulf becomes pretty unusable so I think we can kiss Kuwait goodbye. I'm just not sure that Canada and Mexico can fill our demand even at gunpoint. We need to wait for more oil sands infrastructure to be built in Canada and Venezuela so our troops can get it easily. Nigeria might just ship more oil to Europe.
Now if we could be absolutely certain that the booby traps weren't there, then the old Kissinger plan of seizing the fields but leaving the government intact is an option, but I'd be damn scared of the retaliation. The Saudis seem to have a record of backing elusive insurgents successfully.
It seems that, just as 1930s Japan found that it couldn't solve its economic problems without a series of acts that ultimately would mean war with the US, and thus cut to the chase by bombing Pearl Harbor, now the US can't get out of its hole without nuking a bunch of countries at the same time, because otherwise the survivors would unite against us and bring down our global economic empire. As the world's 2nd biggest nuclear power and its biggest oil producer, Russia is where all the madness must culminate. We'd have to do the Big One. Well what if we hit 'em with a thousand nukes, took out the government, and there were still 100,000,000 Russian survivors marching West? It's no good. We are borrowing so much money from so many countries that we can't afford any disruption in the global bubble. Or we must enslave everyone in the world at the same time and overnight convert to a Nazi-style theft economy. There's no in-between.
I bet they stay awake at night in Washington trying to figure out how to pull it off, though.
Why nuke Russia? They export oil, we import oil. Nuke western Europe instead.
West Texas: Its wonderful to read that you have given your unqualified support to our dear beloved Great Decider! wink,wink,nudge,nudge
Did you comment on the thread yesterday about England? It's got to be the poster child for the ELM; declining production meeting rising internal consumption means no exports.
Flavius Aetius
The UK hit peak production and peak exports in 1999. They were a net importer in 2006. Their decline rate in net exports, from 2000 to 2005, was 60% per year. This was actually worse than the decline rate for my hypothetical Export Land Country.
Yes, and this would suggest you are being conservative in your model.
The wheels should start falling off England's cart pretty soon.
Flavius Aetius
You can't refuse, but there are drugs in Iraq, just like in Vietnam. Drugs, the escape for an inescapable situation. You watch. And just like Vietnam the drugs will come back home.
You've heard about developing a fusion-powered economy?
That may be the plan. Not a GOOD plan, but no more delusional than the other plans we've seen lately. The way it works is you convince the rest of the world that you're crazy and belligerent enough to drop fusion devices on them, and they give you cheap oil and other stuff. Very high EROEI.
It won't WORK, but that's currently not a popular criterion for energy plans anyhow.
Finally fusion is past break-even!
They don't need to take control - only to deny access to others. Part II of the plan is the dieoff. The dieoff is necessary - so it is better to control it than to let it happen.
Yes, it is way too complicated. It needs to be gamed out by a number of groups of well informed people. I don't have a clue how to set that up. But don't tell me Cheney et al aren't doing it on an ongoing basis. They have their version of the Second Foundation going. Traces of it leak out of the Manhattan Institute now and then - I'm thinking of their work on controlling language at the level of what thoughts one can formulate.
Tainter is our best hope. Third Foundation on Tainter; localization destroys the First and diversity the Second.
cfm in Gray, ME