DrumBeat: July 28, 2007

Hydrogen Hype: Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Are No Panacea

I'm going to make a prediction today: you will never drive a hydrogen fueled car.

Although hydrogen does indeed have some benefits in certain applications, it's my task today to separate the reality of useful fuel cells from the hydrogen hype.

That may seem like a bold statement to you now, but by the end of this article, you'll understand why.

Juicing down for global warming

As it is, utilities can't keep up with rising demand. One projection shows a 19 percent rise in peak-time electricity usage over the next decade while only a 6 percent growth in power capacity.

Something's got to give. And it may be consumer lifestyles.

A three-year experiment in California with 2,500 customers showed they reduced their average electricity demand by 13 percent during peak summer hours when they had to pay five times the normal cost. Users with the kind of "smart" thermostats that adjust appliance use cut back by 27 percent.


Oil Profits Show Signs of Aging

Exxon Mobil Corp.'s disappointing second-quarter results highlight a new reality for the oil business: Increasing profitability amid today's high prices is increasingly difficult.


A federal energy policy: can it happen here?

What makes the United States singularly incapable of producing a coherent energy policy aimed at cutting energy consumption and using low-carbon alternatives to fossil fuels? I believe there are three factors explaining this lamentable state of affairs. The first is that your average American citizen has the energy IQ of beach sand, and, in this regard, your average Member of Congress is the mirror image of his or her constituents. For proof, I would direct your attention to Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, who regularly appears on news programs to suggest that gasoline is overpriced at $3.00 per gallon and that motorists are being fleeced by dastardly oil companies.


ExxonMobil Loses Alaska Pipeline Case

A federal appeals court on Friday rejected an effort by Exxon Mobil Corp. to overturn rules governing access to a potential multibillion-dollar pipeline that would transport natural gas from Alaska to the Lower 48 states.


Climate change escalates Darfur crisis

Less rainfall on the fringes of the Sahara Desert is putting more of a strain on resources than ever before.


Mexican insurgents try out new tactics

A successful bomb attack by a resurgent revolutionary army has forced the Calderon administration into a dual-front battle to maintain security and, maybe, economic well being.


Did Guerrillas Strike at the Heart of Mexico's Oil Industry?

Although the Mexican government refrained from using the T-word, it was definitely in the air. "EPR ALLIANCE WITH AL QAEDA!" whooped the headlines on newspapers hanging from the kiosks. Indeed, a purported Al Qaeda document emerged in 2006 encouraging attacks against U.S. allies that supply Washington with oil - Mexico exports 1.6 million barrels of petroleum to the U.S. daily, without which George Bush would be hard pressed to wage war in Iraq.


Energy Diplomacy and the Crossroads in South American Unification

It's possible to postulate that these days the integration of the countries of South America finds itself at a crossroads. Different strategies have converged to the point where the large trade blocs find themselves at a standstill and turn into political forums. The new attempts are centered on energy, and from there new proposals arise. Brazil has sought to lead by consensus but has not been willing to pay the economic and political price of this position, while Venezuela is exploring another avenue by sharing energy projects and resources with other countries.


Venezuela Takes Over Two Maersk Rig Contracts

Venezuelan state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, or PdVSA, has taken over two contracts this month to operate drilling rigs from Danish oil services firm Maersk Oil & Gas.


Should Canadian farmers cash in on biofuel boom?

Soybeans supply 40 per cent of Brazil's biodiesel -- and NASA observers have linked an increase in their market price with the destruction of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil is also the largest producer of sugarcane in the world -- it makes 60 per cent of the globe's total sugar ethanol, and uses 13 per cent of its total herbicide load growing the crop.

"Brazil has a huge ethanol industry," Holt-Giménez said. "The environmental costs are tremendous, and the returns so paltry."


Feeding Billions, A Grain at a Time

As development and climate change imperil rice yields, scientists seek new Green Revolution


The corn gamble: It's the crop of the year -- but will it make it?

The corn soars head-high on Ripp's Dairy Valley here north of Madison.

Green leaves flutter in the breeze as dairyman Chuck Ripp surveys his fields on a humid July morning.

But looks don't tell the story. A lack of significant rain this month -- Thursday and Friday's was spotty -- has farmers worrying.

"The corn is really tall but that's kind of deceiving," said Ripp. "We're getting into a real critical time."


Analysis: Oil part of large Iraq conundrum

Iraq's government is in the eye of a storm of deadlines and benchmarks and pressure from within and abroad. At some level, it's all about the oil.


Gas stations have generators now, but will they have gas after a Big One?

Jim Smith, president of the Florida Petroleum Marketers & Convenience Store Association, said state and local officials have worked with the industry to help station owners comply. But, he said, he's not sure it will solve the fuel shortage problem Florida often sees after hurricanes because there still may not be gas to pump.

"Most inventories are going to be depleted during evacuation," Smith said. "There will not be an opportunity to get resupply into those retail facilities, so a lot of them that have capabilities with transfer switches won't have the availability of petroleum to pump, so it's not going to change a whole lot."


India: Coal supply woes threaten NALCO's Angul unit

A shortage of coal is threatening power supplies to the only aluminium smelter run by National Aluminium Co. Ltd. (NALCO), a company source told Reuters on Friday.


Ghana: LPG gas shortage grounds commercial cars

Most commercial drivers in Tema have for the past 10 days parked their vehicles because of the shortage of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in the system.

The situation has compelled domestic users of gas to resort to charcoal and its price has suddenly increased from GH¢8 to GH¢ 12 per maxi bag.


Hydrogen can replace gasoline, scientist contends

Stanford Ovshinsky, founder and chief scientist of Energy Conversion Devices Inc. in Rochester Hills, told the Flint Rotary Club on Friday that the world has to convert to alternative forms of energy.

He said the scientific community predicts that if we do nothing, the planet's climate will be irreversibly changed in 20 to 25 years.

Ovshinsky said hydrogen can be used in place of other fuels.

"Anything that burns can be replaced by hydrogen now," he said.

"If you only have 20 more years to save the planet, you've got to do it now."

And with hydrogen, he said, "There's no war over oil."


Sprott's Peak Oil Watch

While browsing the web this morning, I came across a very interesting section on Peak Oil on Sprott Asset Management's website (best viewed with Explorer). Sprott Asset Management is a Toronto-based boutique investment management company that I consider, for lack of a better term, pretty cool. They have taken some relatively unorthodox commodities bets in the past and have often won them. For instance, they spotted the bull market in uranium very early on and did well as a result (PDF document).


Albania: Energy crisis cuts working hours

The Albanian cabinet has decided to cut the working hours of public employees amid a national energy shortage.

Beginning 30 July, government offices will be open only five hours a day “because of the energy crisis that the country is facing,” government spokesman Grid Rroji said Friday.


Finally, we get the message on fuel economy

Droughts in the Southwest and Mid-Atlantic United States. Floods in Texas, Southern England, China, Pakistan, Colombia and, of all places, Sudan. Watch global weather reports and, to paraphrase Bob Dylan, you don't need a weatherman to know which way global warming is blowing. It's blowing your way, and fast.


Energy conservation is key

When Barack Obama came to Detroit in May 2007, he proceeded to tell the experienced auto manufacturers how to make cars so that we can all “escape the tyranny of oil.” He got up that morning like you and I, probably brushed his teeth with a toothbrush made out of petroleum products, put on his clothes made out of petroleum products, traveled to the Detroit Economic Club function in his car made out of petroleum products, and walked up to the podium on a rug made out of petroleum products, only to give his questionable advice to a group of experts and deface a commodity that put the clothes on his back.

Does he realize that we all need this precious commodity with or without high-cost subsidized alternate fuels?


Airlines struggle to contain costs

U.S. airline stocks dropped Thursday as carriers continued to struggle with high fuel prices and maintenance, though AirTran Holdings Inc. increased second-quarter profits by cutting costs in other areas.


Current Japanese car craze is tiny

After first pioneering the gas-sipping compact, then subcompact, the country's auto companies are scoring again with another downsizing -- the so-called "minicar."

Tiny, cheap and super fuel-efficient, minicars are essentially motorcycle-sized engines on four wheels. But demand for these runty runabouts is anything but petite. Last year, minicars racked record sales in Japan and now account for more than a third of all new cars sold annually here.


The most dangerous metaphor

Metaphorically speaking, the end of Moore's Law would be quite a shock. Moore's Law inspires the kind of techno-utopianism that believes, almost as an act of faith, that humanity can innovate itself out of the messes it creates by sheer cleverness. Peak oil? Don't worry about it - once Moore's Law starts working its magic on solar power, we'll have all the energy we need. World hunger in an era of drought and devastating climate change? No problem. Moore's Law applied to biotechnology tells us that we will keep redesigning plants to deliver ever greater yields under ever more drastic conditions.


China oil thieves sentenced to death

Two men were sentenced to death for masterminding a plan to steal oil from an underwater pipeline, a botched plot that caused tens of millions of dollars in damages, China's state news agency reported Saturday.


Canada to face oil pipeline shortage: regulator

Canada's crude-oil pipelines may have to ration space as early as this autumn because of a surge of new oil production from the Alberta oil sands, the country's energy regulator said on Friday.

The National Energy Board said the pipeline industry may face a capacity crunch as oil output this year rises to 2.9 million barrels a day, 9 percent more than in 2006.


Europeans reluctant to give up cars despite environmental concerns

A majority of citizens believe that the use of less polluting vehicles and public transport should be promoted, but one in five would refuse to use their car less in exchange for better public transport, according to an EU opinion poll.


Tiny Tuvalu Fights for Its Literal Survival

The second smallest nation on Earth hopes to turn itself into an example of sustainable development that others can emulate.

But the South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu and its 10,500 people may only have 50 years or less to set that example before it is swept away by rising sea levels due to climate change.

"It's how cats stalk their prey, if you've noticed. They don't hide. They move up so slow and hold still so long that their prey gets used to them and thinks, well it hasn't harmed me so far. And then all at once they pounce, no warning at all. Except there's been plenty of warning, iffen that poor bird or mouse had had the brains to just get up and move."

Alvin Maker,
The Crystal City by Orson Scott Card

I thought this was a good alternative to the boiling frog quote that comes up here so often.

Cats can sometimes sneak to within 5 angstroms of their prey before pouncing. Moores law will continue to work fine for humans, untill it doesnt work anymore. shrub may be only a few angstroms from pouncing...but I have seen no one moving, no flight, no hopping, no real protest, just apathy. Increases in population will at some point beg the question: Is there a place to get up and move to? A place that has potable water, productive soil, relative peace? Americas clamp down on her borders reminded me of a bit I read in 'The Coming Anarchy.'

'The more fictitious the actual sovereignty, the more severe border authorities seem to be in trying to prove otherwise. Getting visas for these states can be as hard as crossing their borders. The Washington embassies of Sierra Leone and Guinea--the two poorest nations on earth, according to a 1993 United Nations report on "human development"--asked for letters from my bank (in lieu of prepaid round-trip tickets) and also personal references, in order to prove that I had sufficient means to sustain myself during my visits. I was reminded of my visa and currency hassles while traveling to the communist states of Eastern Europe, particularly East Germany and Czechoslovakia, before those states collapsed.' Robert Kaplan

Yes having to have a visa just to go to Canada now basically 'closes the border' for the average individual who won't or can't cough up the cash for it. I grew up on the US Canadian border, and it used to be commonplace to go across the river for a beer. Not any more. (except for those with boats)

That sounded unbelievable, so I checked the Canadian Citizenship and Immigration website, and found that US citizens do not need a visa to go to Canada. Perhaps you meant passport? I've heard that a lot of Americans don't have one.

My old one expired, I'm just waiting for the backlog to be worked down before applying for a new one. Canada? We may soon need one to get into the next county at the rate things are going!

America is large enough to travel quite a bit without a passport. I managed to visit Jamaica, Hawaii, St Croix, Mexico and Canada before needing passports to visit Europe. I probably couldn't do that today.

That said, I worked with fellows who had never traveled outside Pennsylvania, and never even made it to Pittsburgh or Philly.

Jussi: It is my understanding that the requirement comes from the US government, not Canadian, i.e. as a US citizen you will have trouble getting back into your own country. They might have delayed this change, but it is the US government behind the increased bureaucracy.

yeppers. the USA wants passports for people flying in from canada as of jan 2007. As of jan 2008 they want them for people driving across the boarder.

The same goes for USA citizens going out and coming back in.

pretty much a police state now. im heading down to california to visit my friend. it's not going to be easy going, i have to have a bunch of ridiculous stuff together just to prove im not stealing yeeer jeebs, when im travelling for pleasure and some school shopping.

Yes it is delayed again. The passport requirement was first due to phase in at the beginning of 07, but delayed one year by popular demand.

At present you must have either a passport or birth certificate (copies don't count) to get back into the U.S. from Canada or Mexico.

I recently applied for a passport only to have the State Department take posession of my Birth Certificate during the process. The copy of the application form plus receipt are good to get me back into the country until I get my passport. Assuming I have been a good boy and they give me a passport, lol. Oh yea, and my cert back...

As an aside, I have crossed into Canada and back around 200 or so times in the last year and been asked for proof of citizenship exactly 2 times so far by a U.S. customs agent.

Same goes for Canadian customs, 2 times, there is one lady agent that has taken it upon herself to be sure we can get back into the U.S. Never mind that by the time you get to the Canadian customs booths you have left the U.S. anyway, lol.

Silly!

You only need a passport if your FLYING back into the US. You can still drive and boat in just like you always could, at least until 2009...

You must provide proof of citizenship if asked no matter how you are traveling when re-entering the U.S.. In 2009 you will need a passport, unless postponed again.

I can confirm this as a cat owner(or more likely owned by cats). If you play with them using a object to mimic prey, the more you move it the less they are interested in it to a point. they will still watch it but to get them to pounce on it you have to make the object seem like it doesn't notice the cat. This is generally done by keeping it still for a little wile after moving it about to first draw their interest.

Donal,
Its only a good alternative if you don't like the flavor of frog and dumplings.
Bob Ebersole

Perhaps seen here earlier, but an interesting example from Thailand:

http://www.janes.com/news/transport/business/jwr/jwr070725_1_n.shtml

State Railway of Thailand to undertake ambitious development project.

The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is on the verge of an ambitious THB16.5 billion (USD511 million) development project that will take the country's rail infrastructure into the 21st century and set it up for gradual privatisation.

[...]

He says: "Right now in Thailand, 88 per cent of all freight transport is by road - freight rail transport accounts for only 2.8 per cent. And the high increase in oil prices has caused everyone to think about how to shift the mode of transport to rail from road. So we have a target from the government: we need to increase freight rail by [sic] 15 per cent in five years - that's more than five times what it is now. At SRT, we have to make this possible."

Another significant factor in Thailand's decision to modernise its railways is the proportionally high rate of energy being used on Thailand's roads - 38 per cent of all Thailand's fuel goes into cars, which is nearly double the comparative figure for the US.

That is a pretty explicit example of oil prices affecting national policy.

I was wondering when the Thais would get around to doing that. A couple of years ago they committed to a massive Urban Rail program. Whilst they were debating about which line got built where (normal politics), they agreed to build three subway/elevated Rapid rail lines in Bangkok just to get going !

Thailand is also promoting biogas on farms and biogas SMALL tractors.

No nation is doing enough pre(?)-Peak Oil, but Thailand is on the short list of nations doing something significant.

Their Finance Minister also warned industry to diversify beyond exports to the USA.

Best Hopes for Those Trying to Prepare,

Alan

Well, as they are run by a junta so decisions are not fought in open politics...

Have you been to Thailand? Gorgeous place for photo-ops. Yes, the elevated rail is fairly popular:
http://home.att.net/~picarchive2/7300DPP_N.JPG
(You can guess what the favorite color of the Thai is...) However, the lines run above the most busy streets, and the air is almost unbreathable outside due to all the fumes coming from below. The subway I found much nicer but very limited. Again though, walking to the subway station one nearly chokes on the polluted air.

The Bangkok elevated rail uses Siemens cars (which I didn't really care for), and given Thailand's close relationship with Japan I had hoped they would have used Japanese cars. The biggest limitation I discovered is that the lines ended too soon. The system really only services the hotel areas and a bit of main part of Bangkok. While you and I would find the fares to be quite low, I was told that for many Thai it is still too expensive.

I visited one of the standard rail stations too... fascinating place, it really felt like a 1930's station one sees pictured in old films.

I hope for my Thai friends that they can indeed both clean up the air in Bangkok and be able to continue on with less oil.

The decision as what lines to build where was done before the coup d'etat, when normal political discourse prevailed.

I remember that they budgeted several % of GNP to the program, but do not have the details readily available.

Still, I was impressed that they agreed to start building the highest priority new lines (none of which are yet open) almost immediately while debating the rest.

BTW, was waiting on the platform difficult because of the pollution below or was the air a bit cleaner above ?

I found the breezes on the Miami elevated platforms quite nice (a bit cooler and it seemed cleaner).

Best Hopes for a Maximum Effort,

Alan

There were a couple of times while waiting on the platform that I had a little difficulty breathing - the air was really that bad. At least as bad as LA ever got in the dirty old days. Worse really because the humidity was also so high. It was the worst city air I have ever breathed.

One afternoon I visited an out of the way temple and took tuk-tuk across Rattanakosin... what a disaster. Must have took 2 months off my life! My lungs hurt all night. Maybe I'm just a wimp, but the Japanese was so very much cleaner.

Because of all of the pollution perhaps it is all the better that Thailand won't be able to afford to up oil imports. To rapidly build out Bangkok's rail is probably a double win for them.

It is interesting that Thailand is also one of the few countries in that sweet spot where their ecological footprint hasn't let exceeded max sustainability (or at least not by very much yet), but where they have nevertheless achieved a pretty decent level of human development. See article by Francois Cellier, in particular my exchange with him:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2534#comment-190859

Unfortunately the quoted 16.5 Billion Baht will not be bring the Thai rail infrastructure into the 21st century. Outside the Bangkok metropolitan area the rail network is in deplorable condition, the rail beds are often washed out and when in working order, the rail bed is anything but level. A very small percentage of the rail system is double track, the mentioned plans above amount to less than 130 km of new double track to the existing 4135km of the metregauge network.

The SRT is looking for 200 billion Baht to make a more extensive upgrade of the rail network, but I do not believe this includes electrifying network.

To quote Alan, Best hopes for massive investment in Rail here too.

China finds use for Foreign Currency Reserves

Also from that link:

An announcement was made during the Chinese premier's recent visit to Thailand that $US 4 billion would be made available to Thailand for infrastructure development including rail. The deal could also include a counter trade element Although the details of this deal are not yet public, it is likely to include a rail link to China via Laos and the resurrection of the Hopewell project

China makes friends, reduces oil demand by a competitor, gets better access to the Middle East & Africa, and ...

Best Hopes for Strategic Thinking,

Alan

more likely china plans on taking over a shitton of countries and wants rail for logistical support.

>1 trillion in foreign currency reserves can buy a lot of countries. A LOT.

remember logistics wins wars.

China has created an entire department in government to figure out ways to get the most bang for their $s. China is also doing development projects in African countries with their dollar deposits.

Everything you say is true. But they've been talking about upgrading the rail system for over a decade now. Long before the oil crisis hit.

Thailand is blessed by having probably the most intelligent and genuinely concerned monarchs in the world today. People from the West often don't understand, but the King of Thailand is one of the best examples of a human being alive, and he has been educating the public on sufficiency and energy solutions since the 1970's. You would think that people would have been paying more attention.

Still you get comments like this from the Democratic party, preparing for the upcoming election:

http://nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/read.php?newsid=30042838

The coup was probably the best thing that has happened to the country in the last 5 years. Too bad it can't stay this way. Thailand will soon be reintroducing "democracy" back into the equation, and all the ridiculous politics and stupid policies that go with it.

Between the West and Thailand, I'd still choose Thailand. I wouldn't be here if I thought otherwise, but don't give them too much credit. Without the King they'd be driving themselves right into the gutter just like the rest of the world.

They still might. We'll have to wait and see...and hope.

Tom In Thailand

great perspective
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man

My goodness TiT - you have really bought the whole "divine wisdom of the monarch" thing in Thailand, haven't you? Hook line and sinker it seems. Ideology working at its best - democracy is just such a pain in the arse, isn't it ...

Re: Moore's Law

If it applied to cars and people, we'd be about the size of viruses now and drive around on roads the width of spiderweb.

Unfortunately the miniaturization of people hasn't kept pace.

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

I went to get gas this morning, and found the gas station I usually go to was dry. All sixteen pumps had yellow plastic bags over the nozzles. That's the first time I've ever seen that.

I should have stopped and asked them what happened, but I was kind of in a rush.

Leanan, If you dont mind saying...what part of the country are you in? Thanks.

I'm in the northeast. It's a Mobil station.

Hopefully you do not live in Boston below sea level.

Alan

I figure the area I'm in is good for at least another hundred years or so, even in the worst-case scenario. I could end up being a lot closer to the beach than I am now, though!

In any case, I'm not sure I'm staying here. My family is all elsewhere, so I don't really have roots here. The way I figure it, peak oil and climate change have the potential for generating so much chaos that the best preparation is to be ready to move.

I love Boston - my sister used to live there - but it's doomed. The Big Dig is going to prove a monumental waste of money.

What's the elevation in Nawleans where you live Alan?

About 300 feet below the elevation where I live. ;-)

At street level, about +1 foot (I rent the "basement". i.e. ground floor). The rental house I own a % of (my % pays for my rent + utilities) five blocks away is +1.5 feet at street level and it is elevated an extra 3 feet above that.

Best Hopes for No More Federal floods,

Alan

I noticed a really annoying practice by gas stations after Katrina.

At first they were removing the price from their signs to show they were out.

Then they switched to the plastic bag. So you usually had to drive into the station to see they were out.

In the end they stopped posting any notice at all. The pumps just wouldn't work.

I suspect this has to do with them trying to generate foot traffic for their stores.

It was bad enough having to drive all over town for gas, but stopping and getting out of the car at every station started to really piss me off.

Thursday there was no regular or mid-grade at the discount chain here in north Florida. The delivery truck showed up Friday night, though.

Several of my relatives just headed out for a three week drive, PA to Seattle and back. I told them that gasoline might be a problem, drought might be a problem, but they just shrugged it off.