DrumBeat: August 15, 2007
Posted by Leanan on August 15, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tropical Storm Dean heads towards Caribbean

Dean has a good probability of becoming "the first hurricane of the Atlantic season as it tracks west over warmer waters," said meteorologist Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center....Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's biggest oil company, evacuated some staff from the Gulf of Mexico as a safety precaution. About 100 people were expected to be evacuated Tuesday after 88 were removed Monday, the company said on Monday in a statement on its website.
Dean could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 74 to 95 mph in two to three days and a Category 2 (winds of 96 to 110 mph) or Category 3 (winds of 111 to 130 mph) in four or five days, the National Hurricane Center said.
Air Force Big: Bomb Iran's Oil?
What does every war-fighting effort require? Fuel. In this instance, Iran has real vulnerabilities that the “overwhelming application of the air instrument” can exploit.Specifically, despite huge reserves of crude oil, Iran nevertheless must import about half of its gasoline, largely because of a shortage of domestic refinery capacity. Targeting what refinery capacity Iran possesses could directly and concretely erode its ability to support Iraqi insurgents.
Oil refineries are ideal targets for air and missile attack. They are large, relatively “soft” facilities that are difficult for even the most modern air defense to protect. At the same time, they represent wholly lawful targets generally subject to attack with a minimal risk of collateral damage.
Myanmar's junta imposes fuel hike
Myanmar's ruling military junta imposed a surprise 100 percent hike on fuel at state-owned gas stations on Wednesday, apparently to keep up with global oil prices.As usual in the tightly controlled country, the price hike was not officially announced and car owners discovered the increases only when they drove up to fill their tanks.
...Although no official reason was given many believe the increase stems from the government's shortage of foreign currency to purchase fuel from abroad.
Belarus to dump Russian rouble in favour of US dollar
Belarus will unhook its currency from the Russian rouble to tie it to the US dollar, the Interfax news agency reported on Wednesday.
Tbilisi natural gas distributor announces overtures towards Iranian producers
Tbilisi officials have asked Iran for gas before, during last winter's energy crisis. The gas supply from Russian was cut off after explosions crippled the pipeline feeding Tbilisi. The US turned a blind eye to temporary gas imports from Iran, Khukhashvili says, given the exigent circumstances.A number of US officials, however, have more than once voiced their country's opposition to a long-term Georgian energy pact with Iran.
Big oil groups that declared force majeure and quit Somalia 16 years ago will be given the chance to resume their activities under the anarchic country’s proposed hydrocarbon law.
Singing the nation electric, part 2: post-oil democracy
Before fossil fuels and industrial machinery transformed the way goods and services were produced, all societies had an energy problem. Some wind power and hydropower was used, but the main energy sources were humans and animals. For the powers-that-were, slavery and serfdom were convenient ways to ensure an adequate supply of human-sourced energy. What will happen when fossil fuels are no longer available; will the global elite be in a position to reimpose serfdom and slavery?
Brooklyn street proves yes, we all can get along
What is it about Coney Island Avenue?That's what Brooklyn College sociologist Jerry Krase wonders as he rides the B68 bus along this 5-mile commercial strip, which is populated at various stops by pockets of West Indians, Latinos, Pakistanis, Indians, Orthodox Jews, Chinese, Russians, Israelis and Ukrainians.
How do so many different kinds of people live so closely yet so peacefully?
Part 1: A Glimpse of the Energy Future
"Creating more energy-efficient buildings is not only part of the overall solution but is the number one most cost-effective opportunity to reduce the nation's energy consumption and affect climate change," says Jeff Christian, a buildings technology researcher at ORNL and coordinator of the Habitat for Humanity project. "Yes, we must replace oil with biofuels. Yes, we must pursue other supply-side solutions in an environmentally acceptable manner. But there is enormous potential to reduce energy demand in the buildings sector, and that is by far the cheapest solution if we really want to address this problem."
German solar firms boost capacity to meet demand
Germany's solar companies are driving up capacity to meet strong demand for renewable energy, while access to silicon remained the make-or-break factor for their second-quarter results on Tuesday.
Scientists warn Arctic sea ice is melting at its fastest rate since records began
This year has seen one of the most rapid rates of sea ice melting, which began in spring after one of the most disappointing winters for ice formation. "Unless something unusual happens we're definitely on track for a record loss of sea ice. We're on track to shatter all records," said Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University in Denver. "The rates of sea ice loss this year are really rather remarkable. Some of the daily rates of loss are the biggest we've ever seen. Things are happening really fast," Dr Serreze said.
Coal-to-liquids touted as way to U.S. energy independence
“It’s clear to most people that the United States is too dependent on overseas sources of petroleum. The petroleum supply, we think, is becoming more limited. We believe the technology exists to expand the supply of liquid fuels by using coal for that purpose.”
Carbon market encourages chopping forests: study
The current carbon market actually encourages cutting down some of the world's biggest forests, which would unleash tonnes of climate-warming carbon into the atmosphere, a new study reported on Monday.
Disappointing 1H Douses Hope for '07 Big Oil Output Gains
Halfway through the year, hopes for 2007 output growth from the major energy companies have been extinguished.This year is forecast to be the latest in a long string of disappointments, as governments tighten their grip on hydrocarbons resources and rising costs make it increasingly difficult to shore up oil and gas production in mature, declining fields around the world.
Over the past four years, surging energy prices contributed to quarter after quarter of record profits for the large integrated energy companies, overriding investor concerns about weakening output. The worry: Big Oil is experiencing difficulties in tapping resources amid political upheaval and more stringent contract terms from key producers. Now that crude-oil and natural-gas prices have stabilized, prospects for profit growth have dimmed, and attention has refocused on production.
"These companies continue to disappoint in terms of value growth, particularly for oil," said Rod Oster, an analyst at A.G. Edwards in St. Louis, Mo. "The industry worldwide is having difficulty growing production."
Oil prices rise to mid-$72 a barrel
The U.S. National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said Tropical Storm Dean was heading west toward the Caribbean and forecast to be a strengthening hurricane, though it may reach major hurricane status."Oil prices picked up over the path that the tropical storm would take. There's projections for the path to go through various bits of oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico so that's worried the market a bit," said Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
Rescue crews evacuate oil platform
Rescue helicopters evacuated more than 30 workers from an oil platform 125 miles off Scotland's coast late Tuesday following a fire in the engine room, the platform operators said.
Drilling Activity Hits New High in Ultra-Deep Gulf of Mexico
A record number of drilling rigs are currently working in ultra-deepwater in the Gulf of Mexico. "For the first time, 15 rigs are drilling for oil and gas in 5,000 feet of water or greater in the Gulf," MMS Director Randall Luthi announced today. "The continued increase in drilling activity is a show of confidence in the resource potential of the Gulf's ultra-deepwater frontier."
Venezuela Setting Up Oil Services Co.
Venezuela is creating its own oil-field services company to reduce dependence on foreign contractors, the country's top energy official said Tuesday.Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said the state-run oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, is starting its own version of Houston-based oil-field services company Halliburton Co. to provide services within the oil-producing country.
How to Solve Our Energy Issues—Fast
Instead of forcing automakers to improve fuel economy, a better way to save gas would be to lower speed limits and encourage telecommuting.
The IEA has been criticized in the past for overestimating future possible production increases. The fact the agency is revising its view, to bring it more in line with that of the peak oil crowd, was greeted by a big "we told you so" in that community. But the big reaction to the IEA's outlook was in financial markets where the stocks of solar energy companies were up 10% on average the day after the report came out. It seems investors are equating news about tight fossil fuel markets with buying opportunities in the alternative energy sector, and that's making it feel a lot like the early days of the dot-com boom.
China, India face water risk from biofuel
Present plans by China and India for biofuel production could mean they face water scarcity by 2030, a researcher said.Charlotte de Fraiture, a Colombo-based scientist with the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), said in an interview that she did not "see a lot of potential for biofuel production in either China or India because of the water.
"It's not that I'm saying don't go for biofuels. It's just that India and China are two water-short countries."
Global warming boosts crop disease
Global warming will fuel a disease that annually causes hundreds of million dollars in damage to rapeseed plants, used to make canola oil, according to a study released Tuesday.
Climate change adds to Africa cotton farmers' woes
African cotton farmers battling Washington over trade policies they say keep them poor have a new enemy: the shrinking rainy season.
Man to warm planet despite natural coolers
Man will keep heating up the planet over the next few years but natural factors like cooler seas could soften the blow, according to a new study by Britain's leading climate forecaster.In its first long-term global climate forecast looking at natural and human factors behind climate change, the UK's Met Office forecasts 2014 will be 0.3 degrees Celsius warmer than in 2004, in spite of the cooling effect of natural factors in the planet's atmosphere like lower sea temperatures.



The article over at the energy bulletin using Hubbert Linearization on worldwide phosphorus production was quite fascinating.
Usually a link is provided
It was posted and discussed in a previous DrumBeat, which maybe why he didn't bother to post the link again this time.
http://www.energybulletin.net/33164.html
Opps, Sorry.
This piece will be over here on Friday. :) Already in the works.
Hello Prof. Goose,
Greatly looking forward to this keypost. I am still trying to catch up on my reading on the great EB articles and links. The more I read about the fertilizer market, both synthetic and organic, the more alarmed I get for future generations to have an extremely tough, asphalt & concrete road to hoe. =(
This critical NPK supply chain closely parallels Peakoil, but started much earlier; metaphorically, we picked the easy fruit first even before the tree grew tall. Burning countless trees for potash, digging guano out of batcaves, or scraping off the bird poo residue on islands was ERoEI justifiable even before the advent of FFs, industrial mining, and the subsequent Haber-Bosch process for turning natgas into ammonia.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1132/is_n3_v50/ai_21031831/print
--------------------------
Liebig and the Nineteenth Century Crisis of the Soil
In the 1820s and 1830s in Britain, and shortly afterwards in the other developing capitalist economies of Europe and North America, concern over the "worn-out soil" led to a phenomenal increase in the demand for fertilizer. The value of bone imports to Britain increased from [pounds]14,400 in 1823 to [pounds]254,600 in 1837. The first boat carrying Peruvian guano (the accumulated dung of sea birds) arrived in Liverpool in 1835; by 1841 1,700 tons were imported, and by 1847 some 220,000 tons arrived. So desperate were European farmers in this period that they raided the Napoleonic battlefields (Waterloo, Austerlitz) for bones to spread over their fields.
---------------------------
I encourage all TODers to read the fertilizer snippets on Bart's EnergyBulletin.net.
I have posted much on Humanure Recycling before, and have been pissing in the backyard as much as possible to enrich the soil every since I encountered a few years ago the evolutionary reasons for 'pooping on the grass vs pooping on the rock-throne' in an article on Dieoff.com.
Yep, the tiny backyard is surrounded by a brick wall for privacy, and my longtime girlfriend [who owns the property, not me] has gradually gotten over her initial disgust, but refuses to join me in the activity or allow a compost pit. Her freakout denial runs deep, which breaks my heart: she refuses to discuss Peakoil, or even glance at my postings.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I have found you need to start from a different angle. Come at the subject obliquely. My wife is slowly becoming more interested in PO and the problems of resource use and population, but it has taken a couple of years. I try not to bug her about it, either... softly, softly, water wears down the rock eventually ;-)
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Hello NZSanctuary,
Thxs for responding. Brace yourself: a little more historical context on my Ass-Fault Wonderland, Thermo/Gene Collision situation on my local homefront [flamefront?]....
My intro to Peakoil was Jay's Dieoff in summer '03: I went from an energy article by Jane Byrant Quinn in a paper Newsweek mag that referenced a webpage that had a weak, but intriguing expose', but my eye caught the link to Dieoff in the corner...one click later my life had irrevocably changed as I had to actually go throw-up--> my mind was pre-wired to instantly grasp all the implications upon seeing the first Dieoff graphs. In short: I had taken the Red Pill like in the Matrix film. Elasped Full Conversion Time: ETA of approx 5 minutes.
I had read Paul Ehrlich's "Population Bomb" decades earlier as a 12 year old, but my still-developing mind must have subconciously processed this info, along with other newsbits for years, while I outwardly remained in what I now call my previous day-to-day 'Happy Idiot' mode. All my subsequent Dieoff exploration was not to mentally deny anything, but to merely reinforce my earlier, but hidden mindset.
Well, when my girlfriend suddenly saw a perfectly healthy guy suddenly retching his guts out into the toilet, she glanced at Dieoff on my computer, then did a little reading on her laptop, then nearly instantly went the opposite direction into severe fear & denial. Our relationship has never been the same since that fateful day; me--red pill, her-- a reinforced blue pill.
I often go into Zombie Mode, as she calls it, when I am deep in thought on a future posting concept, and she says it scares the Hell out of her when she encounters my thousand-yard stare. If I try to discuss Peakoil with her--'Talk to the Hand' or much worse.
I asked her to sell her house back in 2005, move to Cascadia, then I would rejoin her at some future time after my frail mom finally passed [that is if my girlfriend would still have me, but I was willing to take that chance]. No dice, she is locked into the 'psychology of prior investment'.
To show how diametrically opposed we are: we currently are renovating the inside of her house--carpets, curtains, paint, laminate flooring, etc, even though I pleaded with her to spend the money instead on energy-saving dual-pane glass, insulation, pot-belly wood-stove, etc. No way, Jose'.
Other examples:
I wanted to hoard the small woodpile for when we really needed it, but she went ahead anyway, burning it for the 'ambience' in our non-optimal regular fireplace.
I wanted to stockpile the old phonebooks for future toilet paper, but she ditched them behind my back.
I offered to buy a portable camping toilet that uses blue juice; that I would empty and clean it for both of us to save massive amounts of water. No deal--she loves flush toilets, over her dead body.
I am amazed I haven't lost my sense of humor, or worse, had a nervous breakdown; it is like our ying-yang harmony or feng-shui relationship/lifestyle is wildly out-of-whack to my mindset. I guess I now must be bi-polar-wired to handle the situation; I can easily flip from red pill to blue pill, or vice versa whenever required.
Or maybe I am just a Wild & Crazy Guy!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
wow
you are far more hardcore than I - I would be happy just to get her to let me complete a sentence about the subject, let alone watch End of Suburbia
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Hiya Bob. Tough situation. Sounds like you're stuck between the proverbial rock... keeping a sense of humour is a good investment IMO ;-)
Interesting how many people here have used the red pill/blue pill anology. Good fiction parallels life, I guess.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
My SO is willing to follow my Peak Oil dreams, as long as they don't lower my salary or harm our property value. =(
She would freak out if I peed or pooped on the garden. We do separate household waste into two bags for the garden:
1. vegetable scraps from the kitchen
2. shredded envelopes promising 0% interest home loans
Not much we can do about plastic itself?
I sadly have to say that your experience is not unusual (as I was waiting for the reply in new window to open i noticed you commented more below and read that).
With my wife I think she must get it - she is very smart - but her visceral reaction and aggressive denial have rocked our already shaky marriage. I think the clash between her need to buy more stuff and what is necessary to prepare for Peak Oil is going to be resolved for her by more denial and the disconnect being covered with more spending... I've commented before on the Louis Vuitton purses - ugh!
I am banned from even discussing it in the house. Ironically a sudden collapsed job situation (not unrelated to some of the behaviours I mention above) is likely to force us to take some of the Peak Oil preparation steps early anyway... at least I hope that's the road we go down.
But you aren't alone... I have two kids though, one of whom has special needs... I just cannot bury my head and let what's coming hit me unprepared... and if I am wrong? well the risk is too great not to try.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
SCO Forges Military Alliance, Rebuffs US
"This is Cold War Mark II folks — a deadlier sequel to Mark I now that China is on board. Fasten your seatbelts for an uncomfortable ride ahead!"
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=99810&d=14&m=8&y=2007
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070813/russia_china_war_games.html?.v=1
http://www.dailynews.lk/2007/08/14/wld02.asp
Sure looks like they are going up against some heavily armed 'terrorists'
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90783/6239040.html
Interesting to me that it is being spinned as "anti-terrorist" exercises. Who would be the target audience for that?
Doesn't seem it is us Americans. Seems more like the Russians (who have been at it for a while) and Chinese (new to me) governments recognise a good "enemy" when they see one, and are joining the US game of monsters under the bed. Hmmm....
Francois.
Perhaps they decided to add the US Military to THEIR terrorist List
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6947444.stm
Who could blame them? Like the US has the moral standing to label anyone anything as they're perpetrating this filthy war of aggression against Iraq.
SCO is made up of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran, Pakistan, India, and Mongolia have observer status. Iran may become a full member at this Summit.
Russia is currently upgrading Syria's military, Iran is paying for it. Russia is building a deep water port in Syria to house the Black Sea Fleet. China has troops in Lebanon. Kazakhstan has just completed a security agreement with Jordan. Afgahnistan's Karzai has attended previous SCO Summits.
Armenia and Belarus are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) along with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Their Leaders will attend the SCO Summit and war games but not participate.
Among full and observer members of the SCO, only Iran and Mongolia are non-nuclear.(Mongolia currently seeks world recognition as a nuclear-weapons-free zone. We know the story with Iran.)
Sounds a whole lot tougher than the Warsaw Pact.
Attacking Iran could be equivalent to attacking a Warsaw Pact country back in the days of the Soviet Union.
Agreed. It would be starting WW3. Cheney just may be clueless/insane enough to do it though.
Why not? Cheney personally started this new cold war with his stupid speech in the Baltics with Putin sitting just yards away.
/ Somewhat Off Topic /
I wonder if this new belligerence against Iran is related to Karl Rove's impending departure from the White House.
Rove's leaving will create an incredible power vacuum at the very top of the administration. If that role is filled with a neocon true-believer things could get even uglier.
My take: Rove's departure means that Cheney wins. And we know what he wants to do...
Hmmm. You'd have a hard time convincing me that Rove and Cheney were anything but bosom buddies.
At that level, people don't have buddies, they have interests.
Rove is fixated on Republican Votes. If bombing Iran can be spun as a vote-getter, he'd advocate it. He'd be for eating puppies if it helped Republican votes.
They were buddies for a long time because Rove thought that "acting tough on terrirsts" would play well in Ohio, suburban housefraus afraid of the next al-Qaeda bombing in Dayton, and that's why we have to be against terrorists in Iraq.
Even a true believer like Rove has finally figured out that getting spanked in 2006 (**) means that even some of Rove's base has grown weary of the BS.
Cheney, well, his motives are darker but clearly popularity isn't part of his calculus.
Hence on bombing Iran:
Rove: "No, don't do it, it's bad for retaking a Republican majority"
Cheney: "Do not underestimate the power of the Emperor."
And thus they part.
(**) The net margin of victory by Democrats in the latest Congressional election was greater than that of the 1994 "Republican Revolution" of Gingrich. And yet do you hear of the rippling muscular "mandate for change" and "revolution" and all that like 1994 from the supposedly "liberal" media?
Car has been wearing this a few years, getting truer all the time.
I like this one:
Don’t settle for the lesser evil. ;-)
If anything this will cause them to strike sooner. As in strike before they have a chance to piece together a good defence.
Share the End - Carly Simon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s09i4I6QdS8
Lyrics by: Jacob Brackman
Music by: Carly Simon
Here come the priests, each one wailing and bemoaning
Lordy, they got their heads bowed down
Here come the madmen, they're too excited for atoning:
"Burn the mosque," they're shouting, "Burn it down!"
Save me a place, surrounded with friendly faces
All of us have gathered here to share the end
To watch the world go up in flames
Please, Lord we're not ready
Give us a day
Give us an hour
Here come the kings, let's dispense with their apologizing
Just bring on the acrobats and clowns
Here comes the rumble, hang on for universal dying
Please ignore the baying of the hounds
Save me a place, surrounded with friendly faces
All of us have gathered here to share the end
To watch the world go up in flames
Please, Lord we're not ready
Give us some time to work things out
Please, Lord we're not ready
Give us a day
Give us an hour
Please, Lord we're not ready
Give us some time to work things out
Please, Lord we're not ready
Give us a day
Give us an hour
© 1971 Quackenbush Music Ltd./Kensho Music
We actually got 36 yrs and counting. More than asked for, apparently less than we needed.
Making the rounds elsewhere today...
Cheney in '94 on why we shouldn't invade Iraq (answer: it'd be a quagmire in his words)
http://screens.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/14/admire-the-quagmire/
I vouch for nothing about this video.
BP: 165/96. Pulserate 132 bps
Hello John Macklin,
IMO, the Critical Post of our early 21st Century!!!
Yep, the hairs stood up on the back of my neck and my pulserate went skyhigh too! If the MSM rebroadcast this on the boobtube everywhere tonight: resulting in an instant and overnight Pentagon military coup to re-install former Pres. Carter and his 'Sweater Speech' proposals until the 2008 election--> I would gladly support them 100%.
At the very least, this should be required viewing for possible military recruits before they decide to sign on the dotted line and be sworn in as military soldiers. It offers the best-chance to derail the '3 Days of the Condor' scenario and truly get serious about Asimov's Foundation and optimizing the Bottleneck Squeeze & Paradigm Shift.
Unfortunately, I feel the MSM will bury this ASAP. =(
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Looks like TPTB knew very well that a fracturing of Iraq (what we are seeing now) was a likely scenario before the invasion started. It begs the question: was the US ever "meant" to win, or was the current state of affairs the plan all along...? And if so, to what end?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
To the shrub adminstration this is winning. They're building the permanent bases and shoving the Oil Law down the Iraqis' throat so they'll eventually control the oil or steal it outright. That was the plan all along. Leaving is losing and they have no intention of leaving. Also, the war business is very profitable for well connected profiteers like KBR and Blackwater. That's the gravy.
And the hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis and thousands of dead GIs? In the immortal words of M. Albright: "worth it".
to what end ?
....... to facilitate the looting of the treasury.
Exactly.
What really bugs me is that we have actually let our governments get away with this sort of thing in broad daylight. Perhaps because too many of us want it... or rather don't want to face the consequences of not doing it.
Where's the tipping point? Or will it be a slow tilting?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
to what end ?
....... to facilitate the looting of the treasury.
quoting deep throat: "follow the money"
Bob - I'm passing on what I received from close family member by email who frequently comes up with over the top things. I noted overlap with Mr f elsewhere on this subject in RR's ethanol debate contribution.
I haven't a clue why anything from '94 is relevant. Those not burned out want some form of justice for the lying through their teeth bunch that has squandered so much blood. Is that it? Who knows. But why is this surfacing now? Who knows.
Meet the new puppeteer, same as the old puppeteer :)
Cid, if I remember correctly the US is the only state to have been found guilty of international terrorism by the World Court. It wouldn't surprise me if the US has produced more terrorist through Fort Benning than all other terrorist organisations put together. Quite simply the US is the number one supporter of terrorism throughout the world. Interesting article by Monbiot on the subject:
America’s Terrorist Training Camp
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2001/10/30/americas-terrorist-training-c...
Triumvirate of collapse - Economy, Ecosystem, Energy