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DrumBeat: October 16, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 16, 2007 - 8:52am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Supply concerns propel oil to new record
Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose $1.48 to settle at $87.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices reached a new record trading high of $88.20 earlier in the session and eclipsed the record close of $86.13 a barrel set on Monday.And this is one reason why:
PKK's Armed Wing Reiterates Threat To BTC Pipeline
A rebel Kurdish group Tuesday reiterated a threat to attack the BP PLC (BP)-led Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, a day before Turkey's Parliament is expected to approve a motion allowing the government to attack Kurdish separatists in Iraq.
A Three Way For The Real Third Way
My favourite line concerning the reams of “Is peak oil just a theory?” literature was actually told to me by a climate scientist. U of T's very own dr. Danny Harvey, a lead author of the IPCC's AR4. What he said was: "Peak Oil is a just theory in the same sense that Round Earth is just a theory."
Home-grown demand driving OPEC growth
OPEC members in the Middle East are becoming their own best customers for crude, as the booming region's growing demand for oil offsets weakness in the developed world to keep supplies tight and prices under pressure....Edward Walker, a former U.S. state department official and now a scholar with the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said much of the growth in demand for crude oil in the Middle East is the result of the producers' efforts to process the raw material before exporting it.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran in particular are investing billions to expand their refining and petrochemical capacity. In Iran, the government is imposing rationing in a so-far unsuccessful effort to reduce the consumption of heavily subsidized gasoline and diesel, which the country must import.
"As these countries start to build up their own economic capacity and standards of living start to increase, then the demand for petroleum product starts to go up in the Middle East, just as everywhere else, Mr. Walker said.
Will a New Phenomenon, The ‘ASPO Effect,’ Send Oil Prices Higher This Week?
Starting Wednesday the U.S. branch of a global group of oil experts who believe the world is at or very near “peak oil” production will hold a four-day meeting that could unleash an important new phenomenon impacting the price of oil.Call it the “ASPO Effect,” after the group that will be holding the meeting, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, commonly known as ASPO.
Venezuelan oil output fell 26,700 bpd
The performance of the Venezuelan oil industry last month was no good news, as domestic output tumbled 26,700 bpd and the country lost five rigs, while the other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) heightened production.
Russia promises stable energy supply to EU
Russia will maintain stable energy supplies to the European Union (EU) despite rising oil prices, Russian Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said here Tuesday.
Little Oil at Risk From Turkey-Kurdish Tension
Only a fraction of global oil supply could be immediately threatened by a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq, but crude prices have surged on concern any conflict may escalate and disrupt the flow from the Middle East.
Climate scientists paint grim coastal picture
Around the world, oceanographers, glaciologists and climate modellers are trying to get a handle on how much ice is likely to disappear from Greenland and Antarctica by 2100, and what the likely effect will be on our oceans, including on sea levels.Senior NASA climatologist James Hansen estimates this effect could raise our oceans by 5m over the next century. Most sea-level research, however, including that by three respected Tasmanian scientists, projects a 100-year rise of around 1m.
Fundamentals could brake oil before it hits $100
"It looks to us like oil is a $70-$80 commodity," said Adam Robinson, analyst at Lehman Brothers."We would expect additional oil from OPEC, Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico, combined with lower refinery demand for crude as the maintenance season deepens, to restrain crude oil price strength going forward."
Iran needs billions more dollars for fuel import
Iran needs to request an extra two billion dollars to import petrol after its original budget allocation ran out half way through the year, the Isna news agency reported yesterday.The shortfall comes despite a rationing plan imposed in June that aimed to curb Iran’s massive imports of refined oil products made necessary by its frenzied consumption and lack of refineries.
Iran fuel imports could drop to $4bn
Iran is expected to import about $4 billion worth of gasoline during the Iranian year ending in March 2008, a senior official said on Monday, suggesting a decline of at least 20% from the previous year.
Increases in corn prices causes difficulties for developing nations
"We're exporting less and have less surplus to send to these developing countries." Gregory McIsaac, professor of environmental science at the University of Illinois, said.Although we are not directly taking resources from these countries, the more the demand for corn rises, the less likely they will be able to purchase it.
Thailand: Pressure to lift fuel fees
Thai airlines are under strong pressure to raise fuel surcharges to respond to higher jet fuel prices, which are approaching US$100 per barrel.
Thailand: Bus riders to have a say on future fare increases
Last week, the central land transport committee decided to allow private bus operators to raise their fares, beginning yesterday, to cope with rising diesel fuel prices.Fares went up by 50 satang for regular city buses, one baht for air-conditioned city buses and by three satang per kilometre for inter-provincial buses.
However, Transport Minister Theera Haocharoen ordered the two state-run bus agencies, Bangkok Mass Transit Authority and the Transport Co, which operates inter-provincial buses, to freeze their fares for three months.
UK: Fuel duty increase has implications for all areas of life
Almost everything the nation consumes is the product of a lorry journey and the Government has now increased the cost of all of those journeys.
Greens seek plans to oil-proof Australia
Senator Milne said Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd needed to commit to a national target to oil-proof Australia."Let's replace 90 per cent of petrol demand by 2050 by electrifying both the public and the private transport fleet and let's move to a major injection into second generation biofuels," Senator Milne told reporters.
"The world is running out of cheap easily accessible oil."
The world is at an energy crossroads, and the decisions made about cars and oil in America and China over the next decade or so will set the course for the coming century. That is because energy infrastructure, be that automobile factories or petrochemical refineries, can last for decades, and the greenhouse gases emitted can last even longer. If we are to set our energy system on the right course before real crisis hits in a decade or two, we need to start that transition now.
Ports seek cost-effective energy
All this oil-generated market chaos makes what the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles are engaged in right now that much more relevant and timely.Flush with cash and eager to clean up the environment, port authorities are pouring tens of millions into the research, development and implementation of alternative fuels and energy options for the goods-movement industry.
Oil users brace for costly winter
Add another discouraging reality to an economic picture that already includes record home foreclosures, massive federal deficits and depressed consumer confidence: The cost of heating a home with oil will probably set another record this winter.
Venezuela contains some of the largest oil and natural gas reserves in the world. It consistently ranks as one the top suppliers of U.S. oil imports and is among the top ten crude oil producers in the world.
Demand for uranium strengthens, says ERA
URANIUM producer Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) says long term demand for the nuclear fuel remains strong after delivering a dip in output for the third quarter of 2007.
Australia: Riches in energy harvesting, farmers told
Farmers could be almost $3 billion a year richer if they invested in clean energy measures such as wind and carbon farming, according to a report by the nation's top science agency.
Winnebago Industries Inc.’s fourth-quarter earnings surged 59 percent, a reflection of increased sales of its larger and higher-profit motor homes.
Gathering takes on state of supply
The state of the world's oil resources will take center stage at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil's four-day conference in Houston this week.Speeches, round-table discussions and question-and-answer sessions will dominate the gathering at the downtown Hilton Hotel. Speakers will include Texas oilman and private equity firm head T. Boone Pickens; Matthew Simmons, CEO of Simmons & Company International; and U.S. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., co-chairman of the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus.
Libya sees no reason for further OPEC oil supply boost
OPEC member Libya does not see a need for the exporter group to raise oil output further to lower record oil prices and called on consumer countries to cut fuel taxes, the country's top oil official said on Tuesday.
Azarov: Ukraine is ready to refuse gas mediators
Ukraine’s government supports possible change to direct relations between “Gasprom” and “Naftogas Ukraine” under condition on acceptable gas price preservation. Finance Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov said that.
Indian Prime Minister calls off nuclear deal with the United States
India has officially informed the United States that it has frozen a bilateral nuclear deal that was supposed to herald a new strategic alliance between the biggest democracy in the world and the richest.
High uranium prices boost exploration: IAEA
igh uranium prices will spur exploration that could more than triple known global deposits, avoiding a shortage as China ramps up its nuclear capacity, a top executive with the International Atomic Energy Agency said.
No easy options on renewable energy sources
Sunlight, which is plentiful in South Africa, will not, like uranium and coal, become depleted.Yet Eskom, the national power utility, plans to invest far more on coal-fired and nuclear power than on solar or wind energy. Of the additional 40 000 megawatts (MW) Eskom plans to build, about 20 000MW will be generated from nuclear.
ANALYSIS-Biofuel industry fights the critics
Biofuel supporters are fighting criticism that the "green", alternative transport fuel has raised food prices and harms the environment, amid mounting evidence that the debate is harming the industry.
Cost of food aid soars as need rises
A "perfect storm" of drought, conflict and rising costs has increased the ranks of the chronically hungry by millions of people, and forced aid workers to find and fund longer-term solutions to the food crisis.The United Nations says the number of chronically hungry people worldwide rises by an average of 4 million each year.
At the same time global fuel prices have soared, pushing up road transport costs and global maritime shipping rates.
Thailand: Local fuel prices set to rise on global oil price surge
To ease a hardship of people, he suggested, the Energy Ministry reduce a contribution to the State Oil Fund temporarily and the people turn to consume gasohol because costs are lower.
Skybus cuts 3 of 5 West Coast flights
The announcement comes as oil prices have hit record highs, leading some airlines to raise ticket prices and shed fuel-guzzling long-haul flights in favor of shorter, more-profitable ones.
South Africa's Sasol coal mine strike affects output
South Africa's Sasol, the world's biggest maker of fuel from coal, said a strike over wages by some 2,000 workers at coal mines owned by entered its third day on Tuesday, affecting output.
Platts Says Daily Production May Fall
Platts Chief Economist Larry Chorn foresees tighter supply/demand balance in oil within three years. He bases this analysis on a significant under investment in global field development activities during 2005. Major oil fields require a minimum of three years of engineering and construction and often an additional year or more to reach peak production rates after start-up."The fact that the industry fell behind in 2005 investment, the most recent year that complete data is available, means there will likely be a continued tight supply demand balance in and beyond 2010, in spite of a 70 percent investment increase in 2005 over 2000."
The Platts study shows that the shortfall in 2005 could lead to a 0.8 million barrel per day reduction in anticipated spare capacity within three years, if the International Energy Agency (IEA) demand forecast is correct. This shortfall could grow to 4 million barrels per day in 2011 as existing fields continue to decline and demand rises.
OPEC says has done enough to cool record oil price
OPEC has done its utmost to satisfy the world's demand for fuel and pumping even more crude will do little to halt oil's rally towards $88 a barrel, officials said on Tuesday.
OPEC daily average oil prices hit record high
Daily average oil prices of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose by 0.51 U.S. dollars to a record 77.46 dollars per barrel last Friday, 0.03 dollars higher than the previous high on Sept. 28, the cartel said Monday.
Angola oil output set to rise above 2 mln bpd
Angola's crude oil production is expected to rise above 2 million barrels per day for the first time in December as new fields come online and others ramp up output, trade sources said on Tuesday.
Venezuela Will Avert Devaluation as Oil Soars, Citigroup Says
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's government will be able to avert a devaluation of the currency this year and next as a surge in the price of oil swells the nation's reserves, according to a report by Citigroup Inc.
Climate change: no more 'wait and see'
It was 1988 when NASA scientist James Hansen first testified before Congress about the human contribution to climate change and its potentially disastrous consequences. Early on, decision-makers and scientists each responded to research on global warming with a “wait and see” attitude. While many Americans remain skeptical, last week’s award is another sign that it’s time to make up our minds: global warming is real.At its first meeting in 1990, the IPCC wrote that observed increases in temperature “could be largely due to...natural variability.”
Since then, climate change research has matured, producing a strong body of evidence backed by robust statistics. Successive IPCC congresses have issued ever-grimmer reports about potential environmental consequences.
Change the message to save the planet
Once again, telling people they have to give something up is an unproductive way to change their behaviour. Advertisers, those experts in motivation, never use the word save. Even if a product saves time or money they still avoid the word and highlight the wonderful things you could do with that extra money or time.But people are not told about the wonderful things they could do with this planet if they save it. They are told, endlessly, of the appalling things that will happen if they don't. This is blackmail and it simply doesn't work.
But the biggest problem with "save the planet" lies with the underlying concept that people can be motivated to make personal changes by a gentle appeal to a vast collective goal. Why should anyone be told that it is their personal responsibility to save the planet any more than it is their responsibility to end global poverty or stop war?
Oil thundered towards $88 a barrel on Tuesday, hitting a new record and extending a rally that has added eight dollars in a week on tight supplies, strong demand and tension in northern Iraq.Oil is closing in on the inflation-adjusted high of $90.46 seen in 1980, the year after the Iranian revolution and at the start of the Iran-Iraq war. Prices this year have averaged $67.
At 7:08 a.m., U.S. crude was up $1.33 at $87.46, off a high of $87.97. London Brent was up $1.22 at $83.97.
Oil surges to record; gas prices don't follow suit
Veteran oil analyst Tom Kloza at consultant Oil Price Information Service called this "the last inning of the 2007 crude-oil (price) rally" in an analysis written Friday. He doesn't think the price will break $91.Brown says recent data show, "In general, expectations were that prices would stay below $95." He thinks that $10 of the current price is "froth" driven by speculators rather than true supply-and-demand issues. That means prices could tumble if investors decide oil is too expensive and start selling their holdings.
Kloza says additional refining capacity coming soon could help hold down prices. Reliance Industries in India is adding a 580,000-barrel-per-day refinery, bigger than the biggest U.S. refinery, as soon as a year from now. Reliance says the new unit is specifically meant to produce fuels for export and should have low costs because it can handle less costly low-quality crude oil.
Kloza also cites a 325,000-barrel-per-day expansion by Shell Oil at Port Arthur, Texas.
No talk of further OPEC oil output boost: delegates
Delegates from two OPEC countries in the Middle East said on Tuesday they were not aware of any discussion about boosting the group's output beyond the 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase already in train.
China Daqing oilfield to hold back decline in '07
China's biggest oilfield, Daqing, will produce oil and gas equivalent to some 45 million tonnes of crude in 2007, roughly the same amount as last year, the company's chairman Wang Yupu said on Monday.
Cnooc Aims for Bohai Bay to be China's 2nd Largest Oil Field
Chinese offshore oil producer Cnooc Ltd. (CEO) aims to increase production at Bohai Bay to make it the country's second-largest oil field in terms of output within five years, company officials said.
Putin visits Iran, sends warnings to US
Russian leader Vladimir Putin met his Iranian counterpart Tuesday and implicitly warned the U.S. not to use a former Soviet republic to stage an attack on Iran. He also said nations shouldn't pursue oil pipeline projects in the area if they weren't backed by regional powers.
Chevron-led Russia venture faces challenges: report
An energy development consortium led by U.S. oil producer Chevron Corp. (CVX.N) in Kazakhstan is facing challenges from the Russian government over a pipeline that runs through Russian territory, the Wall Street Journal reported....The Russian government, which holds a 24 percent stake in the venture through its state-owned pipeline monopoly OAO Transneft, has blocked the expansion, arguing that Russia should receive more revenue, the paper said.
Gazpromneft Ups Stake in Chevron JV to 75%
Russia's OAO Gazpromneft, the listed oil-producing subsidiary of OAO Gazprom, Monday said it increased to 75% its stake the joint venture with Chevron's subsidiary Chevron Neftegaz.
Facing the looming energy crisis
It's not rocket science: we are nearing the point of peak oil production, the data suggests, and when that happens, oil will start running out. That's when oil prices will really soar...
The Mogambo Guru: Jobs fight to the death
And another thing that is unbelievable concerning inflation in prices is the mental disconnect about oil. Kevin Capp, in the Rude Awakening newsletter, writes that the latest report from the International Energy Agency shows that Peak Oil is here, we are all freaking doomed, and we should be running down the street screaming our guts out in mortal fear, completely nude if you want, but wearing some good footwear since scuffing up your bare feet would be just adding insult to injury.Although they did not use those words exactly, he reports that the agency did say that, "the global production of liquids dropped by 854,000 barrels per day from August 2006-August 2007".
IT'S FALL 2008.Most outdoor events at the Beijing Olympics were canceled this August due to stifling heat and abysmal air. Populations the world over spilled onto sun-sered streets this summer, escaping baking hovels and failing farms, demanding swift action on climate change. Looking back, it's been a tumultuous year.
Extremes and volatility have become the new norm, as unwieldy winds whipped up over warming seas and lands usher in rapidly shifting fronts.
Brazil's leader calls on Africa to embrace biofuels production
Brazil's President Luiz Ignacio Lula Da Silva called Monday on Africa to join a biofuels "revolution" to democratize access to energy across the continent."Brazil invites Burkina Faso and all of Africa to join the biofuels revolution. With biofuels we can democratize access to energy in Africa," Lula said.
World events work against grain buyers
"We can only (boost prices) so much until the customer sees the pinch," says Richardson, who uses organic ingredients but hasn't touted it in her advertising. That gives her more latitude to switch to conventional flour, which now costs about $10 a bag less than organic, though it's experienced similar price jumps this year. It also means she must rework baking formulas to ensure the product her customers expect and, she says, lower her "laurels on flavor and sustainability."The tightest world grain stocks in about 30 years are contributing to rising food inflation, fueling worries about food shortages in some countries and straining international aid budgets. Russia recently imposed taxes on barley and grain exports to control domestic food prices before pending presidential elections.
Virgin Atlantic 747 to test biofuel in early 2008
British billionaire Richard Branson said on Monday his Virgin Group hopes to produce clean biofuels by around the start of the next decade and early next year will test a jet plane on renewable fuel.Virgin hopes to provide clean fuel for buses, trains and cars within three or four years, Branson told a Mortgage Bankers Association meeting in Boston.
Monsanto increases investment in Mendel
Monsanto Co said on Monday that it had increased its investment in Mendel Biotechnology Inc in a deal that will boost the privately held company's work in cellulosic biofuels like grasses and food crop waste.
Whether you think global warming is a hoax or an impending catastrophe, the fact is you do think about it. You have an opinion; you've debated it with friends and family. Maybe you've stopped driving a gas guzzler, dialed back the thermostat or adjusted your lifestyle in countless other ways to save energy.And chances are, that is happening largely because of Al Gore. Whether you peg him as a visionary or a scaremonger, he has introduced the potential dangers of global warming to mainstream America, via his writing, speeches and an Academy Award-winning movie.
All told, livestock are responsible for 18% of greenhouse-gas emissions worldwide, according to the U.N. -- more than all the planes, trains and automobiles on the planet. And it's going to get a lot worse. As living standards rise in the developing world, so does its fondness for meat and dairy. Annual per-capita meat consumption in developing countries doubled from 31 pounds in 1980 to 62 pounds in 2002, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, which expects global meat production to more than double by 2050. That means the environmental damage of ranching would have to be cut in half just to keep emissions at their current, dangerous level.
Austria to host global warming meeting
Innsbruck — home to two Winter Olympics — is hosting a conference on how to cope with the warm winters and lackluster snowfall caused by global warming.Some 400 people from 20 countries are in the Austrian winter sports mecca for three days of discussions on the future of the Alps. Discussions will focus on eight core themes related to mountains, including ecology, natural hazards, health and spatial planning and development.
Kyoto approach on climate is "bad policy": Bush
President George W. Bush said on Monday his administration's approach of emphasizing voluntary approaches to address climate change was working and he denounced Kyoto-style mandatory caps as "bad policy."Bush's comments were the latest sign that his opposition to binding emissions caps remains firmly entrenched, even as he has made efforts to show he wants to be more engaged in the global debate on climate change amid sharp criticism from other countries.
Sorry to be hogging this but i really had to post this.
Emailed Joe Kernen this morning who kept blaming speculators. Really had to vent.
Here was my email to him
To Joe Moronic Kernen,
Please wake up to the reality of peak oil. Stop blaming speculators. You
are misleading your viewers. Here are some f***ing facts you and your
band of merry idiots can check out.
1) The world will use 88 million barrels per day (mbpd)in the 4th
quarter and produce only 84.5 mbpd. Did they teach you demand and supply
at MIT or did you get a degree in brain farts?
2) the total oil controlled by the net long position of speculators can
be found at cftc.gov and is less than a couple of days of world usage at
best. And because it is a commodity it is matched by a net short
position by commericals. If those words challenge your chimp vocabulary
I suggest you take time to acquaint yourself with them.
3)In days of coverage the world oil inventories are at the lowest level
in the last 15 years.
How can you have exposure to the wisdom of Matt Simmons and still
display that high level of completely unjustified arrogance? Your
flippant dealing of the most important issue facing mankind will have
your going down as the Typhoid Mary of this optimistic disease of
wishing upon a star.
Hey you ask Boone pickens for predictions right? Here are a few for you
in his style.
$150 before $200 a barrel
$250 before $500 a barrel
Joe kernen being declared a moron before being declared a complete
idiot.
Hows that?
Here was his reply.
I'll bet you're an academic
Rarely do we get mail from such a pompous blowhard... but when we do
it's usually
from someone that couldn't get a real job
and finally mine back to him
You figured that all by yourself seeing my @edu address or did your co chimps help you?
Dispute one fact written below Joe I dare you.
As for a real job I have an MD and I am working on my PhD.
I truly regret not getting a "real" job like yours but they werent handing our free lobectomies anymore.
LOL
bang bang!
did the shooting already started?
he replied
Ahhh an md!! That’s where the pompousity comes in… also
well known on wall street as the worst investors.. combined with the biggest ego!…
God complex I guess
I’ve seen this movie before.. let me guess.. are you even 30? To
be so sure of things… that passes with age
Next recession oil goes back to 35… hopefully with you’re phd you’ll
stay in the lab and not use your great people skills on actual patient
And my reply,
As expected you did not dispute a single fact posted.
I would send you my tax returns if want to see how much I made in investing but that would be beside the point.
Sure oil will go down in a recession, but from what point? You have had Steve Forbes saying " Oil will go down to $15...little later oil will go down to $20 and now he says $45." His "down" point is higher than what oil was when he started his stupid predictions. The point is not the price , the point is that peak production has been reached. GDP cannot grow without increasing oil consumption. Prices may go down to $60 or $65 but you are hallucinating if you are thinking about $35. World GDP will have to contract by 2-3% to align supply and demand in 2008.
I'll tell you what how about a public bet?
Prices in 2010 ? If it is less than $150 you win. If it is more than $150 I win.
And BTW you are proving my point. You could not invalidate a single point I made and went after my profession. Come on Joe . Show that there is a neuron still hanging on there with its last breath. Dispute the facts.
We're always "adjusting for inflation".
How about adjusting for deflation.
Because if oil drops to $45, a bottle of beer will cost a quarter.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Sure. That ave family health insurance bill of 12 grand is going to drop to 3 grand any day now.
highly Unlikely as I am sure you implied but deflation is possible in such a high debt laden economy. Unlikely poltically but possible.
Fire: You cannot have deflation in all sectors of the economy as many sectors are not competitive (free market). Will surgeons currently charging $600 thou drop their price to $200 thou? Are insurance companies planning to slash rates? Is Goldman planning to slash their fees by 2/3 is some looming price war for business? How likely is is that your local government is planning to slash your property tax mill rate by 2/3 in some sort of "deflationary" environment? More likely that as property values fall, they will increase the mill rate to hold their revenue together. For all the free market BS, huge portions of the USA economy are anything but which makes deflation more difficult to achieve.
Again you illustrate beautifully deflation's affect.
How about a definition of deflation.
"Money disappears faster than it can be created."
See Housing Price Collapse $1.2 Trillion
and $45 Trillion in SIV Derivatives for details.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
I agree. Totally unlikely but I still maintain its possible. If we had someone at the fed acknowledge that inflation was running at 7% and he raised interest rates to 12% we would wipe out a lot of wealth to the point where surgeons and insurance companies will have to lower prices. Maybe not as much as your example but they would have to lower rates.
Surgeons very well could slash their fees by 2/3rds if all of a sudden no one has the money for surgery.
I would say it's very unlikely, but possible.
Garth
GGG: Both Hillary and the musclehead leading California have proposed taxpayers funding health insurance for those who cannot afford it-so you are right, it is very unlikely.
Health Care will increase, just like Oil Discovery/Production.
That doesn't preclude deflation.
Like oil (just like oil AAMOF) the poorest will drop out.
And an ever smaller circle will contain the last of the Empire's Citizens/EC.
How do you know if you've made the cut and are still
an EC?
You can afford Health Care/Insurance.
Asimov's Foundation keeps intruding/coming to mind here. ;}
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Doesn't it? :)
Sounds like I'd better find Asimov's Foundation and read it.
Around here, the retired ppl have health insurance etc., but anyone under 50, fuhgeddabouddit.
As for car insurance etc. I'll just state that in this land of plentiful goathead weeds, lethal to bike tires and even thin car tires, there are an awful lot of people biking on old beaters, walking, and hitchhiking.
The basic trappings of being an Empire Citizen, such as car ownership, house ownership, health care, dental care, even in many cases adequate nutrition, are only enjoyed by a smaller and smaller group, and most of that group old and obtained those trappings 20 or more years ago and have been coasting ever since.
Read the Original Foundation book - then one written in the 1940's
i know
i have been thinking this for some time - those books i read so long ago but were so memorable for me... it's funny going back and seeing how simplistic and unsophisticated Asimov's writing style is (you don't notice that reading them in early teens) yet how rich and prescient his ideas are
i certainly think a smart lifeboat strategy based on a Foundation approach is going to be the end result - either planned or not... it won't be two either - it'll be a whole bunch of them... but a set of common rules and principles will align lifeboats loosely for a post fall world...
but i don't think it is just waiting out the die off - it is also waiting out the hunker down with guns hoarding brigade... the Bush to Paraguay lot - they'll survive a while in an unsustainable way by hoarding lots and running small manageable fascist-run enclaves... but ultimately they'll run out of hoards and stockpiles... all the time fantasizing about how they are surviving with enough guns to take over the world again
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
Given all this talk about Foundation I've not read them in maybe twenty five years, so I walked to the local library. No Foundation, but Prelude to Foundation was there, so I've started ...
prelude to foundation is like Star Wars episodes i-iii i.e. written after the original
but definitely read them - the core three books are the best and the original story arc, but there is then a periphery of additional foundation books that are secondary
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
Hello Fleam,
Suggestion: I think your time could be better spent by using an advanced google search of my numerous Foundation postings of predictive collapse and directed decline for optimal paradigm shifting. Use TheOilDrum.com as a limiting website constraint. For broader search strategies, if you analyze the found text with a Peak Everything mindset: there are also excellent web summaries of Asimov's Foundation and Wikilinks to help quickly ramp up your understanding of optimal decline.
I am certainly not an expert on this subject, but I hope TODers can really help add more expertise and analysis over time. Now if we could only get a huge supercomputing cluster to further flog the data-dog.....
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob,
You're back! I tried to email you but it bounced back. I thought maybe Dick Cheney had dispatched a UAV predator drone to your neck of Asphaltistan.
Hello The Chimp Who Can Drive,
Yep--Just got my old computer and big screen resusitated back onto the WWW. I was tired of borrowing someone else's laptop and connection because the dinky screen was a PITA to read.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
"Now if we could only get a huge supercomputing cluster..."
Bob, IMHO this site is the biocomputer from "Hitchhiker's Guide"; you're participating in reaching the conclusions.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
Yup - I wonder if we have a Salvor Hardin busy being born right now....
Good point. Like steve forbes always keeps saying that the fed needs to get Gold under $400. If they did that NAsdaq would be below a 1000.
Deleted
Well, at least you were polite... ;^)
I've met more than one doctor whose idea of a business letter starts like this:
Dear Mr. So and So:
You damned son of a bitch. Strongly worded letter to follow.
Heard it FIRST this morning. On CNBC !!!
As Oil hit $87 they Joe asked a guest why prices are so high, and the guy said,.... Blah blah, and you have to give some credence to the Peak Oil Theory.... blah blah.
I almost spit out my coffee.... Got to work and a person who I recently just informed and also just lent EndOfSububia to came up to me and said.. Did you hear CNBC this morning??
PEAK OIL on CNBC as a Reason for High Oil Prices
That is a watershed. Only a matter of time until one of the (corporate backed) presidential candiadates mentions it.
It can't be mentioned on the MSM.
PANIC is the word.
And we're at MOL.
If everyone fills up their tank at the same time the system will go down.
But there will be a Greatest Event happening.
Whether it's Socio Economic, Military, or "Natural",
something is slouching this way.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
That reminds me, I'd better fill up on the way home tonight.
;-)
Gasoline in eastern Ontario is the cheapest it's been in months, about 0.82 CDN/litre today.
Gas in the metro Boston area is @ $2.59/gallon at the cheaper stations.
There's a disconnect between the price of oil and the price of gas. I wish I could figure it out - there's gotta be a way to arbitrage that difference and make some money.
G
Five gallon gas cans are $5 - $8 depending on where you purchase them.
1 gallon gas cans started appearing in the 7-11s here a couple months ago. Never seen that before.
They're common at interstate stations - for those who run out of gas a few miles either side of the station. That'll become a more common ritual as supplies get tight.
Hello Ggg71,
I would much prefer my earlier proposal of Hell's Angels Gas-stations versus the extreme fire hazard and/or brutal home invasion potential of storing gas in containers on housing property. Then, I could easily lockup 500 gallons of gasoline to store for personal price arbitrage and/or profitable localized selling, or have for my later use in an emergency.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob,
I have no intention of stockpiling 40 gallon drums of gasoline in my basement. I was looking for some sort of market arbitrage.
Cheers,
G
Well, if we are at Peak, then arguably we will have excess refining capacity going forward: too many refineries, not enough oil. Didn't the recent stats show gasoline consumption declining marginally in the US over the past 12 months? Excess capacity will cut margins to the bone, maybe even cause refiners to operate at a loss until they start going under one by one.
Is anything left of the crack?
I almost wrote something like this in my post... But I'm not really sure how it plays out...
The refiners are constrained by the amount of crude they can get (assume the amount they can get is less then their capacity)... We are basically at MOL (Minimum operating levels) ... So shouldn't the gas stations and distributers be bidding up the gas price and INCREASING the crack spread?
Garth
That's an image I can do without.
I've only recently started reading TOD and am not yet well versed in a lot of matters pertaining to oil so please forgive if I ask some rather basic questions ... but I was listening to Marketplace (on an NPR station) this evening .... they were discussing the oil price increases and underlying reasons. One item mentioned was that the government (Defense Dept) is daily siphoning off about 100,000 barrels of the highest grade oil into the strategic reserves.
Could it be the reserves are being built up in preparation for some event? Or is this normal?
Ishtar
Ishtar,
We have something called the strategic petroleum reserve and its quite a bit of oil - about seven hundred million barrels. There is very detailed information on U.S. petroleum use posted here periodically - it used to be in something called This Week In Petroleum but I don't see one of those over the last several weeks. I'd normally remain silent but you're here late in the day as well as late in the thread and I didn't want your question to go begging.
http://www.spr.doe.gov/
-SCT
Note that the CNBC guys had no response to the Peak Oil comment. If you discuss it, you have to acknowledge it. But they have Boone on for an hour tomorrow. Should be interesting.
I'm watching Operation TopOff. And Turkey.
Remember Rumsfeld acknowledging $2.3 Trillion
had disappeared from the Pentagon/DoD on 091001.
And look over to the left of this site and see Pelosi.
John Stewart says to Snow last nite (A Comedy Satire)
that they're spineless. Snow laughs and does not disagree.
But Pelosi is pushing the Armenian Genocide Bill
which could start the Meltdown of the ME.
Soemthing happening there.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Pelosi's recent comments have to be some of the most irresponsible comments ever made by any public official (at least since Bush/Cheney got us into Iraq in the first place).
By making any Turkish opponents of an incursion appear to be American puppets, she all but assured a Turkish incursion into Iraq. I suspect that the Turks feel that it is a point of national honor now. I would not be surprised to see the Kurdish fighters blow up the oil pipelines leading into Turkey.
Exactly. And she had to know.
Why the Display of Bravado all of a sudden.
FDR-“In politics, nothing happens by accident. ...
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Per Juan Cole, Turkey's beef with U.S. policy goes beyond the Armenian genocide resolution. See http://www.juancole.com/2007/10/who-lost-turkey.html
Many ironies of this 'Genocide resolution' and the threat of Turkey to invade Iraq to kick Kurdish butt. As I understand the history of the Armenian genocide, the Turks used Kurds as henchmen in the grisly process.
It's all insanity. I totally disagree with the FDR comment
“In politics, nothing happens by accident"
I would say that in politics decisions are made for the stupidest reasons and then the consequences are beyond what anyone could possibly anticipate.
Insanity rules.
i'd modify your statement to:
...the consequences are exactly what a rational thinking person would expect, but beyond what any politician seems able to anticipate
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
I've been trying to think of any sensible reason for this quite deliberate act to antagonize Turkey.
The only thing I've been able to come up with is: the US (not just Congress) wants Turkey to invade Iraq/Kurdistan. This will provide some serious propaganda to encourage the Turkish parliament to approve military action.
The only reasons that I can think of for wanting Turkey to invade Iraq is that it a) stabilizes the PKK situation, so that the Turkish military is free to act and b) it places more Turkish troops along the Iran border (there are Kurds in Iran also, so it might provide a pretext for an incursion). When the fireworks start in Iran, many of the boots on the ground may be Turkish.
Either that, or quagmires are so much fun that Turkey wants one of its own...
Good Analysis:
But Israel is trying to squelch this.
And 4GW can be applied to Turkey as well as anybody else.
But once "We" attack Iran, we won't be worrying about what Turkish Troops are doing. IMHO
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Or perhaps the reality of Peak Oil will soon be blindingly obvious without another war in the ME? Just a horrible thought. I mean, what if most people will never hear about PO, they will just think that everything is going to the dogs because of Muslims who hate us because we're free?
George Ure's (Urban Survival) take on the issue:
Drudge Report headline: Putin Visits Iran, Sends Warning to US
I guess it's appropriate that we are talking about actions by the Ottoman Empire in the First World War. As we discussed last year, this whole thing has a certain "Guns of August" feeling to it.
This whole recent Turkey/Armenian genocide flap continues to be a mystery to me.
It is no secret that there are many affluent and influential Armenians in California who have for decades been calling for resolutions condemning Turkey for its WW I slaughter of its Armenian population. This is nothing surprising or new. But what is surprising and new is for this issue to be coming to the fore at this particularly delicate period in US/Turkish relations. Thus, the question that begs to be answered is: Why now?
I can come up with only one conjecture, albeit a somewhat dubious one. And that is: to ensure their clean sweep in the 2008 elections the Democrats feel they need i) to keep their hands off any direct Iraq policy so that it is unmistakably clear that Iraq is Bush's war and not theirs, and ii) to have the situation in Iraq not only not improve but to actually get worse.
Having relations with Turkey deteriorate to the point where they deny the US logistical support for the ongoing Iraq occupation would certainly make the US position worse, which would work toward reason ii above.
Admittedly, this is reach, but I'm at a lose to come up with anything else.
I'm at a lose to come up with anything else.
How about just more chaos via armed violence? Such has to be profitable for someone, no?
Yes, there are some interesting theories in this thread, but I'm still not seeing an explanation that "feels" like it fits. It is clear to me that there is something driving this, but I just don't see it yet. Who is pushing Turkey to do what, and why?
Ya...I started wondering more about this. Turkey fighting Kurds could theoretically draw the Iranians further into Iraq. Perhaps, BushCo is looking for an event like this for their own purposes.
AIPAC wants war with Iran, US generals object.
Pelosi and most everyone in CONgress as well as the Neocons are fully owned subsidiaries of AIPAC.
So? they piss the Turks off and Iraq supply lines are cut from the N, supply lines from the S are real long, either Sunni irregulars cut them off or the pols pretend that they do.
They sell US troops in Iraq down the river and have their case to attack Iran, the generals are boxed in and have to reluctantly go along with it.
Right now the pol crowd are jacking off in a love triangle with AQ and the Sunni's while the Kurds in the N and the Sunni's in the S control
the oilour oil.Why would they all of a sudden give a sh*t about Armenians when no one heard from them in 30 years?
The British have 5,000 troops in the relatively quiet South of Iraq, but they're withdrawing half of them very shortly. That is purely Iranian territory waiting to happen as its all Shi'a.
I believe only four U.S. soldiers have been killed in the area that ought to be Kurdistan, were there any justice in the world. Losing access to this due to a Turk vs. Kurd shootout coupled with the British drawn down pretty much means we have an instant replay of the Battle of Chosin Reservoir, where our troops are going to have to take the port they need to escape, most likely driving south under cover of the carrier based aircraft in the region.
The political game being played is a backdoor ploy to force the US out of Iraq by making our position there untenable. Make Turkey so mad at us that they shut down Incirlik and deny overflight rights. Being unable to resupply, we are left with no alternative but to withdraw. Or that's the thinking, anyway.
Pissing off the Turks also ties the US/Israli's hands on Iran. We need the Turks for bases, logistics and overflights for a real fight with Iran. The Armenian genocide resolution pushes the Turks towards an alliance with Iran to fight the PKK, which has an Iranian chapter that is allegedly recieving support from the US.
If that's the plan, it may be brilliant. Turkey torching a corner of Kurdistan is less a threat to world peace than the US torching Iran. If the Turks leave NATO and go nuclear, not so much.
Make the pie higher.
It would be brilliant, but I can't believe the admin would be that smart.
It's not the administration taking these actions; it's the opposition party.
canpro -
By George, I think you might have it!
This may indeed be a very devious way for the Democrats to greatly compromise the Bush regime's ability to attack Iran. Without Incirlik or the ability to use Turkey for overflights and logisical support, and attack on Iran becomes much more risky.
While the US would still maintain total air superiority, the possibilities of what could happen when Iran retaliates the 'day after' even a very successful air attack become much more ugly if we have an antagonist rather than a friend on Iraq's northern flank.
Then if you throw in the possibility of a nascent Turkish-Iranian-Russian loose alliance, the potential for things to go very bad for the US vastly increases.
This whole thing is like a four-dimensional chess game, the outcome of which is completely indeterminate at this point. The only thing I'm willing to predict is that it's not going to have a happy ending.
It's the other way around, Israel doesn't want 4GW warfare in Iran. They want Iran off the map and unable to come back because US protection will evaporate with PO and Fed bubble bursts.
They don't give a sh*t what the cost to US is.
Now why would Turkey allow the US and Israel to use their bases for an attack on Iran. Other than in Oceania, Iran is not considred a threat, and to the Turks is a friend. They didn't allow the use of their bases in the attack on Iraq, so why now on Iran, considering that it is even more transparently unjustified?
You guys need to get a life and stop fantasizing about world events, and motives.
-
James Gervais
Good points.
The question remains why now for Pelosi's resolution. Say what you will, politically she's smart. Couldn't get to where she is on a 2 yr election rotation without it. She had to know the consequences of the action, and that the resolution has been floundering for decades.
I don't buy Armenian political favors. She was either forced to advance the resolution, or backed into the corner of a pulled bluff and had to make her threat. The dems have been so weak and ineffectual since taking Congress that it wouldn't surprise me that all they have for a threat is the resolution.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.BOwN8qGGXE&refer=h...
That'll show those darned Americans! How dare they bring up Armenia!
...which would come in darned handy in any invasion of Iran. I'm just sayin'...
I'm glad to see that so many others here find the congressional machinations over the Armenian-genocide resolution as fascinating as I do. The many theories posited here seem credible, so doesn't Occam's Razor require that they must ALL be true? To some extent, at least:
Chaos as a cover for PO, and continued US occupation.
Demos making the war go even worse, if that's possible.
Trigger for the Khuzestan invasion.
Is it a coincidence that Putin is in Iran today, warning the former Soviet states against cooperating with an invasion of Iran?
On the other hand, Clinton begged his Congress to not pass a similar Armenian-genocide resolution during his tenure, barely prevailing. Maybe this is just evidence of a fatally weakened lame-duck administration that poses no credible threat to anybody anymore.
Barring another 9/11, of course.
Yes, indeed...
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
The role of ‘recognition’ of the Armenian ‘genocide’ (the commas not because genocide didn’t happen but because the term is fraught with legal and other implications, as is the status of ‘recognition’...) is perhaps not terribly relevant.
What are the diaspora and other Armenians wanting to accomplish? What has changed in their relations with countries that did? - see link, which shows amongst others that US ‘recognition’ is not new. France made such a resolution, and subsequently economic exchanges rose (I have read..) One can guess that demands for reparations and maybe even territory will follow eventually. (?)
In Switzerland, you can be locked up for denying the Holocaust, or the Armenian ‘genocide’ for that matter (even though the Federal Council has NOT recognized it, contrary to what one can read all over, as in the linked site. The last two cases about the Armenian genocide were found in favor of the complainants as the judges based themselves on ‘what is generally known’ and not on official recognition. All that is not an issue in the US, but it is in Europe.) In Turkey, locked up for affirming another genocide. It is nuts, global identity politics gone haywire.. See the Jurist link, one pov.
Karekin II the Supreme Patriarch lead the prayers in the House on Wed 10 oct, at the invite of Pelosi I read. (??) My goodness!
The ADL changed its policy on this matter very recently - the Israelis seem divided... The White House, realist Republicans and Turkish leadership are disappointed: don’t want to offend an ally (Iraq, air fields, arms sales, etc. etc.) -- for the Turks, break ties with a powerful patron.
Turks are now seeing all this as a US-Israeli plot - from a quick look at Turkish press and the ranting of a neighbor! So the Turks are furious, how long will that fury last? Not long I should think.
Some things just happen. They have a momentum of their own, in the sense that there are many different motives.
Of course one can interpet here a plot to undermine the US role (to put it very gently!) in Iraq - the breaking or weakening of relations with Turkey; or, conversely, see it as an underground plot to accelerate the break up of Iraq into powerless statelets (a la Yugoslavia) and strife, which in the eyes of some was the US/Israel aim all along.
It looks very much like an easy symbolic win for the Democrats; a sharp inroad, as well, on Israeli/Jewish control of the ‘genocide’ label. Maybe those are the most important aspects.
armenian site, on recognition of...
jurist
The US could destroy the Turkish invasion over a period of several days by using it's overwhelming technological lead.
Will it?
The only reason the Iraqi resistance has been able to avoid defeat is that they can hide in the Iraqi population. Turkish troops can't hide in the Kurdish population. The idea that they could defeat the American armed forces is simply ridiculous. Nor could they defeat the Kurdish forces after the Americans peel off the Turkish air force, the Turkish armor, and the Turkish logistical support.
So will the US defend Iraq against Turkey? Will it defend Iraq against Iran? India? Pakistan? Russia? China?
When has one NATO member attacked another? This is the only bulwark against the reforming Russian empire in Europe and we can less afford to harm that than we could afford an adventure in Iraq.
The Turks attacking the Kurds is not a simple walk in the park for them - the Kurdish peshmerga(literal: those who face death) will grind them just like the Iraqis are grinding our troops and Turkey has a Kurdish population to consider. This would be the equivalent of the U.S. attacking Mexico, only the nicest Kurdish lil' ol' lady is about as tough as your average Mexican Mara Salvatrucha member.
I worked with some Kurds when I was in college and they told me terrible things about the Iraqi government. I hope those guys play their cards right and end up with another powerful ally in the region after the United States is spent. If ever a people deserved close air support it is them.
Actually, if the Turks were smarter than the current US administration (not much of a stretch!), then what they would do is claim that they are under attack from Iraqi Kurdistan, and invoke the NATO treaty to demand that all members, including the US, come to their defense.
THAT would sure put the US between a rock and a hard place! (Or maybe I should say, between Iraq & a hard place!)
And they'd have to declare the peshmerga to be terrorists, just like we've done with the Revolutionary Guard in Iran.
The Bush administration's behavior is often too stupid for words ...
I think you're advancing your premises with a little too much confidence. Granted 2007 is not 1917, but Turks stunned Allies at Gallipoli. US military is arguably currently overstretched and exhausted. Kurdistan is not Kuwait.
I suspect that the third and final domino that was described in the run-up to the war is about to fall - the Turkish attempt to grab the Northern Iraq oil fields; I doubt that it has anything to do with the Senate resolution - it's an oil grab.
The most likely answer to 'Why now?' is that Pelosi needs funding and votes for her coming re-election campaign and is looking to appease her Armenian constituents.
-
James Gervais
Hello Mcgowanmc,
Regarding Operation Topoff: perhaps we should start an email suggestion campaign to David Letterman and Jay Le