DrumBeat: December 19, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 19, 2007 - 1:39pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
One in Five Expect to Borrow to Heat Homes This Winter
For perhaps as many as 27 million American adults, keeping warm this winter will mean borrowing money and 20 million will use credit cards to be able to afford their heating bills, according to a CreditCards.com poll.Nearly 12 percent of Americans say they will need to borrow money to pay winter heating bills; 9 percent will need to use credit cards to be able to afford their heating bills. The poll, commissioned by CreditCards.com and conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media, surveyed 1,004 randomly selected American adults by telephone Dec. 7-9, 2007 to gauge their attitudes about energy costs in 2008. A majority say they expect oil and gasoline prices to get worse in 2008.
57 mpg? That's so 20 years ago
Car makers are confident they can meet new government rules calling for a national fleet average of 35 miles per gallon. But it will take a big technological push, they say.You might wonder why, since twenty years ago the car that got the best mileage in the nation was a real techno-wimp compared to what's on the road today. It wasn't even a hybrid. But it got better fuel economy than any car sold now - even the Toyota Prius.
Alaska oil spill may signal wider problems-state
Alaska officials are investigating the cause of a pipeline rupture on the North Slope earlier this week that they say could be a sign of more widespread corrosion problems at the state's aging fields.The 4,284-gallon spill from the ConocoPhillips line on the Kuparuk field was caused by rare rust on the outside of the pipe beneath a layer of insulation, according to preliminary findings by the company and the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation.
BP delays crude unit restart at Texas City
BP has delayed the restart of a crude unit at its Texas City, Texas, refinery by about a month until mid-February, trade sources said on Wednesday.The refinery, which was shut ahead of Hurricane Rita in September 2005, has a nameplate capacity of 460,000 barrels per day.
A second jury lost a chance to render a verdict in a trial stemming from the deadly 2005 explosion at BP's Texas City refinery when a civil trial ended early Tuesday with a settlement.
Food and Fuel Compete for Land
For years, cheap food and feed were taken for granted in the United States.But now the price of some foods is rising sharply, and from the corridors of Washington to the aisles of neighborhood supermarkets, a blame alert is under way.
Analysis: Venezuela helps Cuban refinery
A Soviet-era oil refinery in Cuba is getting back online with the help of the communist island's close regional ally and petroleum benefactor, Venezuela.
China's crude oil output to reach 186 million tons in 2007
China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA) forecast on Wednesday that the country's crude oil output would reach 186 million tons in 2007, up 1.5 percent year-on-year.
Nevada study group pushing for private toll roads
Advocates for privatization say the tool is a good option in the state because of the shortage of funds available to build the roads needed. They cite rising costs for construction materials, including asphalt. Also, the governor is opposed to increasing taxes to pay for such projects.
Nepal: Want petrol? Buy bonds first
The government is planning to issue bonds to raise funds to pay off the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and sort out the long-running shortage of gasoline in the market.
Some gas stations in Toronto area run out of fuel: weekend storm partly to blame (Gasoline-Shortage)
Some out-of-gas signs have been appearing at service stations in the Toronto area, while others have stopped selling regular gas.Liberal MP Dan McTeague, a longtime monitor of gas prices, says the weekend snow storm is party to blame for some of the shortages.
He says another factor could be that refiners have to increase their ethanol content to 10 per cent by the end of the year.
Energy crisis just as bad now as it was three decades ago
I came across a speech today by the president of the United States. I found this portion of his speech to be particularly interesting:"In little more than two decades, we've gone from a position of energy independence to one in which almost half the oil we use comes from foreign countries, at prices that are going through the roof. Our excessive dependence on OPEC has already taken a tremendous toll on our economy and our people. This is the direct cause of the long lines which have made millions of you spend aggravating hours waiting for gasoline. It's a cause of the increased inflation and unemployment that we now face. This intolerable dependence on foreign oil threatens our economic independence and the very security of our nation."
Jimmy Carter gave this speech on July 15, 1979.
Illinois lands clean-coal plant, but White House warns of rising costs
Illinois won a battle with Texas on Tuesday for a showcase clean-coal research project, but within hours the Bush administration waved a caution flag about rising costs and said it wasn't ready to sign off on the $1.8 billion FutureGen power plant.
Mexico, US Suffer as Rio Grande Sucked Dry
Springs across southern Texas have run dry as aquifers are pumped for water. Most could be exhausted within two decades.Historically, the Rio Grande, the fifth-longest river in the United States, flowed continuously from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico. But since the 1900s, dams, channelization and overexploitation have endangered its survival.
The Last Empire: China's Pollution Problem Goes Global
Can the world survive China's headlong rush to emulate the American way of life?
Hansen points out something I didn't know. Per head of its current population, the UK is responsible for more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than any other nation.How come? After all, our current per-capita emissions are only half those in the US, Canada and some of the more profligate Gulf states – and about level with Germany, Japan and Russia.
The trouble is that us Brits – whose dogged desire to mine coal and burn it to power dark satanic mills kick-started the Industrial Revolution over 200 years ago – have been at the business of filling the atmosphere with CO2 longer than anyone else. And, as we have all been told countless times, once the dreaded greenhouse gas gets into the air, it sticks around – often for centuries.
Bali climate deal marks a geopolitical shift
Developing countries flexed their muscles in unprecedented ways at the climate talks, suggesting the old north-south power equation is changing.
Can We Use Wood to Beat the Gasoline Shortage?
Under ordinary driving conditions, wood is added to the gas producer every 50 to 60 miles. Hardwood, cut into chips less than 4" in length to prevent arching or pocketing in the generator, is used in preference to softwood such as pine because it leaves fewer tars and gummy residues. Even so, the cooling tanks and filters on the vehicle must be cleaned every 900 miles, and motor overhauls are in order every 5,000 to 8,000 miles.
Energy bill to save 'billions'
"If you drive a car or if you use a toaster or heat your home, this bill is going to save you money," says Brendan Bell, Washington representative of the Union of Concerned Scientists. The environmental lobbying group estimates the vehicle fuel economy changes will save consumers $22 billion a year starting in 2020. In the home, the energy efficiency provisions could save $400 billion in electricity and gas bills by 2030, the group says."This is billions and billions of dollars for consumers," Bell says.
Is Chevron a savvy market player picking up assets in a long-term oil boom, or are they a loose cannon overpaying at the top?Here in the Taipan HQ, high on the second floor of the 808 building, there is a constant debate as to whether the market is at the top of the oil cycle, or are we using up the last of our precious hydrocarbons in a peak-oil frenzy of waste.
Oilfield Hacks and Future Oil Prices
While a cult of Peak Oil adherents fret about the end of the hydrocarbon age, we’ve been focusing on trends that will provide buffering to the upcoming declines in oil production. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Peak Oil won’t happen. However, the dreaded peak may turn into a downward sloping plateau supported by higher prices. This high price plateau should buy the planet enough time to start thinking about conservation and using alternate energy sources.
New Zealand: Oil reserves secure for 2008
New Zealand has secured contracts for additional oil reserves in Australia, Japan and the Netherlands for 2008, the Ministry of Economic Development announced today.Secured through a global tender, the contracts ensure that New Zealand is able to meet its obligations as a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA). One of the main obligations of membership is to hold minimum oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of the previous year’s net imports.
Cashing In on the Global Economic Boom
Global oil supply is an increasing important issue, he said, but he and fellow co-manager Evan Smith said they are “agnostic” about the idea of peak oil.“We think the real issue is access to proven reserves,” Hicks said. “We think that’s the major restraint in respect to bringing about more oil supply.”
But the tight market - compounded by the possibility that OPEC could reduce output - is bullish for crude, especially since global emerging market demand will likely offset lower consumption in developed countries.
“Production is going to be capped at around 85 million barrels a day,” according to Hicks. “We’re still very constructive going forward.”
Newt Gingrich explains why red staters must turn green
Newt Gingrich, the fierce and incendiary conservative speaker of the US House of Representatives in the 1990s, has co-written a small book that aims to gently coax his fellow conservatives into the environmental camp. It's OK to be green, argues Gingrich and his coauthor, Terry L. Maple, a former president and CEO of Zoo Atlanta and professor of conservation at Georgia Tech University.
Time magazine Person of the Year 2007: A Tsar Is Born
Although few Russians seem to think Putin himself is corrupt, it is commonly believed that he is surrounded by business and political heavies who are amassing millions in payoffs. Indeed, if anything can bring him down, it may well be graft. As long as living standards rise, people are more likely to forgive the perception that officials are getting obscenely rich by demanding illicit payoffs. But if the economy stops growing—if the price of oil falls back to earth—Putin will face a challenge, whether from the masses in the streets or from military and civilian challengers.
Where have all the oil optimists gone
There used to be a group of happy-go-lucky folks who thought the price of oil was always on the verge of collapsing.Steve Forbes seemed to be their chief. He preached that the benefits of exploration would soon kick in, that all the peak oilers were nutty, and that the return of $35 a barrel was just a matter of time.
Now those voices have quieted down a bit (maybe even a lot). So why the chastening? Perhaps it's because we've had some genuinely big discovery news in recent months, and crude oil has stayed expensive anyway.
Michael Lynch: A Hard Rain is Gonna Fall on Oil Prices (Probably)
Since I am renowned (perhaps infamous) as an oil market bear, it is somewhat daunting to write about next year’s price declining when everyone is now waiting for $100 oil. In the past few years, my price forecasts have been undone (in my opinion) by events ranging from Katrina to the ethnic unrest in Nigeria.At the same time, it is hard to credit the argument that the oil market has experienced a “paradigm shift” in which oil is harder to discover and produce than before, demand is growing much faster, and prices have little effect on demand. Many argue that non-OPEC has peaked, or is near it, and that OPEC’s market share will grow rapidly from now on, so that even if so-called “peak oil” is not here, ever higher prices will be. Thus, many forecasts put long-term prices at or above $60, but it is worth remembering that only three years ago most predicted much lower prices.
Michael J. Economides - $100 Oil: It’s a New Beginning
In August 2004 when oil was about $40 per barrel, I predicted outrageously in an op-ed piece that oil would hit “$60 by next winter.” The newspaper editor changed that to $50, saying it was to “protect my reputation.” Well, oil didn’t stop at $60 – just two months ago it hit $80. With the toothpaste out of the tube the market became desensitized, and there’s really no end in sight.
Could OPEC drop dollar for euro?
Could oil producing countries drop the dollar for a more stable currency? Iran's recent announcement that it would stop using the dollar in its oil transactions made that question a plausible scenario for other oil producers to follow with a weakening US economy and a declining dollar. The depreciating US currency worries oil exporting countries as it means a reduction in the value of their dollar reserves and a loss in revenues with the spiraling oil prices. So could Iran's decision signal a trend for other oil producing countries to follow?
China starts first national oil reserve base
China said Wednesday its first national oil reserve base has been filled with crude oil, one day after it announced the setting up of a national oil reserve center.Located in Zhenhai, Zhejiang Province, east China, the base has a planned storage space of 5.2 million cubic meters, said the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency.
China proposes 10 pct tax on crude, urges fuel tax
China's Finance Ministry said on Tuesday it has proposed introducing a 10 percent tax on crude oil production, which would be phased in at a 5 percent rate initially.This tax would help compensate local governments for the extraction of crude oil and would benefit the environment, Vice Minister Zhu Zhigang said in a statement published on the ministry's Web site www.mof.gov.cn.
Part II: The Price of Biofuels
Despite years of research and recent investment in scaling up production processes, no commercial facility yet makes cellulosic ethanol. The economic explanation is simple: it costs far too much to build such a facility. Cellulose, a long-chain polysaccharide that makes up much of the mass of woody plants and crop residues such as cornstalks, is difficult - and thus expensive - to break down.
Energy bill a boon for ethanol, and a challenge
By mandating a boom in ethanol output from sources other than corn, the energy bill President Bush is expected to sign presents a huge opportunity for the fledgling biofuels market — and considerable uncertainty.The commercial viability of making ethanol from grasses and agricultural waste is unproven, and if industry can’t meet the challenge, consumers could end up paying the price.
Thirsting for answers in dry Georgia
The sharply contrasting ways that normally rainy metropolitan Atlanta and semi-arid San Diego County have dealt with growth and water consumption are an instructive tale that might offer clues to Georgia legislators as they try again in January to divvy up the region's precarious water supply.
UK family visits hit by petrol price rises
Family reunions in the UK could be hit by fuel-price fears this Christmas, a leading motoring organization said here Wednesday.With average petrol prices now at more than one pound a litre, 58 percent of drivers say they are less likely to travel this festive season compared with last year, the Royal Automobile Club (RAC) said.
An international network organisation working in solidarity with the Sahrawi people, Western Sahara Resource Watch, has swiftly reacted to reports that a subsidiary of the Libyan state oil company [Tamoil] is on the verge of investing between US $100 and $150 million in the occupied Western Sahara."If this is true, it would mean a serious betrayal of the Sahrawi people's legitimate struggle against occupation," Western Sahara Resource Watch protested.
Vested interests, not people, oppose clean energy
AMONG the myths of the energy debate is that renewable, non-fossil energy costs more and so is unpopular.Policy dinosaurs like the US government then argue that to represent the people’s wishes they have to reject international standards like those in the Kyoto Protocol. This alienates them from other nations as well as from their own people.
Order DVDs of the 2007 Houston World Oil Conference
DVDs of the ASPO-USA (Association for the Study of Peak Oil - USA) 2007 Houston World Oil Conference can now be ordered. The professionally recorded and edited set of 12 DVDs covers over 20 hours of the conference. All of the main sessions are included along with several of the auxiliary ones including Saturday morning's Smart Money and Peak Oil with Charles Maxwell and others.The presentations have the power points integrated into the DVDs for easy viewing rather than just the camera view. Cost is $85.00 US, including shipping and handling to most countries. Shipping will commence in late December or early January.



A new Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada.
I was about to post a link to this essay. This is the clearest analysis I have yet seen of the mess we are in.
A question to West Texas: Dr. Duncan in his Olduvai Valley theory predicts a "crossover point" when OPEC supplies over 50% of the world's production. He was focused on total production, and not necessarily on what was actually available for export. So, when will OPEC exports represent 50% or more of the world's exportable crude oil?
We are probably about there right now in terms of their share of total net exports, but I think that OPEC as an organization is pretty much irrelevant.
Regarding oil supplies, I suspect that Richard Duncan is actually on the optimistic side, because of the ELM effects. See my post down the thread.
As several people have noted, we appear to be facing a triple play threat next year--Peak Debt; Peak Food and Peak Exports.
Some good thoughts at the end of this article:
Gold/Silver are good, but I would suggest stocking up on food while it's still relatively cheap. You'll need food no matter what, and for now, the grocery stores still don't take gold/silver bullion or coins. With the recent energy bill pushing more ethanol production along with production drops due to weather disruptions such as drought, I think the best place to put my money is in food.
~Durandal(http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
What kinds of food do you suggest stocking up on?
2 categories
'lifeboat' stock - preferably long term storage that you don't use but rotate out when expiration is near. google walton foods .for ex. wheat kernals for instance keeps several years.
buying food in larger supply that you actively use. for instance in stuart's recent thread a couple of
days ago meats are expected to shoot up later in 08. the thread has good comments re suggestions.
I would make sure there's a bunch of
-Grains (Rice, Oats (rolled or cut), Wheat, Millet, Spelt
Wheat, etc)
-Pasta
-Root Vegetables (Beets, Potatoes, Carrots)
-Canned Goods, but watch the dates and rotate stock
-Jars of Sauce, Pickles
-Yeast, Baking Soda
-Jugs of WATER.. very important, very easy to do. ..Very easy to put off for tomorrow. Water supply rarely gives you a day's notice before it shuts down. Always seems to happen 'just a few minutes ago.. do the neighbors have water?'
Basically long-term storage items.. but make sure you create a system for 'Maintenance'.. where you cycle out older foods and eat them up, replacing with new stock.. Otherwise, you'll be wasting a lot of money.
(Put DATES on EVERYTHING. Date Placed in storage, and DATE to REMOVE by..)
We also have a freezer full of beef from a local, grass-fed cow. I have a few ways to keep a freezer cold if we go dark, but it's still one of the more dicey sides of our "IceStorm Preparations"
We keep a couple Camping Stoves handy, too, with a stock of White-Gas for them.
Finally, for electricity, I have about 300watts of Solar and a small about (2kwh) worth of battery storage. We also have a cheap, second-hand 1500w Gas Generator, with a few gallons of fuel onsite. (Can't live on Bread alone..)
Best,
Bob Fiske
One more thing I would add to this:
You're going to have grow at least some of your own food sooner or later, most likely. Might as well make the transition sooner.
Thus, when it comes to canned goods, I'd suggest trying to raise a garden and can as much of your own produce as possible, rather than buying store-bought cans. Once you've made the investment in a canner and mason jars, you will be able to reuse them over and over again (only needing new lids, which would be a good item to stock up on); store-bought cans should be recycled too, but it isn't in a way that benefits you so directly.
While you are ramping up production, and even once you've maxed out if you don't have enough space to grow all your produce, you might consider buying in bulk in season at the farmer's markets, and then canning a big batch. In the past, I've considered it to not be particularly worthwhile to do this, but these are not ordinary times.
You'll also want to garden with open polenated seeds, and get into seed storage (most packets will remain viable for several years if stored properly) if not seed saving. What you want to do is to bring the entire cycle home: seed to garden to produce to preservation to consumption to compost & seed.
Don't use F1 hybrid seeds if you are saving them, They won't grow true to type
I would suggest adding some Textured Vegetable Protein, aka meat extender, and buying it in bulk from a reputable health food store. Whole Foods Market price in Dallas is cheaper than web prices, for instance. If you have spare room in the freezer, store it there, and it will keep virtually forever, as it is made from defatted soy. Try some before you have to use it. It could make you a little gassy, but with meats and with most carbohydrates makes for a reasonably complete protein. It does not have to be stored frozen, but it does make for a long term alternative.
I should add, my own opinion is that after the initial hoarding, we will see some semblance of order return and then we will have a slow decline in availability of necessities. But, just in case....
And, you might add a solar cooking alternative, which can be fun anyway and it takes the heat of cooking outdoors.
Good points.
I'm not a fan of TVP per se (we're only using fermented soy products, like tempeh now), but some form of stored dry protiens, absolutely. Beans, Lentils, Garbonzos etc.. and of course, if you're just trying to survive.. I'm not absolutely fanatical about TVP or tofu or soymilk..
Solar Cooking, definitely!
One of my stockpile items that I rarely pass up when dumpster-diving is any sizable Glass, or Mirror materials.. Another Glass Item that can be invaluable as well is large storage Jars, like the 1 gallon pickle jars from delis. These can store almost any food, not be affected by moisture, acidity, mice, etc..
Bob
You might want to encourage your immediate neighbors to make preparations too. This is the hard part. But if they aren't prepared and you are, you can bet they'll come knocking on your door when trouble hits.
I'm really concerned that answers are being given prior to answering the prime question: What am I preparing for? Is it for a week? A few months? A year? Forever? There are many similar questions that also have to be asked before taking action but TOD isn't the place to go into a disertation on survival. But, FWIW, here is what the LDS Church suggests for two people fo a year (I'm not Mormon BTW but they have some excellent information at http://www.providentliving.org .) I don't agree with every part of their list but that's how it goes.
Group 1: Grains
wheat - 305#
Enriched white flour - 31#
Corn Meal - 57#
Rolled oats - 77#
Enriched white rice - 135#
Pearled barley - 7#
Spaghetti - 67#
Group 2: Legumes
Dry beans - 90#
Dry lima beans - 4#
Dry split peas - 4#
Dry lentils - 4#
Dry soup mix - 14#
Group 3: Fats ans oils
Cooking oil - 10 quarts
Shortening - 4q
Mayonnaise - 2q
Salad dressing (mayo type) - 2q
Peanut butter - 2q
Group 4: Milk Group
Nonfat dry milk - 28#
Evaporated milk - 24 - 12oz cans
Group 5: Sugars
Granulated sugar - 80#
Brown sugar - 6#
Molasses - 2#
Homsy - 6#
Corn syrup - 6#
Jams/preserves - 10#
Powdered fruit drink - 12#
Flavored gelatin - 2#
Group 6: Miscellaneous
Salt - 16#
Dry yeast - 1#
Baking soda - 2#
Baking powder - 2#
Water - 28 gallons (This is one of the items I simply can't believe!)
Personally, I'd suggest buying a copy of Making the Best of Basics. It has lots of lists and ideas.
As far as crops go, I've grown stuff for 40 years and one thing I have learned is that you have to test varieties; you can't trust the blurb in the catalog. During this time we have probably tested 30 varieties of tomatoes, 18 of sweet corn, 6 of field corn, 12 of canteloupe, 12 of water melons, etc. People who simply buy a pack of seed and expect to see a miracle are likely to be disapointed.
That's enough for now or I'll turn this into a survival forum.
Todd
#1 is sort of undifferentiated grey goo.
Since the US will monetize the US debt through inflation, if you pay low-rate debt now you're losing money.
I've looked at paying off the house and I just don't see why - with a 5.25% interest rate 15 year loan.
On the other hand if you have significant credit card debt or other debts at 23% rates you need to get some ramen noodles and maybe credit counseling and pay off the card now.
For people with low-interest rate home loans it seems to me that buying emergency supplies, fixing critical home infrastructure (and insulating/changing to low energy appliances) is a much better way to go. Take the money left over and buy gold.
You'll be better prepared for many outcomes than if you are broke, without supplies, and have no debt.
You can keep paying off your low-rate debts with dollars whose intrinsic value decreases monotonically.
Just a thought.
Pay off the credit card debt first.
But pay off the house ASAP.
You can negotiate with the credit card people.
Get they're best offer and shop it around.
If you have no debt you're wealthier than 80% of
Americans.
Had a thought or two on this also.
I just saw a diminutive watermelon being offered in an urban WalMart for $5. How many of the millions of people around there could grow a watermelon today if their lives depended on it? $5 will look cheap someday soon.
Several here have made a case for deflation. I doubt it. The essentials are food and energy and their value can become almost limitless (like oxygen) dwarfing all other expenses. Really most everything else is discretionary.
Would going into debt for a decent small (talking a few acres with solar, in a good growing area, bikable, with rail close) be warranted?
Otherwise better free up what limited resources one has for responding to the unfolding situation.
Only if you're 110% sure you can keep making the payments. Is your job peak oil proof?
Fixed payments fixed income.
But where does the fixed income come from?
Everyone should ask themselves that question, especially those who feel they are safe.
Prepare for losing at least a large part of your income. Don't think that pensions will save the day when you get to that age. Pension funds are set to become the biggest losers of all as the credit morgana unwinds.
Then, when banks start holding back on loans to businesses, expect many of them to go belly-up, taking jobs down with them. 99% of firms need a rolling credit line to function. And of course customers with spending power.
'Guaranteed' government jobs are very much at risk. All levels of government face a potential triple strike. First, decreasing tax revenue, second, loss of funds that were invested in shady paper, and third, no buyers for the bonds that kept the ship going.
All these things need to be considered when you feel your job and/or income is fixed or guaranteed.
And a lot of local governments, e.g. San Diego, have promised pension payouts to their current and former workers that are far in excess of what can they can actually provide (even at current stock/bond values). And then we have Social Security/Medicare . . .
I suspect that the US government will continue mailing out social security checks for as long as there continues to be a US government. Eventually, one of those checks and twenty five trillion dollars might be enough to buy a cup of coffee.
Certain that nothing is certain.
Present contracts and pensions can evaporate.
Securing land through short term debt perhaps better than paper. Sharecropping, victory gardening, co-operative buys possible.
Unproductive areas and people caught in unproductive situations can be given alternative to taking, vegetating.(WT)
Immigrants worked their way across US under produce or perish, innovate or die, no retreat, no safety net circumstances. (Modern day China) Our immediate future.
Actually, some local governments may not do too badly, at least those without large debt burdens to service and that have at least some property owners still able to pay property taxes. Such local governments will probably find themselves getting into the landlord business in a big way, whether they want to or not. For those property owners not able to pay property taxes (and that may include banks owning foreclosed properties), the local governments will end up holding the properties themselves. At a certain point it will occur to everyone that rather than selling them for pennies and driving local property values down to almost zero, holding on to the properties and renting them out would actually be a better way to go. It would provide the local government with at least some cash flow to make up for the lost property tax revenues, and it would provide what would otherwise be a massive homeless population with housing. This strategy would be a good foundation toward getting a local economy on its feet again.
For towns with a large debt burden however, and without many financially well-off homeowners, forget it. Such local governments probably will go bankrupt.
I've never seen a municipality cut back on spending. In fact, property taxes seem to consistently rise faster than inflation. True of government at all levels, I suppose.
At what point would you envision a municipality actually "getting it" and seriously cutting services? Or will they just raise property taxes higher and higher until everyone is homeless?
You will see it soon. Many municipalities will simply become insolvent.
First to go are many jobs, along with services like road maintenance, schools etc. People will elect to keep the most essential services, drinking water over roads. And they will have to make that choice.
Raising taxes on a population that gets ever poorer is not politically smart, and may get you into far more serious trouble too, certainly if you live in the same town. A popular threat in the Dutch Antilles: 'Ey man, I know where your house lives'.
All levels of government will feel the same tax revenue squeezes, and all will try to raise taxes. Good luck with that as people lose their homes and jobs.
You will see it soon. Many municipalities will simply become insolvent.
That's the base of my reply to people worrying about big brother, police state, etc. I don't know if it will happen. THAT's why Kunstler said "They'll be lucky to be able to answer the phone".
How about fuel for all those nifty helicopters local police have now or squad cars and their gas and maint.
Budget problems just might relegate those things of the past.
We've already seen some of that happen this summer in Central Texas. Had 6 weeks of large summer rains that were really hell on our dirt roads. When the county commissioners were asked about bringing in a few load of gravel to fill in the low spots we were told there was less than $100.00 left in the road fund for the rest of the year, and this was in July! We ain't seen nothing yet as to the breakdown of basic services and community needs given the current financial shenanagins that are going on. John
Tomorrow at 12:00 I go to see a man about a design job - integrating a wireless ISP with city and county services so their stuff can pass transparently. I looked right at him, told him about Florida and the other places, and suggested maybe he not overextend himself. I know the sound waves reached his ears, but I got no sign it made any impression.
I'm breaking the job into four pieces spread out over three months with just a few hours in each increment. I'm grateful for work, but I hate to take his money for something that might evaporate, so we'll go slow and steady. Finding customers is hard for me, so I try to treat 'em nice once I do catch them.
I've asked myself this question, and my job is not POproof at the moment. Shipping however, is likely to persist, and the small company I work for should be able to shift to a more local mode of operations, though not painless.
I feel safe now, but know how fragile this is.
A better idea is to use equity. If you can't pay cash, put a business plan together, and try to get an option to buy or outright buy some land (perhaps with debt at first), and then sell the thing to three people, with each of them paying for one third of the cost of getting the small scale gardening/farming operation up and going, carrying you for 25%. This is a variation on a typical oil deal. The basic premise is that you trade sweat equity for real equity, with no debt in the project.
I freely acknowledge that I know zilch about organic gardening and farming, but I what I think I do know is that we are rapidly headed toward a situation where you have two choices: produce or perish. I guess technically there is a third option that many will pursue: theft.
In any case, small scale food Victory Gardens are certainly possible:
http://www.energybulletin.net/5673.html
Published on 22 Jul 2004 by San Francisco Chronicle. Archived on 25 Apr 2005.
Berkeley: Urban farmers produce nearly all their food with a sustainable garden in their backyard
I got my "PO" Garden and composter going last spring.
I went the raised bed route and successfully grew some of my favorite veggies and some mini-watermelons. They were SOOOooo much better tasting than the store-bought, imported from corp farms stuff.