DrumBeat: December 21, 2007


Forecasters Converging On 100 Million B/D

While predictions by Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie and others that world oil production is facing a limit of 100 million barrels per day or less have received a lot of attention lately, new long-term energy forecasts from major oil companies and government organizations seem to be quietly converging with that stark assessment. While the latest mainstream energy forecasts don't predict a peak or plateau, they do see little more than 100 million b/d of conventional oil output by 2030 -- the end of the forecast period.

2 Million Acres Proposed for Oil Shale

Federal land managers have proposed setting aside nearly 2 million acres of public land in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming for potential commercial oil shale development.

The draft plan released Thursday by the Bureau of Land Management is meant to provide a framework for developing the region's large reserves of oil shale and tar sands. Except for experimental projects, there is no current program for commercial oil shale development on federal land.


Sakhalin Energy postpones LNG exports to Asia

Sakhalin Energy, one of the world's top liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, will delay first exports to Asia by six months to spring 2009 due to problems with pipelines, the governor of Sakhalin said.

The comment confirms a report that the project leader, Russia's Gazprom, and its partner Royal Dutch Shell will effectively delay supplies due to project holdups.

"There will be no LNG supplies next year. They are delayed to spring 2009. Other plants will help meet the customers needs," governor Alexander Khoroshavin said.


Hydrocarbons And Funny Money

Economic trends can always be seen either in terms of materials or in terms of money. One can say that the future will be one of diminishing fossil fuels, and hence diminishing gasoline, plastic, paint, asphalt, fertilizer, and electricity. Or one can say that it will be a period of stagflation: rising prices and falling wages — since rising oil prices "drag up" all other prices. Eventually faith in the dollar will collapse, and money will be replaced by barter. (No, I don’t meant "the barter system"; barter is the opposite of "system.") From "economic hardship" of a financial kind we will pass to "economic hardship" of a physical kind: hard manual labor and a scarcity of material goods. Then, of course, economic trends will be describable only in terms of materials, not money.


Chavez Announces The Beginning Of "a New Geopolitics Of Oil" At The Petrocaribe Summit

The hawkish Venezuelan leader called on his Caribbean and Latin American counterparts to come together against the "failed dictatorship of world capitalism." He said he wants to use Venezuela's oil reserves to help create a confederation of republics free of U.S. interests.


Sky-high fuel costs hit American Airlines

Steadily rising fuel prices and special charges will raise AMR Corp.'s unit costs for fourth quarter, the airline said in a regulatory filing Friday.


It's unfair to blame Asia for high oil prices

But amid all the noise about high prices from the West, Asia chugs along. While a lot has been said about how prices will affect growth, Asia has so far been successful in absorbing the high prices because of rapid economic growth. And, it needs oil, irrespective of price, to sustain this growth. Conversely, European and American economies are not growing at the same rate, which makes them scream for lower prices.


High Price of Oil is Chinese Petroleum Industry's Biggest Woe

The high price of oil is the Chinese petroleum and chemical industry's biggest problem, in addition to over investment and a low number of purchases, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA) said in a report released on Tuesday in Beijing.


Sakhalin sees Exxon oil output falling in 2008

An Exxon Mobil-led group developing Russia's Sakhalin-1 oil block is likely to reduce production to around 200,000 bpd next year from the peak of 250,000 bpd in 2007, the governor of Sakhalin said on Friday.


Russian gas deal dashes EU hopes

Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have signed a landmark deal to build a gas pipeline.

The pipeline will strengthen Moscow's control over Central Asian energy export routes, analysts said.

It also deals a blow to European Union hopes of securing alternative routes that would bypass Russia.


Vitol ends Iran contract

Iran's largest supplier of gasoline, independent oil trader Vitol, has decided to end its long-running contract to provide the country with the fuel from next year, an industry source said.

The source said Swiss-based Vitol has made the decision because it had made a loss of an estimated $70 million for the calendar year 2007 from its existing contract. The source did not mention any political considerations.


BP, Chronic Offender, Should Lose Its Sweet Deal

BP Plc could publish an insider's guide to courthouses across America, so often does the company and its subsidiaries find themselves in them.

They get prosecuted. They get sued. They get rapped by regulators. If it's not BP oil spilling in Alaska, it's a BP refinery exploding in Texas and claiming 15 lives.


The Philippines: Oil firms urged to speed up ethanol blend to cut fuel prices

Major biofuels player Seaoil Philippines Inc. on Friday urged other oil firms to speed up blend of ethanol in gasoline and increase the percentage blend to further reduce fuel prices.


As West's industry moves East, China now the world's smokestack

In its rush to recreate the industrial revolution that made the West rich, China has absorbed most of the major industries that once made the West dirty. Spurred by strong state support, Chinese companies have become the dominant makers of steel, coke, aluminum, cement, chemicals, leather, paper and other goods that faced high costs, including tougher environmental rules, in other parts of the world. China has become the world's factory, but also its smokestack.


China: Perfect storm of problems leaves many short of water nationwide

Zhang said in the 1950s, China annually lost 4.35 billion kilograms of grain to drought, or 2.5 percent of the annual total yield. But during the 1990s, agricultural losses increased sharply, to an annual figure of 20.9 billion kg, or 4.4 percent of the total yield. Since 2000, the situation has worsened further, with annual losses of about 37 billion kg, or more than 7 percent of the total.

This year, 39.93 million hectares of crops were affected by drought, with 349,267 ha yielding no grain at all, and 37.36 billion kg of grain were lost, according to Zhang.


Chavez oil diplomacy gains ground in Caribbean

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will assert his regional leadership at a summit in Cuba on Friday for Petrocaribe, his initiative to sell oil to Caribbean nations with soft financing.

With oil prices above $90 a barrel, Petrocaribe is offering terms that few can refuse, even the best allies of the United States: deferred payment of 40 percent of their oil bill for up to 25 years, at 1 percent interest.


Nigeria: Ateke Tom Dares FG, Claims Attack On NNPC Jetty

THE Tom Ateke-led Niger Delta Vigilante claimed responsibility, yesterday, for Wednesday's attack on the NNPC jetty at Okiriama -village in Okrika, Rivers State, and threatened more.

The Joint Task Force (JTF) vowed to get him at all costs but preferably alive "so that he can face justice."


India: The Poverty Of The Rich

The prognosis for North America is bad but not as dire. In fact, the IPCC predicts increased “aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20 percent.” This is ironical. North America, the largest contributor to global warming, is less severely affected than poorer nations in South Asia whose emissions are less than a tenth of the United States. There is a perverse consistency in this irony, though. Even within poorer nations, it is the poorest of the poor that will pay heavily for the excesses of the well-to-do.


Cuba’s Blackouts, an Dark Episode of the Past

It was May 2004 when Cuba’s national power grid took a tremendous hit: a breakdown occurred during regular maintenance at the Antonio Guiteras Power Plant in Matanzas.

Millions in investments in the production and distribution of electric power, as well as the delivery of more than 22 million new energy-saving appliances have signaled the “Energy Revolution” carried out in Cuba over the last few years


Canada: Another jump at the pump has drivers fuming

'Tis the season for a cash grab.

Gas prices have gone up today -- a day after some gas stations run dry.

And drivers feel the pumps are being used to suck back lost revenue.


The dangers of living in a zero-sum world economy

We live in a positive-sum world economy and have done so for about two centuries. This, I believe, is why democracy has become a political norm, empires have largely vanished, legal slavery and serfdom have disappeared and measures of well-being have risen almost everywhere. What then do I mean by a positive-sum economy? It is one in which everybody can become better off. It is one in which real incomes per head are able to rise indefinitely.

How long might such a world last, and what might happen if it ends? The debate on the connected issues of climate change and energy security raises these absolutely central questions. As I argued in a previous column ("Welcome to a world of runaway energy demand", November 14, 2007), fossilised sunlight and ideas have been the twin drivers of the world economy. So nothing less is at stake than the world we inhabit, by which I mean its political and economic, as well as physical, nature.

(If the FT link doesn't work, read it here)


KSA set to have sustainable capacity of 12mbpd by ’09

By the end of 2009, Saudi Arabia will have a sustainable oil capacity of 12 million barrels per day, compared to 10 million barrels per day in 2004.

"These days the oil industry is overwhelmed, to say the least, with issues such as prices, cost, peak oil, safety, environment, and security of supply and demand," Abd Allah S. Al Saif, Saudi Aramco's senior vice-president, said in his keynote address to the first drilling symposium organised by the state-owned oil company in Al Khobar, Eastern Province, recently.


Gazprom Neft Q3 net falls 7.4% as it reduces oil exports

Gazprom Neft said third-quarter net profit slipped to 957 mln usd, down 7.4 pct from 1.034 bln, as it reduced crude exports, and expanded domestic oil refining and petroleum product sales.


South Korean president-elect eyes energy deal with Russia

President-elect Lee Myung-bak expressed strong interest Friday in jointly developing energy resources in Russia's resource-rich Siberia with the help of North Korean labor.

Lee told Russian Ambassador Gleb Ivashentsov that he would make a massive development project there a priority after taking office in February.


Refinery firm seeks state permit

A Texas firm that hopes to build a huge oil refinery in Union County has filed for a state air permit.

A project engineer for Hyperion Resources says the permit is 1 of several that must be acquired before construction of the refinery can begin.


Petrobank Plans C$225 Million Oil-Sands Project in Alberta

Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd., the best performing energy stock this year in Canada, plans to spend C$225 million ($225.05 million) to develop an oil-sands project in northern Alberta.


India: Govt to hike fuel prices next year

The Union Government is expected to raise petrol and diesel prices moderately by the middle of January to help state-run oil firms reduce the loss they are incurring on selling fuel below cost.

"Be prepared for a modest or moderate hike in the prices of petrol and diesel, after a meeting of the Group of Ministers in the first week of January," Petroleum Secretary M S Srinivasan told reporters here.


Gas Crisis in South East Bangladesh

Energy & Power magazine has published a write up of Mr. Muinul Ahsan, our long time senior colleague and one of gas professional of glorious track record on the prevailing gas crisis of Bakhrabd Franchise Area (South East Bangladesh). It is already alarming and getting worse day by day with no immediate prospect of improvement.


Argentina To Unveil Strict New Power Saving Plan Friday

The Argentine government will on Friday announce sweeping new measures to reduce power consumption to head off a possible crisis in the coming summer months, an industry official said Thursday.

The key elements involve strict limits on power usage in state-owned buildings and public spaces and a nationwide incentive plan to exchange low-usage light bulbs for regular ones.


Bush says nuclear energy 'best' for greenhouse gases

US President George W. Bush said Thursday that nuclear power represents the "best solution" to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and stressed he was serious about fighting climate change.


Higher fares don't deter holiday fliers

The price of flying home for Christmas has jumped nearly 14% in the last two years, but higher fares haven't put a dent in robust holiday demand for air travel.


Time to call it a wrap for wrapping paper?

Some dream of a 'green Christmas' without the gift wrap, while others can't give up the element of surprise it brings.


An energetic law

The energy bill Bush signed Wednesday with great bipartisan fanfare does things that should have been done many times in the 32 years since the last time the law imposed tougher fuel economy standards on the auto industry.

At this rate, the other energy crisis facing the world — greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change — might be seriously addressed sometime around the year 2039. About the time that, by the most optimistic predictions, the Arctic ice cap will be gone.


Global warming, peak oil affect town's land policy

Energy supply is also a local issue. "Peak oil" - the point at which global oil production begins a permanent decline - is a reality and, although experts disagree on the exact timing, it is clear that our well-being in the coming decades depends on how well we prepare now for energy shortages and high energy prices.


Climate Change and the Economy

But another critically important problem that has arisen is this: Because energy drives the world economy, and because the “March to Market” of alternative energies has been blocked, and because the world is now sitting on a mountain of debt, we have a serious economic problem brewing . How can we possibly stimulate the world economy sufficiently to pay down the debt? The answer, in short, is: “We can't”. Let's not use up oxygen debating this issue. The debt will never be repaid. Alternatively, if it is repaid, it will be repaid in worthless dollars. That does not represent a solution and we should not go down that path.

I have been monitoring the “tactics” of the Western politicians since the 1980s. From time to time they use a “feint” tactic to divert the public's attention away from pressing issues. In my view, this whole brouhaha about Global Warming has been to deflect the public's attention away from the brewing economic problems. This behaviour does not result from “conspiracies”. It results from paternalism. We all do it with our children. We divert the child's attention away from the scraped knee by offering him a sweet. If he keeps wailing we belt him one.

The Gathering Net Export Storm

Increasing signs of problems with Russian oil production and net exports this year.

The EIA shows crude oil production to basically be flat since 10/06 (between 9.3 and 9.5 mbpd), and more and more investment banks are warning of problems with Russian production.

I received an e-mail from an energy analyst to the effect that preliminary Russian data show a pretty good drop in production and exports for November.

And now, the Russians themselves are forecasting lower exports (note that these are gross, not net exports).

http://www.kommersant.com/p838621/Crude_export_decline/
Dec. 21, 2007
Russia Turns Down the Crude Tap a Bit

Russia’s Industry and Energy Ministry has approved the crude oil export schedule for the first quarter of 2008. The export will go down by 1.5 percent vs. the fourth quarter of this year.

People in the RF Industry and Energy Ministry said yesterday that the ministry had approved the Q1’08 schedule for crude oil export via Transneft pipelines. Some 45 million tons of crude will be supplied to the far-abroad states from January to March, which is 1.5 percent down on quarter.

The schedule specifies the decline in deliveries in Novorossiysk and Primorsk direction. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary will get less crude oil via the pipelines. But Belarus will receive the same 4.5 million tons, although Ukraine may count on just 4.8 million tons vs. 5.1 million tons in the fourth quarter. The shipment to Pavlodarsk refinery, Kazakhstan, will shed to 1.07 million tons from 1.2 million tons.

At the same time, the transit supplies via Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan will increase (?) to 5.38 million tons from 5.87 million tons, and the transit to Germany via Belarus will step up from 300,000 tons to 375,000 tons. The schedule sets forth the first transit supplies to China via Kazakhstan. The amount is 300,000 tons of crude – TNK-BP and Gazpromneft will deliver 150,000 tons each.

In the ministry, they urge not to dramatize the situation and blame the decline on the seasonal nature of deliveries. But the analysts give different reasons, attributing the drop in crude export not to the cold winter but rather to the surge in export duties coupled with petroleum growth.

Putin attends opening of Toyota's new St. Petersburg plant
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071221/93651267.html

ST. PETERSBURG, December 21 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the launch ceremony of a new Toyota plant, which opened on Friday near his home town of St. Petersburg in northwest Russia.
[...]
The Russian president said about 1,000,000 cars annually would roll off production lines with foreign involvement in Russia over the next three-four years.

Here is what I don't get.... if indeed Russian energy industry insiders know/expect Russia to be peaking in oil imminently, with future declines steep, then why is Time's Man of the Year (and now supposedly the richest man in Europe) encouraging the increase of consumption in his own country, while at the same time also promoting Russia as a export savior (source of energy) to a great deal of Eurasia? Is he anticipating that NG/NGL can more than make up for the loss of crude?

Here is what I don't get.... if indeed Russian energy industry insiders know/expect Russia to be peaking in oil imminently, with future declines steep . .

I suspect that your premise is wrong. I suspect that they believe that the current forecast of a small decline in exports is a result of what they consider to be a short term drop in production combined with the ongoing rapid increase in consumption.

Denial is rampant in oil producing areas.

I have frequently described the comments by the Texas Stage Geologist (in response to a question from me in 2005, 33 years after Texas peaked) that while Texas may not be able to equal its peak oil production, we could, with the use of "better technology," significantly increase our production.

Re: Sakhalin sees Exxon oil output falling in 2008 (posted up top)

Consider this report in light of the following observation about Sakhalin production:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL1864486120071018
RenCap again cuts Russian
oil output forecast

Thu Oct 18, 2007
MOSCOW, Oct 18 (Reuters)

. . Excluding the Exxon Mobil's Sakhalin-1, daily crude output in Russia, the world's second biggest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia, has been down year-on-year since May. . .

I've been following a Russian website that publishes their crude oil production on a daily basis. Their oil production is expressed in tons. For all of December so far, it has been in an extremely narrow range of 1341-1349 thousand tons per day. Using 7.33 barrels of oil per ton, that translates to over 9.8 million barrels per day. However, I'm not sure 7.33 is the right conversion factor - there are several different ones on the Internet. Does anyone know anything about this?

NASAguy, I, and I know several others, have been looking for such a web site. Could you please post the link.

Thanks a million,

Ron Patterson

It depends on the gravity of the crude. I don't know what the average number is for Russia. The advantage of using tons is that the weight before and after refining is pretty much the same, whereas the volume (barrels) increases after refining. However, when using barrels you don't have to worry about the API gravity.

In any case, are they talking about C+C or total liquids?

BTW, good article I had forgotten about, with pertinent quotes:

http://www.energybulletin.net/16745.html
Published on 3 Jun 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 3 Jun 2006.
Confessions of a statistician
by Sohbet Karbuz
(former head of Non-OECD Energy Statistics Section of the International Energy Agency)

. . . Furthermore, it is not correct to make a peak oil analysis based on “all liquids,” because the non-conventional fuels I mentioned above do not come from an oil reservoir . . .

. . . Moreover, customs office and ministry/statistics office may not agree with each other on trade statistics (e.g. Russia). . .

. . . Best data come from EIA petroleum supply monthly but it comes out 2 months after the fact. . . .

. . . Missing link - Conversion Factors: Oil statistics in the world over are expressed by using four most common conventions - litre, cubic metre, barrel, and ton. Since world oil balances are usually expressed in barrels, the selection of appropriate conversion factor is essential. Interestingly, not enough attention is paid how different measurement units for oil are aggregated and which conversion factors are in use.

Although, the relationship between volume and mass measured by density or specific gravity, the number of barrels of crude oil per ton for the same country varies widely, depending on the source. The discrepancies in conversion factors in use, although seem small, are not negligible and in fact already play an important role in world oil balance. This can be demonstrated by using the Russian crude oil production. Russia releases its oil production in tons. Take an original Russian production figure in tons for any year. Then apply EIA and IEA’s conversion factors and see the difference. Do the same exercise for other countries that measure their oil in tons. Sum them up and compare the difference. You will be surprised! . . .

NASAguy thanks a million for the link. Now I can answer Jeffery's question.

In any case, are they talking about C+C or total liquids?

It is total liquids:

Crude Oil&Liquids (000 t)
18/12/07
Lukoil 245.4 0.2
Rosneft 312.7 -0.3
TNK-BP 188.3 0.1
Surgutneftegas 172.3 0.0
Gazprom Neft 88.6 0.3
Yukos 1.2 0.0
Tatneft 68.5 -0.1
Slavneft 55.7 0.0
Gazprom 36.1 -0.1
Bashneft 31.5 0.0
Russneft 39.2 0.6
Total in RF 1349.0 2.1

Ron Patterson

For what it's worth, I interpreted one of your excerpts incorrectly until I read it in context:

For instance, American Petroleum Institute and EIA regularly publish weekly data on the US stock position (with sometimes conflicting with each other). Note that the weekly bulletin of API is based on voluntary reporting with coverage of about 90-95% on most major series. Best data come from EIA petroleum supply monthly but it comes out 2 months after the fact.

The ex-IEA guy isn't saying the EIA data is better than IEA data (which is how I originally interpreted it), but rather appears to be saying that EIA's monthly data is better than EIA or API's weekly data, but comes out much later.

Just a heads-up in case anyone misreads that like I did.

Russia releases its oil production in tons. Take an original Russian production figure in tons for any year. Then apply EIA and IEA’s conversion factors and see the difference. Do the same exercise for other countries that measure their oil in tons. Sum them up and compare the difference.

What are these conversion factors? Might they account for the divergence between EIA and IEA figures?

the conversion from api gravity to specific gravity is:
spg= 141.5/(131.5 + api), a metric tonne is 2204.6 (us)lbs.
and a barrel (42 gallons) of water weights 350.5 lbs. the conversion is bbls/tonne = 6.29/spg or bbls/tonne = 6.29*(131.5 + api)/141.5.

so your conversion of 7.33 bbls/tonne would be correct for an api gravity of 33.4 degrees.

i think you mean tonnes (metric) i.e. 1000 kg

In the ministry, they urge not to dramatize the situation. . .

I think that there are two key points here: (1) The Russians themselves are forecasting lower exports and (2) They felt compelled to urge people not to panic.

My "Assume the Opposite" theory is, regarding oil production forecasts, peak oil, etc. by public officials, that one should generally--but not always--assume that the opposite of what they are saying is the truth.

I find Russia's Gazprom future natural gas supplies troubling. Russia is also the world's largest exporter of commerial fertilizer. I very concerned that Russia will impose export tarriffs on fertilizer to stem ag input cost inflation.

I see that natural gas is discounted to crude oil at historic levels all the way through 2013.

My question is, does it make sense for the spread between crude and nat gas to tighten? Isn't nat gas a relative bargain? Thanks in advance for help with this question.

As a producer, I feel it is crucial to find ways to hedge against the coming fertilizer crisis.

Because natural gas (NG) is so difficult to transport, it can't readily be shipped around the world the same way that oil can, although as LNG capacity increases this will gradually change, although I think that the bulk of LNG cargoes are under long term contract.

In any case, a long time NG guy told me one time that the difference between a North American NG glut and a shortage is 2% either way. In the short term, it's weather, weather, weather.

Longer term, I expect that the price spread between oil and NG to narrow considerably, partly because NG will increasingly be used as a transportation fuel, especially in fleet vehicles. And of course, we are probably facing severe supply problems. It's a question of how fast nonconventional production comes on line and how fast LNG imports increase, versus the ongoing decline in conventional production.

My understanding -- correct me if I am wrong -- is that the four LNG import terminals in the U.S. are not now operating at full capacity. I am not certain whether supply or demand is the problem, but I suspect it is both -- there is inadequate LNG supply, and the cost of the LNG is higher than competing natural gas in the same area as the import terminals.

Any one of the existing four could be enlarged at significantly less expense than building a new terminal (for example, on the Columbia River) and new pipelines (for example, from Astoria to Northern California).

Where do you think future expansions of LNG supply are going to come from, and where are they going to go?

Euan is much more on top of the global LNG situation, but I don't think that he is very optimistic.

The reason that US LNG import facilities are running at very low capacity levels is a function of price.

US NG prices are in the region of $7 per mmbtu, UK and European NG prices are in the region of $10.50 per mmbtu, Asian (predominantly Japan and South Korea) NG prices are indexed to oil and thus are close to $14 per mmbtu.

Since there is a defciit of liquefactin relative to regasification, the price in import markets determines where the LNG goes. US prices would have to go up a lot to compete for those supplies this winter. However, weather-related demand will also have to increase a lot to make prices rise. There is a historically high volume of NG in storage for the winter and no sign in the forecasts that there will be a prolonged cold snap in the key consumption areas.

Certainly true in the short term; the question is longer term LNG supply and demand.

Maybe they have figured out how to tap the thawing permafrost for methane.

Russian natural gas prices are pegged to oil prices (except few cases where Russia is forced to sell at lower price). So higher oil price will increase nat gas prices.

High Plains Farmer
If Russia is the world's largest exporter of natural gas made ammonium nitrate fertiliser or urea fertiliser, and we are among the world's largest importers, than Russia is the dominant world agricultural producers, because they decide who will grow enough food to eat.

re: wkwillis,

I find that unsettling.

Siwmae (Hiya) Leanan,

I just love your first pick, from the silly FT. I'm still giggling at it. Martin Wolf's last paragraph reads thus:

"The optimists believe that economic growth can and will continue. The pessimists believe either that it will not do so or that it must not if we are to avoid the destruction of the environment. I think we have to try to marry what makes sense in these opposing visions. It is vital for hopes of peace and freedom that we sustain the positive-sum world economy. But it is no less vital to tackle the environmental and resource challenges the economy has thrown up. This is going to be hard. The condition for success is successful investment in human ingenuity. Without it, dark days will come. That has never been truer than it is today."

Translated into straight, uncoded English this means:

"The only hope for peace and democracy is for economic growth to continue for ever. [Wrong]

On a finite, living planet this is impossible. [Right]

So we must use our best ingenuity to square this circle. [Ripe FT ridiculousness]"

The paradigms they are a-changin'. The comfortable beneficiiaries of the old paradigm are awakening from their state of unhappy and defiant denial, as that becomes palpably no longer tenable, and are just now passing through the state of magic-spell thinking to make all the horrible new paradigms go away.

As that becomes untenable too, what will they do? Wake up, wise up, and face up to what's coming whatever they do, maybe.

I know, I know, shadenfreude is cruel and useless. But it ain't half fun, when the victims are the cornucopian economists and their camp-followers. I love it!

I never waste time with the FT normally, Leanan, so thanks for this laugh.

Cofiona gorau (Best remembrances), Rhisiart Gwilym

And when the FT's man says this:

But it is no less vital to tackle the environmental and resource challenges the economy has thrown up.

...it is a very interesting way of assigning "blame." What does that mean, exactly, that the economy has thrown up environmental and resource challenges?

Maybe its Gaia that's throwing up.

By the end of 2009, Saudi Arabia will have a sustainable oil capacity of 12 million barrels per day, compared to 10 million barrels per day in 2004.

If I correctly remember prior graphs posted on the topic, KSA had their largest output in 2006? This plateau sure is bumpy, let me say, but it still is a plateau. I suspect, as most others here do, that the KSA is simply blowing smoke as to their possible sustainable output.

~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)

Saudi production in both 2006 and 2007 will be down relative to 2005. We shall see what happens in 2008, but in any case the current data show an annual accelerating net export decline rate.

Actually, Martin Wolf is changing his song quite dramatically. I had a lengthy exchange with him only months ago in which he basically reasoned that peak oil is not happening soon and is not such a big deal anyway.

I think, if one is a journalist who wants to keep one's job, it is important to present things that are only slightly ahead of the readers' expectations. If you are too far ahead, like the scout, you will get an arrow in the back!

Rich Karlgaard, who writes a print column for Forbes called "Digital Rules" and who also runs a blog with the same name, blogged on this column a couple of days ago. You can find his blog entry here. The vast majority of the comments had to with global warming, with Al Gore being lambasted for his "boondoggle." Interestingly, Rich's tag line for the blog entry is "Would placing limits on growth, in the cause of planet saving, lead us away from democracy and even civilization?" So he is positioning this as a voluntary choice rather than a fundamental limit imposed by geology and various "above-ground" constraints. I do believe that the cornucopians are going to attempt to pin the blame for declining oil production on environmentalists. This strategy might meet with some success, at least initially.

Martin Wolf also had another column called Welcome to the new world of runaway energy demand. This is about one month old and may have been discussed previously on TOD. Wolf concludes that piece by saying

What is the bottom line? It is simple: commercial energy is the staff of our contemporary life. As demand for energy rises, nothing is more important than ensuring increased supply and efficient use, while curbing environmental damage. Today's high prices are a start. Fundamental innovation and high prices on greenhouse gas emissions must follow.

I actually think the FT article is very good, even though I'm less optimistic than the author (Martin Wolf). One interesting point he makes is the existence of a "plunder-based economy." From the article:

A zero-sum economy leads, inevitably, to repression at home and plunder abroad...

...Some peoples made almost a business out of such plunder: the Roman republic was one example...In a world of stagnant living standards the gains of one group came at the expense of equal, if not still bigger, losses for others. This, then, was a world of savage repression and brutal predation...

...The age of the plunderer is past. Or is it?

I can't help but look at what the USA is doing in Iraq, and thinking that we are watching an updated version of Pirates of the Caribbean (better call it Pirates of the Persian Gulf). I expect to see more of it. And more repression at home (ie the USA) too. In fact, looking at the way the US economy has been restructured since "Reaganomics" came to the forefront, I think we were seeing the beginnings of the plunder-based economy long before the peak oil crisis came into the politicians' consciousness (maybe I'm assuming too much when I say it "has yet come into the politician's consciousness" - only a few of them yet seem to "get it", but they all will in time).

So yes, Martin Wolf makes a good point. He actually doesn't sound all that optimistic to me, but suggests that maybe there is a way to reconcile the dilemma between endless growth and the need to plunder the poor when resources run low. I guess he hopes that technology will come to the rescue, allowing use to continue the positive-sum game.

As that ancient Chinese proverb/curse says, May you live in interesting times.

best wishes to all for a Happy Holiday,
and may your bomb shelter be well-stocked,

- Oz

Jimmy Carter's sweater speech in 1977 awoke the smarter people to the idea that the future was going to be a zero sum game. It did not lead to altruistic behavior. The plunder mentality really took hold in the US 1978 - 1980. It started in California with the 1978 proposition 13 tax revolt that benefitted existing property owners at the expense of future property owners. The January 1980 proclamation of the Carter Doctrine - that the US would go to war for oil - was the coming out party of the US as a plunder state. The election of Reagan was just the icing on the cake.

Good historical perspective.... the peak of US oil production... followed by the oil shock... followed by Carter era economic stringencies... and calls for conservation... leading to the 1978 Proposition 13 "I've got mine" resolution... and laying the ground for the election of Reagan and the new American fascism under Reagan....

As Naomi Klein would put it the fascists used the sense of fear and unraveling that was deeply linked to domestic (U.S.) peak oil to shift the body politic far to the right under Reagan, re-create a military empire capable of assuring foreign oil supplies, and set up extra-governmental power centers (both corporate and extra territorial) that could maintain right wing dominance even in the event of a temporary loss of control of the government (as happened ultimately with Clinton.)

The Reagan years were the years of military rebuilding and empire re-making, the years in which the "military industrial" complex that Eisenhower warned against essentially took over the U.S. Congress and government.

So, no I don't think the Reagan election was mere icing... that was the seminal event itself, but kudos to you for pointing out the line that runs from early in the 1970's energy crisis up to the real fascist revolution under Reagan and the beginning of the plunder state.

In the coming decade, as global peak oil bites, look for more of the same, but biting harder, as personal fears for economic and social position lead people to support empire, violence and militarism.

IDEOLOGY trumps objectively reality until reality grabs the present by the scruff of the neck and gives it a good shaking. Then, if one is lucky, a new paradigm/ideology emerges that hopefully is closer to the real world.