DrumBeat: December 23, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 23, 2007 - 9:59am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The Fuel Fixers: How the scarcity of oil may be making our antibribery laws obsolete
The case raises a number of questions, including this one: in an era of scarce oil, can America afford to punish anyone who cuts corners to win deals for American firms? In 2003, when oil sold for less than $30 a barrel, it was possible to believe we could have our anticorruption statutes and our cheap gasoline. Four years later, with oil going for $95 a barrel, it’s not so clear. The British government, citing-national security concerns, has called off an investigation into bribery of influential Saudis. Delays in Giffen’s case suggest that some federal agencies may be more concerned with protecting secrets than with seeing the prosecution go forward. Much of the pretrial evidence has been sealed, but what is known is that Giffen’s lawyers have asked for sensitive documents that they contend will show official approval of their client’s activities.
Advent of the £1000 power bill is not so far away
MILLIONS OF households could be hit by 15% price hikes in their energy bills next year, which could lead to the return of average bills in excess of £1000, experts warn. British Gas and nPower have already announced price increases on their tracker tariffs, stoking fears that further price rises could be on the way from other suppliers in the new year.
Farm Today: Fuel law creates losers, winners
Here's a look at who wins and who loses from enactment of the mandate, and a few folks for whom the impact won't be known for a while...
Elect me and oil prices instantly drop, says Hillary Clinton in Iowa
Hillary Clinton predicted Saturday that just electing her President will cut the price of oil.When the world hears her commitment at her inauguration about ending American dependence on foreign fuel, Clinton says, oil-pumping countries will lower prices to stifle America's incentive to develop alternative energy.
Drivers on road despite expense
Gary Schuster does not like the trend for gas prices."They're at a disagreeable level," the 54-year-old Dearborn, Mich., resident said this week as he spent more than $40 to fill up his Ford Explorer Sport.
But gas prices have not risen enough to get him to change his driving habits or consider a smaller vehicle, said Schuster, who works on computer and pool equipment.
Guyana: Electricity tariff hike may be imminent
An increase in electricity tariffs may be imminent but so far the power company has not raised the issue nor has Cabinet addressed it, Cabinet Secretary Dr Roger Luncheon has said.However, in the light of worldwide fuel price increases, Luncheon said Cabinet has recognised that the company would only achieve financial recovery if it raised tariffs, even with successful loss reduction activities and a reduction of operating and maintenance costs.
Saudi Arabia plans world's largest SWF
World's largest oil producer Saudi Arabia is set to overtake the $900 billion sovereign wealth fund (SWF) of Abu Dhabi by setting up the largest SWF in the world, according to a Financial Times report yesterday.
Iran: nuclear plant ready by March
Iran's first nuclear power plant will be operational within three months, providing electricity to Iran's national power grid by the summer, according to Iranian Energy Minister Parviz Fattah.
Nuclear waste could power Britain
A plan by the nuclear industry to build a £1bn fuel processing plant at Sellafield is being backed by the government's chief scientist. The plant would turn the UK's 60,000 tonnes of high-level nuclear waste into reactor fuel that will provide 60 per cent of this country's electricity until 2060, it is claimed.
In letting their home function as both a laboratory and a marketing device, Ms. Reiner and Mr. Basche, it turns out, are not unique. Green show houses, sponsored by magazines, nonprofit groups and developers, are appearing across the country, spreading a message about environmentally conscious building to designers, builders and home buyers, and helping to sell building products.
Plan on Airline Emissions Hints at U.S.-Europe Rift
European Union governments have scaled back a proposed law that would regulate emissions from any airline with takeoffs or landings in Europe. But on Thursday, the ministers still agreed within five years to adopt measures likely to intensify a battle with the United States over global environmental regulation.
Talking Heads Not Talking Climate
The League of Conservation Voters generated quite a bit of buzz on environmental blogs this week after it launched a new campaign pressing America’s most-watched political reporters to bring up global warming more often on all those influential Sunday talk shows. The group reviewed videotape of more than 120 interviews of presidential contenders by Chris Wallace, Tim Russert, George Stephanopoulos, Wolf Blitzer and Bob Schieffer this year.In the 2,275 questions posed, the phrases “climate change” or “global warming” were used three times, and a total of 24 questions indirectly touched on climate or related issues, the group said.
Australia: Big Oil's highway robbery
PETROL companies have been accused of price gouging after the consumer watchdog issued a "please explain" over rising Christmas prices.With average unleaded prices remaining above $1.40 a litre in Sydney yesterday, the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC) has demanded justification from the bosses of oil giants Caltex, Shell, Mobil, BP, as well as supermarket empires Woolworths and Coles.
Australia: Petrol tax under fire
THE Federal Government has come under fresh fire over sky-high petrol prices as motorists hit the road for the Christmas break.Nationals leader and Opposition transport spokesman Warren Truss said the Rudd Labor Government had deceived voters over petrol prices and called for the GST on fuel to be cut.
Strikes, fuel hike to disrupt holidays
AUSTRALIANS face holiday travel chaos, with refinery problems driving up petrol prices and possible industrial action restricting flights.
Nepal: Petro dealers walk out, say govt ‘indifferent’
The regular supply of petroleum products looks even more uncertain, as the Nepal Petroleum Dealers’ Association (NPDA), the umbrella organisation of petrol entrepreneurs, Sunday walked out of negotiations with the government to end the fuel crisis facing the country.NPDA said that the protest was necessary because it did not see any signs of reaching a common ground in order to resume the supply of petroleum products even after holding four rounds of talks with the government.
Russia Signs Deal for Gas Pipeline Along Caspian Sea
Desperate to meet growing domestic and European demand, Russia signed a deal Thursday with the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a natural gas pipeline along the Caspian Sea, a move that analysts said could strengthen Russia’s monopoly on energy exports from the region.
In addition to their own enterprises, the family has wealthy allies, including national politicians like Surya Paloh, a media magnate and national head of FKPPI, and Sulawesi-based ethnic Chinese businesspeople. Serving on the boards of Chinese-run businesses provides an additional source of wealth for the family.With such resources at hand, during election campaigns, the Yasin Limpo family has found innovative ways to buy voters’ sympathy. For example, they have bought farmers’ products above market prices and provided cheap gasoline from fuel tankers they toured through the districts. The clan has also paid electricity bill collectors in past elections to promise voters that they will be excused from paying their electricity bills for six months in subdistricts where their candidates win a majority.
Asian LPG gains on winter demand and stockpile drop
Asian liquefied petroleum gas rose on lower stockpiles as demand for winter heating fuel gained. Propane for delivery to Japan added 1.1% to $900 a metric tonnes, including cost and freight. Butane climbed 0.6% to $910 a tonne.Consumer inventories, which aren’t included in the official wholesale data, may be “much lower than normal” as consumers delayed purchases, said Ken Otto, senior vice president at industry consultant Purvin & Gertz Inc. “If winter weather turns out to be colder than expected, this could add a lot of strength to the market.”
Fuel assistance is far from solving the problem in Lakes Region
High fuel costs, a lack of federal funding and a particularly harsh start to the winter have struggling families applying and qualifying for home heating fuel assistance — only to be told the money is not there to help fill their tanks.
$3 gas pinches holiday wallets
With only a few days left until Christmas, many were busy making holiday meals and gift and travel preparations. But for Mrs. Kolde, Christmas will be an ordinary day.“There are no travel plans this year,” she said. “Because when you’re retired like me and you have a bare minimum of Social Security coming in, you really just can’t take the trip.”
Experts predict more rising grocery costs for 2008
Ephraim Leibtag, an economist with the United States Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service, said a number of factors -- including bad weather, overseas demand and fuel prices -- were responsible for the rising grocery store costs.But even should those factors change it is unlikely prices will drop as rapidly as they rose, he said.
And most did rise. Leibtag said most food prices went up in 2007, and foods that require less processing -- meats, milk, eggs and vegetables -- went up the most.
Sri Lanka: Global food crisis not far away
According to the FAO record world prices for most staple foods have led to high food price inflation in China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Latin America, Russia and India, FAO also adds that wheat has doubled in price, maize is nearly 50% higher than a year ago and rice is 20% more expensive.The worst is global food reserves are at their lowest in 25 years and prices are expected to be higher for years. On the other hand food riots have been reported from India, Yemen and Mexico.
No Joke, Bulb Change Is Challenge for U.S.
Manufacturers are putting a lot of stock in light-emitting diodes — or L.E.D.’s. They operate with chips made of nontoxic materials and last for about 50,000 hours, compared with 1,000 hours for an incandescent and 6,000 for a compact fluorescent. A tiny L.E.D. can shed as much light as a cumbersome bulb, which makes them easier to integrate into a home’s décor. And, they are extremely energy efficient.But today, they are too expensive to use for all lighting applications. And, while manufacturers are able to make pretty good colored L.E.D.’s — the kind that are already available for Christmas tree lights — they have yet to perfect a white L.E.D. that would be useful for lighting homes.
Repository on local officials' wish list
Remote-handled waste has been sent to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad for almost a year now.The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership appears to be at a standstill, at least in ways that could directly apply to Carlsbad and southeastern New Mexico.
So what's the next move for local officials who want to see the area's nuclear footprint expand?
For starts, local officials are courting Areva, a French nuclear giant that is looking at an enrichment facility somewhere in the United States. An area between Carlsbad and Hobbs is reportedly one of the finalists under consideration.
A couple of weeks ago, The Times’s Jim Yardley reported from China that the world’s last known female Yangtze giant soft-shell turtle was living in one Chinese zoo, while the planet’s only undisputed, known giant soft-shell male turtle was living in another — and together this aging pair were the last hope of saving a species believed to be the largest freshwater turtles in the world.It struck me as I read that story that our generation has entered a phase that no previous generation has ever experienced: the Noah phase. With more and more species threatened with extinction by The Flood that is today’s global economic juggernaut, we may be the first generation in human history that literally has to act like Noah — to save the last pairs of a wide range of species.
Fire and brimstone can't cool global warming
There is an existential question at the heart of the debate over global warming: Can green groups transform themselves into institutions motivated by a vision of prosperity and possibility? Or will they remain grounded in the politics of pollution and limits?"
Many people think mistakenly that modern prosperity was founded on this fossil energy revolution, and that when the oil and coal is gone, it is back to the Stone Age. If we had no fossil energy, then we would be forced to rely on an essentially unlimited amount of solar power, available at five times current energy costs. With energy five times as expensive as at present we would take a substantial hit to incomes. Our living standard would decline by about 11 percent. But we would still be fantastically rich compared to the pre-industrial world.That may seem like a lot of economic hurt, but put it in context. Our income would still be above the current living standards in Canada, Sweden or England. Oh, the suffering humanity! At current rates of economic growth we would gain back the income losses from having to convert to solar power in less than six years. And then onward on our march to ever greater prosperity.
The Post-Oil Economy: After The Techno-Fix
The path beyond petroleum begins by considering five principles: that alternative sources of energy are insufficient; that hydrocarbons, metals, and electricity are inseparable; that advanced technology is part of the problem, not part of the solution; that post-oil agriculture means a smaller population; and that the basis of the problem is psychological, not technological.
Venezuela looks for help to triple Orinoco output
Venezuela aims to more than triple output from its Orinoco heavy crude reserve in five years and will start looking for companies that can help achieve that goal from January, the national oil company said on Saturday.State-owned oil company PDVSA said it would develop new projects to produce 2 million barrels per day from the Orinoco region within five years.
Clouds over Nigeria's oil industry
Despite being the world's eighth petroleum exporter and sitting on huge gas reserves, Nigeria will not have it easy over the next two years, between peristent unrest in the Niger Delta and strained relations with the major oil companies."In view of the current problems, their goal of 4.0 million barrels per day in 2010 seems inaccessible in the current situation," said the head of one multinational company operating in the delta, the oil region where violence and insecurity are endemic.
Nigeria: Rivers Imposes Curfew On Okrika
Following the breakdown of law and order in Okrika, a riverine surburb in Rivers State, where militants had recently bombed the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the State Governor, Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, has imposed a dusk to dawn curfew, starting from 6pm to 6am with effect from last Friday.
UAE will revalue currency by July says bank
The United Arab Emirates was 60 per cent likely to revalue its dollar-pegged dirham unilaterally or in conjunction with other Gulf oil producers in the first half of next year, an investment bank has predicted.
Iran says gets 90% of oil income in euros, yen
Iran has boosted oil export earnings in non-U.S. dollar currencies to 90 percent, a senior official said on Sunday, making clear the world's fourth-largest crude exporter would continue to reduce its dollar exposure.
Saudi arrests 28 Qaeda suspects over attack plot
Saudi Arabia announced on Sunday the arrest of 28 Al-Qaeda linked suspects for planning attacks in the oil-rich kingdom, following an alleged plot to commit a "terrorist act" during the annual Muslim pilgrimage, or hajj."Since December 14, 28 members of the deviant group (the term used by the Saudi authorities for Al-Qaeda) have been arrested, including one foreign resident and the rest Saudi nationals," an interior ministry official said in a statement carried by the official SPA news agency.
Iran says in talks on selling gas to Italy's Edison
Iran is in talks with Italian power utility Edison about exporting gas to the European Union country, Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said on Sunday.Iran sits atop the world's second largest gas reserves after Russia. But sanctions, politics and construction delays have slowed its gas development, and analysts say the country is unlikely to become a major exporter for a decade.
Equipment Makers Profiting More From Oil Prices Than Producers
Oil prices above $90 a barrel are doing more for shareholders of Cameron International and Baker Hughes than Exxon Mobil and Chevron. A lot more.Exxon, the world's largest oil company; Chevron, the second-biggest in the United States; and the rest of the industry are struggling to increase production and profits because the most promising new fields are miles beneath the ocean. Their difficulties are making Houston-based Cameron and Baker Hughes richer, since they provide the valves, pumps and fluids needed to extract crude from the waters off Brazil to the Arctic Ocean.
India: Fewer divers put oil industry deep in crisis
At present, there are some 1,500 air, mixed gas and saturation divers in the country servicing major companies like ONCG, Cairn India, Oil India Ltd, Essar Oil, etc.But according to Satpal Singh, joint managing director, Dolphin Offshore, the only firm that provides diving services to oil companies, “India will require the services of another 1,500-2,000 divers for carrying out work like drilling, laying of pipelines and platforms, inspection, maintenance, installation of jackets, etc”.
Vietnam oil delegation to visit Iran
Vietnam's National Oil and Gas Group is slated to send a delegation to Iran to discuss the expansion of relations in the oil sector, PressTV reported.
Consumers grousing about soaring gas prices often focus on the big oil companies and anyone else who might profit when it costs more at the pump. But one culprit that doesn't always get fingered when prices rise - a weak dollar - could draw more attention in the coming year.
'The Oil' a slick account of the world of geopolitics
The central character is the oil beneath the Caspian Sea. LeVine, who lives in Dallas, uses oil to tell the story of how some former Soviet states gained their financial independence from Russia. The book is a fascinating back-door history of the Soviet political collapse and the U.S. response.
Ralph Nader: Big Oil’s Profit and Plunder
While many impoverished American families are shivering in the winter cold for lack of money to pay the oil baron their exorbitant price for home heating oil, ex-oil man, George W. Bush sleeps in a warm White House and relishes his defeat of the Congressional attempt to get rid of $15 billion in unconscionable tax breaks given those same profit-glutted oil companies like ExxonMobil when crude oil was half the price it is today.
Analysis: U.S. military & Iran - Part 6
Globally, a reduction, even a temporary one, in oil exports would likely have a mixed impact. Developed states are far better prepared to deal with such a contingency. A congressional joint economic committee study released earlier this year found that, "The immediate loss of oil from the disruption would be secondary. Due to the experience of six oil crises since World War II, most oil-importing nations have accumulated substantial oil stores already. While a blockage of the (Hormuz) Strait would have a much larger impact on the daily flow of oil than any prior interruption in supply, oil released from private and strategic inventories, in theory, could manage the physical loss of oil for many months."
By 2050 solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions● A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.
● A vast area of photovoltaic cells would have to be erected in the Southwest. Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours.
The Bush administration’s decision to deny California permission to regulate and reduce global warming emissions from cars and trucks is an indefensible act of executive arrogance that can only be explained as the product of ideological blindness and as a political payoff to the automobile industry.
EPA chief is said to have ignored staff
The head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ignored his staff's written findings in denying California's request for a waiver to implement its landmark law to slash greenhouse gases from vehicles, sources inside and outside the agency told The Times on Thursday."California met every criteria . . . on the merits. The same criteria we have used for the last 40 years on all the other waivers," said an EPA staffer. "We told him that. All the briefings we have given him laid out the facts."
Is this the world we want to leave to our children?
Last month’s IPCC report predicts dramatic changes in rain distribution around the world. One likely consequence the scientists point to is "severely compromised" access to food in many African countries by 2020. "In some countries," it estimates, "yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 per cent."For most of us, many generations (happily) distant from any experience or understanding of hunger, the 50 per cent figure may carry little meaning. Historically, however, European famines were triggered by five to 10 per cent harvest declines. Most starvation occurred not from drastic shortage of food, but from soaring prices. Poor harvests triggered fear, stockpiling and hyperinflation, a sequence which quickly priced the poor out of the foodgrain market.
I agree with the Life After Peak article that it is possible to change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity.
Germany de-monopolized power generation and now generates 12% of the electricity from solar. Their Feed-in-Tariffs has created 250,000 post-oil jobs and exports of 8.5 billion Euros in 2007. Not bad of a 5 year old policy.
Current transportation is less than 1% efficient, with 99% going to climate change. Soon there will be a wave of de-monopolization of transportation. The success of Morgantown's PRT will commercialize.
There is plenty of energy in solar. In ultra-light versions of Morgantown (Why move a ton to move a person?) the energy required to move a mile is 200 watt-hours. Solar collectors 6-foot wide mounted on the rail, gather 2.5 million watt-hours in a typical day (16% efficient solar collectors). That is enough power for 12,500 vehicle-miles.
The cost to build, operate, maintain and power these networks is about 65% of current transportation costs. Wealth can increase by changing from oil to ingenuity.
The Internet is an example of infrastructure evolution possible in a once stagnant and monopolized industry.
The major risk is that monopolies have stifled incremental innovation, delaying action to a point the economy is brittle and cannot adapt in time.
The success of Morgantown's PRT...
LMAOROTL !
Morgantown a "success" ?
Incrediably high cost to build, major operational problems for the first decade. Still high operating costs. Boeing's biggest failute !
Hint: A second line with that technology was never built. "White Elephant" is unfair to pachyderms
Alan
Life after Peak Fossils
Don't you just love it when the economics educators flex their intellect by using big words like "energy"?
Prof. Clark (CV here) suggests that energy is energy and the only thing that matters is the price (here).
Solar energy cannot be stored for use during those long cloudy winter days. Oil can.
Here is a quote from Thomas Edison from 1910:
"Sunshine is spread out thin and so is electricity. Perhaps they are the same, Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy.”
“Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property.
“There must surely come a time when heat and power will be stored in unlimited quantities in every community, all gathered by natural forces. Electricity ought to be as cheap as oxygen...."
If we are clever enough, we can store and use solar effectively. Almost everything else on earth lives within a solar budget. Are we so unclever that we cannot?
We are certainly clever enough -- at least, individually and in small groups. The problem comes in the group dynamics of human behavior, when brilliant minds turn to mush.
I used to ponder, and wonder how the German people (I have a German heritage and a lot of German friends) could have been so stupid as to allow the rise of the National Socialists. Then we "elected" a modern version in the U.S. -- and the remarkable thing is that the contagion is spreading, even apparently on the European Continent where hardly two generations ago a vastly ruinous war (or suite of wars) nearly destroyed Western civilization.
Elias Canetti, a Nobel Prize winning author, investigated this in Crowds and Power. Now, finally, it makes sense to me. But the question in my mind has changed -- is it possible to develop a leadership that doesn't become tyrannical over time?
Let's flip it around:
Is it possible to develop a followship that does not fall for the mind bending tricks of a group of wanna-be tyrants?
Yes and no - we can create a group of people who can maintain a clarity of mind. But teaching other generations to have a core of values but be flexible considering a generations unique circumstances - thats very hard.
The Jeffersonian principle of an educated electorate falls apart when politicians appeal to emotions like fear. Even the brightest people fall victim to fear and can make some bad decisions as a result.
Well, it hasn't happened yet. But there is always that greatest narcotic of all -- hope.
It has nothing to do with being clever or not. All other species indeed lives within their solar budget, until their population gets too large. Then it must crash.
The big question is, are we beyond our carrying capactiy with our current population? The general feeling is we are way past that and the only way of our society to survive is to have a huge reduction, more than 50%, in population. Question is how do we get there?
We are so clever we have fabricated a fictitious method of accounting for our cleverness which we call "economics". We are so clever we have fooled ourselves into believing that the laws of our man-made "economics" trumps the laws of nature.
So yes. If we were less clever, we could devise systems for collecting and storing useful energy that originates as solar energy. But we are more clever than that. We paralyze ourselves with our cleverness into fretting over whether it will be "economical" to develop such solar based systems and to stop freebasing off the high EROI of Natured produced oil.
We were so clever that we created nuclear power and it was suppose to be so cheap we would not have to meter it. So much for that clever move.
Clark is rather Kunstlerian:
And, regarding solar energy, certainly there are places on Earth where hyro, wind, nuclear, etc. make more sense than solar, though for a non-trivial part of the US solar is likely the future.
We don't have to go back to living like this:
http://www.shorpy.com/node/2141
Though I do believe it won't be as simple or painless as Clark suggests.
For an academic economist, Clark seems not to bother with things such as math.
To convert the entire US from oil to solar electricity in six years? I don't think that building enough factories to produce that much PVs could be accomplished in six years. How many years would it take to even build the capital to build those factories?
Where do they get the energy to build all those PVs so quickly? How long for the siting and installation of those new PVs? How long to design and replace the auto fleet from fossil fuels to electric? We don't even have any practical electrical cars now. He doesn't consider the annual production of silicon for PVs, or how much production of rare earth elements per year that need to be in all those thin film solar cells.
Same for batteries. How much lithium can the world supply per year if we chose to go battery-operated cars?
And just who is going to finance this massive switch from fossil to solar, the government? The same government which thinks massive ethanol production is a good and practical thing? The same government which can't extricate itself from its $12 billion per month foreign adventures? The same government which is already running massive budget deficits? I could go on forever.
He claimed the US standard of living would only decline by 11% if we made this switch, but offers not a single figure to back up his ridiculous claim.
We can easily build enough solar to replace all the natural gas burned for power in America, because that gas is burned for air conditioning. That's what peaking power is.
We can't easily build enough solar to replace the natural gas burned for heat. That's needed at night. The sun does not shine at night. We can't easily build enough solar to replace the natural gas used to make plastics, either.
But if we don't build the solar for the easy natural gas replacement very soon, we will have to build the solar for the hard natural gas replacement as well.
Concentrating solar photovoltaic, fifty gigawatts a year, every year, until we don't need it any more.
Hi wk,
Thanks for this point. I noticed that the Sci Am article invited people to comment. I hope you do.
One thing that bothered me about the article was the FF growth assumptions.
And the time frame they use.
Another was - well, I'm almost afraid to say it. A region of concentrated solar panels seems rather vulnerable to me. More vulnerable in some ways that the current system. (Though perhaps not even a good comparison to make, as we know where it's headed.)
Yes, well, Ron and Airdale - and the most welcome SCT. (What can I add?)
Q: What about a program to put solar on existing rooftops? Or, are they saying this is not (or is even less) economically feasible.
Solar panels are about as concentrated as coal mines and nukes and gas. Gas power plants cover several acres, and also several thousand miles of natural gas transmission lines. Coal plants need only a few square miles of coal mine (coal can burn, but not easily) that also needs to be protected. Nuclear power plants only need a few square miles of setback to be reasonably safe from anyone that doesn't have a six inch howitzer along. It works out to about the same area for all power supplies.
Hi wk
Thanks, agreed. What I was referring to was the concentration of the source (panels) in one geographical area. W. FF, yes the NG, for eg, is concentrated but not really all in one place, and at present all the various FF sources are redundant in some ways. The thing, too, about solar, is it's all above ground (except for their storage proposal). Anyway...
Some people are so ignorant about storing solar energy. Storing heat is a very simple and cheap technology. A large tank of water can hold enough energy to keep a house warm through many cold winter nights. Higher temperature heat can be stored in an insulated pile of rocks for several months. Daytime PV could power a large freezer and use the generated ice to cool the building through those muggy summer nights.
You can make NG by gasifying biomass. You can heat homes using solar thermal energy. You can store renewable energy using pumped hydro at more than 70% efficiency. There are many ways of living more cleanly and sustainably, we just have to have the will to invest in them and make them happen.
"To convert the entire US from oil to solar electricity in six years? "
That's not what he said. He said the cost of conversion would cost 11% of our GDP, and that that could be paid for with 6 years of economic growth.
Here's what I've learned after four years of reading:
There is such a pile of contradictory information out there people will simply choose the view that is compatible with their temperament. And who can blame them?
This is true of "doomers" AND "cornucopians," and everything between. It is impossible for the lay person to have anywhere near the time and energy to verify or refute the various claims. In this way, I think, the peak oil awareness movement is a failure. Awareness of just exactly what?
It reminds me of the Jesus Seminar scholars' view of the "historical Jesus": "Beware of finding only the Jesus that is congenial to you."
The problem is, as the saying goes, the historical Jesus is not just unknown but probably also unknowable.
This is why I think the skeptics movement is so inhumane: They expect the public to have the time and capacity to be as richly informed as they are.
What does this lead to? General paralysis. There is nothing like a consensus and therefore no way to decide what to prepare for.
This leaves us all, once again, the playthings of history.
The only way to confirm or deny peak oil scenarios is when they do/don't come to pass.
The rest is bungling.
The realistic person seeks balance in all things.
Live w/in your means.
Right now, only Cuba (as a nation) is doing this.
And why the US is doomed to being a nation of slaves.
And it's no accident that the growth of people perfectly matches, w/ about a 15 year offset, the production of oil.
BTW-the Arctic goes ice free by 2012.
Meaning we're out of the Holocene.
Forgive me for pointing this out.
I have read a lot of references to Cuba on TOD as some sort of beacon and example for us all to follow. Cuba is in fact a tyranny where a tiny ruling class is living very comfortably indeed and the mass of humanity is just getting by, not unlike their ancestors.
Please do not assume that I am not suggesting that if they had a capitalist system things would be entirely different - there would still be a tiny ruling clique (a somewhat different one) and the masses would still be living in a not very dissimilar way.
I, too, recoil from the comparisons.
Cuba is a tiny place compared to a continent like North America. I can't even imagine the US going through a shock transition the way Cuba did.
Wasn't there a period where average body weights dropped by 20%?
Wait a minute... Maybe it wouldn't be so bad...
...but I jest.
Agreed. Cuba also was never fully self-sufficient in food. They had to import staples like beans and rice.
And they have a year-round growing season. They're about the size of Pennsylvania, with about the same population. Some US states are considerably more crowded (mostly in the northeast), and the sparsely-populated west has water issues Cuba does not.
Cuba also got some international aid. I think that's one thing many people overlook. Fossil fuels have provided a safety net that was unknown for most of human history. If your crops fail, you can buy food on the global market, and it will be speedily delivered via petroleum-powered transport. If you can't afford to buy it, international aid organizations will buy it for you.
Said aid organizations are already feeling the strain, as food and fuel prices rise. And what happens if there's no surplus food to buy?
IMO, this is what those "we'll all have permaculture gardens in our backyards" scenarios miss. Maybe there is enough land (assuming you can redistribute it) to support the entire population...under ideal conditions. But conditions won't be ideal. They never are. There will be fire, flood, untimely frosts, drought, disease, etc. Will we still have a grain surplus in case of crop failure? And will we be able to move it where it's needed?
People have always traded -- the Romans imported huge amounts of wheat, oil, wine -- and long before fossil fuel was used for transportation. Of course, they cut down all the forests in the process, and eventually drove technology to using fossil fuels. But no area can be fully self-sufficient if people are to live as human beings.
And of course, the "population" issue keeps coming up. As individuals, people don't live very long, even under the best of circumstances. Populations will quickly decrease to "carrying capacity" when conditions change. The current "carrying capacity" is obviously not sustainable over time, but a population crash will not be the end of civilization.
It may be silly to think that "permaculture in the back yard" will solve all problems -- but it is foolish to maintain that it can't be part of the solution.
People have always traded...but it wasn't sufficient to prevent famine and dieoff. Until fairly recently.
not even recently. And especially, not now!
I visited Cuba regularly in the mid 90s during the period when withdrawal of Soviet aid was biting hardest. I was hanging out with everyday Cubans, not inhabiting the tourist economy. Some things I remember were:
- Regular rolling electricity blackouts (usually two 4-hour stoppages per day) in Havana. Those big old 50s US fridges just stopped running - didn't really matter though, there was nothing in them to defrost.
- "No hay" was the first bit of Spanish that became familiar - no hay agua, no hay comida, no hay ropas, no hay electricidad, no hay NADA!
- The official peso/dollar exchange rate was 1:1. However, offers of 100:1 could easily be found. Note however, that there was basically nothing you could buy with pesos except for the ubiquitous "Populares" cigarettes
- Going into the coffee shop at the Habana Libre and finding they had no coffee... "Desculpeme Senor - It's all been exported for hard currency"
- Crowds of people sheltering from the sun under motorway bridges, waiting for a lift, most of them holding small plastic bottles of gasoline as inducements to passing drivers
- My girlfriend at the time (a Cuban doctor) explaining to me that patients in hospitals were being injected with water as a placebo, because there weren't any drugs
- the only pet dogs and cats to be seen were tiny and emaciated
My g/f eventually visited me in the UK, and the most abiding memory I have of her severe culture shock was when we took a trip to the Lake District. She was completely stunned by seeing fields full of sheep and no armed guards protecting them.
Regards Chris
I too visited Cuba but was not able to observe as acutely as you, and I was only there less than a week. Housewives standing in the middle of the street gossiping because there's no traffic to watch out for, skinny dogs, gov't officials with "elite" colored license plates on new european sedans trying to run you over in the street, the Castro Channel on TV, etc. I had a "minder" because I think they assumed I was CIA, my team mates got crammed into a tiny room in the Hotel Panamericanos, while I got a suite, basically like a 1-room apartment. I drank Hatueys and soaked off the labels, which I still have. I ate baked chicken in an outdoor cafe you normally had to be a great baseball star or something to go to - said great baseball star was pointed out to me at the next table by my minder lol.
Well! Cuba isn't blockaded by the whole world, just by the US and our lackey states. They also have a very fertile land, and most of the people are just unbelieveably poor. They get aid, and they get US dollars however they can - I know I spent a bunch!
Cuba is an example of how we'll end up living, we also need to look at examples before oil was used and even before coal was used in great quantity. The future is truly Amish.
Speaking of Amish ,
I have this reacurring dream of horses pulling gutted SUV bodies down the street .
Might not be so bad .... just no AC