DrumBeat: December 24, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 24, 2007 - 9:57am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Kunstler: A Christmas Eve Story
The comparison with the American situation is chilling. For all its gross faults, the Russians were ironically better prepared for economic collapse and political turmoil than we will be. For one thing, all housing there was owned by the state, and allocated under bare nominal rents, so when the economy collapsed, people just stayed in their apartments. Nobody got evicted. There was scant private car ownership in pre-1990 Russia, so gasoline allocation problems did not paralyze movement. Train service was excellent and cheap, and the cities all had a rich matrix of underground metros, on-street electric trams, and trolley-buses, which continued to run even when central authority flickered out. There was no suburban sprawl to strand and isolate people (in homes owned by banks, that can be taken away after the third monthly failure to make a mortgage payment). Official Soviet agriculture was such a fiasco for half a century that the Soviet people were long-conditioned to provide for themselves. For decades, 90 percent of the food was coming from tiny household gardens, wherever it was possible to grow stuff. When America's just-in-time supermarket resupply system wobbles, and the Cheez Doodles disappear from the WalMart shelves, few Americans will have a Plan B.
Oil gains on tight U.S. stocks, Mexico port closures
Mexico's transport ministry said the ports of Dos Bocas and Cayo Arcas, both located on the Gulf of Mexico, were shut for the second straight day, while Coatzacoalcos port reopened after being closed Sunday afternoon.
Gas 'manipulation' will push up UK bills
British households should prepare for a rise in energy prices in the New Year because power companies on the Continent are hoarding gas. Consumer group Energywatch warns consumers will be hit despite there being plentiful reserves of gas that could be piped to the UK.
In 2006 I wrote a little op-ed piece for Lew Rockwell about the fallacies of Peak Oil. I asserted that proven oil reserves seem to go up every year in spite of both the warnings that we are running out, and that we are consuming it at an every increasing rate. Let’s Google a little and see what the state of the reserves is at the end of 2007.
As a University of Kansas recruiting piece for its petroleum engineering program points out, many currently practicing PEs are reaching retirement age, even as demand for the profession is skyrocketing. At the same time, a blue-ribbon task force said earlier this year that the energy talent pool has been hit by a two-thirds drop in geoscience enrollment during the 17 years ending in 2000.
Western's Yorktown refinery cuts rates after coker snag
Western Refining cut rates at its 62,000 barrel per day refinery in Yorktown, Virginia after a snag with the coker unit, a company spokesman said Monday.
Kazakhstan: Exxon stalling oil field deal says government
Agreement has been reached with all the consortium members except American oil major Exxon on the terms under which the Kashagan field will be developed, Kazak energy minister Sauat Mynbayev said in a statement on Monday.
Russia may tighten equity deals with large fields
Russia's Resources Ministry will propose easing access to state auctions of large oil, gas or metal deposits by foreign companies but will tighten control over large equity deals, minister Yuri Trutnev said on Monday.Analysts said the measure if approved would bring clarity to rules by which the Kremlin will treat foreign investors who have themselves repeatedly called on Moscow to introduce a legal framework to policies often driven by resource nationalism.
CN Rail buys Alberta's Athabasca Northern Railway
Canadian National Railway Co extended its reach further into Alberta's oil sands region on Monday with a deal to buy and rebuild the struggling Athabasca Northern Railway.
Nigeria: Attack On NNPC Jetty May Lead to Products Scarcity
PETROLEUM and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), has warned that if proper measures are not taken, last week attack on Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Jetting at Okiriama Village in Rivers state, may lead products scarcity and social dislocation in this festive period.The umbrella body for senior oil workers in country lamented that the attack by illegal bunkerers disguising as militants while discharging of products was going on has triggered off fears and apprehension amongst staff of NNPC in the area and other jetties around the zone.
Russian gas exports to Asia-Pacific region could top 50 bln cu m
Gas exports from Russia's Siberian and Far Eastern regions to Asia and Pacific countries could eventually top 50 billion cubic meters, a Gazprom official said on Monday."The issue is being discussed of the supply of natural gas along an eastern route to China. Gas in this direction will go from the Chayanda gas field in Yakutia. An inter-governmental agreement with South Korea has been signed and gas has been contracted for supplies to Japan from the Sakhalin-II project," Deputy Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee Alexander Ananenkov said.
Iran firm on US talks, 19 atomic plants planned
Iran said today it rejected any preconditions for talks with the United States, which suspects it wants an atomic bomb, and a member of parliament was quoted as saying Tehran planned 19 nuclear power plants.
How an oil company invests in the future of education
Claiborne Deming quietly made his hometown a promise this year. All the high school graduates who have been in the El Dorado, Arkansas school system since 9th grade can attend any college in the country on his company's dime. Up to $6-thousand bucks a year. For five years. He's challenged kids to dream big — Harvard, Yale. Public or Private Universities. Doesn't matter.Deming persuaded his company, Murphy Oil, to invest $50-million dollars. Enough to keep his promise to 5-thousand kids for 20 years.
The third rail of world politics
This week in an astounding piece in USA Today, the newspaper told us that U. S. fertility rates had returned to the replacement value of 2.1 (that is, 2.1 births per woman on average) after being below replacement since 1971. This was deemed good because "[a] high fertility rate is important to industrialized nations. When birthrates are low, there are fewer people to fill jobs and support the elderly." Ergo, the low fertility rates of Italy, Germany, Japan, Russia, and South Korea (all mentioned in the article) must be bad. These countries were said to be "struggling with low birthrates and aging populations." In fact, some of these low fertility countries are now providing government incentives for larger families.Within the narrow measures of economic competitiveness and public pension support for the elderly the labels of good and bad might be applicable. But what about the environmental degradation and resource depletion that are resulting from overpopulation in these very same countries? Not a single word!
China’s Growing Economic and Political Power: Effects on the Global South
The Chinese contribution to rising world demand and prices of oil and other hydrocarbons deserves special attention. Internationally, it is the second largest consumer of energy, only after the United States. This is partly because of its enormous economic activity, but also a result of the notorious lack of energy efficiency in the production processes that take place in China. Only two decades ago China was the largest oil exporter of East Asia; these days it is importing massive amounts of oil.
UK: Will the petrol pumps dry up?
Fuel price protesters have warned they will launch more disruptive action next year if the Government refuses to listen to them. Lobby group Transaction 2007 has vowed "2000 is likely to happen all over again" if the Government does not heed their warnings on the rising cost of petrol and diesel.In 2000 lorry drivers blockaded refineries, leading to chronic nationwide fuel shortages. Many garages virtually shut their doors because they had no fuel.
Kenya: Fuel Shortage Looms in Western Region
Petroleum dealers have expressed fears of a fuel shortage ahead of Christmas and Thursday's General Election.Yesterday, sources said the fuel pumped to western Kenya on Friday fell below order, triggering panic that it could ground transport operations.
Nepal: Petro dealers stop buying from NOC
Nepal Petroleum Dealears’ Association (NPDA), the umbrella organisation of petrol entrepreneurs, Monday stopped buying petroleum products from Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) as part of their pressure campaign to resume the smooth supply of gasoline.
Sinopec Qilu plans May, Aug crude unit repairs
Under the plans, a 70,000 barrel per day crude unit is set for 20 days' repairs around May, and another 80,000 bpd crude facility for a one-month shutdown in August, the source close to the plant's operations told Reuters.The maintenance will cut the refinery's throughput for 2008 by about 4 percent versus this year, to around 202,000 bpd, the source said.
Nuclear power to ease electricity shortage
THE largest joint project ever undertaken between China and Russia, the Tianwan nuclear power station on the shores of the Yellow Sea in Lianyungang in East China’s Jiangsu Province, is now producing power.
Pakistan: Cold, dark, uncertain
We do not live in some outstation far from anywhere, but in the suburbs of a medium-sized city. Yet, to look at the preparations we have made in the last week you would think we are preparing for a lengthy siege. Anticipating cuts in the gas supply over coming months we have refurbished the tanoor in the garden and built an open hearth of mud and straw so that we can cook for ourselves, and a stock of firewood has been laid in to fuel the fire. The paraffin stoves have been serviced and had new wicks installed and there are two jerry cans of paraffin stashed under the stairs. Drinking water will periodically be a problem as we have no mains water and pump up groundwater to a rooftop tank — no power equals no water. Twenty bottles of drinking water are in the larder, just in case. Candles, the big fat ones that burn for hours, are stacked on the pantry shelves.
Organic dairies fuel feed frenzy
Clarkson estimated that demand for organic feed is growing 20 percent each year, while U.S. production of organic row crops, such as corn and other feed, is growing only by as much as 4 percent.Add in the "ethanol tsunami" that is encouraging more farmers to grow corn for biofuel rather than feed, he said, and the shortage could continue for organic growers "for a long time."
History comes to light as lake falls
As a record drought continues to take its toll on the lake that supplies more than 3 million residents with water in metro Atlanta, the receding shore line is revealing more than antique beer cans and other assorted garbage.It is also offering a glimpse of how the people who made their homes here decades ago once lived.
An abandoned stretch of Georgia Highway 53 sits along one edge of the lake, consigned to the deep by state planners when Lanier was built. Foundations of long-forgotten buildings dot shorelines. Elsewhere in the vast expanse of exposed lake bed, a still intact one-lane road with faded yellow lines peeks out from the mud.
High oil prices to stifle Gulf crude output in long term
Gulf oil heavyweights are reaping the fruits of strong oil prices in the short term but their crude production could plunge by at least 12 million barrels per day in the long term, according to an official US report.In case oil prices remain above $90 a barrel, the crude oil output of the UAE and neighbouring Gulf producers could be as low as 27.5 million bpd in 2030 but could be as high as 40.9 million bpd in case of low oil prices of around $34 a barrel, said the report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy.
Exxon Pipeline to China Is Blocked
ExxonMobil has been denied permission to start work on a gas pipeline to China from Sakhalin-1 this year, the Industry and Energy Ministry said in a statement on its web site Friday.The government also refused to allow Exxon to invest in drilling oil deposits discovered near the Sakhalin-1 boundaries, the ministry said.
...Gazprom has said it needs gas from Sakhalin-1 for domestic consumption.
Iraq warns South Korea against Kurdish region oil exploration
SEOUL, Dec. 24 (Xinhua) -- Iraq has issued a warning, saying that it may cut off oil exports to South Korea unless South Korean energy companies halt oil exploration in the Kurdish region, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on Monday.
Africom and the new scramble for Africa
The recent unveiling of Africom by the Bush administration is the clearest indicator yet of the military establishment’s continued ascendancy over the State Department in formulation and implementation of foreign policy, a trajectory that began soon after the conclusion of World War II.The great contradiction within this trajectory is that as modern military establishments become more technological and exert greater political influence, they become less relevant to modern warfare as can be seen in Iraq, where a $3 million tank proves to be tactically worthless against a $15 IED (improvised explosive devise).
Uncertainty keeps coal prices high
Coal prices are likely to remain strong next year, close to this year's average levels, because there are many supply uncertainties despite the emergence of the United States as a major exporter.Coal prices surged to record highs this year after a shift from historically abundant supply to tightness due to a leap in Chinese demand, which prompted a cut in its exports.
Russia: Companies guilty of wasting gas to face fines
The government is calling on oil companies to utilise more of the gas produced as a by-product of oil extraction - usually called associated gas. It wants the industry to reduce flaring - or burning off waste gas - and to increase its use by more than 90% over the next three years.
Small oil firm gambles on Arctic
The North Slope accounts for about 14 percent of U.S. domestic output, but its production -- which stands at about 740,000 barrels per day -- is declining about 6 percent a year.Oooguruk's projected yield of 20,000 barrels a day won't solve the North Slope's production decline, but analysts and industry executives say Pioneer's work cannot be underestimated as it's designed to produce oil for up to 25 years.
As larger basins of oil and natural gas become harder to find, oil companies are looking to places considered out of reach 10 years ago such as the Arctic Ocean and greater depths in the Gulf of Mexico.
Haiti seeking Chevron's help to import Venezuelan fuel
Haiti is seeking a contract with Chevron Corp. to ship Venezuelan oil purchased under President Hugo Chavez's discount fuel program, a government official said Sunday.Haiti joined Chavez's Petrocaribe initiative more than a year ago, but has been unable to transport or receive any oil shipments so far, said Michael Lecorps, director of the aid management office in charge of implementing the program.
Dubai Crude to Be Traded at $77 Next Year
Dubai crude, a benchmark for Asian refiners, will likely be traded at an average price of $77.50 (roughly 72,811 won) per barrel next year, though the price could sporadically surge beyond the $100 mark, according to the country’s state-run oil firm Monday.
Loss of sea ice could harm walrus
Federal marine mammal experts in Alaska studying the effects of global warming on walrus, polar bears and ice seals warn there are limit to the protections they can provide.They can restrict hunters, ship traffic and offshore petroleum activity, but that may not be enough if the animals' basic habitat — sea ice — disappears every summer.
`Drilling up' into space for energy
While great nations fretted over coal, oil and global warming, one of the smallest at the U.N. climate conference was looking toward the heavens for its energy.The annual meeting's corridors can be a sounding board for unlikely "solutions" to climate change — from filling the skies with soot to block the sun, to cultivating oceans of seaweed to absorb the atmosphere's heat-trapping carbon dioxide.
Unlike other ideas, however, one this year had an influential backer, the Pentagon, which is investigating whether space-based solar power — beaming energy down from satellites — will provide "affordable, clean, safe, reliable, sustainable and expandable energy for mankind."
A Yuletide Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada.
With economic uncertainty steadily increasing as 2008 approaches, we would like to offer best hopes for peace and a Merry Christmas to all our readers.
Pain Street USA: '08 housing outlook
The forecast is for a longer, deeper home-price slump than previously expected, with double-digit declines in many markets.
From a tip, and up for discussion:
"Wamu to exit wholesale JAN 1. Was told by another LO that the word was leaked from a Rep and he was fired the next day. They keep asking for new rep and WAMU keeps blowing them off."
We know that Chase is interested in a western footprint, and WaMu (the largest U.S. savings and loan) is trading at almost rock bottom. If CW announces Jan. 1 they are OUT of wholesale, coupled with the WaMu $783 million downgrades issued tonight by Fitch, doesn't it look more and more like WaMu is done?
And, as quoted by Bloombu(e)rg, "Washington Mutual also plans to close WaMu Capital Corp., its broker-dealer business, as well as its mortgage banker warehouse lending unit." Regardless, we understand that WaMu has to spread $10 billion in mortgage-related write-offs in 2008, killing profits in every quarter.
http://implode-explode.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=25576#25576
Hard to say. I just rode from N CA to Phoenix following the scenic route through the Inland Empire and it looked to me that WaMu has a lot of exposure in what may be the worst area in the country as far as RE next to FL.
On the other side the big players that clean house early may have the best chance of survival.
What's their exposure to CC defaults?
What's their exposure to CRE ?
What's their exposure to HELOC's?
That's the kind of thing that will also leave big marks.
They all are making a big mistake by not withdrawing credit lines from the riskiest customers and areas. With CRE they are stuck contractually.
Yeah, Moody's - the guys that rated everything AAA until it blew up. Not that I disagree, but after their recent prognostication performance record I'd expect them to be hiding under the couch for a while longer. And to a tenth of a percent two years on no less. Bizarre.
Merry Christmas.
The following are the average annual price increases of crude and mogas per the EIA weekly Friday closings,
Using 53 weeks or the closest 371 days
2003 Crude up $04.9 @ $31.2 Mogas up 31 cents @ $1.560
2004 Crude up $10.3 @ $41.5 Mogas up 29 cents @ $1.850
2005 Crude up $14.3 @ $56.8 Mogas up 42 cents @ $2.270
2006 Crude up $09.2 @ $66.0 Mogas up 20 cents @ $257.0
2007 Crude up $06.9 @ $72.9 Mogas up 29 cents @ $2.805
2007 is projected using 3 future data points at $91.3 & $3.00
Looking at these increases holding a $95 avg for 08 would be a $23 increase and for gas 3 cents per $ would be a 69 cent increase to $3.50. IMO not likely.
my money says this indicates the peak in 2005, people expected BAU and oil did not cheapen, afterwards growth has been slowing down and next year we may expect to see an average ranging between 75-85 with the slowing world economy growth.
Note also that Aug/Sep 05 was the start of Corporate defaults
and committees set up with names like:
Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group II
NEW YORK, July 27, 2005 - The Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group today released its report entitled: "Toward Greater Financial Stability: A Private ...
www.crmpolicygroup.org/press-release.html - 7k
If we did peak in 2005 (which I agree seems likely for 'net exports' at least) then the world economy almost certainly can't grow whatever price the oil is!
...or how much paper/electronic "liquidity" is added to the system!!
Both you and xeroid are correct.
"...then the world economy almost certainly can't grow whatever price the oil is!"
and
"...paper/electronic "liquidity" is added to the system!!"
instead of "added", insert "monetized".
Like the declining Spanish Empire monetizing taxes out
100 years in order to secure immediate funding.
Same with oil. All value out to "x" years has
been monetized into $1000 trillion of derivatives.
All "energy" on the planet has been mortgaged.
"When the money flows into palaces or military or eating and then throwing up like in Ancient Rome, when it becomes empire building and not building a healthy social base, it 'dries up' rapidly. This is a harsh lesson. The British Empire, when it discovered the secrets of capitalism, proceeded to prevent any money flowing to the working class, they tried as hard as possible to prevent even 1% of the profits going to the workers! This nearly destroyed the British empire. The pathetic condition of the workers was so dire, they could barely fight off invaders. Germany was just as bad off until Bismark figured out that starving workers make lousy soldiers. So he created a social security system just so he could attack Britain."-ElaineSupkis
There can be no more "growth" now, because
we have no more FREE energy.
wrong, by making better use of oil gdp can rise, but only at the pace of technology improvements. (or coal/nuclear whatever power increases)
The Pentagon needs some adult supervision. First we go running off and waste 8x the dollars needed for rail electrification in Iraq and now they want another undeliverable suction pump attached to the treasury.
The unwinding of the massive mortgage scam is going to hurt, but at least we won't have to put up with such foolish distractions. That particular horizon can not recede quickly enough to suit me.
George Bush never cut taxes, he just deferred 'em a bit. May they tax the stuffing out of gasoline and diesel starting 1/20/2009 ...
Hmmm...I dunno. Bill Clinton once tried "taxing the stuffing" out of vehicle fuel. Well, no, actually he didn't, he just proposed an itsy bitsy 7-cent-a-gallon tax. And that was all it took to give a huge boost to Newt Gingrich and company, as many Congresscritters got great credit from John Q. Public for saving the world by trimming the tax from 7 cents to (IIRC) 4.3.
I wonder whether it wouldn't happen again - after all, the way to insanity would be to repeat the behavior and expect different results. Just sayin', ya know.
Let's see... what was the price of gas when Clinton proposed the tax? $1.20/gal or so?
These days, the Dems can probably get a lot of mileage out of the evil-greedy-oil-company story, whether there's any truth in it or not.
When Exxon has made billions in profits due to the run up in oil prices and can give Lee Raymond their former CEO a $400 million retirement package, I would say that the oil companies have done quite well recently.
One of the things that really irks me about our military misadventures in Iraq and Afganistan is that one seldom hears much complaint about the cost of the war in dollars.
You hear people talk about what a shame it is that thousands of US troops have been killed and maimed; you hear complaints about the lack of progress after almost five years of occupation in Iraq; but you don't hear much about the roughly half trillion dollars that have been spent thus far and what could have been accomplished here at home with but a fraction of that amount.
I think the reason is that the war has so far not cost the average person a red cent ...... for now. Taxes have not been raised to pay for the war, and the war is essentially being financed with plastic - to be paid for at some indefinite later date (if paid for at all). As far as I can tell, few people seem to care. I may be out of touch, but to me a half trillion dollars is not chump change.
That half trillion dollars had to have gone somewhere, and it would be interesting to see a rough breakdown of the major expenditures. Most of this money has by now made its way through the US economy in one way or another, and it would be interesting to see where it has gone.
It's like defense dollars are an entirely different sort of currency than regular dollars, in that billions of dollars are thrown around like they were nickels. I personally know of an incident many years ago in which some Air Force one-star general was in charge of some large weapons program. One of his subordinates approached him with his analysis that a certain facet of the program was being overcharged by about $5million and asked what should be done about it. The general chewed out the subordinate and snarled, "Five million dollars ain't worth five minutes of my time!" That, I think, is a perfect illustration of the DOD mentality at work.
So, I don't think the US has a prayer of getting out of the energy hole it has been digging for itself until its military spending has been seriously reigned in. Right now, the US government has no qualms whatsoever about spending a billion dollars on a missile frigate but would never dream of spending the same amount on susbsidizing a large offshore wind farm. Our priorities are seriously out of whack and show little sign of being reoriented.
I also cringe at the cost of the war. Most all of the money spent on the war is paid by the government into the hands of other Americans. Troops get extra pay for combat duty, defense contractors get higher sales, etc. It's not like we stuff the money into a cannon and shoot it off into the air. Because our fuel costs are high, some of the money spent on the war pays for oil, so most of that money leaves the U.S.
From the stories I've read about huge bundles of money airlifted to Iraq and then gone 'unaccounted for' this is actually a pretty good description of what we are doing with probably the major percentage of money going to Iraq.
LOL ..
Helicopter Ben can 'airdrop' some bucks on me ..
Where do I send my coordinates ??
Triff ..
ET -
In some instances it is probably even worse than stuffing the money into a cannon and shooting it into the air. Very likely a good chunk of that money has gone into the pockets or various war lords, black marketeers, weapons smugglers, etc., none of which have any love for the US.
So, it appears that what we have here is the transfer of some unknown billions of dollars from American taxpayers (or perhaps more accutrately, future American taxpayers) to the international weapons black market, a major soruce of materiel for those who wish the US ill. Good job, Rummy!
Yeah, well you know you gotta go to war with the financial management capabilities you have, not the financial management capabilities you wish you had..... or some such nonsense.
You nailed it. War is a program of income redistribution. How we pay for a war and who we pay says a lot about the true intentions of the people in charge of the war.
Much of World War II was paid with war bonds, which were sold to ordinary citizens with a rather poor rate of return. The contractors and their Congressmen, not yet skilled in the art of defense pork, produced excellent bang for the buck. The best fighter plane we had, the Mustang, cost $50,000 a copy, maybe a million current $. All this meant that money at low interest rates was transferred to contractors who actually made reasonable profits and made useful weapons, then was repaid by the government, at a loss after inflation, to Americans of every class. On top of that the government exacted extremely high tax rates, up to a marginal 99%, on the rich, including many who profited from the war. Final and intended result: no polarization of wealth despite a massive economic expansion.
Compare this to how the last phase of the Cold War was financed. T-bills, at very high nominal interest rates, were sold mostly to the rich at the very moment when Volcker was collapsing inflation. Result: insanely high rates of return for a safe investment. Taxes were cut on the rich at the same time, while many of the companies they held stock in, thanks to bought-up Congressmen, made out like bandits making freak boutique weapons for "winnable nuclear war". Final and intended result: massive polarization of wealth. Just part of a larger policy agenda.
It is not surprising that the latter model was used to finance the current wars and produce the same result. This time, though, the contractors are often foreign firms that have to build weapons in the US to keep Congress happy, though they try to sneak in Chinese parts to pad profits. The rewards go to a global class of businessmen who keep their own governments supporting absurd American crusades against the will of their own taxpayers.
There's No Business Like War Business
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0403-01.htm
Peace on Earth and Good Will Towards Men.
“the continuous consolidation of money and power into higher, tighter and righter hands”. -bushonomics
Which is exactly the wrong thing to do.
And we will pay for the War of Terror the instant
we give up.
See 1973-75 for details of Coming Attractions.
The only difference: Viet Nam was tactical. Iraq is strategic.
Hi Barbara (?)
re: "The only difference: Viet Nam was tactical. Iraq is strategic."
Could you possibly explain this a little further?
Jimmie here 8D
re: "The only difference: Viet Nam was tactical. Iraq is strategic."
Could you possibly explain this a little further?
Love to:
In short, we could pull out of VN and survive the
resulting collapse of our authority,$, and colonies.
We were able to reacquire them by 85 but at cost.
Now if we pull out of Iraq, we'll lose everything to China, Russia India, Iran.
I can argue that the US itself might fracture.
The first link is a "we're noble blunderers".
http://pages.prodigy.net/krtq73aa/iraq.htm
"A policy that calls for a protracted American presence in Iraq, and for the expenditure of substantial American assets in the primary interest of Iraqis, might be legitimate under a monarchy, where the Government was neither the result, nor strictly limited by the confines, of a written Constitution; (though it would be no wiser, even were that Government not faced with record budget deficits). But America is not a monarchy, and the President is not our King; and there is no provision under our written Republican Constitution for such an adventure. Moreover, even if one could contrive a verbal argument that some provision might implicitly authorize such activity--and we have yet to hear anyone seriously attempt to do so--the longer term involvement, envisioned, would still not pass muster under the broad provisions which require that Federal action be directed towards the "Common Defense" and/or "General Welfare" of the people of the United States."
The second, here, is that we've run out of options
for maintaining our global hegemony.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0419-11.htm
"Still deeper in meaning is the strategic context of the two wars. Both wars were fought in the vanguard of grand U.S. strategy. In Vietnam, the strategy was “Containment,” George Kennan’s famous formula for stopping the Soviet Union from expanding its empire. Eisenhower’s overwrought and ultimately disproved version had dominoes falling from Laos and Cambodia, on to Thailand and Burma, all the way to India.
In Iraq, the grand strategy is global hegemony. It is the neo-conservatives’ vision of the once-in-a-millennium chance to dominate the world. With the Cold War ended and no plausible military challenger in sight, such a chance must not be let to pass, certainly not for want of sufficient “manhood”. Iraq is simply the first tactical step in this vision, the basis for controlling the world’s oil and, thereby, the US’s strategic competitors. This is the reason the Pentagon plans to leave 14 military bases in the country indefinitely—to project military power throughout the Persian Gulf, site of 55% of the world’s oil.
Hi, mcgowanmc, (Jimmie?),
Sorry if I got you mixed up w. someone else, and thanks for your reply.
I heard a talk back in 2001 on C. Rice's idea of "containment strategy" which seemed to be a different (I guess I'd label it "more insane") version of the idea of containing the (former) SU.
re: "Now if we pull out of Iraq, we'll lose everything to China, Russia India, Iran."
So, what's your take on the current situation?
It's a matter, then, of attempting (having attempted) hegemony and thus destroying even the survival of the US?
What's the "everything"?
All access to oil?
Access on our (quote "our") terms?
Given situations such as the following:
China being the location of most (percentage?) US-purchased goods;
international "trade" (or whatever it is);
corporate lack of localization, (or let me try again): ease of movement of corporate activity and capital around the world, seemingly w/out regard for national borders (including national policies, and/or taxes);
And so forth...
When we have what amounts to essentially "stateless" corporations, is there any sense in which hegemony is tied to *any* geographical area, let alone nation?
Is it even really, in the final analysis, tied to the control of oil?
That would be question number one. In other words, it all seems kind of crazy to start with.
Understandable, perhaps, in this sense: Argument as follows: Given "peak oil" and the not unlikely prospect of global economic collapse, the benevolent "we" had better control oil, thus to prevent/(or) minimize the suffering that might take place were someone else to control it, and possible exacerbate the collapse. (I mean, arrogant, but there's a certain kind of logic there, perhaps.)
The thing is, though, given the way the production/shipment of goods (including food) has been arranged for, say, the last two decades (AKA "globalization") - does hegemony (including event the control of oil) really have the same meaning?
Second: Do "they" (hegemonic planners) - or did they - take into account any kind of scenario of how cost enters into military action? by "cost", I mean energy and oil cost, (in this case).
Lots of ? marks there, Aniya. 8D
Instead of oil, think free energy.
Energy that has not been spoken for.
That's PO. When all energy as far as the eye can see has been monetized.
Once that happens, no more debt can be created.
But debt creation is how the US has been operating since either 1985
or more extreme interpretation 1974.
World money flow has changed since 71707.
China is now ascending, with Russia in train.
Iran is the stalking Kitty.
See Elaine Supkis, James Kunstler, TOD's Leanan/WestTexas
for details.
Watch Pakistan:
9. To: The Leadpenny (#8)
Fasten your seat belts
Several things that won't be talked about today.
Now, a new agreement, reported when it was still being negotiated last month, has been finalised. And the first US personnel could be on the ground in Pakistan by early in the new year, according to Pentagon sources. US Central Command Commander Adm William Fallon alluded to the agreement and spoke approvingly of Pakistan’s recent counter-terrorism efforts in a recent interview.
A report on the investigation into Rashid Rauf's escape last Saturday was expected to be submitted to the government Thursday. The Dawn newspaper said the report called it a case of "criminal collusion." The escape has been an embarrassment for President Pervez Musharraf's government.
In letters to the Northern Areas Council chairman and chief ministers of the four provinces, Soomro ordered illegal trade to be brought to an end. He also urged for strict action to be taken against officials and heavy penalties imposed on the individuals and timber merchants involved in the illegal cutting of trees.
Soomro, in another directive to the provincial governments, reiterated that strict action should also be taken against wheat hoarders and smugglers to ensure availability of wheat and flour to the common man at reasonable rates.
In a statement senator Javaid Laghari said that power shortage, which averaged at 2500 MW in 2007, will increase to over 3000 MW in January 2008 due to the already declined supplies of water, gas and oil, which are the main drivers of electricity in Pakistan.
As the demand for power will rise further as summer months approach, the nation should brace itself to bear further load shedding with power shortage rising to over 6000 MW causing over three hours of load shedding in the cities and over four to six in the rural areas, while some parts of the country may not see power for up to twelve hours at a stretch.
Pakistan is the nexus.
mcgowanjm
Hi Jimmie,
Thanks and it seems you're more than a little prophetic here.
What else do you know? :)
And what about the question posed elsewhere on whether "the Asian market" can supply enough consumers (enough to take the place occupied by US consumers)?
That "half a trillion" estimate is poppycock! It only counts the direct costs, and it's just the number that the MSM and their corporate overlords found politically acceptable.
According to defense expert Milton Copulos of the National Defense Council Foundation, the real costs are far larger. Here's a short excerpt from my forthcoming book on peak oil and investing in energy, Profit from the Peak:
Selected sources:
Pentagon study says oil reliance strains military
The Hidden Cost of Our Oil Dependence
--C
our military ... hears much complaint about the cost of ... in dollars.
Plenty of places - but it is not a pleasant conversation, nor is it one where you can change anyones mind. A lot of 'preaching to the choir' really.
Go ahead, talk to a die-hard pro-war'er. You can get 'em to say 'yes it is a lot of money' - then the follow up is all about how such spending is necessary to prevent/save/whatever rational one wants to use.
Right now, the US government has no qualms whatsoever about spending a billion dollars on a missile frigate but would never dream of spending the same amount on susbsidizing a large offshore wind farm.
Well, who's pockets get lined with the present arrangement VS the alternative arragement?