DrumBeat: December 27, 2007
Posted by Leanan on December 27, 2007 - 9:56am
Topic: Miscellaneous
$30 billion - Price in '07 for natural disasters
Losses to insurers from natural disasters nearly doubled this year to just below $30 billion globally after an unusually quiet 2006, a leading reinsurer said Thursday.Munich Re warned that climate change could mean a growing number of weather-related catastrophes in coming years.
"The trend in respect of weather extremes shows that climate change is already taking effect and that more such extremes are to be expected in the future," board member Torsten Jeworrek said in a statement. "We should not be misled by the absence of megacatastrophes in 2007."
It is odd when emergency measures to unblock financial markets provide a reason to pile into commodities. When oil bulls are not showing touching faith in the Federal Reserve's powers of intervention, they are instead warning of impending "peak oil" production. Peak oil theories, however, tend to negate the impact of technology and pricing on output and consumption. And while the industrialised world's oil inventories have fallen this year, to just under 53 days, demand cover remains higher than in late 2005, when hurricanes really disrupted supply.
BP to review plans for Alaska after big tax increase
"This massive tax increase will weaken investment in Alaska's oil fields at the very time that more investment is needed," Doug Suttles, the president of BP Exploration Alaska, said in e-mailed comments. "We will now review all our planned activities."
Interview with New York Times Bestselling Author Steve Alten
GW: My father-in-law says that people predicted Peak Oil decades ago, and were proven wrong. Does the discovery of the massive new oil reserve in Brazil change your conviction that Peak Oil is upon us?SA: Unless it is as big as Ghawar ... no. Oil IS running out. If not, do you seriously believe we'd have invaded Iraq?
Experts Urge Policy-Makers, Industry to Develop New Energy Sources, Technology
At a unique panel discussion bringing together an oil and science policy expert, AAAS Board Chair John Holdren and ExxonMobil executive Lori Ryerkerk broadly urged policy makers and industry to increase research into breakthrough technologies to meet the global demand for affordable and reliable energy while reducing environmental impacts.Though they came from vastly different perspectives, the speakers agreed that there must be significant investment into new energy-supply technologies and improved energy efficiency in transport, buildings, and industry in order for countries to meet their growing needs for energy services while limiting the impact of energy use on the environment.
How Does One Invest for Inflation and Deflation?
Regardless of what happens to base metals or treasuries, peak oil just might keep energy prices high. Thus there are additional reasons to be bullish on energy regardless of the inflation/deflation debate.
It takes some 40,000 lbs. of minerals/per person in the United States to maintain our standard of living each year, according to the Mineral Information Institute. This would include everything from stone, sand & gravel, zinc, natural gas, etc., etc.The long and short of it is that it's simply unsustainable. These are finite resources. No, we're not going to be mining asteroids any time soon, nor will the trashing of an ice-free Arctic be our consumption salvation. We've heard of "peak oil" these past several years, but there is also peak "minerals."
PetroChina unit to get $2.2 bln for gas pipeline
PetroChina said on Thursday that the group's oil and gas exploration arm would receive a 16 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) injection to help it build a natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China.
Limited oil leakage at Burgan oil field under control -- KOC
Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) said on Thursday it controlled a limited oil leakage that occurred in the gathering center No. 2 in the Burgan oil field east of Kuwait and dealt with it without any losses.
Gazprom says agrees 2008 gas price with Uzbekistan
Russia's gas export monopoly Gazprom has agreed on 2008 gas import prices with Uzbekistan, the firm said on Thursday, effectively removing the last obstacle for smooth supplies from Central Asia next year.
Dust to dust? More ask for eco-friendly funerals
Cynthia Beal wants to be an Oregon cherry tree after she dies. She has everything to make it happen — a body, a burial site and a biodegradable coffin.“It is composting at its best,” said Beal, owner of The Natural Burial Company, which will sell a variety of eco-friendly burial products when it opens in January, including the Ecopod, a kayak-shaped coffin made out of recycled newspapers.
BP chief economist expects oil companies' profits to decline in 2008 on costs
BP's chief economist Christof Ruehl said he expects oil companies' profits to decline next year from this year as costs balloon, according to Financial Times Deutschland.Some 90 pct of crude oil and gas resources are currently in the hands of state-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, it said.
'When oil prices are high, it is relatively easy for state-owned companies to work profitably,' Ruehl told the newspaper in an interview, adding these companies then have no interest in sharing the burden of oil production with the private sector.
In Russian energy plan, coal is a question mark
So even if Gazprom embarked on a major investment program instead of investing in newspapers, ski resorts and other unrelated expensive energy projects, there would still be a time lag before the natural gas reaches the transmission pipelines. That may explain why, in his quest for more energy resources, Putin is now seriously considering raising coal production. The plan, still under intense discussion, entails using coal increasingly for domestic consumption as well as exports so as to relieve the pressure on the demand for natural gas both inside Russia and outside it.
World oil prices to remain high in 2008 - analysts
Oil prices of near $100 per barrel caused alarm in consuming countries in 2007 and analysts see another tense crude market next year with triple-figure records a real prospect.Despite a murky outlook for the world economy, crude prices are seen settling at elevated levels, spelling more pain for consumers and a steady flow of petrodollars for the world's oil exporters.
An uneasy calm returned to the oil-rich Persian Gulf island nation of Bahrain on Wednesday after a week of clashes between Shiite Muslim opposition groups and forces of the Sunni-dominated government.The street fighting, sparked by the death of an activist, was some of the worst since a 1990s Shiite uprising and led to an undetermined number of injured and the arrest of dozens.
Cuba: 2007, a good year for oil
For the third time, Cuba’s oil production will reach 4 million tons this year, which it has not done since 2003, and which is particularly important now given the fact that the price of crude on the international market is more than $90 per barrel.
FAL Oil buys Venezuela cargo in rare Mideast move
"This is the first time we have seen these Venezuelan cargoes going elsewhere besides China, and we're still wondering what the logic would be for them to take such a large cargo into Fujairah," a Singapore-based fuel oil trader said.Venezuelan grade fuel oil, typically 380-cst grade and with a high metals content, is normally funnelled into China's bunker fuel market, as well as blended with off-specification diesel to make utility grade cargoes.
Australia: How fuel companies raked in an extra $3.5 million
Petrol users were pumped for more money at the bowser this week when the big fuel suppliers abandoned their expected weekly price drops, but for those filling up with diesel it’s the same old story.
Russia to press ahead with Siberian oil pipe construction
Russia has no plans to drop construction of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, a deputy foreign minister said on Thursday.The ambitious East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline is slated to pump up to 1.6 million barrels per day of crude from Siberia to Russia's Far East and then onto China and the Asia-Pacific region. The project's first leg, estimated at $11 billion, is expected to be commissioned in December 2008.
However, unofficial reports said the commissioning could be delayed for six months.
THREE Carlisle filling stations were closed this morning after running out of fuel.But one of them – Shell at Hardwicke Circus – was back in business by 11am after receiving a delivery and the others, Esso outlets at London and Currock Roads, were also expected to be operating normally later today.
The News & Star understands that the shortages have been due to increased demand from customers over the Christmas period.
IRAQ: Saddam Provided More Food Than the U.S.
The Iraqi government announcement that monthly food rations will be cut by half has left many Iraqis asking how they can survive.The government also wants to reduce the number of people depending on the rationing system by five million by June 2008.
Michigan: Out of the city ground and into the tank
With the holidays upon us, most people will be filling up their vehicles at the gas pumps before traveling to family gatherings.Although many would be quick to assume their fuel is coming from the Middle East, some could be coming from much closer to home.
North Dakota: State refinery isn't realistic
The argument that building a state-run refinery is analogous to the state's ownership of the mill and elevator in Grand Forks is interesting but ultimately weak. Producing and marketing flour is, in terms of complexity and risk, a light year away from refining petroleum and plunging into the volatile fuel marketing business.
EU's Green Energy Plans Take Shape
New EU legislation aimed at having green energy account for 20 percent of the union's overall energy consumption by 2020 is taking concrete shape, with draft proposals indicating that each EU state should contribute at least 5.75 percent to an overall target. Rich member states will carry a heavier burden, however.
Facing the Facts about Climate Change: Either we bury capitalism or capitalism will bury us
Within Europe, it has become too easy to blame the U.S. and others for failing to address the realities of climate change. In fact, European countries appear to take on a hypocritical and condescending role when it comes to environmental issues. Germany is a prime example. On the one hand, its environmental record is impressive: it is home to the first Green Party to ever govern in a national coalition of a G8 nation and it has also reduced its greenhouse gas emissions significantly in recent years. Germany also heavily sponsors renewable energy production and has invested in the refurbishment of ageing factories.Yet even for Germany there are limits. For instance, recent measures proposed by the European Commission to reduce the C02 output of vehicles have come under criticism by the powerful German automobile lobby. As with the U.S. and other western countries, there are fears that the German economy could fail under stiff targets.
A clear picture of China's energy problem
In releasing their first position paper on energy, mainland leaders have been brutally honest. They acknowledge the economy will need ever-increasing quantities of oil, gas and coal so that growth can continue and that huge problems lie ahead in trying to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Emirates' growth could make it world's largest airline
At a time when many airlines around the world are feeling the pinch of high fuel prices and a declining dollar, Emirates expects to top $1 billion in profits in the fiscal year ending March 31 on revenues of $8.1 billion. That would represent an 18.5% increase over the first year's figure of US$844 million.This is partly due to the currency peg between the UAE's dirham and the U.S. dollar. Emirates reports in dirhams but a large proportion of its earnings is in euros and pounds sterling, and the dollar's slide "actually makes us look good," Clark noted.
Virgin Blue ups fuel surcharge by $10 a return trip
FLYING with Virgin Blue will cost more in the New Year with the cut-price airline announcing a jump in its fuel surcharge.
Flat-screen TVs devour electricity, jack up energy bills
Consider that a 42-inch plasma set can consume more electricity than a full-sized refrigerator - even when that TV is used only a few hours a day. Powering a fancy TV and full-on entertainment system - with set-top boxes, game consoles, speakers, DVDs and digital video recorders - can add nearly $200 to a family's annual energy bill.
Oil watchdog reworks reserves forecasts
Alongside a plan to build a new set of data for the decline in production rates in the world’s top 250 oilfields, the IEA is also ready to reassess its own forecasts for projected oil discoveries, which it based on estimates by the US Geological Survey.Any downward revisions in oil discoveries or upward revisions to decline rates will in theory increase the probability that global oil reserves will be smaller than expected and that global oil supply will peak much sooner than expected.
Of GCC state oil companies and geopolitics
GEOPOLITICS has shaped the creation, operations and worldview of Middle East owned oil companies ever since the earliest regional oil strikes in Dammam, Persia’s Masjid Suleiman and Kirkuk in the 1930s. Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum, National Iran Oil Company (NIOC), Algeria’s Sonatrach and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC own 600 billion barrels of crude oil, half the world’s proven reserves.Qatargas operates the world’s largest LNG export terminal and owns the world’s third largest offshore oil reserves after Russia and Iran. Middle East oil colossi will determine both the future of the oil and gas markets but also profoundly shape the region’s international relations.
Many economists have written about the critical role that private-property rights play in building wealth in developing countries. But few have bothered to underscore the importance of private ownership of mineral rights.With oil prices now hovering near $100 per barrel, it’s long past time for economists to recognize that state control of mineral rights breeds corruption, enriches the kleptocratic regimes that rule most petrostates, and prevents enormous quantities of oil and natural gas from ever reaching the market.
Asia Fuel Oil - Up; but in deep discount on low demand
Asian fuel oil prices rose on Thursday, prompted by aggressive buying seen in futures trade, but the physical cash markets continued to reflect the overall lacklustre demand.
THE WORLD is in an energy crisis. Over the past two years that crisis has spilled over into a global food crisis.
Indonesia - Alternative energy: Now or never!
the world is racing to develop alternative energy, whether derived from hydrocarbon resources or renewable resources, in the hope of overcoming the energy crisis and environmental challenges, and also to help ease demand for oil and eventually lower the price of oil.And Indonesia does not want to be left behind in this global movement.
Pakistan authorities to enforce 4-hr power cut countrywide
Pakistani authorities have decided to enforce a daily four-hour power cut across the country with the peak hour shortage of electricity rising to over 2,000 MW, which is 20 per cent of the total demand of 10,000 MW.The Pakistan Electric Power Company has blamed the shortage, unprecedented for winter, on the low release of water from dams and suspension of gas supplies to power units. Officials said they feared the situation would persist over the next few weeks and might deteriorate further.
Paying £1 for a litre - unthinkable not so long ago - is now the reality.So what does 2008 hold? Could we see prices continue to accelerate up to £2 a litre?
Nepal increases gasoline price by 10 percent
Nepal's government raised the price of gasoline by 10 percent on Thursday just two months after it increased kerosene, cooking oil and diesel fuel prices.
Russia: Prices to Be Beyond Control Next Year
The prices will climb more than 10 percent in 2008, analysts of Interfax.ru forecast, explaining that the time-delay bomb has been put this year and the surge in fuel prices and freezing prices for certain food products are the explosives. Wholesalers changed the price tags in November, signaling the price increase will reach stores early in the year.
Digital Trends: Predictions for 2008
Green technology will gather in significance: Crude oil topped $99 in 2007. A looming energy crisis may prove to be the defining event of the next few generations (of people, not just products). If the top brands like Sony and Panasonic want to continue the growth in big-screen television, they’ll have to make sets far more energy-efficient. I continue to believe in the future of chip-based amplifiers, and in 2007, I actually bought the Sonic Impact Super T for my kitchen system. Someday it may be the only amp I use. 2008-09 will signal the high water mark of mega trade shows like CES and CEDIA — in the future, the cost of shipping all those people and products around the country may become prohibitive. Gizmo manufacturing, like food production, may have to become less global and more local.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Storm of the Century
Commentary on what is about to befall us is becoming scarier with each passing day. Learned professors are writing in the New York Times that our financial system is in danger of coming unglued. The general thesis is that America’s financial institutions are only capitalized at $1.1 trillion yet they are supporting $11 trillion worth of mortgages. Home prices are going to have to fall by 30-50 percent before most people can afford to buy homes again. When this drop in housing value is over, some 20 million homes will be mortgaged for far more than they are worth and a fair portion is likely to be abandoned. Some think the banking system is in for some very hard times. Others have dubbed the burgeoning financial crisis “peak money.”But there is more: global warming seems to be causing unprecedented droughts and glacial melting which in turn are leading to lower food production and empty reservoirs and a substantial drop in hydro-electric production around the world.
Welcome to “peak climate,” “peak food,” “peak water,” “peak electricity,” or as some people are putting it, “peak everything.”
Pakistan's Bhutto assassinated
Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday in a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others at a campaign rally, a party aide and a military official said."At 6:16 p.m. she expired," said Wasif Ali Khan, a member of Bhutto's party who was at Rawalpindi General Hospital where she was taken after the attack.
If the foreign operators of Russia's Sakhalin-1 natural gas field weren’t concerned enough after BP was ousted from a major venture over the summer, then Thursday's comments by a senior Gazprom executive should certainly have them reaching for the vodka.Gazprom Deputy Chairman Alexander Ananenkov lambasted the operators of Sakhalin-1, arguing that a handover of control to them had led to an "infringement of Russia's national interests," and had turned Russian consumers into "poor relations who see their gas siphoned off."
A casino economy has allowed corporations and their owners to multiply their wealth without limit, and without any relationship to the real world. Yet this hungry money then seeks to own the real resources of people – the land and the forests, the farms and the food, and turn them into cash. Unless we return to the real world, we will not find the solutions that will help mitigate climate change.
Nippon Oil sells emergency oil reserves option to NZ
Japan's top oil refiner Nippon Oil Corp has become the first Japanese company to sign a contract with New Zealand, which would give the country the option to purchase petroleum in the event of an emergency, the company said on Thursday.
Nigeria: Country Produced 65 Million Barrel of Crude Oil in Oct
Nigeria's crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at 2.12 million barrels per day (mbd) or 65.72 million barrels in October, compared with 2.10 mbd in September.This was contained in the Central Bank of Nigeria economic report for the month of October.
Thailand wants to buy gas from Indonesia
Thailand wanted to buy gas from oil-and-gas field Natuna in Indonesia, Indonesian Minister of Mines and Energy Purnomo Yusgfiantoro said Thursday.
China promises fair play in its energy policy
China pledged Wednesday that its worldwide search for oil and gas to power a booming economy will be carried out in a spirit of fair play and international cooperation so as not to disrupt sensitive international markets.The promise came in a government white paper, one of a series Beijing has issued in recent years to present its case to the world.
Plans for at least 8 clean coal plants hit snags
At least eight clean coal plants, more than a third of those on the drawing board, have been canceled, delayed or rejected by regulators this year. Developers cite soaring construction costs, technology hurdles and uncertainty about regulation of greenhouse gases.
Tech could reduce coal facilities' emissions
Unlike conventional coal-fired power plants, often called "pulverized" coal plants because they crush coal to a powder before burning it to make electricity, the Edwardsport plant would turn coal into a gas before burning it. "Gasification" makes removing pollutants easier.
From another post, another site:
9. To: The Leadpenny (#8)
Fasten your seat belts
Several things that won't be talked about today.
Now, a new agreement, reported when it was still being negotiated last month, has been finalised. And the first US personnel could be on the ground in Pakistan by early in the new year, according to Pentagon sources. US Central Command Commander Adm William Fallon alluded to the agreement and spoke approvingly of Pakistan’s recent counter-terrorism efforts in a recent interview.
A report on the investigation into Rashid Rauf's escape last Saturday was expected to be submitted to the government Thursday. The Dawn newspaper said the report called it a case of "criminal collusion." The escape has been an embarrassment for President Pervez Musharraf's government.
In letters to the Northern Areas Council chairman and chief ministers of the four provinces, Soomro ordered illegal trade to be brought to an end. He also urged for strict action to be taken against officials and heavy penalties imposed on the individuals and timber merchants involved in the illegal cutting of trees.
Soomro, in another directive to the provincial governments, reiterated that strict action should also be taken against wheat hoarders and smugglers to ensure availability of wheat and flour to the common man at reasonable rates.
In a statement senator Javaid Laghari said that power shortage, which averaged at 2500 MW in 2007, will increase to over 3000 MW in January 2008 due to the already declined supplies of water, gas and oil, which are the main drivers of electricity in Pakistan.
As the demand for power will rise further as summer months approach, the nation should brace itself to bear further load shedding with power shortage rising to over 6000 MW causing over three hours of load shedding in the cities and over four to six in the rural areas, while some parts of the country may not see power for up to twelve hours at a stretch.
Pakistan is the nexus.
mcgowanjm
So, a near miss on Rashid Rauf will put US troops in Pakistan. Wonder how much Benazir Bhutto's death will add to the tally.
Looks like "above ground" factors will be the driver for 2008.
AKH
Above ground factors are always the drivers. Geology is the tires.
More at the link.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22977630-2703,00.html
US beefs up Pakistan force
Bruce Loudon, South Asia correspondent | December 28, 2007
US Special Forces are to increase their presence in Pakistan amid assessments that the country is to become the central battlefield for al-Qa'ida as it is driven from Iraq.
"Pakistan should be carefully watched because it could prove to be a significant flashpoint in the coming year," US think tank Strategic Forecasting said in an evaluation of al-Qa'ida's tactics as the Islamist group comes under mounting pressure in Iraq.
With the "rapid spread of Talibanisation" in Pakistan's insurgent northwest, the country would become "especially important if the trend in Iraq continues to go against the jihadis and they are driven from Iraq", the assessment says.
Driven from Iraq? For God's sake, the US-backed "Anbar Salvation Council" consists of insurgents whose ideology is virtually indistinguishable from Saudi Arabia's, probably under orders from Saudi agents. They don't think they've switched sides, they think they've forced us to accept them as the rulers of western Iraq. They tell reporters,
"Bagdad is next."
Islamic fundamentalists have mastered the old American trick of presenting people with only two alternatives, the extreme right and the very extreme right, and calling it a victory when they choose the extreme right.
On to Pakistan, indeed.
How many wars does Cheney want?
All of them.
Just one - Armageddon.
All wars make money for those who arm both sides
The Hegelian situation in the Middle East is an outgrowth of our current policy of oil hegemony in the region. In turn, our policy is a direct result of our dependence on oil. As one has fed the other, terrorism, instability, and extremism provided a reason for the US to place forces and exert military influence on a vital energy supply.
This year, geopolitics will face severe political strain that will result in an increased likelihood of broadening conflict. These strains include:
1. An increasingly apparent worldwide energy crisis resulting from the inability of world supplies to meet demand.
2. A growing and increasingly critical world food crisis.
- Increased energy costs are resulting in increased food costs and reduced availability.
- Climate change is beginning to severely impact food production in North America, Australia, Africa, India, Pakistan and China (among others).
- Climate change is resulting in severe water shortages worldwide which also places a constraint on food production.
3. A substantial transference of wealth to extreme and unstable regimes worldwide due to the high cost of oil. This transference of wealth and power enables various extreme elements worldwide to develop militaries and meddle in the economic and political affairs of countries worldwide.
4. China entering a state of emergency with regards to food and fuel. Though subsidies will continue to protect the rapidly growing economy, cracks will begin to appear in the subsidies regime. As limits to growth become apparent, China will be increasingly pressed to secure food and fuel through means outside of the usual economic and diplomatic channels. Furthermore, increased competition between the US and China over less available fuel reserves will result in a second world 'powder keg' of, perhaps, equal importance to the Middle East. If the current combination of fuel, food and climate trouble continue, in 5-15 years, famine becomes a very real possibility in China. Will China accept this fate quietly?
5. U.S. military presence in the Middle East is seen, increasingly, throughout the world as an occupying force whose primary purpose is to control its vast fuel reserves.
6. On the flip side, tightening supplies of oil and the threat of shortages in the US will place pressure on all policy makers in Washington -- both Democrat and Republican -- to flex the US's military muscle in the region and across shipping lanes to further control world oil supply. If tensions erupt in the region or other powers (eg China) make a military play the result will be another increase in US military action in the region. If the past is any oracle, this kind of destabilization will result in reduced supply of oil worldwide.
7. At home, the US presidential race will become increasingly contentious as candidates find a wide variety of firebrand issues to debate. The result is a public increasingly informed of the evolving crises. In this case, information could well result in hoarding and place further strain on food and fuel. As leadership figures clearly realize this, they will walk a tight line between providing information to galvanize public opinion and feeding fear.
8. In the US, overextended financial systems will face reduced flexibility due to the economic constraints of high energy costs. Without a lowering global cost of energy, primarily oil, financial systems will struggle to recover. Any permanent recovery must come with the support of increased supply and/or efficiency.
9. No one clearly knows what's in store with regards to climate change. It seems likely melting in the Arctic and Greenland will continue to some degree. But at what level remains unclear. 2007 exceeded all prior estimates by a terrifying degree. If 2008 was anything like 2007 the results would be very grim indeed. The most likely scenario is a slower increase in melting or even a small build back of arctic sea ice from last year. Greenland glacial melt would likely continue at 2007 rates. Any further substantial reductions in summer sea ice and increases in Greenland glacial melt would be an indication that some tipping point has been crossed and that world climate change is accelerating far more rapidly than previously expected.
FINAL ASSESSMENT
If GREEN = smooth sailing
and YELLOW = increased danger of world conflict and energy crisis with some visible and obvious strains resulting in higher prices and visible economic impact.
and RED = substantial visible world crisis in energy with a high economic impact resulting in a worldwide economic slowdown and potential recession among major economies. In this scenario significant geopolitical conflict is a high likelihood.
and BLACK = critical world energy crisis with severe economic impacts and geopolitical conflict over energy in full swing
Then next year looks to be a RED one. Four inter-related crises -- energy, food, climate, and finance -- are all substantial dangers to world economies and political systems. Though these crises have not yet reached a critical stage, there is considerable danger they will in the future as, without a major change in the world's energy infrastructure, all are likely to stick around or even worsen. The result is an increase in the likelihood of new moderate to severe conflicts worldwide.
It is important to note that, even in GREEN years (2001) the geopolitical tension surrounding oil was enough to result in conflict. By comparison, the past RED and YELLOW years of the 1970's and early 1980's resulted in the Carter Doctrine which has necessitated US forces in the Middle East over the past three decades. During the oil crisis of the Nixon Administration, the primary hold to US use of military force to secure oil was the threat of Soviet nuclear retaliation. In the current age, there is no such constraint.
All years after 9/11 were YELLOW. 2008 is the first RED year this decade.
More boots on the ground doesn't mean a lot of U.S. boots on the ground. Musharraf definitely wouldn't accept a huge U.S. build up. The popular response, say, in the vital North West Frontier would be horrendous. It would be playing right into the hands of the already-powerful militants there. In any case, he has tons of troops; he just needs to shift them from East to West.
Steve LeVine, author
The Oil and the Glory
http://www.oilandglory.com
"More Boots on the Ground" in this case, means imbedded special forces. Not really a surprise to me at all.
How I would love to find something orderly and Hegelian
in this mash. I see a Shakespearean situation. Rational
pursuit of state interests is no longer in the saddle.
We are become prisoner to drive, dream and delusion.
Richard Bruce Cheney in the character of Richard III.
Blood on the stage.
Unfortunately, I think it is calculated. In my opinion, for all the wrong and cynical reasons.
You could be right.
I like your posts.
OTOH fomenting a civil war in Pakistan does not
serve any interests I can imagine.
The cynical calculating ones seem to all have
sticky slide rules.
"The cynical calculating ones seem to all have
sticky slide rules."
I like this one! Do I have your permission to use it if I attribute you?
Public domain. Anything you like.
depends on your point of view...
If you are in charge in the US, watching as the sub-prime / credit crunch takes hold and there is a Presidential race about to start, then anything that diverts attention away from the US itself (the further the better), serves your interests.
Those who see events unfolding as "they're people", rather than "they're numbers" won't see any interests that they would support benefitting.
AKH
'OTOH fomenting a civil war in Pakistan does not serve any interests I can imagine'...Old Hippie...There are any number of possibilities but here is just one to sleep on...
The US is pressuring India to get on board with new nuke power facilities provided by the US. India is resisting because they would have to submit to all sorts of new inspection regimes if they take the deal the US is offering, right now they have to submit to nothing. India wants the pipeline through Pakistan to Iran completed ASAP. The US does not want that pipeline built. The gas flowing from Iran via the pipeline would provide India with enough power generating capicity to enable them to delay a decision on nuke plants provided by the US, with attendent inspection regimes. The US is trying to bind India closer and India is taking a wait and see attitude, probably because the SCO is gaining some traction and the US economy is wobbly and the US military is currently underwhelming. If Pakistan is embroiled in a conflict there is scant chance of a transit pipeline being built...Which could force India into the nuke deal sooner.
This is just one of many possibilities in a very complex situation. Its getting late and I need to get some Zs. We will probably have more semi-intelligent :) thoughts to express on the Pakistan situation tomorrow, after sleeping on it.
Consider:
1) Where are the nukes?
Who controls nukes?
Who knows where they are?
2) Musharraf has no constituency except USA
and those nukes. Taliban is done with him.
3) USA India Russia China KSA Israel are making
new plans tonite on info very little better
than you and I have.
I don't think special forces are there to foment a civil war, just to ensure:
1. Regular troops are trained to hunt down Al Quaeda.
2. The nukes remain secure.
'Where are the nukes? Who controls the nukes?'
A common failing among Americans is to overestimate the number of radical muslims in Pakistan. Extremists in Pakistan garner only 3% of the vote in national elections. Confusion of the American public is understandable because the US press spends a lot of time reporting on and stressing the madrassas, taliban, militants, etc. Here are some recent numbers from Juan Coles blog re the political disposition of Pakistan...
http://www.juancole.com/
...snip...'I am appalled by the rightwing US pundits who are taking advantage of Bhutto's assassination to blame "the people of Pakistan" for "extremism." Benazir's party would have won at least a plurality in parliament. The PPP is a moderate, middle class party, and it has done well in unrigged elections during the past 20 years. She was killed by an extremist of some sort. The Muslim fundamentalist parties usually only get 3 percent of the vote in national elections, and they got 11.3 percent of the popular vote in 2002 only because Musharraf interfered with the PPP and Muslim League campaigns'...snip...
'Who controls the Pakistani nukes?' Could we not as well ask 'Who controls the US nukes' after the recent incident of a B-52 flying unauthorized, cross country in the US with nukes, unsupervised and presenting, for all the world to see, a total breach of nuke security? But, since you obviously dont do google searces to answer your own questions here is a NYT link re Pakistani nukes...
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/weekinreview/11sanger.html
...snip...'“It’s a very professional military,” said a senior American official who is trying to manage the crisis and insisted on anonymity because the White House has said this problem will not be discussed in public. “But the truth is, we don’t know how many of the safeguards are institutionalized, and how many are dependent on Musharraf’s guys'...snip...
'Musharraf has no constituency except the USA and nukes, taliban is done with him.'
Would you care to back up some of your outrageous exaggerations with some proof? As pointed out above by Juan Cole ALL radical Islamic movements in Pakistan garner only 3% of the vote in national elections. The Pakistani people are justifiably ticked at Musharraf right now because of his suspension of the supreme court. Too bad Americans didnt become so vocal when shrub suspended Habeus Corpus...And, why do you have the impression that Musharraf ever sought support of the Taliban? It is the Taliban that was created by the CIA and ISI and have been dependent on support from 'friendly outsiders'...hint, the Taliban are Sunni.
'USA INDIA RUSSIA CHINA KSA ISRAEL are making new plans tonite on info very little better than you and I have.'
Of course they are but the only one that scares me is the US. It has become well known worldwide that the US is a piss poor planner and gatherer of intelligence, spending more money on intelligence than most continents and getting crap for results. Perhaps we should send the CIA an email telling them that Pakistan has WMD?...They might be the last to find out. :)
Your post sounds a bit hysterical. Since we are simply observers why should we panic?
Percentage voting does not necessarilly equal percentage of population. The hypothesis that many Paki extremists might not recognize the legitimacy of the political process and thus abstain from voting cannot be ruled out at this point.
The one inference that I believe can clearly be ruled out is the notion that this was the work of "a lone gunman" or a "deranged individual". Conspiracy is written all over this one.
The exaggerations or assertions I'm making are
not the ones you're reading. And I am less than
satisfied with answers from NYT stenography.
Which I read hardcopy daily to know what the
party line is.
Short queries are not hysteria.
Dick C as Dick 3 ?
never.
Dick 3 was a very decent man, whatever the Tydder Hack says.
Google 'The Richard the Third Society.'
I think Dick is a strong and eloquent public speaker and that he believes what he is doing is right. But he's an oil guy and he's vested in it. I can't believe he's in this game to lose.
I dont believe anybody ever plays to loose, but Pakistan - Afghanistan , now here is a graveyard of empires.
After the 1st Afghan War, we , as Empire Policy, determined never to go north of the Khyber Pass. But of course we did in the 2nd Afghan War, and then the 3rd in 1919-1921 , and again currently. This is our 4th Afghan War.
They say that runs on the bank only occur after the last man who can remember the last run has retired. Same seems likely about wars as well.
I have been interested and followed the fortunes of Pakistan and Afghanistan for a while. Partly because we have a large Pakistani community settled in Britain and this community does seem to produce most of our disenfranchised , disconnected militant Islamists that want to leave bombs on London buses.
But also, while researching our family tree,I found our collective clan left a boy in Afghanistan in 1920. A 2nd Lieutenant. One thing leads to another and you end up researching the 'great game', in more than normal detail.
The murder of Bhutto is seriously bad. Yes , they were a dodgy dynasty. But, and this is a big but. Bhutto was reasonable and wanted to try and dig her country out of the dark ages that the Islamo-Patriaches wanted to drag it back to. Of all the things she represented , to me it was the potential stability of democracy and the education and voting emancipation of women.
IMO, This could really blow up. It could lead to civil war in what is (in effect) a made up country of competing tribal, ethnic and linguistic groups.
There are now a huge number of very pissed off people with different loyalties and religious sects, in a failing state that is failing to feed and energise (blackouts are now common). And they got Nukes and they got nutters who would happily sell said nukes to other nutters.
I would be very surprised indeed if India has not gone to a first strike state of readiness tonight.
Afghanistan:
Almost all the fuel,lubricants, heavy munitions,heavy weapons, food and light arms goes north to Afghanistan through Pakistan.
NATO relies on Pakistan being stable and pro-West. The North West Frontier (a headache for BritEmp for 150 years) is no more stable now than it ever was. If the NWF becomes increasingly Talibanised, or Pakistan turns in on itself, then supplying NATO forces will become impossible.
Getting NATO Forces safely out down that road will be a nightmare. Read my link to the 1st Afghan war. The safe border would be even further away than for Elphinstones Army.
Today is not a good day. The best the West can hope for is that Musharraf puts his uniform back on, and cracks down.
Pakistan is running out of road
thanks mudlogger for the info/background. i felt heavy all day after hearing of Bhutto's being killed. she did seem reasonable & i to have wondered if this will be the beginning of a serious unraveling in the ME.
I agree that there are serious concerns RE Pakistan and the nukes only make it worse. That said, as of now, the nukes are secure and there is transparency.
The history of Pakistan and Afghanistan is also a serious concern. And I agree it could be a very bad situation. IMO the current US regime is committed to action and engagement. I think there's a hope among those involved that the precident set by Bhutto would result in a swing toward democracy and away from extremism.
I don't know if things will work out well. For my part, I think it's a very dangerous situation. But I don't think any in the West will stand by and let nukes fall into the hands of Al-Quaeda.
One final note -- the assassination of Bhutto may well blow up in the face of Al-Quaeda and galvanize public opinion against extremist elements. Not something to count on, but a possibility nonetheless.
The nightmare scenario: Imagine a Somalia with an inventory of nukes.
i think it's more like richard cranium