DrumBeat: December 28, 2007


Minister slams Russian grab for Serb oil monopoly

A Russian bid to gain control of Serbia's NIS oil monopoly for 400 million euros ($588.4 million) is indecent and unacceptable as far as the Economy Ministry is concerned, Minister Mladjan Dinkic said on Friday.

Lesson of 2007: Don't take our way of life for granted

Oil reached $98 a barrel by November. Conservatives thought that the market alone might easily correct the problem. Yet they are starting to see in the meantime that petrol-rich, anti-American dictatorships, flush with American cash, won't be so patient with us.

Liberals claim that we won't have to find and burn far more of our own oil and coal, or build nuclear plants. But they are learning that for now that would only make Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hugo Chavez, Vladimir Putin and the House of Saud even happier.


Canada: Securities regulators enact changes to oil and gas disclosure standard

The Canadian Securities Administrators have enacted changes to the oil and gas industry disclosure standard known as National Instrument 51-101.

The revisions relate to requirements for disclosure of resources and modify annual filing requirements.


Sudan's Central Bank opts for euro

The Central Bank of Sudan will deal only in the euro beginning in 2008 and advised local commercial banks to opt for convertible currencies other than the U.S. dollar.


Oil-rich Kirkuk vote, upheaval delayed

The official Kurdish OK to delay a vote on the future of oil-rich Kirkuk has given Iraq more time to deal with a powder keg of an issue.


Iraqi oil delegation in Iran

-- Iraqi oil officials and business leaders are in Iran for a weeklong dialogue on future cooperation as cross-country oil trade continues.

Iran and Iraq are in the last stages of moving forward on a pipeline sending crude from Iraq to Iranian refineries and potentially a pipeline sending fuel back to Iraq.


EU goes Russian nuclear

After the EU gave its approval for the Russian-Bulgarian agreement on building a nuclear power plant in the small Bulgarian town of Belene on the bank of the Danube, the two countries are in the starting blocks waiting for the main treaty to be signed in late January 2008.


GE Money will finance solar projects

California-based Solar Power Inc. announced GE Money will provide solar financing services.

Yes! Solar Solutions stores, owned by Solar Power Inc., will be able to offer financing for their products and services from GE Money, a unit of General Electric Co., the Roseville, Calif., firm announced Wednesday.


Solar Cell Production Jumps 50 Percent in 2007

Production of photovoltaics (PV) jumped to 3,800 megawatts worldwide in 2007, up an estimated 50 percent over 2006. At the end of the year, according to preliminary data, cumulative global production stood at 12,400 megawatts, enough to power 2.4 million U.S. homes. Growing by an impressive average of 48 percent each year since 2002, PV production has been doubling every two years, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy source.


Platts - Top 10 oil industry stories of the year: the results are in

1) Oil soars, reaches close to $100 for WTI: 1,159 points, 53 first place votes.

2) Spare capacity dwindles, supply/demand balance tightens; Peak Oil theory gets more attention: 980 pts, 45 1st place

3) Major oil companies report declining production: 842 pts, 25 1st place

See also The Top Ten: What Was Missing


The trouble with trade

While the United States has long imported oil and other raw materials from the third world, we used to import manufactured goods mainly from other rich countries like Canada, European nations and Japan.

But recently we crossed an important watershed: We now import more manufactured goods from the third world than from other advanced economies. That is, a majority of our industrial trade is now with countries that are much poorer than we are and that pay their workers much lower wages.


Farm groups say energy prices, not ethanol, driving food costs higher

Consumers may have paid a little more for their holiday meals this Christmas, but it’s unlikely farmers should have to shoulder the blame for the higher prices, farm organizations say.

The American Farm Bureau Federation says the traditional holiday meal might cost $4 more this year, but a look at the facts shows it’s more likely energy prices – including the price at the pump – not ethanol prices that are fueling the rise at the grocery store.


World population trends favor farming and farmers

If current population trends continue, our world will face the challenge in the next 10-15 years of feeding another China, or about another one billion people.

Most of that growth will not be in the U.S., but provides an ideal market for U.S. farmers.


Ghana: Petrol Shortage Hits Bolga

Out of about five fuel stations in the municipality, only one was operating in the vicinity of the SSNIT Quarters, as at last Sunday.

Some stations were however seen secretly selling petrol to some motorists who seemed to be special clients, despite the ‘No Petrol’ sign placed at their entrances.


Oil May Fall on Signs Supply Will Rise Next Year, Survey Shows

Crude oil may fall on speculation that U.S. inventories will rise after the start of the new year and on forecasts for warmer weather.

Nine of 17 analysts surveyed, or 53 percent, said oil prices will decline through Jan. 4. Seven of the respondents, or 41 percent, said prices will rise, and one predicted little change. Last week, 47 percent of respondents said oil would hover between $90 and $93 a barrel this week.


Analysis: Iraq oil up end-'07, sketchy '08

Iraq's oil sector ends 2007 on a relatively upbeat note, with production at levels not seen since before the war. But the year had more downs than ups, and sustaining success through next year is far from guaranteed.


Oil Service Business Booming in Russia

High oil prices and European demand for natural gas have transformed Russia's once-sleepy oilfield services sector into a $13 billion business that could become the world's second-largest market by 2011. Two spheres compete for that business, which includes finding and producing both oil and gas: small Russian companies that perform routine drilling and well servicing, and international giants that take the lead on more complex jobs.

Recently, those two worlds have started to collide.


LUKOIL, Gazprom Neft set up exploration venture

Russia's No.2 oil firm LUKOIL and the oil arm of gas export monopoly Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, on Friday set up a joint venture to explore for oil and gas in Russia and abroad.

The firms said in a joint statement the venture will be 51 percent controlled by Gazprom Neft and 49 percent by LUKOIL. It will also produce, transport and sell hydrocarbons.


BLM Environmental Study Advances Oil Shale Plan

The Bureau of Land Management moved ahead with its push for commercial oil shale development, despite congressional concerns about the agency's pace.

BLM released its draft programmatic environmental impact statement (EIS) for oil shale and tar sands resources on just under 2 million acres of public land in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. Where it occurs, oil shale development would supersede other uses of public lands, such as recreation or other oil and gas activity.


Nigeria: When'll Shifting Goal Posts for Gas Flare End?

In Iwerekhan community in Ughelli local government council of Delta State, growing food crops remains a very difficult task for the inhabitants, who are mostly farmers. The other occupation that sustained their forebears besides farming, is fishing, but this too, is gone. With their major means of livelihood gone, the community also suffers from routine hardship brought on them by the loss of their shelter when the corrugated iron sheets mostly used on their roofs is worn out by the effects of harsh environment. The community also contends with strange ailments, which have made life rough and meaningless. According to the community leaders spoken to by THISDAY in March this year, their current problems were all brought on them by oil exploration activities with its concomitant gas flares and pollution of the land.


Nigeria: Protesters lock out government workers in Ekiti

According to an eye-witness, they were enraged by the fact that they had spent the Christmas festivities in darkness as their taps were equally dry, while the roads in the area had deteriorated, warning the relevant authorities to do something urgent before the situation got out of control.


South Korea's Current Account Surplus Narrows on Oil

South Korea's current account surplus narrowed in November as high oil prices pushed up the import bill and threatened to slow growth.


Japan prices jump on energy costs, industrial production down

Rising energy costs triggered the biggest jump in Japanese consumer prices in almost a decade while industrial production slumped, the government said Friday, clouding the outlook for the world's No. 2 economy.

The nation's jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 3.8 percent in November, but overall the mixed data cements expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged for some time, even as energy-fueled inflation accelerates.


Pakistan: 5 hydel units being installed to overcome energy crisis

Provincial Minister for Irrigation Senator Syed Dilawar Abbas has said that the irrigation and power department will play its due role to overcome energy crisis in the country. He said that initially five hydel power units are being installed at canals with 25 megawatt power generating capacity.


Biofuels hopes hit by high feedstock values and cheap US/Brazil imports

ARABLE farmers looking to the biofuels industry to bolster wheat and rapeseed prices could be in for a disappointment. While European biofuel plants cannot operate at current high feedstock values, the market in Europe is being undercut by shiploads of cheap biodiesel and bioethanol from the US and Brazil.


Iran receives second nuclear fuel shipment

Iran received the second shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia on Friday for a power plant being constructed in the southern Iranian town of Bushehr, the official news agency IRNA reported.

The delivery signaled continued momentum toward beginning operations at the long-delayed 1,000 megawatt light-water reactor, which the Russians are helping to construct and the Iranians say will come online in 2008.


Toyota introducing hybrid pickup

The concept truck, to be shown at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, features a hybrid drive and Prius styling.


Bill McKibben - Kyoto: 10 years later and we're still at square one

The important political-world reality to know about the 10 years after Kyoto is that we haven't done anything.

Oh, we've passed all kinds of interesting state and local laws, wonderful experiments that have begun to show just how much progress is possible. But in Washington, D.C., nothing. No laws at all. Until last year, when the GOP surrendered control of Congress, even the hearings were a joke, with "witnesses" like novelist/skeptic Michael Crichton.


Bill McKibben - Remember This: 350 Parts Per Million

This month may have been the most important yet in the two-decade history of the fight against global warming. Al Gore got his Nobel in Stockholm; international negotiators made real progress on a treaty in Bali; and in Washington, Congress actually worked up the nerve to raise gas mileage standards for cars.

But what may turn out to be the most crucial development went largely unnoticed. It happened at an academic conclave in San Francisco. A NASA scientist named James Hansen offered a simple, straightforward and mind-blowing bottom line for the planet: 350, as in parts per million carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It's a number that may make what happened in Washington and Bali seem quaint and nearly irrelevant. It's the number that may define our future.


Oil prices at month-highs after Bhutto killing

Dealers said Bhutto's killing on Thursday, which plunged the nation into crisis and sparked global condemnation and concern, would have a psychological impact on the market even though the country is not an oil producer.

There would be "very serious impact" as ramifications from the violence in Pakistan -- a key US ally in the "war on terror" -- play out, said Steve Rowles, an analyst with CFC Seymour securities in Hong Kong.

"It's not so much what happens in Pakistan. It's what happens in Afghanistan and everywhere else" in the region, Rowles said.


The Post-Bush Regime: A Prognosis

In order to clear the way for the new show, it seems pretty clear that the new administration will begin with some easy political wins, by rapidly cleaning up some of the obvious messes left by the neocons. Closing down Guantanamo, and declaring that rendition flights have been abandoned, would gain a lot of points at no real cost (secret flights and prisons would undoubtedly continue). Iraq has already been destabilized and prepared for balkanization, and permanent US bases have already been built. Another easy win will be for US troops to withdraw to their bases and the oil fields, for the war to be declared over, and for Iraq to be split up into ethnic provinces, leaving them to squabble among themselves. It can all be portrayed in the media as a ‘victory for peace and democracy’.

What then, can we expect from this new show? What consequences are likely to follow from implementing the kind of policies that Al Gore and the media have been talking about, around climate change, energy independence, etc.? What is our ruling clique really trying to accomplish?


Rosneft sees oil output rising 11 pct in 2008

Russia's state-controlled oil champion Rosneft will raise oil output by 11 percent in 2008 maintaining impressive growth in West Siberia and launching a new major field in East Siberia, it said on Friday.


Alaska judge backs rejection of Point Thomson plan

The state of Alaska acted properly when it rejected as inadequate a development plan for the long-languishing Point Thomson oil and gas field on the North Slope, a state judge ruled on Thursday.


Japan's AOC to end Kuwait oilfield contract

A statement released by AOC Holdings, a Japanese oil explorer and refiner, said that the company will end a services contract at Kuwait's Khafji oil field after 50 years at the site, Gulf News reported.

The agreement to provide training and engineering support ends on January 4, 2008, the Tokyo-based company said. However, AOC's contract to receive about 100,000 barrels a day of Khafji oil will continue until 2023.


Korean yards bag offshore orders

Samsung Heavy Industries has obtained new orders totaling $2.41 billion including a $1.15-billion deal to build two semi-submersible floating drilling rigs for an undisclosed Russian client for delivery in September 2010. In addition African and American clients ordered two oil drilling ships worth $1.26 billion for delivery in May 2011.


Indago Petroleum warns of delays, cost rise at Oman project

Indago Petroleum Ltd said drilling work at the the Hebel Hafit gas prospect in Oman has been slower than planned, leading to a significant rise in project cost.


City initiative on 'peak oil'

EDINBURGH is set to become one of the first UK cities to actively reduce its dependency on oil.


Japan urges China to sway global issues

Japan urged China to use its growing influence to make an impact on key global issues such as climate change during summit talks Friday that reflected the countries' warmer ties.


Ban's Dogged Diplomacy Yields Progress on Climate, UN Overhaul

Ban Ki-moon had left the climate- change conference in Bali, Indonesia, to visit United Nations peacekeepers in East Timor when he received an urgent call to go back. Talks on a new global-warming treaty were deadlocked.

The UN secretary-general returned on Dec. 15 to deliver a message to delegates that their failure would be a ``betrayal of our planet.'' Two hours later, with prodding from other leaders, negotiators worked out a compromise.

RE: Remember This: 350 Parts Per Million

As Bill McKibben points out, if James Hansen is correct, the problem of Climate Change is much bigger than anyone previously thought. I doubt the Earth's population has the will to face it yet.

E. Swanson

I was going to post this up top, but what the heck, it kind of fits here....

The Year in Review: The planet

The sheer scale of what happened hasn't sunk in, it probably hasn't sunk in at all, with most people. They're not looking back on 2007 and talking about it, in the office, in pubs or over dinner. Listen to them: they're talking about Brown taking over from Blair, or David Cameron's prospects, or England failing to qualify for the European football championships. Or they're talking about getting and spending, or love and hate, as they always have. But what happened in September dwarfs all that.

You might compare it, in its implications, to Hitler marching his troops into the previously demilitarised Rhineland, in March 1936 – the clearest possible sign that the world was in for serious trouble. Some people understood the potential consequences of Hitler's move at once, but the world as a whole carried on with business as usual, until three years later the storm burst upon it. And so it seems to be with the ice.

I've been watching the decline in sea-ice for a number of years now. This year's sudden loss of sea-ice, compared with previous years could be just a yearly fluctuation, with next year's sea-ice returning closer to the trend. But, the trend is strongly negative, such that one might expect to see more such instances of decline in extent in future years, as Global Warming is expected to strengthen.

As the loss of sea-ice increases, so will the flow of water and sea-ice between the Arctic Ocean and the Sub-Polar Gyre of the North Atlantic thru the Fram Strait. The Sub-Polar Gyre is where a portion of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) has been found in years past. Adding the low salinity water and ice from the Arctic to that part of the North Atlantic could cap the THC in this area, preventing sinking there, which would have other impacts on climate, especially on Northern Europe. One other possible outcome could be that the THC location shifts from the North Atlantic into the Arctic, as the sea-ice cycle between maximum and minimum extent causes brine to be rejected, which can also sink. That's the mechanism for the THC that is found around Antarctica, which also has a large variation in sea-ice extent over the yearly cycle. Were this scenario to occur, the inflow of warmer water from the North Atlantic could further hasten the melt of the Arctic sea-ice.

My impression of the ACOGCM's used to model this part of the climate question is that they have been weak in the various representations of the THC. Whether this weakness is the cause of the difference between the model results and this summer's unexpected melt is beyond my knowledge.

E. Swanson

And yet the Antarctic ice sheet is growing.

So what?

The Antarctic Ice Cap is slumping, not growing.
So what? So if it keeps slumping, my brother's house will have a beach. He's above the 10 meter line for Greenland so he's not worried that much.
Ditto my sister. She's going to sell in May, after the school year is out. They are moving above the 100 meter line.
If the shelf lifts off the terminal moraine we don't know what's going to happen, but it could happen over the course of a few years, or months, or weeks. How many holes have we drilled in the ice of Antarctica? How fluid is the ice at the bottom? At temperatures near freezing the flow rate is nonlinear. And a house is a thirty year investment. The resale value is what people are thinking about global warming in 2038, not 2008.

Just be sure to be far enough away from shore so that salt water doesn't get into the well.

It was 37 degrees F there last week.

A woman was standing naked on the pebble strewn beach.

You got any evidence to back up that claim?

Do a Google image search on "Nekoharbour Antarctica". Obviously the resulting image is not work safe... and it doesn't appear to be from last week.

Carefull you are poking around in a hill of fire ants.

The interesting thing is about 10 days ago some one had gone in and ajusted the data to provide a plot of less than 16 million.

The artic ice had also been adjusted but was obviously screwed up, but I see now both north and south plots are back to provide what appears to be accurate data plots.

Ants? On Fire? In Antarctica? Well -- there's your problem right there!

I can't stand going thru another conversation this year like the one I had today at another site.

Neo...isn't that worse than clean carbon dioxide?

The Rat
" clean carbon dioxide?"

What's that?

Neo

It is transparent and doesn't leave an ugly mess. Trees love the stuff

TR,working real hard to help out

I think you mean clean carbon, as in clean coal tech.
Or maybe CO2 what doesn't absorb IR? Good luck.

Neo
No, I mean clean as it is not pollution and even much higher levels will not kill us, but make trees grow.

Time to flee the country. Gonna take my daughter and her guest on a Caribbean cruise. On to Barbados. Arr, buckos..

Happy New Year

Mike da Rat

Math people...I could use a little help.
I've been trying to figure out why America is so far behind the world in understanding GW; best I can figure,

N=M(Tv + B)1/R

where N =# who get it

M = median IQ

Tv = (Ai +Lw)Fv, where Ai = total votes on American Idle, Lw = total lbs lost on the fat show, and Fv =faux viewers

B = % who think the Bible is The science book

R = world rank, scientific literacy (17th)

I'm thinking it may be 1/M; makes a big difference. Please help the poor Rat out.
Thanks

That's a pretty good analogy.

And the Winner is...?

http://www.controlfireants.com/fire-ant-fights.htm

The trend looks flat to me.

I would not expect, a priori, that all metrics of global ice to retreat uniformly as the earth warms.

Alan

Yes, in area. Not in mass according to the data from the GRACE Satellites.

Mass has been decreasing rather dramatically.

NOTE: Sea ice is not the same as ice sheets, ice shelves or
glaciers. The chart says nothing about the growth (or shrinkage) of the Antarctic ice sheets.

Ice sheets are layers of ice that are on land. See "West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)" at Wikipedia or the online Encyclopedia Britannica for information. Ice sheets can be hundreds or even thousands of feet thick.

Ice shelves are layers of ice that flow from land and are anchored at one end on that land but otherwise mostly floating on the ocean. See "Ross Ice Shelf" for example. Ice shelves can be hundreds, or even a few thousand feet thick. The Ross Ice Shelf reaches a thickness of about 3,000 feet in some areas.

Sea ice is ice that forms, spreads and melts on ocean water. This is in contrast to ice shelves, ice sheets and glaciers, all of which form over land. Most sea ice is annual, forming and melting in the same year. Some survives for more than a year, becoming thicker. This happens more readily in the Arctic than the Antarctic. Typical average sea ice thickness in the Arctic is 6 to 9 feet, which it is only 3 to 6 feet in the Antarctic. Multiyear sea ice in both areas can achieve thicknesses of 12 to 15 feet.

At least for the past 30 plus years of detailed records, Antarctic sea ice normally grows in the winter to cover about 18 million square kilometers before shrinking in the summer to only about 3 million square kilometers. Arctic sea ice grows to about 15 million square kilometers before melting back (until recently) to about 7 million square kilometers.

One could probably write a pretty good SciFi thriller around the scenario of the Ross Ice Shelf breaking off from Antarctica, becoming the world's largest iceberg, and causing all sorts of havoc as it drifts around the globe.

Maybe someday it will really happen, too, which is more than can be said for most SciFi thrillers.

Yeah, the Ross Ice Shelf is about 600 miles wide at the widest. It could definitely block some straits or force ocean traffic to reroute around it. It would also probably create its own weather pattern over itself and over nearby waters.

Some really big icebergs have broken off the Ross shelf in the past. B-15 back in 2000 was roughly 180 miles long and 25 miles wide. It ended up grounding itself near Ross Island, where it was a real nuisance to penguins and the handful of ships that visit the science bases on Ross Island each year. Finally broke up into smaller pieces which drifted off.

Linearity and proof of how muich CO2 is needed is precisely not ht epoint. We need just enought o make the slip off of some big ice bargs happen by melt down of water to the base of the ice sheets then it is too late. So the 350 ppm level is likely enough. I have given up on the arctic ice and am now concetrating on the data from Grace satellite. Once the arctic sheet is disspated then Greenland will be going over to break up quickly I presume.

Since you are following it, is there any more recent published Grace data for Antarctica than that linked to above from March 2006? It would be interesting to see what has been happening in the past 18 months since this graph was published:

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/grace/grace-20060302-browse.jpg

I don't grok the data flow at the tech sites but here's a forum link maybe they can interpret it.

http://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/index.php?name=PNphpBB2

But seriously I think Grace is the only place to figure aóut what is the net minus on Greenland ice mass so we have to figure out how to get the latest data set and interpret it.

Ice shelves are layers of ice that flow from land and are anchored at one end on that land but otherwise mostly floating on the ocean.

can you provide any reference for this statement - especially the "mostly floating" part?

He is right on this one, nh3 - "ice shelf" is a bit of a contraction, with the full name being "floating ice shelf". Ice that is over land is referred to as "grounded ice". There are some situations where the weight of the ice has pushed rock that was originally above sea level down to the point where it is below sea level. I believe large portions of the land under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are this way.

And when all or part of the ice shelf lets go? Then you've got ice bergs.

He is right on this one

i am not so sure. there is a ground line beneath an ice shelf which could be way beyond the normal coast line and way below normal sea level. my believe that ice shelf can stay in place for a long time is mostly because that the large part of it is grounded on the continental shelf - without that, the ice shelf would break away as ice burger quickly and the ice sheets on land would flow away much faster. i view ice shelves as the "retaining walls" of the ice sheets.

You're right about the ice shelf being a protection for the grounded ice. When the Jakobshavn ice tongue broke up in Greenland the drainage of grounded ice through the area sped up dramatically. It was an ice tongue rather than an ice shelf due to the fact that it was constantly calving on the ocean end and constantly being refreshed on the grounded ice side. The whole structure just went away during 2002/2003. Prior to that its presence moderated ice flows. The shelves serve a similar purpose, but without the dynamic nature of an ice tongue.

"An ice shelf is a thick, floating platform of ice that forms where a glacier or ice sheet flows down to a coastline and onto the ocean surface."

First hit on googling "ice shelf".

Here is a link to Earth and Space Research, an Institute devoted to oceanographic research.

You might also want to check "The Physics of Glaciers," by W. Paterson. It is a principal text for glaciology. It says the following about ice shelves:
"An ice shelf is a body of ice originating as part of the ice sheet that has flowed off the land and is floating on ocean. The zone between ice that is in contact with land (grounded ice) and ice that is supported by water (floating ice) is known as the “grounding zone,” or “grounding line.” Grounded ice can also occur in small areas seaward of the grounding line over locally high points in the bedrock."

In my post I referred to an ice shelf being "anchored" on land. The technical term is obviously "grounded." However, it still remains a fact that an extended part of an ice shelf floats on sea water.

A quick check on Google will locate several papers by scientists researching the marine biota, fresh water flows and ice structure below the Ross Ice Shelf.

Finally, the Britannica Online states that the Ross Ice Shelf is the worlds largest body of floating ice, with an area of roughly 185,000 square miles, about the size of the Yukon Territory in Canada.

Regarding Leanan's post:

This was because the land-based ice-sheets were melting in a "non-linear" way – not just melting at a steady rate, but dynamically breaking up as well...

Will the sea level rise be reflected by a bell curve or more of a hockey stick type of graph? I think either way that a rise of 20 feet will occur mostly by 2050. IMO We certainly won't get a slow linear rise over the next 90 years. The general population is so ignorant or naive about GW happenings. And PO knowledge is even less so.

Thanks to all at TOD and those who post

not just melting at a steady rate, but dynamically breaking up as well...

breaking up on land? any reference?

Google "greenland moulins" for 35,000.
Or try "accelerating glaciers" or...
When something is very well reported some
posters do not see a need for a link. Yes, this
can ruffle feathers.

My admittedly incomplete understanding is that ice doesn't have to melt to raise sea level - floating ice raises it just as effectively as melted ice. So if a major body of ice slides off a continent, or if glacier flow abruptly speeds up, thinning continental ice caps, sea level should rise immediately, even if that ice is floating, unmelted, as part of an ice shelf. In other words, I'd guess hocky stick.

It's Nature's Way of telling you something's wrong

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kknbg7xquQ&feature=related